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Fuel demand in COVID-hit India plunges in May

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Gasoline and diesel sales over May 1-15 fell by about 20%, while jet fuel consumption slumped by nearly 38%, versus April 1-15 levels, the data compiled by the state refiners showed.

Rates had already crossed the Rs 100-mark in several cities in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra and with the latest increase, prices in Mumbai too were inching towards that level.

Gasoline and diesel sales over May 1-15 fell by about 20%, while jet fuel consumption slumped by nearly 38%, versus April 1-15 levels, the data compiled by the state refiners showed.

"Trucking activity is almost half of what it used to be in normal times," SP Singh, a senior fellow at Indian Foundation of Transport Research & Training, said.

"Most of the business that they were getting from small and medium business has been hit due to lockdowns," Singh said, adding only a fraction of 5.5 million trucks is currently running on roads due to lockdowns.

Indian fuel demand had recovered to near pre-COVID levels in March but has been declining since April was given restrictions amid a staggering spike in infections to record highs.

India on Monday reported 281,386 new coronavirus infections over the last 24 hours, while deaths rose by 4,106. The South Asian nation's total caseload is 24.97 million with the death toll at 274,390, health ministry data showed.

Federal health officials have warned against any complacency over a "plateauing" in the rise of infections and urged states to strengthen their medical infrastructure and workforce.

India's demand for transportation fuels is expected to witness a sharper slump in May due to more impending restrictions, analysts say.

Due to a decline in local fuel sales, Indian refiners have started cutting crude processing and import State companies - Indian Oil Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, and Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd - own about 90% of India's retail fuel outlets.

Domestic fuel sales by state retailers over May 1-15, however, were higher versus a year earlier when there was a nationwide lockdown.
Article Source:- Moneycontrol


Growth versus inflation tussle will dictate market trends going ahead

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Humongous liquidity infusion by the leading central banks (above $10 trillion) should have created inflation. But inflation had ceased to be a monetary phenomenon in the developed world for more than a decade now.At any given time the market will be pulled up or down by positive and negative triggers. That's why markets are volatile. When the positive triggers are dominant a bullish trend will be formed, and when the negative triggers weigh over positives, markets will turn structurally bearish. Even though long-term trends are established by GDP and earnings growth, in the short to medium-term, other factors like liquidity, interest rates, exchange rates and expectations around these macros can exert an undue influence on the market.

The important question now is: How are the markets likely to trend, going forward? Let's get the economy-market construct in perspective. In 2020 the global economy slipped into one of the worst recessions in modern history, triggered by unprecedented lockdowns all over the world. Panic reaction in markets in March 2020 led to one of the sharpest crashes in market history. But, starting April, markets started to climb up steadily aided by the unprecedented liquidity infusion by the leading central banks of the world, led by the Fed. The Discovery of vaccines to contain the pandemic and Fed's declared ultra-loose monetary stance to keep interest rates near zero through the end of 2023 gave fodder to the bulls which kept on charging. Globally markets scaled newer peaks. The economy-market disconnect was conspicuous; but the organized sector, which the market represents, started doing very well, justifying the bulls.

Humongous liquidity infusion by the leading central banks (above $10 trillion) should have created inflation. But inflation had ceased to be a monetary phenomenon in the developed world for more than a decade now. Instead of pushing up the prices of goods and services, liquidity pushed up the prices of assets like stocks.

But low CPI inflation and high asset price inflation cannot sustain for long. Even though the Federal Reserve declared that it will keep rates unchanged till the end of 2023 and that it will tolerate higher inflation, the markets started fearing the return of inflation. The US 10-year bond yield, perhaps the most important macro indicator in the world which can move global financial markets, started rising to lead to a mild sell-off in February 2021 and now on May 12.

