It is that time of the year when markets await the Union Budget. From the time COVID-19 hit, the government has agreed to take a large GFD/GDP ratio (gross fiscal deficit/gross domestic product) in its stride, allowed for a sharp increase in its borrowing programme, leading to a significant increase in the public debt/GDP ratio. Expectedly, there are some calls for a fiscal consolidation, lest the debt becomes overly burdensome for future generations to pay or financial stability becomes an issue.

Can the government go for a fiscal consolidation immediately? The current economic landscape may not allow them to do so. The economy was anyways slowing over many quarters before COVID-19, implying structural impediments. With COVID-19, these impediments have probably only strengthened and thus the economy would need to be on policy crutches for full recovery to take shape.

Also Read:- As economies limp out of pandemic, here’s how CII wants policymakers to steer post-COVID recovery

A look at the data will make this clear. Advance GDP estimates (AE) published recently indicate that India is likely to grow at a real rate of 9.2 percent in FY22. The worry is weak private consumption demand and the still-frail consumer sentiment. The AE indicates that the private consumption expenditure will still be lower than the pre-COVID-19 level in FY22 by 2.9 percent. And, even more important is the fact that per capita GDP in FY22 at constant prices is at Rs 1,07,801 and this continues to be lower than the level of Rs 1,08,645 in FY20.

Petrol and diesel prices remain unchanged on January 21 - a notification issued by state-owned fuel retailers showed.

This comes after the Central government cut excise duty on November 4, 2021 to give relief from prices that had touched an all-time high.

The Central government cut the duty on petrol by Rs 5 per litre and that on diesel by Rs 10 a litre resulting in an equivalent reduction in retail pump rates. Following this, many states and Union Territories cut local sales tax or value-added tax (VAT) to give further relief to consumers.

In Delhi, fuel is relatively cheaper than the rest of the metros because the state government had earlier decided to reduce the VAT on petrol. Delhi reduced the VAT on petrol from 30 to 19.4 percent from December 1 midnight, bringing down the price by around Rs 8 to Rs 95.41 a litre. Diesel price also remains unchanged in the national capital at Rs 86.67 a litre.

In Mumbai, a November 4 cut reduced the price of petrol to Rs 109.98 a litre, which remains unchanged. Diesel is at Rs 94.14 a litre.

In Kolkata, petrol and diesel prices remained at Rs 104.67 and Rs 89.79. Petrol was at Rs 101.40 and diesel at Rs 91.43 in Chennai. In Hyderabad, petrol and diesel prices remained at Rs 108.20 per litre and Rs 94.62 per litre.

The states and union territories that had gone for VAT reduction after the excise duty cut by the Centre include Ladakh, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi, Sikkim, Mizoram, Daman and Diu, Karnataka and Puducherry. Others include Dadra and Nagar Haveli, Chandigarh, Chhattisgarh, Assam, Madhya Pradesh, Tripura, Gujarat, Nagaland, Punjab, Goa, Meghalaya, Odisha, Rajasthan, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Andaman and Nicobar, Bihar, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana.

States that have so far not lowered VAT include are largely opposition ruled states including Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Tamil Nadu. TMC-governed West Bengal, Left-ruled Kerala, TRS-led Telangana and YSR Congress-ruled Andhra Pradesh have also not cut VAT.

Congress-ruled Punjab, which is due for election by March, has seen the biggest drop in petrol prices after it slashed VAT the most. The union territory of Ladakh saw the biggest fall in diesel rates.

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The year 2022 is dubbed as a year of opportunity for the real estate industry. As per estimates, the economy is expected to grow steadily at 8-9 percent, stimulating demand for better infrastructure, and larger homes. Since the real estate sector is expected to contribute 13 percent to India’s GDP by 2025, the upcoming Union Budget is quintessential to discern the sector’s growth trajectory, and determine its larger impact on the national economy.

Amid the emergence of the new COVID-19 variant(s), the housing market remains bullish. We expect to see growing demand, especially for ready-to-move-in homes across the affordable and luxury segments. We are also confident that the strong focus on infrastructure will act as an impetus for the sector’s progress.

In last year’s budget, we witnessed landmark initiatives such as the boost to affordable housing through rate tax deduction on home loans, among other measures such as debt financing for REITs and InvITs, and infrastructure upgrades. The impact of these implementations has provided the sector with a strong foundation that led to the stimulation of affordable housing and the rental housing market. With the government aiming to build 20 million affordable homes in urban areas, we anticipate more sops such as extending rate tax deductions on home loans for another year more.

In addition, new regulations to encourage rental housing, single-window permits, and infrastructure status for the sector are some long-standing requests made by developers across India. We are also hopeful to see more states waive off property taxes, as seen in Maharashtra, for affordable projects under a certain size specification. The industry is also looking forward to revising the definition of affordable housing.

Another important expectation from the government is a reduction in the GST and input tax rates of construction raw materials to 5 percent (from the current 28 percent for cement, 18 percent for iron and steel, and 12 percent for kiln) or an input tax credit. These measures will give the sector a much-required breather without developers increasing property prices to sustain the rising input costs.

