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Japanese ‘Nikkei’ leads Asian stocks higher as US indices close flat with all eyes on the Fed policy meet next week

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Indian Indices: Asian indices opened in the green as US Dollar’s weakness saw Japanese stocks rally with the Nikkei up over 200 points on opening bell. The week has seen profit booking globally as investors price in a rate hike expected by the Federal Reserve on the March 15. Oil prices closed below US $ 50 for the 1st time in 2017 and the trend looks weak going ahead with supply overhang hurting prices.


Nifty closed flat on Thursday as the investors awaited the exit polls later in the evening. With the exit polls indicating a clear BJP victory in UP and at least 3 other states, expect short covering to see the Nifty hit 9000. Also, as results are due on Saturday will see bears scramble for cover when markets reopen on Tuesday after the holiday for ‘Holi’ on Monday. For today expect Banks, IT and Auto stocks witness fresh buying as investors join the rally.


The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 28977.31, up by 48.18 points or 0.17% after trading in a range of 28968.27 and 29076.63. There were 17 stocks advancing against 13 stocks declining on the index.The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.07%, while Small cap index was up by 0.37%.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 8941.85, up by 14.85 points or 0.17% after trading in a range of 8935.80 and 8975.70. There were 32 stocks advancing against 19 stocks declining on the index.

MARKET INDICATORS

·           

 

Group ATopGainers

 

 

Company

Price (Rs)

% chg

Jindalstel

124.20

5.03

IIFL

381.50

4.49

Escorts

512.00

2.97

GodrejInd

494.25

3.43

Group ATopLosers

 

 

Muthootfin

340.20

-3.21

Hathway

37.25

-1.84

Religare

218.00

-1.58

Manappura

91.80

-3.16

INDEX PERFORMANCE

 

 

Indices

Support

Resistanes

Sensex

28830

29010

Nifty

8890

8950

 


Technical view: Nifty finds strong support around 8880-8920 while 9000 which was the resistance on the upside looks set to be breached. Bank Nifty also saw 20450 act as strong support while 21000 will act as initial resistance on the upside.


 

Trading ideas: GlaxoSmithKline Consumer (Buy above Rs 5300 for Target of Rs 5450 and SL at Rs 5225): After consolidating for over 5 weeks, the stock has broken out from a rectangle pattern. The price outburst has been accompanied with impressive surge in volumes. GlaxoSmith has also convincingly closed above the 100-DMA. Other momentum oscillators too are suggesting that the current up move is likely to build further.


Derivative Snippets: Nifty ATM/OTM call and put strikes saw some buying interest for 3 rd day in a row, as the implied volatility and open interest continue to rise. Markets will remain volatile ahead of the state election results.  

FIIs were net buyers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs 487 crore.


FII’s index future long/short ratio at 3x vs 3.3x. From the start of this F&O series, the long short ratio of Index options stands below 1x as they continue to maintain short positions.


Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were Ultratech Cement up by 1.23%, Hero MotoCorp up by 1.05%, Infosys up by 0.94%, Tata Power up by 0.79% and HCL Technologies up by 0.79%. On the flip side, Power Grid down by 1.67%, Tech Mahindra down by 1.35%, BPCL down by 1.15%, Grasim Industries down by 1.04% and Hindalco down by 0.87% were the top losers.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:  The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Capital Goods up by 0.59%, IT up by 0.56%, TECK up by 0.48%, Industrials up by 0.36% and Realty up by 0.34%, while Oil & Gas down by 0.56%, Energy down by 0.37%, Utilities down by 0.25%, PSU down by 0.16% and Power down by 0.13% were the losing indices on BSE.

 

On the global front: On the global front, Asian shares were trading mostly in green, and the dollar rose to 1-1/2-month highs versus the yen ahead of the US non-farm payrolls report due later in the day. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said that China will not devalue its currency to stimulate exports. China’s exports for January and February combined rose 4.0 percent from the same period last year, while imports surged 26.4 percent, suggesting solid improvement in demand domestically and abroad.

 

Global Signals:The Asian markets were trading mostly in green; Shanghai Composite increased 0.38 points or 0.01% to 3,217.13, KOSPI Index increased 6.41 points or 0.31% to 2,097.47, Hang Seng increased 9.86 points or 0.04% to 23,511.42 and Nikkei 225 increased 275.07 points or 1.42% to 19,593.65.

On the other hand, Taiwan Weighted decreased 30.77 points or 0.32% to 9,627.84, Jakarta Composite decreased 18.19 points or 0.34% to 5,384.20 and FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI decreased 1.99 points or 0.12% to 1,715.43.

 

Why you should Learn Forex Trading?

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Trading Forex is not as easy as many people will tell you. A simple instance will help you to understand the complex nature of Forex trading. In stock market traders find it difficult to keep track of individual companies then it is quite easily understandable how difficult it will be to keep track of the economy of a country. In Forex trading you have to have to do exactly that. You have to keep track of the economy of the countries whose currencies you are trading. So it is evident that you need to learn Forex trading as it is all together a different ball game. Here we are presenting some of the most prominent reasons that stress on the effectiveness of learning Forex trading.

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Learning the basics of Forex – If you are new to world of Forex trading you need to start learning from the scratch. You need to begin with the basics of Forex trading unless you can not have a primary idea of Forex trading. You need to know the process of Forex trading – how to read the Forex quotes, how to execute the trades and how profit and loss is determined at the Forex market and so on. Without this preliminary idea of the Forex trading you can not start investing in the Forex trading.

 

Deciding of Forex trading plan – When you are trading at the Forex market you need to have a Forex trading strategy and for deciding that trading plan you need to have comprehensive idea of the Forex trading process and the current market trends. Without a well defined trading plan you will have no clue what to do at the Forex market. An effective learning process will help you to have an idea of the Forex trading and that is very much necessary for deciding on your trading plan.

 

Getting accustomed with Forex Trading – While you learn Forex trading you will get gradually accustomed with the Forex trading. This is will help you start with Forex trading and eventually become an experienced trader. It is true that until you start investing in the Forex market and have a first hand experience of the Forex market, you can not have complete conception of what Forex trading actually the learning process will help you to initially get accustomed with the Forex trading.

