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Share Market Closing Note, Indian Stock Market Trading View For 8 August, 2022 - Sharetipsinfo

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Share Market Closing Note

Nifty ends above 17,500, Sensex gains 450 pts led by auto, power, metals.

sensex today: Traders' Diary: Nifty's near-term outlook cautious - The  Economic Times

Among sectors, except oil & gas all other sectoral indices ended in the green.

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Topic :- Time:3.00 PM

Nifty spot if manages to close above 17540 level then expect some quick upmove in coming sessions and if it closes below above mentioned level then some sluggish movement can follow in the market. Avoid open positions for tomorrow.

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Topic :- Time:2.40 PM

CRUDEOIL Trading View:

CRUDEOIL is trading at 7077.If it holds above 7030 level then expect it to rise till 7105-7120 levels quite soon and if it breaks and trade below 7030 level then some decline can follow in it.

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Topic :- Time:2.40 PM

CRUDEOIL Trading View:

CRUDEOIL is trading at 7077.If it holds above 7030 level then expect it to rise till 7105-7120 levels quite soon and if it breaks and trade below 7030 level then some decline can follow in it.

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Topic :- Time:2.20 PM

Just In:

Bajaj Finserv hits over 3-month high; stock zooms 30% in a month

On July 28, 2022, Bajaj Finservs board had approved 1:1 bonus issue and 1:5 stock split.

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Topic :- Time:2.15 PM

Just In:

Infra assets worth over Rs 1.62 lakh crore to be monetised this fiscal: Finance Ministry.

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Topic :- Time:2.00 PM

Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17540 level then expect some quick upmove in it and if it breaks and trade below 17520 level then some decline can be seen in the market.

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Topic :- Time:1.30 PM

GOLD Trading View:

GOLD is trading at 51991.If it manages to trade and sustain above 52040 level then expect some quick upmove in it and if it breaks and trade below 51920 level then some decline can follow in it.

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Topic :- Time:1.00 PM

Nifty is rising smoothly however expect market to turn volatile now. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17540 level then expect some quick upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 17500 level then some decline can follow in the Nifty.

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Topic :- Time:12.30 PM

COPPER Trading View:

COPPER is trading at 659.If it manages to trade and sustain above 660.20 level then expect some quick upmove and if it breaks and trade below 658.20 level then some decline can follow in it.

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Topic :- Time:12.00 PM

Nifty spot is trading at 17475.If it manages to trade and sustain above 17480 level then expect some quick upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 17460 level then some decline can follow in the Nifty.

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Topic :- Time:11.45 AM

Just In:

SBI shares decline as Q1 earnings disappoint

Indias largest lender SBI on Saturday reported a 6.7% year-on-year decline in June quarter net profit to  ₹6,068 crore.

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Topic :- Time:11.30 AM

News Wrap Up:

1. Sensex up 250pts, Nifty50 above 17,450; PSU Banks bleed

2. New Sebi rules may pull the rug out from Indias bid to boost bond market

3. Tata Motors EV subsidiary buys Fords Sanand plant for Rs 725 crore

4. RILs green energy biz will outshine other segments in 5-7 years: Ambani

5. Rupee falls as strong US jobs data rekindles fear of aggressive Fed hikes

6. Hindustan Aeronautics rallies 5%, hits new high on strong business outlook

7. Steel players hopeful of export duty withdraw; okay with capex plans

8. Lack of clarity on GST paid on liquidated damages may lead to litigation

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Topic :- Time:11.00 AM

After flat to negative opening nifty is now trading with marginal gains. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17560 level then expect some quick upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 17440 level then some decline can follow in the Nifty.

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Topic :- Nifty Opening Note

Indian Stock Market Trading View For 8 August, 2022:

Nifty is likely to remain volatile throughout the week. China-Taiwan development will have deep impact on metals and Gold.

