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Gold technical analysis: Drops to multi-day lows, back below $1500 handle

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  • Gold edged lower through the mid-European session on Monday and slipped below the key $1500 psychological mark to hit multi-day lows in the last hour.
  • Sustained weakness below 200-hour SMA - coinciding with 23.6% Fibo. level of the $1400-$1535 upsurge - was seen as a key trigger for intraday bearish traders.

Meanwhile, technical indicators have been gaining negative traction on hourly charts and support prospects for an extension of the corrective slide back towards testing last week's swing lows - around the $1483-81 region - nearing 38.2% Fibo. level.
 
However, oscillators on the daily chart maintained their bullish bias and might continue to attract some dip-buying interest, which might help limit further downside ahead of Wednesday's important release of the latest FOMC policy meeting minutes.Failure to defend the mentioned support might prompt some follow-through technical selling and accelerate the slide further towards $1475 intermediate support en-route 50$ Fibo. level - around the $1467-65 region amid fading safe-haven demand.

 
On the flip side, the $1500-10 region (23.6% Fibo. level and 100-hour SMA) now seems to act as an immediate resistance, which if cleared might accelerate the up-move towards $1522 intermediate resistance before the commodity aims back towards multi-year tops.


Gold 1-hourly chart

fxsoriginal

XAU/USD





OVERVIEW
Today last price1498.82
Today Daily Change-14.78
Today Daily Change %-0.98
Today daily open1513.6
 
TRENDS
Daily SMA201463.04
Daily SMA501420.56
Daily SMA1001355.11
Daily SMA2001317.2
LEVELS
Previous Daily High1527.65
Previous Daily Low1504.2
Previous Weekly High1534.4
Previous Weekly Low1481
Previous Monthly High1452.72
Previous Monthly Low1382.02
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1513.16
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1518.69
Daily Pivot Point S11502.65
Daily Pivot Point S21491.7
Daily Pivot Point S31479.2
Daily Pivot Point R11526.1
Daily Pivot Point R21538.6
Daily Pivot Point R31549.55

Forex - Dollar Hovering Near 3-Week Highs ahead of Fed Minutes

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The U.S. dollar was hovering just below three-week highs in subdued trade on Wednesday as investors looked ahead to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting later in the day for fresh clues on the monetary policy outlook.

The Fed cut rates for the first time since 2008 last month in what Chairman Jerome Powell called a “mid-cycle adjustment.” Financial markets are still expecting further rate cuts before the end of the year against a background of heightened trade tensions and slowing growth.

The minutes come ahead of the central bank's annual Jackson Hole seminar later this week, where Powell is to give an eagerly awaited speech on Friday. His comments are of particular interest after last week's inversion of the U.S. yield curve - widely regarded as a recession signal - boosted expectations the Fed would cut rates again at its September meeting.

The U.S. dollar index against a basket of six major currencies edged up 0.12% to 98.17 by 03:05 AM ET (07:05 GMT) after shedding 0.2% overnight.

The index had climbed to 98.33 on Tuesday, its highest since Aug. 1, as U.S. yields bounced from multi-year lows at the week's start on signs global policymakers were ready to step up stimulus support to stave off a steep economic downturn.

U.S. yields, however, declined overnight on the prospect of more easing by the Fed.

Takuya Kanda, general manager at Gaitame.Com Research Institute, believes U.S. President Donald Trump's "strong desire for deep rate cuts" may raise hopes among some traders of strong easing signals at Jackson Hole. But he also warned that Powell may opt to give little away in his speech as the Fed prepares for next month's meeting.The dollar rose 0.34% to 106.58 yen reversing a part of the previous day's losses, while the euro was a touch lower at 1.1089 having put on 0.2% overnight.

The single currency dipped briefly after Italy's Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced his resignation on Tuesday.

"Conte's resignation won't have a strong impact on the euro in the longer run as it is only a chapter in the ever-shifting Italian politics," said Kanda at Gaitame.Com Research.

In addition to the Fed, the euro also has to contend with the possibility of the European Central Bank easing policy in September.

