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India has worked on fundamentals, but problems needs to be addressed: IMF

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The International Monetary Fund said though India has worked on the fundamentals of its economy, there are problems, including the long-term drivers of growth, that need to be addressed.

The IMF on Tuesday trimmed India's growth forecast by 90 basic points to 6.1 per cent. This is second downward revision in seven months and in total 120 basis points reduction. 100 basis points is equal to one percentage point.

"India has worked on the fundamentals (of its economy), but there are problems to be addressed. In the financial sector, especially non-banking institutions, there are steps taken now to consolidate banks. They ought to help resolve some of these issues," IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters at a news conference here.

"In India, what is critically important is to continue with addressing the long-term drivers of growth. Investment in human capital in India is a top priority. It has to continue bringing women in the labour force. It is very important. India has very talented women, but they stay at home," she said.

Georgieva said there has been "a very strong growth" in India over the last years and the IMF is projecting reasonably strong growth for the country.

However, "like the rest of the world, India is experiencing a slowdown. So slightly over six per cent is what we expect to see in 2019", she said.

"Structural reforms are priority for India. We expect to see those reforms continue," Georgieva said in response to a question.

Govt may look to cut stake in BHEL, NMDC

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The government may consider bringing down its stake in state-owned Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) and National Mineral Development Corporation (NMDC), sources told CNBC Awaaz.

The stake in BHEL may be pared in tranches to 26 percent from 63.17 percent now.

An inter-ministerial group is expected to meet soon to discuss the stake sale.

The government may also look to sell the state-run power player's non-manufacturing units to private players.

Four to five units of BHEL are reportedly marked for sale to private players this fiscal.

Earlier this month, the government cleared disinvestment in five PSUs, a move which is expected to cover nearly 60 percent of its disinvestment target for this financial year.

The government has a divestment target of Rs 1.05 lakh crore for the current financial year. In both FY18 and FY19, the divestment proceeds exceeded the target of Rs 1 lakh crore and Rs 80,000 crore, respectively.

PMC Bank scam | SC agrees to urgent hearing of PIL

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The Supreme Court has agreed to an urgent hearing on the public interest litigation filed in regards to the Punjab and Maharashtra Cooperative Bank case, as per a CNN-News18 report.

The petitioner, identified as Bijon Mishra, has sought the full protection of over 15 lakh affected bank customers and 100 percent insurance cover over their savings with the institution, the channel added.

The RBI had issued directions to PMC Bank on September 23, restricting basic banking services like cash withdrawals. Initially, the limit was set at Rs 1,000 per depositor. The regulator also appointed an administrator and three-member advisory committee to oversee the bank’s operations after its board was superseded.


The multi-state cooperative bank came under fire for fraud and misreporting of bad loans. The lender was also found to have violated the RBI’s group exposure norms. Its exposure to the realty firm Housing Development & Infrastructure (HDIL) is being investigated by the authorities including the Economic Offences Wing.

Forensic Auditors, appointed by the bank’s administrator, are also looking into the related transactions, the RBI said.

“The Reserve Bank is closely monitoring the developments and shall continue to take necessary steps in the interest of the depositors of the bank,” the regulator said.

Last week, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman met with the bank’s customers on her visit to Mumbai. She said she spoke to the RBI governor, who had assured that customers' concerns would be addressed as the top priority. The central bank's board that met in Chandigarh also discussed the existing regulatory framework of cooperative banks among other issues.

Brokerages raise target price in these 3 stocks post Q2 results

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The Indian market has been witnessing volatility in the last few session as the earnings season kicked off for the Indian Inc. Concerns over US-China trade deal, stressed financial sector and expectation of a further stimulus by the government have also added kept investors on their toes.

Analysts expect the earnings to remain tepid this quarter. Meanwhile, some of the companies have already declared their earnings for the quarter ended September 2019.HUL, Infosys and Avenue Supermarts are the three companies which got a pat on the back from the brokerages after their Q2FY20 results.

Avenue Supermarts

D-Mart operator, Avenue Supermarts posted a 47.54 percent year-on-year jump in its net profit at Rs 322.63 crore, while revenue increased 22.26 percent to Rs 5,998.90 crore. Its EBITDA rose 32.3 percent to Rs 515.4 crore and EBITDA margin was up 8.66 percent.

ICICIdirect reiterated reduce rating on the stock with a revised target price to Rs 1,700 from previous target price of Rs 1,450.

On the back of recent corporate tax rate cut, it revises earnings estimates upwards by 15 percent.