For Monday:

Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17450-17460 levels then expect some quick upmove in it and if it breaks and trade below 17320 level then some decline can follow in the market. Please note this is just opening view and should not be considered as the view for the whole day.

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Bharti Airtel Q1 results: Net profit soars 466%; ARPU rises to Rs 183

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Revenue from operations rises 21% to Rs 32,805 cr

Bharti Airtel

Telecom major  on Monday reported 466% surge in consolidated net profit (attributable to owners of the parent) at Rs 1,607 crore for the quarter ending June 30, 2022, boosted by subscriber additions. It reported net profit of Rs 284 crore in the year-ago period.

The company's consolidated revenue from operations rose 21% to Rs 32,805 crore in Q1FY23 as compared to Rs 27,064 crore in Q1FY22. Bharti Airtel's mobile services revenue in India grew 27% year-on-year to Rs 18,220 crore for the first quarter from Rs 14,305.6 crore.

The company's average revenue per user (ARPU) increased to Rs 183 in Q1FY23 as against Rs 146 in Q1FY22. ARPU of rivals Reliance Jio and Vodafone Idea for the same period was Rs 175.7 and Rs 128, respectively.

The company said in November, when it announced tariff hikes, that mobile ARPU needed to be at Rs 200 and ultimately at Rs 300, for a financially healthy business model.

On Monday, the company's scrip on BSE closed nearly flat at Rs 704.35.

Gopal Vittal, MD and CEO, said: “This has been another solid quarter. We continue to deliver strong and sustained growth at 4.5% sequentially. EBITDA margins are now at 50.6%. Our enterprise and homes business has strong momentum and delivered strong double digit growth, improving the diversity of the overall portfolio. Airtel’s strategy of winning with quality customers continues to yield good  with an industry beating ARPU at Rs 183.

"As India gets ready to launch 5G, we are well positioned to raise the bar on innovation. We are also confident of meeting the emerging needs of discerning customers looking for speed, coverage and latency. Our astute spectrum strategy over the last few years as we bolstered mid band spectrum is designed to deliver the best experience at the lowest total cost of ownership.”

The firm said its 4G customers rose by 20.8 million on an annual basis and by 4.5 million on a sequential basis.

Mobile data consumption rose by 16.6% YoY, consumption per mobile data customer at 19.5 GB per month, said Airtel.

"Airtel to lead India’s 5G revolution with acquisition of ideal spectrum bank at least cost for best 5Gexperience and 100x capacity enhancement; procured 19,867.8 MHz spectrum for Rs 43,040 crore in the recently concluded 5G spectrum," the company said in a stock exchange filing.

The company has been raising money to fund its digital ambitions, including developing home broadband, data centres, cloud adoption as it prepares to launch its next-generation 5G services in the country.

Five charts that show Indian consumers are optimistic but won't turn big spenders

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Indian consumers are more optimistic than before about the prospects of employment and income. But inflation is adding a layer of caution when it comes to spending.Five charts that show Indian consumers are optimistic but won't turn big  spenders

Indians are more optimistic than ever on the prospects of their country’s economic growth than they were six months ago but they are far from opening up their purses and spending as they did before the pandemic.

A look at the Reserve Bank of India’s consumer sentiment survey shows that optimism about the current situation as well as future outlook has increased over the past six months. That said, if we scratch the surface and look into sub-categories that form the headline indices, this optimism gives way to caution. Consumers may be more hopeful about employment and incomes but they are not ready yet to indulge in discretionary spending. That means India is yet to get her spenders that would boost the economic growth through demand. The following five charts lay out the good and the non-so-good parts of consumer sentiment:

The current situation index is now at its highest level since March 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic hit. The future expectations index though is still below pre-pandemic levels but it is getting there. Economic growth has recovered smartly over the past one year from the impact of the pandemic. In fact, most high frequency indicators are well above their pre-pandemic levels. Consumption demand has revived, visible through the rebound in consumer durables, services and even personal loans of banks. This has led to consumers being hopeful about future employment prospects as well.

