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Market Mantra Report

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august10th,2017

Market Mantra Report

 

Major Headlines:

Market Summary:

Microeconomic Front:

Corporate Front:

Trading Ideas:

Events for the day:

Global Signals:

Sectoral& Stock Screening:

 

US stocks recover in last hour to close with marginal losses as Trump rhetoric see 'war' threat fade away as better sense prevails. Bond yields hit 2.24% while Gold also sees rally easing as equities recover.

                                                             

 

 

Major headlines:

·         RBI may need to drain up to $22 billion as inflows add to excess liquidity

·         Wouldn’t have approved demonetization

·         Buayantbitcoinstriscryptobubble fears

 

 

Indian Indices:Asian indices opened in the green with Japanese 'Nikkei" seeing gains being sold into as caution prevail before important jobs data due on Friday. South Korean stocks also see some gains even as geopolitical risk emanates stronger than ever before.

Nifty breached 9900 before closing at 9908 with Bank Nifty being the main culprit hitting 24300 as financials lead the downside. Mid cap carnage and leveraged trade unwinding continues to see sentiment turn weak even as local mutual fund flows support the market. For today expect rallies in the morning session to see selling emerge closer to 9950.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 31653.32, down by 144.52 points or 0.45% after trading in a range of 31588.26 and 31756.27. There were 9 stocks advancing against 22 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading in red; the BSE Mid cap index was down by 1.12%, while Small cap index was down by 1.37%.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 9856.85, down by 51.20 points or 0.52% after trading in a range of 9835.95 and 9879.20. There were 12 stocks advancing against 39 stocks declining on the index.

MARKET INDICATORS

·           

 

Group ATopGainers

 

 

Company

Price (Rs)

% chg

Techm

411.75

5.01

BBTC

908.45

3.50

Hdil

59.20

3.14

MMTC

58.90

2.88

Group ATopLosers

 

 

Natcophar

739.75

-10.94

Tatamotors

386.20

-7.33

Tatamtrdvr

224.60

-7.32

DBL

533.25

-5.07

 

 

Technical view: Nifty now finds support around 9845 while 9950 will act as resistance on the upside. Bank Nifty finds support around 24000 while 24650 will act as resistance on the upside.

 

 

 

Exide Industries (Sell Below 207 with SL at 211 for Target of 200): The stock has been consolidating from the past four weeks and has finally broken down from a Symmetrical Triangle Pattern on the daily chart. Exide has also cracked below its long term 200-DMA, which further accentuates our short term bearish stance on the stock. Other oscillators also indicate that current weakness is likely to extend.

Economy Snippets:

The government has notified the timeline for furnishing final tax returns for July and August under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime.

 

A war of words over foreign influence on Indian policymaking broke out on Tuesday after NITI Aayog vice-chairman-designate Rajiv Kumar suggested in a newspaper column that Indian-American economists were fading away as part of the ongoing policy transformation in the government. 

 

The government crackdown against 331 “suspected shell companies” has hit several investors, including mutual funds and small investors, who hold shares worth nearly Rs 9,000 crore in these

 

Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were Tech Mahindra up by 3.73%, AurobindoPharma up by 2.66%, Dr. Reddy’s Lab up by 1.31%, Lupin up by 1.15% and Infosys up by 1.10%. On the flip side, Tata Motors - DVR down by 7.35%, Tata Motors down by 6.65%, Eicher Motors down by 4.03%, BPCL down by 3.50% and Vedanta down by 2.07% were the top losers.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were IT up by 0.40% and TECK up by 0.26%, while Industrials down by 2.01%, Auto down by 2.01%, Power down by 1.43%, Utilities down by 1.42% and Metal down by 1.40% were the losing indices on BSE.The top gainers on the Sensex were Dr. Reddy’s Lab up by 1.50%, Lupin up by 1.19%, Infosys up by 1.05%, HDFC up by 0.74% and Sun Pharma up by 0.68%.

 

 

 

 

On the global front:On the global front, Asian markets were trading in red, as investors fretted on lingering North Korea tensions, sending Seoul shares skidding to two-month lows even as the previous day’s rush into safe-haven assets appeared to slow. Japan’s core machinery orders unexpectedly fell for a third consecutive month in June, underscoring companies’ reluctance to boost spending and conflicting with recent signs that the economic recovery is gathering momentum.

 

Global Signals:The Asian markets were trading in red; Hang Seng decreased 343.96 points or 1.24% to 27,413.13, Taiwan Weighted decreased 150.43 points or 1.44% to 10,319.95, Shanghai Composite decreased 31.12 points or 0.95% to 3,244.46, Nikkei 225 decreased 20.57 points or 0.1% to 19,718.14, KOSPI Index decreased 7.65 points or 0.32% to 2,360.74, Jakarta Composite decreased 3.61 points or 0.06% to 5,820.39 and FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI decreased 1.17 points or 0.07% to 1,776.77.

 

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Market Mantra Report

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august08th,2017

Market Mantra Report

 

Major Headlines:

Market Summary:

Microeconomic Front:

Corporate Front:

Trading Ideas:

Events for the day:

Global Signals:

Sectoral& Stock Screening:

 

Technology stocks drive US indices to a new high as light volumes keeps the unstoppable bull charge going. Oil, Gold and Bond yields remain range bound as ETF flows continue to see money chase equities.

                                                             

 

 

Major headlines:

·         India’s major ports see rise in cargo traffic by 4.13%

·         China’s July exports, imports weaker than expected cloud global outlook

·         BhartiAirtel subsidiary selling stake in BhartiInfratel for up to $400 million

 

 

Indian Indices:Asian indices opened on a quiet note as profit booking was the call in early trade. With China to release trade data later today most would focus on growth numbers to further validate investment buying as valuations reach stretched levels. 

Nifty saw a strong opening get sold into as last hour selling further dragged the index into the red. Buying in Metals and PSU Banks was evident while selling emerged in IT, Media and Pharma stocks. For today expect another day of sector/stock specific action as the index remains range bound.  

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 32045.79, down by 227.88 points or 0.71% after trading in a range of 31915.20 and 32354.77. There were 6 stocks advancing against 25 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading in red; the BSE Mid cap index was down by 1.02%, while Small cap index was down by 1.11%.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 9989.00, down by 68.40 points or 0.68% after trading in a range of 9947.00 and 10083.80. There were 11 stocks advancing against 40 stocks declining on the index.

MARKET INDICATORS

·           

 

Group ATopGainers

 

 

Company

Price (Rs)

% chg

DBL

578.55

7.55

Edelweiss

243.70

6.23

Hindalco

239.00

4.99

MRPL

137.85

4.51

Group ATopLosers

 

 

Hdil

64.75

-6.70

Unitech

8.30

-6.21

JPassociat

27.25

-6.03

Sparc

367.80

-3.98

 

 

 

Technical view: Nifty finds support around 10000 while 10100 will act as resistance on the upside. Bank Nifty also faces resistance around 25100 while 24750 will act as support on the downside.

 

 

RadicoKhaitan (Buy Above 152 with SL at 149 for Target of 159): After consolidating for past three trading sessions, the stock has broken out from a Flag Pattern on the lower time frame charts. The price has rallied smartly backed by sharp rise in traded volumes. Other momentum oscillators also indicate that the current upswing is likely to extend.    

Economy Snippets:

The Finance Ministry has turned down the Commerce Ministry’s pitch for a reduction in import duty on gold, citing improved data in respect of the current account deficit (CAD), official sources said.

India may impose anti—dumping duty of up to $ 452.33 per tonne on a certain variety of Chinese pneumatic radial tyres to guard domestic players from cheap imports. (HBL)

SUVs, mid-sized, large and luxury cars that had become cheaper after GST rollout on July 1 will cost more as the GST Council has approved a proposal to hike cess on them to 25%, from 15% now.

The country's 12 major ports saw their cargo traffic go up by 4.13% to 221.95 MT in April-July period of the ongoing fiscal, riding on the back of surge in demand, according to data from ports' body IPA.

 

Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were Hindalco up by 4.28%, Vedanta up by 3.89%, Tata Steel up by 3.52%, Hindustan Unilever up by 1.07% and Bajaj Auto up by 0.72%. On the flip side, BhartiInfratel down by 3.62%, BPCL down by 3.34%, Indian Oil down by 3.21%, SBI down by 2.17% and ONGC down by 1.90% were the top losers.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Metal up by 2.17% and Basic Materials up by 0.49%, while Realty down by 2.33%, Oil & Gas down by 2.03%, PSU down by 1.78%, Energy down by 1.64% and Power down by 1.50% were the losing indices on BSE.

 

 

 

On the global front:On the global front, Asian markets were trading mostly in green, while Shanghai Composite was down as disappointing Chinese trade data clouded the otherwise upbeat outlook on global growth. China’s exports and imports grew more slowly than expected in July, raising concerns over whether global demand is starting to cool even as major Western central banks consider scaling back their massive stimulus programs.

 

Global Signals:The Asian markets were trading mostly in green; FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI increased 0.25 points or 0.01% to 1,778.16, KOSPI Index increased 1.84 points or 0.08% to 2,400.59, Jakarta Composite increased 29.69 points or 0.52% to 5,778.98 and Hang Seng increased 43.03 points or 0.16% to 27,733.39.On the other hand, Nikkei 225 decreased 66.64 points or 0.33% to 19,989.25, Taiwan Weighted decreased 9.12 points or 0.09% to 10,570.26 and Shanghai Composite decreased 5.07 points or 0.15% to 3,274.39.

.

 

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Weekly Nifty Trading View for the Week July 31, 2017- August 06, 2017

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Events to watch this week

  • US growth sees modest Q2 bounce-back

  • Fed: Balance sheet run off to commence “relatively soon”

  • IMF lowers US growth outlook, raises others'

  • US Senate debates Obamacare changes

  • Abe’s support slides as scandals mount

  • Trump backs corporate, middle-class tax cuts

The Week ahead:

Date

Country/Area

Release/Event

Mon, 31 Jul

Japan

Industrial production

Mon, 31 Jul

China

Non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index

Mon, 31 Jul

eurozone

Unemployment report, consumer price index

Tue, 1 Aug

Global

Manufacturing purchasing managers’ indices

Tue, 1 Aug

eurozone

Q2 preliminary gross domestic product

Tue, 1 Aug

United States

Personal income, spending, personal consumption expenditures

 Thu, 3 Aug

Global

Non-manufacturing purchasing managers indices

For the week,Global equities rose a touch this week, with major US indices once again setting new highs. The yield on the US 10-year note rose six basis points to 2.30% on the week while the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose over $3 a barrel to $49.65. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), rose to 11.00 from 9.9 a week ago.

NIFTY- 10,014.50
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3192barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,580gram
Rs/$-Rs 64.15

MARKET ROUND UP 
Market registered modest gains on positive global cues. The Nifty breached the psychologically important 10,000-mark for the first time. Both the Sensex, and the Nifty, attained record high levels. A bout of volatility was witnessed as traders rolled over positions in the futures & options (F&O) segment from July 2017 series to August 2017 series. The July 2017 derivatives contract expired on Thursday, 27 July 2017. 

Overseas, US Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged after the conclusion of a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, 26 July 2017. The Fed gave no clear signal about the chances for another increase this year or about any concerns about low inflation. But the central bank did confirm that it plans to begin to reduce its massive bond holdings relatively soon. The Fed had raised the target range for its federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1% to 1.25% during its June 2017 meeting. 
Back home, the Sensex rose 280.99 points or 0.88% to settle at 32,309.88 in the week ended 28 July 2017. The Nifty 50 index advanced 99.25 points or 1% to settle at 10,014.50. Broader market trailed large caps. The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index jumped 0.95%. The S&P BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.49%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex. 

Macro Economic Front: 
On the Economic Front,the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report on Monday, 24 July 2017, said that growth in India is expected to pick up further in 2017 and 2018 with global economic recovery remaining on track on the back of better performing emerging economies. IMF projects India to grow at 7.7% in 2018, estimating a significant increase against the backdrop of ongoing economic reforms. The IMF estimates a global growth rate of 3.5% this year, which is projected to increase to 3.6% in 2018. 