The Bundesbank said on Monday that the German economy may have continued to shrink over the summer as industrial production declined. That would mean the euro zone's biggest economy is now in recession following the second quarter's decline reported last week. Recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth."Germany in recession would generate a strong buzz, and there is no doubt that economic conditions in the zone would force the ECB to take its next policy steps," said Daisuke Karakama, chief market economist at Mizuho Bank.

Sterling was down 0.24% to 1.2138, giving back some of the previous sessions gains.

The British pound rose after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the European Union would think about practical solutions regarding the post-Brexit Irish border.

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Forex - U.S. Dollar Flat; Euro Also Little Changed as Italy’s PM quits

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 The U.S. dollar was near flat on Wednesday in Asia, while the Euro was also largely unchanged as Italy’s Prime Minister quit.

The U.S. dollar index that tracks a basket of other currencies was little changed at 98.107. A gathering of central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming and a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell are expected to be major directional drivers for the U.S. currency.

The Fed will release minutes of its July policy meeting minutes due later in the day. In July, the central slashed rate for the first time since the financial crisis.

The euro was also near flat after Italy’s Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said he is resigning ahead of no-confidence vote.

The latest reports suggested that it is unclear if snap elections would be called or if parliament would be asked to try and form a new government.

The safe-haven Japanese yen fell against the U.S. dollar even as stock markets traded lower amid concerns on a slowing global economy. Uncertainties surrounding the U.S.-China relations also affected market sentiment, as U.S. President Donald Trump said he had to “take China on” even if it would cause short-term impact on U.S. economy.

"Somebody had to take China on," Trump told reporters during a White House visit by Romanian President Klaus Iohannis. "This is something that had to be done. The only difference is I am doing it," he said.

"China has been ripping this country off for 25 years, for longer than that and it's about time whether it's good for our country or bad for our country short term. Long term it's imperative that somebody does this," he said.

The AUD/USD pair inched up 0.4% to 0.6778. The NZD/USD pair slipped 0.1% to 0.6407.

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Gold Price and Silver Outlook Remains Constructive So Far

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GOLD & SILVER PRICE TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:

  • Gold pullback may deepen, but constructive so far
  • Silver has support not too far away to keep it bid

For an intermediate-term fundamental and technical viewpoint, see the Q3 Gold Forecast.

GOLD PULLBACK MAY DEEPEN, BUT CONSTRUCTIVE SO FAR

Last week, gold ran into major long-term resistance by way of lows created following the 2011 spike-high, and the volatile price action last Tuesday cemented the bottom of the 1522/75 zone as a legitimate ceiling.

The decline so far has been subtle with little to no change since a week ago, a bullish development thus far. Gradual, stubborn declines following sharp run-ups into resistance are considered a good thing; it shows buying interest even at a hint of weakness.This doesn’t mean something won’t further spur gold along to the downside, but as long as it doesn’t turn outright aggressive, then weakness will be treated only as a correction within an ongoing bull-move that began since the wedge-breakout in June.

A good spot for would-be longs is the trend-line running up from late May in the vicinity of 1450/60. A decline and hold there would offer enough room back up to the resistance zone for a good risk/reward swing-trade with potential to turn it into something much larger if a breakout above 1575 were to develop.

For now, gold is still close to a major zone of resistance and at risk of correcting further or at least moving sideways for a bit longer. This takes some shine off of fresh longs, but doesn’t invoke much confidence in shorts given the generally strong nature of gold.

Check out the IG Client Sentiment page to see how changes in trader positioning can help signal the next price move in gold and other major markets and currencies.

Silver price action is similar to gold, constructive so far despite last Tuesday’s volatile session. There is good support by way of a couple of directions. There is the 2003 trend-line that once acted as resistance, then there is the trend-line from July rising up near current levels. Sideways price action has silver looking like it wants to maintain and build on the rally that began at the end of May.RESOURCES FOR FOREX & CFD TRADERS

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Forex - Euro Tests Lows Ahead of Expected No-Confidence Vote in Italy

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The dollar was little changed in early trading in Europe Wednesday but starting to build momentum against the euro at the start of a day where politics is likely to dominate economics.

