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Events to watch this week

• Potential health care loss could hinder Trump agenda
• United Kingdom to trigger Article 50 on March 29
• Banks soak up last of ECB’s cheap loans
• Eurozone showing signs of accelerating growth
• BOJ chief says stimulus here to stay

The Week ahead:

• The United Kingdom and Europe set clocks ahead one hour for daylight savings time on Sunday, 26 March,
• The UK is expected to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty on Wednesday, 29 March
• The United States reports revised Q4 gross domestic product figures on Thursday, 30 March
• Japan reports inflation data and unemployment figures on Friday, 31 March
• China releases purchasing managers’ indices on Friday, 31 March
• The UK releases revised Q4 GDP figures on Friday, 31 March
• The eurozone reports consumer inflation data on Friday, 31 March

For the week,Global equities slipped this week amid concerns that the Trump administration’s promised pro-growth policy agenda may become bogged down as GOP lawmakers struggle to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare. US 10-year Treasury note yields fell 10 basis points from a week ago to 2.41%. West Texas Intermediate crude slumped to $47.80 from $49.25 last Friday and global Brent fell to $50.60 from $52.00 as US production continued to build. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), rose to 12.4 from 11.2..

NIFTY- 9,108.00
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,149 barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,805 gram
Rs/$-Rs 65.42

MARKET ROUND UP

Key benchmark indices edged lower as investors pocketed some cash on profit booking after the recent surge helped Nifty hit record closing high on the last session of previous week. Key indices fell in three out of five sessions of the week. Indices staged some recovery towards the closing sessions of the week after witnessing drubbing during the initial few sessions.

The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, fell 227.59 points or 0.76% at 29,421.40. The Nifty 50 index shed 52.05 points or 0.56% at 9,108.

The BSE Mid-Cap index shed 0.31%. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.46%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

Macro Economic Front:

On the Economic Front,India's current account deficit (CAD) at $7.9 billion (1.4% of GDP) in Q3 of FY 2017, was higher than $7.1 billion (1.4% of GDP) in Q3 of FY 2016 and $3.4 billion (0.6% of GDP) in the preceding quarter. The data was released by government after market hours on 23 March 2017.

Despite a slightly lower trade deficit on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, the CAD widened primarily on account of a decline in net invisible receipts. Net services receipts moderated on a y-o-y basis, primarily owing to the fall in earnings from software, financial services and charges for intellectual property rights.

Major Action &Announcement:

Axis Bank dropped 5.38%. The bank in a clarification issued before market hours on Wednesday, 22 March 2017, stated that the information on the bank's MD & CEO Shikha Sharma's resignation is false, speculative and is being circulated with the malafide intention of misleading the investors and the general public.

Cipla declined 0.63%. In its clarification on media reports titled USFDA issued import alert on Cipla'sTadalafil drug made at Bhagwanpur unit, Cipla during market hours on Friday, 24 March 2017 said that the company neither directly or indirectly imports for sale or sell Tadalafil tables in US market nor has not authorised any third party for it. Cipla is not associated with referenced import alert of Tadalafil product or its source at Bhagwanpur site at Uttaranchal for the US market, the company said. Accordingly, this event has no impact on Cipla, it added.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries shed 0.48%.AlmirallS.L, and the company announced the validation of the regulatory filing of tildrakizumab with the European Medicines Agency (EMA) by Almirall. Tildrakizumab is an investigational IL-23p19 inhibitor being evaluated for the treatment of moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis. The announcement was made during market hours on Friday, 24 March 2017.

BhartiAirtel declined 1.85%. The company announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement with Tikona Digital Networks (Tikona) to acquire Tikona's 4G business including broadband wireless access (BWA) spectrum and 350 sites, in five telecom circles for about Rs 1600 crore. The announcement was made after market hours on Thursday, 23 March 2017.

NTPC rose 2.53%. The company said that the second unit of 800 megawatts (MW) of Kudgi Super Thermal Power Station of 2400 MW has been commissioned. With this, the commissioned capacity of Kudgi Super Thermal Power Station, NTPC and NTPC group has become 1600 MW, 42977 MW and 49943 MW respectively. The announcement was made during market hours on Thursday, 23 March 2017.

FMCG major, Hindustan Unilever (HUL) fell 0.25%. HUL announced that it has commenced the commercial production in its new manufacturing unit at Assam on 15 March 2017. The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 21 March 2017. The company had earlier informed about setting up new manufacturing unit in Assam to augment the production capacity of personal care products of the company.

Global Front:

In Overseas Markets,US Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected without accelerating its timeline for future tightening. The Fed raised its benchmark lending rate a quarter point and continued to project two more increases this year. Fed said that it would raise the benchmark federal-funds rate to a range between 0.75% and 1%.

