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Events to watch this week

• Potential health care loss could hinder Trump agenda
• United Kingdom to trigger Article 50 on March 29
• Banks soak up last of ECB’s cheap loans
• Eurozone showing signs of accelerating growth
• BOJ chief says stimulus here to stay

The Week ahead:

• The United Kingdom and Europe set clocks ahead one hour for daylight savings time on Sunday, 26 March,
• The UK is expected to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty on Wednesday, 29 March
• The United States reports revised Q4 gross domestic product figures on Thursday, 30 March
• Japan reports inflation data and unemployment figures on Friday, 31 March
• China releases purchasing managers’ indices on Friday, 31 March
• The UK releases revised Q4 GDP figures on Friday, 31 March
• The eurozone reports consumer inflation data on Friday, 31 March

For the week,Global equities slipped this week amid concerns that the Trump administration’s promised pro-growth policy agenda may become bogged down as GOP lawmakers struggle to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare. US 10-year Treasury note yields fell 10 basis points from a week ago to 2.41%. West Texas Intermediate crude slumped to $47.80 from $49.25 last Friday and global Brent fell to $50.60 from $52.00 as US production continued to build. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), rose to 12.4 from 11.2..

NIFTY- 9,108.00
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,149 barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,805 gram
Rs/$-Rs 65.42

MARKET ROUND UP

Key benchmark indices edged lower as investors pocketed some cash on profit booking after the recent surge helped Nifty hit record closing high on the last session of previous week. Key indices fell in three out of five sessions of the week. Indices staged some recovery towards the closing sessions of the week after witnessing drubbing during the initial few sessions.

The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, fell 227.59 points or 0.76% at 29,421.40. The Nifty 50 index shed 52.05 points or 0.56% at 9,108.

The BSE Mid-Cap index shed 0.31%. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.46%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

Macro Economic Front:

On the Economic Front,India's current account deficit (CAD) at $7.9 billion (1.4% of GDP) in Q3 of FY 2017, was higher than $7.1 billion (1.4% of GDP) in Q3 of FY 2016 and $3.4 billion (0.6% of GDP) in the preceding quarter. The data was released by government after market hours on 23 March 2017.

Despite a slightly lower trade deficit on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, the CAD widened primarily on account of a decline in net invisible receipts. Net services receipts moderated on a y-o-y basis, primarily owing to the fall in earnings from software, financial services and charges for intellectual property rights.

Major Action &Announcement:

Axis Bank dropped 5.38%. The bank in a clarification issued before market hours on Wednesday, 22 March 2017, stated that the information on the bank's MD & CEO Shikha Sharma's resignation is false, speculative and is being circulated with the malafide intention of misleading the investors and the general public.

Cipla declined 0.63%. In its clarification on media reports titled USFDA issued import alert on Cipla'sTadalafil drug made at Bhagwanpur unit, Cipla during market hours on Friday, 24 March 2017 said that the company neither directly or indirectly imports for sale or sell Tadalafil tables in US market nor has not authorised any third party for it. Cipla is not associated with referenced import alert of Tadalafil product or its source at Bhagwanpur site at Uttaranchal for the US market, the company said. Accordingly, this event has no impact on Cipla, it added.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries shed 0.48%.AlmirallS.L, and the company announced the validation of the regulatory filing of tildrakizumab with the European Medicines Agency (EMA) by Almirall. Tildrakizumab is an investigational IL-23p19 inhibitor being evaluated for the treatment of moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis. The announcement was made during market hours on Friday, 24 March 2017.

BhartiAirtel declined 1.85%. The company announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement with Tikona Digital Networks (Tikona) to acquire Tikona's 4G business including broadband wireless access (BWA) spectrum and 350 sites, in five telecom circles for about Rs 1600 crore. The announcement was made after market hours on Thursday, 23 March 2017.

NTPC rose 2.53%. The company said that the second unit of 800 megawatts (MW) of Kudgi Super Thermal Power Station of 2400 MW has been commissioned. With this, the commissioned capacity of Kudgi Super Thermal Power Station, NTPC and NTPC group has become 1600 MW, 42977 MW and 49943 MW respectively. The announcement was made during market hours on Thursday, 23 March 2017.

