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Bikaji Foods competes with Haldiram’s, the market leader in traditional savouries and snacks in India. Owners of Haldiram's are related of the promoters of Bikaji Foods. Bikanerwala Foods, Balaji Wafers, Prataap Snacks, DFM Foods, Pepsi and ITC are the other players in the segment.

With just a few days to go until the opening of COP27 of the UNFCCC, and with every day marked by multiple climate disasters in some part of the world or other, developing and vulnerable countries are set to put the spot light on their demand to the rich world to deliver on the promised and new climate finance to help them mitigate, adapt, and survive.

In the lead is the V20 group of finance ministers, who have announced their intent to stop payment on a combined $685 billion in debt until the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank address Climate Change the way their nations see fit. Their goal is to create a plan to swap some of their debt for climate adaptation and conservation projects.

Formed in 2015, the V20 group of finance ministers is a dedicated co-operation initiative of 58 economies systematically vulnerable to Climate Change. It is currently chaired by Ken Ofori-Atta, Finance Minister of the Republic of Ghana.

The UN Conference on Trade and Development research shows that regions facing higher vulnerability to Climate Change are more likely to suffer from severe indebtedness. High debt payments mean countries have fewer resources for mitigating and adapting to Climate Change. Yet Climate Change is increasing their vulnerability, and that can raise their sovereign risk, increasing the cost of borrowing. Declining productive capacity and tax base can lead to higher debt risks. It’s a vicious cycle.

With the economic situation worsening in all developing economies countries, international organisations are talking about “debt-for-climate swaps” to help tackle both problems at the same time. UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed mentioned debt-for-climate swaps ahead of COP27 as one option for refinancing countries’ “crippling” debt. Developed economies could write off a developing economy’s debts, unburdening them of repayments and interest, allowing them to redirect the money towards supporting their own loss, and damage costs.

A report by the European Network on Debt and Development (Eurodad) said 37 island and coastal countries that are home to some 65 million people, received just $1.5 billion in climate finance between 2016 and 2020. Over the same period, 22 of the nations paid more than $26.6 billion to their external creditors. Public debt levels in the island states had risen from an average of near 66 percent of gross domestic product in 2019 to nearly 83 percent in 2020, and were set to remain above 70 percent until 2025.

The average debt for low- and middle-income countries, excluding China, reached 42 percent of their gross national income in 2020, up from 26 percent in 2011. For countries in Latin America, and the Caribbean, the annual payments just to service that debt averaged 30 percent of their total exports.

One thing is clear, without substantial debt relief, debtor countries are forced to accelerate natural resource exploitation to pay the debt, side-lining these environmental ambitions, and hindering future economic security. It is, therefore, imperative to align debt restructuring with climate and development goals.

Debt-for-climate swaps allow countries to reduce their debt obligations in exchange for a commitment to finance domestic climate projects with the freed-up financial resources.

They have been used since the late 1980s to preserve the environment and address the liquidity crisis in developing countries, including Bolivia, Costa Rica, and Belize. Belize, for example, was able to lower its debt in exchange for committing to designate 30 percent of its marine areas as protected areas, and to spend $4 million a year for the next two decades on marine conservation under a complex debt-for-nature swap. While debt-for-nature swaps have been used mostly for conservation, the same concept could be expanded to Climate Change mitigation and adaptation activities.

A country’s debt rests with many creditors, ranging from multilateral funds to other countries. Each would have to be engaged and negotiated with to excuse the outstanding debt making difficult calls on which country receives debt relief first, and on what basis.

Some finance experts have suggested that debt-for-climate swaps could be structured in a way that could also encourage private-sector bond holders to exchange the national debt they hold for carbon offsets.

Debt cancellation mechanisms may bring relief to developing nations that are struggling with the impacts of Climate Change. However, rushing into such an ambitious policy could be disastrous without a rigorous feasibility study, and careful planning. Any agreement to cancel debt would likely require the excusing parties to be assured that the money will reach the most vulnerable communities on the ground and not be swallowed up by corruption or internal bureaucracies.

India's services sector picked up pace in October as the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for last month edged up from September's six-month low.

Data released on November 3 by S&P Global showed the services PMI rose to 55.1 in October from 54.3 in September.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion in activity while a sub-50 print signals contraction.

The October print is the 15th month in a row that the services PMI has come in above the key level of 50.

"Favourable demand for services continued to underpin increases in new business and output at the start of the third fiscal quarter. Moreover, rates of expansion quickened from September's six-month lows. Buoyed by the ongoing recovery in new work, service providers again took on extra staff, with an improvement in business confidence also supporting hiring activity," S&P Global noted.

