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Weak German Industrial Production Leaves Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) Exchange Rate Flat

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Pound Sterling Euro (GBP/EUR) Exchange Rate Muted as German Industrial Production Stumbles

The Pound Sterling Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate remained largely flat on Friday, giving up some previous losses. The pairing is currently trading at around €1.1830.

The single currency remained under pressure as data revealed the slump in German factory output could drag on the wider economy.Industrial production in the bloc’s largest economy disappointed at the start of the fourth quarter. Month-on-month, production plummeted by -1.7% after September’s fall of -0.6%.

‘Today’s data suggests that the German economy is continuing to flirt with stagnation and contraction in the final quarter of the year.

‘Looking ahead, both soft and hard indicators bode ill for industrial activity in the months ahead […] Trade conflicts, global uncertainty and disruption in the automotive industry have put the entire German industry in a headlock, from which it is hard to escape.’

Sterling (GBP) Edges Lower After Three-Day Rally

On Friday, after a three-day rally, the Pound edged lower against a handful of currencies.

While the currency edged lower at the end of the week, GBP was still headed for its best week since mid-October.

The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate hit a two-and-a-half year high on Thursday as Brexit optimism sparked a rally.

This week opinion polls have revealed support for the Conservatives has grown, increasing the likelihood the party will win an outright majority in next week’s election.

If Boris Johnson’s party secures a majority it will allow the PM to take the UK out of the EU by the January deadline.

‘It’s a small move and no fundamental change [in terms of what opinion polls show].

���From a risk-reward perspective most people are too optimistic but if you look at option markets you can see some people positioning for Sterling weakness.’

Markets remained optimistic that a Tory win would see more than three years of Brexit uncertainty come to an end.

However, even if the Conservatives win a majority, some analysts have argued that any further GBP gains will be limited.

Pound Euro Outlook: Will Election Optimism Buoy GBP?

Looking ahead to next week, the Pound (GBP) could edge higher against the Euro (EUR) if there are further polls suggesting the Conservatives will win Thursday’s election.

If markets continue to remain optimistic that Boris Johnson will secure a majority, Sterling sentiment will increase.

Meanwhile, the single currency could slide if Germany’s trade balance disappoints, and October’s exports slump.

If both imports and exports fall in October, the Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchanger rate could edge higher.


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Gold Prices Fall as Uncertainty Over Sino-U.S. Trade Progress Continues

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 Prices of the safe-haven gold fell on Friday in Asia as traders continued to monitor Sino-U.S. trade news.


The U.S. Gold Futures fell 0.4% to $1,477.45 by 1:42 AM ET (05:42 GMT).

On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump said trade talks were "moving right along", pushing global equities higher.

Uncertainties over a deal remained, as the president’s comments this week sent mixed signals regarding the trade talk progress.

Trump said overnight that negotiations with China are going "very well” overnight, just one day after he dented hopes for a trade deal by saying that an agreement to end the trade dispute may have to be delayed until after the American presidential election in November 2020.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told reporters that negotiations between Washington and Beijing were progressing, without a deadline for conclusion.

On the data front, the latest U.S. job report due later in the day is expected to generate some attention.

Gold traders are also awaiting the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve meeting...


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U.S. dollar Unchanged Ahead of Job Report

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The U.S. dollar was unchanged on Friday in Asia as traders awaited the release of the latest U.S. job report, which is due at 8:30 AM ET (13:30 GMT).

The U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies was unchanged at 97.380 by 1:30 AM ET (05:30 GMT).

Analysts tracked by Investing.com expect the job report to show the economy added 186,000 jobs in November, up from 128,000 jobs in October and 155,00 jobs in November 2018. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 3.6%, unchanged from October and down slightly from December 2018.

Traders also kept an eye out for the latest development on the Sino-U.S. trade front as U.S. President Donald Trump said "something could happen" on whether the Washington will impose new tariffs on Chinese goods starting Dec. 15.

Trump said on Thursday that negotiations with China are going "very well," just one day after he said an agreement to end the trade dispute may have to be delayed until after the American presidential election in November 2020.

