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Forex - Dollar Down vs Havens, Up vs High-Yielders on Tariff News

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 The dollar fell against safe havens such as the yen and Swiss francin early trading in Europe Friday, but was higher against most other currencies after President Donald Trump announced a sharp escalation of the U.S.’s trade war with China.

The yen had its best day against the dollar in two years on Thursday after the announcement of a new 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of imports from China. By 3 AM ET (0700 GMT), it was at 106.95 to the dollar, having risen to its highest since April 2018 against the greenback earlier.

The dollar was also lower against the franc at 0.9880, as traders unwound carry trades in a broad risk-off move across all markets.

Trump’s announcement shattered a fragile truce with China over trade that had been hastily put in place ahead of the G20 summit a month ago. It represents a sharp escalation of the conflict, by extending tariffs to effectively all U.S. imports from China. As such, the risk of them feeding through to higher prices for U.S. consumers is markedly higher.

Analysts from the Peterson Institute in Washington estimated that the move will raise the average tariff on Chinese products to 21.5%, from barely 3% in 2017 when Trump took power.

Trump’s move came only a day after Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell had pointed to the trade dispute as the biggest single risk facing the U.S. and global economies – observations that drew criticism from Trump show said that Powell had “let us down.”

“Ironically the Fed’s easing gives the President the breathing space to now play hard ball,” Megan Greene, a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School, said via Twitter.

The dollar surged against high-yielders overnight, hitting a 10-year high against the Aussie and rising sharply against the Korean won and kiwi. It also surged 1% against the offshore Chinese yuan, although China’s central bank restrained the drop in the official rate.

The impact on the euro and British pound was less severe, although reports that Trump may make an announcement on trade with the EU later Friday added to the general sense of unease.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, hit its highest level since May 2017 at 98.697 overnight, before retracing to 98.105 in European trading.

The escalation of the trade war threatens to overshadow what would normally be the main event of the monthly economic calendar – the release of the U.S. labor market report for July. Nonfarm payroll growth is expected to have slowed to 160,000 from 224,000 in June.

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Inflation Report August 2019

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In order to maintain price stability, the Government has set the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) a target for the annual inflation rate of the Consumer Prices Index of 2%. Subject to that, the MPC is also required to support the Government’s economic policy, including its objectives for growth and employment. The Inflation Report is produced quarterly by Bank staff under the guidance of the members of the Monetary Policy Committee. It serves two purposes. First, its preparation provides a comprehensive and forward-looking framework for discussion among MPC members as an aid to our decision-making. Second, its publication allows us to share our thinking and explain the reasons for our decisions to those whom they affect. Although not every member will agree with every assumption on which our projections are based, the fan charts represent the MPC’s best collective judgement about the most likely paths for inflation, output and unemployment, as well as the uncertainties surrounding those central projections. This Report has been prepared and published by the Bank of England in accordance with section 18 of the Bank of England Act 1998. The Monetary Policy Committee: Mark Carney, Governor Ben Broadbent, Deputy Governor responsible for monetary policy Jon Cunliffe, Deputy Governor responsible for financial stability Dave Ramsden, Deputy Governor responsible for markets and banking Andrew Haldane Jonathan Haskel Michael Saunders Silvana Tenreyro Gertjan Vlieghe

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Get Ready for a Weaker U.S. Dollar... And Stronger Gold

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Unemployment in the U.S. is at a half-century low and the S&P 500 is trading at near-record highs. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve today trimmed interest rates for the first time since the financial crisis on stalled manufacturing growth and an anticipated world economic slowdown.

The easing cycle may be the catalyst gold needs to outperform the market and retrace its monster bull rally in the 2000s, according to Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone.

“Gold prices appear on a similar launchpad as 2001 when the Fed began an easing cycle,” McGlone writes in a note dated July 29. “The greatest bull market of this millennium so far began about the time of that first rate cut, following an extended gold-price downdraft and rally in the dollar.”

