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Oil market set for record surplus amid coronavirus-led demand slump

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The US banking giant, Goldman Sachs, said in a recent note, the oil market would be swooning in record supply by April amid coronavirus led slump in demand and a bigger-than-expected surge in low-cost output.

 Key quotes

“Oil market could see a record surplus of about 6 million barrels per day by April.

The high-cost producer response at our second quarter 2020 $30/bbl Brent forecast will not be sufficiently fast to offset the record large inventory builds set to occur in coming months.

The jump in inventories could also force some inland high-cost producers to shut production, since storage logistics may be stretched.

The demand loss is due to the fast-spreading coronavirus outbreak at about 4.5 million bpd.

The accumulation of oil inventories over the next six months could be similar to a build up over 18 months in 2014-16.

Global demand growth, on the other hand, would see a reduction of about 310,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 and comfortably offset any fast supply response from high cost producers, especially with the shale output now forecast to drop by 900,000 bpd in the first quarter of 2021.

Finally, any potential re-escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East would not prevent the bearish pressure of quickly accumulating inventories unless it led to a historically large outage.”


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USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, DOW JONES FUTURES SINK ON TRUMP NATION ADDRESS

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The anti-risk Japanese Yen gained as the sentiment-linked Australian Dollar declined alongside Dow Jones futures after U.S. President Donald Trump addressed the nation amid the coronavirus outbreak. Over the past 24 hours, Wall Street entered bearmarket territory with global growth increasingly at risk. The markets were thus looking for details of fiscal support with monetary policy already at its limits worldwide.

Mr Trump announced that the country is suspending all travel from Europe over the next 30 days, excluding the United Kingdom. He then turned to Congress, asking it to take legislative action on relief such as increasing funding by $50b to SBA (Small Business Administration). Another major policy is calling on the House for immediate payroll tax relief. He also instructed the Treasury to defer some tax payments, offering about $200b in liquidity.

Following his speech, S&P 500 futures extended their rout, dropping in excess of 2% during Asia trading hours. This is as the Nikkei 225 declined over 2.7% as the ASX 200 plummeted almost 5%. European futures are also pointing notably lower. With that in mind, risk aversion may be in the cards for the remainder of the day as investors flock into Treasuries. Sentiment-linked crude oil prices are aiming lower.



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FOREX-Dollar skids as Trump's virus response disappoints

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The dollar slid in another seismic shift to price in more U.S. interest rate cuts on Thursday, as President Donald Trump sapped market confidence with a coronavirus plan light on details.

The greenback dropped as far as 1% to 103.32 yen JPY= , fell as much as 0.6% to $1.1333 against the euro EUR= and lost 0.6% to the safe-haven Swiss franc CHF= .

Riskier currencies were punished as the fearful mood sent the Australian dollar AUD= down 0.6% and the South Korean won skidding 1% KRW= , and losing even more ground to the rising yen.

Trump announced on Wednesday a ban on travellers from 26 European countries entering the United States for a month.

He unveiled economic steps to counter the virus but his address from the Oval Office was light on medical measures beyond assurances that "the virus has no chance against us".

"The market was looking for more," said Moh Siong Sim, currency strategist at the Bank of Singapore.

"A travel ban is part of the solution, but the more important parts are still missing. They are really the public health measures: Paid sick leave, free testing, free treatment," he said.

"The market is right now looking for perhaps more action from the Fed, given the disappointment from the White House."

Indeed, futures markets reacted swiftly. They are now pricing in the U.S. Federal Reserve moving the lower end of its benchmark funding band to zero when it meets next week. 0#FF:

"The deflationary shock that we had assumed would trigger a U.S. entry into the zero-yield world is turning out to be a combo of trade war, oil price war and COVID-19 virus," J.P. Morgan's long-term strategists Jan Loeys and Shiny Kundu said in a note.

"(There are) close to even odds now of an official U.S. recession this year."

Trump's address came with markets already in turmoil amid a string of increasingly dire news on the coronavirus.

The longest bull run in U.S. stock market history has ended, with market talk that selling to cover margin calls was keeping gold and bonds from rallying. .N

The World Health Organization overnight described the outbreak as a pandemic. Italy, where deaths rose by nearly a third overnight, has shuttered all shops except supermarkets, food stores and pharmacies. yen was last up 0.8% on the greenback and soaring against other currencies, with gains around 1% on the Australian AUDJPY= and New Zealand dollars NZDJPY= and 2% on the won KRWJPY= .

