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Yen Inches Up, Dollar Flat as Trump Signs Hong Kong Bill

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Prices of the safe-haven rose, while the U.S. dollar stayed near flat on Thursday in Asia amid worries of rising Sino-U.S. tensions.

The USD/JPY pair inched down 0.1% to 109.45 by 1:20 AM ET (05:20 GMT). Overnight, U.S. President Donald Trump signed two bills that supports Hong Kong protestors into law, potentially complicating trade talks progress with Beijing.

In response to the U.S. move, China's foreign ministry said it resolutely opposed the law and threatened to take firm counter-measures, calling any attempts to interfere in Hong Kong are “doomed to fail.”

Chinese and Hong Kong stocks fell today following the news, while the yen traded modestly higher.

Meanwhile, data showed Japan’s retail sales plunged 14.4% in October from a month earlier, which was more than the expected 10.4% decline.

"The yen is being bought because of the news about Trump signing the Hong Kong bill," said Yukio Ishizuki, foreign exchange strategist at Daiwa Securities, in a Reuters report.

"Algorithmic trading could push the yen up further, but the dollar's losses will be limited because we've had positive U.S. economic data, which has lifted sentiment."

The U.S. Dollar Index last traded at 98.248, little changed from yesterday’s close.

The Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product increased at a 2.1% annualized rate, compared to 1.9% in the first reading. In a separate report, durable goods gained 0.6% after falling 1.4% in the prior month.

The AUD/USD pair slipped 0.1%, while the NZD/USD pair inched up 0.1%.

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Forex - Dollar Holding Steady Amid Encouraging Signs on Trade

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The U.S. dollar was holding steady against the Japanese yen on Tuesday amid encouraging signs that the U.S. and China will soon agree an interim deal to halt their trade war.

Market sentiment was boosted by reports that China's Vice Premier and chief trade negotiator Liu He held a phone call with his U.S. counterparts and that both sides reached consensus on how to move forward in their dispute.

That came after the Chinese state-backed Global Times newspaper on its Twitter feed on Monday the two countries are very close to a "phase one" trade deal, discounting "negative" media reports.

The dollar initially rose to two-week highs of 109.19 against the yen, before settling back to 108.9 by 04:04 AM ET (09:04 GMT), unchanged for the day. It sat at 98.19 against a basket of currencies, just below a one-week high.

"The broad trend is the markets are looking for a deal because trade has been the biggest factor weighing on global growth and holding back confidence," said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney.

The euro was little changed against the greenback at 1.1014, holding above the one-week low of 1.1003 reached on Monday.

The British pound was lower, down 0.2% at 1.2871 after an opinion poll in the U.K. showed that the opposition Labor Party has narrowed the governing Conservatives lead ahead of a Dec. 12 election, fueling uncertainty over Brexit.

Investors were looking ahead to U.S. trade data, house price figures and consumer confidence data later in the trading day, but overall, currency trading is slowing down ahead of U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.


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Forex - Dollar Falls after Fed Rate Cut, APEC Summit Cancellation

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The dollar fell against a currency basket on Thursday after the third Federal Reserve rate cut this year, as investors took indications of a potential pause in the easing cycle with a pinch of salt.

In lowering its key overnight lending rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a target range of between 1.50% and 1.75% the U.S. central bank dropped a previous reference in its policy statement that it "will act as appropriate" to sustain the economic expansion - language that was considered a sign for future cuts.

The lack of a clear indication from the Fed that it is done with easing for now was seen as less hawkish than expected, sending the dollar lower.

"The new, slightly shorter, statement tries to keep their options open and puts them back into a data-dependent mode, but circumstances could mean that they have less optionality than they think," said Tim Foster, portfolio manager at Fidelity International in London.

The U.S. dollar index was down 0.3% at 97.11 by 04:33 AM ET (08:33 GMT), its lowest level in a week.

The euro was up 0.14% to 1.1164, while the greenback last traded at 108.61 yen, 0.2% lower on the day.

The dollar was pressured lower against the safe-haven yen by the news that Chile has withdrawn as host of an APEC summit in November where the U.S. and China had been expected to take major steps towards resolving their protracted trade war.

Hopes that the world's largest economies would soon agree on a partial deal has boosted risk appetite this week.

“The fact that Chile has cancelled the mid-November APEC Summit should not be a deal breaker for the U.S. and China to reach a truce," said Tai Hui, Asia chief market strategist at JPMogan Asset Management in Hong Kong.

"If the two sides were genuinely willing to reach an interim deal before mid-December, when the next scheduled hike in tariff on Chinese exports is due to take place, they will find a venue to get the deal done."

The Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy steady on Thursday but introduced new forward guidance to more clearly signal the future chance of a rate cut, underlining its concern over global economic risks.

