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Taxes absorb 58% telco revenues in nation with lowest tariff: Voda-Idea CEO

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Vodafone IdeaApart from being impacted by one of the highest visible levies in the world, Indian telcos have a large hidden cost due to which 58 percent of their revenues become liable for government taxes,  CEO Akshaya Moondra said. Arguing the industry quickly needs to make massive capital investments for migration of technology, he said the burden on the telecom sectr needs to be reduced fast.

"We have 18 per cent  and 12 per cent licence fees and spectrum use charges. This 30 per cent is very visible to everyone. What is not very visible is that the price of spectrum, if converted to an annuity value and calculated as a percentage of revenue, adds another 28 per cent of industry revenue (as a cost)," Moondra said while speaking at the CEOs conclave at the sixth India Mobile Congress.

"So, if you take the industry revenue of Rs 231 crore and you calculate the total value of the spectrum given out, which is close to Rs six trillion today, the annuity value of that payment comes to 28 per cent of revenue, on top of the visible costs. Therefore, 58 percent of revenue is reflected as government levies in a country where the tariffs are the lowest," he explained.

Moondra said the operational cash generation of telcos can be released for investments if the government reduces the tax burden.

"With each transition of technology, especially from 4G to 5G, the data being carried by the networks is massive. This data cannot be carried wirelessly, you need fibre to carry it. Unfortunately the right-of-way regulations in the country have been very difficult. The government has taken some steps towards rectifying that. But if  is to be successful in India, it is very important that this right-of-way mess which exists today is sorted out," he added.

New opportunities

Moondra said that  brings with it features like low latency, ultra low latency, massive machine-type communication, and the ability to slice networks.

"These will contribute to automating manufacturing in a manner that was not possible earlier. Over the next 2-3 years, manufacturing, including internet-of-things, would be one of the key drivers of technology being deployed for the betterment of society, and for improving efficiency and productivity," he added.

Latency specifies the end-to-end communication delay, measuring the time between the sending of a given piece of information and the corresponding response.  can be exploited to reduce network latency. Latency can be identified in the time gap between the moment a “stop” button is clicked and the instant in which a remotely driven vehicle actually starts braking. Experts say reducing the latency experienced by the end users from hundredths of a second to a few milliseconds can have an unexpected impact, leading to a real digital revolution.

Madhusudhan Mysore, CEO & Executive Chairman,  Transformation Services (TCTS) said the massive level of investment expected in 5G is backed up by a number of established use cases. "It could be a consumer or industry use case. But the business implications are massive. The buyer is going to be the strategic person. It (5G) is no more jut a technological or IT-infrastructure conversation. It is becoming part of the boardroom's business strategy," he said.

"4G deployment has grown from nine per cent in 2016 to 68 per cent now. That is phenomenal, with a 15-fold growth in data consumption. Indians consume 15 Exabytes of data each month," Salil Raje, SVP Data Center & Communications Group at American multinational semiconductor maker AMD said. One Exabyte equals 1 billion Gigabytes.

He said India needs to pool in more talent into the hardware processing sector if it wants to sustainably expand and grow its export from the sectors. "We at AMD have 6,000-7,000 engineers in India, but we need to bring in a lot more talent," Raje said.

"We need to start thinking about private 5G which is extremely important in the areas of education and healthcare. Because it can bring quick impact to all these businesses and show the real value of 5G. Private 5G refers to managed services for deploying, operating, and scaling private cellular networks on premises with integrated hardware and software.

However, some business leaders said that newer networks that are programmable to use new opportunities for monetizing 5G are the need of the hour. "People are saying that 5G represents big investments, but Average Revenue Per User (ARPUs) are southbound while capital expenditure and operating expenditure is northbound. We need to get these curves going in the opposite direction," Puneet Sethi, Senior Vice President & General Manager at American telecommunication software company Mavenir said.

Touted as the largest telecom, media, and technology forum in Asia, the four-day long India Mobile Congress is jointly organised by the  (DoT) and  (COAI).