Inflation data released in the US on Wednesday showed higher-than-expected numbers. YoY CPI inflation spiked to 4.2 percent, the highest since 2008. Core inflation climbed to 3 percent, the highest since 1996. Reacting to the worse-than-expected inflation numbers, US markets corrected sharply: The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P crashed by 2 percent, 2.1 percent, and 2.67 percent, respectively. The US 10-year yield rose above 1.69 percent.


inflation: Structural or transitory?

Economists and market experts are divided on the nature of this inflation. Some see it as transitory while others fear that it will become structural. The jury is still out on this. If inflation cools off in the coming months and the present growth momentum in the global economy continues, growth will trump inflation and the markets will bounce back. On the other hand, if inflation impulses get entrenched, the bond market will push up the yields, negatively impacting equity markets. This bond bears versus equity bulls fight have many more rounds to go. Globally markets are highly correlated. So monitor the US inflation numbers, bond yields, and market movements even while tracking the COVID data and macros back home.

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Second COVID wave, lower GDP estimates – dilemma for fixed income investors: Anand Nevatia of TRUST AMC

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Whenever the economy starts to slow down, the central bank ensures easy monetary conditions along with a low-interest rate regime.


The second wave of COVID-19 is far more severe compared to the first wave. The average daily cases are touching approximately 4 lakh a day whereas only 2.5 percent of the population is vaccinated till now. Vaccine manufacturers are expected to increase production in the coming days as the US has relaxed restrictions on the export of raw materials to manufacture vaccines.

With a complete national lockdown in March 2020, it appeared that most of India escaped the first COVID-19 wave. The national lockdown severely affected the economy as was reflected in negative growth numbers in subsequent quarters. However, this time around, the decision of the lockdown was left on the states. Of the 28 states and 8 union territories, only about 16 have declared full lockdown while the others are on partial lockdown as of May 10, 2021. We are likely to see these numbers going up in the coming days given the increasing case numbers.

Most states are allowing essential activities to continue however, the lockdown does affect businesses at varying degrees. While the non-essential establishments see business coming to a complete standstill, the establishments in the essential services also go through a lower volume of business due to various logistical issues. There is a complete loss of demand for non-essential items as people start focusing on only essentials viz. food and grocery. This leads to a significant output gap as idle production capacity far exceeds the demand in the economy. This in turn leads to the postponement of CAPEX cycles, which affects the capital goods markets as well. This singular survival focus of the people not only impacts the manufacturing sector but also the services sector. The construction sector is a highly labor-intensive sector and will remain a key factor from an employment perspective. The second wave and consequent restrictions on non-essential domestic manufacturing could adversely affect exports.

While the GST collections until April 2021 (reflecting activity of March 2021) have been record-breaking, lower numbers are expected in the coming months as the economy starts reflecting the impact of lockdowns.

Post the first COVID-19 wave, as lockdowns were being lifted partially, some revival was witnessed largely due to the pent-up demand in the economy. A big contributor towards this revival was also the strong demand witnessed in the rural economy as rural India was largely able to avoid the dreaded virus. A key difference in the second wave is that this time rural India is also witnessing a large number of cases, and the impact is expected to be much larger as health facilities there are much lesser as compared to towns.

The coming months will start reflecting the impact of lockdowns in the economy and as a proactive measure, we also saw the Reserve Bank of India announcing a slew of measures to combat this expected slowdown in the last week. The true damage of COVID-19 induced lockdowns will be only realized once the pandemic starts to ebb away, however, in anticipation, we have had multiple agencies lowering their growth estimates for FY22.

Whenever the economy starts to slow down, the central bank ensures easy monetary conditions along with a low-interest rate regime. The RBI had brought down interest rates to record lows to combat the COVID-19 induced slowdown and had flushed the system with surplus liquidity. As the Indian economy had started showing some signs of revival, the RBI had started to withdraw some of this surplus liquidity but the impact of the second wave has made the central bank once again reassure the markets that it would maintain an accommodative stance for "as long as necessary" and till it witnesses durable growth in the economy.

