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India's July petrol imports hit highest in at least eight years

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India's July crude oil imports declined from a year earlier, while petrol imports climbed to their highest since at least April 2011, data from the oil ministry's Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) showed on Wednesday.

Crude oil imports into the world's third-largest consumer declined 1.2% from a year earlier to 19.34 million tonnes, but increased 14.6% from the previous month.

Petrol imports rose to 230,000 tonnes in July, the highest since PPAC data going back to 2011.

Government data published earlier this month showed sales of gasoline, or petrol, were 8.8% higher from a year earlier at 2.52 million tonnes.

LNG imports, meanwhile, fell to their lowest since February 2018 at 850,000 tonnes.

India's imports of crude oil have stalled in recent months, with both coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) also soft. This could be attributed to Indian refiners adjusting to the loss of cargoes from Iran after the United States did not extend waivers to buyers of Iranian crude beyond the beginning of May.

Meanwhile, imports of oil products rose by about 9% from a year earlier to 2.81 million tonnes. Year-on-year exports fell 5% last month to 5.07 million tonnes, the data showed.

Exports in Naphtha fell to their lowest since October 2015 at 400,000 tonnes.

Free trade agreements under review

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The news comes when India is in talks for a Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) which was proposed by the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) as the biggest trade proposal. It has 16 participating countries and was expected to conclude this year.

The review will decide the future of RCEP along with other FTAs. The report pointed out that the government is also targeting to increase the share of manufacturing in the economy to 25 from about 16 percent (at current prices) by 2022.

Another reason to assess the current trade arrangement was given by tax authorities who have seen imports being brought from FTA route-- to save on raised custom duties. It sometimes beat the idea of tariffs discouraging import of certain goods. Moreover, imports from non-FTA nations could claim treaty benefits if got from the FTA route.

Large companies could have been violating these rules which undermines the swadeshi movement under Make in India.

This week, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India had also filed a petition on behalf of Indian palm oil producers against increased imports from Malaysia hurting the domestic market. They claim that lower custom duties under the Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) have negatively impacted domestic production and sales. A probe has been initiated after the complaint.

The review will help the country implement better trade pacts if they hurt domestic manufactures.

Gold technical analysis: Drops to multi-day lows, back below $1500 handle

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  • Gold edged lower through the mid-European session on Monday and slipped below the key $1500 psychological mark to hit multi-day lows in the last hour.
  • Sustained weakness below 200-hour SMA - coinciding with 23.6% Fibo. level of the $1400-$1535 upsurge - was seen as a key trigger for intraday bearish traders.

Meanwhile, technical indicators have been gaining negative traction on hourly charts and support prospects for an extension of the corrective slide back towards testing last week's swing lows - around the $1483-81 region - nearing 38.2% Fibo. level.
 
However, oscillators on the daily chart maintained their bullish bias and might continue to attract some dip-buying interest, which might help limit further downside ahead of Wednesday's important release of the latest FOMC policy meeting minutes.Failure to defend the mentioned support might prompt some follow-through technical selling and accelerate the slide further towards $1475 intermediate support en-route 50$ Fibo. level - around the $1467-65 region amid fading safe-haven demand.

 
On the flip side, the $1500-10 region (23.6% Fibo. level and 100-hour SMA) now seems to act as an immediate resistance, which if cleared might accelerate the up-move towards $1522 intermediate resistance before the commodity aims back towards multi-year tops.


Gold 1-hourly chart

fxsoriginal

XAU/USD





OVERVIEW
Today last price1498.82
Today Daily Change-14.78
Today Daily Change %-0.98
Today daily open1513.6
 
TRENDS
Daily SMA201463.04
Daily SMA501420.56
Daily SMA1001355.11
Daily SMA2001317.2
LEVELS
Previous Daily High1527.65
Previous Daily Low1504.2
Previous Weekly High1534.4
Previous Weekly Low1481
Previous Monthly High1452.72
Previous Monthly Low1382.02
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1513.16
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1518.69
Daily Pivot Point S11502.65
Daily Pivot Point S21491.7
Daily Pivot Point S31479.2
Daily Pivot Point R11526.1
Daily Pivot Point R21538.6
Daily Pivot Point R31549.55

Forex - Dollar Hovering Near 3-Week Highs ahead of Fed Minutes

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The U.S. dollar was hovering just below three-week highs in subdued trade on Wednesday as investors looked ahead to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting later in the day for fresh clues on the monetary policy outlook.

