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Weekly Nifty Trading View for the Week Feb 27, 2017 – Mar 05, 2017

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Events to watch this week

  • US equities set more records

  • Fed signals possible March rate hike

  • Trump supports US border tax

  • Le Pen gains in French polls

  • Greece open to reforms

The Week ahead:

  • US president Trump is scheduled to speak to Congress on Tuesday, 28 February

  • French GDP data are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, 28 February

  • Preliminary US fourth-quarter GDP data are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, 28 February

  • PMI Manufacturing Index data are released on Wednesday, 1 March

  • US initial jobless claims figures are released on Thursday, 2 March

  • US Federal Reserve chair Yellen is scheduled to speak on Friday, 3 March

For the week,US equities continued setting records this week — including 10 record daily closing highs in a row for the Dow Jones Industrial Average as of 23 February. Investors remain optimistic that US president Donald Trump will cut taxes, reduce regulation and implement a sweeping infrastructure spending program. The S&P 500 Index is up 5.3% year to date and has gained over 21% over the past 12 months. Market volatility increased slightly this week, but continued to remain relatively low. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell 2.9% this week to 2.34%, as of early Friday morning. Oil prices remained relatively unchanged this week.

NIFTY- 8,939.50
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,617barrel
GOLD-Rs 29,640 gram
Rs/$-Rs 66.83

MARKET ROUND UP 
Key benchmark indices clocked decent gains in a truncated week ended Thursday, 23 February 2017, as record hitting streak on Wall Street helped the upmove. A surge in index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) and positive global stocks during the week also supported gains on the bourses. 
The Sensex moved above the psychological 29,000 mark in intraday trade on Thursday, 23 February 2017. The market gained in all the four sessions of the week. Indian stock markets remain shut on Friday, 24 February 2017 on account of Mahashivratri.
The Sensex gained 424.22 points or 1.49% to settle at 28,892.97. The Nifty 50 index rose 117.80 points or 1.33% to end at 8,939.50. 
The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.81%. The BSE Small-Cap index gained 0.89%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

Macro Economic Front: 
On the Economic Front,International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on 22 February 2017 that India's overall outlook remains positive, although growth will slow temporarily as a result of disruptions to consumption and business activity from the recent withdrawal of high-denomination banknotes from circulation. But the nation's expansion will pick up again as economic reforms kick in, said the IMF in its latest assessment. IMF reduced is growth forecasts to 6.6% for fiscal year 2016-17 and to 7.2% in 2017-18. 
Challenges remain, however, and there is little scope for complacency. A key concern is the health of the banking system, which is still dealing with a large amount of bad loans, and also heightened corporate vulnerabilities in several key sectors of the economy.

Major Action &Announcement:
TCS gained 3.05%. TCS announced on 20 February 2017, that the board of directors of the company at a meeting held on 20 February 2017, approved a proposal to buyback up to 5.61 crore shares of the company for an aggregate amount not exceeding Rs 16000 crore, being 2.85% of the total paid up equity share capital, at Rs 2,850 per share.

Tata Motors rose 2.05%. Tata Motors said it is desirous of offering the sixth series of its rated, listed, unsecured, redeemable, non-convertible debentures (NCDs) aggregating to Rs 500 crore. In this regard, the company will hold a meeting of its duly constituted committee of the board on 2 March 2017. The announcement was made during trading hours on Thursday, 23 February 2017.

Maruti Suzuki India rose 0.72%. The company announced that its smart hybrid vehicles Ciaz SHVS and Ertiga SHVS have crossed cumulative sales of 1 lakh units in February 2017. This marks the success of Maruti Suzuki's efforts in hybrid and electric mobility in India. The announcement was made on 20 February 2017. 

BhartiAirtel declined 0.93%. The company announced on 23 February 2017, that it has entered into a definitive agreement with Telenor South Asia Investments (Telenor) to acquire Telenor (India) Communications (Telenor India). The acquisition is subject to requisite regulatory approvals. As part of the agreement, Airtel will acquire Telenor India's running operations in seven circles - Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Gujarat, UP (East), UP (West) and Assam. These circles represent a high population concentration and therefore offer a high potential for growth. 

Shares of Reliance Industries (RIL) surged 9.97%. RIL announced at the fag end of market hours on Tuesday, 21 February 2017, that its subsidiary Reliance JioInfocomm (RJIL) breached the 100 million customer mark in 170 days. Jio announced that in addition to its own market leading tariff plans, it will also offer its customers the option to choose the highest selling tariff plan of any of the other leading Indian telecom operators, but with 20% more data than what any other operator provides.

