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Forex - Pound Gives Up Some Gains; U.K., EU Inch Closer to Brexit Deal

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The British pound gave back some gains on Wednesday in Asia after gaining overnight. A Bloomberg reported that the U.K. and European Union are close to agreeing on a legal draft of a Brexit deal.

The GBP/USD pair was down 0.2% to 1.2755 by 12:18 AM ET (04:18 GMT).

The pound spiked yesterday after European Michel Barnier said a draft legal text was being drawn up, and that an agreement “is still possible this week.”

“Our team(s) are working hard, and work has just started now today, this work has been intense over the weekend and yesterday, because even if the agreement will be difficult, more and more difficult, to be frank, it is still possible this week,” Barnier told reporters in Luxembourg on Tuesday morning.

He added that “any agreement must work for everyone,” saying it is “high time to turn good intentions into a legal text.”

The deal however is dependent on Prime Minister Boris Johnson getting support from the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party, which is uncertain. The two sides are racing to reach a deal before the Oct. 31 deadline, but remain optimistic that an agreement will be made by the end of Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index last was little changed at 98.042.

Tensions between the U.S. and China flared up again after the U.S. House passed four measures, including the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act”, on Tuesday in unanimous voice votes.

A similar bill is in front of the Senate.Beijing has threatened to retaliate if Congress passes a bill.

The USD/CNY pair gained 0.2% to 7.0964.

On the data front, the U.S. retail sales data are set to be released later in the day and are forecast to increase for a seventh straight month.

China will release third-quarter GDP, September industrial production and retail sales data on Friday.

The AUD/USD pair lost 0.3% to 0.6731. The USD/JPY pair dropped 0.2% to 108.63.


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Forex - Yuan Trades Lower Amid Renewed Trade Concerns

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 The Chinese yuan traded lower against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday in Asia after a Bloomberg report sparked fresh concerns on the Sino-U.S. trade talk progress.

Risk appetite improved late last week after the U.S. and China announced a “roadmap to a phase 1 agreement” which included the suspension of a tariff increase planned for this week and a commitment from China to buy more U.S. agricultural product.

But the Chinese yuan gave up some of its earlier gains today as Beijing reportedly said it wanted more talks before agreeing to the deal, suggesting that not all the details are nailed down.

China now wants to hold more negotiations this month before agreeing to signing the deal, a Bloomberg report said, citing people familiar with the matter.

The USD/CNY pair gained 0.2% to 7.0726 by 1:00 AM ET (05:00 GMT)

“We will carefully remind you that such a “promise” is worth nothing at all, and currently it looks more likely that running for president on an anti-Chinese agenda is better/smarter (for re-election purposes) than doing the opposite,” Martin Enlund and his analyst team at Nordea Markets wrote in a weekly preview.

On the data front, China reported on Tuesday that its producer price index fell by 1.2% year-on-year. It marked the steepest factory price decline July 2016, but was in line with expectations.

The consumer price index (CPI) increased 3% year-on-year in September, compared with the expectation of a 2.9% gain. Pork prices in China jumped 69.3% from a year ago. It is the major driver in the overall increase in CPI.

The country also reported weaker-than-expected trade data this week, which showed the sharpest drop in imports since 2016.

The U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies last traded at 98.137, down 0.03%.

The USD/JPY pair inched down 0.1% to 108.32.

The AUD/USD pair and the NZD/USD pair were both little changed.

The GBP/USD pair rose 0.2% to 1.2629. Brexit developments remained in focus after the European Union showed some cool reaction to the U.K.’s proposals on resolving the Irish border-related elements of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement.

The EU’s top negotiator Michel Barnier reportedly told EU diplomats at the weekend that the proposals represented an “untested” risk that were not acceptable, according to The Guardian.


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Forex - Pound Falls Despite Renewed Brexit Hopes; Dollar Rises Amid Trade Progress

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The British pound fell against the U.S. dollar on Monday in Asia despite renewed Brexit hopes. The greenback inched up amid positive trade progress with China.

The GBP/USD pair lost 0.3% to 1.2614 1:25 AM ET (05:25 GMT). The pound rose on Friday amid signs of a possible agreement on the Irish border problem.

Reports suggested that the U.K. had conceded that the province of Northern Ireland would remain in the EU customs area immediately after Brexit – a move that would satisfy EU concerns about the integrity of its border.

