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Events to watch this week

• Federal funds rate target raised to 0.75%–1.00%

• BOJ and BOE leave rates unchanged

• China snugs monetary policy

• UK parliament passes Brexit bill

• Dutch populists fare worse than expected

The Week ahead:

• The United Kingdom reports inflation data on Tuesday, 21 March

• The Bank of Japan releases the minutes of its recent monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, 21 March

• The US reports existing home sales data on Wednesday, 22 March

• Fed chair Janet Yellen speaks on Thursday, 23 March

• Global flash purchasing managers' indices are released on Friday, 24 March

For the week,Global equities rose this week after the US Federal Reserve indicated it will raise rates gradually and the populist Freedom Party fared worse than expected in Dutch elections. The US 10-year note yields fell to 2.51% from 2.58% a week ago despite this week’s hike in interest rates from the Fed. West Texas Intermediate crude prices were little changed, holding below $50 per barrel on continued high inventories. Global Brent was steady at $52. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), stayed about the same, at $11.20.

NIFTY- 9,160.05
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,197barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,519 gram
Rs/$-Rs 65.48

MARKET ROUND UP 
Domestic stock markets registered strong gains in the truncated week ended Friday, 17 March 2017, on the back of thumping victory for the BharatiyaJanata Party (BJP) in the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, surged 702.76 points or 2.42% to settle at 29,648.99. The Nifty 50 index jumped 225.50 points or 2.52% to settle at 9,160.05. The market was closed on Monday, 13 March 2017 for holi.

The Sensex settled well above the psychological 29,000 level while the Nifty breached the crucial 9,000 mark and settled at a record closing.The BSE Mid-Cap index advanced 3.94%. The BSE Small-Cap index gained 3%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

The ruling party at the centre, the BJP, had put up a decent show in remaining three states polls viz. Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa while it succumbed to Congress party in Punjab.
The election results could provide a much needed boost to BJP to accelerate the pace of reforms, including the rollout of the crucial Goods and Services Tax (GST), slated to be implemented from 1 July 2017.

Key benchmark indices closed with small gains on the final trading session of the week on Friday, 17 March 2017. The Sensex rose 63.14 points or 0.21% to settle at 29,648.99, its highest closing level since 29 January 2015. 

Macro Economic Front: 
On the Economic Front,the all-India general CPI inflation increased to 3.65% in February 2017, compared with 3.17% in January 2017. The data was announced after market hours on Tuesday, 14 March 2017.
Another data showed that India's exports rose 17.48% at $24.49 billion in February 2017 over February 2016. Imports rose 21.76% to $33.38 billion in February 2017 over February 2016. The data was announced after market hours on Wednesday, 15 March 2017.

Major Action &Announcement:
State Bank of India (SBI) rose 0.75%. The bank said that its Central Board at a meeting held on 15 March 2017 accorded its approval for raising of equity capital uptoRs 15000 crore during the year ending 31 March 2017 (FY 2017) through various modes as may be decided at the opportune time. The announcement was made after market hours on Wednesday, 15 March 2017.

Axis Bank advanced 0.28%. The bank said that it has reviewed and decided to keep the marginal cost based lending rates (MCLRs) of the bank unchanged across the tenors, effective from 18 March 2017. The one yea MCLR stands unchanged at 8.25%. The announcement was made after market hours on Thursday, 16 March 2017. 

TCS declined 0.59%. The company announced that its customer, Bank Yahav, is successfully operational with the TCS BaNCS Universal Banking platform, in a first of its kind for the Israeli market. The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 14 March 2017. 

Wipro rose 3.5%. The company announced the launch of the Wipro HOLMES Cloud BOT - a continuously learning digital consultant, that leverages Wipro's BoundaryLess Data Center solution. The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 14 March 2017.

L&T advanced 3.94%. The company said that L&T Realty has executed share purchase deal for selling its entire stake of 51% in L&T South City Projects to Pragnya Group for a consideration of Rs 190 crore. The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 14 March 2017.L&T announced during market hours on Thursday, 16 March 2017 that L&T Electrical & Automation FZE won a major order worth Rs 500 crore from Qatar Rail Company (QRAIL) for Phase I of Doha Metro.