 

Analyzing Forex market trends – Once you have the basic idea of the Forex market, you should start learning about the advanced techniques of Forex trading. This will include the fundamental as well as technical analysis of the global currency market. To predict the future trends in the Forex market it is important that you have the skills to fundamentally and technically analyze the present market trends and these two techniques required specialized knowledge. So it is essential that you learn these methods properly to flawlessly predict the future of the currency pairs and make profit from Forex trading.

 

Using Forex robots – Forex robot is a vital part of Forex trading. These robots are basically software programs that are designed to keep track of the market trends and execute trades independently. You need to learn the techniques to customize the trading indicators on the basis of which the robot will do the trading on your behalf.

 

All said and done you must always remember that you can not learn everything in one day of in a short span of time. To learn Forex trading you have to spend considerable amount of time and have patience to learn the complete process. In fact a good trader is always a good leaner and the learning process is never ending and that is why as you keep trading, you get more knowledge of Forex trading. 

 

As a trader you must always remember that learning of the Forex trading is just the beginning and until and unless you apply your knowledge in the Forex trading, all your learning is a waste. So in every step that you take in your Forex market journey should be judged with the knowledge and experience that you have gained from the learning process. That will be the success of all the effort that you have put in while learning Forex trading.

Oil falls to low point of 2017 as global markets consolidate with commodity weakness seeing profit booking.

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Indian Indices: Asian markets opened flat with the Japanese index seeing gains after 3 days of losses. Oil price fall saw exporting countries get hit as stocks corrected sharply. Commodities correction also saw US Dollar fall while bond yields hardened.


Nifty saw another day of range bound trade with falls being bought by foreign investors as markets will await exit poll results on the state elections due this evening. Metals, IT and Realty stocks got hit while Auto, Banks and Airline stocks saw buying, which saw the Nifty close almost flat. For today, expect oil weakness to see gains for Airline, OMC and Paint stocks as Nifty attempts pullback.    


The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 28855.93, down by 46.01 points or 0.16% after trading in a range of 28815.02 and 28911.54. There were 11 stocks advancing against 19 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were showing mixed trade; the BSE Mid cap index was down by 0.09%, while Small cap index was up by 0.07%.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 8909.75, down by 14.55 points or 0.16% after trading in a range of 8899.50 and 8918.50. There were 21 stocks advancing against 30 stocks declining on the index.

MARKET INDICATORS

·           

 

Group ATopGainers

 

 

Company

Price (Rs)

% chg

Dishtv

105.15

5.68

HDIL

72.10

4.04

Edelweiss

138.90

2.97

MRPL

105.75

2.52

Group ATopLosers

 

 

Idea

104.10

-1.98

GVKpil

6.18

-1.59

Gail

380.80

-1.91

Raymond

640.00

-1.53

INDEX PERFORMANCE

 

 

Indices

Support

Resistanes

Sensex

28805

29010

Nifty

8890

8955

 

Technical view: Nifty finds strong support around 8880 with 8980 acting as stiff resistance on the upside. Bank Nifty finds strong support around 20450 with 20800 acting as resistance on the upside.


 

Trading ideas: YESBANK (Buy above Rs 1475, for Target of Rs 1510, SL at Rs 1458): The stock has broken out from an ascending triangle formation on daily charts along with a confirmation of breakout on hourly charts. Yes Bank's price rise is accompanied with impressive rise in volumes. Other momentum oscillators are also indicating strength in the current up move. We advise to Buy Yes Bank above Rs 1475, Stop Loss at Rs 1458 and Target of Rs 1510.


Derivative Snippets: Nifty call and put options witnessed some buying interest, as the implied volatility of ATM/OTM options started to move up. Markets will remain volatile ahead of the state election results.   

FIIs were net buyers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs 3573 crore.


FII’s index future long/short ratio stands at 3.3x vs3.5x. Significant long and short positions to the tune of ~11k and ~7k contracts were added in index future for the second day in a row, indicating a volatile trading session.


Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were Asian Paints up by 1.38%, ACC up by 1.08%, Zee Entertainment up by 0.67%, Tata Motors up by 0.57% and Axis Bank up by 0.55%. On the flip side, Dr. Reddy’s Lab down by 4.14%, GAIL India down by 3.94%, Wipro down by 1.55%, BhartiInfratel down by 1.39% and Power Grid down by 1.30% were the top losers.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:  The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Realty up by 0.49%, Consumer Durables up by 0.40%, Auto up by 0.27%, Consumer Disc up by 0.25% and Industrials up by 0.05%, while Utilities down by 0.98%, Telecom down by 0.63%, Power down by 0.60%, Metal down by 0.58% and Healthcare down by 0.47% were the top losing indices on BSE.

 

On the global front: On the global front, Asian shares were trading mostly in green, as strong China trade data bolstered bets of a recovering global economy, though gains were capped by caution ahead of a widely expected US interest rate hike next week. Japan’s economy grew more than earlier estimated in the fourth quarter as capital expenditure grew at its fastest in almost three years, welcome news for policymakers as they begin to discuss how to wind down years of massive stimulus.

 

Global Signals:The Asian markets barring Japanese Nikkei 225 which was trading up by 26.38 points or 0.14% to 19,280.41, were trading in red.

On the other hand, Hang Seng slumped by 233.16 points or 0.98% to 23,549.11, Taiwan Weighted decreased 83.58 points or 0.86% to 9,669.87, Shanghai Composite decreased by 27.51 points or 0.85% to 3,213.16, FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI was down by 3.91 points or 0.23% to 1,721.63, KOSPI Index declined by 1.74 points or 0.08% to 2,093.67 and Jakarta Composite was tad lower by 0.82 points or 0.02% to 5,392.94.

