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FOREX-Dollar index hits two-year high, Aussie falls after RBA cut

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The U.S. dollar rose to its highest in more than two years versus a basket of currencies on Tuesday before data that is forecast to show the U.S. manufacturing sector returned to growth, which would ease concern about the impact of the trade war with China.

The euro teetered near its lowest in more than two years against the greenback before data expected to show European inflation has remained tepid, suggesting euro zone policy will remain accommodative for some time.

The Australian dollar edged lower after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates and expressed concern about job growth, while the New Zealand dollar hit a new four-year low as weak business sentiment continued to weigh on the kiwi.

A host of economic data and comments from central bankers this week will set the tone for major currencies as traders try to determine how far policymakers will go to bolster growth.

"Economic data can be supportive of the dollar, and the Federal Reserve's comments are not as dovish as some people think," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.

"An RBA rate cut and the risk of a stagnant European economy both should be positive for the greenback."

The dollar index .DXY against a basket of six major currencies rose 0.10% to 99.479, after briefly touching the highest since May 12, 2017.

The dollar rose 0.17% to 108.26 yen JPY=EBS , close to its strongest level in almost two weeks.

The yen remained weak after the Bank of Japan's tankan showed business confidence in the third quarter slid to its lowest in six years. was subdued in Asian time because China's financial markets are closed until Monday for public holidays. Financial markets in Hong Kong were also closed on Tuesday for a holiday.

The Institute for Supply Management's measure of U.S. manufacturing activity later on Tuesday is forecast to show a return to expansion in September, but just barely.

In August, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in three years due to the U.S.-China trade war.

Several Fed policymakers are scheduled to speak this week, but traders said they will focus most on comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday for hints about the direction of U.S. monetary policy.

The Fed has cut interest rates twice this year, but there are signs that it is reluctant to ease policy further because the jobs market remains strong.

The euro fell 0.09% to $1.0889 EUR=EBS , close to its lowest since May 12, 2017.

Data due on Tuesday are forecast to show consumer prices in the euro zone rose an annual 1.0% in September, unchanged from the previous month and well below the European Central Bank's target.

Annual inflation in Germany, Europe's largest economy, slowed to the lowest in almost three years, data on Monday showed. ECB unleashed a new round of monetary easing measures on Sept. 12, but there is growing concern that the central bank is reaching the limits of what it can achieve and the burden will fall to eurozone governments to boost fiscal spending.

The Australian dollar briefly rose after the RBA cut its cash rate to a record low of 0.75%, as expected. However, the Aussie surrendered those gains to trade down 0.21% at $0.6742 AUD=D3 .

The RBA said forward-looking indicators suggest employment growth is likely to slow, which could bolster expectations that it will cut rates again by early next year. New Zealand dollar fell to a new four-year low of $0.6238 NZD=D3 . The kiwi has taken a hit as weakening business confidence bolstered expectations for monetary easing.

German inflation slows unexpectedly in September

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Dollar stands tall as investors seek shelter

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The dollar found broad support on Monday as global political uncertainty and fears over a widening of the Sino-U.S trade war kept investors in safe harbours ahead of a slew of global economic indicators this week.

The greenback was steady against most major currencies. It held firm on the Japanese yen at 108.93 per dollar and sterling at $1.2287, while easing very slightly against the euro to $1.0932.

It gained against riskier, trade-exposed currencies such as the Australian dollar and the Chinese yuan. The biggest loser was the New Zealand dollar, which fell half a percentage point as business confidence hit its weakest in more than 11 years.

"Risk-off sentiment is prevailing in the market," said Anthony Doyle, global cross-asset specialist at fund manager Fidelity International in Sydney, citing U.S. political turmoil and Brexit as looming worries, besides the trade war.

"There's a lot of uncertainty out there," he said.

In Asian hours, traders mostly shrugged off news that the Trump administration was considering de-listing Chinese companies from U.S. stock markets after the reports were hosed down by Treasury officials.