NTPC fell 2.54%. The stock was the top loser from the Sensex pack. The company said that the 115 megawatts (MW) out of 260 MW of Bhadla Solar Power Project of NTPC has been commissioned. With this, the installed capacity of NTPC's solar power projects has touched 475 MW. The total installed capacity of NTPC on standalone basis has become 41177 MW and that of NTPC group has become 48143 MW. The announcement was made on 22 February 2017. 

Global Front: 
In Overseas Markets,Asian markets made a mixed closing on Thursday, following their US counterparts after the Federal Open Market Committee released the minutes of its two-day meeting ended Feb. 1, where members believed it might be appropriate to lift U.S. interest-rates “fairly soon.”  Chinese stocks slipped, with realty and construction-related stocks leading declines, after reports emerged that China's financial regulators are working on new rules to rein in asset management risks. Meanwhile, European stocks ping-ponged between small gains and losses, as investors sifted through earnings reports and assessed the mixed tone on U.S. interest rates from the Federal Reserve.

Global Economic News:

Fed signals potential March rate hike 
In minutes released this week, US Federal Reserve officials signaled the potential for a rate hike at its next policy meeting in March. Citing potentially increased spending and reduced taxation under the Trump administration, the minutes suggest that the Fed may act more aggressively to keep a lid on inflation. The central bank increased the federal funds rate to between 0.5% and 0.75% in December and indicated then the potential for three quarter-percentage-point increases this year. Markets are expecting two rate hikes in 2017, and while odds of an increase have risen for March, they still remain low, at around 22%, according to data from CME.

Frexit fears rise on Le Pen's gains 
While French presidential candidates François Fillon and Emmanuel Macron still hold commanding leads over Marine Le Pen in the upcoming elections, the right wing candidate has narrowed the gap, according to French polls released this week. Ms. Le Pen favors dropping out of the euro currency, and the markets aren't taking any chances. In reaction to the polls, the spread on French five-year government bonds rose to its highest level since the eurozone debt crisis. Trading volume for credit default swaps on French government debt also surged as spreads spiked. Credit default swaps are held by some investors for insurance against debt defaults. Rising CDS spread levels indicate that investors believe the chance of a default has increased.

Greece open to reforms
Greece agreed to legislate pension and other structural reforms this week, generating some optimism that negotiations on its bailout terms would resume after months of gridlock. Yields on Greek government debt fell to their lowest level in a month, although much work remains to be done.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Trump voices support for border tax
Donald Trump said this week that he supports a form of the proposed "border adjustment tax" (BAT), a tax on all imports. Trump suggested that such a tax would entice companies to relocate manufacturing operations to the United States, which would create more US jobs. Retail stocks have been pummeled in recent months over speculation that a border tax would be implemented. The retail industry imports most goods it sells in the US. J.C. Penney announced this week that it would close more than 100 stores, and rivals Kohl's and Macy's announced they would lease some of their retail space to other retailers in an effort to generate more revenue from real estate assets. Under the proposal, US export income would be tax free, which could benefit some energy companies, such as crude oil exporters.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

BAJAJFINSV

3900.30

BHARATFORG

1094.00

BHARTIARTL

400.65

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):


NOT YET

----

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:


JINDAL ST& PWR

25.61

MARKSANS PHARMA

22.41

JUST DIAL

16.49

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:


SJVN LTD

-6.14

MANAPPURAM FIN

-4.63

RALLIS iNDIA

-4.41



Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:
Monday (27 Feb)
Pending Home Sales Index 
Tuesday (28 Feb)
Consumer Confidence
Wednesday (01 Mar)
PMI Manufacturing Index
Thursday (02 Mar)
Jobless Claims 
Friday (03 Mar)
PMI Services Index

Fundamental Pick of the week:
Derivative Ideas 
NIFTY futures added around 14.6% of open interest as long positions. It has rolled 49% into next series so far. Put writing was seen at 8900 and call writing was seen at 9000 strike. We suggest doing bull spread as per levels mentioned below.

Strategy:
BUY NIFTY 8900 CE AT 35 & SELL 9000 CE AT 6, NET PREMIUM PAID 29, SL 14, TARGET 80.