The euro was at $1.1079 by 3:30 AM ET (0730 GMT) and looking to test last week’s low of $1.1066 ahead of a big day in the Italian parliament. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte is due to speak in the afternoon and is expected to resign ahead of a no-confidence vote that has been called by the right-wing Lega party, the junior member of the governing coalition. While both the Lega and its partner the 5 Stars Movement appear to have given up on continuing their government, it is far from clear what might follow if the no confidence vote succeeds.

Snap elections are one possibility, but it is also possible that President Sergio Mattarella will ask the parties in parliamment to form a new government. Theoretically, the 5 Stars Movement and the traditional center-left Democratic Party are capable of forming a majority that could pass a budget for the coming year and perhaps take the sting out of the country’s budget dispute with the European Union. However, that would require the two parties to set aside a good deal of past animosity toward each other.

Economics are also against the euro at present, after the Deutsche Bundesbank warned in its monthly report on Monday that it expects a second straight quarter of contraction in the summer, meaning that the euro zone’s traditional engine room would be in recession for the first time in a decade.

The euro was, however, strengthening against the pound after Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s latest initiative on Brexit underlined the distance between the U.K. and EU positions on how to manage the Irish border in future. In an open letter to EU Council President Donald Tusk, Johnson again reiterated the desire for freedom to diverge from the EU’s regulatory standards in the long term, a prospect which the EU has always said will require border and customs checks to be introduced.

The pound was at 1.0927 against the euro, down 0.3% from late Monday and apparently resuming its slide, ending a short-covering rally that was triggered by hopes that lawmakers would strike a cross-party agreement to block a No-Deal Brexit.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, was up less than 0.1% at 98.257.

Elsewhere, EUR/CHF remained well offered as the backdrop of the global slowdown forces the unwinding of carry trades and raises demand for haven currencies. Analysts note that sight deposits in the Swiss banking system have been rising at an accelerating pace over the last four weeks, something they say strongly suggests intervention by the Swiss National Bank to slow the franc’s rise. At 1.0854 to the euro, it has risen nearly 10% in the last 16 months, most of that appreciation coming in the last four months.

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Canadian Dollar Price Forecast: USD/CAD Rise at Risk of Failing

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USDCAD TECHNICAL HIGHLIGHTS:

  • USDCAD rise marked by grinding price action, may fail
  • May fail, but still need to respect channel in the meantime
  • Specific levels and lines to watch in the days ahead

USDCAD RISE MARKED BY GRINDING PRICE ACTION, MAY FAIL

The U.S. Dollar has been rallying against the Canadian Dollar since last month, but the rise in USDCAD hasn’t been particularly strong and has slowed even further in recent sessions. Sluggish price action suggests a break to the downside could soon be in the works.

But before jumping the gun on shorts, the near-term upward technical structure still remains in place and needs to be snapped before sellers can start to gain the upper hand. Watch for a break of the lower parallel and a lower-low to unfold under last week’s low at 13184 (4-hr chart). Should this happen then a larger decline could be in store.

The initial target on a breakdown clocks in at the 2012 trend-line and July low (just above 13000), which should be in near confluence at the time price would arrive (daily chart). A decline to that point would be a very important test. Not only is it a long-term trend-line, but a failure to hold could lead to a sharp sell-off similar to 2017 as the grind higher since that year fully gives way to selling (weekly chart).

On the top-side, if the USDCAD can continue to maintain the channel, or at the least maintain its higher-high, higher-low form, then the next major obstacle beyond 13344 is the trend-line running down off the 2016 peak.

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Forex - Dollar Hovering Near 2-Week Highs, Sterling Edges Up

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The U.S. dollar was hovering near two-week highs against a currency basket on Monday as U.S. Treasury yields bounced back from recent lows amid hopes that major economies will seek to prop up slowing growth with fresh stimulus.

The U.S. dollar index, against a basket of six major currencies was at 98.05 by 03:01 AM ET (07:01 GMT), not far from the two-week high of 98.20 reached on Friday.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 1.57%, having pulled away from a three-year trough of 1.47% marked last week in the wake of global slowdown fears.