In a key political development, Nitish Kumar formed new government in Bihar with the BharatiyaJanata Party (BJP). He took oath as Chief Minister of Bihar at 10:00 IST on Thursday, 27 July 2017. With oath Nitish Kumar ended his party, JDU's mahagathbandhan or Grand Alliance with LaluYadav's RJD and the Congress last evening and joined hands with his former partner BJP. 

Major Action &Announcement:
HDFC's net profit fell 16.84% to Rs 1555.74 crore on 3% fall in total income to Rs 8141.76 crore in Q1 June 2017 over Q1 June 2016. The company announced its Q1 results during market hours on Wednesday, 26 July 2017. HDFC's board of directors at its meeting held on 26 July 2017, approved issue of secured, redeemable, non convertible debentures aggregating Rs 35000 crore on private placement basis. 

HDFC Bank rose 4.26% to Rs 1,775.90 after net profit rose 20.22% to Rs 3893.84 crore on 14.81% growth in total income to Rs 22185.4 crore in Q1 June 2017 over Q1 June 2016. The result was announced during market hours on Monday, 24 July 2017. 

State Bank of India gained 3.05% to Rs 299.20. The bank announced on Wednesday, 26 July 2017, that its executive committee of the central board approved extension of validity period to raise the remaining additional tier I capital to the tune of Rs 2000 crore till 31 March 2018 and accordingly authorized bank to raise uptoRs 2000 crore additional tier I capital, by way of issue of Basel III compliant perpetual debt instruments in dollar and/or rupee, at par, through private placement to overseas and/or Indian investors. 

ICICI Bank lost 1.73% to Rs 296 after net profit fell 8.21% to Rs 2049 crore on 0.52% growth in total income to Rs 16847.04 crore in Q1 June 2017 over Q1 June 2016. The result was announced after market hours on Thursday, 27 July 2017. 

Axis Bank lost 4.66% to Rs 515. The bank's net profit fell 16.07% to Rs 1305.60 crore on 1.44% growth in total income to Rs 14052.30 crore in Q1 June 2017 over Q1 June 2016. The result was announced after market hours on Tuesday, 25 July 2017. 

Axis Bank's gross non-performing assets (NPAs) stood at Rs 22030.87 crore as on 30 June 2017 as against Rs 21280.48 crore as on 31 March 2017 and Rs 9553.17 crore as on 30 June 2016. The ratio of gross NPAs to gross advances stood at 5.03% as on 30 June 2017 as against 5.04% as on 31 March 2017 and 2.54% as on 30 June 2016. 

Maruti Suzuki India's operating EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) rose 5.3% to Rs 2331.20crore in Q1 June 2017 over Q1 June 2016. Sales volume rose 13.2% to 3.94 lakh vehicles in Q1 June 2017 over Q1 June 2016. 

Cigarette major ITC rose 0.95% to Rs 291.25 after net profit rose 7.4% to Rs 2561 crore on 4.3% growth in gross revenue to Rs 13722 crore in Q1 June 2017 over Q1 June 2016. The result was announced after market hours on Thursday, 27 July 2017. 

Global Front: 
In Overseas Markets,China will unveil manufacturing PMI data for July on Sunday, 30 July 2017. Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) data for July will be unveiled on Monday, 31 July 2017. US pending home sales data for June will be unveiled on Monday, 31 July 2017. US ADP non-farm employment change data for July will be unveiled on Wednesday, 2 August 2017. US ISM non-manufacturing PMI data for July will be unveiled on Thursday, 3 August 2017. US Non-farm Payrolls data for May will be unveiled on Friday, 4 August 2017. US Unemployment Rate data for July will be unveiled on Friday, 4 August 2017. 

Global Economic News:

US GDP rebounds from sluggish start to year
US economic growth accelerated in the second quarter, rising 2.6%, up from the first quarter’s 1.2% pace. Economists had expected a slightly stronger rebound, and the bounce is well short of expectations from earlier in the quarter. Wage pressures remain muted as hopes for sustained faster growth fade, given that pro-growth policies from Washington are looking less likely by the day. Modest growth averaging around 2% looks to be in the cards again in 2017. This should keep the US Federal Reserve on a gradual rate-hiking path.

Fed signals it’s ready to cut balance sheet soon
In a statement released after Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Fed indicated it is ready to begin trimming its balance sheet, which mushroomed in the wake of the global financial crisis. In a statement, the Fed said it expects to begin allowing some of its bond holdings to mature “relatively soon.” This is a shift from earlier language, released after the June FOMC meeting, that indicated a move by the end of the year. Many expect an announcement to come at the September FOMC meeting. The Fed held rates steady while acknowledging that inflation is running below its 2% target.

US health care push fizzles
Despite their effort being pronounced dead on several occasions, US Senate Republicans took up health care reform again this week after a dramatic return to the Capitol by Senator John McCain, who was recently diagnosed with brain cancer. Vice President Mike Pence broke a 50–50 tie to allow the Senate to begin debate on several Republican-sponsored legislative options. Ironically, McCain helped scuttle the final alternative, a “skinny repeal” bill that would have ended Obamacare’s individual mandate, among other provisions. Now that the health care bill has been defeated, Senate leaders hope to move on to tax reform and to passing a spending bill in order to avoid a government shutdown at the end of September.

Trump talks taxes
Amid a swirl of controversy, US president Donald Trump, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal this week, reiterated his desire to slash the US corporate tax rate to 15% from 35% while lowering the tax burden on the middle class. Additionally, Trump kept open the option of raising taxes on upper-income earners. The president did not rule out reappointing Fed chair Janet Yellen, but said that economic advisor Gary Cohn, former president of Goldman Sachs, is also under consideration for the post. In a press release on tax reform on Thursday, congressional leaders and administration officials agreed to table the border-adjustment tax that would have taxed US imports.  

Moody’s sees less China bank risk
Credit rating agency Moody’s has upgraded its outlook on the Chinese banking system to stable from negative. Moody's sees receding concerns over China’s massive shadow banking sector following action from regulators to curb systemic imbalances. It also expects nonperforming loans to stabilize near current levels.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

According to Thomson Reuters I/E/B/S, with 48% of the members of the S&P 500 Index reporting, second-quarter earnings are expected to rise 10.7% versus Q2 2016. Excluding the energy sector, the rise is 8%. Revenues are expected to climb 4.9%. Excluding energy, a 4.1% earnings rise is expected.


Greece returns to bond market after three-year hiatus
Having recently secured another bailout tranche from European creditors, Greece returned to the bond markets with a €3 billion five-year offering, which was more than two times oversubscribed. Greece is the rare sovereign that issues sovereign debt at a higher yield than some Greek corporates. The new issue yields 4.65% versus some recently issued corporate debt with a 3.1% yield. The extra yield reflects the political risk posed by Greece’s relatively market-unfriendly Syriza government.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

ADANIPORTS

398.40

ASHOKLEY

109.85

BRITANNIA

3925.00

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):


AJANTAPHARM

1393.75

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY(%):


GET&D INDIA

21.04

YES BANK

16.80

SUN PHARMA

13.71

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:


SREI INFRA

-13.23

LAKSHMI VILAS

-11.95

DR. REDDY

-10.79


Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:
Monday (31July)
Pending Home Sales Index 
Tuesday (01 August)
PMI Manufacturing Index 
Wednesday (02 August)
MBA Mortagage Applications
Thursday (03 August)
Jobless Claims & Factory Orders
Friday (04 August)
Employment Situation

TechnicalPick of the week:

Buy ACC Ltd For Target Rs.1,810.00

STOCK IN FOCUS 
* ACC Ltd is in the strong up-trend as the stock price reversed after taking support of 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level of prior upmove (Rs1531-1597) and rose to seven day closing high.
* Rise in Stochastic post positive cross-over and reversal in RSI from sub-60 mark is also signaling strength in the stock.
* As per the current daily set-up, we believe that ACC Ltd will keep moving higher and soon record new life-time-high.
* In case of any negative surprise, the stock will find support around Rs1680, which is coinciding with the prior swing low and its shortterm moving average 20-day EMA.
* Thus, long position can be initiated at Rs1715 for the target of Rs1810 and with a strict stop loss of Rs1680.

MARKET OUTLOOK
The market does appear to get a dizzy at heights and the late sell-off had a lot to do with the F&O expiry. While market-wide rollovers were in line with three-month average, Nifty rollovers were relatively lower than the previous three series. Nifty Open Interest is also at a calendar-year low as foreign investors The outlook is a subdued start. Global cues are mixed. While the Dow gained, the S&P and Nasdaq settled lower. Quarterly results are bringing in some swings and for the day numbers of Larsen & Toubro, Escorts and India Cements are scheduled. Investors will prefer to wait and watch before taking the plunge as the RBI policy meet takes place next week. The mid-cap segment, which has been defying gravity continues to soar higher.  

Other technical observations 
Nifty did gave long entry to Chopad Followers as we made high of 9919 and did 2 target on upside and close above 10000.  Lets see How to trade Nifty in coming week as we approach the Monthly/RBI Policy and volatile time cycle from 31 Jul to 07 Aug.All target done on upside, for coming week above 10025 we can see fast move towards 10115/10157. Bearish below 9930 for a move towards 9877/9792.

Conclusion: 
Yet another chartbuster week for the Indian equity markets as Nifty scaled past the 10000 milestone while Bank Nifty zoomed past the 25000 mark for the first time ever. Various government reforms, strengthening economy, chasing liquidity and cues from the US markets hitting fresh life-time highs have all fuelled the ongoing rally. Highlight of the week was sharp rally in HDFC, HDFC Bank, Yes Bank which gained 4-16% on decent set of results. From June lows of 9448, Nifty has rallied consecutively for the past four weeks gaining over 650 points or 7%. For the week, NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex gained by 1% each. 
Besides, ongoing results season continued its impact on the market sentiment. Reliance Industries started off the week with a bang followed by decent numbers by Yes Bank and Hero MotoCorp. On the other hand, Dr Reddy’s Labs came out with dismal earnings; ONGC and ICICI Bank were a mixed bag. Furthermore, market-wide rollovers into August were just a little below average.

Weekly Nifty Trading View for the Week July 17, 2017- July 23, 2017

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Events to watch this week

  • Fed chair briefs Congress on monetary policy

  • China inflation running low

  • G-20 summit concludes

  • Bank of Canada hikes rates

  • US retail sales miss

The Week ahead:

Date

Country/Area

Release/Event

Mon, 17 Jul

eurozone

Consumer price index

Wed, 19 Jul

Japan

Japan Policy rate

Wed, 19 Jul

United States

Housing starts

Thu, 20 Jul

United States

Continuing jobless claims

Thu, 20 Jul

eurozone

Flash consumer confidence indicator

Thu, 22 Jul

United Kingdom

Retail sales

 Fri, 21 Jul

Canada

Consumer price index

Date

Country/Area

Release/Event

Mon, 17 Jul

eurozone

Consumer price index

For the week,Global equities moved up this week with solid gains. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note faded seven basis points on the week, to 2.32%, while the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil moved up to $46.35 a barrel from $44.50 a week ago. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), dropped to 9.89 from 11.75 last week.

NIFTY- 9,886.35
CRUDE OIL-Rs 2990barrel
GOLD-Rs 27,996gram
Rs/$-Rs 64.44

MARKET ROUND UP 
Key benchmark indices hit record high with the BSE Sensex conquering the psychologically significant 32,000-level as a drop in June retail inflation data sparked hopes of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India. Global stock markets also provided some tailwind after US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, in a House testimony, signalled that the approach to higher rates will be steady, prompting investors to buy more in risky emerging markets. 

The government data released after market hours on Wednesday, 12 July 2017, showed that retail inflation has eased to a record in June and factory output growth slowed sharply in May. Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 1.54% in June from 2.18% in May. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose 1.7% in May compared with 3.1% in April. 
During the week, the Sensex surged 660.12 points or 2.10% to settle at 32,020.75. The Nifty 50 index advanced 220.55 points or 2.28% to settle at 9,886.35. 

Broader market trailed large caps. The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index jumped 1.64%. The S&P BSE Small-Cap index surged 0.49%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex. 

Macro Economic Front: 
On the Economic Front,The government data released after market hours on Wednesday, 12 July 2017, showed that retail inflation has eased to a record in June and factory output growth slowed sharply in May. Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 1.54% in June from 2.18% in May. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose 1.7% in May compared with 3.1% in April.