FMCG major, Hindustan Unilever (HUL) fell 0.25%. HUL announced that it has commenced the commercial production in its new manufacturing unit at Assam on 15 March 2017. The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 21 March 2017. The company had earlier informed about setting up new manufacturing unit in Assam to augment the production capacity of personal care products of the company.

Global Front:

In Overseas Markets,US Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected without accelerating its timeline for future tightening. The Fed raised its benchmark lending rate a quarter point and continued to project two more increases this year. Fed said that it would raise the benchmark federal-funds rate to a range between 0.75% and 1%.

Global Economic News:

May sets date for beginning Brexit process
British prime minister Theresa May this week set 29 March as the day that the United Kingdom will notify the European Union of its intent to leave the EU, beginning the two-year period set out in Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty for negotiating the terms under which the UK will exit. The negotiations are expected to be thorny because the EU is loath to give the UK a “good” deal for fear of prompting additional EU members to quit.

European banks take up more cheap loans than expected
Eurozone banks took up more super-cheap loans than expected from the European Central Bank’s Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operation (TLTRO) this week. A total of €223.5 billion of the zero percent four-year loans were placed, far in excess of the €125 billion economists had expected. In a sign of policy normalization, the ECB announced last month that this would be its last TLTRO operation.

European economy extends uptick
Flash purchasing managers’ indices jumped to their highest level in nearly six years today as the eurozone composite PMI rose to a robust 56.7. Economists extrapolate from that data that gross domestic product growth is growing at a rate in excess of an annualized 2%. The euro strengthened on the data, as well as on hopes that a centrist candidate will derail populist Marine Le Pen in the upcoming French presidential elections.

BOJ to stick to stimulus
Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda said today that there is no reason to withdraw monetary stimulus now, or to raise the bank's bond yield target, since inflation remains well below the BOJ’s 2% goal. Recent upticks in Japanese growth and inflation have raised questions as to whether the central bank could alter its super-easy monetary policy. For now, those questions can be been laid to rest.

Brazil buffeted by meat scandal
Exports of Brazilian meat have plummeted in the wake of a food safety scandal. The meat products are now banned in China, Japan, Mexico and the European Union, while the United States has redoubled food safety inspections, according to the US Department of Agriculture. In an operation dubbed “Weak Flesh,” dozens of Brazilian food inspectors have been arrested for ignoring expired or adulterated processed foods in recent weeks.

Tighter Chinese liquidity eyed
Tightening liquidity conditions in China’s banking system are raising concerns that economic growth could be negatively impacted as the year progresses. Recently, China has been taking steps to rein in its shadow banking system amid fears that the property market could overheat. Chinese iron ore futures tumbled 19%, the largest weekly decline on record, as the People’s Bank of China introduced fresh borrowing curbs on home lending.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Markets fear health care failure could crimp Trump’s clout
After delaying a scheduled vote on the American Health Care Act on Thursday, lawmakers have set a vote for late Friday despite apparently still not having enough votes to assure passage. If passed, the bill would be sent on to the Senate for its consideration. Observers grew concerned this week that if the Trump administration fails to advance one of its signature agenda items straight out of the gate that it may also struggle to pass market-friendly items like tax reform and infrastructure investment later in the Congressional session. A protracted fight on health care, at a minimum, would push those pieces back on the legislative calendar, delaying their economic impact. The failure to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act would likely diminish the new administration’s political capital.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:

Monday (27 Mar)
Week Bill Announcement

Tuesday (28 Mar)
Consumer Confidence

Wednesday (29 Mar)
Pending Home Sales

Thursday (30 Mar)
Natural Gas Report

Friday (31 Mar)
Consumer Sentiment

Fundamental Pick of the week:

Buy Glenmark Ltd For Target Rs.970.00

Glenmark Pharma reversed after taking support of its long-term moving average 200-day SMA and also its intermediate rising trend line.

* Positive cross-over in key technical indicators from their oversold zone is signaling that stock is on verge of turnaround and soon it will resume the uptrend.