The consumer sentiment of the RBI shows that employment prospects have improved sharply over the past two years in tandem with the recovery in economic growth. Indians view that it would be easier to get jobs one year down the line but there is a thread of caution here too. In fact, the expectations have been coming down over the past three survey rounds. This shows that people have become cautious on the jobs front even though they view the situation much better than before. The employment data from Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy adds credence to this emerging caution. Employment rate has slipped marginally in July compared with its level in March. The overall optimism though has made people hopeful on the outlook of income.

Consumers believe that the current situation on incomes has improved significantly although the optimism levels are yet to reach pre-pandemic. Future expectations too have improved a lot, as the chart above shows. Indeed, the revival in various sectors and the bounce back among small businesses have repaired the tear left by the pandemic on balance sheets. Further, firms in sectors such as information technology and finance have shown that compensation hikes can be sizeable to the workforce. Listed companies have reported a rise in their employment costs, a sign that wages are on the rise. What follows when incomes are expected to grow is that consumption spending increases. That brings us to the weak link in the consumer sentiment chain: spending.

Indians are not yet willing to become big spenders and are holding their purses tight when it comes to discretionary spending. As the chart above shows, non-essential spending is still in the negative territory. Overall, spending and even essential spending have risen but slowly. The reason for this is inflation. As costs have gone up across consumption items, consumers are choosing to reduce their spending. That brings us to the final part of the RBI's consumer survey.

The net response for inflation shows that consumers still see the price situation as deeply adverse for them. That said, there is some optimism seen in expectations one year ahead. However, the reading is still deep in negative territory. This could continue to check consumption impulses, especially towards discretionary spending.

Seeking ways to cool domestic wheat prices, India could scrap import duty

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India could scrap a 40% duty on wheat imports and cap the amount of stocks traders can hold to try to dampen record high domestic prices in the world's second biggest producer.

Agriculture, farmers, wheat, procurement, MSP, APMC, commodity

MUMBAI (Reuters) - India could scrap a 40% duty on wheat imports and cap the amount of stocks traders can hold to try to dampen record high domestic prices in the world's second biggest producer, government and trade officials told Reuters on Monday.

The South Asian country barred wheat exports in May after the crop suffered a heatwave, but domestic prices still rose to a record high. Yet, international prices are still way above the domestic market, making it unviable for traders to buy from abroad.

If the government does remove the duty, and international prices also fall, then traders say they could start importing, especially during the upcoming festival season, when higher demand typically drives domestic prices higher.

"We are exploring all possible options to bring down the prices," said a senior government official who held discussion with industry officials last week.

New Delhi could scrap the 40% import duty and impose stock limits on wholesalers and traders to signal to the market that the government will do everything in its power to keep prices in check, said the official, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the subject.

Domestic wheat prices ended last week at a record 24,000 rupees ($301.57) per tonne, having risen 14% from lows struck after the government surprised markets on May 14 by banning exports, ending hopes that India could fill the market gap left by the missing Ukraine grain.

Domestic prices are still nearly a third lower than global prices, said a Mumbai-based trader with a global trading firm, who described Indian wheat as the cheapest in the world.

India last imported wheat in the 2017/18 (April-March) financial year.

"If global prices fall by another 20% and Indian prices continue their rally, then may be, sometime after few months, imports might become feasible," the trader said.

The government has limited options to intervene in the market this year since its procurement has fallen 57% to 18.8 million tonnes, said a New Delhi-based dealer with a global trading firm.

"New crop would become available only after 9 months. The government has to use stocks very carefully until then to avoid any shortage," the dealer said.

 

Electricity amendment bill to be sent to standing committee

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Power Minister RK Singh said that the bill would be sent to a standing committee for detailed discussionElectricity Amendment Bill: Claim to provide choice to power consumers  "misleading", says AIPEF Chai- The New Indian Express

The government on August 8 introduced the Electricity (Amendment) Bill, 2022 in the Lok Sabha amid protests by opposition parties.