Major Action &Announcement:
Telecom major BhartiAirtel was the major Sensex gainer last week. It rose 5.45% to Rs 405.60. Last week certain media reports indicated that the Tata group and Bharti Enterprises are in discussions to form an alliance across telecom and direct-to-home television businesses. Both the groups have held exploratory talks to evaluate a mega alliance involving their telecom, overseas cable & enterprise services, and direct-to-home TV businesses. Discussions between both sides have revolved around a possible merger between Tata Teleservices, Tata Sky and Tata Communications with the Sunil Mittal-owned BhartiAirtel, which includes its wholly-owned DTH arm, reports added. 

IT major Infosys 3.85% to Rs 972.05.The company increased its revenue growth guidance in both dollar and rupee terms for FY 2018 at the time of announcing Q1 June 2017 results. Infosys' consolidated net profit fell 3.3% to Rs 3483 crore on 0.2% decline in revenue to Rs 17078 crore in Q1 June 2017 over Q4 March 2017. The results are as per International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and was announced before market hours on Friday, 14 July 2017. 

Bank shares were in demand. State Bank of India rose 4.07% to Rs 291.60 after the bank's executive committee gave final approval for divestment of 8 crore shares in SBI Life through an initial public offering (IPO). The shares being offered for sale by SBI will be available at a price that would be fixed and determined by SBI Life, SBI, and BNP Paribas Cardiff, in consultation with the book-running lead managers, SBI said. 

Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 2.70% to Rs 1,531.05. RIL's telecom subsidiary Reliance JioInfocomm (Jio) announced on 11 July 2017 that Jio Prime Members can enjoy unlimited services for 3 months with Rs 399 plan. The earlier launched Rs 309 plan will provide 2 months of unlimited Jio services. 

Tata Motors rose 3.46% to Rs 451.90 after the company's British luxury unit Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) reporting good sales growth in June 2017. JLR reported a 11% growth in sales at 51,591 units in June 2017 over June 2016, driven by healthy China market. Shares of Tata Motors advanced 2.28% to settle at Rs 446.75 yesterday, 10 July 2017. Jaguar sales grew by 16.4% to 15,343 units in June 2017 over June 2016. Land Rover sales rose 8.9% to 36,248 units in June 2017 over June 2016. 

Drug major Sun Pharmaceutical Industries gained 0.20% to Rs 570.50 after the company said it has entered into settlements with certain plaintiffs in re Modafinil Antitrust Litigation matter currently pending in the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania. The settlements extend to all claims brought by Apotex Corporation and the Retailer Purchaser Plaintiffs. The settlements remain are confidential. 

Global Front: 
In Overseas Markets,China will unveil GDP data for second quarter on Sunday, 16 July 2017. China's industrial production data for June 2017 will be unveiled on Sunday, 16 July 2017. Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June will be declared on Monday, 17 July 2017. 

Eurozone interest rate decision will be held on Thursday, 20 July 2017. The six members of the European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board and the 16 governors of the euro area central banks vote on where to set the rate. 

Global Economic News:

Yellen testifies on Capitol Hill
US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen testified on monetary policy before the House Financial Services Committee this week as markets continued to digest the Fed's recently announced balance sheet reduction plans. Chair Yellen reiterated that the Fed expects a tightening labor market to lead to increased inflation, despite recent weak inflation data. She added, however, that the Fed may change course from its policy plans if needed. Last month, the central bank raised rates for the third time since December 2016.

China inflation running Low
The United States is not the only region experiencing low inflation. China's consumer price index was reported at 1.5%, missing a 3% target. Its producer price index was reported at 5.5%, which was in line with expectations. It is worth noting that the slowdown in inflation is consistent with the slowdown in inflation in the US and many other countries. It is occurring as policymakers in the US, Canada and eurozone are all moving, or signaling that they will move, away from the low-interest-rate environment of recent years.

Bank of Canada raises rates
The Bank of Canada raised rates by a quarter of a percentage point to .75% while suggesting that monetary policy will remain accommodative for the foreseeable future. Of concern is the stability of the housing market, where prices have risen rapidly in recent years, particularly in areas such as Toronto and Vancouver, where prices have doubled since 2009.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

G-20 summit concludes
The G-20 summit of leaders of major economies concluded in Hamburg, Germany this week after discussions on a broad range of topics, including trade, climate change and immigration policy. Many leaders attending the summit appeared at odds with US president Donald Trump, particularly over trade policy and climate change. On the trade front, Japan and the European Union signed the Japan–EU Economic Partnership Agreement after several years of negotiation.

US retail sales off
Headline retail sales were down .2% month over month, with six of the 16 categories falling into negative territory. Department stores in particular were hurt, falling .7% after a similar drop in May. The recent drop in sales and subsequent selloff in retail stocks have attracted the interest of professional investors in search of a bargain.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

ACC

1766.50

ADANIPORTS

378.35

BAJAJFINANCE

1510.00

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):


NOT YET IN (A)

------

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY(%):


SINTEX INDS

25.10

BIOCON

18.44

VIDEOCON

15.37

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:


L&T

-31.28

BPCL

-30.52

HPCL

-22.52



Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:
Monday (17July)
Week Bill Announcement 
Tuesday (18 July)
Housing Market Index 
Wednesday (19 July)
Housing Starts
Thursday (20 July)
Jobless Claims &Natural Gas Report
Friday (21 July)
Note Major Event

FundamantelPick of the week:

Derivative Ideas Dewan Housing Finance Corporation Ltd For Target Rs.465.00

Derivative Ideas 
DHFL added around 3% of open interest as fresh long positions. On charts, it has breached past 10 sessions’ congestion zone on the higher side with noticeable rise in volumes. It is also trading in higher highs-higher lows formation on charts. Hence, we suggest buying DHFL July futures as per levels given below.

Strategy: 
BUY DHFL JULY FUTS BETWEEN 442-444, SL 432, TARGET 465.

MARKET OUTLOOK
Due to yesterday's move, we are now at a touching distance from 9900. We must accept the fact that we were unable to catch last 140 points on the index as we generally avoid chasing extended moves in the market. We would still continue with this strategy and would keep advising booking index specific longs in this rally. The main reason behind not participating in such kind of extended moves is we have historically seen how market surprises in the last leg of the euphoric moves. But, at the same time, one can look to find potential trades in individual stocks. Now, since the index is an uncharted territory, it becomes very difficult to give upside levels; but, 9900 - 9920 should be the levels to watch out for on a closing basis. On the other hand, 9850 - 9800 would be seen as an immediate support zone.

Other technical observations 
Bearish below 9610 only. As per time cycle till 9787 is held bulls can push nifty towards the scarocant figure of 10000 by 30 July.  Low made today was 9853 so nifty opened gap up above 9830 and rallied all the way till 9897, now bulls are holding 9830 we can move towards 9936/9961/10000. Bearish below 9792 for a move towards 9700/9610. Time cycle turn date of 12 July again helped in capturing good move in market. Till 9820 is held bulls are in control, bulls are in control and can push nifty towards 9936/9961/10000. Bearish below 9792 for a move towards 9700/9610 

Conclusion: 
Normal rainfall in most parts of India, retail inflation falling to eight months low, hopes of rate cut in the upcoming RBI policy meet in August and dovish statements from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen lifted the Indian equity market to scale fresh all time high. Markets even chose to ignore the worst outage (technical glitch) witnessed on the National Stock Exchange, which kept the biggest exchange of the country halted nearly for three hours on July 10. AU Small Finance Bank saw a successful listing and gained over 51% on debut although the stock slipped significantly on Friday. For the week, NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex surged by 2.2% each. Nifty had crossed 9900 while Sensex hit 32000 for the first time ever.


Results season which kicked off was a mixed bag as IndusInd Bank reported decent numbers for the first quarter of FY18. Although Net NPAs as a percentage of net advances, came in at 0.44% as against 0.38% YoY. TCS reported lower than expected June quarter results while Infosys fared much better as it managed to beat markets estimates. It reported 1.3% growth in consolidated net profit at Rs 3,483 crore for the quarter ended June 2017.

WEEKLY NIFTY TRADING VIEW FOR THE WEEK JULY03, 2017-JULY 08, 2017

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Events to watch this week

  • Central bankers sing more hawkish tune
  • US Q1 GDP revised up
  • Eurozone economic sentiment soars
  • Brazil’s president faces corruption charges
  • Venezuelan crisis intensifies

The Week ahead:

Date

Country/Area

Release/Event

Mon, 3 Jul

Japan

Tankan survey, manufacturing purchasing managers' index

Mon, 3 Jul

Canada

Canada Day (observed)

Mon, 3 Jul

China

Caixin manufacturing PMI

Mon, 3 Jul

eurozone

Manufacturing PMI, unemployment report

Mon, 3 Jul

United States

Markit manufacturing PMI, ISM report

Tue, 4 Jul

United States

Independence Day

 Wed, 5 Jul

eurozone

 Retail sales, Markit services PMI

 Wed, 5 Jul

 United States

 FOMC minutes

 Thu, 6 Jul

 eurozone

 ECB minutes

For the week,Global equities fell modestly this week amid central bank chatter concerning scaling back monetary stimulus. Yields rose on the talk, with the 10-year Treasury note ending the week at 2.29%, up from 2.15% a week ago. Oil prices recovered some of their recent losses, rising to $45.40 from $42.65 last Friday. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, ticked up to 10.9 from 10.6.

NIFTY- 9,520.90
CRUDE OIL-Rs 2968barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,439gram
Rs/$-Rs 64.57.50

MARKET ROUND UP

Market declined last week amid negative global cues. The Sensex failed to hold the psychological 31,000 level, which it had surpassed during the month. Trading was volatile during the week as the June 2017 derivative contracts expired on Thursday, 29 June 2017. The week was truncated as domestic stock markets was closed on Monday, 26 June 2017, on account of Id-Ul-Fitr (Ramzan Id).

In the week ended Friday, 30 June 2017, the Sensex fell 216.60 points or 0.70% to settle at 30,921.61. The Nifty 50 index fell 54.05 points or 0.56% to settle at 9,520.90.

The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index rose 60.67 points or 0.42% to settle at 14,644.48. The S&P BSE Small-Cap index rose 28.62 points or 0.19% to settle at 15,410.52. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

Macro Economic Front:

On the Economic Front,the implementation of landmark tax reform GST will be closely watched. There will be a special function in the Central Hall of Parliament House tonight wherein a number of programs will be witness to the change in tax structure and implementation of GST across the country between the night of June 30 and July 1. The government expects GST to revolutionize India's taxing system and is being marketed as one nation one tax.

Major Action &Announcement:

Axis Bank rose 2.28% to Rs 516.10 after the bank announced after market hours on Wednesday, 28 June 2017, that it successfully issued Rs 3500 crore Basel III compliant additional tier 1 debentures through private placement to augment the tier 1 capital base. The perpetual debentures with a 5 year call are priced at a fine coupon rate of 8.75%.

The board of directors of the bank had yesterday, 28 June 2017, approved the allotment of 35,000 unsecured subordinated perpetual additional tier 1 Basel III compliant non-convertible debentures of the face value of Rs 10 lakh each for cash at par aggregating to Rs 3500 crore, on a private placement basis.

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) fell 2.06% to Rs 1,347.65. The company announced incorporating two new subsidiary companies with effect from 25 June 2017. The announcement was made on Monday, 26 June 2017, when the stock markets remained closed on account of holiday.

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) said that Mahindra Waste Energy Solutions is incorporated as its new subsidiary company with effect from 25 June 2017. The new company shall carry on the activities connected with renewable energy/non renewable energy. M&M has subscribed to 10,000 shares of Rs 10 each aggregating Rs 1 lakh.

Engineering and contructon major Larsen & Toubro (L&T) fell 2.05% to Rs 1,687.80. L&T said that the transportation, infrastructure and water effluent treatment business has jointly bagged an EPC order worth Rs 1223 crore from Aurangabad Industrial Township. The water and Effluent Treatment Business also won an EPC order worth Rs 1329 crore from the Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA). The announcement was made during market hours on Tuesday, 27 June 2017.