* On the higher side, the stock will face hurdles around its multiple highs, which are placed in the range of Rs950-970.

* In case of major decline, recent swing low (i.e. Rs872) will work as key reversal point for the stock.

Indian Market Outlook:

Market on March 17, 2017

The Nifty traded with a bullish bias and scaled above the 9100 mark on a closing basis. A bigger picture shows that the Nifty held on to the trend line drawn from the previous swing lows. On the hourly chart, it has formed an impulse on the upside, which suggests that the larger upside potential is still intact. The range of 8980- 9000, which had earlier acted as a resistance zone, is now providing support to the Index. On the weekly chart, the Nifty has posted a negative close. Nevertheless, it can be taken as a part of a higher degree fifth wave on the upside. The short-term and medium-term targets on the upside are 9230 and 9500, respectively. 

TECHNICAL VIEW:

Other technical observations

Last Week we gave Chopad Levels  of 9150, Nifty gave Short entry on Monday which  did 2 target on Downside by Wednesday.Nifty for a single session was not able to close below the Chopad level of 9150 suggesting Bulls were under pressure from start of the week.  LetsAnalyze how to trade Nifty as we are approaching March Expiry and Financial Year closing.

Conclusion:

Nifty settled marginally lower in the passing week, tracking mixed cues. Majority of the sectoral pivots traded inline with the benchmark and failed to post any meaningful gain.

In the coming week, we expect Nifty to consolidate further within 9000-9300 band; however, volatility will inch higher on stock specific front due to expiry of March month derivatives contracts.

Considering all, traders should focus more on the trade management part and avoid over leveraging. Investors, on the other hand, should use this phase to gradually add quality stocks on every dips.

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Indian equity markets commenced the week on a sluggish note as the benchmarks showcased an unenthusiastic performance on Monday and settled with moderate cuts of over quarter percent. Marketmen turned cautious over the Centre's future reform policies in view of appointment of Yogi Adityanath as the Chief Minister of the country's most populous state. The MP from Gorakhpur, who lacks administrative experience, was unanimously elected the BJP legislature party leader at a meeting of the newly elected MLAs, in a move that took many by surprise. Sentiments remained subdued with a report that the all India Consumer Sentiments Index, measured by the BSE and CMIE, has hit a one-year low at 92.25 compared to 99.65 a year ago. This comes even as the wholesale price index based inflation jumped up to a 39-month high of 6.55%. However, losses remained capped with the report that the Cabinet approved four bills to implement a planned Goods and Services Tax (GST) bills, paving the way for Prime Minister NarendraModi to implement the landmark tax reform from July. The four bills are likely to be taken up by Parliament this week and a separate state GST bill in state assemblies later. Some support also came with the report that the implementation of GST is likely to be fiscally neutral and its impact on inflation is expected to be less than 20 basis points. Further, India has begun the process of dismantling some of the last remaining controls in the foreign direct investment (FDI) framework. The department of economic affairs (DEA) has floated a draft Cabinet note for inter-ministerial consultation to scrap the Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB), in line with a plan announced by finance minister ArunJaitley in his February 1 budget.

The benchmark got off to a sedate opening tracking the dismal leads prevailing in Asian markets following Wall Street's declines and the G20's decision to drop a pledge to avoid trade protectionism. Thereafter, the indices traded in tight range below neutral line with moderate losses for most part of the session. Finally, the NSE Nifty, took a cut of over quarter percent to settle below the crucial 9,150 support level, while BSE Sensex slipped by over hundred points and closed above the psychological 29,500 mark.

Asian markets made a mixed closing on Monday

Asian equity markets ended mixed on Monday following Wall Street's decline and the G20's decision to drop a pledge to avoid trade protectionism, while the Federal Reserve's less hawkish-thanexpected comments continued to weigh on the dollar. Chinese stocks bucked the weak trend to close higher, as gains among energy stocks offset declines in the realty sector. China's property market picked pace in February despite the government announcing a raft of measures to temper speculative demand, data showed on Saturday. Japanese markets were closed for the Vernal Equinox holiday.