Power Grid Corporation of India (PGCIL) was up 0.49%. The company said that its board of directors accorded approval for various investment proposals aggregating to Rs 1197.10 crore. The announcement was made on Saturday, 11 March 2017. 

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (Sun Pharma) rose 3.39%. The company said that US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) will lift the import alert imposed on the company's Mohali facility. The announcement was made during trading hours on Tuesday, 14 March 2017. The Mohali facility was inherited by Sun Pharma as part of its acquisition of Ranbaxy Laboratories in 2015. 

Global Front: 
In Overseas Markets,US Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected without accelerating its timeline for future tightening. The Fed raised its benchmark lending rate a quarter point and continued to project two more increases this year. Fed said that it would raise the benchmark federal-funds rate to a range between 0.75% and 1%.
The People's Bank of China raised the interest rates it charges commercial banks in the money market on the seven-day, 14-day and 28-day loans--also known as reverse repurchase agreements or repos--each by 0.1 percentage point. 

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) left policy unchanged on Thursday, 16 March 2017, sticking with its expansionary measures even though other major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are shifting away from years of unusually aggressive stimulus. 

Global Economic News:

Fed hikes rates, expects continued gradual rise 
The US Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee pushed policy rates up a further quarter of a percent at its 15 March meeting and indicated that it expects to hike rates twice more this year. Chair Janet Yellen said that the Fed’s economic forecasts have not changed since the last rate hike in December and that the pace of future rate hikes would be gradual. Yellen also said the Fed has confidence that the economic recovery is robust and is resistant to shocks. Despite the Fed hiking rates at two of its last three meetings, financial conditions are easier today than they were on the day of the Fed’s December hike: Equity prices are higher, the 10-year US Treasury note yield is lower, the dollar is weaker and corporate bond spreads are narrower.

BOJ and BOE stand pat; China raises short-term rates
While the Bank of Japan is not in a position to hike rates anytime soon, the Bank of England might be closer to a hike than markets expected. One member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Kristin Forbes, voted to hike rates by 0.25% on Thursday, and several other members indicated they would consider voting to hike rates if activity or inflation picks up further. With Brexit looming, the BOE finds itself in a policy bind given the potential for economic and market volatility because the process is unfolding at a time when inflation pressures appear to be rebounding. In the wake of the Fed’s hike, the People’s Bank of China raised its reverse repo rate 10 basis points in an effort to keep the USD/CNY exchange rate stable and limit capital outflows. Thursday’s hike was the second this year. However, China’s official monetary policy benchmark deposit rate remains unchanged. 

UK parliament passes Brexit bill
After several weeks of legislative wrangling, the UK parliament this week passed the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill and the queen has given Royal Assent, clearing the way for the government to begin negotiations to leave the EU. The two-year process is expected to be triggered by the end of this month.
G20 finance ministers meet
US treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin is set to meet with his G20 counterparts for the first time this weekend in Germany. Trade and currency issues will no doubt be at the top of the agenda. Mnuchin met with German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble on Thursday, with Mnuchin vowing to avoid trade wars while seeking to secure reciprocal trading arrangements.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Dutch populist party underperforms expectations
Support for Geert Wilder’s Freedom Party faded in the final days of the Dutch general election campaign with his party finishing a distant second to the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Rutte. Wilders had led in the polls for several months, but his party secured just 20 seats in the Dutch parliament versus 33 for Rutte’s party. Rutte will now need to forge a coalition with several other parties, a process which is expected to be lengthy, as Rutte has ruled out including the Freedom Party in any coalition. In addition to eyeing the performance of populist factions, observers monitoring the electoral performance of populist factions report increasing political fragmentation in Europe. For example, the Netherlands now has 13 parties claiming seats in parliament, with the leading party garnering only 21% of the vote.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:
Monday (20 Mar)
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 
Tuesday (21 Mar)
Week Bill Auction 
Wednesday (22 Mar)
Existing Home Sales
Thursday (23 Mar)
New Home Sales & Jobless Claims 
Friday (24 Mar)
PMI Composite Flash

Fundamental Pick of the week:
Buy Lupin Ltd For Target Rs.1,520.00
The stock has made a strong bottom in the last few weeks at sub 1400 with strong volumes and positive price action in the last few days.