Elsewhere, factory activity surveys in China suggested there were some signs of improvement this month, though analysts believe the gains cannot be sustained and forecast further economic weakness.

In Australia, forecasts for a rate cut on Tuesday firmed with gathering economic gloom. Markets are pricing a better than 75% chance the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce its cash rate for a third time this year.

German inflation, British economic growth and U.S. manufacturing indicators are all due later on Monday, with U.S. employment figures at the end of the week. Anything short of expectations poses a risk to fragile sentiment.

Against a basket of currencies (DXY) the dollar edged higher to 99.165.

The New Zealand dollar dropped as far as $0.6257, very close to a four-year low, as a survey showed sour business sentiment and made a case for a rate cut.

The Australian dollar also drifted lower to $0.6756 on expectations of monetary easing.

With markets largely baking in another rate cut, further moves in the Aussie will likely be driven by the RBA's tone and outlook, said Chris Weston, head of research at brokerage Pepperstone Group in Melbourne.

Traders are expecting a lull in trade-war headlines as China takes a week-long holiday from Tuesday, which marks the 70th anniversary of the People's Republic of China.

China's yuan held steady at 7.1219 per dollar.

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U.S. Dollar Falls After Posting Biggest Gains in Three Months on Trade Hopes

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The U.S. dollar gained on Thursday in Asia on renewed Sino-U.S. trade hopes.

The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies were down 0.2% to 98.502 by 12:20 AM ET (04:20 GMT).

Sino-U.S. trade hopes reignited after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested an agreement with China might come sooner than anyone thinks, although he didn't offer many specifics.

Just on Tuesday, Trump accused China of unfair trade practices in a speech to the General Assembly at the United Nations in New York.

"It's a pretty decent move really," said Nick Twidale, co-founder of Sydney-based trade finance provider Xchainge, in a Reuters report.

"Markets shrug these things off very, very quickly and we move on to the next stuff. As it moves on, it's going to be interesting, but we have to go back to the fundamentals and fundamentals are going to push the dollar higher over time."

The U.S. dollar recorded its sharpest daily gain in three months following the news, before giving up some of its gains today in Asian trade.

The GBP/USD pair gained 0.2% to 1.2374 today after falling overnight. Prospect of early U.K. elections with just five weeks to go until the Brexit deadline was cited as a headwind for the pound.

On Wednesday, U.K. Attorney-General Geoffrey Cox said a motion for a general election will be brought to parliament “shortly.”

He made the remarks a day after the Supreme Court’s ruling that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s five week suspension of parliament in the run-up to Brexit was unlawful.

The AUD/USD pair inched up 0.2%, while the NZD/USD pair climbed 0.6% on continued upward momentum after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday but said there is scope if it sees the need for it to boost economic growth.

The USD/JPY pair inched down 0.1%.

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Forex - Dollar Holds Steady on Trade Hopes, But Growth Fears Weigh

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The U.S. dollar remained broadly supported on Tuesday after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin confirmed U.S.-China trade talks will resume next month, but concerns about slowing global growth continued to weigh on market sentiment.

Against a basket of currencies the dollar edged up to 98.28 by 2:37 AM ET (6:37GMT).

"The U.S. dollar is rising by default rather than anything U.S.-specific," said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney, adding that volumes were low as traders mostly kept to the sidelines waiting for news.

"Trade is never far from the markets' radar, but I think currency markets are increasingly expecting (U.S-China tensions) to be protracted, I think optimism has dissipated."

Mnuchin said Monday that trade discussions were scheduled in two weeks and that he and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer would meet Chinese Vice Premier Liu He.

The dollar was little changed against the yen at 107.53, while the euro was trading at 1.0992, not far from a 28-month low of 1.0926 touched earlier this month.

The single currency fell 0.2% on Monday after data showing that a German manufacturing recession deepened unexpectedly in September and growth in the service sector lost momentum, adding to worries over the outlook for the wider Eurozone.