Share Market Closing Note

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 Share Market Closing Note

Equity markets were choppy on Monday as global mood remained sombre, and investors booked profit after Fridays 2-per cent rally. The S&P BSE Sensex gyrated within a band of 771 points, before settling at 56,789, down 638 points or 1.11 per cent. The NSE Nifty50, too, closed 207 points, or 1.21 per cent, lower at 16,887. The index hit a high of 17,114.65, and a low of 16,921.25 during the day. 

Adani Enterprises was the biggest Nifty dragger as it dropped 9 per cent. This was followed by selling in Eicher Motors, Maruti Suzuki, Adani Ports, Hindalco, Tata Consumer Products, HUL, Kotak Bank, ITC, HDFC Life, Britannia, SBI, and Tata Motors. All these stocks fell between 2 per cent and 6 per cent.

On the upside, ONGC, Cipla, Coal India, Dr Reddys Labs, BPCL, Divis Labs, and Bharti Airtel helped trim losses. 

The broader markets declined in tandem with benchmarks with the BSE MidCap, and SmallCap indices dipping 1.24 per cent, and 0.5 per cent, respectively. Overall, there were roughly 1,400 stocks in the green on the BSE, as against over 2,100 stocks in the red. Volatility index -- India VIX -- surged over 7 per cent today.

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Topic :- Time:3.10 PM

Just In:

Zee offers to shut down major entertainment channel for merger with Sony.

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Topic :- Time:3.00 PM

Nifty spot close above 16900 level will result in some upmove in the market in coming sessions and close below above mentioned level will mean some further decline in the Nifty. Avoid open positions for tomorrow

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Topic :- Time:2.30 PM

GOLD Trading View:

GOLD is trading at 50420.If it manages to trade and sustain above 50480-50500 levels then expect some quick upmove in it and if it breaks and trade below 50380 level then some decline can follow in it.

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Topic :- Time:2.00 PM

Nifty is declining. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 16960 level then expect some further upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 16920 level then some decline can follow in the Nifty.

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Topic :- Time:2.00 PM

Nifty is declining. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 16960 level then expect some further upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 16920 level then some decline can follow in the Nifty.

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Topic :- Time:1.30 PM

COPPER Trading View:

COPPER is trading at 642.55.If it holds below 645-646 level then expect some decline in it and it is likely to test 638-636 levels quite soon and if it manages to trade and sustain above 646 level then some upmove can follow in it.

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Topic :- Time:1.20 PM

Just In:

Zydus Lifesciences gets USFDA nod for generic drug.

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Topic :- Time:1.00 PM

Nifty is rangebound. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17060 level then some upove can be seen in the market and if it breaks and trade below 17000 level then some decline can follow in the Nifty.

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Topic :- Time:12.30 PM

NATURALGAS Trading View:

NG is trading at 548.50.If it manages to hold above 544 level then expect some further upmove in it and only below 544 it can slide down. Buy on decline till it holds above 544 is recommended.

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Topic :- Time:12.00 PM

After negative start nifty is still trading in red zone. Nifty spot if breaks and trade below 17000 level then expect some further decline in the market and if it manages to trade and sustain above 17060 level then some upmove can follow in Nifty.

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Topic :- Time:11.30 AM

News Wrap up:

1. Sensex trims losses, down 150pts; Nifty50 below 17,050

2. Manufacturing PMI dips to 3-month low of 55.1 in September on poor demand

3. $1.2-trn PM Gati Shakti plan can snatch away factories from China

4. Hotels sold out as big fat Indian weddings recover from Covid shock

5. Reliance Jio may not charge a premium for its 5G services initially

6. Xiaomi says 84% of Rs 5,551 cr seized by ED was royalty payment to Qualcomm

7. Nykaa soars 11% after board approves 5:1 bonus share

8. RITES hits all-time high on healthy outlook; stock climbs 15% in 3 days



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India's largest fintech M&A deal falls through: PayU calls off BillDesk buy

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The acquisition of BillDesk for a total consideration of $4.7 billion had been announced on August 31 last yearBillDesk PayU

The biggest merger & acquisition (M&A) deal in the Indian financial technology space has fallen through, with Prosus-backed  calling off the acquisition of BillDesk. The acquisition, for a total consideration of $4.7 billion, had been announced on August 31, 2021.