Care major Maruti Suzuki India fell 0.27% to Rs 7217.90. A foreign brokerage house reportedly retained its buy call on Maruti Suzuki India and raised target price on the stock to Rs 8,824 from Rs 7,412 earlier. The stock will continue to trade at premium valuations due to high growth visibility and consistently improving free cash flow due to limited capex requirements, the brokerage house said.

Global Front:

In Overseas Markets,Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data and UK Manufacturing PMI data for June 2017 will be unveiled on Monday, 3 July 2017.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for June 2017 will also be unveiled on Monday, 3 July 2017. US ISM non-manufacturing PMI data for June 2017 will be unveiled on Thursday, 6 July 2017. US ADP nonfarm employment change data for June 2017 will be unveiled on Thursday, 6 July 2017. It measures the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 US business clients. US nonfarm payrolls data for June 2017 will be unveiled on Friday, 7 July 2017. US unemployment rate data for June 2017 will also be unveiled on Friday, 7 July 2017.

Global Economic News:

Easy money epoch at an end?
Markets turned turbulent this week after a series of hawkish comments from developed-market central bankers suggested the era of ultra-loose monetary policy may be nearing its end. European Central Bank president Mario Draghi’s speech on Tuesday to a gathering of central bankers in Portugal was read as suggesting that the ECB is considering curbing its asset-buying program. The ECB pushed back on that interpretation, but the market refused to be spun. European bond yields rose sharply, as did the euro on foreign exchange markets. Bank of England governor Mark Carney, after saying only a week ago that now is not the time to raise interest rates, reversed course and said the Monetary Policy Committee will debate a rate move in the next few months. Not to be outdone, US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen and Vice Chair Stanley Fischer both voiced concerns that equity and other asset valuations are on the rich side, which suggests that financial stability worries could keep the Fed on a tightening path, despite easing US inflation pressures.

Despite the somewhat more hawkish tone, inflation pressures remain extremely muted, except in the United Kingdom, where currency pass-through is boosting prices. To illustrate this point, the eurozone reported on Friday that consumer prices rose only 1.3% in June versus a year ago, down from 1.4% in May. That’s well below the ECB’s near-2% target.

US growth revised higher to start year
US economic growth in the hard-to-measure first quarter of the year was revised higher for a second time on Thursday. Gross domestic product expanded at a 1.4% annual rate, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. That’s up from the 1.2% reading in the last revision. Improved consumer spending was the main driver of the revision, the BEA said. The initial Q1 reading, released in April, was a particularly anemic 0.7%.

Eurozone confidence near a 10-year high
Theeurozone economic sentiment indicator (ESI) jumped to a nearly 10-year high of 111.1 in June from 109.2 in May, with optimism on display in all sectors of the economy, according to a report by the European Commission. The ESI reached 111.8 in August 2007, just before the global financial crisis began to intensify.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Temer charged with corruption
Brazilian president Michel Temer was formally charged this week with receiving bribes totaling $152,000. The charges come less than a year after he took office, in the wake of the impeachment of DilmaRousseff. Temer is the first sitting president of the country to be charged with a crime. In addition to the bribery count, the president may also face obstruction of justice charges, according to press reports.

Venezuelan crisis takes bizarre turn
A stolen police helicopter strafed and dropped grenades on Venezuela’s Supreme Court and Interior Ministry headquarters this week as protests against President Nicolas Maduro intensified. Some categorize the attack as an attempted coup against Maduro’s government, while others say the incident was staged by his supporters. The political tumult comes against the backdrop of a deepening economic crisis fueled by runaway inflation, food shortages and falling government revenues stemming from weak oil prices.

 

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

 

ABIRLANUVO

1893.00

GRASIM

1266.75

GVKPIL

8.61

ITC

324.80

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):

IDBI

53.00

OIL

258.45

RELIGARE

169.00

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY(%):

JAIPRAKASH ASSO

16.40

UNITECH

18.18

VIDEOCON

20.93

GVK pOWER

29.86

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

GMR INFRA

-7.75

pvr ltd

-6.70

religare

-6.03


Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:

Monday (03July)

PMI Manufaturing Index

Tuesday (04 July)

Market Closed

Wednesday (05 July)

MBA Mortagage Applications&  Factory Orders

Thursday (06 July)

Jobless Claims & PMI Services Index

Friday (07 July)

Natural Gas Report

FundamantelPick of the week:

Accumulate DaburIndia Ltd For Target Rs. 320.00

Investment Rationale

* Dabur India Ltd (DIL) is the second largest FMCG company in India, in terms of Product portfolio. It has a strong portfolio of brands (DaburChyawanprash, Real, Hajmola, Vatika, Amla, Fem, Honey, Meswak, Dabur Red) with the focus largely on ayurvedic& healthcare offerings.The company’s diverse product portfolio (hair care, oral care, skin care, home care, health supplements, digestives, OTC &ethicals) and presence in niche categories has aided revenue growth at a robust ~12% CAGR in FY10-17.

* After retesting lower band of its consolidation range in May 2017, it has rebounded swiftly in last one month and now reached closer to the breakout area. The prolong consolidation phase combined with indications from the chart pattern is pointing towards possibility of strong surge in near future. Thus we advise traders to accumulate in the given range of 290-293 with close below stop loss of 276 for the target of 320

Recommendation

Accumulate Dabur India Ltd @ 290-293 Stoploss 276 Target 320

MARKET OUTLOOK:

The NIFTY balance is clearly favoring the BEARS, while the EXPIRY compulsions pointed to a temporary BOUNCE-BACK. On the daily chart, Index broke its last two weeks low @ 9560 and has formed a real black body candle over the week. In addition, momentum oscillator i.e. RSI has broken 50 levels for the first time this year. All in all, Index is expected to stay under pressure and could lead to retest 9450 levels which is a confluence zone formed by (i) 50DMA, (ii) Rising trend line and (iii) 61.8 retracement level of near-term rise (9341 - 9709). A clear break below 9450 level would indicate that Index has moved into medium term bearish phase (with an immediate downside of 9280 levels).On the flip side, previous support zone around 9560 will now act as a resistance zone, as is clearly demarcated in the EXPIRY supply zone. 

Other technical observations

In continuation to its sideways trend, the domestic benchmark index, Nifty slipped nearly half percent amid volatility.Participants are focusing on GST roll out and will react to the cues next week. Besides, indications from the global front, movement on currency front and further monsoon update will dictate the market trend.

* Technically, Nifty has crucial support at 9400 and any breakdown will trigger further selling pressure ahead. Having said that, the overall trend is still positive and we advise investors to utilise this corrective phase to accumulate quality index majors.

* Broadly , we expect Nifty to trade in a range of 9300-9700 in the up coming week.

Conclusion:

The Indian equity market extended its losing streak to the third consecutive week as traders and investors continued to trade cautiously ahead of the GST rollout. Outflows by foreign funds and weak global cues further added to concerns. CDSL saw a bumper debut and closed near 75% higher on the street while AU Small Finance Bank IPO was oversubscribed by over 50x times. Eris Lifesciences got listed 2% over issue price on the bourses this week, however, it closed slightly lower. Tejas Networks witnessed a tepid listing; however, the stock picked up momentum as the week progressed. Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilizers’ (RCF) offer-for-sale was subscribed 791%. Monsoon has touched majority of Indian subcontinent and is just 1% below estimates. Government of India has in principle given an approval for sale of Air India.

Overall, volatility ruled the roost throughout the week on account of a historic F&O expiry which saw highest turnover ever. Banking stocks remained in focus following reports of an RBI order seeking hefty provisions for accounts referred to bankruptcy courts.

Weekly Nifty Trading View for the Week June 26, 2017- July 01, 2017

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Events to watch this week

  • Crude oil prices decline more than 20% from recent peaks

  • Brexit negotiations begin

  • BOE governor, economist split over rate moves

  • MSCI admits China’s A shares

  • Fed’s Powell OK with relaxing Volcker rule

The Week ahead:

 

Date

Country/Area

Release/Event

Mon, 26 Jun

United States

Durable goods orders

Tue, 27 Jun

United States

Case-Shiller home price index

Wed, 28 June

United States

Trade balance, pending homes sales

Thurs, 29 June

Japan

Retail sales

Thurs, 29 June

eurozone

Economic sentiment indicator

Thurs, 29 June

United States

Q1 gross domestic product revision

 Fri, 30 June

 United Kingdom

 Q1 gross domestic product revision

 Fri, 30 June

 eurozone

 Preliminary June consumer price index

 Fri, 30 June

 United States

 Personal income/spending

For the week,Global equities slipped this week, but not before the S&P 500 Index posted a fresh record high early in the week. Falling oil prices have been a cause for investor concern. West Texas Intermediate crude continued its decline, slipping to $42.65 a barrel on Friday from $44.70 a week ago, trading near a seven-month low. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note was virtually unchanged, while volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), declined slightly to 10.6 from last Friday’s 10.9.

NIFTY- 9,574.95
CRUDE OIL-Rs 2781barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,753gram
Rs/$-Rs 64.52

MARKET ROUND UP 
A divergent trend was witnessed as the barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, settled with modest gains while the Nifty 50 index registered small decline in the week ended Friday, 23 June 2017. The BSE Mid-Cap and the S&P BSE Small-Cap indices underperformed the Sensex during the week. Trading activity was quiet during the week in absence of major triggers. 
In the week ended Friday, 23 June 2017, the Sensex rose 81.81 points or 0.26% to settle at 31,138.21. The Nifty 50 index fell 13.10 points or 0.14% to settle at 9,574.95. The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index fell 223.52 points or 1.51% to settle at 14,583.81. The S&P BSE Small-Cap index fell 285.34 points or 1.82% to settle at 15,381.90. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex. 
Key benchmark indices logged strong gains on first trading day of the week on Monday, 19 June 2017 on upbeat global markets. The Sensex gained 255.17 points or 0.82% to setle at 31,311.57, a record closing high for the index. Amid a divergent trend among various index constituents, the key benchmark indices finished a shade lower in a quiet session of trade on Tuesday, 20 June 2017. The Sensex fell 14.04 points or 0.04% to settle at 31,297.53, its lowest closing level since 16 June 2017. 

Macro Economic Front: 
On the Economic Front,Developments related to roll-out of Goods and Service Tax (GST), progress of monsoon rains, domestic and global macroeconomic data, trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses in truncated trading week ahead. Domestic stock markets will remain closed on Monday, 26 June 2017 on account of Id-Ul-Fitr (Ramzan Id). 

The market may remain volatile as traders roll over positions in the futures & options (F&O) segment from the near month June 2017 series to July 2017 series. The near month June 2017 derivatives contract expire on Thursday, 29 June 2017. 
The progress of monsoon rains will be closely watched. The IMD said that for the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year's monsoon upto 22 June has been 4% above the Long Period Average (LPA). The June-September southwest monsoon is critical for the country's agriculture because a considerable part of the country's farmland is dependent on the rains for irrigation. 

Major Action &Announcement:
Axis Bank fell 1.06%. The bank has revised Marginal Cost of Funds based Lending Rate (MCLR) rates in the short tenors. The 1 year MCLR stands unchanged at 8.25%. New rates are effective from 17 June 2017. The announcement was made after market hours on Friday, 16 June 2017. 

ICICI Bank lost 7.9%. The company announced that the Committee of Executive Directors of the Bank at its meeting held on 20 June 2017 has approved the proposal for fund raising by way of issuance of senior unsecured long term bonds in the nature of debentures in single/multiple tranches on private placement basis. 

Index heavyweight and housing finance major HDFC advanced 0.72%. The company filed term sheet for issuing secured redeemable non-convertible debentures worth Rs 700 crore on private placement basis. HDFC said that the coupon rate on debentures is 7.21% per annum. The tenor of the debentures is one year 93 days, with redemption date being 24 September 2018. The announcement was made after market hours on 21 June 2017. 

Tata Motors lost 2.72%. As per reports the Tata Group may be considering listing its luxury carmaker Jaguar Land Rover through an initial public offer. According to reports, senior executives of Tata Group have held preliminary internal discussions over listing of the British luxury automobile company Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) over an international stock exchange, which may potentially include New York Stock Exchange or London Stock Exchange. Tata Motors had bought an ailing JLR in a surprise move in 2008 for $2.4 billion from Ford Motor Co. 