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he thought there was a way forward for a Brexit deal with the European Union, adding that “there is work to be done.”

Meanwhile, the yuan gained today after the U.S. paused its plan to impose more tariffs on Chinese goods this week. The USD/CNY pair lost 0.5% to 7.0538.

On the data front, China’s U.S. dollar-denominated exports were down 3.2% in September, slightly more than expected. Imports also fell more than analysts’ forecast, customs data showed on Monday.

That left China with a trade surplus of $39.65 billion in September, compared with a $34.84 billion surplus in August.

Analysts previously expected exports to decline by 3%, while imports were expected to drop by 5.2%.

China will release third-quarter GDP, September industrial production and retail sales data on Friday.

The U.S. dollar index inched up 0.1% to 98.123. According to the partial trade deal Washington and Beijing reached late last week, Beijing will make large agricultural purchases worth as much as $50 billion and take steps on intellectual property, financial services and the yuan.

The USD/JPY pair inched down 0.1% to 108.31.

The AUD/USD pair and the NZD/USD pair lost 0.1% and 0.3% respectively.

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Dollar holds near two-and-a-half-month yen high on U.S.-China partial deal, pound stands tall

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 The dollar held near a 2 1/2-month high against the yen on Monday after Washington and Beijing announced progress toward a trade deal, while sterling hovered near a three-month peak on hopes for an orderly British exit from the European Union.

On Friday, the dollar strengthened against the safe-haven yen to as much as 108.63 yen , its highest level since August 1, before U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States and China had reached a 'Phase 1' trade deal.

It pared those gains after Trump announced the agreement, covering agriculture, currency and some aspects of intellectual property protections.

In early Asian trade on Monday, the dollar inched down to 108.36 yen against the yen, while the euro stood at $1.1025 (EUR=) versus the greenback, off Friday's three-week high of $1.10625.

Tokyo's market is closed for a public holiday on Monday, so trading volumes are likely to lighter than usual.

The trade deal "looks more symbolic than substantial, and might be better described as simply an 'interim trade war truce,'" said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank.

"This Phase 1 agreement, if inked, does little to immediately brighten the outlook for global trade and growth. While it shouldn't prevent the Fed from agreeing to cut rates by another quarter point on Oct. 30, it doesn't provide a firm pretext for significant or sustained U.S. dollar depreciation."

The deal represents the biggest step between the United States and China in a 15-month trade dispute. Friday's announcement did not include many details and Trump said it could take up to five weeks to get a pact written. He acknowledged the agreement could fall apart during that period, though he expressed confidence that it would not.

STERLING

The British pound surged on Friday to as high as $1.2708 , its strongest level since July 1, and a five-month peak of 86.955 pence per euro (EURGBP=D4), on optimism about orderly Brexit.

The pound was last down 0.38% at $1.2600 in Asia.

The EU agreed on Friday to hold another round of intense negotiations with London in a bid to break the deadlock and secure a deal before the Oct. 31 deadline.

EU negotiator Michel Barnier and his British counterpart Stephen Barclay earlier held what both sides called a "constructive" meeting in Brussels. The British and Irish prime ministers said on Thursday they had found "a pathway" to a possible deal, and by Friday some officials were expressing guarded optimism.



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Forex - Dollar Surges on Australian Rate Cut, Weak PMIs

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The dollar rose to within touching distance of a new two-year high in early trading on Tuesday, surging against the Australian and New Zealand dollars after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its key cash rate to an all-time low of 0.75%.

The dollar rose almost a cent against the Aussie after the RBA’s move, which came after the economy grew at its slowest rate in a decade in the second quarter, another spillover from the U.S.-China trade war that has damped Chinese demand for Australian commodities. It also hit a new 10-year high against the kiwi.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six developed currencies, rose to as high as 99.21, close to the two-year high of 99.33 that it hit last month. That was when it hit a 10-year high against the Aussie – a level that looks set to be tested soon.

“Further price movements may depend on Governor (Philip) Lowe's remarks at a dinner in Melbourne later today, in which he may choose to finesse expectations for future rate movements or provide more clarity on the focus on consumer spending, as opposed to the recent focus on the labour market,” Robert Carnell, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at ING, said in a note to clients.

The dollar also rose against the yen after a worse than expected Tankan survey, while it inched higher against the euro and sterling as crunch time approached in the Brexit drama. The Daily Telegraph reported Tuesday that Prime Minister Boris Johnson will send his detailed plans for avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland to the EU on Tuesday after his speech to the Conservative Party’s annual conference.