In a statement issued on Monday, Prosus said: “Closing of the transaction was subject to the fulfilment of various conditions precedent, including approval by the  (CCI).  secured CCI approval on September 5, 2022. However, certain conditions precedent were not fulfilled by the September 30, 2022, long stop date, and the agreement has terminated automatically in accordance with its terms and, accordingly, the proposed transaction will not be implemented.”

On August 31, 2021, Prosus had announced that an agreement had been reached between  Payments Private Limited (PayU), a subsidiary of Prosus, and the shareholders of the Indian digital payments provider BillDesk.

While the deal got a go-ahead from the CCI only in September, it was yet to receive the approval of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The process was to take at least 45 days.

Prosus, a long-term investor and operator in India, has invested close to $6 billion in Indian technology  since 2005. It said it remained committed to the Indian market and growing its existing businesses within the region. Some of its other investments include Meesho, Byju’s, DeHaat, Mensa Brands and Good Glamm Group.

This acquisition would have made PayU the biggest player in the digital payment (B2B) segment. At the time of acquisition announcement, PayU India head Anirban Mukherjee had told Business Standard that the synergies of both the  would lead to more new products being launched in the market.

“We do know where some of the synergies are. For instance, they are very strong in bill payments in the government and financial services.

We are much more focused on e-commerce and SMEs. There are synergies where their products apply to our customers and vice versa. Like LazyPay can go into their checkout pages. The bigger conversation will happen once we close this deal. I feel this type of scale can drive a different level of innovation and access to the market. We have a lot of complementary strengths and I am hoping that we will have lots of ideas on taking this to drive digitisation of the last mile much faster in India,” he had said.

During the announcement, PayU had estimated that the combined entity would process total payment values (TPV) of $152 billion based on FY21 numbers.BillDesk is one of the largest players in the payment aggregator space, especially with its early-mover advantage as well as a strong hold in the utility payment space. Industry estimates suggest BillDesk’s market share to be in the 25-30 per cent range. The second-largest players is Razorpay, with a share of around 20 per cent.

Festive demands up airfares by 20-30% on key routes across country

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The hike in airfare prices is a result of the increased cost of aviation turbine fuel, according to ixigo's data

Delhi airport, air travel, passengers, coronavirus

Increased demand during the ongoing festival season has caused airfares on major routes across the nation to increase by 20 per cent to 30 per cent, reported The Hindu Businessline.

Research by ixigo, an Indian AI-based online travel portal, shows that typical airfares have increased by 20–30 per cent this year on popular routes as a result of the increase in aviation turbine fuel (ATF). Around  and Diwali, EaseMyTrip has also seen a surge in airfares on metro routes.

Aloke Bajpai, Group CEO & Co-founder of the IPO-bound OTA  said to The Hindu Businessline, “With  and  just around the corner, excitement for the festival season is at its peak. Flight searches have risen 25-30 per cent for leisure travel for  week compared to last year.”

Cleartrip’s data also revealed 23 per cent higher bookings in the same period.

Patna, Mumbai, Jaipur, Ahmedabad, Varanasi, Hyderabad, Pune, Goa, Bagdogra and Dehradun are among the top 10 leisure destinations for travel between October 01 and October 24, found the ixigo’s data.

Customer confidence has now increased as the majority of eligible citizens of India have received their booster vaccinations and the virus's impact has decreased.

This has encouraged airlines to make up for the lost revenues over the previous two years, which is supported by the raising of the airfare cap on August 31.

 has predicted that due to increasing demand for travel, last-minute prices for well-travelled routes will experience a sharp increase in airfares. For instance, on travel dates shortly before Diwali, one-way rates for routes like New Delhi to Patna, which are typically approximately Rs 5,000, might reach as high as Rs 8,000-13,000.