Indian Market Outlook:
Nifty futures traded with firm sentiments last week tracking bearish USD/INR futures prices and continue buying support from traders. It likely to trade with firm sentiments in current week as well on buying support at lower levels from traders. It witnessed strong buying support from traders and managed to hold the gains at higher levels at end of the week which indicates continuation of firm sentiments in current week as well. If it managed to sustain above 8900 level than it may witness firm sentiments till 9130 levels. Breaking of 8850 level with good volume will make Nifty bearish and down side may come due to selling pressure below that level. Overall trend for Nifty futures likely to remain positive for the week and may witness some profit booking at higher levels which may limit the upside in Nifty. Technically, It took good support of Fibonacci retracement levels which indicates continuation of firm sentiments. 8995 will be the Crucial level to watch out for in current week. Rise in volume and fall in open interest with firm price movement indicates resistance at higher levels in current week. 

TECHNICAL VIEW:


S3

S2

S1

NIFTY

R1

R2

R3

8,760

8,860

8,900

8,939.50

8,975

9,020

9,070

Nifty Spot View 
Nifty traded with firm sentiments in last session due to buying support from traders. Next important support seen at 8870 level. Nifty likely to trade with sideways sentiments and 8910 at lower side will be the trend deciding level for intraday session. Higher side resistance seen at 8990 levels. However, some profit booking at higher levels may limit the upside in NIFTY. Applying momentum Indicator RSI for 14-day period trading at level of 71.63 indicates that it is trading in over bought zone and may face resistance at higher levels.

Bank Nifty Future View 
Bank Nifty traded with firm sentiments due to buying support from traders. It likely to trade with sideways sentiments in Intraday session on profit booking at higher levels from traders. Bank Nifty has next resistance at 21150 levels while 20700 is the strong support for the same. If Bank Nifty trade firm then it may test next resistance of 21150 levels. Technically, Rise in volume and fall in open interest with volatile price movement indicates continuation of volatile sentiments in intraday session.

Conclusion:

High made was 8960 near our target of 8981 and closed above 8910 suggesting another attempt will be made to break the range of 8981 for next move towards 9050/9120. As the market moves higher traders need to tighter there SL, As per gann analysis only on close below 8827 the current uptrend will end, Till 8827 is held bulls will make merry and move towards the life highs of 9120. Trailing position is the best way to ride such strong trending market and not speculating when market will form a top. High made was 8982 near the gann angle resistance level, as we have been discussing in process doing our target of 8982 above 8910. Bulls should protect the level of 8847 now for the current trend to continue. Fresh long above 8990 for move towards 9060/9120.Bearish only below 8840 for a move towards 8757/8700/8672.

Online trading and the Stock Market

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What are stock markets? The stock market is a vital and fascinating source of income for both companies and share holders. The stock market makes it possible for almost anybody to buy stakes at a company that they know and have faith in. People who have been trading in company shares have seen it become a habit and then in many circumstances, their regular source of income. It is a very lucrative business as well for the share holder once he gets accustomed to the rules of the trade. His hard-earned money will grow in multiples if he is perseverance and enthusiastic enough. The stock market provides a lucrative opportunity for investors to rapidly grow their money. There is hardly any better way around to making quick cash! But all at once, the stock market is also very unpredictable and, in certain instances, it is a high-risk proposition. The following tips will prove to be handy if you wish to make the stock market your source of income. If you are an investor by profession, you would most certainly choose the stock market over any other form of investment. The returns in the stock market are much higher and quicker than anything else, and given the qualification that you are able to dedicate your full neutral time to the stock market, there is no better option available. Form a personal strategy that you can believe in earnestly. Just the once you have shaped your individual strategy of functioning, bond dutifully with it. Let us have a look at online trading and the Stock Market.

 

What is online trading?

Online stock trading is simply the modus operandi by which we can transact in stocks through the use of the internet. It offers a self-directed, broker-free advance to stock trading. It is an ultra-fast procedure where deals can be completed in a matter of a few seconds, without being at the mercy of the stock agent. Totally anyone with an online trading account, an internet connection and some ready money to do without can become involved in online stock trading. Online stock trading is more and more becoming massively accepted with the heaps of stock traders and greenhorns equally. All the same it, like any other form of trading, is not without its risks.

Online stock market business education groundwork

Online stock trading literally exposes you to the elements of the stock market. It can be very laborious to trade in competition online if you do not have adequate awareness of the stock market.  Albeit you have adequate comprehension and know-how of the stock market and are impulsive to take that first step, you ought to as well have a satisfactorily speedy and absolutely dependable internet connection. There are quite lots of above-board cases of populace having their internet connection snapping without apprehension when they are making online business deals. A large number of these inopportune public have had lasting hitches recuperating their money missing owing to a wobbly internet service. It is decisive to have a steadfast internet connection. Also remember that you will most indubitably run into mechanical matters like a listless operation, profound internet passage, or a dreadful server. Hence the brightest thing to do here is to have a backup organized. Unless you have the knowledge of different concepts like sensex, BSE…etc you can never progress and make good profits in the market.