The key technical indicators and RSI has also reversed turning upwards and as the stock is in poised for a breakout from current levels.The stock has closed near its short term averages confirming the uptrend and the recent swing high of 1550 could be tested in the next few weeks.
Thus, for trade, long position can be initiated for target of Rs 1520 with a stop loss of Rs 1415.

Indian Market Outlook:
Market on March 17, 2017 
The Nifty opened gap-up above 9200 but could not build upon the early gains. The Index declined throughout the day and closed just above the daily upper Bollinger Band. Nevertheless, this is a minor correction and the larger trend still remains positive. In terms of the wave structure, the rally is getting sub-divided into lower degree waves and has the potential to sustain. The weekly close confirms the bullish inside bar breakout on the weekly chart, which indicates that the mediumterm trend is in favor of the bulls. Short-term and medium-term targets on the upside are 9230 and 9500, respectively. On the flip side, 9060-9000 will act as a key support area from a short-term perspective.

TECHNICAL VIEW:

Other technical observations 
On the daily chart, the Nifty is trading above the 20- day moving average (DMA) and the 40-DEMA, ie 8947 and 8806 respectively. The momentum indicator is in a bullish mode on the daily chart.
On the hourly chart, the Nifty is trading above the 20- hour moving average (HMA) and the 40-HEMA, ie 9134 and 9081 respectively. The hourly momentum indicator is in a bearish mode. 

Bank Nifty View
Long above 21300 for a move towards 21450/21500.Bearish below 21000 for a move towards 20800/20600. High madewas 21336 and low made was 21127 so bulls broke 21300 with gap up but bears became active and pushed the bank nifty below 21300, but bulls also did not let 21000 break so the range trade continues. Weekly close above 21000 is a very bullish sign as we have the Highest Weekly close. Long above 21300 for a move towards 21450/21500.Bearish below 21000 for a move towards 20800/20600. 

Conclusion:

The Indian equity markets zoomed after BJP’s overwhelming victory in Uttar Pradesh. The week that went by was a historic one for Nifty and Sensex in terms of new achievements. Nifty breached its all time high and crossed 9200, however, the 9200 mark acted as resistance for the benchmark index. Sensex too soared 616 points in a day on Thursday and closed at the peak level at 29,586. Foreign investors have renewed confidence after the UP elections results boosted hope of further reforms. On the other hand, as widely expected, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the second time in 3-months. Interestingly, Nifty sectoral indices set new records as the market negated the US Fed rate hike and continued with the upward momentum.

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Markets to make a positive start reacting to assembly results and IIP data

The Indian markets before going for a long weekend made a flat closing with a positive bias. Today, the start is likely to be in green and the traders will be rejoicing the assembly election outcome, which was mostly on the expected lines. A strong election win in the largest state of Uttar Pradesh has raised the probability of the BJP winning the 2019 general elections as well, putting sense of stability among investors. Traders are also likely to get support from the economy front, where the industrial production bounced back into expansion in January, kicking off the financial year’s last quarter on a positive note. The index of industrial production (IIP) rose 2.7% in January from a year ago, the second fastest monthly growth this financial year. However, there will be some cautiousness too, with the RBI warning of a possible spike in inflation and stressing the need to make digital payments “safe and secure”, even as it felt that the adverse and transient impact on the economy has “by and large” dissipated already. Traders will be eyeing the inflation data to be released later in the day for further cues. The banking stocks will keep buzzing, as the Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has discussed options on resolution of bad loans with RBI Governor Urjit Patel and other top officials in finance ministry but creation of a 'bad bank' to hold such loans seemed not on top of alternatives.

Indian benchmarks end marginally higher ahead of assembly elections results

Indian benchmark indices give up most of their early gains to close marginally higher on Friday, amid profit taking in selective frontline stocks. Today’s session largely remained characterized by consolidation as the aimless indices moved only sideways in a tight band ahead of Assembly poll results of five states on Saturday. Sentiments got some support after various exit polls suggested the Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may comfortably cross the majority mark of 202 in the 403-seat UP Assembly, or come close to it. As for other states, most exit polls said the BJP was likely to retain power in Goa and wrest power from the Congress in Uttarakhand. Further, investors got some comfort with the report that the government's revenue collection from indirect tax during April-February grew by an impressive 22.2%, while that of direct tax rose by 10.7%. Total direct and indirect tax collections at February end stood at Rs 13.89 lakh crore, 81.5% of the target of Rs 16.99 lakh crore, as per the revised estimate for 2016-17. 