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) rose 1.35%. The company said Moody's has changed its outlook on the company to stable from negative. Moody's has re-affirmed its investment grade rating at Baa3 on APSEZ. The announcement was made during market hours on 19 June 2017. 

Drug major Lupin lost 6.2%. Media reports suggested that Lupin'sPithampur Unit 3 has been issued 5 observations by the US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA). Meanwhile, Lupin announced during market hours on 22 June 2017, the launch of its Desoximetasone Cream USP, 0.05% and Desoximetasone Cream USP, 0.25% having received an approval from the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) earlier. 

Global Front: 
In Overseas Markets,growth in the eurozone's manufacturing and services sector slowed in June, data showed on Friday, 23 June 2017. Markit's flash eurozone PMI composite output index came in at 55.7 in June, a five-month low. 
A report on weekly jobless claims showed that fewer than 250,000 Americans applied for unemployment benefits in mid-June. Initial jobless claims rose by 3,000 to 241,000 in the seven days stretching from 11 June to 17 June 2017, Labor Department said on Thursday, 22 June 2017. 

Global Economic News:

Crude oil prices deepen slump
The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil extended its decline this week amid rising global inventories. WTI prices have fallen in excess of 25% from their $58.30 high, which was posted on the year’s first trading day. Energy company shares have been under pressure, while spreads in the sector’s high-yield bond market have widened over benchmark Treasury yields this week. The sharp decline in energy prices will make it that much more difficult for the US Federal Reserve to reach its 2% inflation target in the foreseeable future.

Brexit talks underway
Negotiators from the United Kingdom and the European Union met on Monday in the first formal Brexit negotiating session. The one breakthrough from the talks was the UK’s acquiescence to EU demands that the divorce bill must be settled before the EU begins to negotiate a new trade arrangement. Late in the week, Prime Minister Theresa May met with EU leaders in Brussels and laid out her plan to protect the rights of the three million EU citizens living in the UK, allowing them permanent residence. May called on leaders to grant British citizens living in the EU the same rights.

To hike or not to hike?
That is the question on the minds of the members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. While UK growth has suffered a downturn of late, inflation has surged on the heels of a tumble in the pound’s exchange rate. Rising import prices have pushed consumer prices up 2.9% versus year-ago levels, prompting three members of the short-staffed MPC to vote for a rate hike last week against five votes to leave policy unchanged. The divide deepened this week as the Bank’s two most high-profile officials came out on opposite ends of the question of whether rates should be raised this year. BOE governor Mark Carney made the case that now is not the time for rate hikes given low wage growth and mixed signals on consumer spending and business investment. BOE chief economist Andy Haldane countered that it would be prudent to raise rates in the second half of this year to counter the inflation surge. 

China gets nod from MSCI
After years of fighting for inclusion in MSCI’s influential stock indices, China finally received word that some of its A shares will be included in the indices in mid-2018. Just fewer than half of the 448 A shares will be included in the indices and at an initial weighting of just 5% of each stock’s market cap. These restrictions are an effort by MSCI to incentive China to further liberalize its stocks markets.

US banks clear first round of stress tests
Thirty-four big US banks passed the first round of the Fed’s stress test this week. Next week, the central bank will announce whether it will allow the banks to return capital to shareholders. Some banks may begin to reduce their capital if the Fed approves. That could be seen by markets as a sign of confidence that the banking system is strong and positioned well to withstand a significant economic downturn.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Room to relax
Fed governor Jerome Powell told a congressional committee that US regulators have room to relax or eliminate some aspects of the Volcker rule, which is intended to limit banks’ ability to make speculative bets with insured deposits. Regulators are looking for ways to simplify the complicated rule and may exempt small banks from having to comply, Powell said.

Treasury secretary rejects one-off ultra-long bond
US treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin this spring floated the idea that the United States is considering issuing very-long-dated bonds. This week he said the government will only issue ultra-long maturity Treasuries if there is sustained appetite for the securities. Mnuchin said his department is reaching out to investors in order to gauge demand for instruments with maturities between 50 and 100 years, but any move to issue very-long-term debt would not be a one-off. Apparently there is at least some investor demand for long paper, as Argentina issued 100-year bonds this week despite having defaulted six times in the last century. The issue, although rated below investment-grade, was heavily oversubscribed.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

ABIRLANUVO

1775.00

BALKRISIND

1729.00

COLPAL

1120.00

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):


APLLTD

500.75

COALINDIA

243.35

DISHTV

73.50

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY(%):


JAIPRAKASH ASSO

26.29

rELIANCE COMM

11.29

BALKRISHNA IND

10.35

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:


GODREJ CONSUMER

-48.98

CENTRAL BANK

-13.75

VIDEOCON

-22.52



Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are: 
Monday (26June)
Durable Goods Orders 
Tuesday (27 June)
Consumer confidence 
Wednesday (28 June)
MBA Mortagage Applications
Thursday (29 June)
Jobless Claims 
Friday (30 June)
Consumer Sentiments

Technically Pick of the week:

Accumulate ITC Ltd For Target Rs.363.00

* ITC Closed 0.7% up in trade today at Rs311 compared to flat close in benchmark Nifty.
* We expect ITC to benefit in GST regime as tax outgo is similar to the current tax structure. It also provides more clarity and uniformity in taxes across states.
* Increase salience of DSFT cigarettes and strong pricing power would aid growth in volumes and profitability in the coming quarters.

* We expect ITC to post revenues and net profit of Rs449.4bn and Rs118.2bn respectively in FY18.Based on expected EPS of Rs9.7, the stock currently trades at an attractive P/E multiple of 32x FY18E earnings, which is at a 20% discount to sector multiples.

* We maintain BUY rating on the stock with target price of Rs363.

MARKET OUTLOOK
Markets to make a cautious start on mixed global cues
 
The Indian markets gave up all their gains in final hours to end flat with just a positive bias in last session, tracking weak cues from European markets. Today, the start is likely to remain cautious tailing mixed global cues. Markets however, may get some support with Reserve Bank Governor Urjit Patel’s statement that he is not 'overly pessimistic' about employment scenario in the IT sector, pointing out that mushrooming startups can compensate for job losses. Meanwhile, the Union Cabinet passed a resolution expressing gratitude to Chief Ministers of States and others for their cooperation in introduction of GST, calling it the biggest tax reform in independent India.

The banking stocks will be in focus with credit rating agency ICRA stating that asset quality pain for banks is expected to continue in financial year 2018 due to restructuring by banks, weakness in some large corporate accounts and moves like waiver of farm loans.  On the same time IT stocks may come under pressure as Industry body Nasscom has projected that India's IT industry is expected to grow at the slowest pace in nearly a decade as clients defer spending in the face of geopolitical uncertainties. Software export growth in financial year 2017-18 is projected at 7-8 per cent in constant currency terms, down from 8.6 per cent last year.

Other technical observations 
Low made friday was 9608 so even though bulls were not able to break the gann angle but they held on to support of 9610 in today’s fall and closed at 9633, Now bulls need a close above 9650 for a quick move towards 9720/9770. Bearish below 9610 for a move towards 9565/9520. Nifty made high of 9698 today unable to make a new life high above 9709 and made low of 9630, so bulls protected 9610 and bears protected 9720 hence trading in neutral zone with high volatility experience during the day.Today is 3 day where we made the failed attempt to close above gannangles, bulls should not delay much else bears will become active and can push nifty lower towards 9500/9400 odd levels. Now bulls need a close above 9650 for a quick move towards 9720/9770. Bearish below 9610 for a move towards 9565/9520. 

Conclusion: 
Fresh farm loan waiver by the Karnataka government, escalating NPA issues and problems faced by the IT industry on the H1B visa front are among the multiple headwinds that have dragged Nifty over 100 points in the past two days.
On the other hand, banking stocks were in action after RBI announced plan to resolve troubled assets of 12 large borrowers and has also asked banks to resolve 55 high value cases of bad loans within six months. For the week, BSE Sensex and Nifty ended with marginal losses.


The IPO market is seeing very healthy signs with the IPO of CDSL receiving an overwhelming response as it got oversubscribed 169 times.

Weekly Nifty Trading View for the Week June 19, 2017–June 25, 2017

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Events to watch this week

  • FOMC raises policy target range 25 basis points to 1% - 1.25%

  • Macron’s party likely to secure majority

  • Moody’s: UK election result credit negative

  • IMF raises China forecast, says deep reforms needed


The Week ahead:

Date

Country/Area

Release/Event

Sun, 18 Jun

France

Final round – parliamentary elections

Mon, 19 Jun

United Kingdom

Brexit negotiations commence

Wed, 21 June

United States

Existing home sales

Thurs, 22 June

United States

Leading economic indicators

Fri, 23 June

Global

Flash purchasing managers indices

Fri, 23 June

Canada

Consumer price index

Date

Country/Area

Release/Event

Sun, 18 Jun

France

Final round – parliamentary elections

Mon, 19 Jun

United Kingdom

Brexit negotiations commence

For the week,Global equities are virtually unchanged on the week, but that didn’t stop the Dow Jones Industrial Average from setting a record high at midweek. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell 4 basis points from week-ago levels to 2.16% while the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined to $44.70 from $45.50 last Friday. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), edged up to 10.9 from 10.0 a week ago.

NIFTY- 9,588.05
CRUDE OIL-Rs 2876barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,680 gram
Rs/$-Rs 64.43

MARKET ROUND UP 
Key indices posted modest losses tracking weakness in global stocks and after the Federal Reserve hiked the fed-funds rate by a quarter-point to between 1% and 1.25%. The S&P BSE Sensex shed 205.66 points or 0.65% to settle at 31,056.40. The Nifty 50 index dropped 80.20 points or 0.82% to settle at 9,588.05. There had been concerns that higher interest rates in the United States will boost returns on US debt and bank deposits, drawing money back from riskier markets. 
The BSE Mid-Cap index shed 0.45%. The decline was lower than the Sensex's fall in percentage terms. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.75%, outperforming the Sensex. 

Trading for the week began on a dull note as the key benchmark indices registered modest losses on Monday, 12 June 2017 on negative global cues. The Sensex shed 166.36 points or 0.53% to settle at 31,095.70, its lowest closing level since 26 May 2017. 
A divergent trend was witnessed as the barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, settled with tiny gains while the Nifty 50 index registered minor losses in a volatile session of trade on Tuesday, 13 June 2017. The Sensex rose 7.79 points or 0.03% to settle at 31,103.49, its highest closing level since 9 June 2017. 

Macro Economic Front: 
On the Economic Front,merchandise exports have shown growth of 8.32% in dollar terms valued at $24014.62 million during May 2017 as compared to $22170.62 million during May 2016. Merchandise imports rose 33.09% and were valued at $37856.34 million during May 2017 from $28443.52 million in May 2016. The trade deficit for May 2017 was estimated at $13841.72 million as against the deficit of $6272.90 million during May 2016. The data was released by government after market hours on Thursday, 15 June 2017. 

The annual rate of inflation, based on monthly wholesale price index (WPI) stood at 2.17% (provisional) for the month of May 2017 over May 2016 as compared to 3.85% (provisional) for the previous month and -0.9% during the corresponding month of the previous year. Build up inflation rate in the financial year so far was -0.35% compared to a build up rate of 2.51% in the corresponding period of the previous year. The data was announced during market hours on Wednesday, 14 June 2017. 
The retail price inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), slowed to 2.18% in May from 2.99% in April 2017 as food prices started falling from their year-ago level. Inflation is now well below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) medium-term target of 4%, and at the lower end of its CPI projection of 2%-3.5% in the first half of the fiscal year. 

Major Action &Announcement:
Dr Reddy's Laboratories gained 1.41% The company said that it has received Establishment Inspection Report (EIR) from the United States Food and Drug Administration on 13 June 2017 as closure of audit for the company's API manufacturing plant at Miryalaguda. This unit was inspected by the USFDA in February 2017 and Dr Reddy's was issued form 483 with three observations. The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 13 June 2017. 

ICICI Bank fell 1.65%. The bank said that the committee of executive directors of the bank is scheduled to meet on 20 June 2017 to consider fund raising by way of issuance of senior unsecured long term bonds in the nature of debentures in single/multiple tranches on private placement basis. The announcement was made after market hours on Thursday, 15 June 2017. 