Think and then invest

Understand that the stock market is one of the riskiest propositions. Start by investing money that you can do without. Albeit you are fast, do not augment your ventures drastically. For quick-fix traders, precariousness can be either a fortunate thing or a nuisance, conditional on how watchful and quick-acting they are. A triumphant dynamic dealer always looks to the fore to get the most out of on this explosive nature. A rapid climb in stock prices will signify that the on the go trader will without more ado be able to sell his stocks at a higher price and make a profit. A stock market is never conventional! Thus, we are able to find out about online trading and the Stock Market.

Global markets consolidate after heady rise as investors review economic outlook

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Indian Indices: Asian markets opened mixed with profit booking keeping some indices under pressure while others saw value buying emerge. The US$ saw weakness creep in after 'dovish' comments from the Federal Reserve saw yields soften & currency weaken. All eyes will be on the Japanese 'yen' which could see strength against the $ & the Bank of Korea as rates may be kept unchanged in today's policy meet.


Nifty scaled 8900 & is now poised for the highest expiry close in the last year with Reliance for a change leading from the front. The mid cap & bank indices are already trading @ new all time highs & the Nifty may by next week also attempt to scale higher levels. For today expect high volatility as derivative expiry will see stocks oscillate between gains & losses.


The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 28948.61, up by 83.90 points or 0.29% after trading in a range of 28904.34 and 28972.79. There were 15 stocks advancing against 15 stocks declining on the index.The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.34%, while Small cap index was up by 0.33%.The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 8950.55, up by 23.65 points or 0.26% after trading in a range of 8935.40 and 8957.15. There were 24 stocks advancing against 27 stocks declining on the index.

 

MARKET INDICATORS

·           

 

Group ATopGainers

 

 

Company

Price (Rs)

% chg

Amtekauto

38.65

7.21

Idea

119.10

5.91

J&Kbank

78.40

4.95

Rcom

37.55

5.03

Group ATopLosers

 

 

Cesc

855.45

-2.03

GSFC

115.00

-1.67

Raymond

564.65

-1.52

Deltacorp

134.80

-1.50

Market Statistics

 

 

 

BSE

NSE

Advances

1357

825

Declines

1054

624

 

Technical view: Nifty will face resistance around 8968 the previous high touched in September 2016 & finds support around 8870.Bank Nifty will also face resistance @ 21000 & find support @ 20750


INDEX PERFORMANCE

 

 

Indices

Support

Resistanes

Sensex

28780

29050

Nifty

8901

8986

 

Trading ideas :Apollo Hospitals (Buy above Rs 1330, for target of Rs 1370, SL at Rs 1310): Stock has broken out from a rising channel pattern on the daily charts and the price outburst has been accompanied with impressive volumes. Apollo Hospitals is swiftly moving in a higher top higher bottom cycle and has also closed above its 200-DMA placed at Rs 1295. We advise to Buy Apollo Hospitals above Rs 1330, Stop Loss at Rs 1310 and Target of Rs 1370.


Derivative Snippets: In the last session, the markets ended on a lackluster note. Nifty ITM call options witnessed short covering while Nifty 8900PE and 9000CE added fresh short positions, which indicate a muted expiry day trading session. Based on the mentioned data, an expected close for the February F&O expiry would be between 8900-9000 levels.

FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs 259.21 crore.

FII’s index future long/short ratio at 2.0x vs 2.2x. Index Put option long/short ratio since January expiry at 0.5x with an addition of ~27K short contracts.  


Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were BhartiAirtel up by 5.35%, Idea Cellular up by 5.06%, TCS up by 1.96%, HCL Tech up by 1.48% and Infosys up by 1.47%.

On the flip side, Grasim Industries down by 1.10%, Eicher Motors down by 1.09%, NTPC down by 1.02%, Tata Steel down by 1.00% and Axis Bank down by 0.90% were the top losers.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:  The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Telecom up by 4.03%, TECK up by 1.70%, IT up by 1.32%, Consumer Durables up by 1.21% and Realty up by 0.54%, while Power down by 0.40%, Metal down by 0.38%, Utilities down by 0.34%, Auto down by 0.23% and Basic Materials down by 0.19% were the losing indices on BSE.