 

Sensex, Nifty end lower: Reliance, Infosys, Ongc drag

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Indian Indices: Indian equity benchmarks traded on a weak note for most part of the day and ended the session in red. Investors maintained a cautious approach ahead of state elections results, including that of Uttar Pradesh. Uttar Pradesh election is the world’s largest this year and will have a key influence on Prime Minister NarendraModi’s chances of clinching a second term in 2019. Concerns have also grown over a hike in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve next week. 

The market made a soft start in early deals as traders took cautious approach with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in its Interim Economic Outlook report highlighted that India, where the government implemented a drastic measure of currency demonetization in November, was the only one to see its growth forecast for the year reduced. India’s growth projection for the financial year ending on March 31 was lowered to 7.3 percent. The outlook for the fiscal year 2018 was retained at 7.7 percent.

The BSE Sensex ended at 28904.41, down by 95.15 points or 0.33% after trading in a range of 28815.48 and 29022.32. There were 10 stocks advancing against 20 stocks declining on the index.  The broader indices ended in red; the BSE Mid cap index was down by 0.60%, while Small cap index was down by 0.34%.

The CNX Nifty ended at 8926.30, down by 20.60 points or 0.23% after trading in a range of 8891.95 and 8957.05. There were 19 stocks advancing against 32 stocks declining on the index.

MARKET INDICATORS

·           

 

Top Movers (Group A)

 

 

Company

Cmp

% chg

Gainers

 

 

Hathway

38.20

5.82

Jubilant

735.05

4.33

Bhartifin

851.75

4.32

Marksans

49.75

3.75

Losers

 

 

Nationalum

74.10

-4.76

RCOM

34.55

-4.43

NMDC

141.00

-4.28

Adanipowe

38.50

-4.70

INDEX PERFORMANCE

 

 

Index

Close

% Chg

Sensex

28901.94

-0.34

Nifty

8,924.30

-0.25

 

Crporate Front:

Consumer price inflation is likely to rise in February for the first time since demonetisation and this could prompt the RBI to hike rates much sooner than most expect, says a report. According to a report by Capital Economics, consumer price inflation dropped in January to 3.2 per cent from 3.4 per cent in December, but is likely to rise in February.


 

Macroeconomic front: Empowering women to achieve economic equality would "exponentially" increase global gross domestic product (GDP) by at least $12 trillion by 2025, according to Assistant Secretary General Lakshmi Puri.With women's equal participation in the economy, world GDP has the potential to even go up to $28 trillion, she said Tuesday citing a study done by the consulting company, McKinsey, in association with UN Women, the international organisation's outfit for women's empowerment and equality.

 

On the global front:

On the global front, Asian markets closed mixed, as strong China trade data bolstered bets of a recovering global economy, though gains were capped by caution ahead of a widely expected US interest rate hike next week. Japan’s economy grew more than earlier estimated in the fourth quarter as capital expenditure grew at its fastest in almost three years, welcome news for policymakers as they begin to discuss how to wind down years of massive stimulus. European stocks were trading in green as investors eyed the UK annual budget release due later in the day, as well as a batch of fresh earnings reports.


Commodity Updates:

Commodity Prices (MCX):

Commodity

Rs

% Chang

Gold

28696.00

-0.19

Silver

41776.00

-0.4

Crude oil

3529.00

-0.82

Natural Gas

194.50

2.75

Alluminium

125.50

0.2

Copper

388.20

0.36

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:he few gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Bankex up by 0.28%, Healthcare up by 0.10% and Consumer Durables up by 0.02%, while Metal down by 2.03%, Realty down by 1.58%, Energy down by 1.44%, Oil & Gas down by 1.35% and Basic Materials down by 0.96% were the losing indices on BSE. (Provisional)

Top Nifty Movers:The top gainers on Nifty were Bosch up by 2.81%, Yes Bank up by 1.99%, Zee Entertainment up by 1.65%, Eicher Motors up by 1.42% and Kotak Mahindra Bank up by 0.92%. On the flip side, Tata Steel down by 2.07%, Idea Cellular down by 2.07%, ONGC down by 1.96%, Tech Mahindra down by 1.71% and BHEL down by 1.34% were the top losers.

 

Global Signals:

Asian markets were trading mixed; KOSPI Index increased 1.36 points or 0.06% to 2,095.41, Taiwan Weighted increased 15.38 points or 0.16% to 9,753.45 and Hang Seng increased 101.2 points or 0.43% to 23,782.27. On the flip side, Nikkei 225 decreased 90.12 points or 0.47% to 19,254.03, Jakarta Composite decreased 6.24 points or 0.12% to 5,396.37, FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI decreased 1.8 points or 0.1% to 1,726.86 and Shanghai Composite decreased 1.74 points or 0.05% to 3,240.67.

All European markets were trading in red; France’s CAC decreased 8.82 points or 0.18% to 4,946.18, UK’s FTSE 100 decreased 1.7 points or 0.02% to 7,337.29 and Germany’s DAX decreased 0.2 points or 0% to 11,965.94.

 

Research Report-Voltas-Sharetipsinfo

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Text Box: Company Overview:

 

 

 

Voltas is India's largest air conditioning company, and one of the world's premier engineering solutions providers and project specialists.

Founded in India in 1954, Voltas Limited offers engineering solutions for a wide spectrum of industries in areas such as heating, ventilation and air conditioning, refrigeration, electro-mechanical projects, textile machinery, mining and construction equipment, water management & treatment, cold chain solutions, building management systems, and indoor air quality.

 

Green Mission:

 

It's in the very nature of Voltas' core businesses to be actively engaged in today's Green movement. Every day, the need to conserve energy, preserve the ecology and minimise man's carbon footprint become more and more imperative. That's a call which Voltas answers through its products, its services, and its operating principles.

 

Devlopment Growth: VOLT’s Q3 revenues (-7% YoY to Rs 11.8bn) were hit by demonetisation and slower execution in the projects business, even as EBITDA margins expanded 309bps YoY (9M: +241bps) off a low base. Management remains cautious on the pace of execution in the Middle East but expects closure of legacy projects by FY17-end. While VOLT maintains leadership in the room AC business, we think competition can depress the business metrics. BUY &HOLD with (Sep’17 TP: Rs 450) set at 20x FY19E PE.