However, gains remained capped with CRISIL’s report that a revival in private sector investment cycle is likely to be deferred to fiscal 2019 as there is ample headroom in capacity utilization, stretched balance sheets and just a moderate pick-up in demand. In the next fiscal year ending March 2018, CRISIL predicts only a mild recovery due to an absence of fiscal and monetary stimuli and unsupportive global environment. Meanwhile, Telecom stocks gained traction on the report that the government is set to go for 5G spectrum auction this year -making an early move to initiate rollout of latest communications technologies. The government will also go for a fresh auction in 700 MHz band, which drew a blank last year as companies complained of high reserve price. Further, some auto stocks surged after the Vehicle sales across categories registered a marginal increase at 17,19,699 units in February 2017 from 17,03,736 in the same month last year. Domestic passenger vehicle sales rose by 9.01% y-o-y to 255,359 units in February, while Sales of commercial vehicles moved up 7.34% to 66,939 units in February. On the other hand, shares of gold loan companies like Manappuram Finance edged lower after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said NBFCs cannot lend more than Rs 20,000 in cash against gold. Earlier, NBFCs were allowed to disburse high value loans of Rs 1 lakh and above against gold only through cheque.

Asian markets made a mixed closing on Thursday

The US markets closed mostly higher on Monday, as investors refrained from making sizable bets ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting that is widely expected to deliver an interest-rate increase. With no economic data, investors were instead focusing on the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting that kicks off Tuesday. Investors will be eager to glean signals about the timing and pace of future rate increases from the FOMC’s policy statement. The market is pricing in about three rate increases of a quarter of a percentage point each for 2017. The market sees an 88.6% probability that the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee will vote for an interest-rate Wednesday, according to data from the CME Group. Expectations for a rate increase were cemented after solid February nonfarm-payroll data on Friday. According to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released showed that a measure of US inflation expectations mostly flattened in February after having risen in the previous two months. The survey of consumer expectations, an increasingly influential gauge of prices for the US central bank, showed that year-ahead inflation expectations were flat at 3 percent last month. The three-year ahead reading edged up to 3 percent, from 2.9 percent in January.

The Nasdaq was up 14.05 points or 0.24 percent to 5,875.78, S&P 500 gained 0.87 points or 0.04 percent to 2,373.47, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 21.5 points or 0.10 percent to 20,881.48.

January IIP surges to 2.7% against -0.4% in December

In a positive surprise, industrial output rose to 2.7% in January as compared to -0.4% in December. The cumulative growth for the period April-January 2016-17 over the corresponding period of the previous year stood at 0.6 percent.

Govt releases the draft rules for security of prepaid payment instruments

In a bid to make electronic payments more secure, the government has released the draft rules for transactions made through prepaid payment instruments (PPIs) like mobile wallets, smart cards and paper vouchers. The draft IT (Security of Prepaid Payment Instruments) Rules 2017, formulated by the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) will ensure adequate integrity, security and confidentiality of electronic payments effected through PPIs. Till date, these instruments are not governed by norms or rules, as far as cyber security issues are concerned.

As per the draft rules, the PPIs need to ensure end-to-end encryption of the data exchanged. Besides, the e-PPI issuers should assist customers with regard to secure use of the prepaid payment instruments and should have a privacy policy posted on its website.

They will also have to appoint a chief grievance officer, whose contact details will have to be prominently displayed on the website and procedure by which customers or any other person who suffers as a result of violation of these rules can make complaints to the Grievance Officer.

Furthermore, the PPI issuer will also need to establish a mechanism for monitoring, handling and follow-up of any cyber incidents and breaches. The rules also specify that every wallet issuer should review its security measures at least once a year, and after any major security incident or breach, or before a major change to its infrastructure or procedures. The last date for submittingcomments on the draft is March 20.