With the Fed having locked in a rate cut, the question now is: What happens in the months to come? Is this simply a one-off, or is it indeed the start of a new easing cycle?

Markets appear to have priced in three cuts by year-end. As a result, I would expect to see the dollar trade lower, which in turn should allow the price of gold—the classic anti-dollar—to soar.

As I shared with you earlier in the month, a weaker greenback is one of three “key ingredients” for a gold bull market, according to research firm Alpine Macro, the other two being a more accommodative Fed (check) and rising geopolitical risk

As Europe faces prospects that negative rates might become a long-term fixture in the euro region, concerns are mounting in the U.S. that a global slide toward negative yields could infect the market for Treasury securities, should the U.S. slip into a recession,” writes Guggenheim Investments Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd. “These concerns are well founded.”

Minerd reminds readers that, during economic slowdowns in the past, the Fed reduced rates by an average of 5.5 percentage points. Today, as you well know, we don’t have those 5.5 percentage points—unless rates were allowed to fall below zero.

Yields turning negative here in the U.S., as they have in Europe, Japan and elsewhere, would mark the start of a “paradigm shift” that billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio alluded to in a recent LinkedIn post.

According to Dalio, lower-for-longer rates and other unorthodox monetary policies “will produce more negative real and nominal returns that will lead investors to increasingly prefer alternative forms of money (e.g., gold) or other storeholds of wealth.”

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US Dollar Rallies on Better-Than-Expected Q2 GDP

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The US dollar is rallying against a basket of currencies to close out the trading week, driven by a better-than-expected but slower than usual second-quarter economic report. The gross domestic product cooled down in the April-to-June period, but there were some bright spots in the overall report, including a surge in consumer spending.

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the gross domestic product advanced a 2.1% annual clip in the second quarter, down from 3.1% in the first three months of 2019. This was higher than the market forecast of 1.9%.

Despite the disappointment behind the report, a deep dive into the numbers do paint somewhat of a positive portrait of the US economy from a consumer standpoint. In the April-to-June period, consumer spending surged 4.3%, driven by greater automobile, food, and apparel purchases. But it was not good news for businesses because fixed investment slipped 0.8%, investment dropped 11%, spending on equipment edged up just 1%, and outlays fell 1.5%.

Researchers say that if inventories would have remained neutral instead of declining $44.3 billion, then the economy would have expanded at a 3% rate in the second quarter.

Elsewhere in the report, the trade deficit impacted GDP as imports decreased and exports soared 5.2%. Federal government spending spiked 5%. Inflation, using the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, clocked in at a 1.4% pace year over year. 

Researchers say that if inventories would have remained neutral instead of declining $44.3 billion, then the economy would have expanded at a 3% rate in the second quarter.

Elsewhere in the report, the trade deficit impacted GDP as imports decreased and exports soared 5.2%. Federal government spending spiked 5%. Inflation, using the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, clocked in at a 1.4% pace year over year.

Since Federal Reserve officials have made public their concern about a potential slowdown, the latest economic figures could push the Eccles Building to impose a 25-basis-point cut to interest rates from the current target range of 2.25% to 2.50%. More than half the market anticipates two rate cuts this year, according to the CME Group FedWatch tool.

Although this report does suggest that the US economy might expand more slowly in the second half of 2019, some financial institutions believe that this is just a slight bump in the road. Goldman Sachs is prognosticating that growth will return to normal in the second half.

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China gives up two of its best-kept forex reserve secrets

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  • The country’s holdings of foreign currency generated an annual average return of 3.68 per cent from 2005 to 2014
  • By the end of 2014, US dollar assets accounted for 58 per cent of China’s total foreign exchange reserves, down from 79 per cent in 2005

China has for the first time disclosed its return on investment of its foreign exchange reserves and the share of US dollar-denominated assets in the stockpile.