According to the Irish state broadcaster RTE, the plans involve a string of customs clearance centers set a few miles back from the border. That effectively creates a hard border in all but name, and thus effectively breach the Good Friday Agreement that the U.K. and EU have both promised to respect.

By 3:30 AM ET, the euro was at $1.0890, up 10 ticks from a new two-year low that it hit at the start of trading. The pound was back below $1.2300, while both the Swiss franc and the Swedish krona also came under pressure after sharp drops in their national purchasing managers indexes indicated contraction in both countries’ manufacturing sectors.

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RPT-POLL-RBI to pick up slack as India stimulus measures to fall short -economists

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Recent stimulus measures announced by the Indian government will be insufficient to boost economic growth significantly, said a majority of economists in a  poll who predicted two more interest rate cuts this year, in October and December.

To revive the ailing economy, the government in September announced a steep cut in the corporate tax rate - to 22% from 30% - triggering the biggest intraday gain in Indian stocks in more than a decade.

That along with other measures, including a rollback of a higher surcharge on foreign portfolio investment - introduced in the budget in July - led international investors to become net buyers of Indian assets in September.

But nearly 60% of around 50 economists who answered an additional question said those stimulus measures were unlikely to have a notable impact on the economy.

"While the cut in corporate taxes is sharp, its actual impact on growth is uncertain. Given that the current problem is of weak demand, a demand augmenting measure would have been more productive.

Although the economy is expected to have recovered last quarter from the sharp slowdown in the three months prior, economists downgraded their growth outlook for this fiscal year and next from three months ago.

The Sept. 24-30 poll of over 50 economists predicted gross domestic product growth to average 6.1% this fiscal year, the lowest since polling began for the period in April last year.

If realised, that would mark the slowest pace of growth in seven years.

The economy was then expected to expand 6.8% next fiscal year, a downgrade from 7.2% predicted in the July poll.

That weak outlook was driven by lack of clarity on when and how the U.S.-China trade war will end, which has already hurt business sentiment, manufacturing activity and the global economy.

But some economists argued recent measures announced by the Indian government, along with monetary policy easing, would likely boost Asia's third-largest economy.

The Reserve Bank of India has already eased policy by a cumulative 110 basis points this year.

It is now expected to cut its repo rate INREPO=ECI by 25 basis points on Friday, making it the fifth meeting in a row of easing, and is then predicted to follow that up by with another 15 basis points slice in December, taking the key rate to 5.0%.

But the RBI is then forecast to keep rates unchanged until 2021 at least.

"It looks like the authorities - both the government and the central bank - are firing up all cylinders to provide stimulus to the economy...with stimulus announced so far should start to revive growth going forward," said Prakash Sakpal, Asia economist at ING.

When asked how many more rate cuts it would take to boost growth significantly, nearly 45% of economists said cumulative rate cuts up to 50 basis points will be needed.

Eleven said between 50 and 100 basis points would do the trick, while two said over a percentage point.

The outlook for further policy easing was also backed by subdued inflation, which is not expected to breach the central bank's medium-term target of 4% until the fourth quarter of 2020.

"With inflation remaining under control, monetary stimulus in combination with the recent fiscal measures are likely to be growth supportive," said Shashank Mendiratta, economist at IBM (NYSE:IBM).

But not everyone agreed with that view.

Nearly 30% of respondents said boosting economic growth significantly is beyond the RBI's immediate control.

"Not only monetary policy but also short-term measures that the government has taken so far, are used to sugar-coat the wrong policy trajectory from a structural point of view," said Hugo Erken, head of international economics at Rabobank.

"Because what India really needs is a large-scale reform package on several fronts."

A weak growth outlook, ongoing concerns about the U.S.-China trade war and the prospect of further RBI easing are all expected to hurt the Indian rupee INR= in coming months.

After rallying as much as 3% against the dollar in September, the rupee is forecast to reverse most of those gains to trade at 72.50 per dollar in a year, compared to 70.70 on Monday.

"Despite the fact that both monetary and fiscal levers are now being deployed to prop up growth, a material recovery is still elusive," added ANZ's Sen.

"We therefore see limited scope for the current (rupee) rally to last unless demand sharply recovers. In addition, global risks including worsening in trade uncertainties or an oil price surge could add to rupee volatility."