The investors in the fixed income markets can therefore expect rates to remain low for at least a few quarters more before the rate cycle starts to reverse. The Indian Debt Capital markets have witnessed significant bouts of volatility in the last couple of years, be it market-driven or at times due to regulatory changes. The rates in the up to 1-year segment are too low and unattractive whereas the volatility on the longer end of the curve is something that is unpalatable for fixed income investors. In such scenarios, it would be prudent to lock investments into the tax-efficient roll-down products that not only present a natural hedge against a rising rate scenario but, also protect the investments from intermittent volatility.

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Share Market Closing Note

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Benchmark indices fell 1 percent on May 12 on the back of weak global cues.

At close, the Sensex was down 471.01 points or 0.96% at 48690.80, and the Nifty was down 154.30 points or 1.04% at 14696.50. About 1571 shares have advanced, 1443 shares declined, and 151 shares are unchanged.

Tata Steel, Hindalco Industries, JSW Steel, IndusInd Bank, and HUL were among the top losers on the Nifty. Gainers included Tata Motors, Titan Company, Maruti Suzuki, Power Grid Corp, and UPL.

On the sectoral front, the Nifty PSU Bank index rose over 3 percent, while Nifty Bank, metal, and energy indices fell 1-3 percent.

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Topic :- Time:1.30 PM

GOLD Trading View:

GOLD is trading at 47595. If it manages to trade and sustain above 47620 levels then expect some quick upmove in it and if it breaks and trades below 47520 levels then some decline can follow in it.

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Topic :- Time:1.10 PM

The very slow movement is there in the market today. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 14780 levels then some upmove is expected and below 14760 levels some decline is possible. Currently, the nifty spot is trading at 14771.

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Topic :- Time:12.30 PM

COPPER Trading View:

COPPER is trading at 801. If it breaks and trades below 800 level then expect some decline in it and if it manages to trade and sustain above 802.50 level then some further up move can be seen in it.

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Topic :- Time:12.20 PM

Just In:

Covaxin recommended by an expert panel for phase 2/3 trials on 2 to 18-years old.

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Topic :- Time:12.00 PM

Nifty is highly rangebound. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 14760 levels then expect some upmove and if it breaks and trade below 14720 levels then some decline can follow. 14700 to act as spot support.

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Topic :- Time:11.30 AM

News Wrap Up:

1. Sensex dips 450 points; financials, IT stocks slip

2. Indias daily Covid deaths rise by record 4,205, says health ministry

3. Sebi plans to ease post-IPO lock-in for promoters, amend the definition

4. Covid-19 in numbers Cases 23,340,938 | Deaths 254,197 | Vaccination 175,235,991

5. L&Ts Q4 revenue expected to grow on the back of higher execution

6. State Bank of Indias Padmakumar M Nair named as CEO of proposed bad bank

7. Godrej Consumer soars 15% on Sudhir Sitapatis appointment as MD and CEO

8. Pipeline outage causes US gasoline supply crunch, panic buying

9. Siemens surges 10%, hits new high on strong March quarter results

10. Venkys (India) rallies 10%, hits 52-week high post Q4 results

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Topic :- Time:11.00 AM

Nifty is highly rangebound. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 14760 levels then expect some upmove and if it breaks and trade below 14720 levels then some decline can follow in it.

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Topic :- Time:10.10 AM

After the negative opening nifty is showing some strength. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 14740 levels then expect some upmove and if it breaks and trade below 14700 levels then some decline can be seen in the market.

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Topic:- Results on May 12

Asian Paints, Lupin, UPL, Apollo Tyres, Tata Power, Avadh Sugar & Energy, Birla Corporation, Borosil Renewables, Dwarikesh Sugar Industries, GRM Overseas, Happiest Minds Technologies, HG Infra Engineering, Jindal Steel & Power, JSW Ispat Special Products, Kaycee Industries, Kennametal India, Khaitan Chemicals & Fertilizers, Mahindra Lifespace Developers, Mid East Portfolio Management, Orient Electric, Palash Securities, Pidilite Industries, Prince Pipes and Fittings, PTL Enterprises, Sagar Cements, Saregama India, SIL Investments, Sonata Software, Swiss Military Consumer Goods, Thambi Modern Spinning Mills, Trigyn Technologies, UPL, Vaibhav Global, Vardhman Concrete, Vikas WSP, Voltas and Yasho Industries will release quarterly earnings on May 12.