Power minister RK Singh said the bill would be sent to a standing committee for detailed discussion. Moneycontrol has exclusively reported on August 5 that the government is likely to introduce the much-awaited Electricity (Amendment) Bill 2022, which aims to streamline the payment framework, empower regulators and encourage competition in the sector, this week.

The opposition parties protested against the Bill, citing that it will allow several power companies to distribute powers in any license area. They also said that it was against the interest of farmers.

Responding to the opposition, Minister Singh said that the bill will be discussed in detail in the standing committee. He also said that the bill makes no provision to stop electricity subsidies for farmers. 

The Bill proposes changes to allow operation of more than one power distributor in a supply area, which will give consumers the option to choose electricity suppliers and encourage competition. The minister said that this was first proposed in the 2003 bill.

The proposed amendments are to the Electricity Act, 2003 which was enacted to consolidate the laws relating to the generation, transmission, distribution, trading, and use of electricity and generally for taking measures conducive to the development of electricity.

“The amendments to the Act are also necessary in view of the importance of green energy for our environment in the context of global climate change concerns and our international commitments to increase the share of renewable energy. Further, it has become necessary to strengthen the regulatory mechanism, an adjudicatory mechanism in the Act and to bring administrative reforms through improved corporate governance of distribution licensees," the government said.

The Bill proposes that power distribution licensees will be allowed to use the networks of other licensees. This will boost competition as it will help new distributors to overcome infrastructure hurdles and also improve the efficiency of the power distribution network. 

The government also hopes to insert a new section that will enable the management of power purchase and cross-subsidy in case of multiple distribution licensees in the same area of supply.

The Bill also proposes to enable regulators to fix a minimum tariff ceiling to discourage unhealthy pricing wars among distributors and a maximum ceiling to ensure consumers are protected against price increase shock.

Among other amendments, the government is also making changes to strengthen the functioning of the National Load Despatch Centre for ensuring the safety and security of the grid and for the economic and efficient operation of the power system in the country.

Meanwhile, All  India Power Engineers Federation (AIPEF) said that lakhs of electricity employees and engineers from across the country have joined hands to observe a protest demonstration against the Electricity (Amendment) Bill 2022. The association is against the privatization of power distribution and believes that the bill will negatively impact the farmers and also lead to a rise in power bills for households. The association said in a statement that power sector employees and  engineers exercised their democratic right by boycotting their official duties and holding gate meetings in all the union territories and states like Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Assam, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, West Bengal, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Ladakh, among others. 

New Sebi rules may pull the rug out from India's bid to boost bond market

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Opening up India's corporate bond market is an important part of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's pledge to almost double the size of the economy to $5 trillion by 2025

Photo: Bloomberg

India’s plan to expand its  faces an unexpected impediment because the regulator is considering tightening control of trading platforms that allow investments in company debt in just a few clicks.

While the proposed framework is designed to protect  and is therefore being welcomed by some, a few of the proposals by the Securities and Exchange Board of India could actually prove counterproductive and hurt liquidity, according to experts who spoke to Bloomberg. That’s because the sale of unlisted debt would be banned, platforms would be forbidden to sell privately placed corporate notes on to non-institutional  soon after acquiring them, and trades would need to be settled via routes that today are not commonly used.

Market participants have until Aug. 12. to give officials their input on the matter.

“The trade off is very often between creating depth in the market and ensuring investor protection,” said Shilpa Mankar Ahluwalia, a partner at law firm Shardul Amarchand Mangaldas & Co. “The regulator ideally needs to strike a fine balance between investor protection and innovation, also recognizing that online bond platforms have the potential to widen access and deepen the .”

Opening up India’s  is an important part of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s pledge to almost double the size of the economy to $5 trillion by 2025. As it stands, the local-currency bond market offers easier access only for the top-rated issuers, with big local banks and brokers doing deals based on long-standing relationships.