However, there is a decrease in airfare between  and after Diwali in an effort to prevent further financial hardship for its consumers. Along with this,  (OTAs) and airlines are providing their clients with flash bargains and offers.

According to Cleartrip spokesperson, there are sectors where prices have dropped and there are expensive fares too.

Manufacturing PMI edges down to 55.1 in September

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India's manufacturing PMI for September has come in above 50 for the 15th month in a rowManufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index jumps to 55.3 in July

India's manufacturing activity lost some momentum in September, with S&P Global's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edging down to 55.1 from 56.2 in August, data released on October 3 showed.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion in activity, while a sub-50 print is a sign of contraction.

This is the 15th consecutive 50-plus print for the manufacturing PMI.

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Watch: Elon Musk showcases humanoid robot at Tesla AI event

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Tesla AI Day: Elon Musk has said Tesla's robot business will be worth more than its cars.Tesla CEO Elon Musk showcases humanoid robot at event | Arab News PK

Tesla CEO Elon Musk showcased his much-touted humanoid robot 'Optimus' at the electric vehicle maker's "AI Day" event on Friday.

The billionaire has said a robot business will be worth more than its cars, hoping to expand beyond self-driving cars that have not yet become a reality despite his repeated promises.

A prototype of the robot walked on stage and waved to the seated audience. A video of the robot carrying a box, watering plants and moving metal bars in the automaker's factory was shown.

"Our goal is to make a useful humanoid robot as quickly as possible," Musk said at the event being held at a Tesla office in Palo Alto, California.

Musk is also expected to discuss Tesla's long-delayed self-driving technology. In May, Musk said that the world's most valuable carmaker would be "worth basically zero" without achieving full self-driving capability, and it faces growing regulatory probes, as well as technological hurdles.

"There will be lots of technical detail & cool hardware demos," Musk wrote on Twitter late on Wednesday, adding the event was aimed at recruiting engineers.

Tesla's live demonstration record is mixed. Launches typically draw cheers, but in 2019 when Musk had an employee hurl a steel ball at the armored window of a new electric pickup truck, the glass cracked.

The key test for the robot is whether it can handle unexpected situations.

Musk announced Tesla's plan for humanoid robots at its AI day in August last year and delayed this year's event from August to have its robot prototype working, with a plan to start production possibly next year.

Tesla teased the unveiling of the bot on social media with an image of metallic robotic hands making a heart shape. But building human-like, versatile hands that can manipulate different objects is extremely challenging, said Heni Ben Amor, a robotics professor at Arizona State University.

Initially, Optimus, an allusion to the powerful and benevolent leader of the Autobots in the Transformers media franchise, would perform boring or dangerous jobs, including moving parts around Tesla factories or attaching a bolt to a car with a wrench, according to Musk.

"There's so much about what people can do dexterously that's very, very hard for robots. And that's not going to change whether the robot is a robot arm or whether it's in the shape of a humanoid," Jonathan Hurst, chief technology officer at Agility Robotics, a humanoid robot firm, told Reuters.

Musk has said that in the future robots could be used in homes, making dinners, mowing the lawn and caring for the elderly, and even becoming a "buddy" for humans or a sex partner.

He is due at Friday's event to give updates on Tesla's much-delayed plan to launch self-driving cars, and on its high-speed computer, Dojo, which was unveiled last year and the company has said is integral to its development of self-driving technology.

Musk has said he expects Tesla will achieve full self-driving this year and mass produce a robotaxi with no steering wheel or pedal by 2024.

At an "Autonomy" event in 2019, Musk promised 1 million robotaxis by 2020 but has yet to deliver such a car.

Turbulence in the bond market: What does it mean for investors?

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Risk-reward is looking favourable for investors as absolute yields have risen considerably over the past six months and now give a reasonable safety cushion to absorb mark to market volatility.

Turbulence in the bond market: What does it mean for investors?

