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FM Sitharaman press conference: Here is what different sectors are expecting

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India Inc will closely watch Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's announcements on May 13.

Sitharaman will address a press conference at 4 pm providing further information on the Rs 20 lakh crore economic package announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on May 12.

PM Modi said the economic measures earlier announced by the government to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic, steps taken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), and the latest package would come up to a total of Rs 20 lakh crore, nearly 10 percent of India's gross domestic product (GDP).

PM Modi hinted that there might be some measures announced for a large number of sectors.

>> Sectors such as auto and real estate will be looking at resumption of manufacturing and construction, and measures that could help push consumer demand.

Sales of commercial vehicles (CVs) and houses have plunged since the lockdown began on March 25.

>> The power sector, too, has seen a sharp drop in demand during the lockdown and is hoping for measures that could help revive demand and stem losses.

>> Ecommerce companies, which are yet to resume non-essential services in red zones, may see some announcements in this regard.

Online marketplaces were initially allowed to provide only essential items and services during the lockdown. They are now permitted to provide non-essential services as well in orange and green zones.

>> The aviation sector might look for any word on the resumption of commercial flights, which have been suspended since March 25.

This sector is looking out for announcements that could help them deal with the revenue loss faced during the lockdown.

China announces new list of US imports eligible for trade war tariff waivers

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China on Tuesday released a list of 79 American products which will be exempted from the second round of retaliatory tariffs imposed at the peak of the bilateral trade war, as it faced fresh pressure from the US to import more to end the bruising dispute.

This is the second list of American goods to be excluded from the second round of tariff countermeasures against the US Section 301 measure, according to a statement from the Customs Tariff Commission of China's State Council.

The exemption will be valid from May 19, 2020, to May 18, 2021, it said.

There are 79 products in total on the list published on Tuesday by the Ministry of Finance that included rare earth mineral ores, aircraft radar equipment, semiconductor parts, medical disinfectants, and a range of precious metals, chemical and petrochemical products.

well as petrochemical products.

Tariffs that have already been levied will be refunded, the statement said. The remaining US products subject to China's second round of additional tariffs will not be excluded for the time being, it said.

For US products that are not on the first two lists, the commission advised enterprises to apply for the exemption of additional tariffs following a specific product list that applies to domestic firms which plan to sign deals to purchase and import these products from the United States in a market-oriented and commercial fashion, the state-run Xinhua news agency reported.

The US and China signed the phase one deal on January 16 to end the 22-month-long trade war during which two countries slapped tit-for-tat tariff hikes over nearly half a trillion USD worth of products.

Under the January deal, China agreed to increase its purchases of US goods from a 2017 baseline by USD 200 billion over two years.

China's announcement comes at a point when two countries are engaged in fiery exchanges over the origin of the coronavirus pandemic that had cast a shadow over the deal.

US President Donald Trump last week threatened to tear up the phase one trade deal if China did not increase its imports of US goods, as per the purchasing agreement element of the deal.

Trump had launched the trade war with China in 2018 demanding Beijing to reduce the massive trade deficit.

The US goods trade deficit with China was USD 419.2 billion in 2018.

His demands included an intrusive verification mechanism to supervise Beijing's promise to protect intellectual property rights (IPR) technology transfer and more access to American goods to Chinese markets.

Make modest opening of road, air transport to start economic activity: Chidambaram

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Senior Congress leader P Chidambaram on Monday urged the government to allow operation of road and air transport, saying it was the only way economic and commercial activities can effectively resume. He also welcomed the government's decision to start select inter-state train services.

The government has decided to start train services from May 12 connecting Delhi to some select stations across the country, bookings for which will begin from Monday by the IRCTC.

"We welcome the decision of the government to cautiously start operation of inter state passenger trains. The same modest opening should be started with road transport and air transport," the former finance minister said.

"The only way economic and commercial activity can effectively begin, is to open road, rail and air services for passengers and goods," Chidambaram said on Twitter.

The Congress has been demanding restarting of economic activities which have come to a standstill in view of the complete lockdown enforced due to coronavirus.

The Congress has also demanded a relief package for the poor and an economic stimulus package to help the industry.

Govt working on financial package for all sectors, says official

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The government is working on a comprehensive financial package not only for MSMEs but for all sectors of the economy, a top official said on Thursday. "Government of India, Prime Minister's Office and the Department of Economic Affairs are already working on a package, which includes not only the MSME but also the entire industry. All sectors of the economy being taken care of by a comprehensive package, being worked out in the government," said Giridhar Aramane, Secretary in the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways.

He was speaking during an interaction with members of SIAM (Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers) Institute via video conferencing.

Participating in the same meeting, Union Minister for MSME and Road Transport and Highways Nitin Gadkari also said "a package is going to be declared".

The demand for a package to stimulate the economy has been growing from various quarters, including industry bodies and MSME sector experts.

India's micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), which contributes 29 per cent to the country's growth and 48 per cent to exports, is a major employment generator.

However, the sector is facing a huge crisis amid coronavirus pandemic, with millions of units staring at losses and the prospect of job cuts as they struggle to survive.

Government extends last date for filing annual GST return for FY19 until September

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The government has extended the last date for filing annual GST return for financial year 2018-19 by three months till September 2020.

In another trade-friendly move, the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) has also extended the validity of e-way bills that were generated on or before March 24, and had expiry between March 20 and April 15, 2020.

A notification has been issued to extend the time limit for furnishing of annual (goods and services tax) return and reconciliation statement for the financial year 2018-19 till September 30, 2020, CBIC said in a tweet.