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FOREX-Dollar index hits two-year high, Aussie falls after RBA cut

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The U.S. dollar rose to its highest in more than two years versus a basket of currencies on Tuesday before data that is forecast to show the U.S. manufacturing sector returned to growth, which would ease concern about the impact of the trade war with China.

The euro teetered near its lowest in more than two years against the greenback before data expected to show European inflation has remained tepid, suggesting euro zone policy will remain accommodative for some time.

The Australian dollar edged lower after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates and expressed concern about job growth, while the New Zealand dollar hit a new four-year low as weak business sentiment continued to weigh on the kiwi.

A host of economic data and comments from central bankers this week will set the tone for major currencies as traders try to determine how far policymakers will go to bolster growth.

"Economic data can be supportive of the dollar, and the Federal Reserve's comments are not as dovish as some people think," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.

"An RBA rate cut and the risk of a stagnant European economy both should be positive for the greenback."

The dollar index .DXY against a basket of six major currencies rose 0.10% to 99.479, after briefly touching the highest since May 12, 2017.

The dollar rose 0.17% to 108.26 yen JPY=EBS , close to its strongest level in almost two weeks.

The yen remained weak after the Bank of Japan's tankan showed business confidence in the third quarter slid to its lowest in six years. was subdued in Asian time because China's financial markets are closed until Monday for public holidays. Financial markets in Hong Kong were also closed on Tuesday for a holiday.

The Institute for Supply Management's measure of U.S. manufacturing activity later on Tuesday is forecast to show a return to expansion in September, but just barely.

In August, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in three years due to the U.S.-China trade war.

Several Fed policymakers are scheduled to speak this week, but traders said they will focus most on comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday for hints about the direction of U.S. monetary policy.

The Fed has cut interest rates twice this year, but there are signs that it is reluctant to ease policy further because the jobs market remains strong.

The euro fell 0.09% to $1.0889 EUR=EBS , close to its lowest since May 12, 2017.

Data due on Tuesday are forecast to show consumer prices in the euro zone rose an annual 1.0% in September, unchanged from the previous month and well below the European Central Bank's target.

Annual inflation in Germany, Europe's largest economy, slowed to the lowest in almost three years, data on Monday showed. ECB unleashed a new round of monetary easing measures on Sept. 12, but there is growing concern that the central bank is reaching the limits of what it can achieve and the burden will fall to eurozone governments to boost fiscal spending.

The Australian dollar briefly rose after the RBA cut its cash rate to a record low of 0.75%, as expected. However, the Aussie surrendered those gains to trade down 0.21% at $0.6742 AUD=D3 .

The RBA said forward-looking indicators suggest employment growth is likely to slow, which could bolster expectations that it will cut rates again by early next year. New Zealand dollar fell to a new four-year low of $0.6238 NZD=D3 . The kiwi has taken a hit as weakening business confidence bolstered expectations for monetary easing.

German inflation slows unexpectedly in September

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Dollar stands tall as investors seek shelter

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The dollar found broad support on Monday as global political uncertainty and fears over a widening of the Sino-U.S trade war kept investors in safe harbours ahead of a slew of global economic indicators this week.

The greenback was steady against most major currencies. It held firm on the Japanese yen at 108.93 per dollar and sterling at $1.2287, while easing very slightly against the euro to $1.0932.

It gained against riskier, trade-exposed currencies such as the Australian dollar and the Chinese yuan. The biggest loser was the New Zealand dollar, which fell half a percentage point as business confidence hit its weakest in more than 11 years.

"Risk-off sentiment is prevailing in the market," said Anthony Doyle, global cross-asset specialist at fund manager Fidelity International in Sydney, citing U.S. political turmoil and Brexit as looming worries, besides the trade war.

"There's a lot of uncertainty out there," he said.

In Asian hours, traders mostly shrugged off news that the Trump administration was considering de-listing Chinese companies from U.S. stock markets after the reports were hosed down by Treasury officials.

Elsewhere, factory activity surveys in China suggested there were some signs of improvement this month, though analysts believe the gains cannot be sustained and forecast further economic weakness.

In Australia, forecasts for a rate cut on Tuesday firmed with gathering economic gloom. Markets are pricing a better than 75% chance the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce its cash rate for a third time this year.