The USD/CNY pair traded 0.1% lower to 7.0417.

The EUR/USD pair was little changed at 1.1102 as data on Thursday showed that German factory orders unexpectedly declined in October.

The GBP/USD pair was also near flat at 1.3156. Reports this week suggested that U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson could win a majority at next week's election, paving the way for Britain to leave the European Union on Jan. 31.

The USD/JPY pair slipped 0.1% to 108.68.

Meanwhile, the AUD/USD pair and the NZD/USD pair both gained 0.2%.

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Yen Inches Up, Dollar Flat as Trump Signs Hong Kong Bill

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Prices of the safe-haven rose, while the U.S. dollar stayed near flat on Thursday in Asia amid worries of rising Sino-U.S. tensions.

The USD/JPY pair inched down 0.1% to 109.45 by 1:20 AM ET (05:20 GMT). Overnight, U.S. President Donald Trump signed two bills that supports Hong Kong protestors into law, potentially complicating trade talks progress with Beijing.

In response to the U.S. move, China's foreign ministry said it resolutely opposed the law and threatened to take firm counter-measures, calling any attempts to interfere in Hong Kong are “doomed to fail.”

Chinese and Hong Kong stocks fell today following the news, while the yen traded modestly higher.

Meanwhile, data showed Japan’s retail sales plunged 14.4% in October from a month earlier, which was more than the expected 10.4% decline.

"The yen is being bought because of the news about Trump signing the Hong Kong bill," said Yukio Ishizuki, foreign exchange strategist at Daiwa Securities, in a Reuters report.

"Algorithmic trading could push the yen up further, but the dollar's losses will be limited because we've had positive U.S. economic data, which has lifted sentiment."

The U.S. Dollar Index last traded at 98.248, little changed from yesterday’s close.

The Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product increased at a 2.1% annualized rate, compared to 1.9% in the first reading. In a separate report, durable goods gained 0.6% after falling 1.4% in the prior month.

The AUD/USD pair slipped 0.1%, while the NZD/USD pair inched up 0.1%.

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Forex - Dollar Holding Steady Amid Encouraging Signs on Trade

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The U.S. dollar was holding steady against the Japanese yen on Tuesday amid encouraging signs that the U.S. and China will soon agree an interim deal to halt their trade war.

Market sentiment was boosted by reports that China's Vice Premier and chief trade negotiator Liu He held a phone call with his U.S. counterparts and that both sides reached consensus on how to move forward in their dispute.

That came after the Chinese state-backed Global Times newspaper on its Twitter feed on Monday the two countries are very close to a "phase one" trade deal, discounting "negative" media reports.

The dollar initially rose to two-week highs of 109.19 against the yen, before settling back to 108.9 by 04:04 AM ET (09:04 GMT), unchanged for the day. It sat at 98.19 against a basket of currencies, just below a one-week high.

"The broad trend is the markets are looking for a deal because trade has been the biggest factor weighing on global growth and holding back confidence," said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney.

The euro was little changed against the greenback at 1.1014, holding above the one-week low of 1.1003 reached on Monday.

The British pound was lower, down 0.2% at 1.2871 after an opinion poll in the U.K. showed that the opposition Labor Party has narrowed the governing Conservatives lead ahead of a Dec. 12 election, fueling uncertainty over Brexit.

Investors were looking ahead to U.S. trade data, house price figures and consumer confidence data later in the trading day, but overall, currency trading is slowing down ahead of U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.


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Forex - Dollar Falls after Fed Rate Cut, APEC Summit Cancellation

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The dollar fell against a currency basket on Thursday after the third Federal Reserve rate cut this year, as investors took indications of a potential pause in the easing cycle with a pinch of salt.

In lowering its key overnight lending rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a target range of between 1.50% and 1.75% the U.S. central bank dropped a previous reference in its policy statement that it "will act as appropriate" to sustain the economic expansion - language that was considered a sign for future cuts.

