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RInfra to cut its Rs 6,000 cr debt, follow capital-light model: Anil Ambani

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Ambani further said the four business verticals including roads, metro, energy and airport are fully fundedReliance Infrastructure (RInfra) which is sitting on a debt of Rs 6,000 crore, is on track to reduce leverage even further as it focuses to be an asset-and capital-light entity, the company said on Monday.

Addressing the shareholders at the AGM, chairman Anil Ambanialso said the group's defence businesses will also follow an asset- and capital-light model.

"Our intent is to reduce the debt further. At present we are have around Rs 6,000 crore of debt but with a large networth," the RInfrachairman said, adding the will focus on the domestic market and take up more complex infrastructure and transportation projects.

"We hope to become one of the top five defence companiesamong the private players in the country, serving the needs of self-reliance and technological advancement and becoming a global supplier. Our defence business in partnership with global leaders will ensure optimum utilisation," he said.

He further said the four business verticals including roads, metro, energy and airport are fully funded.

"Going forward, both the growth engines of E&C and defence businesses will remain asset and capital light without the need for any further large capital infusion," he said.

On the defence opportunity, he further said the defence budget of Rs 3 trillion is a great opportunity for domestic players. "Of the Rs 3 lakh crore budget, Rs 1 trillion is for purchase of new weapons platforms and military hardware. This is a great opportunity for us to participate." The company has its presence in the defence business through two of its joint ventures with French firms Dassault Aviation and Thales.

"Both these joint ventures are operational and the factories are located in Mihan in Nagpur. Both are exporting high technology and high-value products to global markets in both civil as well as defence and aerospace area," he said.

Sounding bullish on the infrastructure space, given an outlay of Rs 100 trillion over the next five years, he said the country's infrastructure needs are very vast.

The government has announced Rs 100 lakh crore investment in infrastructure over the next five years and RInfrawill participate in these large scale opportunities and projects which are complex, he said.

The company has bagged a few large orders including the Rs 7,000 crore Versova-Bandra Sealink project and a few metro projects in the megapolis.

On the Delhi Metro arbitration award which is around Rs 5,000 crore, he said, the company had already won the case five years ago and is still waiting to receive the amount.

The transaction of the proposed sale of Delhi-Agra toll roadway, which is expected to fetch RInfraRs 3,600 crore, is likely to be closed in the next few weeks, he said.

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Auto crisis: Maruti Suzuki reports 24% decline in sales in September

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The country's largest carmaker Maruti SuzukiIndia (MSI) on Tuesday reported a 24.4 per cent decline in sales at 1,22,640 units in September.

The company had sold 1,62,290 units in September last year, MSI said in a statement.

Domestic sales declined by 26.7 per cent at 1,12,500 units last month as against 1,53,550 units in September 2018, it added.

Sales of mini cars comprising Alto and WagonR stood at 20,085 units as compared to 34,971 units in the same month last year, down 42.6 per cent.

Sales of compact segment, including models such as Swift, Celerio, Ignis, Baleno and Dzire, fell 22.7 per cent at 57,179 units as against 74,011 cars in September last year.

Mid-sized sedan Ciaz sold 1,715 units as compared to 6,246 units earlier.

Similarly, sales of utility vehicles, including Vitara Brezza, S-Cross and Ertiga, declined marginally at 21,526 units as compared to 21,639 in the year-ago month, MSI said.

Exports in September were down by 17.8 per cent at 7,188 units as against 8,740 units in the corresponding month last year, the company said.

RPT-POLL-RBI to pick up slack as India stimulus measures to fall short -economists

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Recent stimulus measures announced by the Indian government will be insufficient to boost economic growth significantly, said a majority of economists in a  poll who predicted two more interest rate cuts this year, in October and December.

To revive the ailing economy, the government in September announced a steep cut in the corporate tax rate - to 22% from 30% - triggering the biggest intraday gain in Indian stocks in more than a decade.