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The price of commercial liquid petroleum gas (LPG) cylinders was slashed by Rs 115.50 on November 1. A 19-kg commercial LPG cylinder will now cost Rs 1,744 in the national capital.

This is the first price fluctuation in commercial LPG cylinder prices by oil marketing companies (OMCs) since the prices were last raised in May. OMCs usually announce LPG price change at the beginning and middle of each month.

There is no change in the price of the 14.2 kg domestic LPG cylinder, which now cost Rs 1,053, as per the price notification from state-owned fuel retailers.

The price of a 19-kg commercial cylinder will now be Rs 1,846 in Kolkata, Rs 1,696 in Mumbai and Rs 1,893 in Chennai. You can look for the price in each city and district here.

Meanwhile, CNBC Awaaz reported that OMCs may also cut petrol and diesel prices by 40 paise from November 1.

According to the report, a reduction in oil prices by 40 paise is likely to occur daily for the next five days. That will bring a total reduction of Rs 2 in petrol and diesel prices in instalments.

OMCs suffer losses

Indian Oil Corporation had on October 29 reported a net loss of Rs 272.35 crore for the July-September quarter (Q2) despite booking over Rs 10,800 crore of government LPG subsidy, on the back of selling petrol, diesel below cost.

The net loss of Rs 272.35 crore compares to a profit of Rs 6,360.05 crore in July-September 2021, according to a company's filing with the stock exchanges.

The decline comes on the back of a Rs 1,992.53-crore loss incurred in the previous April-June quarter. This is the first time that IOC has booked losses in two straight quarters as it sold petrol, diesel and cooking gas (LPG) at rates below cost.

IOC, as well as other state-owned fuel retailers, had booked heavy losses in the first quarter of the current fiscal and did not revise petrol, diesel and cooking gas LPG prices in line with the cost to help the government contain runaway inflation.

The three firms, who are supposed to revise petrol and diesel prices daily in line with the cost, did not change rates for over six-and-half-months now – the longest freeze in rates since fuel pricing was deregulated.

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The unscheduled meeting  of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) called on November 3 will likely be a non-event for the markets in the near term, but for the long term this meeting can lay down some healthy precedents.

First, the near-term impact. A section of the market fears that an unscheduled meeting can always include a mid-term rate action. I beg to differ. The press release announcing the meeting makes it clear this meeting has been called only because the MPC has failed to achieve its mandate of keeping inflation between 2 percent and 6 percent for three quarters in a row.

The press release says an additional meeting of the MPC is being scheduled on November 3 under the provisions of Section 45ZN of the RBI Act, and Regulation 7 of the RBI Monetary Policy Process Regulations. Section 45ZN was included in the RBI Act in 2016, by the amendments which created the MPC, and gave it the mandate to keep inflation within bounds decided by the government (currently 2-6 percent).

Two Provisions

Section 45ZN is titled: Failure to maintain inflation target, and states, ‘Where the Bank fails to meet the inflation target, it shall set out in a report to the Central Government — (a) the reasons for failure to achieve the inflation target; (b) remedial actions proposed to be taken by the Bank; and (c) an estimate of the time-period within which the inflation target shall be achieved pursuant to timely implementation of proposed remedial actions.’

The other provision under which the meeting is called is Regulation 7 of the MPC Regulations. Regulation 7 is titled: Process to be followed in the event of a failure to meet the inflation target. The clause reads: ‘The Secretary to the Committee shall schedule a separate meeting as part of the normal policy process to discuss and draft the report to be sent to the Central Government under the provisions of Section 45ZN of the Act. The Report shall be sent to the Central Government within one month from the date on which the Bank has failed to meet the inflation target. The Bank shall send the report to the Central Government in the event of a failure to achieve the target as specified by Rules of the Central Government, in this regard.’

From the above two clauses it is clear that this meeting has been called only to draft the report to the government to explain why the MPC failed to keep inflation under 6 percent for three quarters. The September CPI number was announced on October 12. Coming at 7.41 percent, it became the ninth consecutive month of the CPI over 6 percent. Now, as per Regulation 7, the RBI has to send its explanatory report to government in one month, i.e. by November 12.

Timing Of The Meeting

The market’s worry stems in part from the timing of the meeting. Why didn’t the committee meet earlier? Why only a day after the FOMC meeting.

Here’s why: Immediately after October 12, the top brass of the RBI was away in Washington to attend the IMF-World Bank meetings. Then came the Diwali holidays. Hence the first week of November.

