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Forex - New Zealand Dollar Down on Weak ANZ Business Confidence Indicator

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The New Zealand dollar dropped to near four-year lows against its U.S. counterpart after data showed the ANZ Business Confidence indicator slumped to -52.3 in August.

It was the weakest level since April 2008. The NZD/USD pair fell 0.4% to 0.6309 by 12:20 AM ET (04:20 GMT) following the report, lowest level since September 2015.

The Aussie dollar was also hit by the weak data. The AUD/USD pair slipped 0.1% to 0.6728.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index was little changed at 98.132.

In an interview with Bloomberg, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the U.S. does not intend to intervene in currency markets for now.

"Situations could change in the future but right now we are not contemplating an intervention,” 

Chinese negotiators will visit Washington for trade talks, but he declined to confirm whether a previously planned meeting in September would still take place.the governor of the People’s Bank of China, over what the U.S. has deemed manipulation of the yuan.

“We’ve had conversations with the IMF and directly with our counterparts in China, including the governor of the PBOC,” Mnuchin said. “We will have a separate dialog and discussion on currency as part of the trade discussion but separate from the trade discussion.”

An escalation in the trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies has roiled financial markets in recent days after both sides threatened to slap tariffs on each other's goods worth billions of dollars.

Separately, U.S. President Donald Trump continued to criticize the Federal Reserve for not being able to “keep up with the competition,” as he reiterated his stance that the central bank should lower rates.

The safe-haven yen rose today as stock markets traded mostly in the red. The USD/JPY pair was down 0.2% to 105.91.

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PRECIOUS-Gold holds near 6-year peak on slowdown fears, trade jitters

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* Silver hits highest level since April 2017

* Platinum scales near one-month high

* GRAPHIC-Gold in various currencies: http://tmsnrt.rs/1JxbO6Y

Aug 28 (Reuters) - Gold held close to a more than six-year high on Wednesday, after rising more than 1% in the previous session, as fears of a possible recession and the trade conflict between China and the United States drove investors to safe haven assets.

Spot gold XAU= was mostly unchanged at $1,542.71 per ounce, as of 1100 GMT. On Monday it touched $1,554.56, its highest since April 2013.

U.S. gold futures GCcv1 were steady at $1,551.90.

"There is some kind of consolidation at these price levels (around $1,550) and the market is assessing the next development in the U.S.-China trade saga

While there are expectations for monetary policy easing in the euro zone, inversion in U.S. Treasury yield curve increased hopes for further rates cuts by the U.S. central bankGold rose more than 1% on Tuesday as an inversion in the U.S. yield curve and disappointing U.S. economic data rekindled fears of a recession amid uncertainties around the trade dispute. US/ are beginning to think that the economy is not doing that well, there could be a possible recession, or more likely, a slowing economy, which means the Federal Reserve will have to cut rates and that supports gold," said John Sharma, an economist with National Australia Bank.

Federal funds futures FEDWATCH implied traders saw a 91% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut by the U.S. central bank next month.Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday predicted a trade deal with China but optimism wilted after China's foreign ministry spokesperson dismissed claims of phone calls between the two sides. "if there are some sort of tangible signs that the (trade) talks are going to restart, or at least that they are getting there, it would be a risk-on outcome and we can see yields go higher and push gold a bit lower," said Ilya Spivak, senior currency strategist with DailyFx.

On the technical front, bullion's 14-day relative strength index (RSI) was around 70, indicating that the commodity was approaching overbought territory.

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GBP/USD Tumbles, No-Deal Brexit Risks Rise as UK Government Expected to Suspend Parliament

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GBP/USD Exchange Rate Slumps on Reports Government Will Prorogue Parliaments

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is falling sharply today, on the back of reports that the UK government will seek to prorogue government.

At the time of writing the GBP/USD exchange rate is trading at around $1.2202 this morning, down around 0.6% from today’s opening levels.

How Will the Suspension of Parliament Impact the Pound (GBP)?

The Pound (GBP) has been met by a heavy sell-off this morning on the back of reports indicating that the UK government plans to prorogue parliament.

The BBC reports Boris Johnson’s government will ask the Queen to suspend parliament early next month, to allow the new administration to hold a Queen’s speech to outline the government’s future policy.

However this means that Parliament will sit for just a few days after MPs return from their summer recess, leaving MP’s little time to pass legislation to block a no-deal Brexit.

Sterling previously strengthened this week as opposition parties announced that they had agreed a strategy to prevent a no-deal Brexit through legislative measures.