Australia on Wednesday announced an $11.4 billion stimulus package including wage subsidies and cash payments to small businesses - though the Aussie AUD=D3 slid further with the glum mood and growing recession fears. AUD/

Investors are now waiting to see how aggressively the European Central Bank acts at its meeting later on Thursday.

Traders expect a cut to the main deposit rate by 10 basis points. But it is no certainty since rates are already at a record-low -0.5% and further cuts could hurt bank margins and so squeeze lending. press conference is due at 1230 GMT in Frankfurt, after the monetary policy meeting. The euro steadied around $1.1296 in the meantime.

On Wednesday, the Bank of England slashed interest rates by 0.5 percentage point, though there are doubts the outsized move will be enough to fight the virus' impact.

The British pound last stood at $1.2803 GBP=D4 , near this week's low.

"There's a sense to which currency markets are going to reward the currencies of countries that are seen to be using whatever space they've got for easier fiscal and monetary policy," said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at NAB.

"(But) even if the ECB wheel out a cocktail of lower rates, stepped up QE, more long-term ... in itself, that's not going to inspire a huge amount of confidence that the eurozone economy is going to escape recession. The hope would be that we'll have something more tangible on the fiscal side sooner rather than later."


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Rupee Drops Toward Record Low as Virus Scare Worsens Growth Woes

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The Indian rupee slid to near a record low, beset by concerns over the fallout of the coronavirus outbreak and the impact of the seizure of Yes Bank (NS:YESB) by authorities.

The rupee weakened as much as 1% to 74.3387 per dollar on Thursday to near its record low of 74.4825, a level last seen in October 2018. Sovereign bonds declined.

The rupee has been Asia’s worst-performing currency this month after the seizure of Yes Bank, India’s fourth-largest private lender, by the central bank added to fears fueled by the spread of coronavirus cases in the country. The government late Wednesday suspended most visas in a bid to halt the spread of the virus as the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a pandemic.

India’s action came as U.S. President Donald Trump suspended all travel from Europe, excluding the U.K., and the WHO urged governments to step up containment efforts as the number of worldwide cases topped 124,000 and deaths exceeded 4,600. India currently has 60 confirmed cases.

Traders have been citing attempts by the Reserve Bank of India to smoothen the rupee’s slide in the past few sessions. The central bank is sitting on record forex reserves of $482 billion, thanks to its continued purchases in the currency markets over the past few years.

The plunge in the global crude oil price remains a bright spot for the nation’s struggling economy. The price of crude crashed more than 30% on Monday after the disintegration of the OPEC+ alliance triggered an all-out price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia that is likely to have sweeping political and economic consequences.


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FOREX-Dollar resumes decline; sterling rebounds after BoE rate cut

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 The U.S. dollar resumed its descent against the Japanese yen and Swiss franc on Wednesday as fears over the spreading coronavirus pushed investors into safe havens, while the British pound recovered after Bank of England unexpectedly cut interest rates.

Central banks and governments around the world are scrambling to limit the economic damage of the coronavirus outbreak, which has sent stock markets into a tailspin as investors head for the safety of government bonds.

Sterling initially fell as much as 0.4% against the dollar and 1.2% against the euro after the BoE's cut its benchmark rate by 50 basis points, to 0.25%. the pound rebounded as the move - including actions to support bank borrowing - reassured some investors. The pound rose to $1.2955 GBP=D3 , up 0.6% on the day.

Against the euro, the pound was last up 0.1% at 87.38 pence per euro. EURGBP=D3

Britain's finance minister, Rishi Sunak, is expected to direct further firepower at the British economy in his first budget later on Wednesday, expected at 1230 GMT.

The dollar was down particularly sharply against the safe-haven Japanese yen and Swiss franc. It lost 0.5% to 105.11 yen JPY= after earlier falling more than a full yen from Tuesday's high of 105.915.

The U.S. currency had fallen as low as 101.18 on Monday. While Japan may already be in recession, its currency usually rises at times of market stress because of the country's current account surplus and its net creditor status.

The Swiss franc gained 0.4% to 0.93595 franc per dollar CHF= . The euro also rose 0.4% to $1.13175 EUR= .