Bond platforms, either start-ups or businesses backed by banks or brokers, have boomed in India with more than a dozen financial technology platforms emerging in the last three years, competing for a share of the $1.9 trillion market for time deposits. They mainly target individual  with a promise of much higher interest rates by putting money into company debt, and allow for minimum investments that can be as low as 10,000 rupees ($126).

Easy access through an interface similar to that of online shopping websites and the prospect of higher returns can be appealing to novices. The platforms, though tiny, have grown more than six times over two years with debt mainly sold to non-institutional investors,  said in a consultation paper last month.

graph

Six-Month Lock-in

  •  proposes to bar platforms from selling privately placed corporate bonds to non-institutional investors within six months of allotment
  • The proposal comes after the regulator found that in some cases the entire privately placed issue was sold to more than 200 investors within 15 days of allotment, making it more akin to a public issue
  • “The regulator is concerned about private placements becoming shadow public offerings via distribution on online platforms given that the rules, compliance and disclosure requirements for a public offering are much more stringent and detailed,” said Shardul Amarchand’s Ahluwalia
  • But Ankit Gupta, who founded BondsIndia.com, said institutions would be required to maintain a huge balance sheet to buy and hold notes for six months
  • Because of this, Gupta said there’s a risk of platforms’ ability to participate in primary issuance will be limited, thereby affecting liquidity. He will reach out to the regulator for more clarity.

Trade Settlement

  •  has proposed transactions on these platforms be settled either through the debt segments of exchanges or through request for quote platforms
  • The regulator found that in some cases these platforms accepted funds directly from the client, bypassing procedural norms
  • But market participants argue the two routes suggested by Sebi aren’t regularly used by bigger participants to settle over-the-counter trades
  • “In cases where platforms are settling trades through clearing corporation, the party that buys bonds credits money in clearing corporation’s account directly and the seller supplies the debt securities,” said Aditi Mittal, co-founder at IndiaBonds.com and director at one of India’s leading broker A.K. Capital Services Ltd., adding only if the deal matches, respective accounts are debited and credited
  • “This system is working beautifully as nothing is paid into the platforms’ account. Hence, the concern regarding tweaking the settlement structure needs to be discussed and deliberated,” she said.

RIL green energy business may outperform other growth engines in 5-7 years: Mukesh Ambani

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Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) expects the green power segment to emerge as a growth engine for the company that could potentially outperform other businesses in the next 5-7 years, Chairman and Managing Director Mukesh Ambani told shareholders in a message in the company’s annual report for 2021-22.RIL green energy business may outperform other growth engines in 5-7 years: Mukesh  Ambani

Reliance had last year shared its ambitious plan to invest $10 billion over three years. This investment would be on setting up four giga-factories to manufacture and fully integrate all critical components for the business and will also include investment on the value chain, partnerships, and future technologies.

“Over the next 12 months our investments across the green energy value chain will gradually start going live, scaling up over the next couple of years. This new growth engine holds great promise to outshine all our existing growth engines in just 5-7 years,” Ambani said.

He said that RIL will continue to expand its existing businesses in terms of technology, innovation, scale and execution.

“India is set to become one of the world’s top three economies in the next couple of decades, and all of Reliance’s business verticals will play a leading role in achieving that. India and Reliance will aim to play a leading role in the world’s transition to clean energy,” Ambani said.

The clean energy business of the conglomerate will focus on building technologies, scaling capacities and creating a new energy ecosystem for India and RIL to achieve the ambition of net carbon zero. RIL aims to be net carbon zero by 2035.

The company said it has set up a new energy council chaired by Dr Raghunath Mashelkar, former Director General of the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, to guide the clean energy initiatives. The nine-member council includes eight global technocrats, many of whom are advisers to governments worldwide.

“Reliance's approach is to create a new energy ecosystem, transition to clean energy and convert clean energy to green chemicals,” the company said in the annual report.

