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Canadian Dollar Price: USDCAD Trend Eyes Bank of Canada Rate Decision

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  • Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates unchanged at 1.75%.
  • USDCAD chart shows bears starting to take control.

Q3 2019 Forecasts and Top Trading Opportunities


Bank of Canada (BoC) governor Stephen Poloz is expected to announce that the overnight interest rate will remain unchanged at 1.75% when the central bank meets today. At the last meeting in July, the central bank noted that while the Canadian economy is returning to potential growth, ‘the outlook is clouded by persistent trade tensions’. Financial markets expect no rate change today but are pricing in a roughly 66% chance of a 0.25% interest rate cut at the October 30 meeting which will include the central bank’s latest monetary policy report.

Live Data Webinar: Bank of Canada Rate Decision

Since the last BoC announcement, trade tensions – especially between the US and China – have increased with both sides announcing additional trade tariffs. This backdrop has weighed on the price of oil, which in turn has put downward pressure on the Canadian dollar. The Canadian energy sector accounts for around 11% of nominal GDP and produced revenues of $14.1 billion in 2017.

The daily USDCAD chart shows that the rally that started in mid-July is running out of momentum and this move may continue if the central bank’s press announcement today is more dovish than expected. This week’s price action shows two bearish ‘shooting star’ candles with a long upper shadow and very little lower shadow. Today’s bearish candlestick is more likely due to US dollar weakness, but the chart may be pointing to a retrace back to the 1.3225 – 1.3245 area. The 200-day moving average at 1.3293 stands in the way of this move lower. The CCI indicator shows the pair moving out of overbought territory. To the upside, a break and close above 1.3350 should be watched, before Tuesday’s multi-week high at 1.3383 comes into view.


Canadian Dollar Price: USDCAD Trend Eyes Bank of Canada Rate Decision

IG Client Sentiment data show that 34.0% of retail traders are net-long of USDCAD, a bullish contrarian indicator. However, recent daily and weekly positional changes suggest that USDCAD may soon move lower.

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FOREX-Dollar extends decline after disappointing factory data

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* Euro lifted away from 28-month lows

* Dollar weakness helps emerging market currencies

* Sterling gains on bid to stop no-deal Brexit

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019

The dollar extended its fall on Wednesday following disappointing manufacturing data, helping the euro to recover from more than two-year lows.

Sterling also rallied, recovering some of Tuesday's losses after the latest parliamentary attempt to stop a no-deal Brexit.

The dollar's pullback was prompted by manufacturing activity in the world's biggest economy contracting for the first time in three years last month, data from the Institute for Supply Management published on Tuesday showed. knocked the wind out of a previously rising greenback and spurred a further bond rally as investors increased bets on more Federal Reserve interest rate cuts before the end of 2019.

The dollar was last down 0.2% against a basket of major currencies, its index at 98.803 .DXY , easing from a more than two-year high hit on Tuesday.

"Yesterday's manufacturing survey was very gloomy and confirms that the U.S. is suffering from the global trade and manufacturing downturn, along with everyone else," said Kit Juckes, currency strategist at Societe Generale The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0992 EUR=EBS , pulling further away from $1.0926 - a 28-month low - touched on Tuesday before the weak U.S. data was published.

The European single currency was little moved by the final release of the euro zone Purchasing Managers Index composite survey, which came in slightly better than expected.

The safe-haven yen and Swiss franc fell as some calm returned to markets, helped by reports that Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam would on Wednesday announce the formal withdrawal of an extradition bill that triggered months of unrest. showing growth in China's service sector also boosted investor sentiment.

The yen was down 0.2% at 106.19 yen per dollar JPY=EBS . The Swiss franc dropped 0.3% versus the euro to 1.0858 francs EURCHF=EBS .

The dollar's weakness helped China's offshore yuan CNH=EBS pull away further from record lows plumbed earlier this week. The yuan was last up 0.3% at 7.1553 yuan per dollar.

