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How January panned out:
In January till 27th market moved up by 11%. FII were net buyer to the tune of Rs 7778 crore and DII were seller to the tune of 5252 crore in the Indian Equity market.
Development that swayed the market:
RBI Cut CRR: In the mid Quarter Monetary Policy review RBI cut the CRR by 50 bps. Market was expecting some 25 bps cut in CRR. Market reacted positively to the cut. After January 2009 CRR was cut by 50 bps to 5.5%. This will increase the liquidity in the system by Rs 32, 000 crore.
This could be taken as an indication of cut in repo and reverse repo rate in the coming policy meet.
Repo and Reverse Repo remained unchanged at 8.5% and 7.5% respectively.
US Fed Indicating of QE3:
In the FOMC meet Fed indicated of Quantitative Easing 3. Commodity and all the asset class reacted positively to the news. Dollar fell against all the major currencies.
NIFTY- 5, 205
BRENT CRUDE OIL-Rs 5, 534/ barrel
GOLD-Rs 28, 017/ 10 gram
Rs/$-Rs 49.3
MARKET ROUND UP:
30-share Sensex jumped 495 points or 2.96% to close at 17,234 during the week ended 27th January, 2012. On the other hand Nifty gained by 156 points or 3.09% to close at 5,205 during the week ended 27th January, 2012.
Mid-cap gained 193 points or 3.39% to close at 5,872 and BSE Small-cap moved up by 214 points or 3.42% to close at 6,491.69 during the week ended 27th January, 2012.
Indian market closed the week on positive note on back of CRR cut by the RBI and indication of QE3 by Fed in the FOMC meet on Tuesday.
Inflation:
Food inflation continues to be in the negative zone at 1.03% for the week ended January 14 against negative 0.42% in the previous week.
Rupee Update:
Rupee kept its appreciating Journey on track. It moved below the Rs 50/$ psychological level to close at Rs 49.3/$. Rupee appreciation could be attributed to the softness seen in the dollar against all major currencies and record FII investment in the equity market in January. Also exporters were seen booking dollars.
Crude Update:
Crude price remained firm at $110/ barrel on Brent. A increase of 1.2% on weekly basis.
MAJOR SECTORAL GAINERS:
CAPITAL GOODS |
5.60% |
AUTO |
4.30% |
IT |
4% |
CONSUMER DURABLE |
3.40% |
PSU |
2.50% |
POWER |
2.10% |
PHARMA |
1.50% |
FMCG |
0.70% |
MAJOR SECTORAL LOSERS:
No major sectoral losers. Only Realty sector closed with minor loss of -0.25%.
MAJOR GAINERS IN ‘A’ CATEGORY:
SUZLON |
25.20% |
ESSAR OIL |
21.30% |
EVEREST KANTO |
21% |
MAJOR LOSERS IN ‘A’ CATEGORY
VIDEOCON IND |
-7.50% |
ALSTOM PROJECTS |
-6.80% |
ADANI ENTERPRISES |
-6% |
TREND IN GLOBAL MARKET DURING THE WEEK:
DOW JONES |
-0.50% |
FTSE |
0.10% |
DAX |
1.70% |
CAC |
-0.10% |
BOVESPA |
1% |
NIKKEI |
0.90% |
SINGAPORE |
2.30% |
HANG SENG |
1.90% |
SENSEX |
3% |
Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:
Monday
Personal Income and Outlays
Tuesday
Employment Cost Index
Chicago PMI
Consumer Confidence
State Street Investor Confidence Index
Farm Prices
Wednesday
Motor Vehicle Sales
ADP Employment Report
ISM Manufacturing Index
Construction Spending
EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday
Chain Store Sales
Jobless Claims
Productivity and Costs
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
EIA Natural Gas Report
Friday
Employment Situation
Factory Orders
ISM Non Manufacturing Index
FII TREND DURING THE WEEK:
(Figures in Crore)
23/01/2012 |
997.3 |
24/01/2012 |
-12.8 |
25/01/2012 |
909.1 |
27/01/2012 |
1172.2 |
FII were net buyers during the week to the tune of Rs 3065.8 crore.
