Blog for Stock tips, Equity tips, Commodity tips, Forex tips: Sharetipsinfo.com

India's services sector expanded at the weakest pace since March, survey data released October 6 showed.

The sector expanded for a 14th month in a row in September, with the S&P Global India Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) coming in at 54.3 last month.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion in activity while a sub-50 print signals contraction.

The services PMI was 57.2 in August.

"The Indian service sector has overcome many adversities in recent months, with the latest PMI data continuing to show a strong performance despite some loss of growth momentum in September.," noted Pollyanna De Lima, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

India's key inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), returned to 7 percent in August from July’s five-month low of 6.71 percent. The Reserve Bank of India is now just one month away from failure, with CPI inflation having been outside the central bank's 2-6 percent tolerance range for all of 2022.

The RBI is deemed to have failed if CPI inflation is outside the 2-6 percent range for three consecutive quarters. It averaged 6.3 percent in January-March, 7.3 percent in April-June, and will exceed 6 percent again in July-September.

The central bank has raised interest rates sharply since early May in a bid to curb inflation. It is expected to tighten policy again when its rate-setting panel meets in December.

Unmesh Kulkarni – Managing Director and Senior Advisor at Julius Baer India

The monetary policy was on expected lines, and the fixed income markets were pretty much anticipating the 50 basis point hike in policy rates, especially after the 75 bp hike by the US Fed along with their hawkish messaging.

Overall, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is concerned about the emerging shocks on the global front – Covid shocks followed by Ukraine shocks and, now, the rate hike aggression shocks by global central banks – as these shocks tend to have spillover effect on other economies.

On the other hand, the RBI Governor exuded a lot of confidence around the state of the Indian economy – resilience of domestic demand, encouraging signs around credit growth, capacity utilisation, the government's thrust on capital expenditure, and the strength of our forex reserves along with better performance of rupee vis-à-vis other currencies.

On the liquidity front, given the advanced stage of tightening that we are already in, one would have expected an official change in the policy stance to include the word “tightening”; however, the MPC has chosen to stay with the stance “withdrawal of accommodation”. RBI has been successful in bringing down the excess system liquidity through its VRRR (variable rate reverse repo) auctions. The money markets have reacted sharply to the tightening liquidity, with the call rates hovering around 5.75 percent – 5.85 percent in the past one week, and closer to the enhanced repo rate of 5.90 percent.

Also read - As RBI raises repo rate, here are 10 rate-sensitive stocks to bet on

Inflation remains on the higher side and above the RBI’s comfort zone. The RBI has retained its overall projections for inflation (as per the previous policy) and expects CPI to moderate sequentially over the next few quarters, from the current expected 7.1 percent in the second quarter to five percent in FY24. Despite easing of crude oil prices and food inflation, RBI perceives uncertainty on the overall inflation trajectory on supply concerns as well as the strength of the US dollar (leading to imported inflation).

Given the lower-than-expected GDP growth in the first quarter (13.5 percent versus projected 16.2 percent), the MPC has lowered its growth outlook for FY23 from 7.2 percent to seven percent, but raised the growth outlook for the coming quarters, as well as for the first quarter of FY24 (7.2 percent versus earlier projection of 6.7 percent). This projection seems optimistic and will likely be tested over time, as the world is staring at a recession, and not a phase of accelerated growth, as a fallout of the continuous and massive rate hikes by global central banks.

Also read - RBI Monetary Policy Live Updates: MPC to discuss RBI's reply to government on failing to meet inflation target

Overall, the policy managed to perform a balancing act, between inflation and global concerns on the one hand, and providing optimism around the domestic growth/demand situation on the other. We do expect the RBI to continue on the path of rate hikes for some more time (December and February policies).

Although the Governor mentioned that the MPC would avoid providing guidance around a terminal policy rate, it would be reasonable to assume a repo rate of 6.5 percent at the end of FY23, especially against the backdrop of an aggressive Fed, dollar strengthening and rising global bond yields.

