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Forex - Euro Tests Lows Ahead of Expected No-Confidence Vote in Italy

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The dollar was little changed in early trading in Europe Wednesday but starting to build momentum against the euro at the start of a day where politics is likely to dominate economics.

The euro was at $1.1079 by 3:30 AM ET (0730 GMT) and looking to test last week’s low of $1.1066 ahead of a big day in the Italian parliament. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte is due to speak in the afternoon and is expected to resign ahead of a no-confidence vote that has been called by the right-wing Lega party, the junior member of the governing coalition. While both the Lega and its partner the 5 Stars Movement appear to have given up on continuing their government, it is far from clear what might follow if the no confidence vote succeeds.

Snap elections are one possibility, but it is also possible that President Sergio Mattarella will ask the parties in parliamment to form a new government. Theoretically, the 5 Stars Movement and the traditional center-left Democratic Party are capable of forming a majority that could pass a budget for the coming year and perhaps take the sting out of the country’s budget dispute with the European Union. However, that would require the two parties to set aside a good deal of past animosity toward each other.

Economics are also against the euro at present, after the Deutsche Bundesbank warned in its monthly report on Monday that it expects a second straight quarter of contraction in the summer, meaning that the euro zone’s traditional engine room would be in recession for the first time in a decade.

The euro was, however, strengthening against the pound after Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s latest initiative on Brexit underlined the distance between the U.K. and EU positions on how to manage the Irish border in future. In an open letter to EU Council President Donald Tusk, Johnson again reiterated the desire for freedom to diverge from the EU’s regulatory standards in the long term, a prospect which the EU has always said will require border and customs checks to be introduced.

The pound was at 1.0927 against the euro, down 0.3% from late Monday and apparently resuming its slide, ending a short-covering rally that was triggered by hopes that lawmakers would strike a cross-party agreement to block a No-Deal Brexit.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, was up less than 0.1% at 98.257.

Elsewhere, EUR/CHF remained well offered as the backdrop of the global slowdown forces the unwinding of carry trades and raises demand for haven currencies. Analysts note that sight deposits in the Swiss banking system have been rising at an accelerating pace over the last four weeks, something they say strongly suggests intervention by the Swiss National Bank to slow the franc’s rise. At 1.0854 to the euro, it has risen nearly 10% in the last 16 months, most of that appreciation coming in the last four months.

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Canadian Dollar Price Forecast: USD/CAD Rise at Risk of Failing

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USDCAD TECHNICAL HIGHLIGHTS:

  • USDCAD rise marked by grinding price action, may fail
  • May fail, but still need to respect channel in the meantime
  • Specific levels and lines to watch in the days ahead

USDCAD RISE MARKED BY GRINDING PRICE ACTION, MAY FAIL

The U.S. Dollar has been rallying against the Canadian Dollar since last month, but the rise in USDCAD hasn’t been particularly strong and has slowed even further in recent sessions. Sluggish price action suggests a break to the downside could soon be in the works.

But before jumping the gun on shorts, the near-term upward technical structure still remains in place and needs to be snapped before sellers can start to gain the upper hand. Watch for a break of the lower parallel and a lower-low to unfold under last week’s low at 13184 (4-hr chart). Should this happen then a larger decline could be in store.

The initial target on a breakdown clocks in at the 2012 trend-line and July low (just above 13000), which should be in near confluence at the time price would arrive (daily chart). A decline to that point would be a very important test. Not only is it a long-term trend-line, but a failure to hold could lead to a sharp sell-off similar to 2017 as the grind higher since that year fully gives way to selling (weekly chart).

On the top-side, if the USDCAD can continue to maintain the channel, or at the least maintain its higher-high, higher-low form, then the next major obstacle beyond 13344 is the trend-line running down off the 2016 peak.

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Forex - Dollar Hovering Near 2-Week Highs, Sterling Edges Up

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The U.S. dollar was hovering near two-week highs against a currency basket on Monday as U.S. Treasury yields bounced back from recent lows amid hopes that major economies will seek to prop up slowing growth with fresh stimulus.

The U.S. dollar index, against a basket of six major currencies was at 98.05 by 03:01 AM ET (07:01 GMT), not far from the two-week high of 98.20 reached on Friday.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 1.57%, having pulled away from a three-year trough of 1.47% marked last week in the wake of global slowdown fears.