The British pound was hovering near one-week lows at 1.2435 ahead of a U.K. Supreme Court ruling on whether Prime Minister Boris Johnson acted unlawfully when he suspended parliament just weeks before Brexit.

The outcome of the case could have implications for Johnson’s plans to pull the U.K. out of the European Union on Oct. 31.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars were steady ahead of a speech by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Phil Lowe, with the market expecting a dovish tone after weak jobs data last week underlined expectations for a rate cut.

Both currencies sat near three-week lows, with the Aussie at 0.6774 and the kiwi at 0.6295.

"We think Lowe will provide a strong signal that the RBA is ready to cut rates again, endorsing our view for a 25bp cut in October," said Tapas Strickland, a director of economics and markets at National Australia Bank in Sydney.


Dollar finds support as trade talks stay on track, euro nurses losses

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The euro nursed losses on Tuesday after weak readings on German manufacturing rattled confidence, while the dollar found broad support as investors looked for signs of progress from Sino-U.S. trade negotiations.

The single currency (EUR=) shed 0.2% overnight after a survey showed European business activity stalling, and in fact going backwards in powerhouse Germany where a manufacturing recession deepened.

It held around $1.0990 in Asian hours, while the dollar edged higher against the Japanese yen to buy 107.58 yen and held its ground on the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Against a basket of currencies (DXY), the dollar edged higher to 98.621.

"The U.S. dollar is rising by default rather than anything U.S.-specific," said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney, adding that volumes were low as traders mostly kept to the sidelines waiting for news.

"Trade is never far from the markets' radar, but I think currency markets are increasingly expecting (U.S-China tensions) to be protracted, I think optimism has dissipated."

The British pound wallowed at $1.2431, near a one-week low, ahead of a UK Supreme Court ruling due around 0930 GMT.

The court will rule on whether Prime Minister Boris Johnson acted unlawfully when he suspended parliament just weeks before Brexit, with the case's outcome potentially complicating his plans to lead his country out of the European Union next month.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars were steady ahead of a speech by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Phil Lowe at 1005 GMT, with the market expecting a dovish tone after weak jobs data last week lifted expectations of an imminent rate cut.

Both currencies sat near three-week lows, with the Aussie buying $0.6772 and the kiwi $0.6290.

"We think Lowe will provide a strong signal that the RBA is ready to cut rates again, endorsing our view for a 25bp cut in October," said Tapas Strickland, a director of economics and markets at National Australia Bank in Sydney.

"Any comments on the scope for unconventional policy will also be critical for the market."

The Bank of Japan's governor Haruhiko Kuroda is also due to speak today, around 0530 GMT.

Meanwhile a delicate upbeat mood broadly held, with Chinese importers' decision to buy 10 boatloads of U.S. soybeans seen as a positive sign leading in to trade negotiations next month.

China's yuan strengthened very slightly to 7.1056 in offshore trade.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told Fox Business that discussions were scheduled in two weeks and that he and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer would meet Chinese Vice Premier Liu He.

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US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: The Greenback faces initial support at the 55-day SMA at 97.89

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  • DXY is extending the consolidative theme above the 98.00 handle following another interest rate cut at the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.
  • The immediate bullish view stays uncompromised for the time being, sustained by the 55-day SMA at 97.89 and Friday’s low at 97.86 .
  • If the recovery gathers traction, the index should then target last week’s peak at 99.10.

DXY daily chart

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DOLLAR INDEX SPOT


OVERVIEW
Today last price98.32
Today Daily Change34
Today Daily Change %-0.26
Today daily open98.58
 
TRENDS
Daily SMA2098.4
Daily SMA5097.99
Daily SMA10097.63
Daily SMA20097.16
 
LEVELS
Previous Daily High98.69
Previous Daily Low98.2
Previous Weekly High99.11
Previous Weekly Low97.99
Previous Monthly High99.02
Previous Monthly Low97.21
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%98.5
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%98.39
Daily Pivot Point S198.29
Daily Pivot Point S298
Daily Pivot Point S397.8
Daily Pivot Point R198.78
Daily Pivot Point R298.98
Daily Pivot Point R399.27

Forex - Yen Rises against Dollar After BOJ Holds

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The yen rose from a seven week low against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy on hold, in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s overnight decision to cut rates.