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Topic:- Stocks in News

Pennar Industries: SAIF India IV FII Holdings sold 31,81,239 equity shares (2.24 percent shareholding) via an open market transaction on May 7, reducing stake to 6.30 percent from 8.54 percent earlier.

Linde India: The company reported a higher consolidated profit at Rs 303.2 crore in Q4FY21 against Rs 39 crore in Q4FY20; revenue rose to Rs 441.4 crore from Rs 377.2 crore YoY.

Kalpataru Power Transmission: The company reported sharply higher consolidated profit at Rs 174 crore in Q4FY21 against Rs 31 crore in Q4FY20; revenue jumped to Rs 4,086 crore from Rs 3,527 crore YoY.

Infosys: The company announced a strategic collaboration with Britvic to accelerate its digital strategy.

Siemens: The company reported sharply higher consolidated profit at Rs 334.4 crore in Q2FY21 against Rs 175.7 crore in Q2FY20; revenue increased to Rs 3,483.7 crore from Rs 2,640.2 crore YoY.

Godrej Consumer Products: The company reported sharply higher consolidated profit at Rs 365.84 crore in Q4FY21 against Rs 229.9 crore in Q4FY20; revenue rose to Rs 2,730.74 crore from Rs 2,153.80 crore YoY.

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Topic:- Nifty Opening Note

Indian Stock Market Trading View For 12 May 2021:

Nifty is likely to trade volatile in a range. Another big breakout is likely to happen very soon in the market. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 14900 levels then expect some upmove in the market however 14950-14960 levels will act as good resistance for the market. Nifty spot if breaks and trade below 14800 level then some decline can follow in the market. Please note this is just an opening view and should not be considered as the view for the whole day.

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Indian April fuel demand dips, coronavirus wave clouds outlook

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Consumption of fuel, a proxy for oil demand, fell 9.4% to 17.01 million tonnes from March, data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas showed on Tuesday.


India's April fuel demand slipped from the previous month as the world's third-largest oil consumer bore the brunt of raging coronavirus infections, with the prospect of further restrictions weighing on the outlook.

Consumption of fuel, a proxy for oil demand, fell 9.4% to 17.01 million tonnes from March, data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas showed on Tuesday.

On a yearly basis, demand surged 81.5% from April 2020 lows, when consumption plunged to the lowest since 2006 as coronavirus restrictions during India's first wave-battered economy. This represents the biggest year-on-year increase since data going back to about 1999.

"India's second wave of virus infections and varying containment measures provides an uncertain outlook for the fuel demand," Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA said.

India is nearing 400,000 infections a day and the second surge has increased calls for a nationwide lockdown and forced many states to impose tougher restrictions.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's resistance to a full lockdown has supported consumption in the short term, Moya said.

Fuel demand had reached pre-pandemic levels of around 18.8 million tonnes in March, the highest level since end-2019.

However, the pandemic has led the country's top state oil refiners to reduce processing runs and crude imports, company officials told Reuters on Tuesday.

This trend is likely to extend into May as Indian refineries are reducing their refinery runs, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, adding that once mobility restrictions were lifted, demand should recovery swiftly.

Diesel consumption, a key parameter linked to economic growth in India, fell 7.5% to 6.68 million tonnes from the previous month but surged 105.5% year-on-year.

Gasoline, or petrol, sales fell 13.1% to 2.38 million tonnes in April- the lowest level since August 2020, and were 145% higher compared with the same period a year ago.