The day after the FOMC meet, is most likely a coincidence. The November 1-2 FOMC meeting dates were known well in advance, and the fact that it will most likely be a 75 bps hike was also known on September 22, when the US Fed published its dot-plot. Which means, the RBI and the MPC were aware, during their September 30 meeting that the US Fed would hike rates by 75 bps in November. Why call an unscheduled meeting to react to known data.

Also the inflation in the latest US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data — the measure that the US Fed follows for setting rates — came in at 5.1 percent, a tad lower than the 5.2 percent anticipated by the street. This is expected to make the US Fed confirm that it will step off the 75 bps hikes rhythm, and slow to a 50 bps hike in December. If that is the case, again, why should the RBI call for an unscheduled meeting? In any case the PCE data came on October 28, after the RBI had put out the November 3 meeting press release. Finally, the RBI and the MPC members have re-iterated that they don’t let external events influence their rate action. The rates are set to respond to domestic inflation only.

Therefore, to repeat, the MPC won’t take any rate action at its November 3 meeting. The meeting will merely discuss the report to be sent to government explaining reasons why CPI could not be kept below 6 percent for nine months. In all probability, this part of the report is easy to guess. The RBI will refer to the supply side constraints due to COVID-19, and the Ukraine war. It may also argue that inflation in most other countries is running way above their targets. The US CPI has been at 8-10 percent in 2022, versus a mandate of 2 percent. Likewise for the Eurozone, and the United Kingdom.

Point C

As for remedial measures, the RBI is again on firm ground: it can state that it has mostly rolled back excess liquidity provided during the pandemic, and even front-loaded the rate hikes. It may well say with some certainty that inflation will fall below its tolerance band of 6 percent by March.

For me the most interesting part is the point ‘c’ of the Section 45ZN, as per which the RBI has to state by when inflation will fall to ‘target’. This means the RBI will not only have to say when the CPI falls below 6 percent, but when it will come down to 4 percent — the given target. The governor has said in some interviews that this may take up to 2024. But it will be interesting to see what the RBI writes in the official report.

This report would have been more important if the MPC members, especially the external members, are extremely upset by the failure to keep the CPI within the mandate. Then one would have expected fiery rate hikes. But the last minutes of the MPC show that at least two members — Jayant Varma and Ashima Goyal — are the most dovish of the six. Varma is actually asking for rate hikes to stop at 6 percent. This also demolishes any speculation that there may be a rate hike on November 3.

Long Term Impact

The bigger question is, will the report be made public. The RBI Governor has stated that the contents are privileged, and meant for the government only. So, to be sure, the RBI won’t release the report. It will be interesting to see if the government releases the report.

Herein lies the long term impact of the November 3 meeting. The government making the report public will greatly add to transparency, and will be a healthy convention for the future. If the report is not divulged, the market will continue to speculate on its contents, and it may get volatile. It can raise doubts about the RBI’s independence, and the efficacy of the entire inflation-targeting mandate. Divulging the contents of the report can lead to a healthy debate on whether the RBI and the MPC were behind the curve, and hence missed their mandate, or whether they were sensible in not getting bogged down by the letter of the law, but give more weight to the macro realities of weak growth due to an unprecedented pandemic.

Hence, in the near term, for the markets, the November 3 meeting is likely to be a non-event. But in the long term, it can be an occasion to establish some healthy precedents.

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The unscheduled meeting  of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) called on November 3 will likely be a non-event for the markets in the near term, but for the long term this meeting can lay down some healthy precedents.

First, the near-term impact. A section of the market fears that an unscheduled meeting can always include a mid-term rate action. I beg to differ. The press release announcing the meeting makes it clear this meeting has been called only because the MPC has failed to achieve its mandate of keeping inflation between 2 percent and 6 percent for three quarters in a row.

The press release says an additional meeting of the MPC is being scheduled on November 3 under the provisions of Section 45ZN of the RBI Act, and Regulation 7 of the RBI Monetary Policy Process Regulations. Section 45ZN was included in the RBI Act in 2016, by the amendments which created the MPC, and gave it the mandate to keep inflation within bounds decided by the government (currently 2-6 percent).

Two Provisions

Section 45ZN is titled: Failure to maintain inflation target, and states, ‘Where the Bank fails to meet the inflation target, it shall set out in a report to the Central Government — (a) the reasons for failure to achieve the inflation target; (b) remedial actions proposed to be taken by the Bank; and (c) an estimate of the time-period within which the inflation target shall be achieved pursuant to timely implementation of proposed remedial actions.’

