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India's January-July coffee exports flat at 2.38 lakh tonnes

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Coffee shipments from India, Asia's third-largest producer and exporter, remained flat at 2,38,669 tonnes so far this calendar year with maximum shipments made to Italy, as per the Coffee Board.

The country had shipped 2,37,780 tonnes of coffee bean during January-July in the previous year, its data showed.

India exports large volumes of Robusta variety of coffee bean, followed by Arabica and instant coffee.

According to the board, export of Robusta coffee rose to 1,35,892 tonnes till July 2019, from 1,26,254 tonnes in the year-ago period.

Arabica coffee shipments, however, declined to 37,609 tonnes from 40,795 tonnes in the said period.

Even shipment of instant coffee showed a decline as volumes dropped to 12,504 tonnes during January-July of this calendar year from 16,303 tonnes in the same period in 2018.

Re-export of coffee was also slightly down at 52,513 tonnes from 54,222 tonnes in the period under review.

Of the total exports, more than 55,000 tonnes of coffee is estimated to have been shipped to Italy, followed by over 25,000 tonnes to Germany and about 16,000 tonnes to Russian Federation.

The country's coffee output is pegged at 3,19,500 tonnes for the 2018-19 marketing year (October-November), as against 3,16,000 tonnes in the previous marketing year.

Readymade garment makers expect 10% revenue growth in CY2019: Report

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The Indian readymade garment (RMG) makers are likely to witness revenue growth of 10 per cent in this calendar year, mainly driven by healthy domestic demand and 10 per cent growth in exports, the report said.

Crisil Ratings expect revenue growth of RMG makers to accelerate 300 basis points (bps) to 10 per cent in calendar 2019 (CY), compared with 7 per cent in CY2018, riding on robust domestic demand and a spurt in exports.

Higher revenue growth will provide the benefit of operating leverage and will help improve profitability, it said adding that profitability of exporters is also aided by favourable exchange rate and restoration of incentives, resulting in better cash generation, which will improve the credit profiles of RMG firms this fiscal.

Credit profiles had moderated in the previous two fiscals owing to depreciation in the rupee against the dollar and a reduction in export incentives, it said.

Domestic sales logged an annual growth rate of 9.6 per cent in the five years through CY2018 to Rs 4.83 lakh crore, which was 80 per cent of the sector's revenue.

That pace is set to increase to 10-10.5 percent this year for two reasons, increasing penetration of both organised retail and brands in tier II and III cities, and rising growth of value apparel retail segment.

Complementing healthy domestic growth will be a rebound in exports growth to 7-8 per cent this year after two years of de-growth. In the first 6 months of this year, RMG exports are already up over 10 per cent compared to last year.

Exports growth will benefit from a likely depreciation in the rupee against the dollar, a partial restoration of export incentives recently and a pick-up in growth in the United Arab Emirates, the third-largest exports destination after the US and the European Union, the report said.

"Operating profitability of domestic-focussed RMG firms is expected to remain stable at 10-11 per cent, whereas that of exporters should improve another 50-100 bps this fiscal, on top of the 100-120 bps increase seen last fiscal. Exporters will benefit from the higher export incentives," Crisil Ratings senior director Anuj Sethi said.

Going forward, currency volatility and the government policy on export incentives will be key things to watch out, he added.

Readymade garment makers expect 10% revenue growth in CY2019: Report

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The Indian readymade garment (RMG) makers are likely to witness revenue growth of 10 per cent in this calendar year, mainly driven by healthy domestic demand and 10 per cent growth in exports, the report said.

Crisil Ratings expect revenue growth of RMG makers to accelerate 300 basis points (bps) to 10 per cent in calendar 2019 (CY), compared with 7 per cent in CY2018, riding on robust domestic demand and a spurt in exports.

Higher revenue growth will provide the benefit of operating leverage and will help improve profitability, it said adding that profitability of exporters is also aided by favourable exchange rate and restoration of incentives, resulting in better cash generation, which will improve the credit profiles of RMG firms this fiscal.

Credit profiles had moderated in the previous two fiscals owing to depreciation in the rupee against the dollar and a reduction in export incentives, it said.

Domestic sales logged an annual growth rate of 9.6 per cent in the five years through CY2018 to Rs 4.83 lakh crore, which was 80 per cent of the sector's revenue.