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Gold price today: Yellow metal trades flat, buy for a target of Rs 48,200: Experts

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Gold may witness choppy trade along with the US dollar, however, the general bias remains positive as the US Fed may continue to emphasize the need for lower rates, said an expert


India Gold June MCX Futures trade flat on May 11 following the muted trend in the international spot prices amid rising in the Dollar index.

A rise in the Dollar Index makes gold more expensive for other currency holders. The U.S. currency slipped to a more than two-month low in the previous session after U.S. non-farm payroll data on Friday showed jobs growth unexpectedly slowed in April, said a Reuters report.

On the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX), June gold contracts were trading lower by 0.01 percent at Rs 47,946 for 10 grams at 0935 hours. July silver futures were trading 0.18 percent lower at Rs 71,416 a kilogram.

Gold and silver showed mixed trends on Monday. Gold extended gains following weak U.S. data but Silver showed some profit-taking amid weakness in the base metals. Both the precious metals settled on a mixed note in the international markets.

“We expect both the precious metals to remain volatile in Tuesday’s session and gold could approach $1850 per troy ounce levels. Gold has support at $1824-1810 per troy ounce and resistance at $1850-1866 per troy ounce. Silver has support at $27.20-26.70 per troy ounce and resistance at $27.84-28.20 per troy ounce,” Manoj Jain, Director (Head-Commodity & Currency Research) at Prithvi Finmart said.

On MCX, Gold has support at Rs 47,800-47,580 and resistance at Rs 48,055-48,250. Silver has support at Rs 71,100-70,400 and resistance at Rs 72,000-72,700 levels. We suggest buying in gold around Rs 47,800 with a stop loss of Rs 47,580 for the target of Rs 48,200 and in silver around Rs 71,000 with a stop loss of Rs 70,200 for the target of Rs 72,500,” he said.

Technical indicators

Expert - Sriram Iyer, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities

International gold prices ended flat to marginally higher on Monday as the dollar continued to struggle.

However, the benchmark Treasury yields recovered on Monday and capped upside in gold. Silver gave up all of its gains and ended in the red on Monday.

Technically, MCX Gold June resistances are at Rs 47,988 and 48,343. Supports are at Rs 47,600 and Rs 47,225, said Iyer.

Technically, MCX Silver July resistances are at Rs 72,228 and Rs 72,700. Supports are at Rs 71,380 and Rs 70,970.

Expert - Amit Khare, Commodity research head, GCL Securities Limited

Gold price closed higher on Monday to trade near a three-month peak, owing to positive global cues. On the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX), June gold contracts closed higher by 0.42% at Rs 47,951 for 10 grams. July contract silver futures closed on Monday at 0.16% higher at Rs 71,544 a kilogram.

If we talk about its technical, momentum indicators like RSI and moving average are giving positive signals, the daily technical chart is showing strength, so traders are advised to go long for intraday, below are some technical levels for intraday.

June Gold closing price Rs 47,951, Support 1 - Rs 47,700, Support 2 - Rs 47,500,  Resistance 1 - Rs 48,165, Resistance 2 - Rs 48,375.

July Silver closing price Rs 71,544,  Support 1 - Rs 70,800, Support 2 - Rs 70,150, Resistance 1 - Rs 72,250, Resistance 2 - Rs 72,920.

Expert - Ravindra Rao, CMT, EPAT, VP- Head Commodity Research at Kotak Securities.

"COMEX gold trades little changed near $1837/oz after a 0.3% gain on May 10. Gold has turned mixed after testing a 3-month high amid choppiness in the US dollar.

The US dollar index turned choppy after hitting Feb low as easing concerns about US Fed's monetary tightening are countered by higher yields and persisting inflation concerns. ETF investors also moved to the sidelines after last week's inflows. Gold may witness choppy trade along with the US dollar, however, the general bias remains positive as the US Fed may continue to emphasize the need for lower rates.

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RBI may continue to keep some state-run banks in PCA framework: Report

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The Centre said in March it would infuse Rs 14,500 crore in four public sector banks through zero-coupon bonds.