That along with other measures, including a rollback of a higher surcharge on foreign portfolio investment - introduced in the budget in July - led international investors to become net buyers of Indian assets in September.

But nearly 60% of around 50 economists who answered an additional question said those stimulus measures were unlikely to have a notable impact on the economy.

"While the cut in corporate taxes is sharp, its actual impact on growth is uncertain. Given that the current problem is of weak demand, a demand augmenting measure would have been more productive.

Although the economy is expected to have recovered last quarter from the sharp slowdown in the three months prior, economists downgraded their growth outlook for this fiscal year and next from three months ago.

The Sept. 24-30 poll of over 50 economists predicted gross domestic product growth to average 6.1% this fiscal year, the lowest since polling began for the period in April last year.

If realised, that would mark the slowest pace of growth in seven years.

The economy was then expected to expand 6.8% next fiscal year, a downgrade from 7.2% predicted in the July poll.

That weak outlook was driven by lack of clarity on when and how the U.S.-China trade war will end, which has already hurt business sentiment, manufacturing activity and the global economy.

But some economists argued recent measures announced by the Indian government, along with monetary policy easing, would likely boost Asia's third-largest economy.

The Reserve Bank of India has already eased policy by a cumulative 110 basis points this year.

It is now expected to cut its repo rate INREPO=ECI by 25 basis points on Friday, making it the fifth meeting in a row of easing, and is then predicted to follow that up by with another 15 basis points slice in December, taking the key rate to 5.0%.

But the RBI is then forecast to keep rates unchanged until 2021 at least.

"It looks like the authorities - both the government and the central bank - are firing up all cylinders to provide stimulus to the economy...with stimulus announced so far should start to revive growth going forward," said Prakash Sakpal, Asia economist at ING.

When asked how many more rate cuts it would take to boost growth significantly, nearly 45% of economists said cumulative rate cuts up to 50 basis points will be needed.

Eleven said between 50 and 100 basis points would do the trick, while two said over a percentage point.

The outlook for further policy easing was also backed by subdued inflation, which is not expected to breach the central bank's medium-term target of 4% until the fourth quarter of 2020.

"With inflation remaining under control, monetary stimulus in combination with the recent fiscal measures are likely to be growth supportive," said Shashank Mendiratta, economist at IBM (NYSE:IBM).

But not everyone agreed with that view.

Nearly 30% of respondents said boosting economic growth significantly is beyond the RBI's immediate control.

"Not only monetary policy but also short-term measures that the government has taken so far, are used to sugar-coat the wrong policy trajectory from a structural point of view," said Hugo Erken, head of international economics at Rabobank.

"Because what India really needs is a large-scale reform package on several fronts."

A weak growth outlook, ongoing concerns about the U.S.-China trade war and the prospect of further RBI easing are all expected to hurt the Indian rupee INR= in coming months.

After rallying as much as 3% against the dollar in September, the rupee is forecast to reverse most of those gains to trade at 72.50 per dollar in a year, compared to 70.70 on Monday.

"Despite the fact that both monetary and fiscal levers are now being deployed to prop up growth, a material recovery is still elusive," added ANZ's Sen.

"We therefore see limited scope for the current (rupee) rally to last unless demand sharply recovers. In addition, global risks including worsening in trade uncertainties or an oil price surge could add to rupee volatility."

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FOREX-Dollar index hits two-year high, Aussie falls after RBA cut

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The U.S. dollar rose to its highest in more than two years versus a basket of currencies on Tuesday before data that is forecast to show the U.S. manufacturing sector returned to growth, which would ease concern about the impact of the trade war with China.

The euro teetered near its lowest in more than two years against the greenback before data expected to show European inflation has remained tepid, suggesting euro zone policy will remain accommodative for some time.

The Australian dollar edged lower after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates and expressed concern about job growth, while the New Zealand dollar hit a new four-year low as weak business sentiment continued to weigh on the kiwi.

A host of economic data and comments from central bankers this week will set the tone for major currencies as traders try to determine how far policymakers will go to bolster growth.