The Fed cut rates for the first time since 2008 last month in what Chairman Jerome Powell called a “mid-cycle adjustment.” Financial markets are still expecting further rate cuts before the end of the year against a background of heightened trade tensions and slowing growth.

The minutes come ahead of the central bank's annual Jackson Hole seminar later this week, where Powell is to give an eagerly awaited speech on Friday. His comments are of particular interest after last week's inversion of the U.S. yield curve - widely regarded as a recession signal - boosted expectations the Fed would cut rates again at its September meeting.

The U.S. dollar index against a basket of six major currencies edged up 0.12% to 98.17 by 03:05 AM ET (07:05 GMT) after shedding 0.2% overnight.

The index had climbed to 98.33 on Tuesday, its highest since Aug. 1, as U.S. yields bounced from multi-year lows at the week's start on signs global policymakers were ready to step up stimulus support to stave off a steep economic downturn.

U.S. yields, however, declined overnight on the prospect of more easing by the Fed.

Takuya Kanda, general manager at Gaitame.Com Research Institute, believes U.S. President Donald Trump's "strong desire for deep rate cuts" may raise hopes among some traders of strong easing signals at Jackson Hole. But he also warned that Powell may opt to give little away in his speech as the Fed prepares for next month's meeting.The dollar rose 0.34% to 106.58 yen reversing a part of the previous day's losses, while the euro was a touch lower at 1.1089 having put on 0.2% overnight.

The single currency dipped briefly after Italy's Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced his resignation on Tuesday.

"Conte's resignation won't have a strong impact on the euro in the longer run as it is only a chapter in the ever-shifting Italian politics," said Kanda at Gaitame.Com Research.

In addition to the Fed, the euro also has to contend with the possibility of the European Central Bank easing policy in September.

The Bundesbank said on Monday that the German economy may have continued to shrink over the summer as industrial production declined. That would mean the euro zone's biggest economy is now in recession following the second quarter's decline reported last week. Recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth."Germany in recession would generate a strong buzz, and there is no doubt that economic conditions in the zone would force the ECB to take its next policy steps," said Daisuke Karakama, chief market economist at Mizuho Bank.

Sterling was down 0.24% to 1.2138, giving back some of the previous sessions gains.

The British pound rose after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the European Union would think about practical solutions regarding the post-Brexit Irish border.

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Forex - U.S. Dollar Flat; Euro Also Little Changed as Italy’s PM quits

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 The U.S. dollar was near flat on Wednesday in Asia, while the Euro was also largely unchanged as Italy’s Prime Minister quit.

The U.S. dollar index that tracks a basket of other currencies was little changed at 98.107. A gathering of central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming and a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell are expected to be major directional drivers for the U.S. currency.

The Fed will release minutes of its July policy meeting minutes due later in the day. In July, the central slashed rate for the first time since the financial crisis.

The euro was also near flat after Italy’s Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said he is resigning ahead of no-confidence vote.

The latest reports suggested that it is unclear if snap elections would be called or if parliament would be asked to try and form a new government.

The safe-haven Japanese yen fell against the U.S. dollar even as stock markets traded lower amid concerns on a slowing global economy. Uncertainties surrounding the U.S.-China relations also affected market sentiment, as U.S. President Donald Trump said he had to “take China on” even if it would cause short-term impact on U.S. economy.

"Somebody had to take China on," Trump told reporters during a White House visit by Romanian President Klaus Iohannis. "This is something that had to be done. The only difference is I am doing it," he said.

"China has been ripping this country off for 25 years, for longer than that and it's about time whether it's good for our country or bad for our country short term. Long term it's imperative that somebody does this," he said.

The AUD/USD pair inched up 0.4% to 0.6778. The NZD/USD pair slipped 0.1% to 0.6407.

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Gold Price and Silver Outlook Remains Constructive So Far

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GOLD & SILVER PRICE TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:

  • Gold pullback may deepen, but constructive so far
  • Silver has support not too far away to keep it bid

For an intermediate-term fundamental and technical viewpoint, see the Q3 Gold Forecast.

GOLD PULLBACK MAY DEEPEN, BUT CONSTRUCTIVE SO FAR

Last week, gold ran into major long-term resistance by way of lows created following the 2011 spike-high, and the volatile price action last Tuesday cemented the bottom of the 1522/75 zone as a legitimate ceiling.

The decline so far has been subtle with little to no change since a week ago, a bullish development thus far. Gradual, stubborn declines following sharp run-ups into resistance are considered a good thing; it shows buying interest even at a hint of weakness.This doesn’t mean something won’t further spur gold along to the downside, but as long as it doesn’t turn outright aggressive, then weakness will be treated only as a correction within an ongoing bull-move that began since the wedge-breakout in June.