 

 

Performance highlights:.

Execution disappoints in Middle East:

VOLT attributed the 3% YoY decline in the electromechanical projects & services (EMPS) business to slower-than-expected progress on some new orders in the Middle East. However, positive closure of some old projects and better margins in new orders led to segment EBIT margins of 3.88%. VOLT expects to close legacy projects in the Middle East by FY17-end, which should normalise segment EBIT margins to ~4-5%. Overall, VOLT booked Rs 4.5bn of new orders in Q3 and its order book stood at Rs 42bn (incl. Rs 18bn of overseas orders). PAT came in at Rs 803mn (+42% YoY).

Currency ban hits AC business: The unitary cooling products (UCP) segment declined 5% YoY to Rs 4.1bn as demonetisation negated the strong YoY growth in Oct’16. VOLT stated secondary sales of ACs across the industry dropped 11% YoY by volume, and that it maintained leadership in room ACs with YTD market share of 21.7%. Segment EBIT margins slid 116bps YoY to 10.8% but increased 150bps YoY to 13.4% in 9MFY17. Management had earlier guided to ~13% margins for FY17. VOLT thinks it can get scale benefits even if it sources ACs via imports as it will have a higher import share when rivals opt for installing manufacturing capacity locally.

Financials (Quarterly) :

 

Particulars

Dec 16

Sep 16

June 16

Revenue

1037.16

850.33

1654.88

Other Income

57.93

118.07

35.74

Total Income

1095.09

968.40

1690.62

Expenditure

-943.37

-787.72

-1537.77

Interest

-1.29

-1.31

-2.40

PBDT

150.43

179.37

150.45

Depreciation

-4.54

-4.49

-4.68

PBT

145.89

174.88

145.77

Tax

-42.48

-48.97

-40.81

Net Profit

103.41

125.91

104.96

 

Highlights the fact:

1)Voltas has a history of strong price swings, which started with a steep fall in 2008, followed by equally sharp reversal in 2009. In short, it rewards handsomely to the swing trades and investors, provided they follow its trend.

2)The unitary cooling products (UCP) segment declined 5% YoY to Rs 4.1bn as demonetisation negated the strong YoY growth in Oct’16.

3)The company is selective in booking fresh orders. VOLT booked Rs 4.5bn of new orders in Q3 and its order book stood at Rs 42bn (incl. Rs 18bn of overseas orders).

4)It has been consolidating in a broader range 320-350 for last couple of months and currently trading closer to the upper band of the same.

5) It recovered almost vertically from that mark and formed a new record high 406 in at its recent  moves.

Technically View:

VOLTAS

Synopsis

Technicals View

50 Day EMA

Close is Above EMA 50 (Short Term)

Bullish

100 Day EMA

Close is Above EMA 100 (Mid Term)

Bullish

200 Day EMA

Close is Above EMA 200 (Long Term)

Bullish

MACD (12 26 9)

MACD Line is GreaterThen SIGNAL Line

Bullish

RSI (14)

RSI is 54.56

Sideways

MFI (14)

MFI is 72.08

Sideways

CCI (20)

CCI is above 100

Over Bought

10 Day Avg Volume

Traded -42.89 % Less then 10 Day Average Volume

 

VALUATION & OUTLOOK:

 

The stock trades at a PE of 25x/22x FY18E/FY19E; we think valuations are full given “slow recovery” in the Middle East and the near-term impact of demonetisation. Maintain BUY &HOLD with a Mar’18 TP of 550 (Sep’17 TP: Rs 450).

 

 

Text Box: CONCLUSION:

Given sustained Short-term earnings growth potential,–

We retain our Buy recommend in this script with the target of Rs 450-550 in the short term outlook. So Entry would be around 365-375and stoploss maintain 330 asrecomanded in this counter.

US indices consolidate as rate hike certainty sees caution on stocks with bond yields rising as US Dollar gains.

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Indian Indices: Asian markets are also seeing consolidation as US indices close with minor losses with caution being the buzzword. With almost 85% probability of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve on the March 15 markets have turned cautious and will see some more profit booking before the event to price in the same.


Nifty closed with minor losses as 8950 and above saw profit booking before the election results due this weekend. With next week being holiday, expect more volatility in the coming few days as investors book profit before the event with markets being closed on Monday. Metals, Banks and Pharma stocks could be under pressure with Energy, IT seeing buying for today.


The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 28920.60, down by 78.96 points or 0.27% after trading in a range of 28908.89 and 29022.32. There were 7 stocks advancing against 23 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading in red; the BSE Mid cap index was down by 0.31%, while Small cap index was down by 0.06%.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 8942.00, down by 4.90 points or 0.05% after trading in a range of 8939.85 and 8957.05. There were 22 stocks advancing against 29 stocks declining on the index.


MARKET INDICATORS

·           

 

Group ATopGainers

 

 

Company

Price (Rs)

% chg

Hathway

37.95

5.12

APLLTD

617.00

4.84

GET&D

287.70

3.16

Divislab

773.90

2.50

Group ATopLosers

 

 

NMDC

140.75

-4.45

Adanipower

38.75

-4.08

Jindalstel

120.25

-3.72

Adanient

94.55

-3.42

INDEX PERFORMANCE

 

 

Indices

Support

Resistanes

Sensex

28938

29079

Nifty

8929

8975

 


Technical view: Nifty finds strong support @ 8880-8900 while resistance comes around 9000. Bank Nifty sees support around 20400, which was the swing low last week while 20800 will act as resistance on the upside.


 

Trading ideas :IndusInd Bank (Buy above 1332 for Target of 1370 and SL 1315): After consolidating for the past five trading sessions, our analysis of the hourly time frame indicates that the stock has broken out from an inverse head and shoulder pattern, which is bullish in nature. The neckline breach has also been accompanied with credible volumes. IndusInd Bank has also closed above its short term 10-EMA, further accentuating our bullish stance on the stock.


