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China's budget deficit hits record $1.1 trillion on Covid zero slump

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The lockdowns, testing and quarantine rules that were key to the Covid Zero policy put a strain on consumer and business spending, pushing the economy close to contraction in the second quarter

China’s broad budget deficit hit a record so far this year, showing how damaging the now abandoned Covid Zero policy and the ongoing housing slump have been to the economy and to the government’s finances.


The augmented fiscal deficit was 7.75 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) in January to November, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from the Ministry of Finance. That was more than double the same period last year and larger than in 2020, when the economy was battered by the initial Covid outbreak and growth was the slowest in decades.


The worsening deficit underscores just how bad the economy was at the end of November, shortly before the government in Beijing effectively scrapped its strict policy of trying to contain Covid infections.


The lockdowns, testing and quarantine rules that were key to the Covid Zero policy put a strain on consumer and business spending, pushing the economy close to contraction in the second quarter. A surge in infections this quarter has already caused a drop in retail sales in October and November.


The Covid policy was also increasingly expensive to maintain. Local governments had to bear huge costs to test and quarantine residents, while their income from land sales and taxes plummeted amid a slump in the housing market.


With Covid infections now sweeping across the country, local governments are unlikely to see an immediate improvement in tax revenue and finances. Healthcare spending is likely to jump as more people fall sick, even if spending on testing and quarantines fall. There’s also little immediate prospect for an improvement in the property market, which will likely keep land sales revenue subdued.


Consumers in some cities are avoiding crowded places, and labor shortages and factory disruptions are expected to increase in coming months as infections spread. Car sales, a rare bright spot for consumption this year, declined for the first time in six months in November, while the fall in home purchases deepened even though local authorities further eased curbs on buying.


Spending Up, Revenue Down


Total income from the general public and government fund budgets was 18.6 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of this year. That was down 3% from a year earlier, a slowdown from the 4.5% drop in the first 10 months. It would have risen 6.1% had it not been for tax rebates the government mostly handed out earlier in the year, according to the finance ministry.


Governments across the country made 715 billion yuan from selling land in November, compared with the 552 billion yuan earned in the previous month but down about 13% from a year earlier. Land sales revenue has slumped by double digits almost every month this year, and may “remain subdued in coming months given developers’ still-tight funding conditions and the ongoing Covid ‘exit wave’,” economists from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. wrote in a report after the data was released.


Revenue from deed taxes slid 23.8% in the first 11 months of the year from the same period in 2021.


Total government spending in the first 11 months was 22.7 trillion yuan, which was up 6.2% from a year earlier and compares with a 6.4% rise in the January-October period. Expenditure under the government fund budget rose 5.5%, decelerating from a 9.8% increase in the first 10 months.


Total fiscal spending is expected to total 26.3 trillion yuan this year, Finance Minister Liu Kun wrote in an article published by the official publication Study Times Monday. That compares with expenditure of 24.6 trillion yuan in 2021.


Why You Should Look for Stock Advice Online

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Do you have any idea why you should look for stock advice online? The stock market is not surely a piece of cake – it is a very intricate, well-organized, but at the same time totally volatile and unpredictable marketplace. So what about online advise? Go for it! Online advice, if it comes from a well trusted source, is the most effective, up-to-date and powerful form of stock market advice available anywhere on earth. You have got to understand that along with stock market knowledge, it is equally important to first acquire first hand stock market experience. This can only be achievable when you take into service a stock broker. Go ahead and hire one and prepare to be his apprentice. Make all your transactions though your stock broker and observe him carefully. Eventually, maybe in a couple of months, some of your stock broker’s perceptions and ploys will have chafed on you. You will at that time be knowledgeable, experienced and self confident enough to take the plunge into the stock market on your own! You should know and understand the different terms of the online stock market as well.