Indian govt continue to engage with Trump administration on H1B visa issue

In order to ease the worries of Indian professionals over H1B visa, the government has said that the steps taken by the US were aimed at illegal immigration and added that they would continue to engage with both members of the US administration as well as members of the US Congress on their interests and concerns pertaining to not just H1B visa but other issues as well.

Talking on the discussions held between Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar with his interlocutors in the US last week, External Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Gopal Baglay has said that there was a strong recognition as well as respect for Indian skills and contribution of the Indian technological manpower to the US economy. He also said it has been India's view that the presence of skilled Indian professionals is positive for the US economy as well, particularly when the US seeks to build a stronger economy. He pointed out that there are other advantages from the presence of Indian professionals in the US like backward linkages.

Calling the H1B visas a trade and business issue, Baglay further said that their views have been clearly conveyed to the concerned US interlocutors. He also said that the government believes that the plans of the US Administration for the US economy present an opportunity for the two countries to further consolidate their strong economic partnership.

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Events to watch this week

• US employment report beats expectations

• ECB raises inflation forecasts

• China lowers growth target

• Potential second Scottish referendum?

The Week ahead:

• The United States and Canada turn their clocks ahead one hour for daylight saving time on Sunday, 12 March
• China releases retail sales figures on Tuesday, 14 March
• Eurozone industrial production is reported on Tuesday, 14 March
• US retail sales for February are released on Wednesday, 15 March
• The US Federal Reserve meets to set interest rates on Wednesday, 15 March
• The Netherlands holds a general election on Wednesday, 15 March
• The Bank of Japan holds a rate-setting meeting on Thursday, 16 March
• The Bank of England meets to set interest rates on Thursday, 16 March
• The US reports industrial production data on Friday, 17 March

For the week,Global equities were little changed on the week, consolidating recent gains. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note continued to advance this week in anticipation of tighter monetary policy, rising to 2.58% from 2.49% a week ago. Rising US crude oil inventories sent prices tumbling this week. West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $49.25 per barrel from $53 a week ago, while global Brent crude slumped to $52.10 from $55.50. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), was little changed at 11.7.

NIFTY- 8,934.55
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,228barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,337 gram
Rs/$-Rs 66.61

MARKET ROUND UP 
The market ended with small gains last week as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of the key state election results. Investors remained wary ahead of state assembly election results of five states on Saturday, 11 March 2017. Investors were also cautious ahead of a US Federal Reserve meeting next week in which policy makers are widely expected to raise interest rates. 
Negative global cues also weighed on investors trading sentiment. Geopolitical tensions spooked investors after North Korea launched four missiles into the Sea of Japan. Also, China posting a rare trade deficit in February also added to global growth worries.

The Sensex settled a tad below the psychological 29,000 level after flirting with that level during the week.
In the week ended Friday, 10 March 2017, the Sensex rose 113.78 points, or 0.39% to settle at 28,946.23. The Nifty 50 index rose 37 points, or 0.42% to settle at 8,934.55. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 43.45 points, or 0.32% to settle at 13,365.59. The BSE Small-Cap index fell 15.21 points, or 0.11% to settle at 13,604.96.

Macro Economic Front: 
On the Economic Front,On macroeconomic data front, the index of industrial production (IIP) data for January 2017, will be released after market hours on Friday, 10 March 2017. India's industrial production fell by 0.4% year-on-year in December 2016, following a downwardly revised 5.6% growth in the previous month.

On the political front,results of various exit polls released on Thursday, 9 March 2017, showed that ruling party at the Centre, BJP, doing well in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and even Manipur, with the Congress and the AamAadmi Party locked in a tough contest in Punjab. However, the numbers given by the exit polls varied widely, suggesting convergences only in broad trends.
The exit polls predicted a hung assembly in the key state of Uttar Pradesh where BJP would emerge as the largest single party. Most polls also forecast a close fight between the Congress, which is seeking to return to power in Punjab after a hiatus of 10 years. They have predicted victory for BJP in Uttarakhand, but the saffron party, though likely to lead the table in Goa, was projected to fall short of a majority in the tiny coastal state.

