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Dollar shines against euro, riskier peers as virus hit widens

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The dollar stood tall over the languishing euro and heavily sold exporter currencies on Wednesday, as investors reckoned with a deepening economic fallout from the coronavirus.

The new coronavirus has caused 2,004 deaths in China and infected more than 74,000 people, while measures to contain it have paralyzed the economy and the supply chains it feeds.

Apple Inc (O:AAPL) has warned it will probably miss its March quarter sales guidance amid disrupted production and shopping habits. Car makers are idling plants for lack of parts.

The yield curve between U.S. three-month bills and 10-year notes inverted overnight, a bearish economic signal, and German investor confidence slumped as its economy stagnates, sending the euro cheaper than $1.08 for the first time since 2017.

"The market is trying to model itself on coronavirus and it's struggling really hard to understand how that goes and that's pushing capital in to the U.S.," said Chris Weston, head of research at Melbourne brokerage Pepperstone.

"The U.S. remains that least-dirty T-shirt, the best house in a fairly shabby-looking neighborhood. As a destination for capital, it's still the light that you look for."

Against a basket of currencies, the greenback is sitting by a four-month high at 99.452 (=USD). It touched a one-week high against the Australian and New Zealand dollars overnight.

Both Antipodean currencies are heavily exposed to China, and both have lost roughly 5% against the dollar this year . Norway's krone, sensitive to the global growth outlook via oil exports, has shed 6% in 2020 and slumped to an 18-year low overnight .

The euro (EUR=) has fallen 3.7% amid increasing signs of divergence between the European and U.S. economies.

The single currency last bought $1.0796. Moves in major currencies were slight in morning trade.

China says figures indicating a slowdown in new cases in recent days show the aggressive steps it has taken to curb travel and commerce are slowing the spread of the disease beyond central Hubei province and its capital, Wuhan.

That has not stopped worries mounting, with hedge funds turning to proxies from railway movements to port activity and air pollution to try and gauge how much production remains offline.

Gold is sitting above $1,600 an ounce for the first time since U.S.-Iran tensions in the Middle East sent it spiking in early January . Priced in euros, gold's value jumped almost 2% to a record high overnight (XAUEUR=R).

Investors are looking to the minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting, due to be released at 1900 GMT, for insight in to the Fed's thinking about virus risks.

European purchasing managers index numbers and part-month Korean export figures, both due on Friday, are also going to be closely watched for the first hard signs of economic impact.

"We assess the risks are firmly skewed towards the negative effects of COVID-19 lasting longer," Nomura analysts wrote in a note, using the World Health Organization's designation for the illness caused by the coronavirus.

"Therefore, we maintain our cautious view through positions in long USD/THB, long USD/CNH, long USD vs GBP, NZD and long AUD/NZD."

China's yuan was last steady at 7.0017 per dollar in offshore trade .

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Dollar shines against euro, riskier peers as virus hit widens

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The dollar stood tall over the languishing euro and heavily sold exporter currencies on Wednesday, as investors reckoned with a deepening economic fallout from the coronavirus.

The new coronavirus has caused 2,004 deaths in China and infected more than 74,000 people, while measures to contain it have paralyzed the economy and the supply chains it feeds.

Apple Inc (O:AAPL) has warned it will probably miss its March quarter sales guidance amid disrupted production and shopping habits. Car makers are idling plants for lack of parts.

The yield curve between U.S. three-month bills and 10-year notes inverted overnight, a bearish economic signal, and German investor confidence slumped as its economy stagnates, sending the euro cheaper than $1.08 for the first time since 2017.

"The market is trying to model itself on coronavirus and it's struggling really hard to understand how that goes and that's pushing capital in to the U.S.," said Chris Weston, head of research at Melbourne brokerage Pepperstone.

"The U.S. remains that least-dirty T-shirt, the best house in a fairly shabby-looking neighborhood. As a destination for capital, it's still the light that you look for."

Against a basket of currencies, the greenback is sitting by a four-month high at 99.452 (=USD). It touched a one-week high against the Australian and New Zealand dollars overnight.

Both Antipodean currencies are heavily exposed to China, and both have lost roughly 5% against the dollar this year . Norway's krone, sensitive to the global growth outlook via oil exports, has shed 6% in 2020 and slumped to an 18-year low overnight .