Hindustan Unilever

FMCG major Hindustan Unilever (HUL) registered 21 percent year-on-year jump in its net profit at Rs 1,848 crore. Its EBITDA was at Rs 2,443 crore, up 21 percent. The domestic consumer segment of the company grew by 7 percent with underlying volume growth at 5 percent.

Prabhudas Lilladher retained it accumulate rating but raised the target to Rs 2,083 from Rs 1,967 per share.

It has cut company's FY20 and FY21 EPS by 1.1 percent and 2.6 percent despite 5 percent volume growth and strong margin expansion on account of delayed rural recovery despite good monsoons, limited scope to increase margins from the current level and liquidity issues in trade channels.

ICICIdirect maintained its hold rating on stock with a target price of Rs 2,075.

Broking house feels that the company is best placed within the sector to use this windfall to balance between strengthening its competitive position and improving profitability.

Infosys

The company reported a 5.8 percent sequential growth in Q2FY20 with its net profit at Rs 4,019 crore. Revenue during the quarter rose 3.8 percent QoQ to Rs 22,629 crore, while in dollar terms revenue rose 2.5 percent at $3,210 million.

KR Choksey has reiterated accumulate rating on Infosys and revised target price to Rs 893 per share (previous target Rs 792) with an upside potential of 10 percent.

The brokerage house expects the company to continue this momentum

going forward as it plans to invest heavily in the expansion of digital segment in the areas like Data Analytics, Cloud computing and IoT.

ICICIdirect has maintained its hold rating on the stock with a revised target price of Rs 885.

It expect revenue growth to moderately surpass the upper guided band and margins are likely to see an improving trajectory from here on . They expect margins to expand to 23 percent in FY21E.

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Forex - Pound Gives Up Some Gains; U.K., EU Inch Closer to Brexit Deal

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The British pound gave back some gains on Wednesday in Asia after gaining overnight. A Bloomberg reported that the U.K. and European Union are close to agreeing on a legal draft of a Brexit deal.

The GBP/USD pair was down 0.2% to 1.2755 by 12:18 AM ET (04:18 GMT).

The pound spiked yesterday after European Michel Barnier said a draft legal text was being drawn up, and that an agreement “is still possible this week.”

“Our team(s) are working hard, and work has just started now today, this work has been intense over the weekend and yesterday, because even if the agreement will be difficult, more and more difficult, to be frank, it is still possible this week,” Barnier told reporters in Luxembourg on Tuesday morning.

He added that “any agreement must work for everyone,” saying it is “high time to turn good intentions into a legal text.”

The deal however is dependent on Prime Minister Boris Johnson getting support from the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party, which is uncertain. The two sides are racing to reach a deal before the Oct. 31 deadline, but remain optimistic that an agreement will be made by the end of Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index last was little changed at 98.042.

Tensions between the U.S. and China flared up again after the U.S. House passed four measures, including the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act”, on Tuesday in unanimous voice votes.

A similar bill is in front of the Senate.Beijing has threatened to retaliate if Congress passes a bill.

The USD/CNY pair gained 0.2% to 7.0964.

On the data front, the U.S. retail sales data are set to be released later in the day and are forecast to increase for a seventh straight month.

China will release third-quarter GDP, September industrial production and retail sales data on Friday.

The AUD/USD pair lost 0.3% to 0.6731. The USD/JPY pair dropped 0.2% to 108.63.


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Job alert | Govt to employ 3.75mn women across villages for water testing, says Smriti Irani

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The newly formed Jal Shakti Ministry will create 3.75 million jobs for women across the country.

Speaking at the Bloomberg Equality Summit, Smriti Irani, Union Minister of Women and Child Development and Textiles, said the government’s mission is to employ five women each across 750,000 villages to be trained to ensure water quality, maintain water hygiene and turn water into an enterprise.

“Under the Jal Shakti Ministry, there will be massive employment generation for women in the districts identified. At present, we have found water-related challenges in 256 districts. We are involved in training women across these districts,” she added.

On female labour-force participation

India has a female labour force participation rate of 27 percent, which is among the lowest in the world. Talking about steps to improve this scenario, Irani said the government is taking a series of initiatives to empower women.

“One of the biggest challenges for women was access to credit. Through the Jan Dhan Yojana, about 199 million women (out of 370 million accounts) have had their bank accounts opened in the last five years. Similarly, there were 200 million loans disbursed as part of the Mudra scheme. Of this, around 70 percent beneficiaries were women,” she added.

The idea, she said, is to empower women at the grass root level. Talking about an older initiative when Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the Chief Minister of Gujarat, Irani said he had encouraged villages to come as one unit and vote for women leaders in local Panchayats. Wherever women were elected as representatives, those villages got additional government funding.