US markets closed mostly lower on Monday

The US markets closed mostly lower on Monday, as investors were reluctant to make big bets without major economic or corporate news. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said that the Federal Reserve is on track to raise interest rates twice more this year after a policy tightening last week and it could be more or less aggressive depending on inflation and fiscal policies from the Trump administration. The public comments from Evans were among the first since the US central bank lifted its policy rate a notch last week, as expected. It also forecast roughly two more moves in 2017 in a nod to low unemployment and some inflation pressures. Evans, who is a voter on the Fed’s policy-setting committee this year and supported last week’s move, also echoed a comment from Fed Chair Janet Yellen that suggested the central bank could try to push inflation, now at 1.7 percent, above a 2-percent target. Evans added that while that level of growth could be reached in any given year, he said it was hard to imagine given the economy is already doing well, the labor market is very strong, and sectors like automobile sales are at all-time highs. There is room to get inflation up to 2 percent and in fact going beyond 2 percent a little bit to make sure we get there, and that it’s a symmetric inflation objective.

On the economy front, the Chicago Fed national activity index rose more-than-expected last month. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago said that Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 0.34, from -0.02 in the preceding month whose figure was revised up from -0.05.

MARKET SYNOPSIS

* Yesterday, NSE-NIFTY witnessed sharp decline in the initial trade and later spent entire session oscillating in narrow range. Finally after registering high of 9,168 and low of 9,116 levels closed the day at 9,127 mark with loss of 33 points.

* NSE Cash segment has reported turnover of Rs22,650crore as compared to Rs31,890 crore earlier.Overall market breadth turned negative, where 787 stocks advanced against 860 declined stocks.

* Mixed trend was observed across all the sectoral indices during the day, where none of the sectoral indices reported gain of more than 0.5%. However, IT index emerged as a top loser with the decrease of 1.1%. 

NSE-NIFTY OUTLOOK

NSE-NIFTY slipped to three day low as index failed to continue prior daily up-trend. As mentioned earlier, our technical view will remain positive on NIFTY, but some decline or sideways movement cannot be ruled out before index resumes the uptrend and records fresh high, as (i) negative market breadth, (ii) overbought indicators and (iii) lack of positive trigger in market are signaling the same. On the lower side, NIFTY will find immediate support around break-out line (i.e. placed around 9,120 level) and in case of further fall, psychological mark-9,000 will continue to work as key support level. On the higher side, index major resistance observed around 9,200 and then at 9,500 levels.

As for the day, support is placed at around 9,050 and then at 9,000 levels, while resistance is observed at 9,170 and then around at 9,220 levels.

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Events to watch this week

• Federal funds rate target raised to 0.75%–1.00%

• BOJ and BOE leave rates unchanged

• China snugs monetary policy

• UK parliament passes Brexit bill

• Dutch populists fare worse than expected

The Week ahead:

• The United Kingdom reports inflation data on Tuesday, 21 March

• The Bank of Japan releases the minutes of its recent monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, 21 March

• The US reports existing home sales data on Wednesday, 22 March

• Fed chair Janet Yellen speaks on Thursday, 23 March

• Global flash purchasing managers' indices are released on Friday, 24 March

For the week,Global equities rose this week after the US Federal Reserve indicated it will raise rates gradually and the populist Freedom Party fared worse than expected in Dutch elections. The US 10-year note yields fell to 2.51% from 2.58% a week ago despite this week’s hike in interest rates from the Fed. West Texas Intermediate crude prices were little changed, holding below $50 per barrel on continued high inventories. Global Brent was steady at $52. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), stayed about the same, at $11.20.

NIFTY- 9,160.05
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,197barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,519 gram
Rs/$-Rs 65.48

MARKET ROUND UP 
Domestic stock markets registered strong gains in the truncated week ended Friday, 17 March 2017, on the back of thumping victory for the BharatiyaJanata Party (BJP) in the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, surged 702.76 points or 2.42% to settle at 29,648.99. The Nifty 50 index jumped 225.50 points or 2.52% to settle at 9,160.05. The market was closed on Monday, 13 March 2017 for holi.