The euro (EUR=) has fallen 3.7% amid increasing signs of divergence between the European and U.S. economies.

The single currency last bought $1.0796. Moves in major currencies were slight in morning trade.

China says figures indicating a slowdown in new cases in recent days show the aggressive steps it has taken to curb travel and commerce are slowing the spread of the disease beyond central Hubei province and its capital, Wuhan.

That has not stopped worries mounting, with hedge funds turning to proxies from railway movements to port activity and air pollution to try and gauge how much production remains offline.

Gold is sitting above $1,600 an ounce for the first time since U.S.-Iran tensions in the Middle East sent it spiking in early January . Priced in euros, gold's value jumped almost 2% to a record high overnight (XAUEUR=R).

Investors are looking to the minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting, due to be released at 1900 GMT, for insight in to the Fed's thinking about virus risks.

European purchasing managers index numbers and part-month Korean export figures, both due on Friday, are also going to be closely watched for the first hard signs of economic impact.

"We assess the risks are firmly skewed towards the negative effects of COVID-19 lasting longer," Nomura analysts wrote in a note, using the World Health Organization's designation for the illness caused by the coronavirus.

"Therefore, we maintain our cautious view through positions in long USD/THB, long USD/CNH, long USD vs GBP, NZD and long AUD/NZD."

China's yuan was last steady at 7.0017 per dollar in offshore trade .

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– EURUSD cautiously bearish; forms inverted hammer

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EURUSD appears to have slowed slightly – with the development of an inverted hammer pattern – ahead of the April 2017 gap of 1.0820 – 1.0777 following a descent, which deflected off the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) around 1.1095.

The short-term oscillators, although still negative, are showing a marginal increase in positive momentum. The MACD is deep in the negative region and below its red trigger line, though smoothing slightly, while the RSI has made a minor improvement in the oversold territory. That said, the nearing bearish cross of the 100-day SMA by the 50-day one and the distancing of the downward sloping Tenkan-sen from the blue Kijun-sen line, all suggest, that maybe the downward move may endure a while longer.

To the downside, immediate support could come from the April 2017 gap from 1.0820 to 1.0777, which also encapsulates the 1.0793 level, this being the 123.6% Fibonacci extension of the up leg from 1.0878 to 1.1238. A successful dive beneath this barrier could encounter the 138.2% Fibo extension of 1.0741 and if the bears persist, the 161.8% Fibo extension at 1.0655 may be next to draw traders’ attention.

Otherwise, if buying interest picks up, initial resistance could come from the 1.0878 level from October 2019 ahead of a limiting region from 1.0925 to 1.0940. Overrunning this, the 1.0991 inside swing low could deter the pair from testing the area of the upcoming bearish cross of the 50- and 100-day SMAs currently around 1.1058. Clearing this too, the 1.1095 high and the 200-day SMA at the Ichimoku cloud, may prove difficult to surpass.

Overall, in the very short-term, the market is strongly bearish if the pair remains below the 1.0878 low, while a move back above this level could turn it back to neutral.


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Forex - Dollar Mixed as Chinese Stimulus Papers Over Economic Ills

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The dollar was mixed against developed-market peers in early trading on Monday after hitting a new four-month high in overnight trading.

The greenback was also a touch weaker against the Chinese yuan after the People’s Bank of China added to its already extensive stimulus measures since the outbreak of the Covid-19 virus in cutting its medium-term financing rate to a new record low.

The measures reflated Chinese asset markets still further, leaving the benchmark stock index where it was before the New Year holiday, but have done little to lift the uncertainty over the path of the Chinese economy as it struggles with the virus outbreak.

By 3:40 AM ET (0840 GMT), the dollar index, which tracks the dollar against half a dozen developed-market currencies, was at 99.007, thanks largely to gains against the Japanese yen in the wake of data showing that the Japanese economy shrunk at an annual pace of 6.3% in the fourth quarter.

That number was far worse than the 3.7% drop expected and came after a hike in the country’s consumption tax in October.

"Annualization always exaggerates trends," said UBS Wealth Management chief economist Paul Donovan on a morning briefing, noting the one-off hits from a sales tax increase in October and a subsequent typhoon.

By 3:45 AM ET, USD/JPY was at 109.86, up 0.1%. The dollar was also a touch stronger against Sterling at $1.3029, while EUR/USD edged up from last week’s lows to $1.0838.