Reserve Bank of India (Image: Shutterstock)

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may delay taking some state-run lenders out of the prompt corrective action (PCA) framework, due to concerns over capital adequacy.

The banking regulator has questioned the government's capital infusion into the banks through non-interest-bearing or zero-coupon bonds, The Economic Times reported.

The central bank is of the view that capital infusion through these bonds cannot be taken at face value, which means that banks may still be short of regulatory capital, the report said.

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The RBI had not yet responded when contacted by The Economic Times.

The Centre said in March it would infuse Rs 14,500 crore in four public sector banks through zero-coupon bonds - Central Bank of India (Rs 4,800 crore), Indian Overseas Bank (Rs 4,100 crore), Bank of India (Rs 3,000 crore) and UCO Bank (Rs 2,600 crore).

In December 2020, the government has issued Rs 5,500 crore in zero-coupon bonds to recapitalise Punjab and Sind Bank.

The Ministry of Finance and the RBI have differences on capital issuance through zero-coupon bonds and their calculation in capital adequacy ratio, The Economic Times reported

"The government went ahead despite RBI's initial reservations and now the regulator has expressed serious concerns. RBI may not allow banks to treat infusion through such bonds at par value," an official told the publication.

Since the entire fund infusion through such bonds will not count toward regulatory capital, the RBI will keep the banks under the PCA framework.

"RBI is not inclined to pull these lenders out of PCA framework based on such capital infusion," another official said.

"It may further direct lenders to recalculate their capital adequacy ratio based on the actual value of the bonds."


When to choose Vertical Spread as an options trading strategy: Shubham Agarwal

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The vertical spread family can consist of multiple strategies, but the most popular ones are Bull Call Spreads and Bear Put Spreads. Read on to know what all parameters you need to keep in mind while adopting these strategies

A bull call spread is a strategy where one buys a Call option and sells a higher strike call option. The net premium outflow reduces to the extent of sold options premium and yet the risk reduces as you have less to lose.

One of the key benefits of trading options is that instead of a straight-line Profit & Loss curve that Futures offer, options can be customized to fit the reward and risk of a trader.

Over millions of options strategy combinations can be achieved from the options chain and one of them is vertical spread. The vertical spread family can consist of multiple strategies, but the most popular ones are Bull Call Spreads & Bear Put Spreads.

At the same time, the trade-off is that a bull call spread offers a limited upside versus a simple long call. How much risk is one willing to take and how much reward one expects varies from trader to trader but in this article, we’ll learn that being an opportunist when should one prefer a bull call spread over a long call. Similarly, the concept could be applied for a Bear Put Spread versus a Long put.

A key input for choosing an options strategy revolves around time. If the time frame for a forecast is extremely short term i.e. 3-4 days then in most cases Long call will be a preferred strategy but, the moment the forecast is for a long time period then getting compensated for the time with a vertical spread is a good idea.

Vertical spread can improve the pay-off in terms of the reward to risk when the time frame is more positional (generally more than 4 days) and the strategy can also be carried till expiry.

Momentum

Consider a market that is oscillating within a few hundred points, it becomes a challenging task to identify stocks that may witness a directional move, in these cases, a lot of Theta is lost in expectations of breakouts which lacks due to the overall market structure.

In a market where momentum is lacking, vertical spreads can be a better bet than buying a single option.

Expiry Placement

Expiry placement or days to expiry is an important input when deciding on an options strategy and where are you placed in the expiry affects the decision. From mid expiry when the options theta starts to decay faster, it is generally a better idea to resort to vertical spread over single options contract.

Most importantly, in the expiry week when options are decaying very fast, it might always be a good idea to resort to a vertical spread for any trades being carried for more than a day.

Risk Aversion

Many investors look forward to options to build their portfolio and to make returns from medium-term moves. Since deploying a vertical spread is far cheaper than trading futures, it naturally restricts the risk.