 

Get reliable internet connection

Even if you have enough knowledge and experience of the stock market and are raring to go the whole nine yards alone, you must also have a sufficiently fast and utterly reliable internet connection. There are several real life instances of people having their internet connection suddenly failing when they are making online contracts. A great many of these unfortunate people have had lasting trouble recovering their money lost due to an unstable internet connection. So, it is absolutely essential to have a consistent World Wide Web affiliation – in plain English, get a fast and dependable internet connection as soon as possible!

 

Get valuable online advice

Just the once you have got hold of the requirements of internet stock trading, you can as a final point formulate the hop. However furthermore be sentient that there will be thousands, if not more, of online dealers just like you, waiting to be on the same wavelength. So many online players will certainly effect a very quick change in market scenarios. Before you know, the market will have soared or fallen. So the best thing you can do is to get to be an affiliate of an online traders’ group. This will help you to get valuable online advice and your much required stock market props. Also, you will for the most part undeniably come across hi-tech problems in the vein of a dawdling business deal, grave online passage, or a terrible server. As a result for the most part intellectual activity to do at this juncture is to get hold of a ready backup. A backup will be capable of substituting for the regular connection for as long as necessary. It can be an ordinary touchtone phone line, a fax machine or maybe even your mobile handset.

  

Shape up an individual line

There are numerous websites that provide valuable information about the share market. Important topics like “How to start an account in the stock market”, “How and when to buy/sell” etc are all covered. Shape up an individual line of attack with the intention of you being able to rely on intently. Just the once you have shaped up your personal line of attack of carrying out business, bond devotedly to it. There will be encumbrances – there will be many attackers in the market who will tend to ill-advise you. Don’t advance on shares conditional on a random tip not including thorough examination. You must in no way be frightful. The stock market is very impulsive. The whole market picture might transform in no time at all! It possibly will so take place that the shares you have bought just the other day might be rapidly depreciating in value all of a sudden because of the dip in the stock market. Don’t hastily sell off all those shares immediately. Let your shares remain as they are unless anything elementary is amiss with your trusted company. This is why you should look for stock advice online.

Why Yes Bank shares are up 20% in two days

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Yes Bank shares are in uptrend over past few says despite weakness on Dalal Street. After logging near 11 per cent rise on Friday deals, Yes Bank share price today opened with an upside gap and went on to hit 2-year high of ₹21.15 apiece levels, ascending near 20 per cent in last two trade sessions. 

According to stock market experts, Yes Bank shares are rising after the private lender's disclosure on Friday where it informed Indian bourses about the positive developments in regard to fresh investments by Carlyle Group and Verventa Holdings Limited. They said that Yes Bank share price has given sideways trend breakout on chart pattern and it may go up to ₹28 apiece levels in short to medium term. They advised positional investors to maintain buy-on dips-strategy in the scrip till it is above ₹18 apiece levels.

Speaking on the reason for Yes Bank share price rally, Avinash Gorakshkar, Head of Research at Profitmart Securities said, "Yes Bank shares witnessed strong upside on Friday after the private lender informed Indian bourses about positive developments in regard to fresh investments by Carlyle Group and Verventa Holdings Limited. The private lender has claimed that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has given conditional approval to each investors with respect to the proposed acquisition by each of them of up to 9.99% of paid up share capital of the Yes Bank. This fundamentally strong news is expected to improve asset quality of the bank, which has attracted attraction of market bulls."

Yes Bank share price target

Advising positional investors to maintain 'buy on dips' strategy in regard to Yes Bank shares, Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking said, "Yes Bank shares have given sideways trend breakout at ₹18 apiece levels and it may go up to ₹24 and ₹28 levels in short and medium term. Those who have Yes Bank in their stock portfolio are advised to maintain trailing stop loss at ₹17 and keep on accumulating for ₹24 and ₹28 targets."

For those who want to buy Yes Bank stocks, Sumeet Bagadia of Choice Broking said, "Yes Bank shares have already surged a lot. So, one should wait for the profit booking trigger and once it settles down above ₹18 levels, then only one can buy Yes Bank shares for ₹24 and ₹28 targets maintaining strict stop loss at ₹17 levels."