The dollar had jumped on Tuesday as investors hoped global monetary policymakers would offer further stimulus to offset trade and travel disruptions. But lack of clarity on what Washington will do has kept many investors on guard.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he would ask Congress for a payroll tax cut and other "very major" stimulus moves, but the details remain unclear. is too early to say the market sentiment has turned positive. Yesterday's rebound in the dollar and in risk assets is a type of a rebound you often see in a downtrend," said Shinji Ishimaru, senior currency analyst at MUFG Bank.

"In addition to economic measures, the focus will be on how much the U.S. can contain the infections to keep the economy going. That is a very big unknown," he said.

Money markets are fully pricing in a further 10-basis-point cut by the European Central Bank when it meets on Thursday. =ECBWATCH

The BoE rate cut follows similar moves by U.S. and Canadian central banks and put more pressure on the ECB to act, although it has limited room with rates already negative.

"The pound sold off initially on the aggressive move but the statement shows that their (BoE) action is co-ordinated with the Treasury and the measures include a package for lending," Jane Foley, senior currency strategist at Rabobank, said.

"Altogether the statement suggests lots of co-ordination. This is reassuring and should help limit the impact on the economy and that could also help support the pound."


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EM ASIA FX-Trade in a range as doubts persist over coronavirus response measures

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Indonesia's rupiah fell on Wednesday after the country reported its first coronavirus-related death, while other Asian currencies traded in a thin range due to the uncertainty over proposed government measures to limit the economic impact of the epidemic.

The market has been hoping for concrete details of U.S. President Donald Trump's promise for "very major" stimulus moves, but the lack of an announcement has left investors hanging. could set the direction of risk appetite, and thus Asian currencies, in the short-term. Markets are trading day by day, assessing the severity and spread of COVID-19 globally," said Chang Wei Liang, an FX strategist at Mizuho Bank.

The dollar fell more than 1% against the safe-haven yen JPY= FRX/ .

In Indonesia, the central bank governor said the outlook for economic growth this year could be lowered when it holds its policy meeting next week. rupiah IDR=ID dropped 0.3% after the country confirmed its first death due to the virus.

The government had also pledged fiscal support to help stimulate the economy, but economists questioned how much additional spending could be provided, given weak revenue collection so far this year. is imperative that policy-makers collaborate to roll out coordinated measures that are emphatic; leaving no doubts about the constructive solidarity of the global response," Mizuho bank analysts said in a client note.

Financial markets took a pounding on Monday after Saudi Arabia and Russia's price war triggered an oil price crash and deepened the gash caused by the coronavirus epidemic to the global economy.

Elsewhere, the South Korean won KRW=KFTC was little changed against the dollar. The country reported a jump in cases on Wednesday, compared with a day earlier where it saw a decline in the rate of new infections. Philippine peso PHP= and Thai baht THB=TH also fell.

The Indian rupee INR=IN , emerging from a holiday on Tuesday, advanced 0.4% after losing close to 1% over the last three days. The Singapore dollar SGD= and Chinese yuan CNY=CFXS also gained.

The ringgit MYR=MY gained 0.3%. The country's newly appointed prime minister said his cabinet will form an economic action council to tackle serious issues affecting the country's economy such as the drop in global oil prices and the outbreak. VS U.S. DOLLAR AS AT 0635 GMT

Currency

Latest bid Previous day Pct Move Japan yen

104.500

105.63

+1.08 Sing dlr

1.389

1.3914

+0.17 Taiwan dlr

30.068

30.036

-0.11 Korean won

1193.000

1193.2

+0.02 Baht

31.510

31.49

-0.06 Peso

50.523

50.45

-0.14 Rupiah

14380.000 14340

-0.28 Rupee

73.800

74.11

+0.42 Ringgit

4.230

4.242

+0.28 Yuan

6.946

6.9558

+0.14

Change so far in 2020

Currency

Latest bid End 2019

Pct Move Japan yen

104.500

108.61

+3.93 Sing dlr

1.389

1.3444

-3.22 Taiwan dlr

30.068

30.106

+0.13 Korean won

1193.000

1156.40

-3.07 Baht

31.510

29.91

-5.08 Peso

50.523

50.65

+0.25 Rupiah

14380.000 13880

-3.48 Rupee

73.800

71.38

-3.28 Ringgit

4.230

4.0890

-3.33 Yuan

6.946

6.9632

+0.25



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EM ASIA FX-Currencies weaken as oil price crash dampens risk sentiment

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Oil prices plunge about 30%

* Malaysian ringgit drops to mark worst day in two-weeks

Yuan expected to outperform the basket in 2020 - HSBC analyst (Adds text, updates prices)

By Anushka Trivedi

March 9 (Reuters) - Asian currencies weakened on Monday as investors sold off risky assets after a plunge in oil prices exacerbated concerns over economic fallout stemming from the coronavirus epidemic.