Falling yields last week caused the two-year/10-year Treasury curve to invert for the first since 2007, a phenomenon widely regarded as a recession signal that puts the Federal Reserve interest rate deliberations into focus.

"This week's main event is the Jackson Hole symposium and Fed Chairman (Jerome) Powell's speech," said Junichi Ishikawa, senior FX strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo.

Powell will deliver a speech on Friday at an annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

"What Powell has to say is in focus as the discrepancy remains between what he said on interest rates and what the markets have come to expect the Fed will do," Ishikawa said.

Powell said after the Fed lowered rates in July that the easing was not the start of a series of cuts. But market expectations for the Fed to cut rates by another 25 basis points at the next policy meeting in September have increased.

The euro was steady at 1.1092 while the British pound edged up 0.15% to 1.2166.

The dollar was little changed against the yen at 106.37.

The Chinese yuan was slightly lower after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was not ready yet to make a trade with China.

Traders were also cautious ahead of the debut of China's new benchmark lending rate on Tuesday, which was announced at the weekend.

The People’s Bank of China on Saturday unveiled interest rate reforms to help lower borrowing costs for companies and support slowing growth, which has been hit by the trade war with the U.S.

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Forex - USD Flat; Trump Wants Hong Kong Problems Solved Before Making Trade Deal

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The U.S. dollar was flat on Monday in Asia as traders remained cautious ahead of Fed minutes due later this week.

The U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies was largely unchanged at 98.072 by 12:37 AM ET (04:37 GMT).

All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve this week as traders await fresh insights on how the central bank may respond to growing fears of a recession after the U.S. Treasury yield inverted last week. 

The Fed will publish the minutes of its July meeting on Wednesday, while Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech on Friday. 

Meanwhile, the USD/CNY pair slipped 0.1% to 7.0446. The People’s Bank of China sets the yuan’s reference rate at 7.0365 today, versus 7.0312 on Friday. 


Developments on the Sino-U.S. trade front were in focus. U.S. President Donald Trump insisted their trade war with China did no harm to the U.S. and that the economy is “doing tremendously well.”

“Our consumers are rich, I gave a tremendous tax cut, and they’re loaded up with money,” Trump said on Sunday. The president also reiterated that he is not ready to make a trade deal with China, hinting that he wants to see Beijing deal with the ongoing protests in Hong Kong first. 

“I would like to see Hong Kong worked out in a very humanitarian fashion,” Trump said. “I think it would be very good for the trade deal.”

Tech giant Huawei was also under the spotlight today as U.S. President Donald Trump said he does not want to do business with the company “at all because it is a national security threat.”

Tech giant Huawei was also under the spotlight today as U.S. President Donald Trump said he does not want to do business with the company “at all because it is a national security threat.”

The Wall Street Journal and Reuters previously reported that the U.S. was preparing to extend a licence that would allow Huawei to buy parts from U.S. companies for 90 days. The current agreement will end today.
“We’ll see what happens. I’m making a decision tomorrow,” Trump said.

The USD/JPY pair was unchanged at 106.36. The safe-haven yen was under pressure earlier today on expectations that policymakers would unleash new stimulus amid slowing global economies.

On Saturday, the People’s Bank of China said it would improve the mechanism used to establish the loan prime rate so it could “use market-based reform methods to help lower real lending rates The AUD/USD pair inched up 0.1% to 0.6783, while the NZD/USD pair slipped 0.1%.

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Forex - Dollar Steady; Euro Recovers from Italy Shock; U.K. GDP Eyed

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The dollar was mixed within relatively narrow ranges Friday at the start of European trading, after the Chinese yuan defied some weak factory gate inflation data to end the week on a stable note.

In Europe, the euro recovered most of its Thursday losses after the eruption of the latest political crisis in Italy, where Matteo Salvini, the head of the right-wing populist Lega party, called for new elections in a move to cement his power. The reaction was more violent in the bond and stock markets, where Italian assets sold off dramatically.

By 3:30 AM ET (0730 GMT), the euro was at $1.1188, up 0.2% from overnight lows. It was relatively unmoved by data for French industrial production in June, which fell by a greater-than-expected 2.3%, consistent with the dismal pattern in neighboring Germany.