The lack of a clear indication from the Fed that it is done with easing for now was seen as less hawkish than expected, sending the dollar lower.

"The new, slightly shorter, statement tries to keep their options open and puts them back into a data-dependent mode, but circumstances could mean that they have less optionality than they think," said Tim Foster, portfolio manager at Fidelity International in London.

The U.S. dollar index was down 0.3% at 97.11 by 04:33 AM ET (08:33 GMT), its lowest level in a week.

The euro was up 0.14% to 1.1164, while the greenback last traded at 108.61 yen, 0.2% lower on the day.

The dollar was pressured lower against the safe-haven yen by the news that Chile has withdrawn as host of an APEC summit in November where the U.S. and China had been expected to take major steps towards resolving their protracted trade war.

Hopes that the world's largest economies would soon agree on a partial deal has boosted risk appetite this week.

“The fact that Chile has cancelled the mid-November APEC Summit should not be a deal breaker for the U.S. and China to reach a truce," said Tai Hui, Asia chief market strategist at JPMogan Asset Management in Hong Kong.

"If the two sides were genuinely willing to reach an interim deal before mid-December, when the next scheduled hike in tariff on Chinese exports is due to take place, they will find a venue to get the deal done."

The Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy steady on Thursday but introduced new forward guidance to more clearly signal the future chance of a rate cut, underlining its concern over global economic risks.

The British pound pushed higher after Prime Minister Boris Johnson won parliamentary approval on Wednesday to hold a general election



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Forex - U.S. Dollar Slips After Fed Policy Decision

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The U.S. dollar slipped on Thursday in Asia after the Federal Reserve slashed its benchmark funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 1.5% to 1.75% as expected, but altered language in its post-meeting statements and indicated that it may pause rate cuts from here.

The Fed removed a key clause that said the Fed was committed to “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.”

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a news conference that central bank officials “see the current stance of monetary policy as likely to remain appropriate.”

“We see the current stance of policy as likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with our outlook.”

The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies was down 0.3% to 97.127 by 1:10 AM ET (05:10 GMT).

Trade tensions between China and the U.S. remained uncertain after Chile said it is canceling the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit next month due to ongoing protests. U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping were expected to meet on the sidelines and possibly sign phase one of a trade deal.

The GBP/USD pair gained 0.2% to 1.2927 after the U.K. Parliament voted this week to hold an early general election on Dec. 12.

The USD/JPY pair slipped 0.2% to 108.66. As expected, the Bank of Japan maintained its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and a pledge to guide 10-year government bond yields around 0%.

The AUD/USD pair and the NZD/USD pair jumped 0.4% and 0.6%.


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Forex - Pound Gives Up Some Gains; U.K., EU Inch Closer to Brexit Deal

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The British pound gave back some gains on Wednesday in Asia after gaining overnight. A Bloomberg reported that the U.K. and European Union are close to agreeing on a legal draft of a Brexit deal.

The GBP/USD pair was down 0.2% to 1.2755 by 12:18 AM ET (04:18 GMT).

The pound spiked yesterday after European Michel Barnier said a draft legal text was being drawn up, and that an agreement “is still possible this week.”

“Our team(s) are working hard, and work has just started now today, this work has been intense over the weekend and yesterday, because even if the agreement will be difficult, more and more difficult, to be frank, it is still possible this week,” Barnier told reporters in Luxembourg on Tuesday morning.

He added that “any agreement must work for everyone,” saying it is “high time to turn good intentions into a legal text.”

The deal however is dependent on Prime Minister Boris Johnson getting support from the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party, which is uncertain. The two sides are racing to reach a deal before the Oct. 31 deadline, but remain optimistic that an agreement will be made by the end of Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index last was little changed at 98.042.

Tensions between the U.S. and China flared up again after the U.S. House passed four measures, including the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act”, on Tuesday in unanimous voice votes.

A similar bill is in front of the Senate.Beijing has threatened to retaliate if Congress passes a bill.

The USD/CNY pair gained 0.2% to 7.0964.

