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EUR/GBP Forecast: Euro in the Crosshairs, Can the ECB Deliver on Stimulus?

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EUR/GBP Exchange Rate Muted ahead of ECB Rate Decision

The Euro Pound (EUR/GBP) exchange rate remains rangebound this morning as markets brace for what could be an explosive policy decision by the European Central Bank (ECB) this afternoon.

At the time of writing EUR/GBP exchange rate is almost unchanged from this morning’s opening levels, leaving the pairing trading at around £0.8947.

Can the ECB Live Up to Market Expectations?

All eyes are on the European Central Bank today as it prepares to deliver what could be its most important policy decision in years.

Growth in the Eurozone has slowed significantly in recent months, with the bloc’s manufacturing sector deep in contraction and Germany teetering on the edge of a recession.

As a result economists are expecting the ECB will looking to ease its monetary policy to spur growth, with the announcement of what has been billed as a ‘substantial’ stimulus package.

Expectations are high, but the question on everybody’s lips is what might the package include and if it be enough to lift the Eurozone out of the doldrums, with the risk of the Euro (EUR) falling if the measures disappoint.In a note to clients Commerzbank warned:

‘There is high uncertainty about the extent of the expansionary measures the ECB will implement today; and therefore there is large potential for strong fluctuations in the euro exchange rates.’

This comes amid signs that some members of the ECB’s governing council are resistant to the idea of reopening the ECB’s quantitative easing programme, having weaned the Eurozone economy off of bond purchases less than a year ago.


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Euro pauses before ECB meeting as trade thaw triggers risk rally

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The euro hovered near $1.10 on Thursday as traders waited to see the scale of fresh stimulus expected from the European Central Bank, while China's yuan and Australia's dollar were buoyed by further signs of a thaw in the U.S.-China trade war.

After a difficult August in which concerns about a global recession sparked a scramble into safer assets, investors have been returning to riskier markets this month, encouraged by China and the United States making moves to ease trade tensions and by receding fears of a no-deal Brexit.

China on Wednesday exempted a basket of U.S. goods from its tariffs, while U.S. President Donald Trump said in a tweet he would delay a scheduled tariff hike by two weeks in October.

Export-driven Asian currencies from Taiwan to Australia rallied on the buoyant mood as the world's two largest economies each granted concessions in their heated tariff dispute.

The Japanese yen, the go-to safe haven currency for nervous investors, fell to a six-week low against the dollar. The yen breached the 108 mark and was last at 107.98 yen per dollar, down 0.1% on the day and far from its seven-month high of 104.46 plumbed last month.

The Aussie hit a six-week high and the offshore Chinese yuan rose 0.5% to a three-week high of 7.0737 against the dollar.

Market attention now turns to the ECB, the first of a series of major central bank events, with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan meeting next week.

Investors almost universally expect a rate cut at Thursday's ECB meeting as policymakers try to prop up the region's ailing economy.

The real uncertainty is whether policymakers will restart a quantitative easing program after some members of the governing council in recent weeks expressed doubt about the need to relaunch asset purchases.

SEB strategist Jussi Hiljanen said he expected the ECB to cut the deposit rate by 10 basis points, extend the forward guidance on rates by six months and announce the restart of a quantitative easing program with monthly purchases lower than the market anticipated.

"Such a package of stimulus measures would be a disappointment for the market, pushing long rates higher and EUR/USD higher and steepening the curve," Hiljanen said.

The single currency (EUR=EBS) has shed 3.5% since June and was steady at $1.1017 in early European trade.

The dollar was slightly lower against a basket of currencies at 98.599 (DXY).

Sterling was little changed (EURGBP=D3). The pound rocketed to a six-week high on Monday, reversing last week's losses as investors welcomed the British parliament's move to block a no-deal Brexit on Oct. 31.