Infosys dropped 0.86%. Infosys announced the appointment of KarmeshVaswani as the Global Head – Retail, CPG & Logistics (RCL) and NiteshBanga as the Global Head of Manufacturing, effective 15 July 2017. KarmeshVaswani and NiteshBanga are both career Infoscions who have held strategic portfolios across the organization for nearly a decade. The announcement was made after market hours on Thursday, 15 June 2017. 

TCS slumped 4.49%. TCS announced that it has launched ignio for SAP ERP to help customers run their operations in SAP more effectively. ignio is a cognitive automation solution for enterprise IT. ignio has also achieved certified integration with SAP ERP. The announcement was made after market hours on Thursday, 15 June 2017. 

Tata Motors declined 2.5%. The company said that its global wholesales, including Jaguar Land Rover, declined by 1% to 86,385 units in May 2017 over May 2016. The announcement was made after market hours on Friday, 9 June 2017. 
Separately, the company said that it is desirous of offering the eighth series of its rated, listed, unsecured, redeemable, noon convertible debentures (NCDs) aggregating to Rs 500 crore and in this regard is holding a meeting of its duly constituted committee of the board on 21 June 2017. The announcement was made during market hours on Friday, 16 June 2017. 

Reliance Industries (RIL) jumped 3.92%. The stock was the biggest gainer from the Sensex pack. RIL and BP on Thursday, 15 June 2017 announced that they are moving forward to develop already-discovered deepwater gas fields, bringing new gas production for India. The two companies have agreed to deepen and expand their partnership to work jointly across a wide range of areas throughout India's energy sector. The announcement was made after market hours yesterday, 15 June 2017. 

Global Front: 
In Overseas Markets,the Federal Reserve hiked the fed-funds rate by a quarter-point to between 1% and 1.25%, as expected, after its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, 14 June 2017 and indicated that it start shrinking its $4.5 trillion portfolio of bonds and other assets this year. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the process could start relatively soon, while projections of Federal Reserve Board members also showed they expect one more rate hike by the end of year. 

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) left policy unchanged on Friday, 16 June 2017, maintaining its aggressive monetary stimulus aimed at lifting inflation, which continues to show weakness despite brighter spots elsewhere in the economy. The BOJ board voted to keep its target for 10-year Japanese government bond yields at around zero and a shorter-term interest rate at minus 0.1%, as widely expected by economists. The bank also reiterated that it would continue to buy government bonds at an annual pace of about ¥80 trillion ($720 billion). 

China's central bank left interest rates for open market operations unchanged. The rate for seven-day reverse repos remained at 2.45%, the 14-day tenor at 2.6% and the 28-day tenor at 2.75%, the PBOC said in a statement. China's benchmark one-year lending and deposit rates have remained unchanged since October 2015. 

Global Economic News:

Fed hikes rates, reveals plan to shrink bond holdings
Despite falling inflation data in recent months, the US Federal Reserve hiked rates on Wednesday, and indicated it will likely hike rates once more this year. Also, the central bank laid out the framework it will use when it begins to shrink its massive balance sheet, a process it indicated will begin later this year. The Fed will initially allow $10 billion in securities to mature each month — $6 billion in Treasuries and $4 billion in mortgage and agency debt — gradually increasing until it reaches a cap of $50 billion a month. In her Wednesday press conference, Fed chair Janet Yellen chalked up the recent decline in inflation to one-off factors such as falling prices for cell phone service and prescription drugs. Despite three consecutive monthly declines in consumer prices, the Federal Open Market Committee said that it expects inflation to stabilize around the committee’s 2% target in the medium term. Despite three rates hikes, yields on US 10-year notes are nearly a half-percent lower today than they were when the FOMC resumed its tightening cycle in December 2016.

New party set to grab French majority 
French president Emmanuel Macron’s Republic on the Move party is set to secure a significant majority in the National Assembly, based on voting in the first round of the two-round process. His party is projected to win as many as 450 of the 577 seats in France’s lower house, potentially giving him the ability to push through needed, but previously unpopular, reforms. The final round of voting takes place on Sunday, 18 June.

IMF ups China outlook
The International Monetary Fund raised its gross domestic product forecast for China to 6.7% in 2017, up from its prior 6.6% projection, the second time the fund has boosted its outlook. China should embrace reform while growth is strong, the IMF said, since buffers are sufficient to ease the transition and to avoid sharp adjustments down the road.

Greek debt relief will have to wait
Greece’s creditors reached another deal to release a further round of funding to keep the country afloat. The lifeline did not include an agreement to cut Greece’s debt load, as had been hoped, postponing discussions on that matter until August 2018. Under the terms of the deal, Greece will be granted access to an additional €8.5 billion, though its debt remains excluded from the European Central Bank’s asset purchase program. Greek unemployment stands at 23%, and the Greek economy has shrunk 27% since 2008, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

US revises Cuba policy
The Trump administration announced a revised Cuba policy on Friday that will tighten rules on Americans traveling to Cuba and restrict US companies from doing business with entities controlled by the Cuban military. Exceptions will be made for US air carriers and cruise lines.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

UK election fallout reverberates
Credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service warned this week that the minority government resulting from the recent snap election in the United Kingdom further complicates Brexit negotiations with the European Union. The latest political developments are a credit negative, and the government will likely be forced to put fiscal deficit cuts on hold, the agency said. Meanwhile, inflation remains a major concern for Bank of England policymakers after consumer prices rose 2.9% versus a year ago, the fastest pace in nearly four years. Markets were caught by surprise as three members of the eight- member Monetary Policy Committee — there is one vacancy on the committee — voted to raise interest rates this week in order to rein in inflation. London’s financial community had expected to hear from Chancellor of the Exchequer Phillip Hammond and Bank of England governor Mark Carney late in the week, but both cancelled scheduled speeches out of respect for those killed and injured in the Grenfell Tower apartment building fire.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

BAJAJFINANCE

1425.00

BEML

1463.85

COLPAL

1098.10

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):


AMTEKAUTO

28.35

BLUEDART

4160.00

VIDEOIND

22.20

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY(%):


JAIPRAKASH ASSO

20.50

GMR INFRAST..

14.75

BEML LTD

13.45

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:


BIOCON

-66.90

WIPRO

-52.50

VIDEOCON

-22.24



Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are: 
Monday (19June)
Week Bill Announcement 
Tuesday (20 June)
Current Account 
Wednesday (21 June)
Existing Home Sales
Thursday (22 June)
Jobless Claims $ Natural Gas Report
Friday (23 June)
New Home Sales

Fundamental Pick of the week:

Accumulate HDIL Ltd For Target Rs.110.00

Hdil, after prolong corrective phase, has been trading in a broader range of 50-110 for last three years.
Technically, the realty index has witnessed bullish reversal after several years of underperformance and Hdil is also rebounding in line with the sectoral index.


Currently, it has been consolidating above the support zone of multiple moving averages with exponential rise in volumes which indicates accumulation. The chart pattern along with oscillators is also pointing towards strong prospect of retesting the upper band of the range in near term and possibly a breakout also this time. In short, we strongly advise traders to use this phase to accumulate in the given range of 90-93 with close below stop loss of 83 for the target of 110.

Recommendation 
Buy HDIL  Ltd @ 90-93 Stoploss 83 Target 110 

MARKET OUTLOOK
The Nifty opened on flat note today & traded with bearish bias throughout the day. Nevertheless the index obeyed the falling channel on the hourly chart & remained within the same. Near the support zone of 9580-9560 bulls rushed in to provide support to the benchmark index. Thus Nifty managed to close just above the 20 DMA. Till the time the key Moving Average & the lower channel line holds on closing basis sharper decline is unlikely. On the higher side, 9627-9655 is a key resistance zone to watch out for. Once that gets taken off, the next move on the upside can take the index to 9815, which is our short term target.

Other technical observations 
On the daily chart the Nifty is above the 20-day moving average (DMA) and the 40-DEMA, i.e. 9577 and 9465 respectively. The momentum indicator is in bearish mode on the daily chart.

On the hourly chart, the Nifty is below the 20-hour moving average (HMA) and the 40-HEMA, i.e. 9606 and 9614 respectively. The hourly momentum indicator is in bearish mode. The market breadth was marginally negative with 728 advances and 747 declines on the National Stock Exchange.

Low made  was 9560 bears broke 9595 and finally closed below it and can push towards 9520/9480. Bullish above 9610 for a move towards 9660/9720/9770. As seen in below chart, nifty has done 2 time whipsaw at gann angle and shown a impulsive move on upside. Will it be repeated again ? 17 June is important trend change date as per geometric time cycle as it being holiday we should see effect either tomorrow or Monday.  Nifty continue to close below gann angle, but in the process formed an Inside bar pattern. Bullish above 9610 for a move towards 9660/9720/9770. Till we are closing below 9595 bears have upper hand and can push 9520/9480.As we discussed 17 June is important trend change day so low made on Friday is important ie.9565 holding the same we can continue to move higher towards our target.  

Conclusion: 
The Indian equity markets snapped its five week winning streak amid profit booking around the all time high of 9700. Rising NPA issues, loan waivers by states kept the overall sentiment under check. RBI identifying 12 accounts that covered about 25% of the banking system’s NPA for immediate resolution under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code also saw uncertainty spread across the street. Meanwhile, the Index of Industrial Production rose to 3.1% in April led by high growth in manufacturing. On the other hand, retail inflation fell to a record low of 2.18% in May. The wholesale price index based inflation eased to 2.17% in May this year from 3.85% in April. Among the other macro-economic data, India’s current account deficit in the fourth quarter widened to USD 3.4 bn, or 0.6% of gross domestic product (GDP), against USD 0.3 bn (0.1% of GDP) in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2015-16, owing to a widening trade deficit. Mostly sectoral indices traded in line with the benchmark and ended on flat note, in absence of any fresh trigger. For the week, BSE Sensex and Nifty were down by 0.8% each.

WEEKLY NIFTY TRADING VIEW FOR THE WEEK JUNE12, 2017-JUNE 18, 2017

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www.ShareTipsInfo.com

Events to watch this week

  • UK vote muddles Brexit process
  • ECB drops possibility of lower rates
  • Comey testifies on Russia probe
  • Eurozone maintains faster growth

The Week ahead:

Date

Country/Area

Release/Event

Sun, 11 Jun

France

Parliamentary elections, round one

Tue, 13 Jun

United Kingdom

Consumer price index

Tue, 13 June

eurozone

ZEW economic sentiment index

Tue, 13 June

United States

Producer price index

Wed, 14 Jun

China

Retail sales and industrial production

Wed, 14 Jun

eurozone

Industrial production

Wed, 14 Jun

United States

Retail sales and Consumer Price Index

Wed, 14 Jun

United States

FOMC meeting, Yellen press conference

Thu, 15 Jun

Switzerland

SNB interest rate decision


For the week,The day began with the European Central Bank meeting, followed by ex-FBI director Comey’s testimony later in the day. It wound up with the Conservative Party losing its majority in the House of Commons. Prior to the news from the United Kingdom, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high Thursday, despite Comey’s unsettling testimony regarding private meetings with US president Donald Trump. Despite increased uncertainty surrounding the Brexit process, global equities have shown little net change on the week. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose three basis points to 2.20% while West Texas Intermediate crude extended its drop to $45.50 from $47.35 a week ago after a forecast from the Energy Information Agency projected that US domestic oil output will top 10 million barrels a day in 2018. Equity volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), remained historically muted, virtually unchanged at 10.

NIFTY- 9,668.25
CRUDE OIL-Rs 2963barrel
GOLD-Rs 29,009 gram
Rs/$-Rs 64.25

MARKET ROUND UP

Key benchmark indices settled with modest gains in a volatile session of trade on Wednesday, 7 June 2017, after the RBI decided to keep the policy repo rate unchanged after a policy review meet on Wednesday, 7 June 2017. The Sensex had risen 80.72 points or 0.26% to settle at 31,271.28, its highest closing level since 5 June 2017.

Key indices settled with small losses after range-bound trade on Thursday, 8 June 2017, as caution prevailed in global markets ahead of key global events of outcome of elections in the UK and the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy review. The Sensex shed 57.92 points or 0.19% to settle at 31,213.36, its lowest closing level since 6 June 2017.