The British pound remained under pressure ahead of second-quarter gross domestic product figures, which are due at 0830 GMT. Prime Minister Boris Johnson was reported on Thursday to be planning a general election in early November, days after the country’s scheduled departure from the EU.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, was effectively unchanged at 97.403

The latest rant by President Donald Trump against the strength of the dollar and the Federal Reserve via Twitter on Thursday has had no lasting effect on the market, beyond reminding participants of the risk of intervention to depress the dollar.

“A currency war has not erupted – at least, not yet. But the danger is real,” said ING analyst Benjamin Cohen. “Relations between the world’s two largest economies could go from bad to much worse.”

Cohen noted that the Trump administration’s labeling of China as a currency manipulator may lead China to respond in kind to save face, through measures such as a ban on the export of rare earth elements vital for high-tech manufacturing.

Figures released earlier Friday showed China’s producer price inflation index turning negative for the first time in three years, stoking fears that it will ‘export deflation’ to the rest of the world as it did between 2012 and 2016.

The yuan, however, stayed well within the range it had traded in this week. On the mainland it fell by less than 0.1% to 7.0503 to the dollar, while in the less regulated offshore market, it rose fractionally to 7.0757. The discount to the People’s Bank of China’s fixing narrowed as the central bank pegged the yuan at a new 11-year low of 7.0136.

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EUR/GBP approaches 2019 highs near 0.9250

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  • EUR/GBP moves closer to YTD tops, trades around 0.9250/55.
  • UK advanced Q2 GDP disappointed estimates today.
  • UK’s M.Gove suggested a bank holiday on November 1.

EUR/GBP is now picking up extra upside traction and moves at shouting distance from yesterday’s 2019 highs in the 0.9250/60 band.

EUR/GBP bid after poor GDP figures

The Sterling is not only suffering from the rising uncertainty around Brexitand the clear possibility of a ‘no deal’ outcome, but it is also deriving extra weakness from miserable prints from advanced Q2 GDP figures released today.

In fact, the UK economy is now seen contracting 0.2% QoQ during the April-June period and it is expected to grow at an annualized 1.2%, both prints coming in noticeably below forecasts.

Further poor UK data saw Business Investment expected to contract at a quarterly 0.5% in Q2 and Manufacturing Production contracting at a monthly 0.2% during June. On the brighter side, Industrial Production contracted less than expected (0.1% MoM) and the trade deficit shrunk to £7.01 billion also in June.

On the Brexit front, preparations for a ‘no deal’ scenario stay on the rise, as M.Gove suggested earlier today a bank holiday on November 1 in order to mitigate the potential consequences to the banking system of the ‘hard’ UK-EU divorce.

What to look for around GBP

The outlook on the British Pound looks increasingly fragile pari passu with rising odds for a Brexit ‘no deal’ on October 31. In the meantime, the Irish backstop remains the exclusive obstacle for the resumption of talks between London and Brussels, although the subject appears relegated in light of preparations for the worst-case scenario. Back to the UK economy, poor flash Q2 GDP figures published today added to the already gloomy panorama from UK fundamentals, keeping the sour prospect for the economy and the currency unchanged. At last week’s BoE event, the central bank kept the monetary conditions unchanged, although it refuses to factor in a ‘no deal’ scenario in its projections. The BoE still sees a ‘soft Brexit’ outcome and reiterated that rates are seen increasing gradually in order to bring inflation to the bank’s target.

EUR/GBP key levels

The cross is advancing 0.47% at 0.9255 and faces the next up barrier at 0.9265 (2019 high Aug.8) followed by 0.9306 (2018 high Aug.29) and finally 0.9411 (monthly high Oct. 2009). On the flip side, a breach of 0.9088 (low Jul.31) would open the door to 0.9074 (21-day SMA) and then 0.9051 (high Jul.17).

EUR/USD is consolidating – Commerzbank

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According to Commerzbank, EUR/USD is consolidating just below resistance at 1.1285 and the 200 day ma at 1.1296 and the consolidation is viewed in a positive light.

Key Quotes

“Key resistance is 1.1360/77, the 2018-2019 down channel and the 55 week ma. A weekly close above this latter level is needed for us to adopt an outright bullish stance. Dips lower are likely to find some support circa 1.1150/06. Key support is the 1.0967 2018-2019 support line and below here lies the 78.6% retracement at 1.0814/78.6% retracement.”

“The market will need to regain the 55 week ma and channel at 1.1360/77 to generate upside interest.”

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Dollar slips as markets recover; China data helps

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LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar edged lower across the board on Thursday, as risk sentiment stabilized after resilient Chinese trade data and Beijing's efforts to slow a slide in the value of the renminbi encouraged investors to buy riskier currencies.