 

 

On the global front: On the global front, Asian shares were trading mostly in red, while the dollar made an uneven recovery from losses suffered after Federal Reserve minutes indicated a cautious approach to raising US interest rates. South Korean shares were flat after the central bank kept interest rates unchanged for an eighth straight month, opting for stability as it monitors uncertainties ranging from an unpredictable North Korea to global policy challenges and a political scandal at home.

 

Global Signals:The Asian markets were trading mostly in red; Hang Seng decreased 89.27 points or 0.37% to 24,112.69, Nikkei 225 decreased 70.23 points or 0.36% to 19,309.64, Taiwan Weighted decreased 14.43 points or 0.15% to 9,764.35, Shanghai Composite decreased 10.93 points or 0.34% to 3,250.29 and FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI decreased 0.05 points or 0% to 1,708.03.On the other hand, KOSPI Index increased 0.09 points to 2,106.70 and Jakarta Composite increased 7.24 points or 0.14% to 5,365.93.

 

Why research is important in stock market and Share trading

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Stop Worrying. Let Expert guide you and help you in EARNING PROFIT.FILL SHARE MARKET TRIAL FORM TO EARN


You have got to be on familiar terms with the fact that no enormous accomplishment has been consummated devoid of research. A first round research is vital to reap luscious profits from any business, not only the stock market. A form of investment market is a kind of a fair-play market. A type of investment market is an open market for the trading of company-owned form of investment as well as their derivatives at a consented price. The stock market is vast and intimidating. It is a huge cash-flow jungle with all the big and accomplished players just knowing what to hunt for and getting their right kill! One wrong step and you can fall at the jaws of failure. However you need not fail, need you? Especially if you are armed to the teeth with extensive research outcomes and what to do’s and what not to do’s! It is a huge and all-inclusive network of quite a lot of thousands of economic transactions. It dos not have a physical existence as an entity. However at the same time the form of investments are listed on a physically existing entity known as the form of investment exchange. All stock exchanges also deal in form of investments traded confidentially. So research is the important thing in stock market

Non liquid securities

This basically points to a definite value. In addition to all this, the large proportion of derivatives nullify each other which only means that a derivative wager on the possibility of an event occurring or not occurring is pitted against a comparable lacking in originality ante on the event not in point of fact happening. A lot of such comparatively non liquid securities are valued as per the specific model in place of an actual price in the share market. The stock markets are lucrative, are a lot more safe and sound than stocks, and for the most part a great deal more logical thing to do for investors than painstakingly investing in the market. The stock markets actually reroute your hard earned money through numerous channels and a more than enough blend of sundry ventures, in conjunction with stocks, bonds, intercontinental ventures, in addition to new securities that in cooperation bring about an enormously extra defensive fortification than the share bazaar perhaps will for ever warranty.

The stock market provides a very good chance for form of investment investors to quickly make money as well as grow their made money. There is practically no better way around to making such easy money! Yet the reality remains that at the same time, the stock market is also very unpredictable and very precarious.

How to take home a first-class turnover from your investments?

Fulfill scores of research and research-related studies. A dead ringer for what they say spend a lot more time to perfect your tools of the trade and one hour to use the tools, in the same way you are wealthy and wise if you devote the maximum of your time to research rather than action. Construct a graphic representation of the major companies. Cram their form of investment market history. Zero in on companies that have the best record of form of investment market winnings – there are many of them out there! Moreover be on the look out for the silent ones. Some of them may not have come under the public eye yet the reality remains that have been doing rather well for themselves in the form of investment market. Make the most of on such opportunities if you happen to come across some. You need on no account be hard line in the form of investment market. Being hard line may give you big gains upon a period of time, yet the reality remains that at the same time, they also bring in big risks! Thus, for all intents and purposes, have patience and play it safe. Your income may not be something to brag about yet the reality remains that it will at least be consistent and you will have that all important gain in the haggle serenity. Peacefulness is the leading ingredient or conclusion in the stock market; and it is one of the toughest things to get your hands on.

This was a small session on how research is the important thing in stock market.