That pace is set to increase to 10-10.5 percent this year for two reasons, increasing penetration of both organised retail and brands in tier II and III cities, and rising growth of value apparel retail segment.

Complementing healthy domestic growth will be a rebound in exports growth to 7-8 per cent this year after two years of de-growth. In the first 6 months of this year, RMG exports are already up over 10 per cent compared to last year.

Exports growth will benefit from a likely depreciation in the rupee against the dollar, a partial restoration of export incentives recently and a pick-up in growth in the United Arab Emirates, the third-largest exports destination after the US and the European Union, the report said.

"Operating profitability of domestic-focussed RMG firms is expected to remain stable at 10-11 per cent, whereas that of exporters should improve another 50-100 bps this fiscal, on top of the 100-120 bps increase seen last fiscal. Exporters will benefit from the higher export incentives," Crisil Ratings senior director Anuj Sethi said.

Going forward, currency volatility and the government policy on export incentives will be key things to watch out, he added.

China gives up two of its best-kept forex reserve secrets

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  • The country’s holdings of foreign currency generated an annual average return of 3.68 per cent from 2005 to 2014
  • By the end of 2014, US dollar assets accounted for 58 per cent of China’s total foreign exchange reserves, down from 79 per cent in 2005

China has for the first time disclosed its return on investment of its foreign exchange reserves and the share of US dollar-denominated assets in the stockpile.

Foreign exchange reserves generated an annual average return of 3.68 per cent from 2005 to 2014, according to the 2018 annual report released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (Safe) on Sunday. The agency did not provide more recent figures.

By the end of 2014, US dollar assets accounted for 58 per cent of China’s total reserves, down from 79 per cent in 2005, the administration said, adding that the share of the assets in the US currency was lower than the global average of 65 per cent in 2014.

“The currency structure of China’s foreign exchange reserves has been increasingly diversified, and it is more diversified than the international average,” 

GBP Slumps as CBI Warns Neither UK nor EU are Ready for No-Deal

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GBP TALKING POINTS:

  • CBI warns neither UK nor EU are ready for the disruption that a no-deal would cause
  • GBP faces further losses as Boris Johnson appoints hard-line Brexiteers as cabinet members to ensure Brexit is delivered by October 31
  • BoE expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.75% on Thursday as Brexit uncertainty continues

Increasing talks of a no-deal Brexit are not boding well for the pound as GBPUSD fell to 28-month lows and EURGBP surpassed the psychological 0.90 line. Since Johnson was appointed as PM last Tuesday the pound has fallen 1.5% against both the dollar and the euro, as he formed his cabinet with hard-line Brexiteer members, putting everyone on notice that he is serious about his “do or die” stance on Brexit.

In recent news, Business Industry experts CBI have warned the government that neither the UK nor the EU are prepared to face the consequences of a no-deal Brexit, where almost every sector of the EU and UK would face disruption. The report suggests that despite UK businesses having spent billions of pounds already on contingency plans in case of a hard Brexit, the uncertainty and lack of clarity about dates and costs has left most of them feeling like there are not enough measures in place to counteract the disruption.


But instead of pressuring the PM to work together with the EU to achieve amendments to the current deal, Boris Johnson could use this information as leverage to continue his “deal or no-deal stance” if he believes that the EU will give in to pressure because they are also considered to be unprepared for a hard Brexit. But given the repeated warnings by EU commissioners that there is no possible amendment that can be made to the current withdrawal deal, it is unlikely that a new deal will be reached before the October 31 deadline.

Jean-Claude Juncker told Boris Johnson last week that the EU would analyse any proposals put forth by the UK as long as they were compatible with the terms set out in the agreement initially negotiated with Theresa May. The main point of divergence between both sides of the agreement is the Irish backstop, which would leave the UK abiding by EU rules unless another arrangement is found. Boris Johnson has said that the only way to avoid a no-deal Brexit would be to abolish the backstop from the agreement, which the EU has rejected.

The Bank of England will release its inflation report on Thursday ahead of its interest rate decision with expectations that rates will remain unchanged at 0.75% as MPC officials stick to their wait and see what happens with Brexit before adjusting its monetary policy rhetoric, given that both inflation and the jobs market are behaving well.


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Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman seeks more rate cuts, says no review on overseas borrowing plan: Report

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Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman, called for a "significant" reduction in the central bank's policy rates and said the government did not intend to review the budget proposal for overseas sovereign borrowings, the Economic Times (ET) reported on July 29.