Derivative Snippets: Markets ended yesterday’s trading session on a lackluster note. Nifty call and put options witnessed some buying interest, as the implied volatility of ATM/OTM options started to move up ahead of state election results.   

FIIs were net buyers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs 920 crore.

FII’s index future long/short ratio stands at 3.5x vs4.1x. Significant long and short positions to the tune of ~14k and ~13k contracts were added in index future.


Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were Kotak Mahindra Bank up by 1.71%, Yes Bank up by 1.70%, Power Grid up by 1.49%, ACC up by 1.34% and AurobindoPharma up by 0.87%.

On the flip side, BPCL down by 1.57%, Idea Cellular down by 1.52%, Hindalco down by 1.22%, HCL Technologies down by 1.05% and Infosys down by 0.89% were the top losers.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:  The only gainers on the BSE were Healthcare up by 0.15% and Bankex up by 0.09%, while Metal down by 1.27%, Oil & Gas down by 1.08%, Energy down by 0.88%, IT down by 0.71% and Realty down by 0.71% were the losing indices on BSE.

The top gainers on the Sensex were Power Grid up by 1.16%, HDFC up by 0.69%, NTPC up by 0.41%, Larsen & Toubro up by 0.36% and Cipla up by 0.28%.

 

 

On the global front: On the global front, Asian shares were trading mostly in green, as strong China trade data bolstered bets of a recovering global economy, though gains were capped by caution ahead of a widely expected US interest rate hike next week. Japan’s economy grew more than earlier estimated in the fourth quarter as capital expenditure grew at its fastest in almost three years, welcome news for policymakers as they begin to discuss how to wind down years of massive stimulus.

 

Global Signals:The Asian markets were trading mostly in green; KOSPI Index increased 0.86 points or 0.04% to 2,094.91, Shanghai Composite increased 1.05 points or 0.03% to 3,243.45, Taiwan Weighted increased 23.15 points or 0.24% to 9,761.22 and Hang Seng increased 95.21 points or 0.4% to 23,776.28.

On the other hand, Nikkei 225 decreased 111.9 points or 0.58% to 19,232.25, Jakarta Composite decreased 2.38 points or 0.04% to 5,400.23 and FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI decreased 1.96 points or 0.11% to 1,726.70.

 

US indices opened the week on a quiet note as North Korea missile test leads to profit booking with all eyes on Federal Reserve for next week

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Indian Indices: Asian markets opened a mixed note with most indices trading in green as overnight US indices regained most losses to close marginally below 21000. North Korea missile test, profit booking and Fed meet on March 14-15 will be key in deciding future direction of the US and the global markets next week.


Nifty rallied from opening bell to close near the highs for the day as foreign buying saw bears scramble for cover. The Nifty closed @ the highest point in the last 2 years with 9000 being the target for today. Reliance, Metals and private banks led the way as mid-caps also joined the party.


The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 29043.51, down by 4.68 points or 0.02% after trading in a range of 29033.83 and 29098.17. There were 16 stocks advancing against 14 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were holding the ground and trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.33%, while Small cap index up by 0.17%.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 8959.40, down by 4.05 points or 0.05% after trading in a range of 8952.40 and 8977.85. There were 25 stocks advancing against 26 stocks declining on the index.

MARKET INDICATORS

·           

 

Group ATopGainers

 

 

Company

Price (Rs)

% chg

Adanipower

40.35

4.67

Coromande

328.95

3.43

Bajajelec

274.00

3.14

DEN

83.80

3.14

Group ATopLosers

 

 

Hindalco

193.60

-2.91

JKTYRE

121.25

-2.18

Wabag

568.95

-2.14

Hindzinc

303.20

-1.97

INDEX PERFORMANCE

 

 

Indices

Support

Resistanes

Sensex

28912

29205

Nifty

8929

9005

 

Technical view: Nifty finds strong support @ 8900 with 9000 being the resistance on the upside, while Bank Nifty also finds strong support @ 20400 with 20800 acting as resistance on the upside.


 

Trading ideas: ASHOKLEY (Buy above Rs 91, for Target of Rs 95.5, SL at Rs 88.5): Stock has formed a bullish morning star pattern on the daily charts after successfully taking support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent up move. Ashok Leyland also closed above its 200-DMA in yesterday's trade with credible volumes. RSI crossover on the daily chart adds to the bullish stance in the stock.  We advise to Buy AshokLey above Rs 91, Stop Loss at Rs 88.5 and Target of Rs 95.5.


Derivative Snippets: Markets traded with a positive bias as Auto and Banking index surged higher. With the heavy short selling of Nifty 9000PE and short covering of Nifty 9000CE, a breach of the psychological resistance of 9000 is on the cards for the first time since March 2015.

FIIs were net buyers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs 564 crore.

FII’s index future long/short ratio continues to stand above 4x since the start of this F&O series, leading to a positive bias in the markets.


Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were Tata Power up by 1.33%, BPCL up by 0.98%, Reliance Industries up by 0.85%, Zee Entertainment up by 0.77% and Tech Mahindra up by 0.65%. On the flip side, Hindalco down by 1.70%, Infosys down by 1.44%, Tata Motors - DVR down by 0.96%, Tata Motors down by 0.85% and Yes Bank down by 0.80% were the top losers.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:  The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Power up by 0.84%, Utilities up by 0.76%, Energy up by 0.52%, Oil & Gas up by 0.43% and Consumer Durables up by 0.37%, while Metal down by 0.50%, Realty down by 0.47%, IT down by 0.29%, TECK down by 0.21% and Healthcare down by 0.10% were the losing indices on BSE.

 

 

On the global front: On sectoral front, power utility and energy stocks were restricting any fall in the market. The oil & gas stocks were trading higher after International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that India is moving to the centre stage of global energy market and by the early 2020s it will replace Russia as the world's third largest refiner. In scrip specific action Bharat Financial Inclusion declined after it said that 4.5 percent of its loan portfolio was at a risk of turning bad in Q4 and that 60 percent of the overdue portfolio pertained to Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra.