Trading is expected to be relatively quiet on Monday, not just because of the U.S. President’s Day holiday, but also because of key business sentiment surveys later in the week. ‘Flash’ purchasing managers indices from IHS Markit are due on Friday.

Nordea analyst Martin Enlund argued in a note at the weekend that the euro may be close to its near-term lows.

“Hard data looks terrible in Germany, but maybe we shouldn’t care too much about it?” Enlund wrote, adding that the usually-reliable Ifo survey “suggests that we are close to peak negativity around German hard data.”

However, he acknowledged a risk that the euro’s decline could prompt further U.S. tariffs from President Donald Trump, an action that could stop any euro turnaround in its tracks.

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Euro Pound (EUR/GBP) Exchange Rate Flat as Covid-19 Plays ‘Second Fiddle’

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The Euro Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate remained flat, leaving the pairing trading at around £0.8315.

The single currency was left under pressure at the start of the week as worries about weakening Eurozone growth weighed on the currency.

The new threat to the global economy, Covid-19 continued to weigh on markets, with Eurozone investors fearing the bloc will be dragged into a recession.

Added to this, the German economy stagnated in the final quarter of 2019, which saw renewed fears of a recession.Added to this, at the end of last week’s session, EUR hit a 33-month low against the US Dollar (USD). Since the start of January, EUR has slumped by around 2.3%.

Sterling (GBP) Flat as UK and EU Will ‘Rip Each Other Apart’

Last week, the Pound remained under pressure as traders fretted about the future trade relationship between the UK and European Union.

On Sunday, France warned the UK to expect a battle with the bloc in post-Brexit trade talks, dampening GBP sentiment.

The country’s Foreign Minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian said the two sides would ‘rip each other apart’.

He also added that the UK’s goal to achieve a free trade deal by the end of 2020 would be tough.

Euro Pound Outlook: Will Strong UK Labour Market Buoy GBP?

Looking ahead to Tuesday, the Pound (GBP) could rise against the Euro (EUR) following the release of UK labour market statistics.

If December’s unemployment remains at current lows, and wage growth rises higher than expected, GBP will jump.

Meanwhile, disappointing German data could send the single currency lower.

If Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index falls further than expected in February, the Euro Pound (EUR/GBP) exchange rate will slump.

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Forex - Japanese Yen Slips on GDP Data; Chinese Yuan Rises

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The yen traded slightly lower on Monday in Asia after Japan reported a much deeper economic contraction than expected.

The USD/JPY pair inched up 0.1% 109.81 after the Cabinet Office reported today that Japan’s GDP in the December quarter fell an annualized 6.3%, faster than the expected 3.7% contraction.

The drop, which followed a revised 0.5% gain in July-September, was the biggest since a 7.4% decline marked in April-June 2014.

Meanwhile, the USD/CNY pair fell 0.2% to 6.9760

On Sunday, China reported 1,933 new confirmed cases of the coronavirus, down from 2,009 the previous day, and 100 new deaths, down one from 142 the previous day.

The economic impact of the epidemic is still unknown. Some analysts have estimated that China's annual growth could slow to between 4% and 5%, down from the 6% annual growth estimated by the government.

The AUD/USD pair gained 0.2% to 0.6727.

The GBP/USD pair was near flat at 1.3043. The U.K. will release a slew of data this week, including the December jobs report and the latest inflation figures.

Reports on retail sales, manufacturing and services PMI data for February are also due.

The EUR/USD pair traded 0.1% higher to 1.0838. The euro fell to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar since April 2017 last Friday after Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy, reported that GDP growth stagnated at the end of 2019. The European Central Bank is scheduled to publish the minutes of its January meeting on Thursday.

The U.S. dollar index inched up 0.1% to 99.037. Financial markets on stateside will be closed on Monday for Presidents Day.

The Federal Reserve is due to release the minutes of its January meeting on Wednesday. There are also several Fed policymakers scheduled to speak during the week, including Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Dallas 


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FOREX-Yen edges up on virus woes, euro hounded before GDP data

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The Japanese yen held gains against the dollar on Friday, as fresh doubts about the scale of the coronavirus outbreak supported demand for safe-haven currencies.