Foreign exchange reserves generated an annual average return of 3.68 per cent from 2005 to 2014, according to the 2018 annual report released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (Safe) on Sunday. The agency did not provide more recent figures.

By the end of 2014, US dollar assets accounted for 58 per cent of China’s total reserves, down from 79 per cent in 2005, the administration said, adding that the share of the assets in the US currency was lower than the global average of 65 per cent in 2014.

“The currency structure of China’s foreign exchange reserves has been increasingly diversified, and it is more diversified than the international average,” 

GBP Slumps as CBI Warns Neither UK nor EU are Ready for No-Deal

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GBP TALKING POINTS:

  • CBI warns neither UK nor EU are ready for the disruption that a no-deal would cause
  • GBP faces further losses as Boris Johnson appoints hard-line Brexiteers as cabinet members to ensure Brexit is delivered by October 31
  • BoE expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.75% on Thursday as Brexit uncertainty continues

Increasing talks of a no-deal Brexit are not boding well for the pound as GBPUSD fell to 28-month lows and EURGBP surpassed the psychological 0.90 line. Since Johnson was appointed as PM last Tuesday the pound has fallen 1.5% against both the dollar and the euro, as he formed his cabinet with hard-line Brexiteer members, putting everyone on notice that he is serious about his “do or die” stance on Brexit.

In recent news, Business Industry experts CBI have warned the government that neither the UK nor the EU are prepared to face the consequences of a no-deal Brexit, where almost every sector of the EU and UK would face disruption. The report suggests that despite UK businesses having spent billions of pounds already on contingency plans in case of a hard Brexit, the uncertainty and lack of clarity about dates and costs has left most of them feeling like there are not enough measures in place to counteract the disruption.


But instead of pressuring the PM to work together with the EU to achieve amendments to the current deal, Boris Johnson could use this information as leverage to continue his “deal or no-deal stance” if he believes that the EU will give in to pressure because they are also considered to be unprepared for a hard Brexit. But given the repeated warnings by EU commissioners that there is no possible amendment that can be made to the current withdrawal deal, it is unlikely that a new deal will be reached before the October 31 deadline.

Jean-Claude Juncker told Boris Johnson last week that the EU would analyse any proposals put forth by the UK as long as they were compatible with the terms set out in the agreement initially negotiated with Theresa May. The main point of divergence between both sides of the agreement is the Irish backstop, which would leave the UK abiding by EU rules unless another arrangement is found. Boris Johnson has said that the only way to avoid a no-deal Brexit would be to abolish the backstop from the agreement, which the EU has rejected.

The Bank of England will release its inflation report on Thursday ahead of its interest rate decision with expectations that rates will remain unchanged at 0.75% as MPC officials stick to their wait and see what happens with Brexit before adjusting its monetary policy rhetoric, given that both inflation and the jobs market are behaving well.


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Top 5 Forex Trading Strategies

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Follow the basic things and earn amazing returns in the forex market

Being successful as a forex trader is not a child’s play,but by understanding the changes in the market it becomes very easy to handle the situations wisely. In order to make money one must understand the complexity of the market and following the suggestion of the technical analyst one can win the market. Forex trading is a form of foreign exchange and is a huge trading world where people can always make money. The exchange rates owe a huge impact on the returns as there is no fixed rate due to regular changes. The market is not very much stable and earning handsome returns is not very easy for people who invest without noticing the changes.

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How to make money in forex trading isnot easy and people interested inwinning the market need tofollow a specific strategy.As there are different factors which owe a huge impact on the currency trading it is a must to seek the guidance of an expert whoguides the forex traders in the right manner. The volatility of the market makestraders lose a lot with negligence and gaining profitsis easyfor one who follow the market without any fail.Though the forex trading market is not much volatile there are changes whichare to be handled with a great care as this is the only way to manage the risks.Withstanding the tough situations ofthe marketfollowing the specific strategy supports a lot in earningamazing returns and making moneywith short term or long-term investments becomes easy.