These gains have effectively been wiped out today as the government’s move to prorogue parliament is thought to have greatly increase the chances of a no-deal Brexit.

Its likely Sterling will now face a sell-off bias over the next couple of months as UK politics become increasingly turbulent as the UK faces a cliff-edge Brexit.

Trade Uncertainties Continue to Influence the US Dollar (USD)

At the same time, movement in the US Dollar is a little more mixed in broader trade as a result of the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade dispute.

The US is currently set to raise tariffs on $300bn worth of goods from China from 10% to 15% on 1st September, with China due to respond with retaliatory tariffs of between 5% and 10% on $75 work of US goods.

Hopes of the two powers striking a deal on trade have fallen sharply in recent days after Donald Trump called for US companies to quit China.

The US Dollar has fluctuated in response as markets fear the dispute is pushing the US economy towards a recession and could prompt the Federal Reserve to introduce fresh stimulus measures in an effort to prevent this.

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Forex - Dollar Steadies; Pressure Remains Amid Inverted Yield Curves, Trade War

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 The U.S. dollar steadied on Wednesday in Asia after falling overnight amid Sino-U.S. trade uncertainties and an inversion of the U.S. yield curve. 

The U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies was up 0.1% to 97.998 by 12:58 AM ET (04:58 GMT).

Developments in the trade dispute between the U.S. and China remained in focus. U.S. President Donald Trump claimed Monday that Chinese officials had called and offered to resume negotiations, but Beijing claimed the next day that it is not aware the phone call took place. 

Tensions between the two sides escalated late last week after both the U.S. and China announced new tariff measures and Trump appeared to threaten to use emergency powers to force U.S. companies to stop making goods in China.

Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark 2-year Treasury note fell to 1.526% overnight, creating an “inverted yield curve,” a phenomenon that has presaged several past U.S. recessions and sparked concerns among traders.

The AUD/USD pair slipped 0.2% to 0.6737, continuing its downward momentum after Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Guy Debelle said a weakening domestic currency was supporting the economy and that further falls would be beneficial.

A bleaker economic outlook in China, Australia's largest trading partner, was also cited as headwind for the Aussie dollar.

The NZD/USD pair fell 0.4% to 0.6335.

The USD/JPY pair rose 0.1%.

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Forex - Yen Gains Ground as Trade War Fears Linger

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The yen gained ground against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as concerns over the latest escalation in the protracted Sino- U.S. trade war underpinned demand for safe haven assets.

Global markets have been whipsawed by developments in the trade dispute this month. U.S. President Donald Trump claimed Monday that Chinese officials had called and offered to resume negotiations, an assertion that China declined to confirm.

His comments helped temper sharp losses in global markets after both sides announced new tariffs on Friday. But concerns remain about a lack of a clear path toward resolving the dispute which has seen the global economic outlook deteriorate.

The dollar was down 0.37% against the yen at 105.72 by 04:02 AM ET (08:02 GMT).

The yen, which tends to be bought in times of economic uncertainty, also rose around 0.6% versus the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

The U.S. dollar index measuring the greenback against a basket of six major currencies was down 0.17% at 97.81.

Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell to 1.51%. The yield curve was inverted as 2-year yields traded at 1.53%, which is commonly considered a sign of an impending economic recession.China’s onshore yuan fell to a fresh eleven-and-a-half year low, amid worries that the economy is suffering from the ongoing trade dispute.

The euro was little changed at 1.1106.

The British pound traded at 1.2243, after a 0.5% fall on Monday as investors reassessed whether British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had made any progress in convincing the European Union to renegotiate the Brexit agreement.

Johnson said on Monday he was prepared to take Brexit talks with the European Union down to the very last minute before the Oct. 31 exit deadline, and if necessary to take a decision to leave without a deal on that day.

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Forex - Yuan Falls Amid Conflicting Signs on Trade War; Yen Gains

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The Chinese yuan fell against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday in Asia amid conflicting signals on the Sino-U.S. trade war.

The USD/CNY pair traded 0.1% higher to 7.1610 by 11:47 PM ET (03:47 GMT).

Speaking at the G7 summit in Biarritz, France, U.S. President Donald Trump said that he had received two phone calls from Chinese officials over the weekend urging new trade talks.

The yuan received some support following his comments, as they eased some fears over the latest escalation in the trade war. However, China’s foreign ministry later said it was not aware of any U.S. - China phone calls, raising doubts on whether the two sides would be able to resolve the trade issues in the near future.