Emerging market currencies were mostly up on the dollar weakness, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars also seized on the greenback's weakness to rise AUD=D3 NZD=D3 .

"The expectation that the Fed will come to the rescue has increased," said Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney.

"But it's not a capitulation on the dollar. It's just merely stopped the recent rise of the dollar."

The British pound, which on Tuesday fell below $1.20 and to its weakest in three-years, rose 0.5% to the day's high of $1.2157 GBP=D3 .

Against the euro it rallied 0.4% to 90.39 pence EURGBP=D3 .

Lawmakers who defeated Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government late on Tuesday are expected to introduce a bill in parliament seeking to stop Britain from leaving the European Union on Oct. 31 without transitional arrangements.

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EUR/USD has found support and may extend its recovery to 1.1073 – Confluence Detector

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EUR/USD has bounced off the new two-year lows after US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Manufacturing Index dropped below 50 and reflected a contraction in the critical sector. Can the world's most popular currency pair move extend its recovery?

The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that EUR/USD enjoys significant support at 1.0965, where we see a dense cluster including the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day, the Simple Moving Average 10-4h, the previous monthly low, the previous weekly low, the Bollinger Band 1h-Middle, the BB 1d-Lower, the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day, and the BB 15min-Lower. Looking up, some resistance awaits at 1.1016, where the Fibonacci 23.6% one-week meets the SMA 5-1d. 

Several junctures of resistance await on the way up, with the most significant one awaiting at 1.1073, which is the where we see the confluence of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week, the SMA 100-4h, and the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month.

Below 1.0965, the next support line is 1.0890, where the Pivot Point one-month Support 1 and the PP 1d-S3 converge.

Here is how it looks on the tool:

Here is how it looks on the tool:

EUR USD September 4 2019 technical confluence

Confluence Detector

The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies.

This tool assigns a certain amount of “weight” to each indicator, and this “weight” can influence adjacents price levels. These weightings mean that one price level without any indicator or moving average but under the influence of two “strongly weighted” levels accumulate more resistance than their neighbors. In these cases, the tool signals resistance in apparently empty areas.

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India Inc's foreign borrowings more than double to $4.98 billion in July: RBI

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India Inc's foreign borrowings grew over two-fold to $4.98 billion in July over the same month a year ago, according to Reserve Bank data.

Indian firms had raised $2.18 billion in borrowings from overseas markets in July 2018.

Of the total money borrowed by the domestic companies, $3.37 billion was through the automatic route of external commercial borrowing (ECB), $1.56 billion via approval route of ECB and the rest of $50.9 million was raised by issuing masala or rupee denominated bonds.

In the ECB category, the major borrowers tapping the automatic route were Adani Ports And Special Economic Zone Ltd -- which raised $750 million for rupee expenditure and $650 million for refinancing of earlier ECB, ONGC Videsh $500 million for other purposes.

Larsen & Toubro and HPCL-Mittal Energy raised $150 million and $125 million, respectively for rupee expenditure.

Among others, Aditya Birla Housing Finance; L&T Finance; GACL-NALCO Alkalies & Chemicals and India Infoline Finance raised $100 each for on-lending purposes.

In the approval route of ECB, Reliance Industries raised a total of $912.87 million in three different tranches to meet rupee expenditure and import of capital goods while REC Limited raised $650 million for on-lending.

Toyota Financial Services India was the only company that raised $50.86 million by issuing masala or rupee denominated bonds in the overseas market for the purpose of sub-lending.

Forex - U.S. Dollar, Yen Little Changed as Sino-U.S. Trade Tensions Ease

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The U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen were largely flat on Friday in Asia as tensions between China and the U.S. seemingly eased somewhat.

The USD/JPY pair last traded at 106.46 by 11:00 AM ET (03:00 GMT), down 0.03%.

Gao Feng, spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry, said China is willing to negotiate with the U.S. on trade issues “with calm attitude,” adding that Beijing will not retaliate against U.S.’s latest tariff moves for now.