 

Global Signals:The Asian markets were trading mostly higher; FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI was up by 1.29 points or 0.07% to 1,728.65, KOSPI Index gained 13.4 points or 0.64% to 2,094.76, Taiwan Weighted was higher by 38.3 points or 0.4% to 9,720.93 and Hang Seng increased 92.36 points or 0.39% to 23,688.64.On the other hand, Nikkei 225 declined by 26.15 points or 0.13% to 19,352.99, Jakarta Composite was down by 6.41 points or 0.12% to 5,403.41 and Shanghai Composite was tad lower by 2.24 points or 0.07% to 3,231.63.

 

Global rally consolidates as rate hike seems certain as yields and US Dollar strengthen with global equities seeing profit booking.

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Indian Indices: Asian markets opened mixed as North Korea tested some missiles, which saw a cautious start to the week. The undertone remains strong with all falls being bought, as the rate hike by the US Federal Reserve anticipated in March, gets priced in.


Nifty saw a sharp pullback on Friday in the last hour of trade as foreign investors bought aggressively. Reliance Industries led the rally as renewed buying by foreign institutions saw the heavyweight lead from the front. For today, expect bets on the election results due in the state elections on Saturday March 11th to fuel rumours as Nifty will oscillate sharply this week.


The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 29050.54, up by 218.09 points or 0.76% after trading in a range of 28856.12 and 29054.72. There were 25 stocks advancing against 5 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.58%, while Small cap index was up by 0.64%.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 8959.95, up by 62.40 points or 0.70% after trading in a range of 8914.00 and 8962.10. There were 38 stocks advancing against 13 stocks declining on the index.


MARKET INDICATORS

·           

 

Group ATopGainers

 

 

Company

Price (Rs)

% chg

Welcorp

87.25

4.37

JPAssociat

15.80

3.61

Relaince

1303.5

3.55

GPPL

158.05

3.47

Group ATopLosers

 

 

Apl Ltd

592.00

-1.76

Persistant

630.65

-1.45

Grasim

1006.25

-1.44

Hexaware

219.20

-1.28

INDEX PERFORMANCE

 

 

Indices

Support

Resistanes

Sensex

28745

28945

Nifty

8855

8950

 

Technical view: Nifty has held the support @ 8860 with 8840 acting as strong support while 8980 will act as resistance on the upside. Bank Nifty also finds strong support @ 20350 while 20800 will act as resistance.


 

Trading ideas :Bharat Forge (Buy above Rs 1045 for Target of Rs 1075, SL at Rs 1028): After correcting for past seven consecutive trading sessions, the stock has finally shown some signs of reversal by forming a hammer candle stick pattern on daily charts. The stock has also retested the neckline of the long drawn consolidation breakout, which occurred two weeks back. Momentum oscillators are also indicating a shift in momentum. 


Derivative Snippets: In the last trading session, markets traded in a narrow range as the option writers took a center stage. Across the board, Option writing of the OTM strikes was witnessed in the Bank Nifty weekly contracts.

FIIs were net buyers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs ~1529 crore.

FII’s index future long/short ratio fell to 4.4x vs5.4x, as long unwinding of 12.7k contracts was witnessed.


Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were Reliance Industries up by 3.58%, IndusInd Bank up by 1.99%, Power Grid up by 1.68%, Asian Paints up by 1.41% and NTPC up by 1.38%.

On the flip side, Grasim Industries down by 1.69%, Idea Cellular down by 1.31%, AurobindoPharma down by 0.93%, Zee Entertainment down by 0.87% and Sun Pharma down by 0.76% were the top losers.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:  The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Energy up by 2.06%, Oil & Gas up by 1.27%, Power up by 1.09%, Auto up by 1.08% and PSU up by 1.03%, while Consumer Durables down by 0.08% and IT down by 0.01% were the only losers on BSE.

The top gainers on the Sensex were Reliance Industries up by 3.66%, Power Grid up by 1.70%, NTPC up by 1.57%, Asian Paints up by 1.31% and Bajaj Auto up by 1.20%.

 

 

WEEKLY NIFTY TRADING VIEW FOR THE WEEK MAR 06, 2017–MAR12, 2017

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Events to watch this week

  • Hike anticipated at March FOMC meeting
  • Global growth uptick continues
  • Major indices set records
  • House of Lords seeks Brexit bill amendments

The Week ahead:

  • The People’s Bank of China meets to set interest rates on Monday, 6 March
  • Q4 eurozone gross domestic product is released on Tuesday, 7 March
  • Japan releases Q4 GDP figures on Wednesday, 8 March
  • China reports its trade balance on Wednesday, 8 March
  • The European Central Bank holds a rate-setting meeting on Thursday, 9 March
  • The US February employment report is released on Friday, 10 March

For the week,Global equities extended gains this week, and strong global manufacturing data suggested that economic momentum continues to improve. Yields on the 10-year US Treasury note rose strongly — to 2.49% from 2.32% — as investors moved to price in an interest rate increase from the US Federal Reserve. Despite growing economic optimism, oil prices fell this week on increased US inventories. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1 per barrel to $53.00 this week while global Brent fell to $55.50 from $56.50. Volatility remains subdued, with the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index at 11.50.

NIFTY- 8,897.55
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,557barrel
GOLD-Rs 29,020 gram
Rs/$-Rs 66.81

MARKET ROUND UP

After logging gains in prior five weeks, key benchmark indices took a breather in the week ended Friday, 3 March 2017 as investors resorted to profit booking. Key indices edged lower in four out of five trading sessions during the week.

In the week ended Friday, 3 March 2017, the Sensex fell 60.52 or 0.21% to settle at 28,832.45. The Nifty 50 index fell 41.95 points or 0.47% to settle at 8,897.55. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 123.07 points or 0.91% to settle at 13,409.04. The BSE Small-Cap index gained 32.39 points or 0.24% to settle at 13,620.17.

Trading for first day of the week began on a subdued note as the key benchmark indices dropped on Monday, 27 February 2017 due to selling pressure in bank stocks. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, fell 80.09 points or 0.28% to settle 28,812.88, its lowest closing level since 21 February 2017.