The British pound pushed higher after Prime Minister Boris Johnson won parliamentary approval on Wednesday to hold a general election



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Forex - U.S. Dollar Slips After Fed Policy Decision

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The U.S. dollar slipped on Thursday in Asia after the Federal Reserve slashed its benchmark funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 1.5% to 1.75% as expected, but altered language in its post-meeting statements and indicated that it may pause rate cuts from here.

The Fed removed a key clause that said the Fed was committed to “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.”

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a news conference that central bank officials “see the current stance of monetary policy as likely to remain appropriate.”

“We see the current stance of policy as likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with our outlook.”

The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies was down 0.3% to 97.127 by 1:10 AM ET (05:10 GMT).

Trade tensions between China and the U.S. remained uncertain after Chile said it is canceling the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit next month due to ongoing protests. U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping were expected to meet on the sidelines and possibly sign phase one of a trade deal.

The GBP/USD pair gained 0.2% to 1.2927 after the U.K. Parliament voted this week to hold an early general election on Dec. 12.

The USD/JPY pair slipped 0.2% to 108.66. As expected, the Bank of Japan maintained its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and a pledge to guide 10-year government bond yields around 0%.

The AUD/USD pair and the NZD/USD pair jumped 0.4% and 0.6%.


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Forex - Pound Gives Up Some Gains; U.K., EU Inch Closer to Brexit Deal

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The British pound gave back some gains on Wednesday in Asia after gaining overnight. A Bloomberg reported that the U.K. and European Union are close to agreeing on a legal draft of a Brexit deal.

The GBP/USD pair was down 0.2% to 1.2755 by 12:18 AM ET (04:18 GMT).

The pound spiked yesterday after European Michel Barnier said a draft legal text was being drawn up, and that an agreement “is still possible this week.”

“Our team(s) are working hard, and work has just started now today, this work has been intense over the weekend and yesterday, because even if the agreement will be difficult, more and more difficult, to be frank, it is still possible this week,” Barnier told reporters in Luxembourg on Tuesday morning.

He added that “any agreement must work for everyone,” saying it is “high time to turn good intentions into a legal text.”

The deal however is dependent on Prime Minister Boris Johnson getting support from the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party, which is uncertain. The two sides are racing to reach a deal before the Oct. 31 deadline, but remain optimistic that an agreement will be made by the end of Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index last was little changed at 98.042.

Tensions between the U.S. and China flared up again after the U.S. House passed four measures, including the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act”, on Tuesday in unanimous voice votes.

A similar bill is in front of the Senate.Beijing has threatened to retaliate if Congress passes a bill.

The USD/CNY pair gained 0.2% to 7.0964.

On the data front, the U.S. retail sales data are set to be released later in the day and are forecast to increase for a seventh straight month.

China will release third-quarter GDP, September industrial production and retail sales data on Friday.

The AUD/USD pair lost 0.3% to 0.6731. The USD/JPY pair dropped 0.2% to 108.63.


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Forex - Yuan Trades Lower Amid Renewed Trade Concerns

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 The Chinese yuan traded lower against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday in Asia after a Bloomberg report sparked fresh concerns on the Sino-U.S. trade talk progress.

Risk appetite improved late last week after the U.S. and China announced a “roadmap to a phase 1 agreement” which included the suspension of a tariff increase planned for this week and a commitment from China to buy more U.S. agricultural product.

But the Chinese yuan gave up some of its earlier gains today as Beijing reportedly said it wanted more talks before agreeing to the deal, suggesting that not all the details are nailed down.

China now wants to hold more negotiations this month before agreeing to signing the deal, a Bloomberg report said, citing people familiar with the matter.

The USD/CNY pair gained 0.2% to 7.0726 by 1:00 AM ET (05:00 GMT)

“We will carefully remind you that such a “promise” is worth nothing at all, and currently it looks more likely that running for president on an anti-Chinese agenda is better/smarter (for re-election purposes) than doing the opposite,” Martin Enlund and his analyst team at Nordea Markets wrote in a weekly preview.

On the data front, China reported on Tuesday that its producer price index fell by 1.2% year-on-year. It marked the steepest factory price decline July 2016, but was in line with expectations.

The consumer price index (CPI) increased 3% year-on-year in September, compared with the expectation of a 2.9% gain. Pork prices in China jumped 69.3% from a year ago. It is the major driver in the overall increase in CPI.

The country also reported weaker-than-expected trade data this week, which showed the sharpest drop in imports since 2016.

The U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies last traded at 98.137, down 0.03%.

The USD/JPY pair inched down 0.1% to 108.32.

The AUD/USD pair and the NZD/USD pair were both little changed.

The GBP/USD pair rose 0.2% to 1.2629. Brexit developments remained in focus after the European Union showed some cool reaction to the U.K.’s proposals on resolving the Irish border-related elements of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement.