Yes Bank news that fueled stock price

In its latest exchange communication, Yes Bank said, "This is in relation to the proposed investment by CA Basque Investments (CA Basque Investments is part of the group of entities doing business globally as ‘The Carlyle Group’) and Verventa Holdings Limited (affiliate of funds advised/managed by Advent) (each, an “Investor" and collectively, the “Investors") in the equity shares of face value Rs. 2 (Rupees Two only) each and share warrants of Yes Bank Limited (the “Bank" and together with the foregoing, the “Subscription Securities")," adding, "Further to the Reserve Bank of India, issuing a conditional approval to each Investor with respect to the proposed acquisition by each of them of up to 9.99% of paid up share capital of the Bank through subscription to equity shares and share warrants of the Bank vide separate letters dated November 30, 2022, we wish to hereby inform that the Bank is now in receipt of two further letters (separate to each investor) from the RBI in relation to the proposed investment. Pursuant to which, the Bank shall now engage with the Investors for the completion of the proposed capital raise, subject to various regulatory compliances and conditions precedent as per the respective Investment Agreements."

Sula Vineyards raises Rs 288.10 crore from anchor book ahead of IPO

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India's largest wine producer and seller Sula Vineyards on December 9 said it has garnered Rs 288.10 crore from anchor investors, ahead of its initial public offering.

The company in its BSE filing said it has finalised allocation of 80.70 lakh shares to anchor investors, at the upper end of the price band.

The price band for the offer, which will open for subscription on December 12, has been fixed at Rs 340-357 per share. The public issue will close on December 14.

Total 22 investors bought shares of the company via anchor book including marquee participants - Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Goldman Sachs, New York State Teachers Retirement System, Ashoka India Equity Investment Trust Plc, Segantii India Mauritius, Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas Arbitrage, and Citigroup Global Markets Mauritius.

Domestic investors like Aditya Birla Sun Life Trustee, HDFC Mutual Fund, SBI Mutual Fund, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance, HDFC Life Insurance, Aditya Birla Sun Life Insurance, and Max Life Insurance also bought shares in the company.

"Out of the total allocation to the anchor investors, 25.21 lakh shares were allocated to 3 domestic mutual funds through a total of 5 schemes," Sula Vineyards said.

Sula Vineyards aims to raise more than Rs 960 crore by issuing over 2.69 crore shares via IPO. It is entirely an offer for sale by promoter Rajeev Samant, and investors Cofintra SA, Verlinvest SA, Verlinvest France SA, Saama Capital III Ltd, SWIP Holdings, and Haystack Investments.

Reliance Industries makes rare buy of Russian naphtha, ups fuel oil imports

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India's Reliance Industries, operator of the world's largest refining complex, is snapping up Russian refined fuels, including rare purchases of naphtha, after some Western buyers stopped Russian imports, trade flows data from Refinitiv showed.


Western sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine have led to an emergence of rare trade routes for Russian crude and refined products that were mainly sold to European countries.


India imported about 410,000 tonnes of naphtha, used for making petrochemicals, in Sept-Oct, the Refinitiv data showed.


Of this figure, Reliance received about 150,000 tonnes from the Russian ports of Ust-Luga, Tuapse and Novorossiysk during the two months, the data showed.


The private refiner did not buy Russian naphtha in 2020 and 2021. Its annual imports of Russian naphtha were restricted to just one parcel in four years to 2019, the data showed.


The data showed a panamax carrier Okyroe sailing towards India laden with about 59,000 tonnes of Russian naphtha.


"With European countries shutting down Russia, they need to find outlets for their naphtha," a trader based in India said, referring to Russian firms.


Russian naphtha is being sold at lower premiums to countries like India, two Asian naphtha traders said.


FUEL OIL IMPORTS SURGE


Reliance, its two plants together capable of processing 1.4 million barrels of oil a day, has emerged as a key buyer of Russian oil since Moscow's February military action in Ukraine.


It also buys straight run fuel oil from countries, including Iraq and Russia, to process at cokers in the two refineries in the western Indian state of Gujarat to boost refining margins.