A vertical spread with one OTM as buying and a few OTMs as sell strike typically offers a 3:1 reward to risk. It means that if you succeed you make 3 times more profit than the risk you take and for strategies with a medium-term approach, this helps in reducing risk yet providing a handsome profit potential.

Strategic Forecasts

In many cases, traders do forecast probable targets of underlying equity and trades for them. Vertical spreads are a good way to trade if you are confident that the target will act as a resistance. If your forecast suggests that the underlying equity may not move above those levels, then in those cases you may not want to pay a high premium that a single option brings to the table. Instead, selling the strike of the target reduces your premium outflow and optimizes your trade to customize to your forecast.

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Credit Suisse cuts India's FY22 GDP forecast to 8.5-9%

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The Swiss brokerage has also warned that it will delay the economy from reaching a potential growth rate by an additional two-three years beyond 2022-23.

GDP

GDP

Credit Suisse has sharply lowered its real GDP growth forecast for this fiscal year to around 8.5-9 percent, citing economic disruptions in the country due to the raging second wave that is likely to shave 100-150 bps growth off the economy.

The Swiss brokerage has also warned that it will delay the economy from reaching a potential growth rate by an additional two-three years beyond 2022-23.

The consensus forecast for FY22 growth is between 10 and 11 percent by most analysts, including international raters like S&P, Fitch, and Moody's, and so is their domestic counterparts, with the lowest among them being nine percent by Brickwork Ratings.

Similarly, the consensus potential annual growth rate is 6.5 percent for many years from 2022-23, which many had predicted after the first wave and the sharper-than-expected recovery the economy had logged in last year.

Analysts were also expecting a rapid turnaround for the economy this fiscal following at least an 8 percent contraction in 2020-21 after being ravaged by the pandemic-induced nationwide lockdown last year.

Given the impact of the raging second wave, Credit Suisse expects a GDP impact of 100-150 basis points, even though considers the second wave is much more intense than the first in terms of daily cases and deaths, yet the economic impact is lower.

The country recorded coronavirus infections of over 4.12 lakh in the last 24 hours.

"We may revise downwards the FY22 real GDP growth forecast by 100-150 bps from our earlier forecast of 7 percent over 2019-20. Yet, our forecast is meaningfully higher than the consensus forecast, as it was before the second wave.

"We now expect 2021-22 real GDP to be 5 percent more than 2019-20 (when it stood at a 4 percent)," Neelkanth Mishra, co-head of equity strategy for the Asia Pacific and India equity strategist at Credit Suisse, told PTI in an interaction.

He expects that economic activity restrictions this time should last a few weeks and not months as in the case of last year, and are also less intense than last year, and more localized.

On the long-term impact of the second wave on growth, Mishra feels the economy may not reach the pre-pandemic projected levels for at least two-three years after 2022-23.

A year before the pandemic scuppered every plan, the government had set its eyes on an ambitious USD 5-trillion GDP target by FY25, becoming the fourth largest after the US, China, and Japan and the third-largest by 2029-30. On growth normalization, Mishra said it would depend on how soon the peak of the infection, how long the second wave lasts, and the intensity of activity restrictions by governments.

As of now, it looks like the case and death numbers should start to ease by mid-May as our current expectation is that lockdowns are likely to be localized and not very intense and will mostly be short-lived, he said.

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Share Market Closing Note

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The benchmark indices closed on a strong note on Thursday with the Nifty50 scaling above 14,700 levels.


The BSE Sensex rallied 272.21 points to close at 48,949.76, and the Nifty50 was up 106.90 points at 14,724.80. The broader markets also traded in line with frontliners as the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices gained 0.94 percent and 0.7 percent respectively.


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Topic :- Time:1.10 PM


Nifty is showing a good recovery. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 14720 levels then expect some further upmove and if it breaks and trade below 14680 levels then some decline can be seen in the market.