The Sensex settled well above the psychological 29,000 level while the Nifty breached the crucial 9,000 mark and settled at a record closing.The BSE Mid-Cap index advanced 3.94%. The BSE Small-Cap index gained 3%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

The ruling party at the centre, the BJP, had put up a decent show in remaining three states polls viz. Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa while it succumbed to Congress party in Punjab.
The election results could provide a much needed boost to BJP to accelerate the pace of reforms, including the rollout of the crucial Goods and Services Tax (GST), slated to be implemented from 1 July 2017.

Key benchmark indices closed with small gains on the final trading session of the week on Friday, 17 March 2017. The Sensex rose 63.14 points or 0.21% to settle at 29,648.99, its highest closing level since 29 January 2015. 

Macro Economic Front: 
On the Economic Front,the all-India general CPI inflation increased to 3.65% in February 2017, compared with 3.17% in January 2017. The data was announced after market hours on Tuesday, 14 March 2017.
Another data showed that India's exports rose 17.48% at $24.49 billion in February 2017 over February 2016. Imports rose 21.76% to $33.38 billion in February 2017 over February 2016. The data was announced after market hours on Wednesday, 15 March 2017.

Major Action &Announcement:
State Bank of India (SBI) rose 0.75%. The bank said that its Central Board at a meeting held on 15 March 2017 accorded its approval for raising of equity capital uptoRs 15000 crore during the year ending 31 March 2017 (FY 2017) through various modes as may be decided at the opportune time. The announcement was made after market hours on Wednesday, 15 March 2017.

Axis Bank advanced 0.28%. The bank said that it has reviewed and decided to keep the marginal cost based lending rates (MCLRs) of the bank unchanged across the tenors, effective from 18 March 2017. The one yea MCLR stands unchanged at 8.25%. The announcement was made after market hours on Thursday, 16 March 2017. 

TCS declined 0.59%. The company announced that its customer, Bank Yahav, is successfully operational with the TCS BaNCS Universal Banking platform, in a first of its kind for the Israeli market. The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 14 March 2017. 

Wipro rose 3.5%. The company announced the launch of the Wipro HOLMES Cloud BOT - a continuously learning digital consultant, that leverages Wipro's BoundaryLess Data Center solution. The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 14 March 2017.

L&T advanced 3.94%. The company said that L&T Realty has executed share purchase deal for selling its entire stake of 51% in L&T South City Projects to Pragnya Group for a consideration of Rs 190 crore. The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 14 March 2017.L&T announced during market hours on Thursday, 16 March 2017 that L&T Electrical & Automation FZE won a major order worth Rs 500 crore from Qatar Rail Company (QRAIL) for Phase I of Doha Metro.

Power Grid Corporation of India (PGCIL) was up 0.49%. The company said that its board of directors accorded approval for various investment proposals aggregating to Rs 1197.10 crore. The announcement was made on Saturday, 11 March 2017. 

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (Sun Pharma) rose 3.39%. The company said that US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) will lift the import alert imposed on the company's Mohali facility. The announcement was made during trading hours on Tuesday, 14 March 2017. The Mohali facility was inherited by Sun Pharma as part of its acquisition of Ranbaxy Laboratories in 2015. 

Global Front: 
In Overseas Markets,US Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected without accelerating its timeline for future tightening. The Fed raised its benchmark lending rate a quarter point and continued to project two more increases this year. Fed said that it would raise the benchmark federal-funds rate to a range between 0.75% and 1%.
The People's Bank of China raised the interest rates it charges commercial banks in the money market on the seven-day, 14-day and 28-day loans--also known as reverse repurchase agreements or repos--each by 0.1 percentage point. 

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) left policy unchanged on Thursday, 16 March 2017, sticking with its expansionary measures even though other major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are shifting away from years of unusually aggressive stimulus. 

