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U.S jobs data supports dollar as fragile risk-on mood holds

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 Encouraging U.S. economic data gave the dollar an edge over its peers on Friday, arresting a recent flight from the greenback while also supporting Asian currencies as investors toned down recent gloom over the global economy.

Separate surveys suggested the world's largest economy is in better shape than investors had feared. U.S. service sector activity accelerated in August and private employers boosted hiring beyond expectations.

It contributed to a broad risk-on shift in money, bond and stock markets stoked by news that China-U.S. trade talks would resume next month, and supported the dollar.

"Stronger than forecast employment, factory orders and productivity numbers contradicted the recent 'slowing U.S. economy' narrative," said Michael McCarthy, chief strategist at brokerage CMC Markets in Sydney.

The dollar recouped some losses against the Australian and New Zealand dollars and against a basket of currencies clambered off a one-week low to hold flat around 98.419.

Traders now await the government's monthly payrolls report due at 1230 GMT on Friday for the next snapshot on the labor market's health.

"Investors are now hoping they can take this week's positivity over the finishing line, so fingers crossed the August U.S. payroll report...doesn't throw a damp towel on the proceedings," said Stephen Innes, Asia Pacific  Market Strategist at AxiTrader.

Other factors supporting risk sentiment were a potential breakthrough in the Hong Kong political crisis and reduced chances of Britain crashing out of the European Union on Oct. 31 without a deal.

The pound rose to its highest level against the dollar in more than a month and held most of those gains to trade around $1.2326 in Asian hours.

That was in spite of more political chaos in Britain, as Prime Minister Boris Johnson's plan to kick off what is in effect an election and a Brexit campaign was overshadowed on Thursday when his younger brother quit the government.

The euro (EUR=EBS) was steady at $1.1031 at 0030 GMT. The yuan gained overnight and held in morning offshore trade around 7.1382 per dollar. The trade-exposed South Korean won hit a month high of 1,198.40 per dollar.

Sentiment has been skittish, however, since the Brexit project remains up in the air and previous progress on U.S.-China trade negotiations has failed in the past.

The yen, which was sold to a one-month low of 107.22 per dollar on Thursday, bounced a little to 106.98, a signal some caution remains.

"These moves may prove to be short term rather than the start of a fresh cycle," said Nick Twidale, director of Sydney-based brokerage XChainge.

"Both the major geo-political issues that seem to have turned over the last few days have a large degree of uncertainty associated with them over the medium, let alone long term," he said, referring to Brexit and U.S-China trade talks.

"We've seen a lot of activity on the frequent flyer accounts of both the Chinese and US trade negotiation teams before which has resulted in little in the way of progress."

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Canadian Dollar Technical Analysis Overview: USD/CAD, GBP/CAD, EUR/CAD

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CAD Analysis and Talking Points

  • USD/CAD | Momentum Shifts to the Downside, 50DMA Eyed
  • GBP/CAD | Bounce Fades, Brexit Keeps Cross Volatile
  • EUR/CAD | Key Fibonacci Support Breaks
  • USD/CAD | MOMENTUM SHIFTS TO THE DOWNSIDE, 50DMA EYED
  • USD/CAD saw its sharpest fall since January 30th as a neutral statement from the BoC had been perceived as hawkish relative to expectations, while oil prices had also surged over 4%. However, while momentum indicators may well be pointing to further downside, eyes are on whether trend signals confirm the recent shift in momentum. On the downside, support is situated at the 50DMA at 1.3188, in which a closing break below raises risk of a 1.3115 test (61.8% Fib of 1.2780-1.3660 rise). Looking ahead, market participants will be paying attention to comments from the BoC Deputy Governor at 1700BST, while external factors regarding key US data will also be in focus.

    USD/CAD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (May 2019 – Sep 2019)

    Canadian Dollar Technical Analysis Overview: USD/CAD, GBP/CAD, EUR/CAD

    GBP/CAD | BOUNCE FADES, BREXIT KEEPS CROSS VOLATILE

    Despite the recent bid in GBP/CAD, the 50DMA situated at 1.6230 has held firm, thus curbing the upside in the cross. That said, as will be the case with many GBP pairs, Brexit induced volatility is likely to cause sizeable swings. On the topside, key resistance resides at 1.6300-25, which has previously limited gains in the pair. Trend signals are relatively weak, emphasising the fact that the cross is lacking firm direction, as such, the cross may stay within a 1.60-1.63 range.