A good spot for would-be longs is the trend-line running up from late May in the vicinity of 1450/60. A decline and hold there would offer enough room back up to the resistance zone for a good risk/reward swing-trade with potential to turn it into something much larger if a breakout above 1575 were to develop.

For now, gold is still close to a major zone of resistance and at risk of correcting further or at least moving sideways for a bit longer. This takes some shine off of fresh longs, but doesn’t invoke much confidence in shorts given the generally strong nature of gold.

Check out the IG Client Sentiment page to see how changes in trader positioning can help signal the next price move in gold and other major markets and currencies.

Silver price action is similar to gold, constructive so far despite last Tuesday’s volatile session. There is good support by way of a couple of directions. There is the 2003 trend-line that once acted as resistance, then there is the trend-line from July rising up near current levels. Sideways price action has silver looking like it wants to maintain and build on the rally that began at the end of May.RESOURCES FOR FOREX & CFD TRADERS

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Forex - Euro Tests Lows Ahead of Expected No-Confidence Vote in Italy

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The dollar was little changed in early trading in Europe Wednesday but starting to build momentum against the euro at the start of a day where politics is likely to dominate economics.

The euro was at $1.1079 by 3:30 AM ET (0730 GMT) and looking to test last week’s low of $1.1066 ahead of a big day in the Italian parliament. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte is due to speak in the afternoon and is expected to resign ahead of a no-confidence vote that has been called by the right-wing Lega party, the junior member of the governing coalition. While both the Lega and its partner the 5 Stars Movement appear to have given up on continuing their government, it is far from clear what might follow if the no confidence vote succeeds.

Snap elections are one possibility, but it is also possible that President Sergio Mattarella will ask the parties in parliamment to form a new government. Theoretically, the 5 Stars Movement and the traditional center-left Democratic Party are capable of forming a majority that could pass a budget for the coming year and perhaps take the sting out of the country’s budget dispute with the European Union. However, that would require the two parties to set aside a good deal of past animosity toward each other.

Economics are also against the euro at present, after the Deutsche Bundesbank warned in its monthly report on Monday that it expects a second straight quarter of contraction in the summer, meaning that the euro zone’s traditional engine room would be in recession for the first time in a decade.

The euro was, however, strengthening against the pound after Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s latest initiative on Brexit underlined the distance between the U.K. and EU positions on how to manage the Irish border in future. In an open letter to EU Council President Donald Tusk, Johnson again reiterated the desire for freedom to diverge from the EU’s regulatory standards in the long term, a prospect which the EU has always said will require border and customs checks to be introduced.

The pound was at 1.0927 against the euro, down 0.3% from late Monday and apparently resuming its slide, ending a short-covering rally that was triggered by hopes that lawmakers would strike a cross-party agreement to block a No-Deal Brexit.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, was up less than 0.1% at 98.257.

Elsewhere, EUR/CHF remained well offered as the backdrop of the global slowdown forces the unwinding of carry trades and raises demand for haven currencies. Analysts note that sight deposits in the Swiss banking system have been rising at an accelerating pace over the last four weeks, something they say strongly suggests intervention by the Swiss National Bank to slow the franc’s rise. At 1.0854 to the euro, it has risen nearly 10% in the last 16 months, most of that appreciation coming in the last four months.

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Euro to Pound Sterling Exchange Rate Climbs as Sterling Support Wears Off

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Euro to Pound Exchange Rate Gains as Sterling Tumbles from Rebound

Speculation that Germany’s government and the European Central Bank (ECB) could take efforts to head off a potential German recession had a mixed impact on the Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate to climb today.

Following last week’s fall of almost two pence from 0.9313 to 0.9131, EUR/GBP has rebounded just slightly this week so far.

EUR/GBP trended closer to the level of 0.9164 at the time of writing today, resuming its attempts to advance after dipping overnight.

Investors have been buying the Euro to Pound exchange rate due to Pound (GBP) weakness, but there could be more notable movement on major data due later in the week.

Euro (EUR) Exchange Rates Mixed amid Stimulus Speculation

While the Euro (EUR) was supported slightly on Monday by speculation that Germany was preparing fresh fiscal stimulus to boost its economy, European Central Bank (ECB) speculation weighed on the Euro today.