In Uttar Pradesh, where five polls India News MRC, Times Now VMR, ABP Lokniti CSDS, India TV-C Voter and India Today Axis showed the BJP as leading the race, the saffron party's projected tally varied from 155 to 279 seats in 202 seats required for simple majority. The SP-Congress tally varied from 88 to 169 seats, while the BSP was shown winning just between 28 and 93 seats.
The exit polls showed Punjab witnessing a tight contest between the AamAadmi Party and the Congress. In Uttarakhand, three polls News 24 Today's Chanakya, India Today Axis and India News MRC showed the BJP winning the State. India TV- CVoter showed both the parties tied at 29-35 seats.

Final results of the elections which were recently held in five states including Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Manipur are due on Saturday, 11 March 2017. For the bulk of legislation to be signed into law, approval from both houses of parliament is required. The BJP and its allies account for 339 of the 545 seats in the lower house, called the LokSabha, but they only hold 73 of the 250 seats in the upper house, or RajyaSabha.

Major Action &Announcement:
State Bank of India (SBI) was the top Sensex gainer last week. The stock rose 2.60% to Rs 272.05. SBI announced after market hours on Thursday, 9 March 2017, that its board will meet on Wednesday, 15 March 2017, to consider inter raising of funds through equity capital by way of follow-on public offer (FPO)/rights lssue/employees share purchase scheme (ESPS) /employee stock option scheme (ESOS)/qualified institutional placement (QIP)/American depositary receipt (ADR)/global depository receipt (GDR) and any other mode or a combination of these at the appropriate time. 

Telecom major BhartiAirtel rose 2.59% to Rs 364.80. BhartiAirtel and Millicom International Cellular SA announced after market hours on Friday, 3 March 2017, that they have through their respective subsidiaries entered into an agreement for Tigo Ghana and Airtel Ghana to combine their operations in Ghana. As per the agreement, Airtel and Millicom would have equal ownership and governance rights in the combined entity.

Reliance Industries rose 1.82% to Rs 1,281.40. A massive bulk deal of 39.61 crore shares representing about 12.2% stake of the company was executed on the scrip at Rs 1,292.05 per share in opening trade on BSE on Thursday, 9 March 2017.

Tata Steel was biggest Sensex loser last week. The stock fell 5.49% to Rs 467.80. The company announced on Tuesday, 7 March 2017, that Tata Steel UK informed employees that it completed the consultation process on a proposal to close the British Steel Pension Scheme to future accrual. During the consultation process the company spoke to more than 4,000 employees at more than 90 face-to-face briefings across the UK. It also received feedback through trade union representatives.

ICICI Bank fell 1.92% to Rs 270.55. The bank announced after market hours on Thursday, 9 March 2017, that the committee of executive directors of the bank approved the proposal for fund raising by way of issuance of Basel III compliant unsecured subordinated perpetual Additional Tier 1 Bonds in single/multiple tranches in any currency through public/private placement on terms as may be decided at the time of issuance.

Global Front: 
In Overseas Markets,Asian markets closed mostly higher, as investors eyed US rate hike next week. China’s central bank governor told a news conference that making monetary policy neutral would help China’s supply-side reforms, reinforcing expectations that liquidity would be relatively tight. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said that China will not devalue its currency to stimulate exports. China’s exports for January and February combined rose 4.0 percent from the same period last year, while imports surged 26.4 percent, suggesting solid improvement in demand domestically and abroad. European markets were trading in green as comments by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi continued to support the markets. 

Global Economic News:

US payrolls rise more than forecast
Nonfarm payrolls rose 235,000 in February, more than economists had forecast. The strong data, along with upward revisions to prior months, have prompted Fed watchers to begin to forecast a faster pace of tightening by the US Federal Reserve. In addition to the potential for more-frequent rate hikes, observers are discussing the prospect of the Fed beginning the process of reducing the size of its balance sheet late in 2017 or early in 2018. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.7%, while the labor participation rate rose to 63%.

ECB signals a lower sense of urgency
European Central Bank president Mario Draghi said this week that deflation risks in the eurozone have “largely disappeared,” as ECB inflation forecasts were raised to 1.7% from 1.3% for 2017 and 1.6% from 1.5% in 2018. In a sign of receding deflation concerns, the ECB dropped from its opening statement the phrase that it is prepared to use “all available instruments available within its mandate.” However, Draghi warned that downside risks remain, particularly around the geopolitical sphere.