In the near term, as fixed income markets had already priced in this 50 bp rate hike, there is a possibility of some pullback in yields; however, the yield curve will continue to be under upward pressure until the markets start sensing that we are close to the end of the tightening.

The Reserve Bank of India is expected to increase its policy rate by half a point for the third time in a row as the currency’s plunge to a record low this month complicates the battle against inflation.

The Reserve Bank of India’s six-member monetary policy committee will raise its repurchase rate by 50 basis points to 5.9%, according to 34 of 46 economists surveyed by Bloomberg as of Thursday. Eleven forecast the rate will rise by 35 basis points to 5.75%, while one sees a quarter-point increase.

Governor Shaktikanta Das may opt to dial up his hawkish rhetoric from his tone at the August meeting when he pledged to do “whatever it takes” to cool inflation that has stayed above 6% this year. Since then, India’s price gains quickened anew and the currency slump deepened as the Fed raised rates by 75 basis points for a third consecutive time and amplified a hawkish signal while warning of a painful slowdown needed to curb US inflation.

“The biggest point of worry currently is the significant depreciation in the currency,” said Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist of Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. Deteriorating reserves curtail RBI’s ability to intervene so “higher interest rates will have to be maintained with hawkish tone in the policy to support the rupee.”

Here’s what to watch out for when Das addresses media:

Oil, Food Prices

With oil prices falling below $80 a barrel from more than $120 in June, the RBI will probably revise its oil price assumption on Friday from the $105 level it factored in previously. It’s unlikely to make any significant changes to this year’s 7.2% economic growth forecast, or 6.7% inflation outlook, given pressures from food grain prices.

“The inflation-growth mix is likely to remain tricky,” HSBC Holdings Plc economists led by Pranjul Bhandari wrote in a note this week. They expect the RBI to hike by 50 basis points each at the September and December meetings and see average inflation staying above the 4% mid-point of the RBI’s target range in the current and next fiscal years as economic growth slows.

In a separate survey by Bloomberg on India’s economy, retail inflation is seen to average at 5.1% next fiscal year from a 6.6% estimate in the year ending March while the latest projections on economic growth moderated to 7% and to 6.1% for fiscal years 2023 and 2024. Economists polled on the policy path expect the key rate to rise by another 25 basis points by March 2023 after a half-point hike on Friday.

FX Reserves

The rupee is down about 10% this year and trading near a record low even after the RBI mounted a staunch currency defense in the past year -- evident from an almost $100 billion drop in its foreign-currency reserves, with some of the decline attributed to revaluation. Das had said the reserves “provide a cushion against external shocks.”

A broad consensus among market participants was that anything lower than a 50 basis-point hike, or the governor sounding less hawkish may push the currency even lower.

“Rupee readjustment is catching up faster than peers, as it was held artificially stronger in past adjustments by policy intervention,” Madhavi Arora, lead economist at Emkay Global Financial Services wrote in a note, “The FX war chest has already dipped an estimated more than $100 billion, while the war is still pretty much on.”

Bonds, Liquidity

Bond traders are watching for signs from the central bank on how it plans to manage liquidity in the financial system that’s been tightening.

While the RBI’s intervention in the foreign-currency market is reducing the supply of rupees, increased domestic activity after a broad reopening from virus restrictions has contributed to the strain.

The liquidity crunch along with RBI’s rate hikes are reflected in rising shorter-term borrowing costs. Five-year yields are edging higher than benchmark 10-year notes, and a flattening yield curve is delivering the narrowest spread between 10- and 2-year yields since 2020.

The bond market is also awaiting the results of index reviews by FTSE Russell and JPMorgan Chase & Co. and whether or not India will be included.

Services industry must be competitive and not seek subsidies to boost exports, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said on September 29.

“The focus must shift to strengthening ourselves to competing with the best in the world,” Goyal told industry at an event organised by the Services Exports Promotion Council. “If we look at global headwinds, we will have an opportunity to wedge our way.”

The government has gradually been removing all subsidies from export system as they make the country uncompetitive, holding it back, the minister said.

Services exports will rise going ahead but on their own competitive strength, Goyal said, adding that India could not keep helping uncompetitive industries.