Global Economic News:

May sets date for beginning Brexit process
British prime minister Theresa May this week set 29 March as the day that the United Kingdom will notify the European Union of its intent to leave the EU, beginning the two-year period set out in Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty for negotiating the terms under which the UK will exit. The negotiations are expected to be thorny because the EU is loath to give the UK a “good” deal for fear of prompting additional EU members to quit.

European banks take up more cheap loans than expected
Eurozone banks took up more super-cheap loans than expected from the European Central Bank’s Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operation (TLTRO) this week. A total of €223.5 billion of the zero percent four-year loans were placed, far in excess of the €125 billion economists had expected. In a sign of policy normalization, the ECB announced last month that this would be its last TLTRO operation.

European economy extends uptick
Flash purchasing managers’ indices jumped to their highest level in nearly six years today as the eurozone composite PMI rose to a robust 56.7. Economists extrapolate from that data that gross domestic product growth is growing at a rate in excess of an annualized 2%. The euro strengthened on the data, as well as on hopes that a centrist candidate will derail populist Marine Le Pen in the upcoming French presidential elections.

BOJ to stick to stimulus
Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda said today that there is no reason to withdraw monetary stimulus now, or to raise the bank's bond yield target, since inflation remains well below the BOJ’s 2% goal. Recent upticks in Japanese growth and inflation have raised questions as to whether the central bank could alter its super-easy monetary policy. For now, those questions can be been laid to rest.

Brazil buffeted by meat scandal
Exports of Brazilian meat have plummeted in the wake of a food safety scandal. The meat products are now banned in China, Japan, Mexico and the European Union, while the United States has redoubled food safety inspections, according to the US Department of Agriculture. In an operation dubbed “Weak Flesh,” dozens of Brazilian food inspectors have been arrested for ignoring expired or adulterated processed foods in recent weeks.

Tighter Chinese liquidity eyed
Tightening liquidity conditions in China’s banking system are raising concerns that economic growth could be negatively impacted as the year progresses. Recently, China has been taking steps to rein in its shadow banking system amid fears that the property market could overheat. Chinese iron ore futures tumbled 19%, the largest weekly decline on record, as the People’s Bank of China introduced fresh borrowing curbs on home lending.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Markets fear health care failure could crimp Trump’s clout
After delaying a scheduled vote on the American Health Care Act on Thursday, lawmakers have set a vote for late Friday despite apparently still not having enough votes to assure passage. If passed, the bill would be sent on to the Senate for its consideration. Observers grew concerned this week that if the Trump administration fails to advance one of its signature agenda items straight out of the gate that it may also struggle to pass market-friendly items like tax reform and infrastructure investment later in the Congressional session. A protracted fight on health care, at a minimum, would push those pieces back on the legislative calendar, delaying their economic impact. The failure to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act would likely diminish the new administration’s political capital.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:

Monday (27 Mar)
Week Bill Announcement

Tuesday (28 Mar)
Consumer Confidence

Wednesday (29 Mar)
Pending Home Sales

Thursday (30 Mar)
Natural Gas Report

Friday (31 Mar)
Consumer Sentiment

Fundamental Pick of the week:

Buy Glenmark Ltd For Target Rs.970.00

Glenmark Pharma reversed after taking support of its long-term moving average 200-day SMA and also its intermediate rising trend line.

* Positive cross-over in key technical indicators from their oversold zone is signaling that stock is on verge of turnaround and soon it will resume the uptrend.

* On the higher side, the stock will face hurdles around its multiple highs, which are placed in the range of Rs950-970.

* In case of major decline, recent swing low (i.e. Rs872) will work as key reversal point for the stock.

Indian Market Outlook:

Market on March 17, 2017

The Nifty traded with a bullish bias and scaled above the 9100 mark on a closing basis. A bigger picture shows that the Nifty held on to the trend line drawn from the previous swing lows. On the hourly chart, it has formed an impulse on the upside, which suggests that the larger upside potential is still intact. The range of 8980- 9000, which had earlier acted as a resistance zone, is now providing support to the Index. On the weekly chart, the Nifty has posted a negative close. Nevertheless, it can be taken as a part of a higher degree fifth wave on the upside. The short-term and medium-term targets on the upside are 9230 and 9500, respectively. 

TECHNICAL VIEW:

Other technical observations

Last Week we gave Chopad Levels  of 9150, Nifty gave Short entry on Monday which  did 2 target on Downside by Wednesday.Nifty for a single session was not able to close below the Chopad level of 9150 suggesting Bulls were under pressure from start of the week.  LetsAnalyze how to trade Nifty as we are approaching March Expiry and Financial Year closing.

Conclusion:

Nifty settled marginally lower in the passing week, tracking mixed cues. Majority of the sectoral pivots traded inline with the benchmark and failed to post any meaningful gain.

In the coming week, we expect Nifty to consolidate further within 9000-9300 band; however, volatility will inch higher on stock specific front due to expiry of March month derivatives contracts.

Considering all, traders should focus more on the trade management part and avoid over leveraging. Investors, on the other hand, should use this phase to gradually add quality stocks on every dips.