RIL is developing the Dhirubhai Ambani Green Energy Giga Complex on 5,000 acres in Jamnagar, comprising four giga factories. These include an integrated solar photovoltaic module factory, an advanced energy storage battery factory for intermittent energy, an electrolyser factory for the production of green hydrogen and a fuel cell factory for converting hydrogen into motive and stationary power.

The company is also setting up infrastructure in Jamnagar to manufacture ancillary material and equipment needed to support the giga factories and enabling independent manufacturers to join and grow as part of this ecosystem.

“As we transition into a new energy era, targets for periodic reductions in emissions are being established, which will be monitored regularly through governance mechanisms that oversee RIL's progress toward Net Carbon Zero goals,” the company said.


Delhi law student, who works as Swiggy delivery agent to fund education, shares his learnings

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Anurag Bhargava, who is enrolled at the Delhi University's Faculty of Law, wants people to not pity him. "This job can transform your personality for the good," he said in a LinkedInRepresentatational image. A Delhi University student's experience of working as a Swiggy delivery agent to support his education has struck a chord with many on social media.

Anurag Bhargava, who is enrolled at the university's Faculty of Law, spoke about the lessons he learnt on job and its perks and the "misconceptions"  in a LinkedIn post.

Delivery jobs are know to be underpaid , with odd hours and the immense pressure of quick service.

But the student said his job provided him "easy money" and "flexible timings".

I keep my mom with me in Delhi (in a decent locality) and we live a decent lifestyle," he wrote. "Although, some credit goes to my mom's frugality here, you get the point."

Coming to misconceptions, the student said one of them was that delivery agents are treated badly.

"I have never faced any misbehaviour from any party," he said. "I believe it also depends on your mindset."

While the student may have been fortunate to not have bad experiences, there have been several incidents over the years of people attacking delivery agents.

Next, he said delivery persons are not burnt out. "Yes, the work is physically exhausting, but you are not "burnt out". You are just tired," he added.

The student then reflected on what he had learnt on job.

"Patience and discipline : This job has made me gain a cathartic level of calmness," he said.

Bhargava added that the job had made him more empathetic. "Today I see a person working hard to make ends meet, I try my best to help them in my best capacity."

He also learnt about financial frugality. "Earning big and supporting family may offer you peace of mind, but earning just enough and supporting a dependent makes you feel like a true survivor," he added. "It inculcates a fighting spirit like no other."

The student added the job makes you street-smart.

"Delivering food on time (there are no enforced targets) while navigating Delhi traffic without damaging the food item will make you street smart, anyday. Add to that, how you learn to let your eyes do the talking about negotiating parking spaces."

Many LinkedIn users expressed admiration for the student.

"I appreciate you for the grit to be on your own to support your education," said a user named Manoj Krishnan. "I realize and also understand how tough it is to do the work, but it is a matter of mindset."

"It is absolutely refreshing to see how comfortably you shared your learnings and challenges from a job, which otherwise would have been looked down upon by the white collar community," read another comment below his post.

Others disagreed with some of the points Bhargava made.

Another user enquired about work conditions at Swiggy.

"How much did you earn per hour? How many hours did you work to earn Rs 700 to 750 per day? Any protective measures that Swiggy provided for you while working?" they asked.

"Excellent write-up. However, strongly disagree with your "decent lifestyle" and "not burnt" out part. "The payment (made to delivery persons) is bad and working conditions inhuman -- never justifiable," wrote a user named Tanmoy Majumdar.





Rise in cash in circulation for April-July stands at Rs 50,800 cr: RBI data

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The currency in circulation had jumped by over Rs 4 trillion in 2020-21, while the increase tapered to Rs 2.80 trillion in the last financial year


Photo: Bloomberg

India’s currency in circulation has increased by only around Rs 500 billion in the first four months of this financial year, which is nearly half the pace of the same period a year ago.