The dollar was down 0.44% to 107.95 yen by 2:32 AM ET (6:32 GMT) after the BoJ kept policy on hold, as expected, but signaled it could ease next month.

Central banks around the world have been loosening policy to counter the risks of low inflation and recession.

The Fed cut interest rates for a second time this year on Wednesday in a 7-3 vote. The rate cut was widely expected, but the split vote has raised some concern about predicting the future path of monetary policy.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described U.S. prospects as "favourable" and the rate move as "insurance." He did not rule out future cuts, but his remarks were not as dovish as markets had hoped for.

The euro rose 0.1% against the dollar to 1.1045, while the British pound was little changed at 1.2468.

Investors are awaiting a Bank of England policy meeting later Thursday. The BOE is expected to  keep rates unchanged, but uncertainty over Brexit has complicated the monetary policy outlook.

The Australian dollar was down 0.6% at 0.6786 after data overnight showing that the country’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rose in August, underlining the case for additional stimulus by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

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Euro to Pound Sterling Exchange Rate Struggles to Sustain Gains despite Stronger Eurozone Data

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Euro to Pound Exchange Rate Floundering as Investors Unwind Bets against Sterling

Tuesday’s stronger than expected Eurozone data wasn’t enough to keep the Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate climbing, as the Pound (GBP) remained generally appealing while investors unwound bets against it.

Since last week, hopes that a softer Brexit was still possible have led to a big Pound recovery. EUR/GBP fell over a pence last week and closed at the level of 0.8860.

This week, the Euro (EUR) has attempted to rebound but has been unable as investors are hesitant to sell Sterling too far for now.

While EUR/GBP has avoided last night’s three month low of 0.8844, the pair has only rebounded slightly and still trends low near the level of 0.8864.

Euro (EUR) Exchange Rates Unappealing despite Signs of Improvement in Eurozone Sentiment

The Euro has remained largely unappealing overall this week, as markets are still anxious about the possibility of Germany being in recession. Signs of optimism in yesterday’s Eurozone data were not enough to boost the shared currency against a stronger Pound.

Tuesday saw the publication of ZEW’s September economic sentiment index results. While Germany’s current conditions print was even weaker than expected, the outlooks were actually less dire than predicted.

German economic sentiment lightened to -22.5 and the overall Eurozone’s sentiment index lightened from -43.6 to -22.4.

Still, continued concern about the overall health of Germany’s economy, as well as uncertainty over the European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest monetary policy plans limited demand for the Euro.

Pound (GBP) Exchange Rates Sturdy as Investors Hope to Avoid Missing another Rally

Speculation that the Pound could continue a rally that started at the end of last week has kept investors from selling the British currency much so far this week.

Sterling has been highly volatile, as on Monday it briefly shed some of Friday’s gains, but rebounded and climbed again on Tuesday afternoon.

Analysts have said that the main question for the Pound outlook was whether no-deal Brexit was really off the table or not.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has insisted that while he will not break the law, Britain will be exiting the EU on the 31st of October with or without a deal.

This, as well as warnings from EU officials that no-deal Brexit was a serious risk, kept no-deal Brexit fears on the table, keeping a lid on the Pound’s potential for gains.

Euro to Pound (EUR/GBP) Exchange Rate Awaits Central Bank Speculation and News

While developments in UK politics and Brexit will remain the primary influence for Pound movement, expected central bank news and likely speculation will be highly influential for the Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate over the coming days.