Macro Economic Front:

On the Economic Front,India's dominant services industry returned to growth in February for the first time in four months, a private business survey showed on Friday, 3 March 2017. The Nikkei Services Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, in India came in at 50.3 in February of 2017, up from 48.7 in January. It was the first expansion after three months contraction but the weakest since October 2016 as output increased while employment has shown only one noteworthy monthly increase in the past one-and-a-half years. A reading above 50 indicates that the services sector is generally expanding; below 50 indicates that it is generally declining.

The GDP growth is estimated to be 7% in Q3 December 2016, as per the second advance estimates of national income from Central Statistics Office (CSO) under Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. The growth in GDP during 2016-2017 is estimated at 7.1% as compared to the growth rate of 7.9% in 2015-2016.

Major Action &Announcement:

Maruti Suzuki India fell 2.37% to Rs 5,891.80. The company said its total sales rose 10.9% to 1.30 lakh units in February 2017 over February 2016. The announcement was made during market hours on Wednesday, 1 March 2017. The company's total domestic sales rose 11.7% to 1.20 lakh units in February 2017 over February 2016. Exports grew by 2.2% to 9,545 units in February 2017 over February 2016.

Tata Motors fell 0.41% to Rs 460.10. The company's total sales rose 2% to 47,573 vehicles in February 2017 over February 2016. The company's domestic sales of Tata commercial and passenger vehicles rose 3% at 42,679 units in February 2017 over February 2016. The announcement was made after market hours on Wednesday, 1 March 2017.

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) rose 0.84%. The company reported a 11% growth in its total tractor sales to 15,007 units in February 2017 over February 2016. The company's domestic tractor sales grew by 9% to 13,834 units in February 2017 over February 2016. Exports surged 35% to 1,173 units in February 2017 over February 2016. M&M's total auto sales declined 3% to 42,714 units in February 2017 over February 2016. Total domestic sales fell 2% to 40,414 units in February 2017 over February 2016. Exports dropped 13% to 2,300 units in February 2017 over February 2016. The company announced the monthly sales volume data during market hours on Wednesday, 1 March 2017.

Lupin rose 1.23%. The company announced during trading hours on Thursday, 2 March 2017, the launch of generic Prstiq (Desvenlafaxine Succinate) Extended-Release Tablets, 50 mg and 100 mg having received an approval from the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) earlier. Lupin'sDesvenlafaxine Succinate Extended-Release Tablets, 50 mg and 100 mg is the AB rated generic equivalent of Wyeth Pharmaceuticals' Pristiq Tablets. It is indicated for the treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD). Pristiq Tablets had annual US sales of approximately $859.9 million (IMS MAT December 2016).

State-run Coal India lost 2.09%. The company said that production of the company and its subsidiary companies was 96% of targeted production at 54.30 million tonnes in February 2017. Offtake was 94% of target at 47.73 million tonnes in February 2017. The announcement was made after market hours on Wednesday, 1 March 2017.

Wipro rose 1.41%. The company announced that it has completed the sale of its EcoEnergy division on 1 March 2017. Wipro said that the impact of sale of EcoEnergy division is expected to reflect in the financials of Wipro for the Q4 March 2017 and year ending 31 March 2017 (FY 2017). The announcement was made before market hours on Thursday, 2 March 2017.

Global Front:

In Overseas Markets,the Labor Department said on Thursday, 2 February 2017 that initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level in over 40 years in the week ended 25 February 2017, potentially adding to rate hike expectations.

US President Donald Trump promised to provide tax cuts for companies and middle-class citizens, invest $1 trillion in infrastructure, and increase defence spending in his maiden speech to Congress on Wednesday, 1 March 2017. Trump made no suggestions on how he would pay for his plans.

Global Economic News:

Market prices in March Fed move
The week began with markets pricing in about a 50% chance of a hike in the federal funds rate at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this month but ended with markets almost fully pricing in a quarter-percent hike. Hawkish comments from the troika of Fed chair Janet Yellen, Vice Chair Stanley Fischer and New York Fed president William Dudley helped seal expectations of a March hike.

Fresh records for major indices
More records were broken this week as the reflation rally extended further. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 21,000 for the first time on Wednesday, while the S&P 500 Index brushed 2,400. London’s FTSE 100 also closed at a record high on Wednesday, boosted in part by a weak pound.

Brexit process hits speed bump
Despite suffering a defeat in the House of Lords over the Brexit bill, UK prime minister Theresa May insists her timetable for triggering Article 50 will not be delayed. The Lords voted to amend the Brexit bill in order to force the government to guarantee the rights of citizens of the European Union living in the UK. The bill will now be referred back to the House of Commons, where May is expected push to reject the amendment.

Earnings season draws to a close
With 98% of companies reporting for the fourth quarter of 2016, the earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 4.9%. According to FactSet Research, the fourth quarter will mark the first time the index has seen year-over-year growth in earnings for two consecutive quarters since Q4 2014 and Q1 2015. Sales growth for Q4 is running at a 4.9% rate, according to FactSet. The 12-month forward P/E ratio is now 17.9%, which is above the 5- and 10-year average.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Economic optimism continues to build
A sizable uptick in the closely watched ISM manufacturing purchasing managers’ index and a jump to a 15-year high in the Conference Board’s consumer confidence measure were two standout data points in the United States this week, keeping the reflation trade firmly on track. China’s PMI showed strength as well, though the eurozone’s and United Kingdom’s PMIs were less robust. However, economic sentiment in the eurozone reached a six-year high. Also notable in the eurozone this week was an energy-driven rise in inflation to near the European Central Bank’s 2% target. This is the first time consumer price inflation has reached the target in four years.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

 

ESCORTS

491.65

FINOLEXID

555.00

RELIANCE

1287.80

 

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (ALL):

ANIL LTD

70.30

ACME

11.41

 

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

national alumini

18.54

ESCORTS LTD

16.07

DELTA CORP

12.36

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

BPCL

-11.58

HIND PETROL

-8.66

JAMMU & kASHMIR

-8.12


Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:

Monday (06 Mar)
Factory Orders

Tuesday (07 Mar)
Consumer Credit

Wednesday (08 Mar)
Wholesale Trade

Thursday (09 Mar)
Jobless Claims & Natural Gas Report

Friday (10 Mar)
Employment Situation

Fundamental Pick of the week:

Buy GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare Ltd For Target Rs.5,910.