“Economic activity is completely back to pre-pandemic levels, and hence there is hardly any need for panic-driven cash withdrawals, which is leading to a drop in cash in circulation,” a trader with a state-run bank said.

The rise in the cash in circulation for April-July stood at Rs 508 billion ($6.38 billion), as compared to Rs 928 billion for the similar period last year and a mammoth Rs 2.25 trillion in 2020-21, the peak of lockdown, data from the  showed. The currency in circulation had jumped by over Rs 4 trillion in 2020-21, while the increase tapered to Rs 2.80 trillion in the last financial year, and market participants ex­pect another drop in the current year.

Meanwhile, India’s banking system liquidity surplus remains around Rs 2 trillion, and Kotak Mahindra Bank expects the surplus to ease to around Rs 1.50 trillion by the end of this week.

MPC hikes repo rate by 50 bps to 5.40%; Covid-era cuts reversed entirely

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Committee retains FY23 CPI forecast at 6.7%, flags uncertainty on inflation trajectory

**EDS: SCREENSHOT FROM A VIDEO POSTED BY @RBI ON WEDNESDAY, JUNE 8, 2022.** Mumbai: Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das digitally delivers a statement. (PTI Photo)(


The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MP) on Friday announced a 50 basis point hike in the repo rate to 5.40 per cent, citing continued upside risks to inflation.

The Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) rate is now at 5.15 per cent, while the Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) Rate stands at 5.65 per cent. The SDF represents the lower band of the interest rate corridor and the MSF the higher.

A 'Business Standard' poll on Monday predicted a 35-50 basis-point increase in the repo rate at this week’s policy statement. The benchmark policy repo rate is now at the highest since August 2019.

As in its June policy statement, the MPC said this morning the rate-setting panel was focused on the withdrawal of accommodation. Given that the MPC is on a policy-tightening path, some economists had called for a shift in stance to neutral or calibrated tightening.

The latest rate action takes the total tally of rate hikes since May to 140 basis points. Accounting for the introduction of the SDF at a higher rate than the reverse repo rate in April, effective rate hikes stand at 180 bps so far in 2022.

“Spillovers from geopolitical shocks are imparting considerable uncertainty to the inflation trajectory. More recently, food and metal prices have come off their peaks,” said the MPC’s statement.

“International crude oil prices have eased in recent weeks but remain elevated and volatile on supply concerns even as the global demand outlook is weakening. The appreciation of the US dollar can feed into imported inflation pressures.”

Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation has remained above the upper band of the RBI’s mandated 2-6 per cent range for six straight months up to June 2022.

The June inflation print was at 7.01 per cent. The RBI’s medium-term target for CPI inflation is 4 per cent.

Upside risks to domestic inflation increased significantly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February led to a sharp rise in global commodity prices.

ALSO READ: Rate sensitive shares trade firm as RBI hikes repo rate by 50 bps to 5.4%

The RBI retained its CPI inflation forecast of 6.7 per cent for the current financial year, with risks evenly balanced. The CPI forecast assumes the average price of crude oil for the Indian basket at $105 per barrel.

CPI inflation is seen at 7.1 per cent in July-September, 6.4 per cent in October-December and 5.8 per cent in January-March. The price gauge is seen at 5 per cent in the first quarter of 2023-24.

The RBI’s forecast point to the likelihood of the MPC failing to meet the mandate of ensuring that average inflation does not sustain above the target band for more than three successive quarters. In the event of failure, the RBI must provide an explanation to the government.

The MPC on Friday retained the real GDP growth forecast of 7.2 per cent for the current financial year. GDP growth for the first quarter of the next financial year is seen at 6.7 per cent.

Bond prices fell sharply after the policy statement with the yield on the 10-year benchmark bond climbing 10 basis points to 7.26 per cent. The bond market had hoped for a rate hike of 35 bps along with signals that the RBI may temper future rate hikes.

The rupee appreciated sharply versus the US dollar and was last at 79.07 per dollar compared to 79.47 per dollar at the previous close on Thursday.

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