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India's worst period of macro instability is possibly over, and both consumer inflation and trade deficit are expected to moderate albeit gradually, Morgan Stanley said.

"Global commodity prices were largely steady last month, with the exception of oil prices which continued to decline," Upasana Chachra, chief India economist at Morgan Stanley, said in the note on Wednesday.

"We believe the worst of macro instability is behind us now, though moderation in inflation and narrowing of India's trade deficit will be gradual."

The note pointed out that the indexes measuring global commodity prices, food prices and metal prices had stabilised in August and were down 9%-25% from their peak. Oil prices, meanwhile, had declined 8% month-on-month.

"These fuel-related global commodities constitute 13.2% of India's CPI (consumer price index) and 33.8% of the WPI (wholesale price index) basket," Chachra said. The rupee had also been relatively stable in August, she said.

Chachra reckons India's consumer inflation rate will rise to 7%-7.2% in August and remain at 7% in September before moderating gradually. The inflation rate has remained above the Reserve Bank of India's tolerance band for seven straight months.

The research house reckons India's trade deficitit likely peaked at $30 billion in July. The record trade deficit has prompted economists to revise India's current account deficit and balance of payments projections.

"We believe that lower commodity prices and a partial roll back of taxes on petroleum products will help improve the trade balance trend," Chachra said.

Telecom companies were issued allocation letters within hours after paying the first installment for 5G spectrum, prompting Bharti Enterprises Chairman Sunil Bharti Mittal to praise the government for the ease of doing business.

“No fuss, no follow up, no running around the corridors and no tall claims. This is ease of doing business at work in its full glory. In my over 30 years of first-hand experience with the DoT (Department of Telecommunications), this is a first! Business as it should be,” Mittal said in a statement on Thursday.

Telecom companies paid over Rs 17, 873 crore towards 5G spectrum dues.

Nearly half of the amount (Rs 8,312.4 crore) was paid by Bharti Airtel, which made advance payments for four years to free up cash for future investments.

Mittal said Airtel was provided the allocation letter for the designated frequency bands within hours of payment. E band allocation was given along with spectrum as promised.

“Leadership at work—right at the top and at the helm of telecom. What a change! Change that can transform this nation – power its dreams to be a developed nation,” Mittal said in his statement.

Airtel, which plans to roll out commercial 5G service later this month, acquired 19,867 MHz of spectrum in various bands worth Rs 43,084 crore in the recent auction of 5G spectrum. This includes spectrum in 3.5 GHz, 26 GHz, and certain low and mid-bands.

India’s government is studying a slower retirement of aging coal-fired power plants as it also adds newer sites, a move that would keep fossil fuel capacity higher for years and potentially stall efforts to hit climate goals.

Officials are considering a proposal to shutter less than 5 gigawatts of existing capacity by the end of the decade as the nation grapples with surging electricity demand and a global energy shortage, according to people familiar with the matter. That compares with plans drawn up in 2020 that proposed shuttering about 25 gigawatts by the same date.

Spokespeople for India’s power ministry and environment ministry didn’t respond to emails and text messages seeking comment.

India currently has about 204 gigawatts of coal power capacity and the plans under discussion would see that total expand to more than 250 gigawatts over the next decade, according to two of the people, who asked not to be named as the discussions are private. No final decisions have been made, the people said.

“Any rupee invested in new coal infrastructure takes India away from its net zero goals,” said Sunil Dahiya, an analyst with the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, which supports the faster adoption of less-polluting fuels. “It will load the power system with redundant capacities and hinder investments in clean power projects.”

A pipeline of 30 gigawatts of coal projects that are in advanced stages of construction should be used to replace old and inefficient plants, and India should prioritize investments in expanding its grid and on decarbonization projects, Dahiya said.

Under the proposals being considered, India’s coal plants -- which currently account for almost 70% of electricity generation -- would continue to handle peak evening power demand, even as solar and wind projects become increasingly able to fulfill day-time requirements, according to the people.