German inflation, British economic growth and U.S. manufacturing indicators are all due later on Monday, with U.S. employment figures at the end of the week. Anything short of expectations poses a risk to fragile sentiment.

Against a basket of currencies (DXY) the dollar edged higher to 99.165.

The New Zealand dollar dropped as far as $0.6257, very close to a four-year low, as a survey showed sour business sentiment and made a case for a rate cut.

The Australian dollar also drifted lower to $0.6756 on expectations of monetary easing.

With markets largely baking in another rate cut, further moves in the Aussie will likely be driven by the RBA's tone and outlook, said Chris Weston, head of research at brokerage Pepperstone Group in Melbourne.

Traders are expecting a lull in trade-war headlines as China takes a week-long holiday from Tuesday, which marks the 70th anniversary of the People's Republic of China.

China's yuan held steady at 7.1219 per dollar.

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U.S. Dollar Falls After Posting Biggest Gains in Three Months on Trade Hopes

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The U.S. dollar gained on Thursday in Asia on renewed Sino-U.S. trade hopes.

The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies were down 0.2% to 98.502 by 12:20 AM ET (04:20 GMT).

Sino-U.S. trade hopes reignited after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested an agreement with China might come sooner than anyone thinks, although he didn't offer many specifics.

Just on Tuesday, Trump accused China of unfair trade practices in a speech to the General Assembly at the United Nations in New York.

"It's a pretty decent move really," said Nick Twidale, co-founder of Sydney-based trade finance provider Xchainge, in a Reuters report.

"Markets shrug these things off very, very quickly and we move on to the next stuff. As it moves on, it's going to be interesting, but we have to go back to the fundamentals and fundamentals are going to push the dollar higher over time."

The U.S. dollar recorded its sharpest daily gain in three months following the news, before giving up some of its gains today in Asian trade.

The GBP/USD pair gained 0.2% to 1.2374 today after falling overnight. Prospect of early U.K. elections with just five weeks to go until the Brexit deadline was cited as a headwind for the pound.

On Wednesday, U.K. Attorney-General Geoffrey Cox said a motion for a general election will be brought to parliament “shortly.”

He made the remarks a day after the Supreme Court’s ruling that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s five week suspension of parliament in the run-up to Brexit was unlawful.

The AUD/USD pair inched up 0.2%, while the NZD/USD pair climbed 0.6% on continued upward momentum after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday but said there is scope if it sees the need for it to boost economic growth.

The USD/JPY pair inched down 0.1%.

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Forex - Dollar Holds Steady on Trade Hopes, But Growth Fears Weigh

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The U.S. dollar remained broadly supported on Tuesday after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin confirmed U.S.-China trade talks will resume next month, but concerns about slowing global growth continued to weigh on market sentiment.

Against a basket of currencies the dollar edged up to 98.28 by 2:37 AM ET (6:37GMT).

"The U.S. dollar is rising by default rather than anything U.S.-specific," said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney, adding that volumes were low as traders mostly kept to the sidelines waiting for news.

"Trade is never far from the markets' radar, but I think currency markets are increasingly expecting (U.S-China tensions) to be protracted, I think optimism has dissipated."

Mnuchin said Monday that trade discussions were scheduled in two weeks and that he and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer would meet Chinese Vice Premier Liu He.

The dollar was little changed against the yen at 107.53, while the euro was trading at 1.0992, not far from a 28-month low of 1.0926 touched earlier this month.

The single currency fell 0.2% on Monday after data showing that a German manufacturing recession deepened unexpectedly in September and growth in the service sector lost momentum, adding to worries over the outlook for the wider Eurozone.

The British pound was hovering near one-week lows at 1.2435 ahead of a U.K. Supreme Court ruling on whether Prime Minister Boris Johnson acted unlawfully when he suspended parliament just weeks before Brexit.

The outcome of the case could have implications for Johnson’s plans to pull the U.K. out of the European Union on Oct. 31.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars were steady ahead of a speech by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Phil Lowe, with the market expecting a dovish tone after weak jobs data last week underlined expectations for a rate cut.

Both currencies sat near three-week lows, with the Aussie at 0.6774 and the kiwi at 0.6295.

"We think Lowe will provide a strong signal that the RBA is ready to cut rates again, endorsing our view for a 25bp cut in October," said Tapas Strickland, a director of economics and markets at National Australia Bank in Sydney.


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