Sensex up 103 pts; Relance zooms 11% tech & HDFC twins drag

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Indian Indices: After hovering near highest point of the day, Indian equity benchmarks pared some gains ahead of F&O expiry but continued to trade in fine fettle in late afternoon session. Positive trend in global markets buoyed investors' sentiments. Traders remained optimistic with Union minister M Venkaiah Naidu’s statement that several views have been presented on demonetisation, it may have caused initial discomfort or loss to public but will reap benefits in longer run. He added that it is like a bitter pill for long term ill. On sectoral front, select banking stocks were trading higher with the Deputy Governor Viral Acharya's statement that in order to decisively deal with the banking system's stressed assets, which have doubled from 2013, the Reserve Bank of India is examining a plan involving two models - a Private Asset Management Company (PAMC) and a National Asset Management Company (NAMC). Some support also come with a private report stating that India’s millennial population is a massive disruptive force and driven by the supportive demographics along with government's policy action, Indian economy is likely to reach $5 trillion by 2025.

The BSE Sensex is currently closed at 28864.71, up by 103.12 points or 0.36% after trading in a range of 28789.30 and 28963.52. There were 12 stocks advancing against 18 stocks declining on the index. The broader indices were trading in red; the BSE Mid cap index was down by 0.60%, while Small cap index was down by 0.39%. The CNX Nifty is currently shut up at 8926.90, up by 19.05 points or 0.21% after trading in a range of 8905.25 and 8960.75.

MARKET INDICATORS

·           

 

Top Movers (Group A)

 

 

Company

Cmp

% chg

Gainers

 

 

Reliance

1207.65

10.97

Wabag

547.65

4.39

KTKBank

127.65

4.29

Justdial

530.85

4.22

Losers

 

 

Marksans

48.05

-5.32

Titan

440.10

-3.75

GPPL

156.95

-3.62

Pageind

13837.75

-3.62

INDEX PERFORMANCE

 

 

Index

Close

% Chg

Sensex

28864.71

0.36

Nifty

8,926.90

0.21

 

Crporate Front: Weighed down by the development, shares of company declined as much as 3.20 per cent to hit an intra-day low of Rs 1510.00 apiece on the Bombay Stock Exchange. In a similar fashion, stocks of company tanked 2.99 per cent to Rs 1,513.40 apiece on the National Stock Exchange.

 

Macroeconomic front: In a major push for solar power development in the country, a cabinet panel on Wednesday approved increasing the capacity of solar parks and projects from 20,000 MW to 40,000 MW. "The enhanced capacity would ensure setting up of at least 50 solar parks -- each with a capacity of 500 MW and above -- in various parts of the country," Power and Renewable Energy Minister PiyushGoyal told reporters following a meeting here of the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA).

 

On the global front: On global front, European markets were trading in green following firm cues from Wall Street and Asia. Asian markets were trading in green, although gains remained capped due to caution ahead of the Fed's latest meeting minutes due out later in the day. Back home, in scrip specific development, Vijaya Bank traded higher after Small Industries Development Bank of India (SIDBI) signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Vijaya Bank for providing concessional finance to micro and small enterprises (MSEs).


Commodity Updates:

Commodity Prices (MCX):

Commodity

Rs

% Chang

Gold

29281.00

-0.07

Silver

42757.00

-0.18

Crude oil

3630.00

-1.04

Natural Gas

170.80

-0.99

Alluminium

125.60

0.16

Copper

403.00

-0.56

 

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Energy up by 4.26%, Oil & Gas up by 1.80%, Realty up by 0.34%, Bankex up by 0.31% and Telecom up by 0.18%, while IT down by 1.60%, TECK down by 1.33%, Utilities down by 1.07%, Consumer Durables down by 1.02% and Power down by 1.00% were the top losing indices on BSE.

Top Nifty Movers:The top gainers on Nifty were Reliance Industries up by 9.74%, Axis Bank up by 3.50%, Coal India up by 3.00%, BhartiInfratel up by 2.03% and Tata Motors - DVR up by 1.88%. On the flip side, NTPC down by 2.87%, Infosys down by 2.50%, Grasim Industries down by 2.49%, Power Grid down by 2.40% and TCS down by 2.04% were the top losers.

 

Global Signals:

Asian markets were trading mostly in green; KOSPI Index increased 3.68 points or 0.17% to 2,106.61, Jakarta Composite increased 6 points or 0.11% to 5,346.99, Shanghai Composite increased 7.89 points or 0.24% to 3,261.22, Taiwan Weighted increased 14.85 points or 0.15% to 9,778.78 and Hang Seng increased 238.33 points or 0.99% to 24,201.96. On the flip side, Nikkei 225 decreased 1.57 points or 0.01% to 19,379.87 and FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI decreased 1.5 points or 0.09% to 1,705.05.