ECB official Olli Rehn said that the bank was determined to act if Eurozone inflation continued to fall short of the 2.0% inflation target. He said:

‘Despite the stronger labour market and accelerating wages, inflationary pressures remain muted, and indicators of inflation expectations have declined with the weakening economic outlook,’

While the ECB’s actions could also help to avoid a damaging recession in Germany or other Eurozone nations, expectations for even looser Eurozone monetary policy left the Euro less appealing.

Pound (GBP) Exchange Rates Tumble Back ahead of Fresh Brexit Talks

The Pound (GBP) saw a surge in demand towards the end of last week, as UK economic and political fears that had worsened for weeks finally lightened slightly.

Hopes that Britain’s opposition parties could cooperate to oust the UK government and prevent a no-deal Brexit accounted for much of last week’s Pound recovery.

However, while those hopes persist, fears that a no-deal Brexit could become reality under the current government are keeping significant pressure on the Sterling and UK outlooks.

This week, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to hold fresh talks with EU officials, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron.

Hopes that Johnson would accept a renegotiation of the political declaration while leaving the agreement itself alone were doused by a letter Johnson sent to European Council President Donald Tusk yesterday.

This caused fresh no-deal Brexit concern and weighed on the Pound today.

Euro to Pound (EUR/GBP) Exchange Rate Awaits Further Political News and Data

Euro to Pound (EUR/GBP) exchange rate investors have had little major to react to this week so far. As the Euro is steadying stimulus speculation and the Pound is edging lower amid continued Brexit fears, the pair awaiting more influential news.

This week’s UK data will be fairly low influence, with public borrowing data due tomorrow and CBI’s distributive trades report on Thursday. Sterling investors are more likely to react to potential Brexit developments.

The Euro is also more likely to drive EUR/GBP, with multiple notable Eurozone ecostats due for publication on Thursday.The Eurozone’s August PMI projections from Markit will be published and are expected to weaken even further following months of slowdown. Eurozone consumer confidence stats from August will be published on Thursday as well.

Of course, any fresh comments from Eurozone or European Central Bank (ECB) officials on potential monetary or fiscal stimulus could also influence the Euro to Pound (EUR/GBP) exchange rate.

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Developers urge higher cap in metros for affordable housing segment

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The National Real Estate Development Council (NAREDCO) has recommended to the ministry of finance that the upper price limit in the definition of affordable housing for metro cities be raised from the current Rs 45 lakh to Rs 1 crore, DNA has reported.

Since land and construction cost come at a premium especially in metros, the council has sought relaxation of the norms by amendments to the Real Estate (regulation and development) Act, 2016.

This imperative amendment would bring more locations and projects under affordable housing, benefiting investors, a NAREDCO spokesperson told the daily.

Confederation of real estate developers' associations of India (CREDAI) has also on its part recommended amendment of RERA in view of soaring property prices.

Currently, to avail credit subsidy benefits for affordable housing, a home must be priced at less than Rs 45 lakh and not exceed 60 sq metre carpet area or about 850 sq ft built-up area, including overall loading.

The affordable housing segment has seen rising demand which has been aided by lower goods and services tax (GST). As per a report by Livemint, this segment has emerged as the sweet spot for both builders and buyers, even in the current slowdown.

Canadian Dollar Price Forecast: USD/CAD Rise at Risk of Failing

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USDCAD TECHNICAL HIGHLIGHTS:

  • USDCAD rise marked by grinding price action, may fail
  • May fail, but still need to respect channel in the meantime
  • Specific levels and lines to watch in the days ahead

USDCAD RISE MARKED BY GRINDING PRICE ACTION, MAY FAIL

The U.S. Dollar has been rallying against the Canadian Dollar since last month, but the rise in USDCAD hasn’t been particularly strong and has slowed even further in recent sessions. Sluggish price action suggests a break to the downside could soon be in the works.

But before jumping the gun on shorts, the near-term upward technical structure still remains in place and needs to be snapped before sellers can start to gain the upper hand. Watch for a break of the lower parallel and a lower-low to unfold under last week’s low at 13184 (4-hr chart). Should this happen then a larger decline could be in store.

The initial target on a breakdown clocks in at the 2012 trend-line and July low (just above 13000), which should be in near confluence at the time price would arrive (daily chart). A decline to that point would be a very important test. Not only is it a long-term trend-line, but a failure to hold could lead to a sharp sell-off similar to 2017 as the grind higher since that year fully gives way to selling (weekly chart).

On the top-side, if the USDCAD can continue to maintain the channel, or at the least maintain its higher-high, higher-low form, then the next major obstacle beyond 13344 is the trend-line running down off the 2016 peak.

FOREX & CFD TRADER RESOURCES

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