Data showed Chinese exports rose 3.3% in July from a year earlier, while analysts had looked for a fall of 2%, and policymakers fixed the daily value of the yuan at a firmer level than many had expected, even though it was beyond the 7 per dollar level for the first time since the global financial crisis.

Against a basket of currencies (DXY) the dollar was broadly steady at 97.58, but it weakened 0.1% versus the Australian dollar and the British pound

"The recent comments from Chinese officials suggest they want to stabilize their currency, otherwise a sharp currency drop may fuel capital outflows," said Manuel Oliveri, an FX strategist at Credit Agricole (PA:CAGR) in London.

"The other factor helping risk sentiment is a growing swathe of central bank cuts."

This week, New Zealand joined India and Thailand in cutting interest rates, with market expectations growing that other major central banks will join in further easing monetary policy.

Indeed, market expectations for more than a quarter point rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve in September is still firmly baked into bond markets, despite an overnight bounce in global markets.

Those expectations forced the dollar to weaken also against the euro and the yen.

The yen was a tad firmer at 106.185 per dollar. It touched 105.500 yen overnight, its strongest level since Jan. 3, before pulling back slightly.

"The yen's appreciation versus the dollar may have slowed for now, but it stands to keep gaining in the longer term," said Junichi Ishikawa, senior FX strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo. "Its other peers, notably the antipodean currencies, have weakened severely and this provides overall support to the yen."

The kiwi nudged up 0.1% to $0.6452, following a slide to a 3-1/2 year low of $0.6378 on Wednesday after the rate cut.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Rally Stalls as Trade War Fears Lessen

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Chinese yuan consolidates losses

It’s not often that EUR/USD traders look to the Chinese exchange rate for clues on where the single currency might go next, but such is the case this week as the trade battle between the US and China is dominating the financial markets.

Initially, it was a tweet from the US president about more tariffs that spooked the financial markets. A drop in the yuan below the key 7 level versus the greenback back intensified fears.

The decline in the Chinese currency stirred up speculation that China is fighting back by devaluing the yuan. However, it seems that there is an attempt to contain the drop in the yuan as the exchange rate has fallen into a range.

I think it is important to have a correct assessment of sentiment here. While equities have bounced back and the dollar decline looks like it has stalled out a bit, I don’t think the backdrop has changed in such a manner that warrants a reversal to erase the price action across financial markets in the early week. At least not in the 

Although there was an intraday push above the resistance level, the pair closed below it on an intraday basis. Not only that, a doji candle was posted in the process which signals exhaustion and builds towards the case for a pullback.

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GBP/USD Daily Forecast – Range Emerges as Dollar Weakens

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After a sharp drop early last week, GBP/USD has fallen into a range while the dollar eases lower.

GBP/USD Consolidates Losses

If there was a clear theme in July for the FX markets, it was that the British Pound was weak. Although Sterling has been able to hold the downside a bit over the past few sessions, there is no reason to believe this theme has not carried over into August.

A weaker dollar over the past few sessions has triggered a range in GBP/USD. This is not all that surprising after the sharp earlier fall in the pair. However, while the technical outlook for EUR/USD shows that that the near-term trend has shifted upwards, GBP/USD does not share the same bullish sentiment.

The pair has been weighed by concerns over a no-deal Brexit as the new Prime Minister has not convinced UK citizens that he can pull off an exit with a deal in place. He has vowed to leave the European Union whether a deal is made or not which has caused the markets to reprice Sterling.

For this reason, I don’t expect that GBP/USD is trying to carve out a bottom here. Unless there are some developments that will boost confidence that a deal will be made, I think the natural course for the pair is lower.

Technical Analysis

I think it is important to keep in mind that there is significant support in play here. On the chart below, I have marked it off at 1.2150. However, I think we can extend a bit below the level even as it was around this area that GBP/USD bottomed in late 2016 to early 2017.

Because of the underlying support, and as the dollar as trending lower, I think GBP/USD will try to move to upper bound of the current range. I think it’s possible the pair attempts to break higher from the range. But as mentioned, I don’t think a catalyst is in place for the pair to bottom here.

Resistance has come into play from the 100 moving average on an hourly chart. If the pair pushes through it, I expect it will attempt to trigger stops above Friday’s high of 1.2188.

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