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Markets to make a positive start reacting to assembly results and IIP data

The Indian markets before going for a long weekend made a flat closing with a positive bias. Today, the start is likely to be in green and the traders will be rejoicing the assembly election outcome, which was mostly on the expected lines. A strong election win in the largest state of Uttar Pradesh has raised the probability of the BJP winning the 2019 general elections as well, putting sense of stability among investors. Traders are also likely to get support from the economy front, where the industrial production bounced back into expansion in January, kicking off the financial year’s last quarter on a positive note. The index of industrial production (IIP) rose 2.7% in January from a year ago, the second fastest monthly growth this financial year. However, there will be some cautiousness too, with the RBI warning of a possible spike in inflation and stressing the need to make digital payments “safe and secure”, even as it felt that the adverse and transient impact on the economy has “by and large” dissipated already. Traders will be eyeing the inflation data to be released later in the day for further cues. The banking stocks will keep buzzing, as the Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has discussed options on resolution of bad loans with RBI Governor Urjit Patel and other top officials in finance ministry but creation of a 'bad bank' to hold such loans seemed not on top of alternatives.

Indian benchmarks end marginally higher ahead of assembly elections results

Indian benchmark indices give up most of their early gains to close marginally higher on Friday, amid profit taking in selective frontline stocks. Today’s session largely remained characterized by consolidation as the aimless indices moved only sideways in a tight band ahead of Assembly poll results of five states on Saturday. Sentiments got some support after various exit polls suggested the Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may comfortably cross the majority mark of 202 in the 403-seat UP Assembly, or come close to it. As for other states, most exit polls said the BJP was likely to retain power in Goa and wrest power from the Congress in Uttarakhand. Further, investors got some comfort with the report that the government's revenue collection from indirect tax during April-February grew by an impressive 22.2%, while that of direct tax rose by 10.7%. Total direct and indirect tax collections at February end stood at Rs 13.89 lakh crore, 81.5% of the target of Rs 16.99 lakh crore, as per the revised estimate for 2016-17. 

However, gains remained capped with CRISIL’s report that a revival in private sector investment cycle is likely to be deferred to fiscal 2019 as there is ample headroom in capacity utilization, stretched balance sheets and just a moderate pick-up in demand. In the next fiscal year ending March 2018, CRISIL predicts only a mild recovery due to an absence of fiscal and monetary stimuli and unsupportive global environment. Meanwhile, Telecom stocks gained traction on the report that the government is set to go for 5G spectrum auction this year -making an early move to initiate rollout of latest communications technologies. The government will also go for a fresh auction in 700 MHz band, which drew a blank last year as companies complained of high reserve price. Further, some auto stocks surged after the Vehicle sales across categories registered a marginal increase at 17,19,699 units in February 2017 from 17,03,736 in the same month last year. Domestic passenger vehicle sales rose by 9.01% y-o-y to 255,359 units in February, while Sales of commercial vehicles moved up 7.34% to 66,939 units in February. On the other hand, shares of gold loan companies like Manappuram Finance edged lower after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said NBFCs cannot lend more than Rs 20,000 in cash against gold. Earlier, NBFCs were allowed to disburse high value loans of Rs 1 lakh and above against gold only through cheque.

Asian markets made a mixed closing on Thursday

The US markets closed mostly higher on Monday, as investors refrained from making sizable bets ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting that is widely expected to deliver an interest-rate increase. With no economic data, investors were instead focusing on the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting that kicks off Tuesday. Investors will be eager to glean signals about the timing and pace of future rate increases from the FOMC’s policy statement. The market is pricing in about three rate increases of a quarter of a percentage point each for 2017. The market sees an 88.6% probability that the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee will vote for an interest-rate Wednesday, according to data from the CME Group. Expectations for a rate increase were cemented after solid February nonfarm-payroll data on Friday. According to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released showed that a measure of US inflation expectations mostly flattened in February after having risen in the previous two months. The survey of consumer expectations, an increasingly influential gauge of prices for the US central bank, showed that year-ahead inflation expectations were flat at 3 percent last month. The three-year ahead reading edged up to 3 percent, from 2.9 percent in January.

The Nasdaq was up 14.05 points or 0.24 percent to 5,875.78, S&P 500 gained 0.87 points or 0.04 percent to 2,373.47, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 21.5 points or 0.10 percent to 20,881.48.

January IIP surges to 2.7% against -0.4% in December

In a positive surprise, industrial output rose to 2.7% in January as compared to -0.4% in December. The cumulative growth for the period April-January 2016-17 over the corresponding period of the previous year stood at 0.6 percent.