The world’s third-largest emitter doesn’t envisage hitting net-zero until 2070, and is aiming only for half of its electricity generation capacity to use clean fuels by 2030, giving the nation scope to continue relying on coal for decades more. Together with China, India frustrated efforts to set a date to phase out the use of unabated coal power at last year’s Glasgow climate talks.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government aims to build 500 gigawatts of clean power capacity by 2030, and to ultimately become a global hub for solar, energy storage and green hydrogen. In the shorter term, ministers are seeking to ensure stable energy supply to consumers and industry.

With gas prices stubbornly high, many new hydropower projects proving too complex and a planned roll-out of renewables in its early stages, policymakers see a need to extend reliance on the country’s coal fleet. Other nations globally have also been responding to high demand and severe shortages of natural gas by burning more coal.

Telecom operator Bharti Airtel has paid Rs 8,312.4 crore to the Department of Telecom towards dues for spectrum acquired in the recently concluded 5G auctions, the company said on Wednesday.

With the payment, Airtel has paid four years of 2022 spectrum dues upfront.

Airtel said it believes that this upfront payment, coupled with the moratorium on spectrum dues and AGR (adjusted gross revenue)-related payments for four years, will free up future cash flows and allow Airtel to dedicate resources to single-mindedly concentrate on the 5G rollout.

Telecom tycoon Sunil Bharti Mittal's Bharti Airtel made a successful bid of Rs 43,039.63 crore.

"This upfront payment of 4 years allows us to drive 5G rollout in a concerted manner given our operating free cash flow. Airtel also has access to Rs 15,740.5 crore in capital from the rights issue, which is yet to be called.

"With the ideal spectrum bank, best technology and adequate free cash flow, we are excited to bring to the country a world-class 5G experience," Bharti Airtel MD and CEO Gopal Vittal said in the statement.

The company had an option to pay Rs 3,848.88 crore upfront and the rest in 19 annual instalments.

The country's biggest ever auction of telecom spectrum received a record Rs 1.5 lakh crore worth of bids, with Mukesh Ambani's Jio cornering nearly half of all the airwaves sold with Rs 87,946.93 crore bid.

Over the last one year, Airtel said it has also cleared Rs 24,333.7 crore of its deferred spectrum liabilities much ahead of scheduled maturities.

Indian government bonds may be added to a global index next year, triggering passive inflows of about $30 billion that will help the country to finance its current account and fiscal deficits, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The nation’s sovereign bonds may be added to JPMorgan’s GBI-EM Global Diversified bond index with an initial 10% weightage, analysts Danny Suwanapruti and Santanu Sengupta wrote in a note to clients. India’s $1 trillion sovereign bond market is one of the biggest among emerging markets not to be part of any global index.

Goldman’s optimism comes even as the index inclusion has largely gone on the back burner after New Delhi desisted from making any tax changes for foreigners that would have helped Indian bonds settlement on international clearing platforms like Euroclear. The analysts wrote that both Chinese and Indonesian government bonds though not Euroclearable are part of the JPMorgan index.

“Adding India, which is a large, deep and high-yielding market, would help to diversify as well as boost the average yield of the overall index,” the analysts wrote. “Such a move would be beneficial to various stakeholders, including EM investors and the Indian government.”

Account openings for foreigners are still cumbersome in India but can be addressed by a longer lead time for inclusion, according to the note. The country has also made some progress on operational issues, like posting margin requirements and extended settlement timings, the analysts wrote.

Government bond yields fell sharply and the rupee notched up hefty gains on Wednesday as a steep decline in crude oil prices over the last few days eased concerns over high domestic inflation and India’s trade deficit, dealers said.

A decline in domestic headline retail inflation to a five-month low in July also bolstered the appetite for bonds, dealers said.

Yield on the 10-year benchmark 6.54 per cent 2032 paper was last at 7.21 per cent, 8 basis points lower than previous close.

Bond prices and yields move inversely. A decline of one basis point on the 10-year bond yield corresponds to a rise in price of around 7 paise.

At 10:00 am IST, the rupee was at 79.29 per US dollar as against 79.66 at previous close.

Bond and currency markets resumed trading on Wednesday after an extended weekend break as markets were shut on Monday and Tuesday for Independence Day and Parsi New Year, respectively.

Brent crude futures plummeted around 3 per cent on Tuesday, dropping to 6-month lows, as concerns over slowing global economic growth reduced demand for the commodity.