His comments sent global stocks higher and was cited as headwinds for the safe-haven yen, but political crisis in Hong Kong and Middle East supported the Japanese currency.

"There are so many geopolitical risk factors now. Not to mention U.S.-China trade conflicts, we have Brexit, Hong Kong and the Middle East. So we should expect the yen to jump from time to time,U.S. President Donald Trump said some discussions were taking place on Thursday, ahead of a looming deadline for additional U.S. tariffs on Sept. 1.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index was also little changed at 98.477.

Data showed overnight that U.S. second-quarter economic growth slowed to 2%, in line with expectations.

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in September to support the economy in the face of trade risk.

After the release of the data, Trump once again criticized the Fed for not cutting rates enough.

The GBP/USD pair slipped 0.1% to 1.2183 as the looming prospect of a no-deal Brexit kept traders on edge. Prime Minister Boris Johnson decided earlier this week to suspend Britain's parliament for more than a month before Brexit.

The move will limit the time opponents have to derail a disorderly Brexit but also increases the chance that Johnson could face a vote of no-confidence in his government, and possibly an election.The AUD/USD pair was down 0.2% to 0.6710, while the NZD/USD pair traded 0.2% lower to 0.6292.

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Last Updated : Aug 30, 2019 01:06 PM IST | Source: PTI 8.65% interest on EPF to be notified soon: Santosh Gangwar

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The labour ministry will soon notify 8.65 percent rate of interest on Employees' Provident Fund (EPF) for 2018-19 as the finance ministry does not disagree on this rate, said Labour Minister Santosh Gangwar on Friday.

A notification by the labour ministry is required regarding the interest rate for crediting the interest amount into accounts of over 6 crore subscribers.

Besides, it would enable retirement fund body Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) to settle on withdrawal claims on this rate. Now, the EPFO is paying an interest rate of 8.55 per cent for 2018-19 under PF withdrawal claims. The 8.55 per cent interest rate on PF deposits was fixed for 2017-18.

"The finance ministry does not disagree with 8.65 per cent interest on EPF for 2018-19. I believe that it will soon be notified," Gangwar told reporters on the sidelines of a conference on private security guards at FICCI here.

In February, the EPFO's apex decision-making body Central Board of Trustees, headed by the labour minister, had decided to raise the interest rate on EPF to 8.65 per cent for 2018-19, which was the first increase in the past three years.

In April, the Department of Financial Services (DFS), a wing of the finance ministry, had given its concurrence to the EPFO's decision to provide 8.65 per cent rate of interest for 2018-19.

The rate was raised to 8.65 per cent for the previous financial year from 8.55 per cent provided in 2017-18. The EPFO had earlier reduced the interest rate for 2016-17 to 8.65 per cent as compared with 8.8 per cent for 2015-16.

After the finance ministry's concurrence, the income tax department and the labour ministry are required to notify the rate of interest for 2018-19. Thereafter, the EPFO would give directions to its over 136 field offices to credit the rate of interest into subscribers' account and settle their claims accordingly.

According to the EPFO estimates, there would be a surplus of Rs 151.67 crore after providing 8.65 per cent rate of interest for 2018-19 on EPF. There would have been a deficit of Rs 158 crore on providing 8.7 per cent rate of interest on EPF for the previous financial year. That is why the body decided to provide 8.65 per cent rate of interest for 2018-19.

FOREX-Yen firms as risk appetite fades; pound fragile

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The Japanese yen edged higher on Thursday, heading for its biggest monthly rise since May as risk appetite remained on the back foot with investors sceptical on the prospect of a trade-war breakthrough any time soon.

"Investors are still concerned about the trade war and there is little optimism we will see a substantial breakthrough in negotiations," said Esther Maria Reichelt, an FX strategist at Commerzbank (DE:CBKG).