Reliance's fuel oil imports from Russia have surged to a record 3 million tonnes since the beginning of this fiscal year in April, versus about 1.6 million for all of 2021/22, Refinitiv data shows.


Reliance is expected to receive about 409,000 tonnes of fuel oil in December, the data showed.


Reliance did not respond to Reuters emails seeking comments.


Mission Prarambh | Vikram-S takes off: All you need to know about India's first private sector rocket

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The country's first privately developed rocket Vikram-S blasted off on its maiden flight from the Indian Space Research Organisation’s Sriharikota spaceport, about 115 kms from Chennai, at 11.30 am on November 18.

The Mission Prarambh (the beginning) is a major milestone in India's space journey, making Skyroot Aerospace the first private company to launch its rocket two years after the sector was opened to private players.

Named after Vikram Sarabhai, the founder of India’s space programme, Vikram-S carries three satellites, including one by SpaceKidz India called FunSat, parts of which were developed by school students.

Its previous November 12 launch date was called off due to bad weather.

The Vikram rockets will be able to carry between 290 kg and 560 kg payloads into sun-synchronous polar orbits. The rocket is one of the world's first few all-composite rockets that has 3-D printed solid thrusters for spin stability of the launch vehicle.

This launch will aid in the validation of many technologies for Skyroot Aerospace's other launch vehicles in the Vikram series, such as Vikram I/II/III, and will also play an important role in determining when Vikram I will launch next year.

(This is a developing story. Keep following the space for updates.)

Crunchy debut for Bikaji Foods as shares open 7.5% above IPO price

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Bikaji Foods International: Bikaji Foods International to make a debut on November 16. The country's third largest ethnic snacks company will make its grand debut on the bourses on November 16. The issue price has been fixed at Rs 300 per share.

Snacks company Bikaji Foods made a firm start on the bourses on November 16 as the stock traded 7.6 percent above the IPO price of Rs 300, listing at Rs 321.15 on the BSE and at Rs 322.80 on the National Stock Exchange.

The Rs 881-crore initial public offering (IPO) was subscribed 26.67 times during the November 3-7 period backed by qualified institutional buyers. QIBs subscribed more than 80 times their quota of shares and high net-worth individuals over seven times. The portions set aside for retail investors and employees were subscribed 4.77 and 4.38 times.

The ethnic snacks company had fixed the price band for the issue at Rs 285-300 a share.

Analysts like that the company leads in its core states (Rajasthan, Assam, and Bihar) and boasts an international footprint, a healthy top line and a strong management team

Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Rishabh Jain, CFO, Bikaji Foods said, “We are looking at double-digit margin in the second half of this year. We don’t need major capex for next 3-4 years. Core markets are 72 percent of total business and we will be focussing on growing that. Uttar Pradesh is the biggest market for us.”


Revenue from operations grew 22.90 percent to Rs 1,610.96 crore for FY22 from a year ago. However, net profit declined to Rs 76.03 crore in FY22 as against Rs 90 crore in FY21 on the back of high input costs. “Sustainability of margins going forward amidst stiff competition raises concerns,” said Manoj Dalmia, founder and director, Proficient Equities.

Bikaji Foods competes with Haldiram’s, the market leader in traditional savouries and snacks in India. Owners of Haldiram's are related of the promoters of Bikaji Foods. Bikanerwala Foods, Balaji Wafers, Prataap Snacks, DFM Foods, Pepsi and ITC are the other players in the segment.


COP27 | Five issues that could see developed and developing nations locking horns over

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Many developed countries, such as the United States, have opposed looking at finance for loss and damage as a ‘compensation’ for damages, and blocked negotiations on providing funds for itCOP27 | Five issues that could see developed and developing nations locking  horns over


Climate Change negotiations, formally called the 27th edition of Conference of Parties (COP27), begin on November 6 at Sharm El-Sheikh in Egypt.