The EU’s top negotiator Michel Barnier reportedly told EU diplomats at the weekend that the proposals represented an “untested” risk that were not acceptable, according to The Guardian.


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Forex - Pound Falls Despite Renewed Brexit Hopes; Dollar Rises Amid Trade Progress

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The British pound fell against the U.S. dollar on Monday in Asia despite renewed Brexit hopes. The greenback inched up amid positive trade progress with China.

The GBP/USD pair lost 0.3% to 1.2614 1:25 AM ET (05:25 GMT). The pound rose on Friday amid signs of a possible agreement on the Irish border problem.

Reports suggested that the U.K. had conceded that the province of Northern Ireland would remain in the EU customs area immediately after Brexit – a move that would satisfy EU concerns about the integrity of its border.

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he thought there was a way forward for a Brexit deal with the European Union, adding that “there is work to be done.”

Meanwhile, the yuan gained today after the U.S. paused its plan to impose more tariffs on Chinese goods this week. The USD/CNY pair lost 0.5% to 7.0538.

On the data front, China’s U.S. dollar-denominated exports were down 3.2% in September, slightly more than expected. Imports also fell more than analysts’ forecast, customs data showed on Monday.

That left China with a trade surplus of $39.65 billion in September, compared with a $34.84 billion surplus in August.

Analysts previously expected exports to decline by 3%, while imports were expected to drop by 5.2%.

China will release third-quarter GDP, September industrial production and retail sales data on Friday.

The U.S. dollar index inched up 0.1% to 98.123. According to the partial trade deal Washington and Beijing reached late last week, Beijing will make large agricultural purchases worth as much as $50 billion and take steps on intellectual property, financial services and the yuan.

The USD/JPY pair inched down 0.1% to 108.31.

The AUD/USD pair and the NZD/USD pair lost 0.1% and 0.3% respectively.

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Dollar holds near two-and-a-half-month yen high on U.S.-China partial deal, pound stands tall

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 The dollar held near a 2 1/2-month high against the yen on Monday after Washington and Beijing announced progress toward a trade deal, while sterling hovered near a three-month peak on hopes for an orderly British exit from the European Union.

On Friday, the dollar strengthened against the safe-haven yen to as much as 108.63 yen , its highest level since August 1, before U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States and China had reached a 'Phase 1' trade deal.

It pared those gains after Trump announced the agreement, covering agriculture, currency and some aspects of intellectual property protections.

In early Asian trade on Monday, the dollar inched down to 108.36 yen against the yen, while the euro stood at $1.1025 (EUR=) versus the greenback, off Friday's three-week high of $1.10625.

Tokyo's market is closed for a public holiday on Monday, so trading volumes are likely to lighter than usual.

The trade deal "looks more symbolic than substantial, and might be better described as simply an 'interim trade war truce,'" said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank.

"This Phase 1 agreement, if inked, does little to immediately brighten the outlook for global trade and growth. While it shouldn't prevent the Fed from agreeing to cut rates by another quarter point on Oct. 30, it doesn't provide a firm pretext for significant or sustained U.S. dollar depreciation."

The deal represents the biggest step between the United States and China in a 15-month trade dispute. Friday's announcement did not include many details and Trump said it could take up to five weeks to get a pact written. He acknowledged the agreement could fall apart during that period, though he expressed confidence that it would not.

STERLING

The British pound surged on Friday to as high as $1.2708 , its strongest level since July 1, and a five-month peak of 86.955 pence per euro (EURGBP=D4), on optimism about orderly Brexit.

The pound was last down 0.38% at $1.2600 in Asia.

The EU agreed on Friday to hold another round of intense negotiations with London in a bid to break the deadlock and secure a deal before the Oct. 31 deadline.

EU negotiator Michel Barnier and his British counterpart Stephen Barclay earlier held what both sides called a "constructive" meeting in Brussels. The British and Irish prime ministers said on Thursday they had found "a pathway" to a possible deal, and by Friday some officials were expressing guarded optimism.



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Forex - Dollar Surges on Australian Rate Cut, Weak PMIs

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The dollar rose to within touching distance of a new two-year high in early trading on Tuesday, surging against the Australian and New Zealand dollars after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its key cash rate to an all-time low of 0.75%.

The dollar rose almost a cent against the Aussie after the RBA’s move, which came after the economy grew at its slowest rate in a decade in the second quarter, another spillover from the U.S.-China trade war that has damped Chinese demand for Australian commodities. It also hit a new 10-year high against the kiwi.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six developed currencies, rose to as high as 99.21, close to the two-year high of 99.33 that it hit last month. That was when it hit a 10-year high against the Aussie – a level that looks set to be tested soon.