Vikas Garg, Head of Fixed Income at Invesco Mutual Fund

Year 2022 is proving to be yet another year dominated by unprecedented events causing heightened volatility across global financial markets. While the year started on a positive note with many countries moving out of Covid-led disruptions, it was soon eclipsed by un-anticipated Russia-Ukraine conflict leading to a significant surge in global commodity prices and multi-decade high inflationary pressures in many developed countries.

Central bank US Fed has embarked upon aggressive monetary policy tightening led by steep policy rate hikes and quantitative tightening to tame inflation, thereby triggering massive dollar rally and forcing many other so-called safe haven currencies to go into tailspin.

Other key central banks are also undertaking fast paced rate hikes to control domestic inflation/currency. Consequently, global interest rates have remained extremely volatile during the year with an upward bias as market participants have struggled to gauge the inflation trajectory.

India has also seen a paradigm shift in interest rates during the year. RBI has already undertaken 190 basis point rate hike in policy repo rate and has withdrawn systemic liquidity to a great extent in response to the elevated inflation trajectory. Debt investors have been adversely impacted with high mark to market hit as domestic interest rates have hardened sharply during the year with a flattening bias.

Global backdrop continues to worsen with more rate hikes expected by the US Fed over the next few months. Indian fixed income has remained largely insulated to global spillovers on the strength of domestic stability, although the safety cushion has depleted rapidly with forex reserve falling to $524.52 billion and as India’s current account deficit remains high.

Further with FPI outflow of more than Rs 2 lakh crore year-till-date, rupee has depreciated sharply and crossed 83 against USD for the first time even as the RBI intervened to smoothen forex volatility. Much awaited inclusion of Indian G-Sec into global bond indices will now be reviewed by index providers in 2023 only as some of the operational aspects still need to be resolved with the India government.

RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has clearly articulated its concern on inflation which is reflected in retention of inflation forecasts at 6.70 percent for FY23. Domestic CPI inflation touched the 7 percent mark again in August 2022 compared with 6.71 percent in July, marginally higher than market expectations led by sharp rise in select food items such as cereals, pulses, and milk.

Core inflation remained elevated and came in at 6.1 percent YoY versus 6 percent in previous month. Supply side disruptions, geopolitical tensions, erratic rainfall, commodity prices & improving domestic demand conditions pose risks to inflation outlook, while growth seems to be fairly supported by domestic factors.

Also read - Medanta IPO: Carlyle to make full exit; strikes pre-IPO deal with RJ Corp, SBI MF and Novo Holdings

Led by global monetary policy tightening as well as still elevated inflationary pressures, we expect MPC to continue with more rate hikes and reach a terminal policy repo rate closer to 6.25 percent or 6.50 percent by early 2023.

With challenging global backdrop as many central banks tighten the monetary policies to tame inflationary pressures, huge fiscal supply and RBI’s expected rate hikes, we expect interest rates to remain volatile with an upward bias.

Nonetheless, risk-reward is looking favourable for the investors as absolute yields have risen considerably over the past 6 months and now give a reasonable safety cushion to absorb mark to market volatility. For instance, a 3 – 4 year G-Sec at 7.30 percent - 7.40 percent levels is up from the lows of 4.75 percent in December 2020 and is now similar to the levels last seen almost 4 years back.

Also read - RBI rate-setting panel plans unscheduled meet on November 3

Against the backdrop of still many uncertainties, we prefer using the conventional wisdom to contain interest rate risk with a moderate overall duration of debt investment portfolio. A much flatter yield curve gives an opportunity to investors to cut down on duration risk and still continue to maintain high accrual.

The 2 to 4 year segment of the yield remains well placed from carry perspective for medium to long investors, as it has already priced in more aggressive rate hikes and also lesser impacted by the rate volatility.

Credit environment remains healthy, however, current narrow spreads of AA / AA+ over AAA bonds do not provide favourable risk adjusted reward opportunities and we expect illiquidity premium to increase sharply over a period of time thereby posing mark to market challenges for this segment.

India’s September services PMI expansion slowest since March

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India's services PMI for September has come in above 50 for the 14th month in a rowIndia's services sector output growth at six-month low in March: PMI |  Economy News | Zee News

India's services sector expanded at the weakest pace since March, survey data released October 6 showed.