The People’s Bank of China lowered its official onshore yuan midpoint to 7.0810 per dollar on Tuesday, a fresh 11-1/2-yaer low.The safe-haven yen recovered as the latest trade news once again tempered investors optimism. The USD/JPY pair last traded at 105.68, down 0.4%.

"The dollar rallied overnight due to optimism about a trade deal, but there's a sense that the market has gotten a little ahead of itself," said Junichi Ishikawa, senior foreign exchange strategist at IG Securities, in a Reuters report.

"Some traders can book a little profit here. There are still so many issues that can trigger a clash between the United States and China. Treasuries shows the market is still somewhat skeptical."

The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies slipped 0.1% to $97.893.

The AUD/USD pair and the NZD/USD pair were down 0.2% and 0.3% respectively.

The GBP/USD pair slipped 0.1% to 1.2209. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Monday that he was prepared to take Brexit discussions with the European Union to the very last minute, and that he would make the decision to leave without a deal if necessary.

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Gold technical analysis: Drops to multi-day lows, back below $1500 handle

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  • Gold edged lower through the mid-European session on Monday and slipped below the key $1500 psychological mark to hit multi-day lows in the last hour.
  • Sustained weakness below 200-hour SMA - coinciding with 23.6% Fibo. level of the $1400-$1535 upsurge - was seen as a key trigger for intraday bearish traders.

Meanwhile, technical indicators have been gaining negative traction on hourly charts and support prospects for an extension of the corrective slide back towards testing last week's swing lows - around the $1483-81 region - nearing 38.2% Fibo. level.
 
However, oscillators on the daily chart maintained their bullish bias and might continue to attract some dip-buying interest, which might help limit further downside ahead of Wednesday's important release of the latest FOMC policy meeting minutes.Failure to defend the mentioned support might prompt some follow-through technical selling and accelerate the slide further towards $1475 intermediate support en-route 50$ Fibo. level - around the $1467-65 region amid fading safe-haven demand.

 
On the flip side, the $1500-10 region (23.6% Fibo. level and 100-hour SMA) now seems to act as an immediate resistance, which if cleared might accelerate the up-move towards $1522 intermediate resistance before the commodity aims back towards multi-year tops.


Gold 1-hourly chart

fxsoriginal

XAU/USD





OVERVIEW
Today last price1498.82
Today Daily Change-14.78
Today Daily Change %-0.98
Today daily open1513.6
 
TRENDS
Daily SMA201463.04
Daily SMA501420.56
Daily SMA1001355.11
Daily SMA2001317.2
LEVELS
Previous Daily High1527.65
Previous Daily Low1504.2
Previous Weekly High1534.4
Previous Weekly Low1481
Previous Monthly High1452.72
Previous Monthly Low1382.02
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1513.16
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1518.69
Daily Pivot Point S11502.65
Daily Pivot Point S21491.7
Daily Pivot Point S31479.2
Daily Pivot Point R11526.1
Daily Pivot Point R21538.6
Daily Pivot Point R31549.55

Forex - Dollar Hovering Near 3-Week Highs ahead of Fed Minutes

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The U.S. dollar was hovering just below three-week highs in subdued trade on Wednesday as investors looked ahead to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting later in the day for fresh clues on the monetary policy outlook.

The Fed cut rates for the first time since 2008 last month in what Chairman Jerome Powell called a “mid-cycle adjustment.” Financial markets are still expecting further rate cuts before the end of the year against a background of heightened trade tensions and slowing growth.

The minutes come ahead of the central bank's annual Jackson Hole seminar later this week, where Powell is to give an eagerly awaited speech on Friday. His comments are of particular interest after last week's inversion of the U.S. yield curve - widely regarded as a recession signal - boosted expectations the Fed would cut rates again at its September meeting.

The U.S. dollar index against a basket of six major currencies edged up 0.12% to 98.17 by 03:05 AM ET (07:05 GMT) after shedding 0.2% overnight.

The index had climbed to 98.33 on Tuesday, its highest since Aug. 1, as U.S. yields bounced from multi-year lows at the week's start on signs global policymakers were ready to step up stimulus support to stave off a steep economic downturn.

U.S. yields, however, declined overnight on the prospect of more easing by the Fed.

Takuya Kanda, general manager at Gaitame.Com Research Institute, believes U.S. President Donald Trump's "strong desire for deep rate cuts" may raise hopes among some traders of strong easing signals at Jackson Hole. But he also warned that Powell may opt to give little away in his speech as the Fed prepares for next month's meeting.The dollar rose 0.34% to 106.58 yen reversing a part of the previous day's losses, while the euro was a touch lower at 1.1089 having put on 0.2% overnight.