1.       Maintain simplicity

Keep the trading simple byinvesting in the right areaas gaining quality returns is possible only with theactual trading strategy. The forex trading strategy which is simple supports investors to avoid risks and enjoy a unique trading style with handsome returns.By noticing the fluctuation in the market, one can take quick decisions and even earn better results.Maintaining the investment low,the chance of losing the investments is very less and with reliable approach trading becomes a great fun.

2.       Currency pairing

One needs tounderstand the currency pairingand thenchoose the currency.Forex market is just the trading market thatsupports in exchanging the foreign currencies. The exact pair of currencyhelps inwinning the trade properly andby choosing the right pair the risk of losing theinvestments reduces to a great extent.Trading is never simple and with a systematic trading planand the right currency pairing one can easily win the returns.Learning currency pairing and choosing the right pair supports alot in managing the riskand balancethe trading.

3.       Don’t overthink

Avoid overthinking as the forex trading requires patience.Increasing the chance of gaining profits is possible with the investors who choose the techniqueconsidering the type of investment. The short-term investment varies from that of the longtermoneandachievingpositive resultsis possible by watching the market closely.

4.       Charts

The investor who works according to the charts can easily predict the future price movements. The expert analyst considers the happenings and then suggest the right way to step with specific time frames. Preventing the fall of returns is possible with the support of the charts which are designed by the person who understands the fundamentals of the economics.Along with this one need to follow the trend while investing.In order to make a safe move every trader need to know the happenings and then earn profits.

5.       An ideal way

Avoid complex method as the complicated terms confuse the investor and are not good enough to earn returns. No single method allows people to stay successful in the market and earning returns with consistent rules help in winning market. People who trade with discipline never lose in making nice profits and can even earn returns as a beginner.

Following the unique strategy, one can win the market and make money within specific time frames as the effective trading strategies stand as a powerful tool offering quality returns.Earning highly effective returns is easy for the individual who depend on the efficient forex trading strategies that are suggested by the expert analysts.So, seek the support of the guidance of an analyst and earn handsome returns as the expert deliver genuine information and the right strategy suitable for your need.


5 dangerous myths about the forex markets.

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Know the truth and handle the consequences with discipline

Investing in the market is not easy and people in a few situations fall for the myths which make them lose the investments.A few things come up without any reason and people start moving ahead following those misconceptions. In a few cases there is a chance of losing the investments as these are not true and there is a chance of winning the market if the investor is lucky. As luck always, do nonsupport in winning the market one must first identify the myths and the simple way to face it. Improve the chance of winning the market by enhancing your skills which are extremely useful in earning quality returns. Forex trading requires various skills and thorough knowledge as this involves the currency of various countries and several aspects. In order to enjoy the market by earning really good profits it is must to invest with discipline and follow a worthy strategy that offer success. By recognizing the myths,one can stay with the truth and then handle the consequences of the market.

1.     

  It’s the game of rich

No forex trade is not just for the rich people.This is one of the myth which spoils the chance of earning returns in the market. People who are interested in earning quality results by investing in the market need not have excess savings but need to have addiction. With quality research and proper homework every trader irrespective of their status can gain returns as market is place of amazing opportunities.There is no limitation for an investor and one who keep a track of the political happening and changes in economy can win returns in the forex market.

2.      

Forex trading is high risky or too easy

A majority of the forex traders believe that the market is either dangerous to invest or simple one to gain wonderful returns. But both the ideas are not completely true. The chance of losing the investments is seen with people who invest neglecting a few crucial aspects.The market offers a chance to earn quality returns to the investors who deal with the situations in a planned manner.So, people planning to earn handsome returns need to invest in the currency market with a strategy. It is true that this is less volatile and a predictable market when compared to the share market.

3

Follow economy

The economy changes play a role in gaining returns in the forex market, but it is not true that it is only the economic changes that change the chance of returns.The political happening seven effect the returns in every market and following the news helps in gaining smooth returns.Keep a note of the economic and political fluctuations and watch the time closely which makes investors make easy money.