India has again extended its foreign trade policy by six months from September end. The services industry was keenly waiting for a new policy, in anticipation of some benefits in lieu of the Service Exports from India Scheme.

Meanwhile, Goyal reiterated India’s ‘ambitious’ target for exports to rise to $2 trillion by 2030, including $1 trillion of services exports.

Services exports have the potential to grow at twice the pace of goods exports, he added.

Aircraft lessors based out of Gujarat International Finance Tec-City (GIFT City) are likely to lease out about 60 aircraft, including helicopters, by March 2023, said Dipesh Shah, executive director (Development), International Financial Services Centres Authority (IFSCA), on Wednesday.

"The aircraft leasing framework came out in 2021. And in just a few months after that, in August, the first aircraft was leased out from GIFT City in India," Shah said during a conference organised by aviation consultancy firm Ishka. The IFSCA regulates the financial institutions present in GIFT City.

In May 2022, the IFSCA further enabled the IFSC framework and now, there are 17 aircraft lessors in GIFT City, Shah said.

"They have already released 11 aircraft into India.

And in this financial year, by March 2023, we have been given projections by 17 lessors that 40-50 more aircraft will be leased from GIFT City," he added.

This means that by the end of March 2023, about 60 aircraft are expected to be leased out of GIFT City. However, none of these would be narrow-body aircraft like A320neo and B737 or wide-body ones like A350 and B787 that are mainly used by commercial airliners in India.

The 11 aircraft leased out of GIFT City to date include helicopters, regional aircraft, trainer aircraft and private jets.

Indian airlines have a combined fleet of around 700 planes, and over 85 per cent of them are on lease. A majority of lessors are based in Ireland due to its attractive tax policy and ease of doing business.

The Government of India and the Gujarat government have provided several incentives, such as tax holiday, no withholding tax on lease payments and interest payments, for the aircraft leasing companies to set up shop in GIFT City.

Shah said, "The aircraft leasing business has taken off from GIFT IFSC with a significant number of international and domestic lessors now setting up base here."

"The response to the regulatory and competitive tax framework has been very encouraging,” he added. “Going forward, GIFT IFSC would be contributing immensely to the aircraft leasing opportunities, which are emerging from India."

Every year September 29 is celebrated as World Heart Day, and the focus this year for the World Heart Foundation is ‘Use heart for every heart’.

Cardiovascular Diseases (CVDs) are a leading cause of deaths in India, with some estimates showing one in four deaths attributed to CVDs. According to current estimates India has the CVD capital of the world. Stories of patients in their 30s and 40s succumbing to heart disease, unfortunately, have become frighteningly commonplace.

A Stich In Time…

When it comes to one’s health, especially heart health, the adage ‘A stitch in time saves nine’ is apt. There is a tendency, at least among a few, to avoid regular health check-ups. When your car needs regular servicing/check-ups, how can it not apply to something way more complex such as the human body, especially the heart!

To understand its importance, picture this: the heart beats about 100,000 times in a day, and about 35 million times in a year. During an average lifetime, the human heart will beat more than 2.5 billion times! This underscores the importance of regular check-ups.

Along with regular check-ups, it is important to follow a systematic, clean, and alert lifestyle. Mild to moderate exercise of about 30 minutes five times a week is recommended. Avoid sitting for prolonged periods of time — those in desk-facing jobs need to take regular, short breaks. To the extent possible, eating healthy is a must — avoid processed, sugars, oils, and animal fat-based foods. It is equally important to manage stress, and to clock at least seven hours of good sleep daily. Those who smoke tobacco-based products are at a higher risk of heart ailments, and this should be avoided.

Those who have co-morbidities, such as hypertension (blood pressure), high cholesterol, and/or diabetes need to be even more vigilant about heart-related problems.

That Discomfort

An extension of being alert is to know the symptoms associated with a cardiac arrest, and what to do in the event of a heart attack — because it could happen anywhere, anytime.