The sector expanded for a 14th month in a row in September, with the S&P Global India Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) coming in at 54.3 last month.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion in activity while a sub-50 print signals contraction.

The services PMI was 57.2 in August.

"The Indian service sector has overcome many adversities in recent months, with the latest PMI data continuing to show a strong performance despite some loss of growth momentum in September.," noted Pollyanna De Lima, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

India's key inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), returned to 7 percent in August from July’s five-month low of 6.71 percent. The Reserve Bank of India is now just one month away from failure, with CPI inflation having been outside the central bank's 2-6 percent tolerance range for all of 2022.

The RBI is deemed to have failed if CPI inflation is outside the 2-6 percent range for three consecutive quarters. It averaged 6.3 percent in January-March, 7.3 percent in April-June, and will exceed 6 percent again in July-September.

The central bank has raised interest rates sharply since early May in a bid to curb inflation. It is expected to tighten policy again when its rate-setting panel meets in December.

Share Market Closing Note Indian Stock Market Trading View For 30 Septmber 2022

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Indian benchmark indices ended sharply higher on September 30 with Nifty closing above 17,000 after Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced repo rate hike by 50 bps.Blog for Stock tips, Equity tips, Commodity tips, Forex tips:  Sharetipsinfo.com | Want to beat the stock market volatility? Just keep on  reading this exclusive blog by Sharetipsinfo which will cover topics

At Close, the Sensex was up 1,016.96 points or 1.80% at 57,426.92, and the Nifty was up 276.20 points or 1.64% at 17,094.30. About 2283 shares have advanced, 1058 shares declined, and 95 shares are unchanged.

Hindalco Industries, Bharti Airtel, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance and Kotak Mahindra Bank were among the top gainers on the Nifty. However, losers included Shree Cements, Asian Paints, Britannia Industries, Coal India and Dr Reddys Laboratories.

All the sectoral indices ended in the green with auto, power, capital goods, bank, realty and metal up 1-2 percent.

BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices added 1 percent each.

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Topic :- Time:3.00 PM

Nifty spot if holds above 17080 level on closing basis then expect some upmove in market in coming sessions and close below above mentioned level will result in some sluggish movement. Avoid open positions for Monday.


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Topic :- Time:2.50 PM

UK Forex reserve is at all time low. Its just $500 Billion which is way lower than India. They might enter into recession followed by depression during winter time as Industries will suffer due to leakage in Gas pipeline from Russia which will be closed again. With upcoming winters survival without Russian gas will be difficult.

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Topic :- Time:2.30 PM

GOLD Trading View:

GOLD is trading at 50336.If it manages to trade and sustain above 50380 level then some further upmove can be seen and if it breaks and trade below 50290 level then some decline can follow.

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Topic :- Time:2.00 PM

Nifty is recovering smartly. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17160 level then expect some further upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 17120 level then some decline can be seen.

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Topic :- Time:1.30 PM

COPPER Trading View:

COPPER is trading at 654.If it manages to trade and sustain above 655.20 level then expect some upmove in it and if it breaks and trade below 653.20 level then some decline can follow in the market.

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Topic :- Time:1.10 PM

Just In:

Nestle India finance chief David Steven McDaniel to step down from March.

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Topic :- Time:1.00 PM

Nifty spot is trading at 17088. If it manages to trade and sustain above 17120 level then some upmove can follow in the market and if it breaks and trade below 17060 level then some decline can be seen.

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Topic :- Time:12.00 PM

Nifty is trading in green zone and is going strong now. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17020 level then expect some further upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 16960 level then some decline can follow in the Nifty.