Global Economic News:

Fed hikes rates, expects continued gradual rise 
The US Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee pushed policy rates up a further quarter of a percent at its 15 March meeting and indicated that it expects to hike rates twice more this year. Chair Janet Yellen said that the Fed’s economic forecasts have not changed since the last rate hike in December and that the pace of future rate hikes would be gradual. Yellen also said the Fed has confidence that the economic recovery is robust and is resistant to shocks. Despite the Fed hiking rates at two of its last three meetings, financial conditions are easier today than they were on the day of the Fed’s December hike: Equity prices are higher, the 10-year US Treasury note yield is lower, the dollar is weaker and corporate bond spreads are narrower.

BOJ and BOE stand pat; China raises short-term rates
While the Bank of Japan is not in a position to hike rates anytime soon, the Bank of England might be closer to a hike than markets expected. One member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Kristin Forbes, voted to hike rates by 0.25% on Thursday, and several other members indicated they would consider voting to hike rates if activity or inflation picks up further. With Brexit looming, the BOE finds itself in a policy bind given the potential for economic and market volatility because the process is unfolding at a time when inflation pressures appear to be rebounding. In the wake of the Fed’s hike, the People’s Bank of China raised its reverse repo rate 10 basis points in an effort to keep the USD/CNY exchange rate stable and limit capital outflows. Thursday’s hike was the second this year. However, China’s official monetary policy benchmark deposit rate remains unchanged. 

UK parliament passes Brexit bill
After several weeks of legislative wrangling, the UK parliament this week passed the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill and the queen has given Royal Assent, clearing the way for the government to begin negotiations to leave the EU. The two-year process is expected to be triggered by the end of this month.
G20 finance ministers meet
US treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin is set to meet with his G20 counterparts for the first time this weekend in Germany. Trade and currency issues will no doubt be at the top of the agenda. Mnuchin met with German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble on Thursday, with Mnuchin vowing to avoid trade wars while seeking to secure reciprocal trading arrangements.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Dutch populist party underperforms expectations
Support for Geert Wilder’s Freedom Party faded in the final days of the Dutch general election campaign with his party finishing a distant second to the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Rutte. Wilders had led in the polls for several months, but his party secured just 20 seats in the Dutch parliament versus 33 for Rutte’s party. Rutte will now need to forge a coalition with several other parties, a process which is expected to be lengthy, as Rutte has ruled out including the Freedom Party in any coalition. In addition to eyeing the performance of populist factions, observers monitoring the electoral performance of populist factions report increasing political fragmentation in Europe. For example, the Netherlands now has 13 parties claiming seats in parliament, with the leading party garnering only 21% of the vote.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:
Monday (20 Mar)
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 
Tuesday (21 Mar)
Week Bill Auction 
Wednesday (22 Mar)
Existing Home Sales
Thursday (23 Mar)
New Home Sales & Jobless Claims 
Friday (24 Mar)
PMI Composite Flash

Fundamental Pick of the week:
Buy Lupin Ltd For Target Rs.1,520.00
The stock has made a strong bottom in the last few weeks at sub 1400 with strong volumes and positive price action in the last few days.

The key technical indicators and RSI has also reversed turning upwards and as the stock is in poised for a breakout from current levels.The stock has closed near its short term averages confirming the uptrend and the recent swing high of 1550 could be tested in the next few weeks.
Thus, for trade, long position can be initiated for target of Rs 1520 with a stop loss of Rs 1415.

Indian Market Outlook:
Market on March 17, 2017 
The Nifty opened gap-up above 9200 but could not build upon the early gains. The Index declined throughout the day and closed just above the daily upper Bollinger Band. Nevertheless, this is a minor correction and the larger trend still remains positive. In terms of the wave structure, the rally is getting sub-divided into lower degree waves and has the potential to sustain. The weekly close confirms the bullish inside bar breakout on the weekly chart, which indicates that the mediumterm trend is in favor of the bulls. Short-term and medium-term targets on the upside are 9230 and 9500, respectively. On the flip side, 9060-9000 will act as a key support area from a short-term perspective.

