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Weekly Nifty Trading View for the Week March 20, 2017 – Mar 26, 2017

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Events to watch this week

  • Federal funds rate target raised to 0.75%–1.00%

  • BOJ and BOE leave rates unchanged

  • China snugs monetary policy

  • UK parliament passes Brexit bill

  • Dutch populists fare worse than expected

The Week ahead:

  • The United Kingdom reports inflation data on Tuesday, 21 March

  • The Bank of Japan releases the minutes of its recent monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, 21 March

  • The US reports existing home sales data on Wednesday, 22 March

  • Fed chair Janet Yellen speaks on Thursday, 23 March

  • Global flash purchasing managers' indices are released on Friday, 24 March

For the week,Global equities rose this week after the US Federal Reserve indicated it will raise rates gradually and the populist Freedom Party fared worse than expected in Dutch elections. The US 10-year note yields fell to 2.51% from 2.58% a week ago despite this week’s hike in interest rates from the Fed. West Texas Intermediate crude prices were little changed, holding below $50 per barrel on continued high inventories. Global Brent was steady at $52. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), stayed about the same, at $11.20.

NIFTY- 9,160.05
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,197barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,519 gram
Rs/$-Rs 65.48

MARKET ROUND UP
Domestic stock markets registered strong gains in the truncated week ended Friday, 17 March 2017, on the back of thumping victory for the BharatiyaJanata Party (BJP) in the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, surged 702.76 points or 2.42% to settle at 29,648.99. The Nifty 50 index jumped 225.50 points or 2.52% to settle at 9,160.05. The market was closed on Monday, 13 March 2017 for holi.

The Sensex settled well above the psychological 29,000 level while the Nifty breached the crucial 9,000 mark and settled at a record closing.The BSE Mid-Cap index advanced 3.94%. The BSE Small-Cap index gained 3%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

The ruling party at the centre, the BJP, had put up a decent show in remaining three states polls viz. Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa while it succumbed to Congress party in Punjab.
The election results could provide a much needed boost to BJP to accelerate the pace of reforms, including the rollout of the crucial Goods and Services Tax (GST), slated to be implemented from 1 July 2017.

Key benchmark indices closed with small gains on the final trading session of the week on Friday, 17 March 2017. The Sensex rose 63.14 points or 0.21% to settle at 29,648.99, its highest closing level since 29 January 2015.

Macro Economic Front:
On the Economic Front,the all-India general CPI inflation increased to 3.65% in February 2017, compared with 3.17% in January 2017. The data was announced after market hours on Tuesday, 14 March 2017.
Another data showed that India's exports rose 17.48% at $24.49 billion in February 2017 over February 2016. Imports rose 21.76% to $33.38 billion in February 2017 over February 2016. The data was announced after market hours on Wednesday, 15 March 2017.

Major Action &Announcement:
State Bank of India (SBI) rose 0.75%. The bank said that its Central Board at a meeting held on 15 March 2017 accorded its approval for raising of equity capital uptoRs 15000 crore during the year ending 31 March 2017 (FY 2017) through various modes as may be decided at the opportune time. The announcement was made after market hours on Wednesday, 15 March 2017.

Axis Bank advanced 0.28%. The bank said that it has reviewed and decided to keep the marginal cost based lending rates (MCLRs) of the bank unchanged across the tenors, effective from 18 March 2017. The one yea MCLR stands unchanged at 8.25%. The announcement was made after market hours on Thursday, 16 March 2017.

TCS declined 0.59%. The company announced that its customer, Bank Yahav, is successfully operational with the TCS BaNCS Universal Banking platform, in a first of its kind for the Israeli market. The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 14 March 2017.

Wipro rose 3.5%. The company announced the launch of the Wipro HOLMES Cloud BOT - a continuously learning digital consultant, that leverages Wipro's BoundaryLess Data Center solution. The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 14 March 2017.

L&T advanced 3.94%. The company said that L&T Realty has executed share purchase deal for selling its entire stake of 51% in L&T South City Projects to Pragnya Group for a consideration of Rs 190 crore. The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 14 March 2017.L&T announced during market hours on Thursday, 16 March 2017 that L&T Electrical & Automation FZE won a major order worth Rs 500 crore from Qatar Rail Company (QRAIL) for Phase I of Doha Metro.

Power Grid Corporation of India (PGCIL) was up 0.49%. The company said that its board of directors accorded approval for various investment proposals aggregating to Rs 1197.10 crore. The announcement was made on Saturday, 11 March 2017.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (Sun Pharma) rose 3.39%. The company said that US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) will lift the import alert imposed on the company's Mohali facility. The announcement was made during trading hours on Tuesday, 14 March 2017. The Mohali facility was inherited by Sun Pharma as part of its acquisition of Ranbaxy Laboratories in 2015.

Global Front:
In Overseas Markets,US Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected without accelerating its timeline for future tightening. The Fed raised its benchmark lending rate a quarter point and continued to project two more increases this year. Fed said that it would raise the benchmark federal-funds rate to a range between 0.75% and 1%.
The People's Bank of China raised the interest rates it charges commercial banks in the money market on the seven-day, 14-day and 28-day loans--also known as reverse repurchase agreements or repos--each by 0.1 percentage point.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) left policy unchanged on Thursday, 16 March 2017, sticking with its expansionary measures even though other major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are shifting away from years of unusually aggressive stimulus.

Global Economic News:

Fed hikes rates, expects continued gradual rise
The US Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee pushed policy rates up a further quarter of a percent at its 15 March meeting and indicated that it expects to hike rates twice more this year. Chair Janet Yellen said that the Fed’s economic forecasts have not changed since the last rate hike in December and that the pace of future rate hikes would be gradual. Yellen also said the Fed has confidence that the economic recovery is robust and is resistant to shocks. Despite the Fed hiking rates at two of its last three meetings, financial conditions are easier today than they were on the day of the Fed’s December hike: Equity prices are higher, the 10-year US Treasury note yield is lower, the dollar is weaker and corporate bond spreads are narrower.