China signals slightly lower growth ahead
At its annual meeting of the National People’s Congress, China announced it had trimmed its official economic growth target to 6.5% for 2017 from a range of 6.5%–7% in 2016. Actual growth in 2016 was 6.7%. Also this week, China reported a rare trade deficit. Analysts are wary of data from January and February given the variable timing of the Lunar New Year holiday.

US trade gap widens
The United States reported its largest monthly trade deficit in nearly five years this week. January’s deficit rose 9.6% from December, to $48.5 billion. US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, calling for free and fair trade, said the latest data show that there is much work to be done on trade agreements.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Scottish leader floats notion of second independence vote
Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon says late 2018 could be the best time for a second referendum on independence from the United Kingdom. The timing would coincide with the shape of the UK’s Brexit deal becoming clear, the minister said. Scotland voted in 2014 to remain a part of the UK, but Brexit has set off fresh calls for independence. Further related to Brexit, UK prime minister Theresa May continues to tussle with the House of Lords, with the upper chamber voting to amend the Article 50 bill to force Parliament to vote on the final outcome of the government’s negotiations with the European Union. The bill will now be sent back to the House of Commons, where it is expected to be overturned.

German factory orders hit air pocket
German factories started the year with a thud as new orders plummeted 7.4% in January, the largest drop since the depths of the financial crisis in 2009. Orders rose 5.4% in December and survey data have been strong, so economists warn not to read too much into one month’s data.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:
Monday (13 Mar)
Labor Market Conditions 
Tuesday (14 Mar)
FOMC Meeting Begins & NFIB Small Business
Wednesday (15 Mar)
Consumer Price Index
Thursday (16 Mar)
Housing Starts& Jobless Claims 
Friday (17 Mar)
Consumer Sentiment

Fundamental Pick of the week:
STOCK IN FOCUS 
State Bank of India (SBI) closed 1.2% higher, outperforming benchmark NIFTY, which closed flat.SBI has been able to deliver relatively better operating performance compared to its peers despite elevated stress in balance sheet.
We believe that the Bank has been able to clean-up its loan book effectively, which reasonably assures us that it will continue to surprise positively on operating and asset quality fronts from FY18E onwards.
Further, we believe that demonetization drive will also have positive impact on SBI’s performance.
We reiterate our BUY recommendation on the stock with an SOTP-based Target Price of Rs320.

Indian Market Outlook:
NIFTY OUTLOOK:

Nifty traded with mix sentiments in last session due to profit booking at higher levels from traders. However, it recovered well from lower levels in second half of the session. Next important support seen at 8830 level.Nifty likely to trade with sideways sentiments in last session on profit booking at higher levels from traders. Nifty likely to trade with sideways sentiments and 8880 at lower side will be the trend deciding level for intraday session. Higher side resistance seen at 9000 levels. However, some profit booking at higher levels may limit the upside in NIFTY. Applying momentum Indicator RSI for 14-day period trading at level of 63.88 indicates that it is trading near over bought zone and may face resistance at higher levels. 

TECHNICAL VIEW:

Nifty Spot View 
Bullish above 8995 for a move towards 9033/9080 Exit Poll results will be came out. Low made today was 8899 and high made was 8946 so both bulls and bears were not able to break the range we mentioned. Plan remains the same short below 8890 gann angle support for a move towards 8850/8780/8720 and long above 8895 break gann angle for a move towards 9033/9080/9120. Nifty will open with huge gap on Monday and can hit a new life highs, but does it mean that we blindly go long, As a matter of fact on May 16 when BJP got majority in LokSabha we closed marginally in green after an upmove of more than 6%.

Conclusion:
Nifty hovered in a narrow range for the entire week and settled marginally in green, citing caution ahead of the states election results. Amid all, rotational buying in select index majors helped index to sustain at higher levels.
Next week, markets will initially react to the outcome of state election results and IIP data. Going ahead, the two-day US Fed meet will also remain on the participants’ radar.