The single currency dipped briefly after Italy's Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced his resignation on Tuesday.

"Conte's resignation won't have a strong impact on the euro in the longer run as it is only a chapter in the ever-shifting Italian politics," said Kanda at Gaitame.Com Research.

In addition to the Fed, the euro also has to contend with the possibility of the European Central Bank easing policy in September.

The Bundesbank said on Monday that the German economy may have continued to shrink over the summer as industrial production declined. That would mean the euro zone's biggest economy is now in recession following the second quarter's decline reported last week. Recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth."Germany in recession would generate a strong buzz, and there is no doubt that economic conditions in the zone would force the ECB to take its next policy steps," said Daisuke Karakama, chief market economist at Mizuho Bank.

Sterling was down 0.24% to 1.2138, giving back some of the previous sessions gains.

The British pound rose after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the European Union would think about practical solutions regarding the post-Brexit Irish border.

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Forex - U.S. Dollar Flat; Euro Also Little Changed as Italy’s PM quits

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 The U.S. dollar was near flat on Wednesday in Asia, while the Euro was also largely unchanged as Italy’s Prime Minister quit.

The U.S. dollar index that tracks a basket of other currencies was little changed at 98.107. A gathering of central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming and a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell are expected to be major directional drivers for the U.S. currency.

The Fed will release minutes of its July policy meeting minutes due later in the day. In July, the central slashed rate for the first time since the financial crisis.

The euro was also near flat after Italy’s Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said he is resigning ahead of no-confidence vote.

The latest reports suggested that it is unclear if snap elections would be called or if parliament would be asked to try and form a new government.

The safe-haven Japanese yen fell against the U.S. dollar even as stock markets traded lower amid concerns on a slowing global economy. Uncertainties surrounding the U.S.-China relations also affected market sentiment, as U.S. President Donald Trump said he had to “take China on” even if it would cause short-term impact on U.S. economy.

"Somebody had to take China on," Trump told reporters during a White House visit by Romanian President Klaus Iohannis. "This is something that had to be done. The only difference is I am doing it," he said.

"China has been ripping this country off for 25 years, for longer than that and it's about time whether it's good for our country or bad for our country short term. Long term it's imperative that somebody does this," he said.

The AUD/USD pair inched up 0.4% to 0.6778. The NZD/USD pair slipped 0.1% to 0.6407.

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Gold Price and Silver Outlook Remains Constructive So Far

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GOLD & SILVER PRICE TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:

  • Gold pullback may deepen, but constructive so far
  • Silver has support not too far away to keep it bid

For an intermediate-term fundamental and technical viewpoint, see the Q3 Gold Forecast.

GOLD PULLBACK MAY DEEPEN, BUT CONSTRUCTIVE SO FAR

Last week, gold ran into major long-term resistance by way of lows created following the 2011 spike-high, and the volatile price action last Tuesday cemented the bottom of the 1522/75 zone as a legitimate ceiling.

The decline so far has been subtle with little to no change since a week ago, a bullish development thus far. Gradual, stubborn declines following sharp run-ups into resistance are considered a good thing; it shows buying interest even at a hint of weakness.This doesn’t mean something won’t further spur gold along to the downside, but as long as it doesn’t turn outright aggressive, then weakness will be treated only as a correction within an ongoing bull-move that began since the wedge-breakout in June.

A good spot for would-be longs is the trend-line running up from late May in the vicinity of 1450/60. A decline and hold there would offer enough room back up to the resistance zone for a good risk/reward swing-trade with potential to turn it into something much larger if a breakout above 1575 were to develop.

For now, gold is still close to a major zone of resistance and at risk of correcting further or at least moving sideways for a bit longer. This takes some shine off of fresh longs, but doesn’t invoke much confidence in shorts given the generally strong nature of gold.

Check out the IG Client Sentiment page to see how changes in trader positioning can help signal the next price move in gold and other major markets and currencies.

Silver price action is similar to gold, constructive so far despite last Tuesday’s volatile session. There is good support by way of a couple of directions. There is the 2003 trend-line that once acted as resistance, then there is the trend-line from July rising up near current levels. Sideways price action has silver looking like it wants to maintain and build on the rally that began at the end of May.RESOURCES FOR FOREX & CFD TRADERS

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