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CAD Analysis and Talking Points
- USD/CAD | Momentum Shifts to the Downside, 50DMA Eyed
- GBP/CAD | Bounce Fades, Brexit Keeps Cross Volatile
- EUR/CAD | Key Fibonacci Support Breaks
- USD/CAD | MOMENTUM SHIFTS TO THE DOWNSIDE, 50DMA EYED
USD/CAD saw its sharpest fall since January 30th as a neutral statement from the BoC had been perceived as hawkish relative to expectations, while oil prices had also surged over 4%. However, while momentum indicators may well be pointing to further downside, eyes are on whether trend signals confirm the recent shift in momentum. On the downside, support is situated at the 50DMA at 1.3188, in which a closing break below raises risk of a 1.3115 test (61.8% Fib of 1.2780-1.3660 rise). Looking ahead, market participants will be paying attention to comments from the BoC Deputy Governor at 1700BST, while external factors regarding key US data will also be in focus.
USD/CAD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (May 2019 – Sep 2019)
GBP/CAD | BOUNCE FADES, BREXIT KEEPS CROSS VOLATILE
Despite the recent bid in GBP/CAD, the 50DMA situated at 1.6230 has held firm, thus curbing the upside in the cross. That said, as will be the case with many GBP pairs, Brexit induced volatility is likely to cause sizeable swings. On the topside, key resistance resides at 1.6300-25, which has previously limited gains in the pair. Trend signals are relatively weak, emphasising the fact that the cross is lacking firm direction, as such, the cross may stay within a 1.60-1.63 range.
GBP/CAD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Feb 2019 – Sep 2019)
EUR/CAD | KEY FIBONACCI SUPPORT BREAKS
The downtrend continues for EUR/CAD, which trades at a fresh 2 year low. A neutral BoC vs a dovish ECB that is set to announce a new stimulus package next week keeps the outlook bearish, particularly with momentum indicators also bearishly aligned. The cross has now edged below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.3017-1.6150 rise, which in turn opens-up a move towards the 1.45 handle.
EUR/CAD Price Chart: Weekly Time Frame (Jan 2015 – Sep 2019)
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