TECHNICAL VIEW:

Other technical observations 
On the daily chart, the Nifty is trading above the 20- day moving average (DMA) and the 40-DEMA, ie 8947 and 8806 respectively. The momentum indicator is in a bullish mode on the daily chart.
On the hourly chart, the Nifty is trading above the 20- hour moving average (HMA) and the 40-HEMA, ie 9134 and 9081 respectively. The hourly momentum indicator is in a bearish mode. 

Bank Nifty View
Long above 21300 for a move towards 21450/21500.Bearish below 21000 for a move towards 20800/20600. High madewas 21336 and low made was 21127 so bulls broke 21300 with gap up but bears became active and pushed the bank nifty below 21300, but bulls also did not let 21000 break so the range trade continues. Weekly close above 21000 is a very bullish sign as we have the Highest Weekly close. Long above 21300 for a move towards 21450/21500.Bearish below 21000 for a move towards 20800/20600. 

Conclusion:

The Indian equity markets zoomed after BJP’s overwhelming victory in Uttar Pradesh. The week that went by was a historic one for Nifty and Sensex in terms of new achievements. Nifty breached its all time high and crossed 9200, however, the 9200 mark acted as resistance for the benchmark index. Sensex too soared 616 points in a day on Thursday and closed at the peak level at 29,586. Foreign investors have renewed confidence after the UP elections results boosted hope of further reforms. On the other hand, as widely expected, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the second time in 3-months. Interestingly, Nifty sectoral indices set new records as the market negated the US Fed rate hike and continued with the upward momentum.

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Markets to make a positive start reacting to assembly results and IIP data

The Indian markets before going for a long weekend made a flat closing with a positive bias. Today, the start is likely to be in green and the traders will be rejoicing the assembly election outcome, which was mostly on the expected lines. A strong election win in the largest state of Uttar Pradesh has raised the probability of the BJP winning the 2019 general elections as well, putting sense of stability among investors. Traders are also likely to get support from the economy front, where the industrial production bounced back into expansion in January, kicking off the financial year’s last quarter on a positive note. The index of industrial production (IIP) rose 2.7% in January from a year ago, the second fastest monthly growth this financial year. However, there will be some cautiousness too, with the RBI warning of a possible spike in inflation and stressing the need to make digital payments “safe and secure”, even as it felt that the adverse and transient impact on the economy has “by and large” dissipated already. Traders will be eyeing the inflation data to be released later in the day for further cues. The banking stocks will keep buzzing, as the Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has discussed options on resolution of bad loans with RBI Governor Urjit Patel and other top officials in finance ministry but creation of a 'bad bank' to hold such loans seemed not on top of alternatives.

Indian benchmarks end marginally higher ahead of assembly elections results

Indian benchmark indices give up most of their early gains to close marginally higher on Friday, amid profit taking in selective frontline stocks. Today’s session largely remained characterized by consolidation as the aimless indices moved only sideways in a tight band ahead of Assembly poll results of five states on Saturday. Sentiments got some support after various exit polls suggested the Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may comfortably cross the majority mark of 202 in the 403-seat UP Assembly, or come close to it. As for other states, most exit polls said the BJP was likely to retain power in Goa and wrest power from the Congress in Uttarakhand. Further, investors got some comfort with the report that the government's revenue collection from indirect tax during April-February grew by an impressive 22.2%, while that of direct tax rose by 10.7%. Total direct and indirect tax collections at February end stood at Rs 13.89 lakh crore, 81.5% of the target of Rs 16.99 lakh crore, as per the revised estimate for 2016-17. 

However, gains remained capped with CRISIL’s report that a revival in private sector investment cycle is likely to be deferred to fiscal 2019 as there is ample headroom in capacity utilization, stretched balance sheets and just a moderate pick-up in demand. In the next fiscal year ending March 2018, CRISIL predicts only a mild recovery due to an absence of fiscal and monetary stimuli and unsupportive global environment. Meanwhile, Telecom stocks gained traction on the report that the government is set to go for 5G spectrum auction this year -making an early move to initiate rollout of latest communications technologies. The government will also go for a fresh auction in 700 MHz band, which drew a blank last year as companies complained of high reserve price. Further, some auto stocks surged after the Vehicle sales across categories registered a marginal increase at 17,19,699 units in February 2017 from 17,03,736 in the same month last year. Domestic passenger vehicle sales rose by 9.01% y-o-y to 255,359 units in February, while Sales of commercial vehicles moved up 7.34% to 66,939 units in February. On the other hand, shares of gold loan companies like Manappuram Finance edged lower after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said NBFCs cannot lend more than Rs 20,000 in cash against gold. Earlier, NBFCs were allowed to disburse high value loans of Rs 1 lakh and above against gold only through cheque.