All European markets were trading in green; UK’s FTSE 100 increased 23.67 points or 0.33% to 7,298.50, France’s CAC increased 31.54 points or 0.65% to 4,920.30 and Germany’s DAX increased 53.28 points or 0.45% to 12,020.77.

 

US indices hit fresh new all time highs as better results, stronger $ & rise in commodities fuelled stocks higher.

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Indian Indices: Asian markets opened in the green as overnight US cues prompted buying in equities with Dow Jones scaling another fresh high. The return of risk on trade is seeing stocks & indices touch fresh highs with the Brazilian 'Bovespa' leading from the front. The Index has given returns of over 15% YTD (year to date) & over 66% on a yearly basis.


Nifty scales 8900 for the 1st time in 5 months with Bank Nifty closing @ 20860 which is the highest all time closing high recorded. The left out feeling is seeing huge pent up buying which is keeping indices overbought with any fall being brought into. Oil &gas, banks, auto's& financials are contributing to the gains while IT stocks saw profit booking after a heady rally in the last week.


The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 28611.63, down by 49.95 points or 0.17% after trading in a range of 28603.41 and 28726.10. There were 14 stocks advancing against 16 stocks declining on the index. The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.22%, while Small cap index was up by 0.24%.The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 8868.75, down by 10.45 points or 0.12% after trading in a range of 8865.25 and 8897.15. There were 26 stocks advancing against 25 stocks declining on the index.

MARKET INDICATORS

·           

 

Group ATopGainers

 

 

Company

Price (Rs)

% chg

Reliance

1168.60

7.38

Goderejpor

373.80

5.10

Rajeshexpo

522.15

4.37

KTKbank

126.25

3.15

Group ATopLosers

 

 

Marksans

48.90

-3.65

Titan

443.00

-3.12

BEL

1521.00

-2.44

GPPL

159.30

-2.18

Market Statistics

 

 

 

BSE

NSE

Advances

1357

771

Declines

1054

717

 

Technical view: Nifty will now attempt the previous high of 8968 hit in September 2016 which will act as resistance while support now emerges closer to 8840 which was the earlier resistance. Bank Nifty is in blue sky territory with new highs being seen & will attempt 21200 while support now comes around 20576.


INDEX PERFORMANCE

 

 

Indices

Support

Resistanes

Sensex

28638

28925

Nifty

8872

8955

 

Trading ideas :INDIACEM (Buy above Rs 173, for target of Rs 182, SL at Rs 168): Stock has broken out from a cup and handle pattern, which has aided India Cement resume its prior uptrend. The breakout has been accompanied with impressive volumes. Other oscillators also indicate that the current momentum would extend. We advise to Buy INDIACEM above Rs 173, Stop Loss at Rs 168 and Target of Rs 182.


Derivative Snippets: Markets traded with a positive bias, as the index call option writers continue to cover their short positions for the third straight day. Nifty 8800 CE to 9000 CE strikes witnessed massive short covering.

FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs. 1435 crores.

FII’s index future long/short ratio at 2.2x vs 2.5x with an addition of ~22K short contracts.

The Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) committee has suggested setting up of a fiscal council to oversee and verify the credibility of the government’s Budget numbers and fiscal targets for any given year.


Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were Reliance Industries up by 7.22%, Axis Bank up by 2.31%, Coal India up by 2.14%, BhartiInfratel up by 2.10% and Bosch up by 1.99%.

On the flip side, Infosys down by 1.78%, NTPC down by 1.25%, TCS down by 1.05%, Tata Steel down by 0.91% and Eicher Motors down by 0.82% were the top losers.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:  The top gainers on the Sensex were Reliance Industries up by 7.28%, Axis Bank up by 2.19%, Coal India up by 2.05%, BhartiAirtel up by 1.91% and Asian Paints up by 1.81%. On the flip side, Infosys down by 1.59%, NTPC down by 1.16%, TCS down by 0.96%, Tata Steel down by 0.76% and GAIL India down by 0.73% were the top losers.

 

 

 

On the global front: On the global front, Asian shares were trading mostly in green, joining a record-setting night for world markets as investors cheered upbeat factory activity in Europe and solid earnings on Wall Street. China’s home price growth slowed for the fourth straight month as demand cooled further in the biggest cities, signaling government curbs to defuse a bubble in the sector were starting to pay dividends.