Govt releases the draft rules for security of prepaid payment instruments

In a bid to make electronic payments more secure, the government has released the draft rules for transactions made through prepaid payment instruments (PPIs) like mobile wallets, smart cards and paper vouchers. The draft IT (Security of Prepaid Payment Instruments) Rules 2017, formulated by the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) will ensure adequate integrity, security and confidentiality of electronic payments effected through PPIs. Till date, these instruments are not governed by norms or rules, as far as cyber security issues are concerned.

As per the draft rules, the PPIs need to ensure end-to-end encryption of the data exchanged. Besides, the e-PPI issuers should assist customers with regard to secure use of the prepaid payment instruments and should have a privacy policy posted on its website.

They will also have to appoint a chief grievance officer, whose contact details will have to be prominently displayed on the website and procedure by which customers or any other person who suffers as a result of violation of these rules can make complaints to the Grievance Officer.

Furthermore, the PPI issuer will also need to establish a mechanism for monitoring, handling and follow-up of any cyber incidents and breaches. The rules also specify that every wallet issuer should review its security measures at least once a year, and after any major security incident or breach, or before a major change to its infrastructure or procedures. The last date for submittingcomments on the draft is March 20.

Indian govt continue to engage with Trump administration on H1B visa issue

In order to ease the worries of Indian professionals over H1B visa, the government has said that the steps taken by the US were aimed at illegal immigration and added that they would continue to engage with both members of the US administration as well as members of the US Congress on their interests and concerns pertaining to not just H1B visa but other issues as well.

Talking on the discussions held between Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar with his interlocutors in the US last week, External Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Gopal Baglay has said that there was a strong recognition as well as respect for Indian skills and contribution of the Indian technological manpower to the US economy. He also said it has been India's view that the presence of skilled Indian professionals is positive for the US economy as well, particularly when the US seeks to build a stronger economy. He pointed out that there are other advantages from the presence of Indian professionals in the US like backward linkages.

Calling the H1B visas a trade and business issue, Baglay further said that their views have been clearly conveyed to the concerned US interlocutors. He also said that the government believes that the plans of the US Administration for the US economy present an opportunity for the two countries to further consolidate their strong economic partnership.

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Events to watch this week

• US employment report beats expectations

• ECB raises inflation forecasts

• China lowers growth target

• Potential second Scottish referendum?

The Week ahead:

• The United States and Canada turn their clocks ahead one hour for daylight saving time on Sunday, 12 March
• China releases retail sales figures on Tuesday, 14 March
• Eurozone industrial production is reported on Tuesday, 14 March
• US retail sales for February are released on Wednesday, 15 March
• The US Federal Reserve meets to set interest rates on Wednesday, 15 March
• The Netherlands holds a general election on Wednesday, 15 March
• The Bank of Japan holds a rate-setting meeting on Thursday, 16 March
• The Bank of England meets to set interest rates on Thursday, 16 March
• The US reports industrial production data on Friday, 17 March

For the week,Global equities were little changed on the week, consolidating recent gains. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note continued to advance this week in anticipation of tighter monetary policy, rising to 2.58% from 2.49% a week ago. Rising US crude oil inventories sent prices tumbling this week. West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $49.25 per barrel from $53 a week ago, while global Brent crude slumped to $52.10 from $55.50. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), was little changed at 11.7.

NIFTY- 8,934.55
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,228barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,337 gram
Rs/$-Rs 66.61

MARKET ROUND UP 
The market ended with small gains last week as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of the key state election results. Investors remained wary ahead of state assembly election results of five states on Saturday, 11 March 2017. Investors were also cautious ahead of a US Federal Reserve meeting next week in which policy makers are widely expected to raise interest rates. 
Negative global cues also weighed on investors trading sentiment. Geopolitical tensions spooked investors after North Korea launched four missiles into the Sea of Japan. Also, China posting a rare trade deficit in February also added to global growth worries.

The Sensex settled a tad below the psychological 29,000 level after flirting with that level during the week.
In the week ended Friday, 10 March 2017, the Sensex rose 113.78 points, or 0.39% to settle at 28,946.23. The Nifty 50 index rose 37 points, or 0.42% to settle at 8,934.55. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 43.45 points, or 0.32% to settle at 13,365.59. The BSE Small-Cap index fell 15.21 points, or 0.11% to settle at 13,604.96.

Macro Economic Front: 
On the Economic Front,On macroeconomic data front, the index of industrial production (IIP) data for January 2017, will be released after market hours on Friday, 10 March 2017. India's industrial production fell by 0.4% year-on-year in December 2016, following a downwardly revised 5.6% growth in the previous month.