On formal jobs, Irani said the government has increased the maternity leave to 26 weeks, and it was now the responsibility of companies to ensure that these women are not left behind when it comes to promotions.

In male-dominated professions, Irani said the number of women employed is seeing an increase. Citing the example of chartered accounts, Irani said that from the late 1940s (when Institute of Chartered Accountants of India was set up) till 2014, India only had 50,000 female chartered accountants. "However, that number rose to 75,000 between 2014 and 2019, and is estimated to touch 150,000 over the next five years."

When prodded on the government’s future focus areas, Irani said the unorganised sector has been a cause of concern, despite the higher female labour force participation, as they offered lesser medical benefits and pay.

On safety and health

Irani said the primary objective of the government is to ensure the safety of women and children. "The government has funded setting up of 1,023 fast track courts where all the pending cases relating to safety of women and child can be expedited."

Going forward, she said the government's focus will be on dealing with crimes against women in a more stringent manner. “The perception was that an all women police station was an answer to every challenge. However, we are working towards ensuring that every police station in our country has desk exclusively manned only for the safety of women in that district/area.”

On healthcare, the Women and Child Development Minister said the Ayushman Bharat (health insurance) scheme has ensured that women who have otherwise been reluctant to seek medical care do so without any hesitation.

Under this scheme, the government aims to provide health insurance cover of Rs 5 lakh to 50 crore Indians free of cost. This includes families from lower income groups that fall under the socio-economic caste census (SECC) data of 2011.

Citing data, Irani said that within a year of the health insurance scheme’s launch, 530,000 women have been tested for cervical cancer and 300,000 for breast cancer and are being treated.

Forex - Yuan Trades Lower Amid Renewed Trade Concerns

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 The Chinese yuan traded lower against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday in Asia after a Bloomberg report sparked fresh concerns on the Sino-U.S. trade talk progress.

Risk appetite improved late last week after the U.S. and China announced a “roadmap to a phase 1 agreement” which included the suspension of a tariff increase planned for this week and a commitment from China to buy more U.S. agricultural product.

But the Chinese yuan gave up some of its earlier gains today as Beijing reportedly said it wanted more talks before agreeing to the deal, suggesting that not all the details are nailed down.

China now wants to hold more negotiations this month before agreeing to signing the deal, a Bloomberg report said, citing people familiar with the matter.

The USD/CNY pair gained 0.2% to 7.0726 by 1:00 AM ET (05:00 GMT)

“We will carefully remind you that such a “promise” is worth nothing at all, and currently it looks more likely that running for president on an anti-Chinese agenda is better/smarter (for re-election purposes) than doing the opposite,” Martin Enlund and his analyst team at Nordea Markets wrote in a weekly preview.

On the data front, China reported on Tuesday that its producer price index fell by 1.2% year-on-year. It marked the steepest factory price decline July 2016, but was in line with expectations.

The consumer price index (CPI) increased 3% year-on-year in September, compared with the expectation of a 2.9% gain. Pork prices in China jumped 69.3% from a year ago. It is the major driver in the overall increase in CPI.

The country also reported weaker-than-expected trade data this week, which showed the sharpest drop in imports since 2016.

The U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies last traded at 98.137, down 0.03%.

The USD/JPY pair inched down 0.1% to 108.32.

The AUD/USD pair and the NZD/USD pair were both little changed.

The GBP/USD pair rose 0.2% to 1.2629. Brexit developments remained in focus after the European Union showed some cool reaction to the U.K.’s proposals on resolving the Irish border-related elements of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement.

The EU’s top negotiator Michel Barnier reportedly told EU diplomats at the weekend that the proposals represented an “untested” risk that were not acceptable, according to The Guardian.


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Forex - Pound Falls Despite Renewed Brexit Hopes; Dollar Rises Amid Trade Progress

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The British pound fell against the U.S. dollar on Monday in Asia despite renewed Brexit hopes. The greenback inched up amid positive trade progress with China.

The GBP/USD pair lost 0.3% to 1.2614 1:25 AM ET (05:25 GMT). The pound rose on Friday amid signs of a possible agreement on the Irish border problem.

Reports suggested that the U.K. had conceded that the province of Northern Ireland would remain in the EU customs area immediately after Brexit – a move that would satisfy EU concerns about the integrity of its border.

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he thought there was a way forward for a Brexit deal with the European Union, adding that “there is work to be done.”

Meanwhile, the yuan gained today after the U.S. paused its plan to impose more tariffs on Chinese goods this week. The USD/CNY pair lost 0.5% to 7.0538.