Falling yields last week caused the two-year/10-year Treasury curve to invert for the first since 2007, a phenomenon widely regarded as a recession signal that puts the Federal Reserve interest rate deliberations into focus.

"This week's main event is the Jackson Hole symposium and Fed Chairman (Jerome) Powell's speech," said Junichi Ishikawa, senior FX strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo.

Powell will deliver a speech on Friday at an annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

"What Powell has to say is in focus as the discrepancy remains between what he said on interest rates and what the markets have come to expect the Fed will do," Ishikawa said.

Powell said after the Fed lowered rates in July that the easing was not the start of a series of cuts. But market expectations for the Fed to cut rates by another 25 basis points at the next policy meeting in September have increased.

The euro was steady at 1.1092 while the British pound edged up 0.15% to 1.2166.

The dollar was little changed against the yen at 106.37.

The Chinese yuan was slightly lower after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was not ready yet to make a trade with China.

Traders were also cautious ahead of the debut of China's new benchmark lending rate on Tuesday, which was announced at the weekend.

The People’s Bank of China on Saturday unveiled interest rate reforms to help lower borrowing costs for companies and support slowing growth, which has been hit by the trade war with the U.S.

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Forex - USD Flat; Trump Wants Hong Kong Problems Solved Before Making Trade Deal

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The U.S. dollar was flat on Monday in Asia as traders remained cautious ahead of Fed minutes due later this week.

The U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies was largely unchanged at 98.072 by 12:37 AM ET (04:37 GMT).

All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve this week as traders await fresh insights on how the central bank may respond to growing fears of a recession after the U.S. Treasury yield inverted last week. 

The Fed will publish the minutes of its July meeting on Wednesday, while Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech on Friday. 

Meanwhile, the USD/CNY pair slipped 0.1% to 7.0446. The People’s Bank of China sets the yuan’s reference rate at 7.0365 today, versus 7.0312 on Friday. 


Developments on the Sino-U.S. trade front were in focus. U.S. President Donald Trump insisted their trade war with China did no harm to the U.S. and that the economy is “doing tremendously well.”

“Our consumers are rich, I gave a tremendous tax cut, and they’re loaded up with money,” Trump said on Sunday. The president also reiterated that he is not ready to make a trade deal with China, hinting that he wants to see Beijing deal with the ongoing protests in Hong Kong first. 

“I would like to see Hong Kong worked out in a very humanitarian fashion,” Trump said. “I think it would be very good for the trade deal.”

Tech giant Huawei was also under the spotlight today as U.S. President Donald Trump said he does not want to do business with the company “at all because it is a national security threat.”

Tech giant Huawei was also under the spotlight today as U.S. President Donald Trump said he does not want to do business with the company “at all because it is a national security threat.”

The Wall Street Journal and Reuters previously reported that the U.S. was preparing to extend a licence that would allow Huawei to buy parts from U.S. companies for 90 days. The current agreement will end today.
“We’ll see what happens. I’m making a decision tomorrow,” Trump said.

The USD/JPY pair was unchanged at 106.36. The safe-haven yen was under pressure earlier today on expectations that policymakers would unleash new stimulus amid slowing global economies.

On Saturday, the People’s Bank of China said it would improve the mechanism used to establish the loan prime rate so it could “use market-based reform methods to help lower real lending rates The AUD/USD pair inched up 0.1% to 0.6783, while the NZD/USD pair slipped 0.1%.

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Forex - Dollar Steady; Euro Recovers from Italy Shock; U.K. GDP Eyed

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The dollar was mixed within relatively narrow ranges Friday at the start of European trading, after the Chinese yuan defied some weak factory gate inflation data to end the week on a stable note.

In Europe, the euro recovered most of its Thursday losses after the eruption of the latest political crisis in Italy, where Matteo Salvini, the head of the right-wing populist Lega party, called for new elections in a move to cement his power. The reaction was more violent in the bond and stock markets, where Italian assets sold off dramatically.