The Chinese yuan nursed losses as the flu-like virus, which emerged late last year in China's central Hubei province, cast a deeper shadow over the economic outlook.

The euro languished at multi-year lows versus the dollar and the Swiss franc as investors grow more pessimistic about the outlook in the common currency bloc before the release of gross domestic product data later on Friday.

In contrast, the pound rode a wave of optimism on hopes that a British cabinet reshuffle will lead to more expansionary fiscal policy to support growth.

Officials in Hubei rattled financial markets on Thursday by announcing a sharp increase in new infections and deaths from the coronavirus, reflecting the adoption of a new method to diagnose the illness. about the real extent of the epidemic is likely to discourage investors from taking on excessive risk until there is sufficient evidence that its spread has slowed.

"There is a return of risk aversion, so yen and other safe-haven assets have risen, but reaction so far has been temporary and limited," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.

"The change of reporting standards in China is a concern. There is a fear that China is still hiding something."

The yen JPY=EBS edged up to 109.80 per dollar in Asia on Friday, following a 0.25% gain the previous session.

In the onshore market, the yuan CNY=CFXS slipped 0.06% to 6.9818 per dollar, while its offshore counterpart CNH=D3 eased slightly to 6.9853, following a 0.2% decline on Thursday.

Hubei officials on Friday reported 4,823 new cases and 116 new deaths as of Feb. 13, but investors were still reeling after the province reported 14,840 new cases and a record daily increase in deaths on Thursday, using new diagnostic methods to reclassify a backlog of cases. economy will grow at its slowest rate since the financial crisis in the current quarter, according to a Reuters poll of economists who said the downturn will be short-lived if the outbreak is contained. coronavirus was first detected in Hubei's capital Wuhan and has so far claimed more than 1,300 lives in China and spread to 24 other countries.

The euro EUR=EBS fell 0.1% to $1.0834, the lowest since April 2017, as investors braced for the release of GDP data from Germany and the euro zone later on Friday.

The single currency EURCHF=EBS was quoted at 1.0619 Swiss francs, close to the lowest since August 2015. The euro EURGBP=D3 eased slightly to 83.07 pence, close to the weakest since December.

Sentiment for the euro worsened after data earlier this weak showing a plunge in euro zone manufacturing output reinforced expectations that monetary policy will remain accommodative. pound GBP=D3 was little changed at $1.3046 following a 0.64% gain on Thursday due to expectations that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's appointment of a new finance minister will lead to more fiscal spending to help Britain weather its transition away from the European Union.


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FOREX-Euro skids to new low ahead of GDP data, dollar shines

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 Euro weakest since April 2017 on growth concerns

* Dollar finds more buyers amid coronavirus worries

* Yen, Swiss franc well supported as investors stay nervous

The euro eased to another nearly three-year low on Friday as investors worried about slowing growth momentum in the euro zone ahead of an estimate of how its economy performed in the fourth quarter.

The European single currency has lost 1% so far this week and is on track for its worst two-week performance since mid-2018. Fourth-quarter gross domestic product data is due at 1000 GMT - economists polled by Reuters expect 0.1% quarter-on-quarter growth, the same as the previous 3-month period.

"The bearish trend on EUR/USD may continue today as growth data out of the euro zone are quite unlikely to improve the grim economic outlook for the area," ING analysts said in a note.

"At this stage, with worries around the negative impacts of coronavirus on the euro zone economy, even some better-than-expected data may not be enough to trigger an inversion in the bearish EUR trend."

The euro fell to $1.0827 EUR=EBS overnight before settling at $1.0841, down marginally on the day.

The single currency has been buffeted by signs of a slowdown in powerhouse Germany and ongoing demand for dollars. Against the Swiss franc, the euro weakened to another 4-1/2 year low of 1.060 francs EURCHF=EBS . about the extent of the coronavirus in China after officials in Hubei announced a sharp increase in new infections and deaths has kept both the safe-haven yen and the dollar well supported. dollar index .DXY ., which measures the currency against a basket of rivals, rose to its strongest since October. It has risen 0.4% this week - on top of gains of 1.3% last week.

As well as euro zone data, traders are also waiting for a batch of U.S. data later in the day including retail sales and industrial production numbers.

The yen JPY=EBS edged up to 109.77 per dollar on Friday, following a 0.25% gain the previous session.