India's benchmark 10-year bond yield was down 10 bps at 6.43% after falling to 6.42% immediately after market opened on the back of her comments.

The minister also said the increase in surcharge on foreign portfolio investments (FPI) was not intended to hurt investors, according to an interview published by the paper.

An influential Hindu nationalist group close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party has demanded his government review its plan to raise money by selling foreign currency bonds, Reuters reported earlier this month.

"I am not doing any review. I have not been asked by anyone to do a review," Sitharaman told ET.

The minister also told the paper there was room for further interest rate cuts.

"I'll honestly wish rate cut and yes a significant rate cut, would do a lot of good for the country," Sitharaman told the paper in an interview.

"We will now have to look at that route with a lot more hope. And, the industry also feels that there is space for it."

Indian shares pared early gains and moved lower on Monday with the broader NSE Nifty falling 0.3%.

US economic growth slows less than expected in second quarter

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US economic growth slowed less than expected in the second quarter as a surge in consumer spending blunted some of the drag from declining exports and a smaller inventory build, which could further allay concerns about the economy's health.

The fairly upbeat report from the Commerce Department will probably not deter the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates next Wednesday for the first time in a decade, given rising risks to the economy's outlook, especially from a trade war between the United States and China.

Despite the better-than-expected GDP reading, business investment contracted for the first time since early 2016 and housing contracted for a sixth straight quarter. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell early this month flagged business investment and housing as areas of weakness in the economy.

But the signs of robust consumer spending, together with a strong labor market, further diminish expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut and could raise doubts about further monetary policy easing this year.

Gross domestic product increased at a 2.1% annualized rate in the second quarter, the government said. The economy grew at an unrevised 3.1% pace in the January-March quarter.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP increasing at a 1.8% rate in the second quarter.

The economy is slowing largely as the stimulus from the White House's $1.5 trillion tax cut package fades. The tax cuts together with more government spending and deregulation were part of measures adopted by the Trump administration to boost annual economic growth to 3.0% on a sustained basis.

The economy grew 2.9% in 2018 and growth this year is expected to be around 2.5%. Economists estimate the speed at which the economy can grow over a long period without igniting inflation at between 1.7% and 2.0%.

The GDP report showed a pickup in inflation last quarter. A gauge of inflation tracked by the Fed increased at a 1.8% rate last quarter, just below the US central bank's 2% target.

The government also published revisions to GDP data from 2014 through 2018. The updated data showed growth in the second and third quarters of last year was not as robust as previously estimated, and the economy grew much more slowly in the fourth quarter than had been reported in March. Revised price data showed moderate inflation last year.

STRONG CONSUMER SPENDING

Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, surged at 4.3% rate in the second quarter, the fastest since the fourth quarter of 2017. Consumer spending grew at a 1.1% rate in the first quarter.

Some of the slowdown in consumer spending early in the year was blamed on a 35-day partial shutdown of the government. Spending is being supported by the lowest unemployment rate in nearly 50 years, which is lifting wages.

The jump in consumer spending helped to offset some of the weakness from exports, which fell at a 5.2% rate last quarter, in a reversal of the strong growth experienced in the first quarter.

The plunge in exports caused a deterioration of the trade deficit. As result, trade subtracted 0.65 percentage point from GDP growth last quarter after contributing 0.73 percentage point in the January-March period.

The acceleration in consumer spending also helped businesses to whittle down an inventory overhang, leading to a smaller inventory build.

Inventory investment increased at a $71.7 billion rate, slowing from the first quarter's $116.0 billion pace of increase. While inventories cut 0.86 percentage point from GDP growth in the second quarter, the smaller pace of stock accumulation is a potential boost to manufacturing.

Businesses have been placing fewer orders with factories while working through stockpiles of unsold goods, which contributed to undercutting manufacturing production. Inventories added 0.53 percentage point to GDP growth in the first quarter.

Business investment fell at 0.6% rate in the second quarter, the first contraction since the first quarter of 2016. It was pulled down by a 10.6% pace of decline in spending on structures, which includes oil and gas well drilling.

Spending on intellectual products, including research and development, increased. Business spending on equipment rebounded at a 0.7% rate in the second quarter. It is seen constrained by design problems at aerospace giant Boeing BA.N.