Strategy:

GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare closed 0.6% up in trade today at Rs5,108 vs. 0.5% fall in benchmark Nifty.

GSK Consumer is the market leader in health food drinks industry with market share of 70%. With its flagship brands Horlicks and Boost, it has successfully fend off competition from likes of Heinz and Mondelez.

The company would substantially benefit from lower tax rates in the GST regime as its current tax structure is quite high compared to other players.

Based on expected EPS of Rs181, the stock trades at attractive valuation of 28.2x FY18E earnings. We have a BUY rating on the stock with price target of Rs5,910.

Indian Market Outlook:

NIFTY OUTLOOK:

Supported by the firm global cues and better than expected GDP numbers, Nifty made a new 52-week high but finally settled with cut of nearly half a percent.

Markets are still overbought and we might see further consolidation in index ahead. However, the overall trend is bullish and hence we sug-gest traders to use any decline during this phase to accumulate quality stocks from the preferred list of sectors.

NIFTY FMCG OUTLOOK

* Nifty FMCG Index witnessed marginal profit taking in the passing week and closed slightly lower in line with the benchmark.

* Technically, it is wisely placed above its important moving averages (50,100 & 200 EMA) on daily chart and looks upbeat for an up move .

* Traders can consider fresh buying in select counters like   JUBLFOOD, HINDUNILVR, BRITANNIA from this space.

NIFTY MEDIA OUTLOOK

* Nifty Media Index also settled marginally lower after consolidating in a narrow range.

* It tested its important support zone placed around 2945 level and bounced back thereafter.

* Considering its overall chart formation, we expect strong surge in the near fu-ture.

* ZEEL, SUNTV are some of the better placed stocks in this space.

TECHNICAL VIEW:

S3

S2

S1

NIFTY

R1

R2

R3

8,760

8,820

8,865

8,897.55

8,935

9,020

9,100

Nifty Spot View

Nifty traded with volatile sentiments in last session due to profit booking at higher levels from traders. Next important support seen at 8800 level.Nifty likely to trade with sideways sentiments in thatsessio on profit booking at higher levels from traders. Nifty likely to trade with sideways sentiments and 8850 at lower side will be the trend deciding level. Higher side resistance seen at 8970 levels. However, some buying support at lower levels may limit the downside in NIFTY. Applying momentum Indicator RSI for 14-day period trading at level of 63.97 indicates that it is trading near over bought zone and may face resistance at higher levels.

 

Conclusion:

Now Bulls need a close above 9000 for a move towards 9050/9120/9200, Bears will get active below 8850 for a move towards 8800/8720.

Nifty did high of 8892 and low of 8850 so traded in the range, but in process broke the channel on downside. Break of 8850 shorts can be taken as fall can be seen till 8773 and bullish above 8900 for a move towards 8960/9000. Breakout above 8995 for a move towards 9083/9150.

 

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Forex trading is the undoubtedly the most prospective investment medium. With more than USD 5 trillion turnover every day, it is the largest financial market in the world. Though the currency market is more stable than any other financial market like the stock market, the movement of the currencies for a few points can end up giving you huge returns. This is simply because of high leverage of Forex trading and nil transaction cost. Moreover, Forex trading offers you highest form of liquidity that is not possible in any other investment in the World. So while converting your profit to cash, you do not loose any money as transaction cost.


 


All said and done, but you can not miss the fact that the Forex market is the most risky investment as well. In fact according to the analysis of the Forex brokers large number of investors experience loss at the Forex market for so many different reasons. So if you want to ensure that you make good and consistent profit at the stock market, you have to learn the tricks of the trade. You must have a comprehensive knowledge of Forex trading. Here we are presenting an overview of the Forex trading that will help you to learn the methods of Forex market trading.

 

One of the striking features of the Forex market is its geographic disparity. As the Forex trading is operated from almost all the significant financial capitals of the world, the Global Forex market is open round the clock and day and night except the weekends. So it is the time zone difference that lets you trade at any time of the day and night. You must be wondering then how to keep watch on the Forex trading through all these long trading hours. The most effective solution for this is the automated Forex trading systems. These are computer software also known as the Forex robots that can keep watch on the global Forex market and also execute the trades on your behalf as per the pre conditions that are set by you. In fact these systems are capable of the saving your investment by selling and closing the position when the market trend is on the reverse. The first thing that you need to learn for Forex trading is to use the automated system and take maximum advantage of these specifically designed software for Forex trading.

 

The next thing that you need to learn in Forex trading is how to read the Forex quotes. In Forex trading the trades are done by buying or selling one currency with another currency. That means Forex trading is done on a pair of currency. One of the currency is the pair is said to be the base currency and the other is the trade currency. For trading the trade currency is used for buying or selling the base currency on which the profit and loss is determined. In the Forex quote the base currency is always considered as one unit and the price of that one unit of base currency is mentioned in respect of the trade currency. For example if you are trading for Euro and USD where Euro is the base currency. The quote will be presented like EURUSD = 1.0538, where you will get 1 Euro for 1.0538 USD. (All Figures are just an example)

 

Like any other financial market the key for success at the Forex market is to buy one currency at a lower rate and selling the currency at a higher rate. You can also do short selling of the currency. That means you can sell a currency at a higher rate and then buy the currency to close the position at lower rate. But this is a simple equation of Forex trading and the trickiest part of the trading is to identify the trend of the market and to rightly speculate when a certain currency will go up in the market. For that you have to learn the methods of fundamental and technical analysis that are used to speculate the trend of the Forex market and movement of individual currencies.

 

These are some of the vital aspects of Forex trading and once you have an in depth understanding of the Forex trading, surely you can expect to get rich from Forex trading.

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