Key benchmark indices settled with small gains after a lacklustre session of trade on Friday, 9 June 2017, as most global stocks rose after the surprise UK general election result left the country facing a “hung parliament,” where no single party has a majority. The Sensex had risen 48.70 points or 0.16% to settle at 31,262.06, its highest closing level since 7 June 2017.

Both the Sensex, and the Nifty, had hit record high in intraday trade on Tuesday, 6 June 2017. The Sensex fell 11.23 points or 0.03% to settle at 31,262.06. The Nifty advanced 14.75 points or 0.15% to settle at 9,668.25. Broad market depicted strength. The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.49%. The S&P BSE Small-Cap index advanced 1.55%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

Macro Economic Front:

On the Economic Front,the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its meeting held on Wednesday, 7 June 2017, decided to keep the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged at 6.25%. Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF remains at 6%, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate at 6.5%.

A private business survey showed activity in India's services industry accelerated in May as domestic and foreign orders rose. The Nikkei/IHS Markit Services Purchasing Managers' Index rose to a seven-month high of 52.2 in May, from April's 50.2.

Major Action &Announcement:

State Bank of India (SBI) advanced 0.38%. The bank said that it has successfully concluded India's largest ever qualified institutional placement (QIP) of Rs 15000 crore which was launched on 5 June 2017. The QIP book was oversubscribed and demand exceeded Rs 27000 crore. Post issue, the Government of India's (GoI) shareholding in the merged entity will be at 57.07%. The announcement was made during market hours on Friday, 9 June 2017.

ICICI Bank rose 1.41%. The bank said its board of directors on Monday, 5 June 2017, approved the sale of a part of its shareholding in ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company in an initial public offering by the company, subject to requisite approvals and market conditions. The size and other details of the offer would be determined in due course, the bank said. The announcement was made at the fag end of market hours on Monday, 5 June 2017.

Wipro fell 2.75%. The company issued clarification to the stock exchanges regarding media news item titled “Wipro promoters in early stage of evaluating sale of part or whole business”. The company said that the news article is baseless and malicious. There is no truth to these unsubstantiated rumors, it added. The announcement was made after market hours on Monday, 5 June 2017.

Infosys was down 2.15%. The company clarified after market hours on Wednesday, 7 June 2017 that the news reports on pricing cuts seen by the IT industry being attributed to the Infosys chief operating officer (COO) are incorrect.

Dr Reddy's Laboratories rose 3.03%. The company announced the launch of Bivalirudin for injection, 250 mg/vial, a therapeutic equivalent generic version of Anglomax (Bivalirudin) for injection in the US market. The announcement was made during market hours on Tuesday, 6 June 2017. Anglomax brand and generic had annual US sales of around $198 million MAT for the most recent twelve months ending in March 2017, according to IMS Health.

Tata Motors was down 2.37%. Jaguar Land Rover retail sales rose 1% to 45,487 vehicles in May 2017 over May 2016 with continued strong demand for the Jaguar F-PACE, since sales began 12 months ago, and solid sales growth of the long wheel base Jaguar XFL from our China joint venture. The announcement was made during market hours on Wednesday, 7 June 2017.

TCS lost 2.01%. The company announced that the company and Siemens unveiled a new collaboration around Internet of Things (IoT) innovation. Focused on customers in the manufacturing, energy, building technology, healthcare and railway industries the partnership will enable customers to benefit from new data insights and services based on MindSphere, the cloud-based, open IoT operating system from Siemens. The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 6 June 2017.

Global Front:

In Overseas Markets,British Prime Minister Theresa May's Conservative party has fallen short of an outright majority in the UK's general election held on Thursday, 8 June 2017. May had unexpectedly called the snap election seven weeks ago, confident of sharply increasing the slim majority she had inherited from predecessor David Cameron before launching into the Brexit talks.

The ECB on Thursday, 8 June 2017, as expected, left interest rates unchanged but said it continued to expect interest rates “to remain at present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon” of its asset-buying program, which is set to run at least through December. In previous statements, the ECB had said it expected rates “to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time.”

US non farm payrolls increased 138,000 in May, missing the forecast, suggesting the labour market was losing momentum despite the unemployment rate falling to a 16-year low of 4.3%. Also, the number of jobs created in March and April was reduced by 66,000 from what was previously reported.

Global Economic News:

ECB drops rate-cut reference
With the economy on the upswing, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi announced on Thursday that the bank is dropping its bias toward cutting interest rates, but it retained its bias toward increasing quantitative easing, if necessary. The bank raised its growth forecast while at the same time cutting its inflation outlook. Risks to the economy are now broadly balanced, he said. The overall tone of Draghi’s press conference was decidedly dovish.

Former FBI chief testifies
Former Federal Bureau of Investigation director James Comey testified before the Senate Intelligence Committee regarding the FBI’s investigation into Russia’s interference in the 2016 US presidential election and President Donald Trump’s desire that the Bureau end its investigation of his former national security advisor Michael Flynn. Comey said he would leave it to Special Counsel Robert Mueller to decide whether the president’s conduct rose to the level of obstruction of justice. With Mueller’s investigation in an early phase, there will likely be many months of continued policy paralysis in Washington.

Eurozone economy leads the pack
Purchasing managers’ indices released this week show that the eurozone continues to outperform other developed economies. The eurozone composite PMI, which measures both manufacturing and services, stood at 56.8, unchanged from April. Meanwhile, the United States clocked in at 53.6 and the UK at 56.7, just below April’s 56.8 three-year high. Japan’s composite PMI registered 52.6 and China’s 51.5.

Catalonia schedules referendum
The president of the Spanish region of Catalonia, CarlesPuigdemont, announced on Friday that an independence referendum will be held on 1 October. The Spanish government strongly opposes the referendum on constitutional grounds, as it did in 2014 when the country’s constitutional court ruled a previous vote invalid. Under the Spanish constitution, Madrid could resort to suspending the region’s autonomy to thwart the plebiscite.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

May severely weakened in UK vote; Tories lose majority
Prime Minister Theresa May’s gambit to improve her Brexit bargaining position by calling a snap election did exactly the opposite, increasing the uncertainty around the Brexit process. The Conservative Party lost its outright majority in the House of Commons but will be able to form a government with the backing of the 10 members of Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party. Politically, May is seen as living on borrowed time, and could be replaced as party leader in the near future. Early indications are that May’s failure to secure a larger parliamentary majority undermines the case for a “hard” Brexit, which the Tories campaigned for. That is one reason — along with a weaker pound — that markets have taken the election outcome in stride so far. A softer Brexit is seen as less disruptive to UK business interests. One side note: A very poor showing by the Scottish National Party is seen as halting momentum toward a second referendum on Scottish independence.

 

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

 

BAJAJFINANCE

1380.00

CADILAHC

548.00

EDELWEISS

209.40


NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):

VIDEOIND

28.55

IDBI

58.75


MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY(%):

IIFL HOLDINGS

14.25

INFO EDGE

13.97

PAGE INDS

13.90


MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

ADANI TRANSMISSION

-13.37

VIDEOCON INDUSTRIES

-22.31

RELAINCE COMM

-10.90


Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:

Monday (12June)

Month Bill Auction

Tuesday (13 June)

Week Bill Auction& FOMC Meeting Begins

Wednesday (14 June)

Consumer Price Index

Thursday (15 June)

Hosing Market Index& Jobless Claims

Friday (16 June)

Consumer Sentiment


Fundamental Pick of the week:

Derivative Ideas Federal Bank Ltd For Target Rs.120.00


Derivative Ideas

FEDERALBNK added around 2.5% of open interest as long positions along with some delivery based buying in previous trading session. On charts, it is trading above important moving averages in higher highs—higher lows formation on daily charts. Hence, we recommend buying FEDERALBNK June futures as per levels mentioned below.

Strategy:

BUY FEDERALBNK JUNE FUTS BETWEEN 114-115, SL 112, TARGET 120.


TECHNICAL VIEW:

S3

S2

S1

NIFTY

R1

R2

R3

9,520

9,590

9,630

9,668.25

9,710

9,770

9,820


Nifty saw small correction on friday and closed just near the gann angle also also near the lower end of range at 9640, bulls need to hold the gann angle for upmove to continue towards 9750/9790. Bearish below 9610 for a move towards 9530/9480.  As per Geometric Time Cycle big move can be seen in market in next 2 days.Low made today was again 9608 near the gann angle, as shown in below chart and we saw a good bounce back. As per time cycle if today’s low is not broken we can see an up move towards 9720/9800. Bearish below 9610 for a move towards 9530/9480. 

Conclusion:

Markets extended their winning streak to the fifth consecutive week as the index yet again closed at a fresh life time high thanks to late buying on Friday. However, throughout the week, traders and investors remained jittery amid multiple global events like ECB meet and UK elections. Even upgrades in monsoon estimates and RBI’s decision of keeping repo rate and reverse repo rate unchanged at 6.25% and 6%, respectively didn’t bring any cheer to the market.

Start of this week witnessed ITC and HUL lead the main indices as the FMCG companies helped five of the top 10 most valued Indian firms raise their market cap by more than Rs 37,000 crore. The PSU Banking stocks were in action after media reports stated that the government was examining the possibility of further consolidation in the public sector banking space without waiting for their finances to improve. OMCs like BPCL, HPCL and IOC were in action after reports stated that petrol and diesel prices will be revised every day across the country from June 16.

Weekly Nifty Trading View for the Week May 22, 2017–May 28, 2017

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Events to watch this week

  • Special counsel appointed in Russia probe

  • UK’s May unveils election manifesto

  • Merkel’s prospects bright after state elections

  • Corruption scandal touches Brazil’s president

The Week ahead:

  • Flash manufacturing purchasing managers’ indices are released globally on Tuesday, 23 May

  • The Bank of Canada meets to set interest rates on Wednesday, 24 May

  • The minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting are released on Wednesday, 24 May

  • Preliminary UK gross domestic product data are released on Thursday, 25 May

  • Preliminary US GDP data and durable goods orders are reported on Friday, 26 May

  • The G7 summit begins in Taormina, Sicily, on Friday, 26 May

For the week,Global equities saw little net change this week, but there was a good bit of volatility midweek as political chaos intensified in Washington. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell to 2.25% from 2.34% a week earlier while West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to $50.30 a barrel from $47.50 last week amid signs OPEC and major producers such as Russia will retain output curbs through March of 2018. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), jumped as high as 15.50 at midweek before slipping to 11.90 on Friday. The week began at a placid 10.80.

NIFTY- 9,427.90
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,276barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,644 gram
Rs/$-Rs 64.64

MARKET ROUND UP 
Key indices clocked modest gains in the week ended Friday, 19 May 2017 as hopes rose for a possible interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) after the latest data showed a sharp fall in headline retail inflation and after reports suggested monsoon rains are expected to arrive on the southern Kerala coast two days ahead of schedule boosting sentiment. Good monsoon rains will further ease inflation going forward. 

Goods and services tax (GST) Council finalising GST rates for the goods and services further aided sentiment. The Sensex gained in four out of five sessions of the week. The Sensex and the Nifty, both hit fresh record highs on intraday as well as on closing basis during the fortnight. 

The S&P BSE Sensex gained 276.77 points or 0.91% to settle at 30,464.92. The Nifty 50 index rose 27 points or 0.28% to settle at 9,427.90. The gains of Nifty were less compared with Sensex's gains in percentage terms.
The Mid-Cap index fell 1.41%. The Small-Cap index dropped 1.93%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

Macro Economic Front: 
On the Economic Front,Macroeconomic data, Q4 results of India Inc., trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses in week ahead. 
The market may remain volatile as traders roll over positions in the futures & options (F&O) segment from the near month May 2017 series to June 2017 series. The near month May 2017 derivatives contract expire on Thursday, 25 May 2017.

Major Action &Announcement:
Maruti Suzuki India rose 0.89%. The company launched new Dzire sedan nationally on 16 May 2017. The announcement was made during market hours on Tuesday, 16 May 2017. The petrol variant of the vehicle is priced between Rs 5.45 lakhs to Rs 8.41 lakhs and diesel variant between Rs 6.45 lakhs to Rs 9.41 lakhs ex-showroom Delhi.

Bajaj Auto fell 0.73%. The company's consolidated net profit fell 13.44% to Rs 862.25 crore on 8.7% decline in total revenue from operations to Rs 5212.83 crore in Q4 March 2017 over Q4 March 2016. The result was announced during market hours on Thursday, 18 May 2017.