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Topic :- Time:11.30 AM

News Wrap Up:

1. Sensex up 450pts, Nifty above 16,900 after RBIs 50 bps rate hike

2. RBI policy: Repo rate hiked by 50 bps to 5.9%; FY23 GDP forecast cut to 7%

3.  Govt must curb non-essential imports to stem rupee fall: CEO poll

4. Discussions on with Indus Towers for softer payment terms, says Vi

5. India is the only growth market for autos globally: S&P Global Mobility

6. India falls short on FTSE Russell EM government bond index inclusion

7. LNG markets may tighten further in 2023 as demand likely to rise: IEA Chief

8. Sebi permits FPIs to participate in exchange-traded commodity derivatives

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Topic :- Nifty Opening Note

Indian Stock Market Trading View For 30 Septmber 2022:

Expect market to remain volatile throughout the day. Global cues to dictate trend.

Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 16880 level then expect some further upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 16780 level then some decline can be seen in the Nifty. Please note this is just opening view and should not be considered as the view for the whole day.


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Repo rate expected at 6.5% by FY23-end: Unmesh Kulkarni of Julius Baer

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Unmesh Kulkarni of Julius Baer India expects the RBI to continue on the path of rate hikes for some more time (December and February policies).

Repo rate expected at 6.5% by FY23-end: Unmesh Kulkarni of Julius Baer -  Finnoexpert

Unmesh Kulkarni – Managing Director and Senior Advisor at Julius Baer India

The monetary policy was on expected lines, and the fixed income markets were pretty much anticipating the 50 basis point hike in policy rates, especially after the 75 bp hike by the US Fed along with their hawkish messaging.

Overall, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is concerned about the emerging shocks on the global front – Covid shocks followed by Ukraine shocks and, now, the rate hike aggression shocks by global central banks – as these shocks tend to have spillover effect on other economies.

On the other hand, the RBI Governor exuded a lot of confidence around the state of the Indian economy – resilience of domestic demand, encouraging signs around credit growth, capacity utilisation, the government's thrust on capital expenditure, and the strength of our forex reserves along with better performance of rupee vis-à-vis other currencies.

On the liquidity front, given the advanced stage of tightening that we are already in, one would have expected an official change in the policy stance to include the word “tightening”; however, the MPC has chosen to stay with the stance “withdrawal of accommodation”. RBI has been successful in bringing down the excess system liquidity through its VRRR (variable rate reverse repo) auctions. The money markets have reacted sharply to the tightening liquidity, with the call rates hovering around 5.75 percent – 5.85 percent in the past one week, and closer to the enhanced repo rate of 5.90 percent.

Also read - As RBI raises repo rate, here are 10 rate-sensitive stocks to bet on

Inflation remains on the higher side and above the RBI’s comfort zone. The RBI has retained its overall projections for inflation (as per the previous policy) and expects CPI to moderate sequentially over the next few quarters, from the current expected 7.1 percent in the second quarter to five percent in FY24. Despite easing of crude oil prices and food inflation, RBI perceives uncertainty on the overall inflation trajectory on supply concerns as well as the strength of the US dollar (leading to imported inflation).

Given the lower-than-expected GDP growth in the first quarter (13.5 percent versus projected 16.2 percent), the MPC has lowered its growth outlook for FY23 from 7.2 percent to seven percent, but raised the growth outlook for the coming quarters, as well as for the first quarter of FY24 (7.2 percent versus earlier projection of 6.7 percent). This projection seems optimistic and will likely be tested over time, as the world is staring at a recession, and not a phase of accelerated growth, as a fallout of the continuous and massive rate hikes by global central banks.

Also read - RBI Monetary Policy Live Updates: MPC to discuss RBI's reply to government on failing to meet inflation target

Overall, the policy managed to perform a balancing act, between inflation and global concerns on the one hand, and providing optimism around the domestic growth/demand situation on the other. We do expect the RBI to continue on the path of rate hikes for some more time (December and February policies).

Although the Governor mentioned that the MPC would avoid providing guidance around a terminal policy rate, it would be reasonable to assume a repo rate of 6.5 percent at the end of FY23, especially against the backdrop of an aggressive Fed, dollar strengthening and rising global bond yields.

In the near term, as fixed income markets had already priced in this 50 bp rate hike, there is a possibility of some pullback in yields; however, the yield curve will continue to be under upward pressure until the markets start sensing that we are close to the end of the tightening.

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