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Topic :- Time:12.30 PM


COPPER Trading View:

COPPER is trading at 766.50. If it manages to trade and sustain above 767 level then expect some upmove and if it breaks and trades below 766.00 level then some decline can be seen in this base metal.

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Topic :- Time:12.10 PM

Just In:

Bitcoin rises 6.8% to $56,852.03.

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Topic :- Time:12.00 PM

Consolidation is going on. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 14700 levels then some upmove can be seen in the market and if it breaks and trade below 14640 levels then some decline can be seen in the market.

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Topic :- Time:11.30 AM

News Wrap Up:

1. Sensex, Nifty volatile; metals, auto stocks up, PSU banks drag

2. BoB sanctions Rs 500 cr to Serum after RBI liquidity tap for healthcare firms

3. Coronavirus: India records 412262 new cases; 3,982 deaths

4. China halting flights to India could hurt pharma supplies, say companies

5. IDBI Bank shares zoom 15% as Cabinet gives in-principle nod to divestment

6. Tata Steel gains 6%, hits new high on strong March quarter results

7. Indian Energy Exchange gains 5% on a strong business update for April

8. US-listed Emerging Markets ETFs see 26th straight week of inflows

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Topic :- Time:11.00 AM


Right now nifty is trading in a range. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 14680 levels then expect some further upmove and if it breaks and trade below 14640 levels then some decline can follow in the market.

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Topic :- Time:10.20 AM


After a positive opening nifty is still trading in the green zone. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 14640 levels then expect some further upmove and if it breaks and trade below 14600 levels then some decline can follow in the market.

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Topic:- Stocks under F&O ban on NSE


1. SUNTV

2. TATA CHEM

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Topic:- Stocks in News

Tata Steel: The company posted a consolidated profit of Rs 6,644.1 crore for Q4FY21 against a loss of Rs 1,481.3 crore in the year-ago period. Consolidated revenue increased to Rs 49,977.4 crore from Rs 36,009.4 crore in Q4FY20.

Maharashtra Seamless: ONGC has issued the letter of award to Jindal Drilling & Industries for the deployment of Jack-up drilling rig Jindal Explorer owned by Maharashtra Seamless on charter hire contract for a period of 3 years.

Praj Industries: HDFC Mutual Fund sold 4,34,583 equity shares (0.24 percent) in Praj Industries via an open market transaction on May 3, reducing shareholding to 6.51 percent from 6.75 percent earlier.

IDBI Bank: Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs has given its in-principle approval for strategic disinvestment along with transfer of management control in IDBI Bank. LIC may reduce its shareholding in IDBI Bank through divesting its stake along with strategic stake sales envisaged by the government, said the bank.

Adani Green Energy: The company reported a consolidated profit of Rs 104 crore for Q4FY21 against Rs 56 crore reported in Q4FY20, revenue rose to Rs 986 crore from Rs 696 crore in the year-ago period.

Wipro: The company partnered with Transcell Oncologics to transform vaccine safety assessment using augmented intelligence.

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Topic:- Results on May 6

Hero MotoCorp, Adani Power, Adani Transmission, Apcotex Industries, Blue Star, Caplin Point Laboratories, Century Textiles & Industries, Coforge, CreditAccess Grameen, Hindoostan Mills, ICRA, IIFL Finance, Josts Engineering, Ludlow Jute & Specialities, Procter & Gamble Health, Praj Industries, Raymond, Solara Active Pharma Sciences, Sundram Fasteners, Tata Consumer Products, Five X Tradecom, Foseco India, Hikal, Ashika Credit Capital and Bombay Burmah Trading Corporation will release quarterly earnings on May 6.

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Topic:- Nifty Opening Note


Indian Stock Market Trading View For 6 May 2021:

Yet another volatile session is expected. Global cues to be a critical factor.

Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 14660 levels then expect some up move in the market and if it breaks and trade below 14560 levels then some decline can be seen in the market. Please note this is just an opening view and should not be considered as the view for the whole day.

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