On the data front, China’s U.S. dollar-denominated exports were down 3.2% in September, slightly more than expected. Imports also fell more than analysts’ forecast, customs data showed on Monday.

That left China with a trade surplus of $39.65 billion in September, compared with a $34.84 billion surplus in August.

Analysts previously expected exports to decline by 3%, while imports were expected to drop by 5.2%.

China will release third-quarter GDP, September industrial production and retail sales data on Friday.

The U.S. dollar index inched up 0.1% to 98.123. According to the partial trade deal Washington and Beijing reached late last week, Beijing will make large agricultural purchases worth as much as $50 billion and take steps on intellectual property, financial services and the yuan.

The USD/JPY pair inched down 0.1% to 108.31.

The AUD/USD pair and the NZD/USD pair lost 0.1% and 0.3% respectively.

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Dollar holds near two-and-a-half-month yen high on U.S.-China partial deal, pound stands tall

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 The dollar held near a 2 1/2-month high against the yen on Monday after Washington and Beijing announced progress toward a trade deal, while sterling hovered near a three-month peak on hopes for an orderly British exit from the European Union.

On Friday, the dollar strengthened against the safe-haven yen to as much as 108.63 yen , its highest level since August 1, before U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States and China had reached a 'Phase 1' trade deal.

It pared those gains after Trump announced the agreement, covering agriculture, currency and some aspects of intellectual property protections.

In early Asian trade on Monday, the dollar inched down to 108.36 yen against the yen, while the euro stood at $1.1025 (EUR=) versus the greenback, off Friday's three-week high of $1.10625.

Tokyo's market is closed for a public holiday on Monday, so trading volumes are likely to lighter than usual.

The trade deal "looks more symbolic than substantial, and might be better described as simply an 'interim trade war truce,'" said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank.

"This Phase 1 agreement, if inked, does little to immediately brighten the outlook for global trade and growth. While it shouldn't prevent the Fed from agreeing to cut rates by another quarter point on Oct. 30, it doesn't provide a firm pretext for significant or sustained U.S. dollar depreciation."

The deal represents the biggest step between the United States and China in a 15-month trade dispute. Friday's announcement did not include many details and Trump said it could take up to five weeks to get a pact written. He acknowledged the agreement could fall apart during that period, though he expressed confidence that it would not.

STERLING

The British pound surged on Friday to as high as $1.2708 , its strongest level since July 1, and a five-month peak of 86.955 pence per euro (EURGBP=D4), on optimism about orderly Brexit.

The pound was last down 0.38% at $1.2600 in Asia.

The EU agreed on Friday to hold another round of intense negotiations with London in a bid to break the deadlock and secure a deal before the Oct. 31 deadline.

EU negotiator Michel Barnier and his British counterpart Stephen Barclay earlier held what both sides called a "constructive" meeting in Brussels. The British and Irish prime ministers said on Thursday they had found "a pathway" to a possible deal, and by Friday some officials were expressing guarded optimism.



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India's industrial production falls 1.1% in August

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India’s industrial output contracted by 1.1 percent month-on-month (MoM) in August, according to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data released by the government on August 9.

Industrial output, or factory output, is the closest approximation for measuring economic activity in the country's business landscape.

Manufacturing output, which accounts for more than three-fourths of the entire index, fell 1.2 percent in August, against a 4.2 percent rise in July.

Mining grew 0.1 percent in August against a growth of 4.9 percent in July.

For the April-June period, the eight infrastructure sectors averaged 3.6 percent growth. Exports contracted 1.7 percent during the same period.

India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the March quarter slowed to a five-year low of 5.8 percent, down from 6.6 percent in the December quarter. Annual GDP growth slowed to 6.8 percent for the year that ended on March 31 from 7.2 percent in the previous year.

Factory output, which is measured by the index of industrial production (IIP), contracted in March 2019. This was its first such contraction in 21 months, showing declining momentum of both investment and consumption. Even core industries productions of steel, electricity, coal and cement are falling or have been stagnant in recent quarters.

The national income data have reinforced signs that were emanating from a slew of shop-end data, such as car and consumer goods sales, often seen as proxy indicators to gauge trends in household spending.

To combat the slowdown, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman  announced a cut in corporate tax rates in September, bringing it down to 22 percent from 30 percent for existing companies, and to 15 percent from 25 percent for new manufacturing companies.

Earlier this year, the International Monetary Fund cut India’s gross domestic product growth forecast for 2019-20 by 20 basis points to 7.3 percent, followng similar action by the Asian Development Bank and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

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