We also expect to see a GST waiver for under-construction projects, and are hopeful that the tax rebate on home loan interests can be extended to Rs 5 lakh (instead of the present Rs 2 lakh). The latter would ensure a stronger demand from the housing market, especially in the affordable segment.

The introduction of 5G will boost connectivity and reinvigorate the Smart Cities Mission. It will also lead to the introduction of newer businesses and services such as automated factories, smoother and faster supply chain solutions, and deeper penetration of education technology, impacting the lives of children and adults equally. This will also result in the increased demand for real estate space to set up data centres to support more digitisation. As per a Savills India report, the demand for such areas will touch 15-18 million square feet by 2025. A mechanism could be devised to ensure these services come at nominal costs so that the benefits can be accessed by a larger demographic.

This year has been declared as the International Year of Basic sciences for Sustainable Development by the United Nations. Being a sector that is heavily reliant on raw materials and resources for project completion, government-led incentives could encourage developers to invest in green projects that minimise the use of natural resources such as river sand, and encourage and subsidise the costs of alternatives such as robo sand. The government could also consider concessions for homebuyers to invest in green buildings akin to their policies while introducing electric vehicles.

In conclusion, while the government has continued to boost the real estate sector, we believe it needs to recognise real estate as an industry. This will accelerate its growth, make the sector more organised, and enable developers to avail loans at lower rates from banks and enter the priority sector.

We firmly believe the upcoming budget will give realty and its allied sectors much-needed support and encouragement. It will have a positive trickle-down effect on the entire economy — further paving the way for sustainable development across sectors, and boosting end-user consumption.

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Consumer prices in the United Kingdom have risen at the fastest pace in almost 30 years as higher costs for energy, transportation, food and furniture squeezed household incomes.

Inflation measured by the consumer price index accelerated to 5.4% in the 12 months through December, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday. That is the highest rate since March 1992, when inflation stood at 7.1%, and above the 5.1% seen a month earlier.

Economists warned that inflation is likely to rise further in coming months as the full impact of a recent surge in energy prices hits consumers. Gas and electricity bills for millions of households are expected to rise by 50% or more in April when a semi-annual adjustment in the energy price cap takes effect.

The government is under pressure to mitigate the jump in energy prices, with inflation now rising faster than wages. Soaring energy prices, supply chain backups and other issues led the Bank of England to raise interest rates last month for the first time in more than three years, increasing costs for borrowers, despite concern about the economic fallout from a surge in COVID-19 infections driven by the omicron variant.

What is of particular concern is that the change from November has come mainly from an increase in the price of food, said Kitty Ussher, chief economist for the Institute of Directors. Not only does this provide additional evidence that inflation is becoming endemic rather than transitory, it also bodes ill for households facing multiple rises in the cost of living this spring.

Also Read Like:- What do rising bond yields to signal to the markets?

The Bank of England, which tries to keep inflation below 2%, in December raised its benchmark interest rate to 0.25% from a record low 0.1%.

Shafiq Shabir, head of electronic trading at the broker Intertrader, said interest rates may climb to 1% by the end of this year following the eye-watering inflation figures.

Wage growth is expected to sit at 4.5% for 2022, meaning many will see their real-term incomes fall behind the increasingly tight cost of living.

 India’s benchmark 10-year government bond yields surged to a high of 6.66 percent before easing to 6.60 percent on Wednesday, January 19.

 What has led to this spike? Factors including rising crude oil prices, risks to inflation and earlier-than-foreseen interest rate hikes signalled by the US Federal Reserve had set the stage for hardening bond yields. Logically, rising bond yields have triggered speculation that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may finally exit from its accommodative stance and start tightening interest rates.

Bond yields move in the opposite direction to prices.

Interest rates are inching up 

“G-Sec yields have firmed up and deposit rates too are slowly climbing,” said D K Joshi, chief economist at the rating agency Crisil Ltd. Joshi added that a change in rate stance is imminent, “if the Omicron (a variant of COVID-19) turns out to be a transitory affair

Remember, RBI’s monetary policy committee (MPC) has adopted a prolonged accommodative stance in view of the slow recovery of the economy from the pandemic’s impact.  It has so far ignored near-term inflationary pressures in a bid to support growth.

Yet, rising bond yields indicate interest rates will have to eventually harden, said Harihar Krishnamurthy, a market expert.

“Rate hikes may follow the market. And market rates have actually edged up anyway following global cues and the inevitable fallout of Indian inflation,” said Krishnamurthy.

A rate reversal is also possible due to the fact that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and tax collections “look very good” and the impact of Omicron seems to be mild.

“So a change in stance followed by a reverse repo rate hike and then a repo rate hike is likely,” said Krishnamurthy. The repo rate is the rate at which RBI infuses liquidity into the banking system. The reverse repo is the rate at which RBI drains liquidity.

 Inflation threat looming

Data shows inflation with an upward bias. A consistently high inflation rate can force the MPC to reverse the rate path. Already, there is a debate within the MPC on the future course of the inflation fight. One of the MPC members, Jayanth Varma, has long argued against the continuation of an accommodative stance, saying the efficacy of monetary policy in fighting the Omicron variant is limited.