EY Tax Partner Abhishek Jain said, "With most part of the country under lockdown or partial lockdown, it would have been difficult for the industry to meet the timeline of June end. The extension provides much-needed relief to the industry and demonstrates the accommodative stance of the government."

A nationwide lockdown to contain the spread of coronavirus was imposed on March 25, which has now been extended till May 17.

Last month, CBIC had extended the validity of e-way bills generated on or before March 24, and had expiry between March 20 and April 15, till April 30.

In view of the extension of lockdown and helping industry that has goods stuck in transit, the validity has now been extended till May 31.

Government looking to lure businesses moving out of China with seamless land acquisition policy: Report

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With countries looking to reduce dependence on China after the coronavirus pandemic, India is looking to seize the chance to lure foreign investors searching for new shores.

India is preparing 461,589 hectares of land across the country, for businesses looking to migrate out of China, sources told Bloomberg. Twice as large as Luxembourg (243,000 hectares), the land pool includes areas in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, it said.

Moneycontrol could not independently verify the report.

The central government is working along with the states to smooth the processes and availability of land as the scope now is huge, it noted. Presently, investors have to acquire land on their own, where disputes with small land owners holding on to plots delay projects.

Thus, providing accessible land would solve a major hurdle and attract investors who openly expressed their intent to move away from China. Many companies suffered global supply chain disruptions as the concentration of business in China proved to be harmful when regions locked down due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

COVID-19 | Q1 global contractions indicate a deepening crisis

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Due to the spread of coronavirus and the global lockdown, multilateral organisations and international agencies have been predicting the worst economic downturn since Great Depression. All are almost unanimous on this view for two main reasons. First, the virus has affected both the developed and developing economies simultaneously. Its geographical coverage is now expanding. It is not just China, Europe and the United States; it is now spreading fast into Russia, Turkey, South Asia, West Asia and Latin America.

Second, it has drastically reduced both demand and supply. When the governments themselves have directed industry and services to shut operations, traditional stimulus packages have little meaning.

Now it is not just forecasts, actual GDP numbers for Q1 2020 for some major economies are out. The extent of their decline has surpassed some earlier predictions. The European Union’s (EU)’s statistical agency, Eurostat, has reported that for the 2020 first quarter, the GDP in 19 Eurozone economies has shrunk by 3.8 percent. The same figure for 27 EU economies is minus 3.5 percent. France, the second-largest economy in the EU, has announced that its GDP has dropped by minus 5.6 percent, its biggest drop since 1949. This drop is much bigger than recorded during the financial crisis in Q1 2009 (–1.6 percent) or during political upheaval in Q2 1968 (–5.3 percent). Except food, all sectors have seen contraction, with the sharpest decline in engineering goods and construction

Compared to the previous quarter, the Italian GDP dropped by 4.7 percent. Similarly, the Spanish economy contracted by 5.2 percent  and the Austrian economy by 2.5 percent. When released, the German economic numbers may show similar trends. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), says that the euro area is “facing an economic contraction of a magnitude and speed that are unprecedented in peacetime”. The ECB now estimates that in 2020, the fall of euro area GDP could be between five and 12 percent.

The United States has also reported that in Q1-2020, its GDP has decreased by minus 4.8 percent. In the previous quarter, the US had shown a healthy growth of 2.1 percent. China, the second-largest economy, which was affected first, earlier declared a 6.8 percent decline in the first three months of 2020 from a year ago. This is the first time China has seen this kind of decline since it started recording quarterly data since 1992.

With more than 42,000 infections and already close to six weeks of national lockdown, India’s growth story cannot be very different. Earlier, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted about 2 percent GDP growth in India in 2020. With the developing global recession, India will be fortunate if it is able to achieve this. The economy was already weakening when lockdown started. Still, developing economies such as India, may perform slightly better. Agriculture and basic food items are lest affected by lockdowns. Also, a large number of people in these countries still depend on agriculture and spend significant part of their earnings on food items. India is also less integrated with global value chains.

Since lockdowns started in March in many countries, a much bigger downturn is expected in the second quarter. IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath predicts that the cumulative loss from the pandemic to global GDP in 2020 and 2021 “could be around $9 trillion, greater than the economies of Japan and Germany, combined”.

To offset these impacts, all major economic powers are infusing huge amounts into their economies. The collective response from the EU and its member states is well above 3 trillion euros. The US package of $2trillion include relief to big corporates and small businesses, individuals, states and local governments as well as public health. Japan has announced a $1 trillion relief package. These measures, however, will only be useful if at least some treatment is found by the third quarter and economies start opening up.

Despite massive relief packages, a joint global effort is vital to resolve the health problems first. On May 4, the EU — along with Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Norway, the United Kingdom, and current and future G20 presidency Saudi Arabia and Italy — is hosting a pledging event: the Coronavirus Global Response Initiative.

Co-convened by WHO and World Bank, the initiative aims to garner at least $8 billion for jointly developing solutions to test, treat and prevent the disease from spreading. New diagnostics, treatments and vaccines needs to be affordable and available to all. With its strong pharmaceutical industry, India could be a valuable partner to these global solutions. The hydroxychloroquine episode has already proved its strength.

The first quarter GDP results from major economies indicate the seriousness of the economic recession. The next quarter could be worse. Massive relief packages by major powers could be useful to the global economy. However, they will only work if a joint global effort is successful in developing affordable health solutions soon.

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