The other provision under which the meeting is called is Regulation 7 of the MPC Regulations. Regulation 7 is titled: Process to be followed in the event of a failure to meet the inflation target. The clause reads: ‘The Secretary to the Committee shall schedule a separate meeting as part of the normal policy process to discuss and draft the report to be sent to the Central Government under the provisions of Section 45ZN of the Act. The Report shall be sent to the Central Government within one month from the date on which the Bank has failed to meet the inflation target. The Bank shall send the report to the Central Government in the event of a failure to achieve the target as specified by Rules of the Central Government, in this regard.’

From the above two clauses it is clear that this meeting has been called only to draft the report to the government to explain why the MPC failed to keep inflation under 6 percent for three quarters. The September CPI number was announced on October 12. Coming at 7.41 percent, it became the ninth consecutive month of the CPI over 6 percent. Now, as per Regulation 7, the RBI has to send its explanatory report to government in one month, i.e. by November 12.

Timing Of The Meeting

The market’s worry stems in part from the timing of the meeting. Why didn’t the committee meet earlier? Why only a day after the FOMC meeting.

Here’s why: Immediately after October 12, the top brass of the RBI was away in Washington to attend the IMF-World Bank meetings. Then came the Diwali holidays. Hence the first week of November.

The day after the FOMC meet, is most likely a coincidence. The November 1-2 FOMC meeting dates were known well in advance, and the fact that it will most likely be a 75 bps hike was also known on September 22, when the US Fed published its dot-plot. Which means, the RBI and the MPC were aware, during their September 30 meeting that the US Fed would hike rates by 75 bps in November. Why call an unscheduled meeting to react to known data.

Also the inflation in the latest US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data — the measure that the US Fed follows for setting rates — came in at 5.1 percent, a tad lower than the 5.2 percent anticipated by the street. This is expected to make the US Fed confirm that it will step off the 75 bps hikes rhythm, and slow to a 50 bps hike in December. If that is the case, again, why should the RBI call for an unscheduled meeting? In any case the PCE data came on October 28, after the RBI had put out the November 3 meeting press release. Finally, the RBI and the MPC members have re-iterated that they don’t let external events influence their rate action. The rates are set to respond to domestic inflation only.

Therefore, to repeat, the MPC won’t take any rate action at its November 3 meeting. The meeting will merely discuss the report to be sent to government explaining reasons why CPI could not be kept below 6 percent for nine months. In all probability, this part of the report is easy to guess. The RBI will refer to the supply side constraints due to COVID-19, and the Ukraine war. It may also argue that inflation in most other countries is running way above their targets. The US CPI has been at 8-10 percent in 2022, versus a mandate of 2 percent. Likewise for the Eurozone, and the United Kingdom.

Point C

As for remedial measures, the RBI is again on firm ground: it can state that it has mostly rolled back excess liquidity provided during the pandemic, and even front-loaded the rate hikes. It may well say with some certainty that inflation will fall below its tolerance band of 6 percent by March.

For me the most interesting part is the point ‘c’ of the Section 45ZN, as per which the RBI has to state by when inflation will fall to ‘target’. This means the RBI will not only have to say when the CPI falls below 6 percent, but when it will come down to 4 percent — the given target. The governor has said in some interviews that this may take up to 2024. But it will be interesting to see what the RBI writes in the official report.

This report would have been more important if the MPC members, especially the external members, are extremely upset by the failure to keep the CPI within the mandate. Then one would have expected fiery rate hikes. But the last minutes of the MPC show that at least two members — Jayant Varma and Ashima Goyal — are the most dovish of the six. Varma is actually asking for rate hikes to stop at 6 percent. This also demolishes any speculation that there may be a rate hike on November 3.

Long Term Impact

The bigger question is, will the report be made public. The RBI Governor has stated that the contents are privileged, and meant for the government only. So, to be sure, the RBI won’t release the report. It will be interesting to see if the government releases the report.

Herein lies the long term impact of the November 3 meeting. The government making the report public will greatly add to transparency, and will be a healthy convention for the future. If the report is not divulged, the market will continue to speculate on its contents, and it may get volatile. It can raise doubts about the RBI’s independence, and the efficacy of the entire inflation-targeting mandate. Divulging the contents of the report can lead to a healthy debate on whether the RBI and the MPC were behind the curve, and hence missed their mandate, or whether they were sensible in not getting bogged down by the letter of the law, but give more weight to the macro realities of weak growth due to an unprecedented pandemic.

Hence, in the near term, for the markets, the November 3 meeting is likely to be a non-event. But in the long term, it can be an occasion to establish some healthy precedents.