U.S. President Donald Trump's administration on Wednesday made official its extra 5% tariff on $300 billion in Chinese imports and set collection dates of Sept. 1 and Dec. 15. the greenback JPY=EBS , the yen edged 0.2% higher at 105.83 yen. For the month, it is set to gain 2.5% against the dollar, putting it on track for its biggest monthly rise in three months.

"It's very difficult to take on any kind of major risk in this environment," said Chris Weston, head of research at forex brokerage Pepperstone Group, pointing to the inverted yield curve as an indicator of sentiment.Spreads between 10-year U.S. Treasury debt and comparable two-year bond yields inverted to minus 3 bps, its lowest since May 2007.

Sterling remained in the spotlight after Prime Minister Boris Johnson's plan to suspend parliament raised the odds of a no-deal Brexit. GBP/ The British currency GBP=D3 edged a quarter of percent lower at $1.2183, approaching a January 2017 low below $1.2015.

China's onshore spot yuan CNY=CFXS eased slightly to be weaker for an 11th straight session, although a firmer-than-expected central bank fixing helped stem deeper losses. Against a basket of currencies .DXY , the dollar was steady around 98.190.

Elsewhere, the kiwi NZD=D3 was off 0.3% at $0.6318, after touching its lowest since September 2015 at $0.6311.

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Yen rises as resurgent gloom drives bets to safe harbors

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 A risk-off mood bolstered the safe-haven yen on Thursday, with record lows on U.S 30-year Treasury yields holding back the dollar as investors turned bleak on the prospect of a trade-war breakthrough any time soon.

The yen firmed 0.3% by lunchtime in Asian trade to as high as 105.91 per dollar , after the cautious optimism seen in currency markets in the morning gave way to gloom.

The Japanese currency also gained against the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar , which hit a four-year low as business sentiment weakened.

The sterling was flat, nursing losses incurred on Wednesday when fears of a no-deal Brexit surged in response to British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's move to suspend parliament in a bid to limit debate ahead of the Oct. 31 Brexit deadline.

"It's very difficult to take on any kind of major risk in this environment," said Chris Weston, head of research at forex brokerage Pepperstone Group, pointing to the inverted yield curve as an indicator of sentiment.

"We've got a pretty clear idea of what our two "We've got a pretty clear idea of what our two big circuit breakers are - those being a genuine feel toward the Xi-Trump relations and the other one is the Fed getting ahead of the curve," he said on the phone from Melbourne.

"We just don't think any of those are going to be triggered any time soon...we've just been advocating just staying in those core, defensive FX positions for the moment."

China's onshore spot yuan eased slightly, to be weaker for an 11th straight session, although a firmer-than-expected central bank fixing helped stem deeper losses. Against a basket of currencies (DXY) the dollar was steady around 98.190.

Dominating investor concerns is the inverted U.S. Treasury yield curve, in which long-dated yields are lower that short-dated ones, commonly considered a sign of future recession.

Sentiment in the currency market is also likely to be weighed by the Sino-U.S. trade dispute, which remains far from unresolved.

The latest round of tit-for-tat trade-war tariff hikes takes effect on Sunday, with Washington set to levy an extra 5% tariff - announced by President Donald Trump on Twitter last week - on $300 billion in Chinese imports.Retailers across the U.S. warned on Wednesday of price hikes and braced for job losses as a result, while on Thursday Korea outlined its most aggressive spending plan in a decade to buttress its weakening economy.

Yields on 30-year Treasuries (US30YT=RR) and 10-year German bunds both hit a record low as investors scrambled for the safety of government debt.

"The biggest market impact of these new threats is the uncertainty," Hannah Anderson, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management said by email.

"This uncertainty is having the most damaging effect on markets; it constrains investment, slows growth, elevates volatility, and darkens the outlook for investors of all stripes."

The latest gloomy omen came from New Zealand, where ANZ Bank's closely-watched survey of business sentiment showed deepening weakness in both activity and confidence. That suggests aggressive cuts in interest rates are yet to gain any traction.The kiwi was off 0.3% at $0.6318, after touching its lowest since September 2015 at $0.6311.