In the onshore market, China's yuan CNY=CFXS slipped 0.06% to 6.9818 per dollar, while its offshore counterpart CNH=EBS clawed back earlier losses and was last at 6.985, following a 0.2% decline on Thursday.

Uncertainty about the real extent of the epidemic is likely to discourage investors from taking on excessive risk until there is sufficient evidence that its spread has slowed.

"There is a return of risk aversion, so yen and other safe-haven assets have risen, but reaction so far has been temporary and limited," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.

Sterling consolidated gains around the $1.3060 mark GBP=D3 after jumping on Thursday when the announcement of a new British finance minister, an ultra-loyalist to Prime Minister Boris Johnson, raised expectations that the upcoming budget would increase public spending to boost the economy following Britain's Jan. 31 withdrawal from the European Union.

Against the euro, the pound rose 0.1% to 82.995 pence EURGBP=D3 , close to a 2-month high.


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Euro plunges against Swiss franc as China virus cases soar

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The euro fell to a four-and-a-half-year low against the Swiss franc on Thursday and the yen gained as investors sought safe havens after China's Hubei province, the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak, reported a sharp increase in the number of new cases.

Using a new method of diagnosis, the province reported on Thursday 14,840 new cases of the virus as of Feb. 12, up from 1,638 new cases on Tuesday. The number of deaths in the province rose by 242, a daily record, to 1,310.

"Taken together, it suggests fading the overnight reaction," said Elsa Lignos, global head of FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

The initial move was to dump risky assets, however. After weakening to a three-and-a-half-week low the day before, the yen gained 0.3% against the dollar on Thursday to 109.770 yen.

The euro dipped to 1.0622 francs, below its 2016 trough of 1.0623 and its lowest level since August 2015. It last stood around 1.06235 (EURCHF=).

"When you see numbers like this, you can't help but move to risk-off trades, which means buy the yen and sell stocks," said Ayako Sera, market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank in Tokyo.

In the onshore market, the yuan slipped 0.13% to 6.9809 per dollar. The offshore yuan dropped 0.14% to 6.9830.

The Australian dollar , widely used as a proxy for risk on Chinese assets, fell 0.22% to $0.6724. The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.2% to $0.6453.

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Forex - Euro Stuck Near 2 1/2-Year Low After Virus Surge Hits Mood

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 The euro was stuck near a two-and-a-half-year low after early trading on Thursday, after a fresh surge in coronavirus cases in China added to concerns about the impact of the outbreak on an already weak eurozone economy.

By 3 AM ET (0800 GMT), EURUSD was at $1.0877, up less than 1% on the day and only just off an overnight low of $1.0865, which marked its lowest level since May 2017. GBP/USD was up 0.2% at $1.2985

Sentiment toward the euro has been badly hit by the sharpest drop in industrial production in a decade in December, which pointed to the likelihood of recession in both Germany and Italy, the biggest and third-biggest economies in the currency bloc.

Analysts at Barclays (LON:BARC) warned of a “synchronized decline” in output across the region, but noted that it contrasted with an improvement in sentiment surveys in January.

“As surveys point to a (sizeable) rebound in January and the extent of output disruption caused by the outbreak of nCov remains hard to gauge, the picture for manufacturing activity in Q1 remains blurry,” they wrote.

There was no noticeable impact from jobless data in France on Thursday, which showed the unemployment rate fell sharply to 8.1% in the fourth quarter, its lowest since before the financial crisis in 2008.

Overnight, Chinese authorities had revised estimates for cases of the Covid-19 disease by nearly one-third after switching to a new testing methodology. The number of recorded deaths also leaped by over 200. The Communist Party also dismissed its Hubei regional head and its city chief in Wuhan, in an effort to assuage public anger at the way it has handled the crisis so far.

“This outbreak could still go in any direction,” WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a briefing in Geneva on Wednesday.

Haven currencies such as the yen and Swiss franc, ticked up after losing over 1% against the dollar since the start of the month. However, their gains were still moderate. By 3 AM ET, USD/JPY was at 109.75 yen, down 0.3%, while USD/CHF was 0.1% lower at 0.9770.

The greenback was higher against most emerging currencies, however. It hit a nine-month high against the Turkish lira and was up 0.2% against the Chinese yuan at 6.9812.


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