Asian markets made a mixed closing on Thursday

The US markets closed mostly higher on Monday, as investors refrained from making sizable bets ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting that is widely expected to deliver an interest-rate increase. With no economic data, investors were instead focusing on the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting that kicks off Tuesday. Investors will be eager to glean signals about the timing and pace of future rate increases from the FOMC’s policy statement. The market is pricing in about three rate increases of a quarter of a percentage point each for 2017. The market sees an 88.6% probability that the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee will vote for an interest-rate Wednesday, according to data from the CME Group. Expectations for a rate increase were cemented after solid February nonfarm-payroll data on Friday. According to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released showed that a measure of US inflation expectations mostly flattened in February after having risen in the previous two months. The survey of consumer expectations, an increasingly influential gauge of prices for the US central bank, showed that year-ahead inflation expectations were flat at 3 percent last month. The three-year ahead reading edged up to 3 percent, from 2.9 percent in January.

The Nasdaq was up 14.05 points or 0.24 percent to 5,875.78, S&P 500 gained 0.87 points or 0.04 percent to 2,373.47, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 21.5 points or 0.10 percent to 20,881.48.

January IIP surges to 2.7% against -0.4% in December

In a positive surprise, industrial output rose to 2.7% in January as compared to -0.4% in December. The cumulative growth for the period April-January 2016-17 over the corresponding period of the previous year stood at 0.6 percent.

Govt releases the draft rules for security of prepaid payment instruments

In a bid to make electronic payments more secure, the government has released the draft rules for transactions made through prepaid payment instruments (PPIs) like mobile wallets, smart cards and paper vouchers. The draft IT (Security of Prepaid Payment Instruments) Rules 2017, formulated by the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) will ensure adequate integrity, security and confidentiality of electronic payments effected through PPIs. Till date, these instruments are not governed by norms or rules, as far as cyber security issues are concerned.

As per the draft rules, the PPIs need to ensure end-to-end encryption of the data exchanged. Besides, the e-PPI issuers should assist customers with regard to secure use of the prepaid payment instruments and should have a privacy policy posted on its website.

They will also have to appoint a chief grievance officer, whose contact details will have to be prominently displayed on the website and procedure by which customers or any other person who suffers as a result of violation of these rules can make complaints to the Grievance Officer.

Furthermore, the PPI issuer will also need to establish a mechanism for monitoring, handling and follow-up of any cyber incidents and breaches. The rules also specify that every wallet issuer should review its security measures at least once a year, and after any major security incident or breach, or before a major change to its infrastructure or procedures. The last date for submittingcomments on the draft is March 20.

Indian govt continue to engage with Trump administration on H1B visa issue

In order to ease the worries of Indian professionals over H1B visa, the government has said that the steps taken by the US were aimed at illegal immigration and added that they would continue to engage with both members of the US administration as well as members of the US Congress on their interests and concerns pertaining to not just H1B visa but other issues as well.

Talking on the discussions held between Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar with his interlocutors in the US last week, External Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Gopal Baglay has said that there was a strong recognition as well as respect for Indian skills and contribution of the Indian technological manpower to the US economy. He also said it has been India's view that the presence of skilled Indian professionals is positive for the US economy as well, particularly when the US seeks to build a stronger economy. He pointed out that there are other advantages from the presence of Indian professionals in the US like backward linkages.

Calling the H1B visas a trade and business issue, Baglay further said that their views have been clearly conveyed to the concerned US interlocutors. He also said that the government believes that the plans of the US Administration for the US economy present an opportunity for the two countries to further consolidate their strong economic partnership.