    GBP/CAD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Feb 2019 – Sep 2019)

    Canadian Dollar Technical Analysis Overview: USD/CAD, GBP/CAD, EUR/CAD

    EUR/CAD | KEY FIBONACCI SUPPORT BREAKS

    The downtrend continues for EUR/CAD, which trades at a fresh 2 year low. A neutral BoC vs a dovish ECB that is set to announce a new stimulus package next week keeps the outlook bearish, particularly with momentum indicators also bearishly aligned. The cross has now edged below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.3017-1.6150 rise, which in turn opens-up a move towards the 1.45 handle.

    EUR/CAD Price Chart: Weekly Time Frame (Jan 2015 – Sep 2019)

    Canadian Dollar Technical Analysis Overview: USD/CAD, GBP/CAD, EUR/CAD



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USD/IDR Flat After Negative Consumer Confidence Report

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A pile of mixed IDR banknotesThe Indonesian rupiah was flat versus the US dollar after the negative consumer confidence report.

The Bank Indonesia reported that the Consumer Confidence Index was at 123.1 in August. That was a decline from July’s 124.8. Still, the report said that the index was “in the optimistic zone”.

USD/IDR was flat at 14,160 as of 8:15 GMT today.

If you have any questions, comments, or opinions regarding the Indonesian Rupiah, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

Earlier News About the Indonesian Rupiah:

  • USD/IDR Flat After Bank Indonesia Cuts Interest Rates (2019-08-22)
  • Indonesian Rupiah Climbs vs. US Dollar As Crude Oil Prices Drop (2018-12-19)
  • Indonesian Rupiah Stable After Central Bank Raises Interest Rates (2018-08-15)
  • Bank Indonesia May Intervene to Support Falling Rupiah (2018-04-25)
  • Indonesian Rupiah Weakens on Fed Interest Rate Hike Bets (2018-04-23)
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Indian rupee unlikely to gain traction as investors stay shy: Reuters poll

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The Indian rupee will not regain ground lost against the dollar in the coming year, according to strategists polled by Reuters, who believe a recent rollback of a surcharge on foreign investments will have no impact on the currency.

After gaining about 2% following a sweeping victory in the general election by the incumbent government late in May, the rupee has lost nearly 6% since a July 5 budget when a surcharge on foreign investments was introduced.

That pushed international investors to turn net sellers after being net buyers until then from February.

Although those higher taxes were withdrawn last month, the move did not alleviate the rupee's weakness and about 60% of respondents did not expect it to have any impact for the remainder of the year.

The rupee fell to 72.40 per dollar on Tuesday, its weakest this year, still suffering from data last week that showed the economy grew at its slowest pace in over six years in the last quarter.

The Aug 29-Sept 4 Reuters poll of over 50 strategists predicted the currency will trade around 72 per dollar over the coming year.

While the median forecast showed the rupee will not retest Tuesday's low, the 12-month view was the most pessimistic in Reuters polls since December.

"Although the measures by the government to rollback the surcharge is a step in the right direction, the damage is already done, as foreign investors continue to withdraw from the Indian equity market," said Hugo Erken head of international economics at Rabobank, referring to its impact on the rupee.

"Given other factors which fuel a further risk-off sentiment - such as...weak GDP print of 5% for fiscal Q1 and further escalation of the China-U.S. trade war - we feel it is difficult to attract investors to make up for the losses in portfolio flows."

That weaker rupee view lines up with a separate Reuters positioning poll which showed short bets for the currency rose to the highest since November 2018 on growing concerns about the U.S.-China trade war.

Emerging market currencies, including the Indian rupee, have been hit hard by the intensifying trade war. China has allowed the yuan (CNY) to weaken further beyond 7 per dollar to help offset new tariffs imposed by the United States.

"USDINR continues to watch CNY movements and broader dollar bias, which at this juncture points toward further INR weakness owing to a weak global environment," noted Radhika Rao, economist at DBS in Singapore.

Slowing growth concerns pushed central banks across a group of 37 developing economies to deliver a net fourteen interest rate cuts last month - the largest since the financial crisis.

Of those, the Reserve Bank of India was one of the most aggressive. It has lowered interest rates several times this year and is expected to do so again.

However, over 75% of strategists in response to a separate question said expected RBI rate cuts would have no impact on the rupee or be negative. The remainder said easing would benefit the currency.