"Economic data can be supportive of the dollar, and the Federal Reserve's comments are not as dovish as some people think," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.

"An RBA rate cut and the risk of a stagnant European economy both should be positive for the greenback."

The dollar index .DXY against a basket of six major currencies rose 0.10% to 99.479, after briefly touching the highest since May 12, 2017.

The dollar rose 0.17% to 108.26 yen JPY=EBS , close to its strongest level in almost two weeks.

The yen remained weak after the Bank of Japan's tankan showed business confidence in the third quarter slid to its lowest in six years. was subdued in Asian time because China's financial markets are closed until Monday for public holidays. Financial markets in Hong Kong were also closed on Tuesday for a holiday.

The Institute for Supply Management's measure of U.S. manufacturing activity later on Tuesday is forecast to show a return to expansion in September, but just barely.

In August, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in three years due to the U.S.-China trade war.

Several Fed policymakers are scheduled to speak this week, but traders said they will focus most on comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday for hints about the direction of U.S. monetary policy.

The Fed has cut interest rates twice this year, but there are signs that it is reluctant to ease policy further because the jobs market remains strong.

The euro fell 0.09% to $1.0889 EUR=EBS , close to its lowest since May 12, 2017.

Data due on Tuesday are forecast to show consumer prices in the euro zone rose an annual 1.0% in September, unchanged from the previous month and well below the European Central Bank's target.

Annual inflation in Germany, Europe's largest economy, slowed to the lowest in almost three years, data on Monday showed. ECB unleashed a new round of monetary easing measures on Sept. 12, but there is growing concern that the central bank is reaching the limits of what it can achieve and the burden will fall to eurozone governments to boost fiscal spending.

The Australian dollar briefly rose after the RBA cut its cash rate to a record low of 0.75%, as expected. However, the Aussie surrendered those gains to trade down 0.21% at $0.6742 AUD=D3 .

The RBA said forward-looking indicators suggest employment growth is likely to slow, which could bolster expectations that it will cut rates again by early next year. New Zealand dollar fell to a new four-year low of $0.6238 NZD=D3 . The kiwi has taken a hit as weakening business confidence bolstered expectations for monetary easing.

German inflation slows unexpectedly in September

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Demand uptick seen in semi-urban and rural India: Aditya Puri

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HDFC Bank Managing Director Aditya Puri on September 30 said demand is picking up in semi-urban and rural India.

"We are starting to see a change in sentiment; but it won't happen overnight," Puri said in an interview with CNBC-TV18.

Puri said the bank is starting to see disinvestment and expenditure pick up.

"We are confident of growth and putting a lot of effort behind it," Puri said.

Puri also said he expects better growth for the bank every quarter.

"MSME portfolio may see some marginal hit due to shift to external benchmark but overall margins will remain intact," he said.

On the subject of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monetary policy, Puri said that he is expecting a 25-40 bps rate cut.

Dollar stands tall as investors seek shelter

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The dollar found broad support on Monday as global political uncertainty and fears over a widening of the Sino-U.S trade war kept investors in safe harbours ahead of a slew of global economic indicators this week.

The greenback was steady against most major currencies. It held firm on the Japanese yen at 108.93 per dollar and sterling at $1.2287, while easing very slightly against the euro to $1.0932.

It gained against riskier, trade-exposed currencies such as the Australian dollar and the Chinese yuan. The biggest loser was the New Zealand dollar, which fell half a percentage point as business confidence hit its weakest in more than 11 years.

"Risk-off sentiment is prevailing in the market," said Anthony Doyle, global cross-asset specialist at fund manager Fidelity International in Sydney, citing U.S. political turmoil and Brexit as looming worries, besides the trade war.

"There's a lot of uncertainty out there," he said.

In Asian hours, traders mostly shrugged off news that the Trump administration was considering de-listing Chinese companies from U.S. stock markets after the reports were hosed down by Treasury officials.