The most active Brent crude contract rose marginally on Wednesday, trading 0.1 per cent higher at $92.47 per barrel by 0035 GMT, Reuters reported.

From a 14-year high of around $140 per barrel in March, crude oil prices have cooled significantly, easing the pressure on India’s import bill and inflation.

“Rupee has opened on a stronger note today following a more than 5 percent decline in crude oil prices over the long weekend and the current risk on sentiment leading to a rally in US and Indian equities but expect some pressure on rupee from a weakening yuan,” Mecklai Financial Services wrote.

India's inflation based on the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) declined to 13.93 percent in July, according to data released by the commerce ministry on August 16.

The WPI inflation was 15.18 percent in June, down from an over three-decade high of 16.63 percent in May.

In July 2021, WPI inflation stood at 11.57 percent.

Another month of double-digit increase in wholesale prices in July means WPI inflation has remained above the 10-percent mark for 16 months in a row.

The fall in WPI inflation in July was driven by lower food prices, with food inflation dropping to 9.41 percent, down 300 basis points from June.

ndia and the US have done more than any other nation in the fight global against COVID-19, the White House's top health official has said, as he highlighted the massive efforts by the two countries to vaccinate their people along with supporting and donating to other nations to tackle the pandemic.

Dr Ashish Jha, the White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator, said he had a lot of time in the last two and a half years thinking about and working on the pandemic.

"I can't think of two nations that have done more to vaccinate and protect their own populations, and to donate and support and vaccinate and protect the world than India and the United States, Jha said in his remarks at a reception hosted by India's Ambassador to the US, Taranjit Singh Sandhu, at the India House to celebrate 75th anniversary of independence.

So it is in that light that I think we look at an evening like tonight, where Indians and Indian Americans and Americans come together to celebrate what I think is a monumental occasion, Jha said. He said it was "an incredible honor and pleasure" to celebrate 75 years of India's independence, democracy and the Indian-American friendship.

As a proud Indian-American, I am grateful for the words that our President Joe Biden used, who reminded us that the three or three and a half million of us who are Indian Americans, the vibrant Indian American community has made America more innovative, more inclusive, and a stronger nation, he said. Jha said India and the US are the world's two most consequential democracies.

"High frequency price data suggest that headline inflation is likely to remain around July levels in August...We expect headline inflation to remain above 6% until February 2023, and core CPI inflation to remain sticky at a shade under 6% in the remaining months of FY2023," Nomura economists Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi said in a note.

India's consumer inflation dipped to 6.71% in July, helped by a slower increase in food and fuel prices. The year-on-year figure, published on Aug. 12 by the National Statistics Office, was marginally lower than the 6.78% forecast by economists in a Reuters poll, but it remained above the central bank's tolerance band for a seventh month in a row.

The Reserve Bank of India aims to maintain inflation at 4.00% in the medium term, with a tolerance range of 200 basis points on either side.

"The outlook on food inflation still faces uncertainties given the uneven rainfall. For the first two weeks of August prices of vegetables, cereals (rice and wheat) and pulses are tracking higher. Rice sowing has been impacted by deficient rainfall in key producer states," said Gaura Sen Gupta, India economist at IDFC First Bank.

Even as inflation eases, economists believe the RBI's monetary policy committee will continue to hike policy rates though the quantum of such moves may come down as compared to the previous three actions.

The MPC has raised key policy rate by 140 basis points to 5.40% since May as stubborn inflation continues to remain a major concern. The next policy decision of is due on Sep. 30 with most market participants expecting another hike.

While Nomura and IDFC First Bank expect the RBI to hike repo rate by another 60 bps to 6.00%, Barclays eyes another 50 bps rise in interest rates over the next two meetings. Meanwhile, Nomura sees inflation to average 6.8% in this fiscal, IDFC First Bank sees it at 6.5%, below central bank's 6.7% prediction.

"We expect the RBI to deliver two 25 bps rate hikes each at the September and December meetings, taking the repo rate to 5.90%. However, if global commodity prices continue to decline, we note the risk that the bank does not raise rates in

December," Rahul Bajoria, chief India economist at Barclays said.