The symptoms include chest pain (discomfort). While it is classically described as crushing/pressure, these symptoms can be atypical, especially in women. Often times, it is just a sensation of shortness of breath, fatigue, or just not feeling right. Any discomfort that is present for a few minutes without resolving ought to be evaluated urgently in a hospital.

In the event of such discomfort, do not wait to report it to your doctor till the next appointment. This is an emergency. Take a full dose of aspirin, and get to the nearest hospital, preferably by ambulance. Get someone else to drive you if an ambulance is not available.

Doctor, How Did This Happen?

It is important to know what tests such as the electrocardiogram (ECG) and echocardiogram (Echo) mean. It is not unreasonable to get ECGs as we get older, and to be more aggressive than what the Western guidelines recommend, given our higher prevalence to heart ailments.

An ECG can pick up in certain cases if the patient has had heart attacks, and can be invaluable in picking up certain problems when one is having a chest pain. A normal ECG does not preclude having an undiagnosed blockage in the heart vessel (which could lead to a heart attack). Similarly, an Echo only tells you how the pump is, and how the valves are — it does not diagnose the blood vessel supply to the heart. A coronary CT or an angiogram is what shows the blood vessel supply to the heart.

All this does not mean that a layperson can turn to these tests and diagnose oneself. The key idea is that a regular check up with one’s healthcare provider or with a cardiologist might be warranted to truly optimise one’s cardiac health.

Tough Calls

It is important that any interventional procedure is only done when the potential benefit outweighs the risk of the procedure. The problem is that patients are often told it is better to not undergo any procedure because of the ‘risk’ involved. What is often unsaid is that there is bigger ‘risk’ in doing nothing! It is these higher-risk patients who often derive the most benefit from these procedures.

It is often the case with complex heart disease, and extensive blockages to have diverse recommendations based on the same test report. There is a widespread misconception that patients with far advanced CADs often derive no meaningful clinical benefit. Paradoxically, studies have suggested that for the high-risk coronary disease patients appropriate revascularisation (along with good medical therapy) can help improve both quality of life and reduce adverse clinical events.

Sometimes recommendations are based on outdated studies, or the cardiologist’s own procedural skillsets (or biases). Hence, unfortunately, patients are told what the doctor can do, and not what the patients need. A question that I have often asked when teaching complex angioplasty is: “If we as interventionalists knew getting into the procedure that we would not fail, which patients/procedures would we take on?”

Science On Our Side

Today the science in the procedures and the technology assisting the doctor has advanced tremendously that the success rate in complex operations (where there are 100 percent blockage in the blood vessels) is over 95 percent.

Complex and technically-demanding procedures such as retrograde and antegrade dissections can be done today. Experts who have done hundreds, if not thousands of these procedures, are comfortable switching between various strategies even during a procedure, thereby leading to a high success rate.

Coronary artery disease should not continue to be the top ailment. A healthy lifestyle, and preventive measures can significantly reduce the risks that lead to heart problems. Do not be afraid to ask questions to your heart doctor both about the procedure, as well as the doctor’s qualifications. Do not ignore symptoms at any point of time. Finally, any blockage can be treated/opened — do not let anyone tell you there are no options.

This World Heart Day let’s take a decision to increase our awareness, for being aware is a strong first step.

Every year September 29 is celebrated as World Heart Day, and the focus this year for the World Heart Foundation is ‘Use heart for every heart’.

Cardiovascular Diseases (CVDs) are a leading cause of deaths in India, with some estimates showing one in four deaths attributed to CVDs. According to current estimates India has the CVD capital of the world. Stories of patients in their 30s and 40s succumbing to heart disease, unfortunately, have become frighteningly commonplace.

A Stich In Time…

When it comes to one’s health, especially heart health, the adage ‘A stitch in time saves nine’ is apt. There is a tendency, at least among a few, to avoid regular health check-ups. When your car needs regular servicing/check-ups, how can it not apply to something way more complex such as the human body, especially the heart!

To understand its importance, picture this: the heart beats about 100,000 times in a day, and about 35 million times in a year. During an average lifetime, the human heart will beat more than 2.5 billion times! This underscores the importance of regular check-ups.