On the political front,results of various exit polls released on Thursday, 9 March 2017, showed that ruling party at the Centre, BJP, doing well in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and even Manipur, with the Congress and the AamAadmi Party locked in a tough contest in Punjab. However, the numbers given by the exit polls varied widely, suggesting convergences only in broad trends.
The exit polls predicted a hung assembly in the key state of Uttar Pradesh where BJP would emerge as the largest single party. Most polls also forecast a close fight between the Congress, which is seeking to return to power in Punjab after a hiatus of 10 years. They have predicted victory for BJP in Uttarakhand, but the saffron party, though likely to lead the table in Goa, was projected to fall short of a majority in the tiny coastal state.

In Uttar Pradesh, where five polls India News MRC, Times Now VMR, ABP Lokniti CSDS, India TV-C Voter and India Today Axis showed the BJP as leading the race, the saffron party's projected tally varied from 155 to 279 seats in 202 seats required for simple majority. The SP-Congress tally varied from 88 to 169 seats, while the BSP was shown winning just between 28 and 93 seats.
The exit polls showed Punjab witnessing a tight contest between the AamAadmi Party and the Congress. In Uttarakhand, three polls News 24 Today's Chanakya, India Today Axis and India News MRC showed the BJP winning the State. India TV- CVoter showed both the parties tied at 29-35 seats.

Final results of the elections which were recently held in five states including Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Manipur are due on Saturday, 11 March 2017. For the bulk of legislation to be signed into law, approval from both houses of parliament is required. The BJP and its allies account for 339 of the 545 seats in the lower house, called the LokSabha, but they only hold 73 of the 250 seats in the upper house, or RajyaSabha.

Major Action &Announcement:
State Bank of India (SBI) was the top Sensex gainer last week. The stock rose 2.60% to Rs 272.05. SBI announced after market hours on Thursday, 9 March 2017, that its board will meet on Wednesday, 15 March 2017, to consider inter raising of funds through equity capital by way of follow-on public offer (FPO)/rights lssue/employees share purchase scheme (ESPS) /employee stock option scheme (ESOS)/qualified institutional placement (QIP)/American depositary receipt (ADR)/global depository receipt (GDR) and any other mode or a combination of these at the appropriate time. 

Telecom major BhartiAirtel rose 2.59% to Rs 364.80. BhartiAirtel and Millicom International Cellular SA announced after market hours on Friday, 3 March 2017, that they have through their respective subsidiaries entered into an agreement for Tigo Ghana and Airtel Ghana to combine their operations in Ghana. As per the agreement, Airtel and Millicom would have equal ownership and governance rights in the combined entity.

Reliance Industries rose 1.82% to Rs 1,281.40. A massive bulk deal of 39.61 crore shares representing about 12.2% stake of the company was executed on the scrip at Rs 1,292.05 per share in opening trade on BSE on Thursday, 9 March 2017.

Tata Steel was biggest Sensex loser last week. The stock fell 5.49% to Rs 467.80. The company announced on Tuesday, 7 March 2017, that Tata Steel UK informed employees that it completed the consultation process on a proposal to close the British Steel Pension Scheme to future accrual. During the consultation process the company spoke to more than 4,000 employees at more than 90 face-to-face briefings across the UK. It also received feedback through trade union representatives.

ICICI Bank fell 1.92% to Rs 270.55. The bank announced after market hours on Thursday, 9 March 2017, that the committee of executive directors of the bank approved the proposal for fund raising by way of issuance of Basel III compliant unsecured subordinated perpetual Additional Tier 1 Bonds in single/multiple tranches in any currency through public/private placement on terms as may be decided at the time of issuance.

Global Front: 
In Overseas Markets,Asian markets closed mostly higher, as investors eyed US rate hike next week. China’s central bank governor told a news conference that making monetary policy neutral would help China’s supply-side reforms, reinforcing expectations that liquidity would be relatively tight. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said that China will not devalue its currency to stimulate exports. China’s exports for January and February combined rose 4.0 percent from the same period last year, while imports surged 26.4 percent, suggesting solid improvement in demand domestically and abroad. European markets were trading in green as comments by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi continued to support the markets. 

Global Economic News:

US payrolls rise more than forecast
Nonfarm payrolls rose 235,000 in February, more than economists had forecast. The strong data, along with upward revisions to prior months, have prompted Fed watchers to begin to forecast a faster pace of tightening by the US Federal Reserve. In addition to the potential for more-frequent rate hikes, observers are discussing the prospect of the Fed beginning the process of reducing the size of its balance sheet late in 2017 or early in 2018. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.7%, while the labor participation rate rose to 63%.