"Even after the 110 (basis points of) cuts, the impact on the rupee was felt more recently when a number of other factors emerged, including the slowdown in both domestic and global demand," said Kunal Kundu, India economist at Societe Generale(PA:SOGN), the most accurate forecaster for Asian currencies in 2018.

"That is why interest rates as a stand-alone factor will only have a marginal effect on the rupee."

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Canadian Dollar Price: USDCAD Trend Eyes Bank of Canada Rate Decision

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  • Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates unchanged at 1.75%.
  • USDCAD chart shows bears starting to take control.

Q3 2019 Forecasts and Top Trading Opportunities

THE CANADIAN DOLLAR SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK RESTS ON THE BANK OF CANADA (BOC)

Bank of Canada (BoC) governor Stephen Poloz is expected to announce that the overnight interest rate will remain unchanged at 1.75% when the central bank meets today. At the last meeting in July, the central bank noted that while the Canadian economy is returning to potential growth, ‘the outlook is clouded by persistent trade tensions’. Financial markets expect no rate change today but are pricing in a roughly 66% chance of a 0.25% interest rate cut at the October 30 meeting which will include the central bank’s latest monetary policy report.

Live Data Webinar: Bank of Canada Rate Decision

Since the last BoC announcement, trade tensions – especially between the US and China – have increased with both sides announcing additional trade tariffs. This backdrop has weighed on the price of oil, which in turn has put downward pressure on the Canadian dollar. The Canadian energy sector accounts for around 11% of nominal GDP and produced revenues of $14.1 billion in 2017.

The daily USDCAD chart shows that the rally that started in mid-July is running out of momentum and this move may continue if the central bank’s press announcement today is more dovish than expected. This week’s price action shows two bearish ‘shooting star’ candles with a long upper shadow and very little lower shadow. Today’s bearish candlestick is more likely due to US dollar weakness, but the chart may be pointing to a retrace back to the 1.3225 – 1.3245 area. The 200-day moving average at 1.3293 stands in the way of this move lower. The CCI indicator shows the pair moving out of overbought territory. To the upside, a break and close above 1.3350 should be watched, before Tuesday’s multi-week high at 1.3383 comes into view.

USDCAD DAILY PRICE CHART (JANUARY – SEPTEMBER 4, 2019)

Canadian Dollar Price: USDCAD Trend Eyes Bank of Canada Rate Decision

IG Client Sentiment data show that 34.0% of retail traders are net-long of USDCAD, a bullish contrarian indicator. However, recent daily and weekly positional changes suggest that USDCAD may soon move lower.

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FOREX-Dollar extends decline after disappointing factory data

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* Euro lifted away from 28-month lows

* Dollar weakness helps emerging market currencies

* Sterling gains on bid to stop no-deal Brexit

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019

The dollar extended its fall on Wednesday following disappointing manufacturing data, helping the euro to recover from more than two-year lows.

Sterling also rallied, recovering some of Tuesday's losses after the latest parliamentary attempt to stop a no-deal Brexit.

The dollar's pullback was prompted by manufacturing activity in the world's biggest economy contracting for the first time in three years last month, data from the Institute for Supply Management published on Tuesday showed. knocked the wind out of a previously rising greenback and spurred a further bond rally as investors increased bets on more Federal Reserve interest rate cuts before the end of 2019.

The dollar was last down 0.2% against a basket of major currencies, its index at 98.803 .DXY , easing from a more than two-year high hit on Tuesday.

"Yesterday's manufacturing survey was very gloomy and confirms that the U.S. is suffering from the global trade and manufacturing downturn, along with everyone else," said Kit Juckes, currency strategist at Societe Generale The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0992 EUR=EBS , pulling further away from $1.0926 - a 28-month low - touched on Tuesday before the weak U.S. data was published.

The European single currency was little moved by the final release of the euro zone Purchasing Managers Index composite survey, which came in slightly better than expected.

The safe-haven yen and Swiss franc fell as some calm returned to markets, helped by reports that Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam would on Wednesday announce the formal withdrawal of an extradition bill that triggered months of unrest. showing growth in China's service sector also boosted investor sentiment.

The yen was down 0.2% at 106.19 yen per dollar JPY=EBS . The Swiss franc dropped 0.3% versus the euro to 1.0858 francs EURCHF=EBS .

The dollar's weakness helped China's offshore yuan CNH=EBS pull away further from record lows plumbed earlier this week. The yuan was last up 0.3% at 7.1553 yuan per dollar.