Along with regular check-ups, it is important to follow a systematic, clean, and alert lifestyle. Mild to moderate exercise of about 30 minutes five times a week is recommended. Avoid sitting for prolonged periods of time — those in desk-facing jobs need to take regular, short breaks. To the extent possible, eating healthy is a must — avoid processed, sugars, oils, and animal fat-based foods. It is equally important to manage stress, and to clock at least seven hours of good sleep daily. Those who smoke tobacco-based products are at a higher risk of heart ailments, and this should be avoided.

Those who have co-morbidities, such as hypertension (blood pressure), high cholesterol, and/or diabetes need to be even more vigilant about heart-related problems.

That Discomfort

An extension of being alert is to know the symptoms associated with a cardiac arrest, and what to do in the event of a heart attack — because it could happen anywhere, anytime.

The symptoms include chest pain (discomfort). While it is classically described as crushing/pressure, these symptoms can be atypical, especially in women. Often times, it is just a sensation of shortness of breath, fatigue, or just not feeling right. Any discomfort that is present for a few minutes without resolving ought to be evaluated urgently in a hospital.

In the event of such discomfort, do not wait to report it to your doctor till the next appointment. This is an emergency. Take a full dose of aspirin, and get to the nearest hospital, preferably by ambulance. Get someone else to drive you if an ambulance is not available.

Doctor, How Did This Happen?

It is important to know what tests such as the electrocardiogram (ECG) and echocardiogram (Echo) mean. It is not unreasonable to get ECGs as we get older, and to be more aggressive than what the Western guidelines recommend, given our higher prevalence to heart ailments.

An ECG can pick up in certain cases if the patient has had heart attacks, and can be invaluable in picking up certain problems when one is having a chest pain. A normal ECG does not preclude having an undiagnosed blockage in the heart vessel (which could lead to a heart attack). Similarly, an Echo only tells you how the pump is, and how the valves are — it does not diagnose the blood vessel supply to the heart. A coronary CT or an angiogram is what shows the blood vessel supply to the heart.

All this does not mean that a layperson can turn to these tests and diagnose oneself. The key idea is that a regular check up with one’s healthcare provider or with a cardiologist might be warranted to truly optimise one’s cardiac health.

Tough Calls

It is important that any interventional procedure is only done when the potential benefit outweighs the risk of the procedure. The problem is that patients are often told it is better to not undergo any procedure because of the ‘risk’ involved. What is often unsaid is that there is bigger ‘risk’ in doing nothing! It is these higher-risk patients who often derive the most benefit from these procedures.

It is often the case with complex heart disease, and extensive blockages to have diverse recommendations based on the same test report. There is a widespread misconception that patients with far advanced CADs often derive no meaningful clinical benefit. Paradoxically, studies have suggested that for the high-risk coronary disease patients appropriate revascularisation (along with good medical therapy) can help improve both quality of life and reduce adverse clinical events.

Sometimes recommendations are based on outdated studies, or the cardiologist’s own procedural skillsets (or biases). Hence, unfortunately, patients are told what the doctor can do, and not what the patients need. A question that I have often asked when teaching complex angioplasty is: “If we as interventionalists knew getting into the procedure that we would not fail, which patients/procedures would we take on?”

Science On Our Side

Today the science in the procedures and the technology assisting the doctor has advanced tremendously that the success rate in complex operations (where there are 100 percent blockage in the blood vessels) is over 95 percent.

Complex and technically-demanding procedures such as retrograde and antegrade dissections can be done today. Experts who have done hundreds, if not thousands of these procedures, are comfortable switching between various strategies even during a procedure, thereby leading to a high success rate.

Coronary artery disease should not continue to be the top ailment. A healthy lifestyle, and preventive measures can significantly reduce the risks that lead to heart problems. Do not be afraid to ask questions to your heart doctor both about the procedure, as well as the doctor’s qualifications. Do not ignore symptoms at any point of time. Finally, any blockage can be treated/opened — do not let anyone tell you there are no options.

This World Heart Day let’s take a decision to increase our awareness, for being aware is a strong first step.