Despite the more positive mood in risk assets this week, analysts expressed some caution about its sustainability."Just as the presidential tweet on tariffs this morning has injected more momentum ... we are only one social media posting away from a thoroughly unpredictable President turning sentiment on its head," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst for Asia Pacific at brokerage OANDA.

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3 reasons for EUR/USD to fall over the next 3 months

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I posted earlier on The 3 reasons EUR has bottomed against the USD and yen

An alternative viewpoint is for euro to fall.
Via Citi:
  1. in the near term, euro area activity remains very weak
  2. inflation low
  3. ECB may prepare another round of easing, probably at the 12 September, including more QE
More QE means, says Citi:
  • a negative net supply dynamic in the EA bond market
And, thereofe:
  • we lower our EUR/USD forecast 0-3m target from 1.12 to 1.08 level.


Forex - Yen Weaker, Euro Steady Ahead of ECB Meeting

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The yen was weaker on Wednesday as a cautious risk-on mood dampened safe haven demand, while the euro was steady ahead of the upcoming European Central Bank meeting on Thursday.

ECB policymakers are widely is expected to unveil a fresh wave of stimulus measures to shore up growth and inflation in the euro area economy, which has been hit by the escalating U.S.-China trade war and Brexit.

The ECB could set the tone for upcoming rate-setting decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan next week, and for the broader global risk appetite.

But concerns have been building that global central banks are reaching the limits of their stimulus options, especially those with negative interest rates and sub-zero long-term sovereign bond yields.

"Given the chance that the ECB fails to match market expectations for easing policy, the balance of risks favors higher EUR/USD and European FX outperformance," ING forex strategists said in an overnight note.

The euro was little changed against the U.S. dollar at 1.1043 by 02:38 AM ET (06:38GMT).

The dollar pushed higher against the yen, climbing 0.25% to 107.78.

Much of the positive mood in recent days has been driven by optimism that high-level talks between U.S. and Chinese negotiators next month can deliver some sort of trade-war breakthrough.

That was tamped down somewhat by White House trade advisor Peter Navarro on Tuesday, when he urged patience about resolving the two-year trade dispute between the world's two largest economies and said to "let the process take its course."

The British pound has managed to hold on to last week's gains after British parliament passed a law compelling Prime Minister Boris Johnson to seek a delay to the Oct. 31 date for leaving the European Union. Sterling last traded at 1.2365.

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AUD/USD stays on course for test of 100-day moving average

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AUD/USD trades at fresh six-week highs as we begin European trading

AUD/USD D1 11-09

The aussie got a boost earlier from the headline pertaining to China here and that saw AUD/USD hit a high of 0.6885 briefly. Currently, price is challenging resistance around 0.6880 from the 50.0 retracement level as seen above.

It has been a solid run for the pair over the past week and buyers don't look like they are letting up just yet.

The 100-day MA (red line) @ 0.6907 remains the key level to watch in all of this as a break above that will see buyers start to exert more control over the pair in the bigger picture. That will potentially put 0.7000 back on the map with the Fed to come next week.



Forex - Euro Steady Ahead of ECB, Sterling Slides

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 The euro was holding steady on Monday as investors looked ahead to a European Central Bank meeting later this week at which new stimulus is expected, while the British pound was pressured lower by Brexit uncertainty.

The euro was little changed at 1.1029 03:41 AM ET (07:41 GMT) after falling 0.1% on Friday.

The ECB is all but certain to approve new stimulus measures on Thursday to boost an ailing economy, but the exact composition of the stimulus package is still unclear.

While an interest rate cut seems like a done deal the big question is whether a resumption of asset purchases will be part of the package after some policymakers said it would be premature.

Heightened expectations for ECB easing come as other global central banks move to ease monetary policy, including the People's Bank of China, which on Friday cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves.

Policymakers are rushing to bolster growth as a wide-ranging dispute between the United States and China over trade policy drags into a second year, increasing the risk of recession.