The pound held steady at $1.2202 on Thursday and was last quoted at 90.82 pence per euro (EURGBP=D3).

The Chinese yuan was close to lows not seen since the global financial crisis, trading onshore at 7.1663 per dollar and offshore a little weaker at 7.1728 per dollar at 0400 GMT.

The yen hit a session high of 105.91 by 0402 GMT. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,542.00 per ounce, after hitting a six-year high on Monday.

The yen and gold are both considered safe-haven assets.

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Forex - New Zealand Dollar Down on Weak ANZ Business Confidence Indicator

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The New Zealand dollar dropped to near four-year lows against its U.S. counterpart after data showed the ANZ Business Confidence indicator slumped to -52.3 in August.

It was the weakest level since April 2008. The NZD/USD pair fell 0.4% to 0.6309 by 12:20 AM ET (04:20 GMT) following the report, lowest level since September 2015.

The Aussie dollar was also hit by the weak data. The AUD/USD pair slipped 0.1% to 0.6728.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index was little changed at 98.132.

In an interview with Bloomberg, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the U.S. does not intend to intervene in currency markets for now.

"Situations could change in the future but right now we are not contemplating an intervention,” 

Chinese negotiators will visit Washington for trade talks, but he declined to confirm whether a previously planned meeting in September would still take place.the governor of the People’s Bank of China, over what the U.S. has deemed manipulation of the yuan.

“We’ve had conversations with the IMF and directly with our counterparts in China, including the governor of the PBOC,” Mnuchin said. “We will have a separate dialog and discussion on currency as part of the trade discussion but separate from the trade discussion.”

An escalation in the trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies has roiled financial markets in recent days after both sides threatened to slap tariffs on each other's goods worth billions of dollars.

Separately, U.S. President Donald Trump continued to criticize the Federal Reserve for not being able to “keep up with the competition,” as he reiterated his stance that the central bank should lower rates.

The safe-haven yen rose today as stock markets traded mostly in the red. The USD/JPY pair was down 0.2% to 105.91.

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Real Estate sector boost expected this week, policy changes in the works

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The package, aimed primarily at home buyers and real estate developers, is expected this week, the paper quoted government officials as saying.

"There have been discussions on a task force for real estate similar to the one for infrastructure projects announced last week. The finance minister spoke about promoting rental housing sector. A new policy is in the works," one of the officials told BS.

Measures being considered include the creation of a task force, easing of interest subvention norms, new rental housing policy, lifting the affordable housing category cap, cutting processing time for housing applications under partial guarantee scheme, and expanding credit reach to small exporters, they added.

The task force will identify and revive stalled projects while the recent circular by the National Housing Board (NHB), prohibiting interest subvention for housing loans, would be under review.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman might also lift the affordable housing category cap in metro cities from the present Rs 45 lakh to Rs 1 crore.

The development follows long-standing demands for regulatory and tax changes as the sector suffered a steady decline in demand and a sharp liquidity crunch over the past four years.

Sitharaman, in her budget, proposed "several reforms to promote rental housing … a model tenancy law to be finalised and circulated to the states."

While announcing the first set of economic measures on August 23, Sitharaman also promised two more packages. The expectations are stronger after the finance minister and Urban Development Minister Hardeep Puri met with industry representatives.

Apart from real estate, the other anticipated announcement is goods and service tax (GST) e-wallet provision for exporters, the report added.

In June, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said that exporters should be able to take more and more export credit in foreign currency. The ministry is now looking at raising the share of foreign currency in total export credit much beyond the present level of about 50 per cent.

"The same has been forwarded to the RBI for consideration as its foreign exchange reserves can be used for providing a line of credit for swap to good banks for this purpose. This will result in cheaper foreign currency loans," a senior official said.

The ministry has also discussed in detail the possibility of easing norms for banks when it comes to lending export credit by extending the cap on banks from the present two percent, the official pointed out.

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