BOJ and BOE stand pat; China raises short-term rates
While the Bank of Japan is not in a position to hike rates anytime soon, the Bank of England might be closer to a hike than markets expected. One member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Kristin Forbes, voted to hike rates by 0.25% on Thursday, and several other members indicated they would consider voting to hike rates if activity or inflation picks up further. With Brexit looming, the BOE finds itself in a policy bind given the potential for economic and market volatility because the process is unfolding at a time when inflation pressures appear to be rebounding. In the wake of the Fed’s hike, the People’s Bank of China raised its reverse repo rate 10 basis points in an effort to keep the USD/CNY exchange rate stable and limit capital outflows. Thursday’s hike was the second this year. However, China’s official monetary policy benchmark deposit rate remains unchanged.

UK parliament passes Brexit bill
After several weeks of legislative wrangling, the UK parliament this week passed the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill and the queen has given Royal Assent, clearing the way for the government to begin negotiations to leave the EU. The two-year process is expected to be triggered by the end of this month.
G20 finance ministers meet
US treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin is set to meet with his G20 counterparts for the first time this weekend in Germany. Trade and currency issues will no doubt be at the top of the agenda. Mnuchin met with German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble on Thursday, with Mnuchin vowing to avoid trade wars while seeking to secure reciprocal trading arrangements.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Dutch populist party underperforms expectations
Support for Geert Wilder’s Freedom Party faded in the final days of the Dutch general election campaign with his party finishing a distant second to the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Rutte. Wilders had led in the polls for several months, but his party secured just 20 seats in the Dutch parliament versus 33 for Rutte’s party. Rutte will now need to forge a coalition with several other parties, a process which is expected to be lengthy, as Rutte has ruled out including the Freedom Party in any coalition. In addition to eyeing the performance of populist factions, observers monitoring the electoral performance of populist factions report increasing political fragmentation in Europe. For example, the Netherlands now has 13 parties claiming seats in parliament, with the leading party garnering only 21% of the vote.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

ADANIENT

105.25

ADANIPORTS

329.05

BAJAJFINACE

1184.00

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):


NOT YET IN (A) CAT

-------

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:


M&m fIN. SERVICES

13.10

REPCO HOME FINACE

12.98

INDIABULLS

12.87

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:


BHARAT ELECTRONI

-89.66

COAL INDIA LTD

-8.47

JAIPRAKASH ASSO

-6.35



Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:
Monday (20 Mar)
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Tuesday (21 Mar)
Week Bill Auction
Wednesday (22 Mar)
Existing Home Sales
Thursday (23 Mar)
New Home Sales & Jobless Claims
Friday (24 Mar)
PMI Composite Flash

Fundamental Pick of the week:
Buy Lupin Ltd For Target Rs.1,520.00
The stock has made a strong bottom in the last few weeks at sub 1400 with strong volumes and positive price action in the last few days.

The key technical indicators and RSI has also reversed turning upwards and as the stock is in poised for a breakout from current levels.The stock has closed near its short term averages confirming the uptrend and the recent swing high of 1550 could be tested in the next few weeks.
Thus, for trade, long position can be initiated for target of Rs 1520 with a stop loss of Rs 1415.

Indian Market Outlook:
Market on March 17, 2017
The Nifty opened gap-up above 9200 but could not build upon the early gains. The Index declined throughout the day and closed just above the daily upper Bollinger Band. Nevertheless, this is a minor correction and the larger trend still remains positive. In terms of the wave structure, the rally is getting sub-divided into lower degree waves and has the potential to sustain. The weekly close confirms the bullish inside bar breakout on the weekly chart, which indicates that the mediumterm trend is in favor of the bulls. Short-term and medium-term targets on the upside are 9230 and 9500, respectively. On the flip side, 9060-9000 will act as a key support area from a short-term perspective.

TECHNICAL VIEW:


S3

S2

S1

NIFTY

R1

R2

R3

9,000

9,060

9,125

9,160.05

9,245

9,275

9,340

Other technical observations
On the daily chart, the Nifty is trading above the 20- day moving average (DMA) and the 40-DEMA, ie 8947 and 8806 respectively. The momentum indicator is in a bullish mode on the daily chart.
On the hourly chart, the Nifty is trading above the 20- hour moving average (HMA) and the 40-HEMA, ie 9134 and 9081 respectively. The hourly momentum indicator is in a bearish mode.

Bank Nifty View
Long above 21300 for a move towards 21450/21500.Bearish below 21000 for a move towards 20800/20600. High madewas 21336 and low made was 21127 so bulls broke 21300 with gap up but bears became active and pushed the bank nifty below 21300, but bulls also did not let 21000 break so the range trade continues. Weekly close above 21000 is a very bullish sign as we have the Highest Weekly close. Long above 21300 for a move towards 21450/21500.Bearish below 21000 for a move towards 20800/20600. 

Conclusion:

The Indian equity markets zoomed after BJP’s overwhelming victory in Uttar Pradesh. The week that went by was a historic one for Nifty and Sensex in terms of new achievements. Nifty breached its all time high and crossed 9200, however, the 9200 mark acted as resistance for the benchmark index. Sensex too soared 616 points in a day on Thursday and closed at the peak level at 29,586. Foreign investors have renewed confidence after the UP elections results boosted hope of further reforms. On the other hand, as widely expected, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the second time in 3-months. Interestingly, Nifty sectoral indices set new records as the market negated the US Fed rate hike and continued with the upward momentum.

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