ECB signals a lower sense of urgency
European Central Bank president Mario Draghi said this week that deflation risks in the eurozone have “largely disappeared,” as ECB inflation forecasts were raised to 1.7% from 1.3% for 2017 and 1.6% from 1.5% in 2018. In a sign of receding deflation concerns, the ECB dropped from its opening statement the phrase that it is prepared to use “all available instruments available within its mandate.” However, Draghi warned that downside risks remain, particularly around the geopolitical sphere.

China signals slightly lower growth ahead
At its annual meeting of the National People’s Congress, China announced it had trimmed its official economic growth target to 6.5% for 2017 from a range of 6.5%–7% in 2016. Actual growth in 2016 was 6.7%. Also this week, China reported a rare trade deficit. Analysts are wary of data from January and February given the variable timing of the Lunar New Year holiday.

US trade gap widens
The United States reported its largest monthly trade deficit in nearly five years this week. January’s deficit rose 9.6% from December, to $48.5 billion. US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, calling for free and fair trade, said the latest data show that there is much work to be done on trade agreements.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Scottish leader floats notion of second independence vote
Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon says late 2018 could be the best time for a second referendum on independence from the United Kingdom. The timing would coincide with the shape of the UK’s Brexit deal becoming clear, the minister said. Scotland voted in 2014 to remain a part of the UK, but Brexit has set off fresh calls for independence. Further related to Brexit, UK prime minister Theresa May continues to tussle with the House of Lords, with the upper chamber voting to amend the Article 50 bill to force Parliament to vote on the final outcome of the government’s negotiations with the European Union. The bill will now be sent back to the House of Commons, where it is expected to be overturned.

German factory orders hit air pocket
German factories started the year with a thud as new orders plummeted 7.4% in January, the largest drop since the depths of the financial crisis in 2009. Orders rose 5.4% in December and survey data have been strong, so economists warn not to read too much into one month’s data.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:
Monday (13 Mar)
Labor Market Conditions 
Tuesday (14 Mar)
FOMC Meeting Begins & NFIB Small Business
Wednesday (15 Mar)
Consumer Price Index
Thursday (16 Mar)
Housing Starts& Jobless Claims 
Friday (17 Mar)
Consumer Sentiment

Fundamental Pick of the week:
STOCK IN FOCUS 
State Bank of India (SBI) closed 1.2% higher, outperforming benchmark NIFTY, which closed flat.SBI has been able to deliver relatively better operating performance compared to its peers despite elevated stress in balance sheet.
We believe that the Bank has been able to clean-up its loan book effectively, which reasonably assures us that it will continue to surprise positively on operating and asset quality fronts from FY18E onwards.
Further, we believe that demonetization drive will also have positive impact on SBI’s performance.
We reiterate our BUY recommendation on the stock with an SOTP-based Target Price of Rs320.

Indian Market Outlook:
NIFTY OUTLOOK:

Nifty traded with mix sentiments in last session due to profit booking at higher levels from traders. However, it recovered well from lower levels in second half of the session. Next important support seen at 8830 level.Nifty likely to trade with sideways sentiments in last session on profit booking at higher levels from traders. Nifty likely to trade with sideways sentiments and 8880 at lower side will be the trend deciding level for intraday session. Higher side resistance seen at 9000 levels. However, some profit booking at higher levels may limit the upside in NIFTY. Applying momentum Indicator RSI for 14-day period trading at level of 63.88 indicates that it is trading near over bought zone and may face resistance at higher levels. 

TECHNICAL VIEW:

Nifty Spot View 
Bullish above 8995 for a move towards 9033/9080 Exit Poll results will be came out. Low made today was 8899 and high made was 8946 so both bulls and bears were not able to break the range we mentioned. Plan remains the same short below 8890 gann angle support for a move towards 8850/8780/8720 and long above 8895 break gann angle for a move towards 9033/9080/9120. Nifty will open with huge gap on Monday and can hit a new life highs, but does it mean that we blindly go long, As a matter of fact on May 16 when BJP got majority in LokSabha we closed marginally in green after an upmove of more than 6%.

Conclusion:
Nifty hovered in a narrow range for the entire week and settled marginally in green, citing caution ahead of the states election results. Amid all, rotational buying in select index majors helped index to sustain at higher levels.
Next week, markets will initially react to the outcome of state election results and IIP data. Going ahead, the two-day US Fed meet will also remain on the participants’ radar.