Boeing reported its biggest-ever quarterly loss on Wednesday due to the spiraling cost of resolving issues with its 737 MAX airplane and warned it might have to shut production of the grounded jet completely if it runs into new hurdles with global regulators to getting its best-selling aircraft back in the air.

The plane was grounded worldwide in March after two fatal crashes in Ethiopia and Indonesia. Production of the aircraft has been reduced and deliveries suspended.

Growth in government investment accelerated, but spending on homebuilding contracted for a sixth straight quarter.

The parting shot | Viral Acharya, the Deputy Governor who spoke his mind

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In the movie ‘3 Idiots’, the director of an engineering institute asks the students, “Who was the first person to step on the moon?” The students answered Neil Armstrong. He then asked “who was second?” Even before the students could answer, he said it does not matter as no one remembers who came second!

We can extend the analogy to the CEOs and MDs who are credited with success or blamed for the decline of organisations, but barely any attention is paid to their deputies.

Likewise, in the central banking world, it is the Governors who are remembered and not deputy governors. The crisis or success of monetary conditions is often attributed to the Governor with the name of the deputies never even mentioned.

Outgoing RBI deputy governor Viral Acharya did make efforts to change this hierarchy. He was not willing to play second fiddle to the Governor and built his own image.

His tenure started in January 2017 at a time when India was reeling under demonetisation. The early days were not that noticeable though he took up the important portfolio of monetary policy and economic research and also took up the cause of establishing public credit registry. Few had ideas that he was about to raise a storm in Indian economy.

The storm was raised in October 2018, when Acharya gave a speech which made most people -- including this author -- rub their eyes in disbelief. In his speech, Acharya openly criticised the Indian government for taking away the independence of the RBI. He cited the example of Argentina whose central bank has always been under pressure from the government only to invite ‘wrath from markets’. Comparison to the Argentinian central bank may have been far-fetched, but created the desired impact.

The speech opened a can of worms and led to a bitter squabble between the government and the RBI. Several issues such as the government eyeing a share of RBI’s reserves and using Section 10 of the RBI Act came to the fore. This was followed by the resignation of RBI Governor Urjit Patel in December 2018.  For central bank watchers, it was not a question of whether Acharya will resign but when. Thus it was not surprising when he chose to resign in June, six months before completion of his 3-year term.

Whether one liked the speech or not, it will go into the annals of the history of central banking as one of the most aggressive defences of central bank independence. That too from a deputy governor! Most Governors would think twice giving a speech on central bank independence and those who do, choose softer words and tone.

The October speech was not the lone one. He chose to leave the RBI with another hard-hitting speech where he questions the high government borrowing and how it is creating investment problems for the private sector. The speech was earlier given at IIM Ahmedabad -- in which the author was present -- and later as Hormis Memorial Lecture organised by Federal Bank in memory of its founder K P Hormis.

In the lecture, he asked the following question: Does government borrowing crowd out the private sector in India and what are its ramifications? To buttress his point, he shows how India’s fiscal deficit is second highest among G-20 countries.

This is obviously surprising to the common man who often learns from the financial press that India continues to meet its fiscal deficit target which is low and this augurs well for Indian economy. However, the catch is we mostly report the deficit number of the Centre ignoring that of the state governments. If we include the latter, we are placed just next to Brazil which suddenly makes the Indian economy look more vulnerable than it is made out to be.

Acharya went on to argue that if extra government spending was done to meet its capital expenditure, it is still fine and welcome. But that is not the case as the share of capital expenditure in total expenditure has consistently been around 15 percent. Further, as domestic savings are mostly used to finance the deficit, the private sector is crowded out and becomes reliant on capital flows from abroad. These capital flows are fickle and easily exit markets when there is a rise in global uncertainties as seen in 2013.  This makes private sector investment vulnerable to the global economy.

He spoke of three channels of crowding out. First is the real channel which says that when government borrowing increases, it leads to anticipation of higher taxes in future (called Ricardian equivalence). This leads the private sector to stop investing as they are likely to be taxed higher in future.

Second is bank lending channel where banks end up buying more government debt and do not lend to the private sector.

Third is corporate bond channel where financial companies such as mutual funds, insurance companies etc. begin to buy more government bonds compared to corporate bonds.

In the first channel, the private sector is not willing to invest and in the other two, it is not able to get funds for investment. In India, the bank credit channel is stronger than corporate bond channel. It also influences financial stability as corporates are forced to issue shorter-term bonds as the interest rates are high in the longer term.