Emerging market currencies were mostly up on the dollar weakness, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars also seized on the greenback's weakness to rise AUD=D3 NZD=D3 .

"The expectation that the Fed will come to the rescue has increased," said Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney.

"But it's not a capitulation on the dollar. It's just merely stopped the recent rise of the dollar."

The British pound, which on Tuesday fell below $1.20 and to its weakest in three-years, rose 0.5% to the day's high of $1.2157 GBP=D3 .

Against the euro it rallied 0.4% to 90.39 pence EURGBP=D3 .

Lawmakers who defeated Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government late on Tuesday are expected to introduce a bill in parliament seeking to stop Britain from leaving the European Union on Oct. 31 without transitional arrangements.

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EUR/USD has found support and may extend its recovery to 1.1073 – Confluence Detector

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EUR/USD has bounced off the new two-year lows after US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Manufacturing Index dropped below 50 and reflected a contraction in the critical sector. Can the world's most popular currency pair move extend its recovery?

The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that EUR/USD enjoys significant support at 1.0965, where we see a dense cluster including the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day, the Simple Moving Average 10-4h, the previous monthly low, the previous weekly low, the Bollinger Band 1h-Middle, the BB 1d-Lower, the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day, and the BB 15min-Lower. Looking up, some resistance awaits at 1.1016, where the Fibonacci 23.6% one-week meets the SMA 5-1d. 

Several junctures of resistance await on the way up, with the most significant one awaiting at 1.1073, which is the where we see the confluence of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week, the SMA 100-4h, and the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month.

Below 1.0965, the next support line is 1.0890, where the Pivot Point one-month Support 1 and the PP 1d-S3 converge.

Here is how it looks on the tool:

Here is how it looks on the tool:

EUR USD September 4 2019 technical confluence

Confluence Detector

The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies.

This tool assigns a certain amount of “weight” to each indicator, and this “weight” can influence adjacents price levels. These weightings mean that one price level without any indicator or moving average but under the influence of two “strongly weighted” levels accumulate more resistance than their neighbors. In these cases, the tool signals resistance in apparently empty areas.

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Forex - U.S. Dollar, Yen Little Changed as Sino-U.S. Trade Tensions Ease

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The U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen were largely flat on Friday in Asia as tensions between China and the U.S. seemingly eased somewhat.

The USD/JPY pair last traded at 106.46 by 11:00 AM ET (03:00 GMT), down 0.03%.

Gao Feng, spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry, said China is willing to negotiate with the U.S. on trade issues “with calm attitude,” adding that Beijing will not retaliate against U.S.’s latest tariff moves for now.

His comments sent global stocks higher and was cited as headwinds for the safe-haven yen, but political crisis in Hong Kong and Middle East supported the Japanese currency.

"There are so many geopolitical risk factors now. Not to mention U.S.-China trade conflicts, we have Brexit, Hong Kong and the Middle East. So we should expect the yen to jump from time to time,U.S. President Donald Trump said some discussions were taking place on Thursday, ahead of a looming deadline for additional U.S. tariffs on Sept. 1.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index was also little changed at 98.477.

Data showed overnight that U.S. second-quarter economic growth slowed to 2%, in line with expectations.

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in September to support the economy in the face of trade risk.

After the release of the data, Trump once again criticized the Fed for not cutting rates enough.

The GBP/USD pair slipped 0.1% to 1.2183 as the looming prospect of a no-deal Brexit kept traders on edge. Prime Minister Boris Johnson decided earlier this week to suspend Britain's parliament for more than a month before Brexit.

The move will limit the time opponents have to derail a disorderly Brexit but also increases the chance that Johnson could face a vote of no-confidence in his government, and possibly an election.The AUD/USD pair was down 0.2% to 0.6710, while the NZD/USD pair traded 0.2% lower to 0.6292.

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FOREX-Yen firms as risk appetite fades; pound fragile

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The Japanese yen edged higher on Thursday, heading for its biggest monthly rise since May as risk appetite remained on the back foot with investors sceptical on the prospect of a trade-war breakthrough any time soon.

"Investors are still concerned about the trade war and there is little optimism we will see a substantial breakthrough in negotiations," said Esther Maria Reichelt, an FX strategist at Commerzbank (DE:CBKG).