Saudi Arabia's decision to slash average selling prices and ramp up crude production after Russia backed away from making output cuts sent shockwaves through the markets and is likely to weigh on regional currencies, since the majority of them are net oil importers. O/R

Meanwhile, the number of coronavirus cases globally surged past 107,000 as the outbreak spread to more countries. Italy took drastic measures and sealed off large parts of the prosperous north of the country, including financial capital Milan. investors sought safer bets and pushed the Japanese yen JPY= up 3% against the dollar to a three-year high and the euro EUR= to a two-year peak. FRX/

U.S. 30-year treasury yields US30YT=RR sank below 1% and 10-year yields US10YT=RR under 0.5%, eroding the dollar's chief attraction as the markets upped their bets for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to mitigate the economic damage.

The Fed's move is expected to spill over to Asia, with Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analysts expecting that "the majority of emerging market central banks will also cut rates further, taking global monetary policy rates to a new all-time low."

Malaysia, and oil importing nation Indonesia, saw their currencies lose nearly 1% against the dollar, while their respective stock markets also hit multi-year lows. .SO

The rupiah IDR= was on track to slide for a third straight session and Indonesia's 10-year government bond yield ID10YT=RR rose slightly. Malaysian ringgit MYR= dropped 0.9% and was on its way to mark a worst session in two-weeks. The country's new prime minister is due to announce his new cabinet later on Monday, a week after he was appointed amid a political tussle. South Korean won KRW=KFTC weakened as much as 1.3% to 1,207.20 against the dollar, prompting its finance ministry to issue a verbal warning against disorderly currency market movement. the world's third-biggest oil importer, saw its currency INR=IN decline 0.3%, while the Singapore dollar SGD= gave up about 0.5%.

The Chinese yuan CNY=CFXS pared early gains to trade 0.1% lower after reporting a larger than expected plunge in exports over the weekend. analysts at HSBC see the yuan benefiting from a dip in oil prices as nearly a quarter of its imports are commodity-related.

China's monetary policy will be closely watched, which has so far lagged the Fed's, and resulted in a record yield differential that is likely to support foreign inflows to its bond market, HSBC added.

"We believe the yuan will outperform the basket this year."

CURRENCIES VS U.S. DOLLAR AS AT 0518 GMT Currency

Latest bid Previous day Pct

Move Japan yen

102.560

105.3

+2.67 Sing dlr

1.385

1.3781

-0.46 Taiwan dlr

30.077

30.040

-0.12 Korean won

1205.300

1192.3

-1.08 Baht

31.530

31.41

-0.38 Peso

50.625

50.54

-0.17 Rupiah

14350.000 14220

-0.91 Rupee

73.975

73.73

-0.34 Ringgit

4.208

-0.90 Yuan

6.943

6.9342

-0.12

Change so far in 2020

Currency

Latest bid End 2019

Move Japan yen

102.560

108.61

+5.90 Sing dlr

1.385

1.3444

-2.90 Taiwan dlr

30.077

30.106

+0.10 Korean won

1205.300

1156.40

-4.06 Baht

31.530

29.91

-5.14 Peso

50.625

50.65

+0.05 Rupiah

14350.000 13880

-3.28 Rupee

73.975

71.38

-3.51 Ringgit

4.208

4.0890

-2.83 Yuan

6.943

6.9632

+0.29


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FOREX-Yen and euro soar as investors stampede to safety amid coronavirus worries

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The safe-haven yen soared, the euro jumped after U.S. treasury yields dropped and export sensitive currencies fell to multi-year lows on Monday as coronavirus fears routed global markets.

The yen JPY= jumped more than 3% to a day high of 101.69 per dollar, its highest in three years and the sharpest daily jump since mid-2016.

The euro EUR= rose more than 1.4% to an almost two-year peak of $1.1452. The Australian AUD=D3 and New Zealand NZD=D3 dollars both lost more than 2%, with the Aussie hitting a fresh 11-year low.