Tata Steel surged 12.05%. The stock was the biggest gainer from the Sensex pack. The company reported consolidated net loss of Rs 1168.02 crore in Q4 March 2017, lower than net loss of Rs 3041.88 crore in Q4 March 2016. The company's consolidated net sales rose 29.6% to Rs 33424.09 crore in Q4 March 2017 over Q4 March 2016. The result was announced after market hours on Tuesday, 16 May 2017.

Lupin rose 4.84%. The company launched Cialis (tadalafil), an oral PDE5 inhibitor, for the treatment of erectile dysfunction (ED) in adult males. Cialis was shown to improve erectile function compared to placebo upto 36 hours following dosing. The product is currently marketed in over 100 countries. The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 16 May 2017.

Hindustan Unilever gained 2.81%. The company's net profit rose 6.19% to Rs 1183 crore on 6.39% rise in total income to Rs 8969 crore in Q4 March 2017 over Q4 March 2016. The result was announced after market hours on Wednesday, 17 May 2017.

State Bank of India rose 3.7%. The bank's net profit rose 122.72% to Rs 2814.82 crore on 7.83% increase in total income to Rs 57720.10 crore in Q4 March 2017 over Q4 March 2016. The result was announced during trading hours on Friday, 19 May 2017. 
Gross non-performing assets (NPAs) stood at Rs 112342.99 crore as on 31 March 2017 as against Rs 108172.32 crore as on 30 December 2016 and Rs 98172.80 crore as on 31 March 2016. The ratio of gross NPAs to gross advances stood at 6.9% as on 31 March 2017 as against 7.23% as on 31 December 2016 and 6.5% as on 31 March 2016. The ratio of net NPAs to net advances stood at 3.71% as on 31 March 2017 as against 4.24% as on 31 December 2016 and 3.81% as on 31 March 2016. 

Global Front: 
In Overseas Markets,data on Markit flash Eurozone composite purchasing managers' index (PMI) for May, indicating health of the combined manufacturing and services sectors for that month will be announced on Tuesday, 23 May 2017. Markit Flash US Composite PMI for May will be announced on the same day. Nikkei Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI for May, indicating health of the manufacturing sector will also be announced on that day. Data on new home sales in US for April, measuring the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale for that month will be announced on Tuesday, 23 May 2017.
The Federal Open Market Committee will issue minutes of its previous policy meet held early this month on Thursday, 24 May 2017. The Federal Reserve had left its influential interest rate unchanged at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on 3 May 2017, citing a recent slowdown in growth that it said was likely transitory. The preliminary figures of US' Q1 gross Domestic Product will be announced on Friday, 26 May 2017.


Global Economic News:

Trump visits allies as pressure builds at home
US president Donald Trump embarked on his first overseas trip as president today, leaving behind a swirl of controversy in Washington. Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, Israel and the Vatican before a stop in Sicily for the G7 summit. On Wednesday, the US Department of Justice appointed former FBI director Robert Mueller as special counsel to investigate Russia’s intervention in the 2016 presidential election as well as any improper contact between Russian agents and the Trump campaign. Revelations that Trump disclosed extremely sensitive intelligence to the Russian foreign minister and ambassador during an Oval Office visit last week added to the firestorm.


Tory platform says no Brexit deal better than bad one
UK prime minister Theresa May unveiled the Conservative Party manifesto on Thursday, setting the stage for the general election on 8 June. On Brexit, the manifesto says that no deal is better than a bad one and that the United Kingdom seeks an agreement with the European Union that would take the UK out of the single market and customs union but continue close ties through a comprehensive trade and customs agreement. Meanwhile, the UK this week reported that its unemployment rate stands at 4.6%, its lowest level since 1975.


Merkel’s party flexes muscles
German chancellor Angela Merkel’s party, the Christian Democratic Union, has performed extremely well in German state elections in recent months. This potentially paves the way for Merkel to retain her post when Germany holds federal elections in late September. The CDU won the regional vote in Germany’s most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia, last weekend, unseating the Social Democrats in state elections for the third time since March. Earlier concerns over Merkel’s unpopular immigration stance appear to have faded amid a solid German economic recovery.


Brazil’s Supreme Court authorizes Temer bribery investigation 
Brazilian president Michel Temer, who came to office after the impeachment and removal from office of his predecessor, DilmaRousseff, was placed under investigation by the nation’s Supreme Court this week after allegations surfaced that Temer was taped condoning the bribery of a witness in a major corruption scandal. Temer, in a nationwide address, vowed not to resign, saying he did not buy anyone’s silence. In the wake of the allegations, stocks and the Brazilian real both plunged on fears the recent economic rebound could stall amid fresh political uncertainty.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Macron appoints center-right PM, pledges to overhaul Europe
After being sworn in on Sunday, French president Emmanuel Macron on Monday appointed Édouard Philippe as prime minister. Phillipe is a member of the Republicans, and his appointment is an effort to woo support from the center-right in case Macron’s En Marche! party fails to secure a majority in next month’s parliamentary elections. Later in the week, during a meeting with European Council president Donald Tusk, Macron vowed to work for the overhaul of Europe. Tusk praised Macron, saying Europe needs his energy, imagination and courage.


Japan’s growth picks up steam
Japan’s economy grew 2.2% in the first quarter of the year, its fifth straight quarter of growth, the longest string of gains in over a decade. Exports and domestic demand were both solid.
As of 17 May, with 458 companies in the S&P 500 Index having reported, Q1 earnings are expected to increase 15% from a year ago. Excluding energy, earnings are seen growing 10.7%. Revenues growth is estimated at 7.2%, falling to 5.3% ex energy.


NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

ADANITRANS

106.25

HINDUNILVR

1022.00

ITC

295.50

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):


CRISIL

1853.35

DIVISLAB

603.90

GLENMARK

658.00

RCOM

30.30

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY(%):


ADANI TRANSMISSION

17.80

tATA STEEL

12.05

CEAT LTD

9.17

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:


GLENMARK

-13.10

BHARAT FINANCIAL

-12.62

SREI INFRA

-11.69



Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are: 
Monday (22May)
Month Bill Auction
Tuesday (23 May)
New Home Sales 
Wednesday (24May)
MBA Mortgage Applications& Existing Home Sales
Thursday (25May)
Natural Gas Report
Friday (26May)
Consumer Sentiment


Fundamental Pick of the week:

Buy Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd For Target Rs.542.00

After a strong up move, ZEEL has retraced closer to its support zone of moving averages on daily chart and consolidating around the same. Traders should not miss this chance and utilize to initiate fresh longs in the given range.


Recommendation 
Buy Zee Entertainment Enterprises Limited  @520-524  Stoploss 510 Target 542.


Domestic Market Overview 
Markets may see some recovery, GST rate specific actions to be in limelight 
The Indian markets reeling under global pressure slumped and major benchmarks dropped close to a percent in the last session. Today, the start is likely to be mildly in green and some recovery can be seen after the sharp fall of last trade. Traders will be cheering the GST Council finalising tax rates of goods and services under the four-slab structure with essential items of daily use being kept in the lowest bracket of 5 percent. The Council fixed the rates for over 1200 items under the Goods and Services tax. Lots of daily consumption items such as milk, fruit and vegetables, jaggery or gur, foodgrain and cereals have been exempted from tax, while others such as sugar, tea, coffee, edible oil, mithai, and newsprint have been placed in the lowest slab of 5 per cent. Luxury cars will attract 28 per cent GST plus a cess of 15 per cent, while small petrol cars will face 28 per cent plus 1 per cent cess, and diesel small cars 28 per cent tax plus 3 per cent cess. Consumer durables, which now face a total tax of about 32 per cent, will be taxed in the 28 per cent slab.


The panel will discuss tax rates for gold and some other items today and could meet one more time if necessary to decide rates on remaining items. There will be sector specific buzz based on GST rates and steel stocks may see some uptrend as the GST rate on coal has been fixed at 5 percent. The move will bring down the input cost and would lead to stabilisation of prices. There will be some buzz in banking sector too, as the RBI has eased the norms of setting up bank branches and said branches manned by either bank’s staff or its business correspondents where services are provided for a minimum of four hours per day for at least five days a week will be called a banking outlet. There will be lots of important earnings announcements too to keep the markets in action.

TECHNICAL VIEW:


S3

S2

S1

NIFTY

R1

R2

R3

9,300

9,338

9,365

9,427.90

9,468

9,520

9,600

Nifty loose firm momentum and tanks around 100 points from previous session’s close. It tested support of upward sloping trend channel and closed near the same in the end. The trend strength indicator (RSI) came out of an overbought state now on the daily scale.A breach below 9400 could distort the firmness & hence could seen as a strong support area. Momentum traders should maintained as a trailing stop strategy for existing shorts.
Bank Nifty: Low made  was 22660 and close was at 22700 so bulls were able to hold the low of gann angles, holding the same we can bounce back towards 22820/22940/23110. Bearish below 22600 for a move towards 22500/22350. Bank Nifty made high of 22900 doing our target as discussed. Also Low made was 22628, so bulls were able to protect 22600 and close above 22700 suggesting bulls are still in game as bank nifty holding on to gann angles, Bulls above 22800 can see next move towards 22940/23110. Bearish below 22600 only, As per time analysis expect a trending move in next 2 days. 

Conclusion: 
Markets, in line with global peers, reacted sharply to the news that the US President tried to influence federal investigation, raising doubts over his policies ahead. Mostly sectoral indices, barring IT, ended lower and settled around the day’s low. Besides, caution ahead of the beginning of the two-day GST meet also induced the participants to book some profit.
Markets are slightly overheated after the recent rally and finally got the reason to lighten up. We feel 9350 would be crucial mark in Nifty ahead and any decisive slide below that level will derail the momentum. However, traders should see this as intermediate correction, which is normal and healthy for sustainability of the broader trend.

Know the proper timing when to invest

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If you are able to know how to invest in the stock market then you can always get good profits from the market. You have to get in hold of a good website where you can get to find many useful information of the market. If you fail to find the right time to invest in the market then you might have to lose all your money. You cannot just invest your money in the stocks and lose it. You need to know that it takes quite a long time to understand the market well. You also need to know about the working and functioning of the different concepts of the market so that you can clear all your doubts in the market. 

If you fail to understand the market then you would be solely responsible for all your losses that you incur in the market. In case you feel that you have understood the market well then you can surely reap profits from your invested cash in the stocks. So try to gather as much knowledge as possible by reading books on stock market or even watching the business news. In thus way you can know the market scenario and the right time to invest in the market. You should get to know the proper timing when to invest.

 

Do not be impatient

You might have seen people who lose their money investing in the stocks. One of the main reasons why they fail in the market is that they do not have enough patience when they invest in the market. You need to have good patience when it comes to investing in the market so that you remain on a much safer side. You should also not try to get influenced by your ignorant friends to invest in the market. They do not have any good knowledge of the market and they try to invest blindly. In such cases you have to lose your money investing in the wrong stocks. So the more research you make in the market, the more knowledge you can gain in the market. You have to get to know about the past performances of the different stocks in the market so that you can get the one that would help you in getting some good profits from the market. You can also get to know about the online stock trading where buying and selling of stocks is done all online. This type of trading is very popular because it helps in saving a lot of your time and money. 

 

Plan your decisions accordingly

You have to make your decisions very carefully and you should also try to determine which types of investments would be profitable for you. You have to know the advantages of both long term and short term investments. If you are ready to invest in the short term investment then you can go for day trading. But you should know that there are some investors who feel this type of trading to be very risky. So you should know all the important information of day trading. You would be glad to find that you have invested in the right stocks. You might lose some of your money in the market but this should not let you feel down. You should try to have good confidence on yourself and try to know what went wrong in the previous stocks that you incurred losses in the market.

 

Visit genuine websites

You have to make sure that you try to visit genuine websites so that you do not fall prey to websites that might try to rob off your money. You can have a look at the comments or feed backs of the different visitors so that you can know which would be the best website. You should try to put your best foot forward in order to reap the ultimate benefits from the market.

 

Thus you have to know the proper timing when to invest. If you are able to get the right time to invest then you would not have to worry about anything regarding your investments in the market.

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