U.S. President Donald Trump's administration on Wednesday made official its extra 5% tariff on $300 billion in Chinese imports and set collection dates of Sept. 1 and Dec. 15. the greenback JPY=EBS , the yen edged 0.2% higher at 105.83 yen. For the month, it is set to gain 2.5% against the dollar, putting it on track for its biggest monthly rise in three months.

"It's very difficult to take on any kind of major risk in this environment," said Chris Weston, head of research at forex brokerage Pepperstone Group, pointing to the inverted yield curve as an indicator of sentiment.Spreads between 10-year U.S. Treasury debt and comparable two-year bond yields inverted to minus 3 bps, its lowest since May 2007.

Sterling remained in the spotlight after Prime Minister Boris Johnson's plan to suspend parliament raised the odds of a no-deal Brexit. GBP/ The British currency GBP=D3 edged a quarter of percent lower at $1.2183, approaching a January 2017 low below $1.2015.

China's onshore spot yuan CNY=CFXS eased slightly to be weaker for an 11th straight session, although a firmer-than-expected central bank fixing helped stem deeper losses. Against a basket of currencies .DXY , the dollar was steady around 98.190.

Elsewhere, the kiwi NZD=D3 was off 0.3% at $0.6318, after touching its lowest since September 2015 at $0.6311.

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Yen rises as resurgent gloom drives bets to safe harbors

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 A risk-off mood bolstered the safe-haven yen on Thursday, with record lows on U.S 30-year Treasury yields holding back the dollar as investors turned bleak on the prospect of a trade-war breakthrough any time soon.

The yen firmed 0.3% by lunchtime in Asian trade to as high as 105.91 per dollar , after the cautious optimism seen in currency markets in the morning gave way to gloom.

The Japanese currency also gained against the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar , which hit a four-year low as business sentiment weakened.

The sterling was flat, nursing losses incurred on Wednesday when fears of a no-deal Brexit surged in response to British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's move to suspend parliament in a bid to limit debate ahead of the Oct. 31 Brexit deadline.

"It's very difficult to take on any kind of major risk in this environment," said Chris Weston, head of research at forex brokerage Pepperstone Group, pointing to the inverted yield curve as an indicator of sentiment.

"We've got a pretty clear idea of what our two "We've got a pretty clear idea of what our two big circuit breakers are - those being a genuine feel toward the Xi-Trump relations and the other one is the Fed getting ahead of the curve," he said on the phone from Melbourne.

"We just don't think any of those are going to be triggered any time soon...we've just been advocating just staying in those core, defensive FX positions for the moment."

China's onshore spot yuan eased slightly, to be weaker for an 11th straight session, although a firmer-than-expected central bank fixing helped stem deeper losses. Against a basket of currencies (DXY) the dollar was steady around 98.190.

Dominating investor concerns is the inverted U.S. Treasury yield curve, in which long-dated yields are lower that short-dated ones, commonly considered a sign of future recession.

Sentiment in the currency market is also likely to be weighed by the Sino-U.S. trade dispute, which remains far from unresolved.

The latest round of tit-for-tat trade-war tariff hikes takes effect on Sunday, with Washington set to levy an extra 5% tariff - announced by President Donald Trump on Twitter last week - on $300 billion in Chinese imports.Retailers across the U.S. warned on Wednesday of price hikes and braced for job losses as a result, while on Thursday Korea outlined its most aggressive spending plan in a decade to buttress its weakening economy.

Yields on 30-year Treasuries (US30YT=RR) and 10-year German bunds both hit a record low as investors scrambled for the safety of government debt.

"The biggest market impact of these new threats is the uncertainty," Hannah Anderson, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management said by email.

"This uncertainty is having the most damaging effect on markets; it constrains investment, slows growth, elevates volatility, and darkens the outlook for investors of all stripes."

The latest gloomy omen came from New Zealand, where ANZ Bank's closely-watched survey of business sentiment showed deepening weakness in both activity and confidence. That suggests aggressive cuts in interest rates are yet to gain any traction.The kiwi was off 0.3% at $0.6318, after touching its lowest since September 2015 at $0.6311.

The pound held steady at $1.2202 on Thursday and was last quoted at 90.82 pence per euro (EURGBP=D3).

The Chinese yuan was close to lows not seen since the global financial crisis, trading onshore at 7.1663 per dollar and offshore a little weaker at 7.1728 per dollar at 0400 GMT.

The yen hit a session high of 105.91 by 0402 GMT. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,542.00 per ounce, after hitting a six-year high on Monday.

The yen and gold are both considered safe-haven assets.

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