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Indian equity markets commenced the week on a sluggish note as the benchmarks showcased an unenthusiastic performance on Monday and settled with moderate cuts of over quarter percent. Marketmen turned cautious over the Centre's future reform policies in view of appointment of Yogi Adityanath as the Chief Minister of the country's most populous state. The MP from Gorakhpur, who lacks administrative experience, was unanimously elected the BJP legislature party leader at a meeting of the newly elected MLAs, in a move that took many by surprise. Sentiments remained subdued with a report that the all India Consumer Sentiments Index, measured by the BSE and CMIE, has hit a one-year low at 92.25 compared to 99.65 a year ago. This comes even as the wholesale price index based inflation jumped up to a 39-month high of 6.55%. However, losses remained capped with the report that the Cabinet approved four bills to implement a planned Goods and Services Tax (GST) bills, paving the way for Prime Minister NarendraModi to implement the landmark tax reform from July. The four bills are likely to be taken up by Parliament this week and a separate state GST bill in state assemblies later. Some support also came with the report that the implementation of GST is likely to be fiscally neutral and its impact on inflation is expected to be less than 20 basis points. Further, India has begun the process of dismantling some of the last remaining controls in the foreign direct investment (FDI) framework. The department of economic affairs (DEA) has floated a draft Cabinet note for inter-ministerial consultation to scrap the Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB), in line with a plan announced by finance minister ArunJaitley in his February 1 budget.

The benchmark got off to a sedate opening tracking the dismal leads prevailing in Asian markets following Wall Street's declines and the G20's decision to drop a pledge to avoid trade protectionism. Thereafter, the indices traded in tight range below neutral line with moderate losses for most part of the session. Finally, the NSE Nifty, took a cut of over quarter percent to settle below the crucial 9,150 support level, while BSE Sensex slipped by over hundred points and closed above the psychological 29,500 mark.

Asian markets made a mixed closing on Monday

Asian equity markets ended mixed on Monday following Wall Street's decline and the G20's decision to drop a pledge to avoid trade protectionism, while the Federal Reserve's less hawkish-thanexpected comments continued to weigh on the dollar. Chinese stocks bucked the weak trend to close higher, as gains among energy stocks offset declines in the realty sector. China's property market picked pace in February despite the government announcing a raft of measures to temper speculative demand, data showed on Saturday. Japanese markets were closed for the Vernal Equinox holiday.

US markets closed mostly lower on Monday

The US markets closed mostly lower on Monday, as investors were reluctant to make big bets without major economic or corporate news. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said that the Federal Reserve is on track to raise interest rates twice more this year after a policy tightening last week and it could be more or less aggressive depending on inflation and fiscal policies from the Trump administration. The public comments from Evans were among the first since the US central bank lifted its policy rate a notch last week, as expected. It also forecast roughly two more moves in 2017 in a nod to low unemployment and some inflation pressures. Evans, who is a voter on the Fed’s policy-setting committee this year and supported last week’s move, also echoed a comment from Fed Chair Janet Yellen that suggested the central bank could try to push inflation, now at 1.7 percent, above a 2-percent target. Evans added that while that level of growth could be reached in any given year, he said it was hard to imagine given the economy is already doing well, the labor market is very strong, and sectors like automobile sales are at all-time highs. There is room to get inflation up to 2 percent and in fact going beyond 2 percent a little bit to make sure we get there, and that it’s a symmetric inflation objective.

On the economy front, the Chicago Fed national activity index rose more-than-expected last month. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago said that Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 0.34, from -0.02 in the preceding month whose figure was revised up from -0.05.

MARKET SYNOPSIS

* Yesterday, NSE-NIFTY witnessed sharp decline in the initial trade and later spent entire session oscillating in narrow range. Finally after registering high of 9,168 and low of 9,116 levels closed the day at 9,127 mark with loss of 33 points.

* NSE Cash segment has reported turnover of Rs22,650crore as compared to Rs31,890 crore earlier.Overall market breadth turned negative, where 787 stocks advanced against 860 declined stocks.

* Mixed trend was observed across all the sectoral indices during the day, where none of the sectoral indices reported gain of more than 0.5%. However, IT index emerged as a top loser with the decrease of 1.1%. 

NSE-NIFTY OUTLOOK

NSE-NIFTY slipped to three day low as index failed to continue prior daily up-trend. As mentioned earlier, our technical view will remain positive on NIFTY, but some decline or sideways movement cannot be ruled out before index resumes the uptrend and records fresh high, as (i) negative market breadth, (ii) overbought indicators and (iii) lack of positive trigger in market are signaling the same. On the lower side, NIFTY will find immediate support around break-out line (i.e. placed around 9,120 level) and in case of further fall, psychological mark-9,000 will continue to work as key support level. On the higher side, index major resistance observed around 9,200 and then at 9,500 levels.

As for the day, support is placed at around 9,050 and then at 9,000 levels, while resistance is observed at 9,170 and then around at 9,220 levels.