KEY RESULT ANNOUNCED DURING THE WEEK:
BHEL: Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) has posted a net profit of Rs 14.33 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2011 as compared to Rs 14.03 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2010, representing an increase of 2.09%. Total income increased from Rs 88.49 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2010 to Rs 105.48 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2011, representing an increase of 19.20%.
NTPC: National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) has posted a net profit of Rs 21.30 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2011 as compared to Rs 23.72 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2010, representing decrease of 10.17%. Total income increased from Rs 135.12 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2010 to Rs 153.84 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2011, representing an increase of 16.86%.
Canara Bank: Canara Bank has posted a net profit of Rs 8.75 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2011 as compared to Rs 11.05 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2010, representing a decrease of 20.81%. Total income has increased from Rs 64.44 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2010 to Rs 85.91 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2011, representing an increase of 33.32%.
Bank of India: Bank of India (BOI) has posted a net profit of Rs 7.16 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2011 as compared to Rs 6.53 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2010, representing an increase of 9.65%. Total income has increased from Rs 61.15 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2010 to Rs 80.02 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2011representing an increase of 30.86%.
Petronet LNG: Petronet LNG has posted a net profit of Rs 2.95 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2011 as compared to Rs 1.70 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2010, representing an increase of 73.53%. Total income has increased from Rs 36.33 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2010 to Rs 63.46 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2011, representing an increase of 74.68%.
Bharat Electronics: Bharat Electronics (BEL) has posted a net profit of Rs 1.74 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2011 as compared to Rs 1.70 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2010, representing an increase of 2.35%. Total income has increased from Rs 14.19 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2010 to Rs 15.89 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2011, representing an increase of 12%.
NHPC: NHPC has posted a net profit of Rs 2.12 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2011 as compared to Rs 3 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2010, representing a decrease of 29.33%. Total income has increased from Rs 9.17 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2010 to Rs 10.85 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2011, representing an increase of 18.32%.
Fundamental Picks of the Week:
Idea Cellular Target Rs 105
Asahi Songwon Target Rs 121
Geometric Target Rs 80
CLOSE WATCH FOR WEEK AHEAD:
Auto Sales number.
Cement Dispatch
India’s Export and Import data for the month of December
India’s Q3 GDP
RESULTS TO WATCH DURING THE WEEK:
MONDAY |
TUESDAY |
WEDNESDAY |
THURSDAY |
FRIDAY |
ORIENT PAPER |
PTC INDIA |
WELSPUN CORP |
LA OPALA |
HIND COPPER |
GHCL |
FINANCIAL TECH |
ASHOK LEY |
ESSAR PORT |
HPCL |
HAVELLS |
KEC INT |
KALE CONS |
ANDHRA BANK |
PFC |
PVR |
CITY UNION |
UCO BANK |
WHIRLPOOL |
ROLTA |
NMDC |
FDC |
|
CORPORATION BANK |
GODREJ IND |
GLENMARK |
IPCA |
|
ONGC |
DR REDDYS |
NFL |
PNB |
|
MARICO |
|
ALLAHABAD BK |
BERGER PAINTS |
|
|
|
OBC |
CROMPTON GREAVES |
|
|
|
ZEE LEARN |
DABUR INDIA |
|
|
|
ARCHIES |
|
|
|
|
TECHNICALS:
S3 |
S2 |
S1 |
NIFTY |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
5, 020 |
5, 060 |
5, 170 |
5, 205 |
5, 245 |
5, 300 |
5, 350 |
Nifty is going to have positive breakout. Closing above 5, 210 levels will again bring nifty in bullish territory. 5, 210 is the 200 DMA.
Nifty has crucial support at 5, 020 level. If support is breached then it can fall further. But for now it seems Nifty looks poised to consolidate the gain at these levels.
Continuous buying in the last one month has seen 14 day RSI moving into the overbought territory. 14 day RSI is at 75. It suggests some profit taking could happen at these levels.
CONCLUSION:
We expect market to consolidate at these levels. Players could hold the position with trailing stop loss. It is not advisable to go fresh long at these points as risk reward ratio is not favorable. Players could play on stock specific story. In anticipation of some packages and investment in the budget, stocks could show some run up. Investors who have bought at the lows of December could start trimming the position as they have made handsome gain.
SHARETIPSINFO Team
www.sharetipsinfo.com
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