By 3:30 AM ET (0730 GMT), the euro was at $1.1188, up 0.2% from overnight lows. It was relatively unmoved by data for French industrial production in June, which fell by a greater-than-expected 2.3%, consistent with the dismal pattern in neighboring Germany.

The British pound remained under pressure ahead of second-quarter gross domestic product figures, which are due at 0830 GMT. Prime Minister Boris Johnson was reported on Thursday to be planning a general election in early November, days after the country’s scheduled departure from the EU.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, was effectively unchanged at 97.403

The latest rant by President Donald Trump against the strength of the dollar and the Federal Reserve via Twitter on Thursday has had no lasting effect on the market, beyond reminding participants of the risk of intervention to depress the dollar.

“A currency war has not erupted – at least, not yet. But the danger is real,” said ING analyst Benjamin Cohen. “Relations between the world’s two largest economies could go from bad to much worse.”

Cohen noted that the Trump administration’s labeling of China as a currency manipulator may lead China to respond in kind to save face, through measures such as a ban on the export of rare earth elements vital for high-tech manufacturing.

Figures released earlier Friday showed China’s producer price inflation index turning negative for the first time in three years, stoking fears that it will ‘export deflation’ to the rest of the world as it did between 2012 and 2016.

The yuan, however, stayed well within the range it had traded in this week. On the mainland it fell by less than 0.1% to 7.0503 to the dollar, while in the less regulated offshore market, it rose fractionally to 7.0757. The discount to the People’s Bank of China’s fixing narrowed as the central bank pegged the yuan at a new 11-year low of 7.0136.

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EUR/GBP approaches 2019 highs near 0.9250

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  • EUR/GBP moves closer to YTD tops, trades around 0.9250/55.
  • UK advanced Q2 GDP disappointed estimates today.
  • UK’s M.Gove suggested a bank holiday on November 1.

EUR/GBP is now picking up extra upside traction and moves at shouting distance from yesterday’s 2019 highs in the 0.9250/60 band.

EUR/GBP bid after poor GDP figures

The Sterling is not only suffering from the rising uncertainty around Brexitand the clear possibility of a ‘no deal’ outcome, but it is also deriving extra weakness from miserable prints from advanced Q2 GDP figures released today.

In fact, the UK economy is now seen contracting 0.2% QoQ during the April-June period and it is expected to grow at an annualized 1.2%, both prints coming in noticeably below forecasts.

Further poor UK data saw Business Investment expected to contract at a quarterly 0.5% in Q2 and Manufacturing Production contracting at a monthly 0.2% during June. On the brighter side, Industrial Production contracted less than expected (0.1% MoM) and the trade deficit shrunk to £7.01 billion also in June.

On the Brexit front, preparations for a ‘no deal’ scenario stay on the rise, as M.Gove suggested earlier today a bank holiday on November 1 in order to mitigate the potential consequences to the banking system of the ‘hard’ UK-EU divorce.

What to look for around GBP

The outlook on the British Pound looks increasingly fragile pari passu with rising odds for a Brexit ‘no deal’ on October 31. In the meantime, the Irish backstop remains the exclusive obstacle for the resumption of talks between London and Brussels, although the subject appears relegated in light of preparations for the worst-case scenario. Back to the UK economy, poor flash Q2 GDP figures published today added to the already gloomy panorama from UK fundamentals, keeping the sour prospect for the economy and the currency unchanged. At last week’s BoE event, the central bank kept the monetary conditions unchanged, although it refuses to factor in a ‘no deal’ scenario in its projections. The BoE still sees a ‘soft Brexit’ outcome and reiterated that rates are seen increasing gradually in order to bring inflation to the bank’s target.

EUR/GBP key levels

The cross is advancing 0.47% at 0.9255 and faces the next up barrier at 0.9265 (2019 high Aug.8) followed by 0.9306 (2018 high Aug.29) and finally 0.9411 (monthly high Oct. 2009). On the flip side, a breach of 0.9088 (low Jul.31) would open the door to 0.9074 (21-day SMA) and then 0.9051 (high Jul.17).

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