On the data front, the U.S. retail sales data are set to be released later in the day and are forecast to increase for a seventh straight month.

China will release third-quarter GDP, September industrial production and retail sales data on Friday.

The AUD/USD pair lost 0.3% to 0.6731. The USD/JPY pair dropped 0.2% to 108.63.


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Forex - Yuan Trades Lower Amid Renewed Trade Concerns

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 The Chinese yuan traded lower against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday in Asia after a Bloomberg report sparked fresh concerns on the Sino-U.S. trade talk progress.

Risk appetite improved late last week after the U.S. and China announced a “roadmap to a phase 1 agreement” which included the suspension of a tariff increase planned for this week and a commitment from China to buy more U.S. agricultural product.

But the Chinese yuan gave up some of its earlier gains today as Beijing reportedly said it wanted more talks before agreeing to the deal, suggesting that not all the details are nailed down.

China now wants to hold more negotiations this month before agreeing to signing the deal, a Bloomberg report said, citing people familiar with the matter.

The USD/CNY pair gained 0.2% to 7.0726 by 1:00 AM ET (05:00 GMT)

“We will carefully remind you that such a “promise” is worth nothing at all, and currently it looks more likely that running for president on an anti-Chinese agenda is better/smarter (for re-election purposes) than doing the opposite,” Martin Enlund and his analyst team at Nordea Markets wrote in a weekly preview.

On the data front, China reported on Tuesday that its producer price index fell by 1.2% year-on-year. It marked the steepest factory price decline July 2016, but was in line with expectations.

The consumer price index (CPI) increased 3% year-on-year in September, compared with the expectation of a 2.9% gain. Pork prices in China jumped 69.3% from a year ago. It is the major driver in the overall increase in CPI.

The country also reported weaker-than-expected trade data this week, which showed the sharpest drop in imports since 2016.

The U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies last traded at 98.137, down 0.03%.

The USD/JPY pair inched down 0.1% to 108.32.

The AUD/USD pair and the NZD/USD pair were both little changed.

The GBP/USD pair rose 0.2% to 1.2629. Brexit developments remained in focus after the European Union showed some cool reaction to the U.K.’s proposals on resolving the Irish border-related elements of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement.

The EU’s top negotiator Michel Barnier reportedly told EU diplomats at the weekend that the proposals represented an “untested” risk that were not acceptable, according to The Guardian.


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Forex - Pound Falls Despite Renewed Brexit Hopes; Dollar Rises Amid Trade Progress

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The British pound fell against the U.S. dollar on Monday in Asia despite renewed Brexit hopes. The greenback inched up amid positive trade progress with China.

The GBP/USD pair lost 0.3% to 1.2614 1:25 AM ET (05:25 GMT). The pound rose on Friday amid signs of a possible agreement on the Irish border problem.

Reports suggested that the U.K. had conceded that the province of Northern Ireland would remain in the EU customs area immediately after Brexit – a move that would satisfy EU concerns about the integrity of its border.

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he thought there was a way forward for a Brexit deal with the European Union, adding that “there is work to be done.”

Meanwhile, the yuan gained today after the U.S. paused its plan to impose more tariffs on Chinese goods this week. The USD/CNY pair lost 0.5% to 7.0538.

On the data front, China’s U.S. dollar-denominated exports were down 3.2% in September, slightly more than expected. Imports also fell more than analysts’ forecast, customs data showed on Monday.

That left China with a trade surplus of $39.65 billion in September, compared with a $34.84 billion surplus in August.

Analysts previously expected exports to decline by 3%, while imports were expected to drop by 5.2%.

China will release third-quarter GDP, September industrial production and retail sales data on Friday.

The U.S. dollar index inched up 0.1% to 98.123. According to the partial trade deal Washington and Beijing reached late last week, Beijing will make large agricultural purchases worth as much as $50 billion and take steps on intellectual property, financial services and the yuan.

The USD/JPY pair inched down 0.1% to 108.31.

The AUD/USD pair and the NZD/USD pair lost 0.1% and 0.3% respectively.

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