Against the yen, the Aussie AUDJPY= and Kiwi NZDJPY= lost more than 5%.

"It is totally wild," said Shafali Sachdev, head of FX Asia at BNP Paribas (PA:BNPP) Wealth Management in Singapore. "Stops are being triggered at every level," she said.

"This is not a train I want to be getting in front of, and how long it continues and where it goes from here is going to depend on how the situation evolves," she added, saying further stockmarket falls could drive even bigger moves in funding currencies.

The number of people infected with the coronavirus has topped 107,000 across the world as the outbreak reached more countries and caused more economic disruption. panic was exacerbated by a collapse in oil prices, which dropped more than 20% after the world's top exporter, Saudi Arabia, vowed to cut prices and raise its production significantly. O/R

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries US10YT=RR went under 0.5% for the first time, amid a rush for the safety of bonds.

That undermines the dollar by all but sinking one of the most popular carry trades globally - borrowing at negative rates in euro or yen to buy U.S. assets.

The yen's jump drew concern in Japan, with a senior finance official telling reporters that authorities were closely watching trade. the oil price fall made for withering drops in oil exporters' currencies.

The Mexican peso MXN= fell as far as 6% against the dollar. The Canadian dollar CAD=D3 fell more than 2% to 1.3690 per dollar, its lowest since 2017.

The Norwegian krone NOK=D3 shed 3% to hit a  record trough and the Russian rouble RUB= plunged by 5% to its lowest in nearly four years.


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FOREX-Dollar and commodity currencies trampled by oil, virus double shock

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Forex - Japanese Yen Fall Amid Rising Asian Stocks

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The Japanese yen fell against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday in Asia, while the Chinese yuan inched up as traders continued to focus on developments on the coronavirus front.

The USD/JPY pair gained 0.2% to 110.04 by 1:30 AM ET (05:30 GMT) as the Japanese yen lost some safe-haven appeal due to the uptick in Asian stocks today.

The USD/CNY pair rose 0.1% to 7.0012. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate 7.0012 at versus Tuesday's fix at 6.9826.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies inched up 0.1% to 99.370.

The Hubei province reported 132 deaths for Feb. 18. So far, China has 74,186 confirmed cases of the virus, according to government data.

While the new cases in Hubei fell for a second day, the World Health Organization cautioned that "every scenario is still on the table" in terms of the epidemic's evolution, and that it was too earlier to know if the epidemic was being contained.

"The market is trying to model itself on coronavirus and it's struggling really hard to understand how that goes and that's pushing capital in to the U.S.," said Chris Weston, head of research at Melbourne brokerage Pepperstone, in a Reuters report.

"The U.S. remains that least-dirty T-shirt, the best house in a fairly shabby-looking neighborhood. As a destination for capital, it's still the light that you look for."

The EUR/USD pair steadied at 1.0793 after falling to near a two-year low yesterday as investor sentiment in Germany deteriorated more than expected in February, adding to concerns about the ongoing weakness in the euro zone.

The Japanese yen fell against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday in Asia, while the Chinese yuan inched up as traders continued to focus on developments on the coronavirus front.

The USD/JPY pair gained 0.2% to 110.04 by 1:30 AM ET (05:30 GMT) as the Japanese yen lost some safe-haven appeal due to the uptick in Asian stocks today.

The USD/CNY pair rose 0.1% to 7.0012. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate 7.0012 at versus Tuesday's fix at 6.9826.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies inched up 0.1% to 99.370.

The Hubei province reported 132 deaths for Feb. 18. So far, China has 74,186 confirmed cases of the virus, according to government data.

While the new cases in Hubei fell for a second day, the World Health Organization cautioned that "every scenario is still on the table" in terms of the epidemic's evolution, and that it was too earlier to know if the epidemic was being contained.

"The market is trying to model itself on coronavirus and it's struggling really hard to understand how that goes and that's pushing capital in to the U.S.," said Chris Weston, head of research at Melbourne brokerage Pepperstone, in a Reuters report.

"The U.S. remains that least-dirty T-shirt, the best house in a fairly shabby-looking neighborhood. As a destination for capital, it's still the light that you look for."

The EUR/USD pair steadied at 1.0793 after falling to near a two-year low yesterday as investor sentiment in Germany deteriorated more than expected in February, adding to concerns about the ongoing weakness in the euro zone.

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