The U.S. Federal Reserve will continue to act "as appropriate" to sustain the economic expansion in the world's biggest economy, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Friday in Zurich, confirming expectations for a rate cut at the Fed's next policy decision on Sept. 18.

Sterling traded at 1.2254, down 0.2% for the day.

The U.S. dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was little changed at 98.40.

The dollar traded at 106.97 yen, little changed from Friday.

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Forex: Traders Look to Beijing for New Stimulus

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The U.S. dollar was marginally higher Monday morning and the yuan strengthened somewhat as weak export data from China suggested Beijing might introduce new stimulus measures.

The US Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies was up 0.03% to 98.42 by 10:12 PM ET (02:12 GMT).The dollar got some bad news on Friday on a weaker than expected nonfarm payrolls report that reported 130,000 new jobs, compared to the 150,000 Wall Street had been expecting.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the reference rate for the yuan at 7.0851, compared to Friday’s fix of 7.0855.

Chinese exports fell by 1% in August, defying expectations for a 2% increase. Shipments to the U.S. slowed down sharply as a result of the ongoing trade dispute between the two countries. The new data has led to speculation that Beijing will introduce stimulus measures beyond the cut to banks reserve requirement ratios (RRR) of 50 basis points or 100 basis points for some banks, introduced on Friday.

The USD/JPY pair traded down 0.05% at 106.85. Japan’s economy grew by 1.3% between April and June, according to data from the Cabinet Office released today. The data matched the expectations of economists polled by Reuters. The rate translates into quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.3%.

The AUD/USD pair was up 0.07% at 0.6851 while the NZD/USD pair was up 0.05% to 0.6428.

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U.S jobs data supports dollar as fragile risk-on mood holds

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 Encouraging U.S. economic data gave the dollar an edge over its peers on Friday, arresting a recent flight from the greenback while also supporting Asian currencies as investors toned down recent gloom over the global economy.

Separate surveys suggested the world's largest economy is in better shape than investors had feared. U.S. service sector activity accelerated in August and private employers boosted hiring beyond expectations.

It contributed to a broad risk-on shift in money, bond and stock markets stoked by news that China-U.S. trade talks would resume next month, and supported the dollar.

"Stronger than forecast employment, factory orders and productivity numbers contradicted the recent 'slowing U.S. economy' narrative," said Michael McCarthy, chief strategist at brokerage CMC Markets in Sydney.

The dollar recouped some losses against the Australian and New Zealand dollars and against a basket of currencies clambered off a one-week low to hold flat around 98.419.

Traders now await the government's monthly payrolls report due at 1230 GMT on Friday for the next snapshot on the labor market's health.

"Investors are now hoping they can take this week's positivity over the finishing line, so fingers crossed the August U.S. payroll report...doesn't throw a damp towel on the proceedings," said Stephen Innes, Asia Pacific  Market Strategist at AxiTrader.

Other factors supporting risk sentiment were a potential breakthrough in the Hong Kong political crisis and reduced chances of Britain crashing out of the European Union on Oct. 31 without a deal.

The pound rose to its highest level against the dollar in more than a month and held most of those gains to trade around $1.2326 in Asian hours.

That was in spite of more political chaos in Britain, as Prime Minister Boris Johnson's plan to kick off what is in effect an election and a Brexit campaign was overshadowed on Thursday when his younger brother quit the government.

The euro (EUR=EBS) was steady at $1.1031 at 0030 GMT. The yuan gained overnight and held in morning offshore trade around 7.1382 per dollar. The trade-exposed South Korean won hit a month high of 1,198.40 per dollar.

Sentiment has been skittish, however, since the Brexit project remains up in the air and previous progress on U.S.-China trade negotiations has failed in the past.

The yen, which was sold to a one-month low of 107.22 per dollar on Thursday, bounced a little to 106.98, a signal some caution remains.

"These moves may prove to be short term rather than the start of a fresh cycle," said Nick Twidale, director of Sydney-based brokerage XChainge.