This evening’s Federal Reserve policy decision could cause some Euro movement if it surprises investors, due to the Euro’s negative correlation with the US Dollar (USD).

It will be followed by the Bank of England’s (BoE) own September policy decision tomorrow.

The BoE is not expected to show any notable shifts in tone, but if its stances have been shifted at all by data or Brexit news then the Pound could of course see some reaction.European Central Bank (ECB) speculation could influence the Euro’s movement as well, depending on today’s upcoming inflation rate stats. Overall, central bank and Brexit news is likely to influence the Euro to Pound (EUR/GBP) exchange rate.

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MARKET WRAP: Sensex up 83 pts, Nifty ends at 10,841; realty, metals surge

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Benchmark indices moved higher in Wednesday's noon trade after trading in a range-bound manner for a major part of the day. 
 

The S&P BSE Sensex gained 135 points, or 0.37 per cent, to 36,620 levels. Bajaj Finance, Tata Steel, State Bank of India, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Asian Paints were the top gainers in the Sensex pack. The broader Nifty50 index was up 40 points, or 0.36 per cent, to 10,860 levels.

The Nifty sectoral indices, except Nifty FMCG, were trading in the green. Nifty Metal, Nifty PSU Bank, and Nifty Realty indexes all gained over 1 per cent each.

In the broader market, the S&P BSE MidCap index was ruling at 13,460 levels, up 78 points, or 0.6 per cent, and the S&P BSE SmallCap index was hovering around 12,900 levels, up 48 points, or 0.37 per cent.

GLOBAL MARKETS

Caution ahead of an expected US interest rate cut kept wider financial marketsin tight ranges.


European shares are expected to tread water, with pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 futures shedding 0.06 per cent, German DAX futures losing 0.1 per cent and FTSE futures down 0.14 per cent. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan ticked up 0.14 per cent while Japan’s Nikkei dipped 0.18 per cent after 10 straight days of gains and China’s blue-chip share index rose 0.52 per cent.


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03:46 PM
Nifty Realty among top gainers on the NSE today


Key indices on NSE

03:44 PM
 

RIL, SBI, ITC contribute most to Sensex's gain today

03:43 PM
 

Sensex heat map


GBP/AUD Slips from Three-Week High as UK Inflation Disappoints

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GBP/AUD Exchange Rate Muted as UK Inflation Misses Expectations

The Pound Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate is stuck in a narrow range this morning, in response to a weaker-than-expected CPI release from the UK.

At the time of writing the GBP/AUD exchange rate is currently trading at around AU$1.8218, virtually unchanged from the morning’s opening levels but down from a high of AU$1.8259.

UK Inflation Slows, BoE Rate Decision to Come

The Pound (GBP) is facing headwinds this morning as markets react to the UK’s weaker-than-expected consumer price index (CPI).                        

According to data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), UK inflation slowed from 2.1% to 1.7% in August, missing expectations for a modest slide to 1.9% and falling to its worst levels since December 2016.The drop in inflation is welcome news for consumers, as combined with the recent surge in wage growth, which struck 4% in July, consumer spending power is on the rise.

However, the slump in inflation could put more pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to consider lowering interest rates.

The BoE will conclude its latest policy meeting tomorrow, and while no policy changes are expected from the bank this month, could the slowdown in inflation push the BoE towards lowering interest rates after Brexit?

Could a Rise in Unemployment Prompt another Rate Cut from the RBA Next Month?

Coming up later tonight the publication of Australia’s jobs report could see the Australian Dollar (AUD) continue to give ground.

Data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is expected to report unemployment rose from 5.2% to 5.3% in August as employment growth slowed from 41,100 to just 10,000.

The Reserve Bank of Australian (RBA) has repeatedly stressed that it views domestic labour figures as a key gauge of the health of the Australian economy.

Another rise in unemployment is likely to put more pressure on the RBA to continue easing monetary policy, with the minutes from the bank’s most recent policy meeting appearing to leave the door open for an October cut.

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