4.       

No time limits

There is a time to invest and gain returns in the forex market and one such myth is that this is open for investor throughout the day. It is not true and the market so not invite investors around the clock as the day is divided in to specific sessions. Market functions only during the particular time and one can invest and gain returns within a certain time limit.So, keep a watch on the time and then start investing in the forex market as this is one convenient place to start career and make money.

5.       

Take quick decisions

There is no guarantee that quick decisions work positively and people planning to be part of the trade need to stay cautious while making decisions. One must have a realistic approach and investors who are planning to have right returns must underhand the situations and hen step ahead.Quick decisions do not support in earning positive results all the time and in order to avoid the unexpected issues it is must to be patient and control emotions while decision making

Though the above seem to be real are not actually true and people who tend to look at the market in this aspect may face unpredictable consequences in the predictable market. With the support of an analyst it is not tough to earn better returns and gain support from experts who use charts and other systematic procedure in winning the market. 

Why you should Learn Forex Trading?

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Trading Forex is not as easy as many people will tell you. A simple instance will help you to understand the complex nature of Forex trading. In stock market traders find it difficult to keep track of individual companies then it is quite easily understandable how difficult it will be to keep track of the economy of a country. In Forex trading you have to have to do exactly that. You have to keep track of the economy of the countries whose currencies you are trading. So it is evident that you need to learn Forex trading as it is all together a different ball game. Here we are presenting some of the most prominent reasons that stress on the effectiveness of learning Forex trading.

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Learning the basics of Forex – If you are new to world of Forex trading you need to start learning from the scratch. You need to begin with the basics of Forex trading unless you can not have a primary idea of Forex trading. You need to know the process of Forex trading – how to read the Forex quotes, how to execute the trades and how profit and loss is determined at the Forex market and so on. Without this preliminary idea of the Forex trading you can not start investing in the Forex trading.

 

Deciding of Forex trading plan – When you are trading at the Forex market you need to have a Forex trading strategy and for deciding that trading plan you need to have comprehensive idea of the Forex trading process and the current market trends. Without a well defined trading plan you will have no clue what to do at the Forex market. An effective learning process will help you to have an idea of the Forex trading and that is very much necessary for deciding on your trading plan.

 

Getting accustomed with Forex Trading – While you learn Forex trading you will get gradually accustomed with the Forex trading. This is will help you start with Forex trading and eventually become an experienced trader. It is true that until you start investing in the Forex market and have a first hand experience of the Forex market, you can not have complete conception of what Forex trading actually the learning process will help you to initially get accustomed with the Forex trading.

 

Analyzing Forex market trends – Once you have the basic idea of the Forex market, you should start learning about the advanced techniques of Forex trading. This will include the fundamental as well as technical analysis of the global currency market. To predict the future trends in the Forex market it is important that you have the skills to fundamentally and technically analyze the present market trends and these two techniques required specialized knowledge. So it is essential that you learn these methods properly to flawlessly predict the future of the currency pairs and make profit from Forex trading.

 

Using Forex robots – Forex robot is a vital part of Forex trading. These robots are basically software programs that are designed to keep track of the market trends and execute trades independently. You need to learn the techniques to customize the trading indicators on the basis of which the robot will do the trading on your behalf.

 

All said and done you must always remember that you can not learn everything in one day of in a short span of time. To learn Forex trading you have to spend considerable amount of time and have patience to learn the complete process. In fact a good trader is always a good leaner and the learning process is never ending and that is why as you keep trading, you get more knowledge of Forex trading. 

 

As a trader you must always remember that learning of the Forex trading is just the beginning and until and unless you apply your knowledge in the Forex trading, all your learning is a waste. So in every step that you take in your Forex market journey should be judged with the knowledge and experience that you have gained from the learning process. That will be the success of all the effort that you have put in while learning Forex trading.

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