"Both the major geo-political issues that seem to have turned over the last few days have a large degree of uncertainty associated with them over the medium, let alone long term," he said, referring to Brexit and U.S-China trade talks.

"We've seen a lot of activity on the frequent flyer accounts of both the Chinese and US trade negotiation teams before which has resulted in little in the way of progress."

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Canadian Dollar Technical Analysis Overview: USD/CAD, GBP/CAD, EUR/CAD

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CAD Analysis and Talking Points

  • USD/CAD | Momentum Shifts to the Downside, 50DMA Eyed
  • GBP/CAD | Bounce Fades, Brexit Keeps Cross Volatile
  • EUR/CAD | Key Fibonacci Support Breaks
  • USD/CAD | MOMENTUM SHIFTS TO THE DOWNSIDE, 50DMA EYED
  • USD/CAD saw its sharpest fall since January 30th as a neutral statement from the BoC had been perceived as hawkish relative to expectations, while oil prices had also surged over 4%. However, while momentum indicators may well be pointing to further downside, eyes are on whether trend signals confirm the recent shift in momentum. On the downside, support is situated at the 50DMA at 1.3188, in which a closing break below raises risk of a 1.3115 test (61.8% Fib of 1.2780-1.3660 rise). Looking ahead, market participants will be paying attention to comments from the BoC Deputy Governor at 1700BST, while external factors regarding key US data will also be in focus.

    USD/CAD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (May 2019 – Sep 2019)

    Canadian Dollar Technical Analysis Overview: USD/CAD, GBP/CAD, EUR/CAD

    GBP/CAD | BOUNCE FADES, BREXIT KEEPS CROSS VOLATILE

    Despite the recent bid in GBP/CAD, the 50DMA situated at 1.6230 has held firm, thus curbing the upside in the cross. That said, as will be the case with many GBP pairs, Brexit induced volatility is likely to cause sizeable swings. On the topside, key resistance resides at 1.6300-25, which has previously limited gains in the pair. Trend signals are relatively weak, emphasising the fact that the cross is lacking firm direction, as such, the cross may stay within a 1.60-1.63 range.

    GBP/CAD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Feb 2019 – Sep 2019)

    Canadian Dollar Technical Analysis Overview: USD/CAD, GBP/CAD, EUR/CAD

    EUR/CAD | KEY FIBONACCI SUPPORT BREAKS

    The downtrend continues for EUR/CAD, which trades at a fresh 2 year low. A neutral BoC vs a dovish ECB that is set to announce a new stimulus package next week keeps the outlook bearish, particularly with momentum indicators also bearishly aligned. The cross has now edged below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.3017-1.6150 rise, which in turn opens-up a move towards the 1.45 handle.

    EUR/CAD Price Chart: Weekly Time Frame (Jan 2015 – Sep 2019)

    Canadian Dollar Technical Analysis Overview: USD/CAD, GBP/CAD, EUR/CAD



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USD/IDR Flat After Negative Consumer Confidence Report

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A pile of mixed IDR banknotesThe Indonesian rupiah was flat versus the US dollar after the negative consumer confidence report.

The Bank Indonesia reported that the Consumer Confidence Index was at 123.1 in August. That was a decline from July’s 124.8. Still, the report said that the index was “in the optimistic zone”.

USD/IDR was flat at 14,160 as of 8:15 GMT today.

If you have any questions, comments, or opinions regarding the Indonesian Rupiah, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

Earlier News About the Indonesian Rupiah:

  • USD/IDR Flat After Bank Indonesia Cuts Interest Rates (2019-08-22)
  • Indonesian Rupiah Climbs vs. US Dollar As Crude Oil Prices Drop (2018-12-19)
  • Indonesian Rupiah Stable After Central Bank Raises Interest Rates (2018-08-15)
  • Bank Indonesia May Intervene to Support Falling Rupiah (2018-04-25)
  • Indonesian Rupiah Weakens on Fed Interest Rate Hike Bets (2018-04-23)
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