Elsewhere, factory activity surveys in China suggested there were some signs of improvement this month, though analysts believe the gains cannot be sustained and forecast further economic weakness.

In Australia, forecasts for a rate cut on Tuesday firmed with gathering economic gloom. Markets are pricing a better than 75% chance the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce its cash rate for a third time this year.

German inflation, British economic growth and U.S. manufacturing indicators are all due later on Monday, with U.S. employment figures at the end of the week. Anything short of expectations poses a risk to fragile sentiment.

Against a basket of currencies (DXY) the dollar edged higher to 99.165.

The New Zealand dollar dropped as far as $0.6257, very close to a four-year low, as a survey showed sour business sentiment and made a case for a rate cut.

The Australian dollar also drifted lower to $0.6756 on expectations of monetary easing.

With markets largely baking in another rate cut, further moves in the Aussie will likely be driven by the RBA's tone and outlook, said Chris Weston, head of research at brokerage Pepperstone Group in Melbourne.

Traders are expecting a lull in trade-war headlines as China takes a week-long holiday from Tuesday, which marks the 70th anniversary of the People's Republic of China.

China's yuan held steady at 7.1219 per dollar.

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FOREX-Dollar holds firm as FX markets struggle with mixed signals on trade

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The dollar edged lower but held close to its recent highs on Thursday as investors struggled to make sense of U.S. President Donald Trump's mixed signals on a trade deal with China.

Foreign exchange markets were quiet at the European open, with currency pairs little moved but the dollar's resilience this week was a sign of investor nervousness about the global outlook.

"We need new direction," said Neil Mellor, a markets analyst at BNY Mellon, citing a pushback from central banks to markets expecting more monetary stimulus and confusion over whether the United States can strike a deal with China for the current range-bound moves in FX markets.

He said that he favoured the dollar as a safe haven currency in the short-term because of a difficult outlook for the global economy and trade negotiations, especially as central banks signal they "are not prepared to keep on shovelling out liquidity into the market".

"There is a greater downside risk to risk assets," he said.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was last down 0.1% at 98.985 .DXY but was only a whisker away from a two-week high and the two-year peak of 99.37 hit earlier this month.

Trump stoked hopes for a trade deal by telling reporters in New York that the United States and China were having "good conversations" and that an agreement "could happen sooner than you think". the Trump pump, and it works," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at Gain Capital in Singapore.

"But there's not really any major moves either, it's a slight boost to risk," he said, noting traders were also trying to assess the likely direction of a Trump impeachment probe opened by the Democrats on Wednesday.

That initially helped the Australian dollar claw higher, while the New Zealand dollar NZD=D3 kicked ahead further after New Zealand's central bank governor said it was unlikely he would need to use unconventional monetary policy. by 0730 GMT, the Aussie was up only slightly on the day at $0.6753 AUD=D3 , while the yuan was up 0.1% at 7.1241 per dollar in the offshore market CNH=EBS .

The New Zealand dollar was last up 0.4% at $0.6297.

The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0947 EUR=EBS .

The Japanese yen, perceived as a safe haven currency, rose 0.1% to 107.68 yen per dollar JPY=EBS .

Sterling steadied at $1.2354 GBP=D3 after plunging more than 1% on Wednesday as traders fretted about the deepening confrontation in the British parliament over Brexit.

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HDFC Bank is the most valued brand in India, LIC takes second spot

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HDFC Bank beat the crowds to top the list of 75 most valued brands in India, keeping its position intact from the previous year. At second and third spots, too, the old order held its grip. Public sector insurer Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) and IT major Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) retained their second and third ranks in the list of most valued Indian brands.

The big change, however, has been in the overall growth of brand values in the BrandZ 2019 Most Valuable Indian Brands, a report by WPP and Kantar Millward Brown. The total value of the top 75 brands increased to $228.2 billion, growing at a moderate 6 per cent over 2018, far slower than 34 per cent recorded the previous year. The report calculates valuations and ranking by combining companies’ financial data with consumer insight and opinion.