“Further price movements may depend on Governor (Philip) Lowe's remarks at a dinner in Melbourne later today, in which he may choose to finesse expectations for future rate movements or provide more clarity on the focus on consumer spending, as opposed to the recent focus on the labour market,” Robert Carnell, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at ING, said in a note to clients.

The dollar also rose against the yen after a worse than expected Tankan survey, while it inched higher against the euro and sterling as crunch time approached in the Brexit drama. The Daily Telegraph reported Tuesday that Prime Minister Boris Johnson will send his detailed plans for avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland to the EU on Tuesday after his speech to the Conservative Party’s annual conference.

According to the Irish state broadcaster RTE, the plans involve a string of customs clearance centers set a few miles back from the border. That effectively creates a hard border in all but name, and thus effectively breach the Good Friday Agreement that the U.K. and EU have both promised to respect.

By 3:30 AM ET, the euro was at $1.0890, up 10 ticks from a new two-year low that it hit at the start of trading. The pound was back below $1.2300, while both the Swiss franc and the Swedish krona also came under pressure after sharp drops in their national purchasing managers indexes indicated contraction in both countries’ manufacturing sectors.

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RPT-POLL-RBI to pick up slack as India stimulus measures to fall short -economists

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Recent stimulus measures announced by the Indian government will be insufficient to boost economic growth significantly, said a majority of economists in a  poll who predicted two more interest rate cuts this year, in October and December.

To revive the ailing economy, the government in September announced a steep cut in the corporate tax rate - to 22% from 30% - triggering the biggest intraday gain in Indian stocks in more than a decade.

That along with other measures, including a rollback of a higher surcharge on foreign portfolio investment - introduced in the budget in July - led international investors to become net buyers of Indian assets in September.

But nearly 60% of around 50 economists who answered an additional question said those stimulus measures were unlikely to have a notable impact on the economy.

"While the cut in corporate taxes is sharp, its actual impact on growth is uncertain. Given that the current problem is of weak demand, a demand augmenting measure would have been more productive.

Although the economy is expected to have recovered last quarter from the sharp slowdown in the three months prior, economists downgraded their growth outlook for this fiscal year and next from three months ago.

The Sept. 24-30 poll of over 50 economists predicted gross domestic product growth to average 6.1% this fiscal year, the lowest since polling began for the period in April last year.

If realised, that would mark the slowest pace of growth in seven years.

The economy was then expected to expand 6.8% next fiscal year, a downgrade from 7.2% predicted in the July poll.

That weak outlook was driven by lack of clarity on when and how the U.S.-China trade war will end, which has already hurt business sentiment, manufacturing activity and the global economy.

But some economists argued recent measures announced by the Indian government, along with monetary policy easing, would likely boost Asia's third-largest economy.

The Reserve Bank of India has already eased policy by a cumulative 110 basis points this year.

It is now expected to cut its repo rate INREPO=ECI by 25 basis points on Friday, making it the fifth meeting in a row of easing, and is then predicted to follow that up by with another 15 basis points slice in December, taking the key rate to 5.0%.

But the RBI is then forecast to keep rates unchanged until 2021 at least.

"It looks like the authorities - both the government and the central bank - are firing up all cylinders to provide stimulus to the economy...with stimulus announced so far should start to revive growth going forward," said Prakash Sakpal, Asia economist at ING.

When asked how many more rate cuts it would take to boost growth significantly, nearly 45% of economists said cumulative rate cuts up to 50 basis points will be needed.

Eleven said between 50 and 100 basis points would do the trick, while two said over a percentage point.

The outlook for further policy easing was also backed by subdued inflation, which is not expected to breach the central bank's medium-term target of 4% until the fourth quarter of 2020.

"With inflation remaining under control, monetary stimulus in combination with the recent fiscal measures are likely to be growth supportive," said Shashank Mendiratta, economist at IBM (NYSE:IBM).

But not everyone agreed with that view.

Nearly 30% of respondents said boosting economic growth significantly is beyond the RBI's immediate control.

"Not only monetary policy but also short-term measures that the government has taken so far, are used to sugar-coat the wrong policy trajectory from a structural point of view," said Hugo Erken, head of international economics at Rabobank.

"Because what India really needs is a large-scale reform package on several fronts."

A weak growth outlook, ongoing concerns about the U.S.-China trade war and the prospect of further RBI easing are all expected to hurt the Indian rupee INR= in coming months.

After rallying as much as 3% against the dollar in September, the rupee is forecast to reverse most of those gains to trade at 72.50 per dollar in a year, compared to 70.70 on Monday.

"Despite the fact that both monetary and fiscal levers are now being deployed to prop up growth, a material recovery is still elusive," added ANZ's Sen.

"We therefore see limited scope for the current (rupee) rally to last unless demand sharply recovers. In addition, global risks including worsening in trade uncertainties or an oil price surge could add to rupee volatility."

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