To understand what issues will be the most difficult to resolve at COP27, we reached out to several Climate Change negotiators from developing countries. Here are five of the issues:

Climate Finance

In 2010, rich countries committed to providing $100 billion per year to poor countries by 2020. During COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, the rich countries admitted to have failed to mobilise these funds. The poor countries will ramp up pressure on the rich to deliver.

Then, there will be debates to pace up the work on deciding what should be the size of total funds to be mobilised. To begin with, decide a definition of what constitutes ‘climate finance’. The Like Minded Developing Countries group, which includes both India and China, has stressed on defining climate finance to ensure that rich countries are held accountable for their commitments. The absence of a definition has allowed rich countries to greenwash their finances, and also pass off loans as climate-related aid.

Loss And Damage

Irreversible damages caused due to Climate Change constitutes what is universally accepted as loss and damage . This includes extreme weather events, sea level rise, loss of biodiversity, and increase in temperature. Developing countries are more vulnerable to these events. But who will pay for the damages? To whom, and how? This year, as countries grapple with these questions, the stress will be on arranging funds that pays for these damages. Many developed countries, such as the United States, have opposed looking at this as a ‘compensation’ for damages, and blocked negotiations on providing funds for it.

Many developing countries are keen to see the establishment of a mechanism this year at Egypt to deliver funds to countries that suffer inevitable economic losses from Climate Change.

Article 2.1(c) the Paris Agreement

Article 2.1(c) of the Paris Agreement (PA) says that climate finance should be tied to low emissions-based development. This means that climate finance would be conditional on how funds are used; whether they’re being used for development that involves burning ‘dirty’ fossil fuels, or not.

Poor countries contest that this makes Article 2.1(c) ambiguous — as it would depend on how ‘low emissions-based development’ is defined. Say, for India, will funds be available for clean coal technologies or will that technology also get termed as dirty? This ambiguity also leads to inequalities in the distribution of funds.

Rich country groups, like the European Union, want a discussion on 2.1(c) as they feel it has not received due attention, and prevents everyone from building a clear understanding of how climate finance should be channelled.

Several large developing countries fear it’s a way of dictating their future economic trajectories, and even forcing them to adopt costly technologies that the rich nations want to sell without meeting their climate obligations to provide funds.

Global Goal On Adaptation

Adaptation means the ability of a country to respond to or deal with the impact of Climate Change. In 2015, under the PA, all nations decided to have a Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) to increase the capacities of countries to adapt to Climate Change. The goal is still being worked out. The talks will see some trenchant arguments over:


  • What criteria would be used to understand which country is more vulnerable?

  • How will this goal be implemented?

  • Where will the money come from?

Mitigation Work Program

At COP26, countries decided to start a new channel of negotiations called the Mitigation Work Program (MWP). Rich nations were keen upon it. Mitigation here implies reducing emissions.

Developing countries, however, argue that this channel of negotiations — the MWP — replicates the work that will be done under another one, called the Global Stocktake. The Global Stocktake is a formal and more holistic exercise to assess global progress on all commitments by nations — which includes finance, technology, mitigation and adaptation — they have made under the PA.

Developing countries worry that the MWP is being engineered to push them to constantly revise their climate targets without enhancing the supply of technology and finance for them. This will have an adverse impact on poor countries who do not have the money to invest in building expensive technologies.

COP27 | Debt-for-climate swaps in times of economic crisis

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Developed economies could write off a developing economy’s debts, unburdening them of repayments and interest, allowing them to redirect the money towards supporting their own loss, and damage costsCOP27 | Debt-for-climate swaps in times of economic crisis

With just a few days to go until the opening of COP27 of the UNFCCC, and with every day marked by multiple climate disasters in some part of the world or other, developing and vulnerable countries are set to put the spot light on their demand to the rich world to deliver on the promised and new climate finance to help them mitigate, adapt, and survive.

In the lead is the V20 group of finance ministers, who have announced their intent to stop payment on a combined $685 billion in debt until the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank address Climate Change the way their nations see fit. Their goal is to create a plan to swap some of their debt for climate adaptation and conservation projects.