While brands grappled with many challenges this year, a few managed to push valuations up significantly. With a 34 per cent jump in brand valuations, Jio led the band of top risers, a diverse set of brands on the list. Preeti Reddy, CEO South Asia, Insights Division, Kantar, said, “They (Reliance Jio) have built an entire ecosystem around Jio which is feeding into each other and they continue to be disruptive.” Among the other brands that increased their valuations at a significant clip are Infosys, TCS, Maggi, Ola, and others.

HDFC Banksaw its brand value increases five per cent, growing slow but at a steady clip, to keep the top spot. “HDFC has utilised the digital ecosystem well and secondly they were very prudent about their business decisions. 

Banking brands make up the largest share of the BrandZ Top 75, with 23 per cent of the total brand value tied up in that sector. However, in comparison to other countries, where one category dominates the brand ranking (such as France with luxury goods,

US with technology, or Indonesia with banking), India’s top brands are much more evenly dispersed.

Consumer tech, retail are the fastest-growing categories with brand values increasing 30 per cent. Among the high performers in this category, Flipkart saw a sharp 14 per cent spike in its valuations while newcomers to the list, Oyo, Swiggy and Zomato also took a big leap forward. Vodafone was the top ranked newcomer to the list of most valued brands that saw eight new entries in 2019. This is much lower than the 30 newcomers that debuted the list in 2018.

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U.S. Dollar Falls After Posting Biggest Gains in Three Months on Trade Hopes

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The U.S. dollar gained on Thursday in Asia on renewed Sino-U.S. trade hopes.

The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies were down 0.2% to 98.502 by 12:20 AM ET (04:20 GMT).

Sino-U.S. trade hopes reignited after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested an agreement with China might come sooner than anyone thinks, although he didn't offer many specifics.

Just on Tuesday, Trump accused China of unfair trade practices in a speech to the General Assembly at the United Nations in New York.

"It's a pretty decent move really," said Nick Twidale, co-founder of Sydney-based trade finance provider Xchainge, in a Reuters report.

"Markets shrug these things off very, very quickly and we move on to the next stuff. As it moves on, it's going to be interesting, but we have to go back to the fundamentals and fundamentals are going to push the dollar higher over time."

The U.S. dollar recorded its sharpest daily gain in three months following the news, before giving up some of its gains today in Asian trade.

The GBP/USD pair gained 0.2% to 1.2374 today after falling overnight. Prospect of early U.K. elections with just five weeks to go until the Brexit deadline was cited as a headwind for the pound.

On Wednesday, U.K. Attorney-General Geoffrey Cox said a motion for a general election will be brought to parliament “shortly.”

He made the remarks a day after the Supreme Court’s ruling that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s five week suspension of parliament in the run-up to Brexit was unlawful.

The AUD/USD pair inched up 0.2%, while the NZD/USD pair climbed 0.6% on continued upward momentum after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday but said there is scope if it sees the need for it to boost economic growth.

The USD/JPY pair inched down 0.1%.

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Yogi Adityanath is right. Route to UP’s $1 trillion GDP goal passes through hinterland

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A district map of Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, makes for a compelling visual—that of a bull about to charge. Lalitpur in south-central and Sonbhadra in southeast that protrude into the neighbouring states appear strikingly similar to the hooves of a bull getting ready for a big leap.

But when it comes to the financial might, it is Gautam Budh Nagar, a tiny district in the western periphery, which is most bullish among the state’s 75 districts.

This doesn’t come as a surprise. Gautam Buddha Nagar has Noida and Greater Noida, Uttar Pradesh’s showpiece townships just off the national capital, peppered with high-street malls, glitzy corporate towers, and acres and acres of residential complexes. The Taj Expressway, connecting Delhi with Agra, runs right through the district.

Shravasti, in the east, on the other hand, recorded a DGDP of Rs 3,506 crore, 26 times lower than that of Gautam Budh Nagar. Little wonder then that Shravasti is among 117 “Aspirational Districts” that the NITI Aayog has identified for a focussed policy intervention.

For Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, who wants Uttar Pradesh to be a $1-trillion economy with GDP targets identified for each district, it is the laggard districts that will need all the attention and hand-holding.

At Rs 21,906.86 crore, the DGDP of Varanasi, one of the oldest living cities in the world and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s parliamentary constituency, is way behind Gautam Budh Nagar. Amethi, a pocket borough of Congress’s first family’s until this year’s Lok Sabha election when the then party president Rahul Gandhi lost the constituency to Union Textiles Minister Smriti Irani, ranks a lowly 65, with a DGDP of Rs 8,19,474 crore.

Prayagraj, earlier known as Allahabad, and Ayodhya have a lot of catching up to do in terms of economic activity measured by DGDP. Even having state capital hasn’t helped the Lucknow district, which has a DGDP of Rs 44,246.01 crore, not even half of that of Gautam Budh Nagar.

UP districtwise GDP_R

For Uttar Pradesh as well as India to make a decisive leap forward, these backward districts have to figure prominently when policymakers sit down in Lucknow to draw development plans.

According to Indicus Analytics, an economic research and data analytics firm which first came out with district-level GDP figures more than 10 years ago, such data provides granular insights into the Indian economy.

Last year, the Uttar Pradesh government launched the `One District, One Product’ (ODOP) scheme as part of a broader strategy of concentrated agro and industrial development focus on each district, offering an array of fiscal incentives, and credit, marketing and policy support.

While the large corporations housed in Noida are aggressively global, the road to Uttar Pradesh’s $ 1 trillion GDP goal lie in boosting incomes of small enterprises, local artisans and craftsmen, which is what the ODOP scheme seeks to achieve.

According to PHDCCI, an industry chamber, “micro and small units involved in ODOP need institutional intervention for strengthening marketing capabilities. The need of the hour is providing hand holding to micro and small units through formation of Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs)”.

Adityanath’s focus on development at grassroots also fits into what some analysts say is the need o focus on identifying India’s next growth hotspots, away from metropolises.

According to global consulting major McKinsey & Company, there are commercial opportunities for companies to tap beyond the current growth centres, which require a smaller and a discrete approach.

“To get the most from this granular approach, companies need to develop customised strategies for each geographic sliver. To do so, they must map priority geographic segments to product categories and extensions,” McKinsey said in its 2014 report “India’s economic geography in 2025: states, clusters and cities”.

Adityanath’s emphasis on district-level GDP also gels with the “Aspirational Districts” programme of NITI Aayog, the Union government’s think tank, which seeks to improve the socio-economic status of 117 districts from across 28 states.

Eight of these—Balrampur, Shravasti, Bhairach, Siddharth Nagar, Chandauli, Sonbhadra, Fatehpur and Chitrakoot—are in Uttar Pradesh. In terms of DGDP, most of these districts occupy the bottom rung.

Among these “aspirational districts” Shravasti with a DGDP of Rs 3,506 crore is ranked 75th, behind Chitrakoot (74) with a DGDP of Rs 3,674 crore and Balrampur (70) with a DGDP of Rs 6,844 crore.  Chandauli (66) with a DGDP of Rs 7,443 crore, Siddharth Nagar (63) with a DGDP of Rs 8,535 crore, Bahraich (41) with a DGDP of Rs 11,797 crore, Sonbhadra (37) with DGDP of Rs 12,530 crore and Fatehpur is at rank 31 with a DGDP of 14,048.71 crore are the other “aspirational districts” in the UP, according to NITI Aayog.

Central and eastern regions emerge the worst in the state’s district DGDP sweep stakes. The ambition of the turning Uttar Pradesh into a $1 trillion economy—a five-fold jump from the current nearly $200 billion—will depend on these and other laggards leapfrogging into the upper-middle ranks, even as Noida and Greater Noida remain the jewels in the crown.

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