India's headline retail inflation jumped to 5.59 percent in December, thanks to an unfavourable base effect. The MPC has the mandate to keep inflation within a broader target band of 2-6 percent.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation print in December was 68 basis points higher than the November level of 4.91 percent, data released on January 12 by the National Statistical Office showed. It is the highest inflation has been since July 2021, when it had also come in at 5.59 percent.

Despite the sharp increase in inflation in December, the average for the last quarter of 2021, at 5.0 percent, is marginally lower than expected. RBI had forecast CPI inflation would average 5.1 percent in October-December.

What next?

The next meeting of MPC will take place in February. The MPC may not yet hike the rates, but many expect a change in the policy stance, rating agency ICRA Ltd wrote in a note.

“Following the fresh uncertainty triggered by Omicron and the associated restrictions, the rating agency expects a status quo on the stance of the Monetary Policy as well as the reverse repo rate in the upcoming meeting of the MPC to be held in February 2022, in spite of the rise in the retail inflation in December 2021,” said the note.

To be sure, not everyone shares this view. According to Moragn Stanley Research, the MPC may increase the reverse repo in February to mark the start of policy normalization.

“We expect the February policy to mark the start of policy normalization with a reverse repo rate hike to normalise the policy rate corridor,” said the Morgan Stanley note.

Omicron concerns

The impact of Omicron will be key. In the last policy, the rate-setting panel had clearly spelt out its concerns on the spread of the variant.

“India is being lashed by global spillovers. The main conduit has been financial markets so far but the channels themselves are diversifying. The biggest risk of contagion is now from the new variant. Unless a clearer picture emerges on the near-term outlook, we must take guard and resume battle readiness again,” RBI Deputy Governor Micheal Patra said, according to the Minutes of the meeting.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das too voiced concerns on the Omicron factor. “There is growing uncertainty regarding the evolving global macroeconomic outlook,” Das said.

"The emergence of the Omicron variant may cast some shadow on the momentum of contact-intensive services that were just showing signs of recovery in recent months. The threat of Omicron is also imparting additional volatility to the financial markets," Das said.

With 2,82,970 new coronavirus infections being reported in a day, India’s total tally of COVID-19 cases rose to 3,79,01,241, which includes 8,961 cases of the Omicron variant, according to health ministry data updated on Wednesday. Active cases have increased to 18,31,000, the highest in 232 days.

There is scant downside risk to the Indian economy in the last months of this financial year from the Omicron coronavirus variant, according to economists polled by Reuters who said New Delhi should focus on fiscal prudence in its February budget.

Asia’s third-largest economy is in the midst of a resurgence in coronavirus cases driven by the new variant that has forced most states to impose localised restrictions.

The January 11-18 poll of over 45 economists forecast 5.0% economic growth this quarter, a sharp downgrade from the 6.0% given in December, finishing the year at 9.2% compared with 9.5% in the previous month’s poll.

But nearly two-thirds of those responding to an additional question, 21 of 32, said there was limited downside to the outlook for the rest of this fiscal year which ends in March.

Nine said it was at risk of downgrades, and two said it was prone to upgrades. The median growth projection for the next fiscal year was upgraded to 8.0% from 7.5% a month ago.

The current phase of restrictions is not as harsh as it was during the previous waves. So, I think Omicron and the economic damage it inflicts is a Jan-March story and will only be limited to this fiscal year," said Madhavi Arora, lead economist at Emkay Global Financial Services.

Arora reckons the first quarter of the next financial year starting in April will get an extra boost once the third wave passes, assuming it does.

The latest poll also estimated economic growth at 14.7% for the same quarter.

Inflation was expected to peak at 5.8% this quarter and then fall, remaining under the Reserve Bank of India’s 6.0% upper threshold until at least the end of fiscal 2023-24, taking pressure off the Bank for future interest rate rises.

India’s finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the country’s 2022/2023 federal budget on February 1, providing new targets for government spending, tax receipts, economic growth and fiscal deficits.

When asked what the government should focus on, 16 of 23 respondents said fiscal prudence rather than expansion, despite pandemic-related risks.

"India and other emerging markets will have to start thinking about consolidating their COVID-19 year budget deficits in a global monetary environment where the U.S. Fed is starting to normalise policy," said Miguel Chanco, senior Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

"We are expecting quite aggressive tightening from the Fed this year and that is going to raise borrowing costs not just for India but for most EMs."

The country’s federal fiscal deficit surged to 135.1% in the April-November period of the last financial year but in the current year it narrowed to 46.2% for the same period, helped by a rise in tax collections.

The fiscal deficit target for next financial year was predicted to be 6.0%, and 5.5% for FY 2023/2024, both lower than this year’s 6.8%.

"They will be pretty conservative with spending and revenue projections," said Robert Carnell, head of Asia Pacific research at ING.

"It is really more of a revenue worry from Omicron, so I do not think you should be spending on the off-chance that Omicron is bad. Because that sort of bakes in the fact that the targets get missed at that point."

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