Acharya also shows how crowding out is stronger when there are low foreign capital flows compared to the phase when it’s high. This also proves that when companies actually need more domestic savings as foreign inflows are weak, they are crowded out more.

The impact is even seen on interest rates. His research shows that when government debt rises by 1 percent, yields of AAA corporate debt rise by 2.3 percent, making it costlier for even the highest-rated firms. Monetary transmission is also stronger when share of government debt is below the median level.

His suggestion to the government is four-fold.

First, improve share of capital expenditure so that more spending is on public goods than meeting revenue expenditure of running the government.

Second, increase the share of disinvestment programme in the overall revenue, which will reduce borrowings and debt.

Third, establish an independent fiscal council that verifies the fiscal accounts and takes into account off-balance sheet borrowings which hide the true fiscal deficit.

Four, continue the emphasis on structural reforms on policy matters such as GST, the Bankruptcy code and on sectors such as labour and agriculture.

In the end analysis, the governments can bolster central banks by appointing capable deputies with an independent mind. This is evident from other geographies as well. Prominent examples include Guo Shuqing, deputy governor at the People’s Bank of China who gave a piece of his mind to the US government and Riksbank’s Cecilia Skingsley whose speeches have been useful in understanding digital currency. However, in today’s times, it is likely that governments want independent minded central bank officials as frictions have hit a new high or low, depending on which way you look at it.

Ex-RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan in running for IMF chief’s post?

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Former Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan is among the front runners for the post of International Monetary Fund’s managing director, days after Britain’s Foreign Office was urged to back an Indian for the job, according to media reports in the United Kingdom.

The IMF role fell vacant after current MD Christine Lagarde announced her resignation last week after she was nominated by the European Council as president of the European Central Bank. Her resignation takes effect from September 12.

As demands grow for the next IMF MD pick to be from outside Europe and America — as British foreign affairs committee chairman Tim Tugendhat wrote in a letter to foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt – The Sunday Times mentioned 53-year-old Rajan among the likely candidates.

“This is an ideal time for the job to be opened up to an emerging-market candidate. Raghuram Rajan, the former governor of India’s central bank… has good IMF credentials as one of its former chief economists,” wrote The Sunday Times’ economics editor David Smith.

Besides Rajan, names mentioned for the IMF role include the outgoing governor of Bank of England Mark Carney, former chancellor in the David Cameron government George Osborne, and former Dutch finance minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem who headed the group of finance ministers during the eurozone crisis.

Rajan, currently a professor at the University of Chicago, was often mentioned by the British media as the probable next governor for the Bank of England (BoE) — whose selection process is currently underway.

He has, however, denied applying for the job.

In an interview to BBC HARDtalk to be telecast on July 22, Rajan continued denying the rumours about being the next BoE governor, “I am perfectly happy in my job and that is not a diplomatic statement. It’s actually the truth. I haven’t applied for any job.”

“I really believe that the central banker’s job has become much more political in recent times. For that, it’s best that a country have somebody who understands the political structure within that country and how to navigate that.”

“That is something that people have to take into account when they determine who they want as the central bank governor. It’s obvious that I am an outsider and I have very little understanding of the deep ebbs and flows of politics in this country,” he said during the interview.

The new Bank of England governor is scheduled to be appointed later this year.

Carney’s term has been extended until January 2020 to support a smooth exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union and an effective transition to the next person in the key role.

First time in a month, forex reserves fall by $1.11 bn

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After touching record highs, the foreign exchange reserves declined by $1.113 billion to $428.797 billion in the week to July 12 - the first fall after four consecutive weeks of gains - due to a fall in foreign currency assets, show the latest weekly RBI data. In the previous reporting week, the reserves had surged by $2.236 billion to scale a new life-time high of $429.911 billion.

In the reporting week, foreign currency assets, which are a major component of the overall reserves, slipped by $1.11 billion to $399.697 billion, the central bank said July 19.

Expressed in dollar terms, foreign currency assets include the effect of appreciation/depreciation of non-US units like the euro, pound and yen held in the reserves.

Despite ongoing massive rally in gold prices, the country's gold reserves remained unchanged at $24.304 billion, according to the central bank data.

Special drawing rights with the International Monetary Fund fell by $1.2 million to $1.450 billion. The country's reserve position with the fund also declined by $1.5 million to $3.345 billion.

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