Formed in 2015, the V20 group of finance ministers is a dedicated co-operation initiative of 58 economies systematically vulnerable to Climate Change. It is currently chaired by Ken Ofori-Atta, Finance Minister of the Republic of Ghana.

The UN Conference on Trade and Development research shows that regions facing higher vulnerability to Climate Change are more likely to suffer from severe indebtedness. High debt payments mean countries have fewer resources for mitigating and adapting to Climate Change. Yet Climate Change is increasing their vulnerability, and that can raise their sovereign risk, increasing the cost of borrowing. Declining productive capacity and tax base can lead to higher debt risks. It’s a vicious cycle.

With the economic situation worsening in all developing economies countries, international organisations are talking about “debt-for-climate swaps” to help tackle both problems at the same time. UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed mentioned debt-for-climate swaps ahead of COP27 as one option for refinancing countries’ “crippling” debt. Developed economies could write off a developing economy’s debts, unburdening them of repayments and interest, allowing them to redirect the money towards supporting their own loss, and damage costs.

A report by the European Network on Debt and Development (Eurodad) said 37 island and coastal countries that are home to some 65 million people, received just $1.5 billion in climate finance between 2016 and 2020. Over the same period, 22 of the nations paid more than $26.6 billion to their external creditors. Public debt levels in the island states had risen from an average of near 66 percent of gross domestic product in 2019 to nearly 83 percent in 2020, and were set to remain above 70 percent until 2025.

The average debt for low- and middle-income countries, excluding China, reached 42 percent of their gross national income in 2020, up from 26 percent in 2011. For countries in Latin America, and the Caribbean, the annual payments just to service that debt averaged 30 percent of their total exports.

One thing is clear, without substantial debt relief, debtor countries are forced to accelerate natural resource exploitation to pay the debt, side-lining these environmental ambitions, and hindering future economic security. It is, therefore, imperative to align debt restructuring with climate and development goals.

Debt-for-climate swaps allow countries to reduce their debt obligations in exchange for a commitment to finance domestic climate projects with the freed-up financial resources.

They have been used since the late 1980s to preserve the environment and address the liquidity crisis in developing countries, including Bolivia, Costa Rica, and Belize. Belize, for example, was able to lower its debt in exchange for committing to designate 30 percent of its marine areas as protected areas, and to spend $4 million a year for the next two decades on marine conservation under a complex debt-for-nature swap. While debt-for-nature swaps have been used mostly for conservation, the same concept could be expanded to Climate Change mitigation and adaptation activities.

A country’s debt rests with many creditors, ranging from multilateral funds to other countries. Each would have to be engaged and negotiated with to excuse the outstanding debt making difficult calls on which country receives debt relief first, and on what basis.

Some finance experts have suggested that debt-for-climate swaps could be structured in a way that could also encourage private-sector bond holders to exchange the national debt they hold for carbon offsets.

Debt cancellation mechanisms may bring relief to developing nations that are struggling with the impacts of Climate Change. However, rushing into such an ambitious policy could be disastrous without a rigorous feasibility study, and careful planning. Any agreement to cancel debt would likely require the excusing parties to be assured that the money will reach the most vulnerable communities on the ground and not be swallowed up by corruption or internal bureaucracies.

Services sector picks up pace in October as PMI rises to 55.1

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India's services PMI for October has come in above the key level of 50 for the 15th month in a row


India's services sector picked up pace in October as the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for last month edged up from September's six-month low.

Data released on November 3 by S&P Global showed the services PMI rose to 55.1 in October from 54.3 in September.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion in activity while a sub-50 print signals contraction.

The October print is the 15th month in a row that the services PMI has come in above the key level of 50.

"Favourable demand for services continued to underpin increases in new business and output at the start of the third fiscal quarter. Moreover, rates of expansion quickened from September's six-month lows. Buoyed by the ongoing recovery in new work, service providers again took on extra staff, with an improvement in business confidence also supporting hiring activity," S&P Global noted.

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