 

Global Signals: The Asian markets were trading mostly in green; FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI increased 0.76 points or 0.04% to 1,707.31, KOSPI Index increased 3.01 points or 0.14% to 2,105.94, Taiwan Weighted increased 18.19 points or 0.19% to 9,782.12 and Hang Seng increased 207.54 points or 0.87% to 24,171.17.On the other hand, Nikkei 225 decreased 11.38 points or 0.06% to 19,370.06, Jakarta Composite decreased 6.5 points or 0.12% to 5,334.49 and Shanghai Composite decreased 4.4 points or 0.14% to 3,248.93.

 

Oil Marketing Companies Decent show-Report-Sharetipsinfo

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OMCs reported decent results in Q3 driven by strong volume growth and inventory gains. Core earnings of OMCs adjusted for inventory gains/losses came in at Rs12.7/12.1/7.6/share for BPCL/HPCL/IOCL versus reported EPS of Rs15.7/15.7/8.4.

Marketing margin of BPCL/IOCL improved by 2.3%/2% qoq to Rs4,143/3,860/mt. However, HPCL’s margin contracted qoq by 13.1% to Rs4,058/mt. Total debt declined by 8.3% qoq but interest cost increased by 42% qoq to Rs11.8bn due to capitalization of IOCL’s Paradip refinery which led to increase in interest cost.

Adjusting for refining inventory gain, GRM for Q3FY17 for BPCL/HPCL/IOCL came in at $3.9/4.08/5.1/bbl. Gross UR on kerosene came in at Rs16bn which was entirely compensated by the government and thus there was no burden on OMCs.

After adjusting for one-offs, core earnings of IOCL & BPCL came in-line with our estimates but HPCL missed the mark on this metric as marketing margins disappointed. However, broadly reported earnings of all three OMCs were in-line.

Hence, we expect upgrades to FY17E EPS by 20-25% with FY18 EPS following suit. Also, the OMCs look attractive on a dividend yield basis (c5% on CMP). So, we maintain our buy BUY recommendation on all the three OMCs with IOCL being our most preferred pick.

IOCL outperformed on GRM

GRM for Q3FY17 for BPCL/HPCL/IOCL came in at $5.9/6.4/7.7/bbl which implies an increase of 90% qoq on an average. Increase in GRM was mainly driven by widening of product crack spreads due to tighter demand/supply dynamics in the market and inventory gains across the OMC pack with IOCL achieving the highest GRM.

 Blended marketing margin declined

The OMC pack witnessed a decline in marketing margins on a qoq/yoy by 3.5%/9.2% yoy to Rs4,020/mt (avg. of OMCs) as HPCL’s marketing margin fell by 13.1%. Petrol’s marketing margin during YTDFY17 averaged Rs1.54/ltr while diesel’s averaged Rs1.42/ltr.

Interest cost increased qoq

Overall borrowings of all the three OMCs on a qoq basis declined by 8.3% to Rs695bn. However, interest cost increased by 42% qoq to Rs11.8bn mainly due to capitalization of IOCL’s Paradip refinery which led to increase in interest cost

 

Overall market share increased

For Q3FY17, IOCL lost market share by 44bps to 42.92% and HPCL/BPCL gained market share by 66/6bps to 18.67%/19.65%. Combined market share of the OMC increased by 28bps qoq to 81.2%.

Key takeawaysfrom BPCL’sconcall

Reason for lower GRM in Q3 due to commissioning of Kochi refinery’s new units, the impact (around $1/bbl) of which will be there in Q4FY17 as well. Management has indicated 80% utilisation in FY18 of the incremental 6MT capacity in Kochi refinery. Incremental benefit in terms of GRM on entire 15Mt volume is expected to be around $2/bbl while opex will increase by $0.5/bbl. The FCCU will get commissioned in Q1FY18. Kochi Tax deferral on a sustainable basis is Rs2.5bn. p.a. for 15 years.

 

Kochi refinery’s GRM stood at $6.1/bbl while the GRM of Mumbai refinery was at $5.75/bbl

during the quarter.

 

PSU market share in petrol & diesel was c95% & slightly less than 95% respectively.

 

Loss due to discount of 0.75%on digital payments was about Rs.180-190mn. till Dec.

2016.

 

Increase in other operating expenditurewas largely on account of higher transportation

expense and no one-off items.

 

There was a 2% increase in diesel volume growthin 9MFY17 for the oil PSUs. However, due to competition private players have grown at a faster rate versus oil PSUs.

 

Digital paymentsaccount for around 28% of total marketing sales currently a bulk of which comes from the loyalty program.

 

9MFY17 capex was Rs120bn.out which Rs60bn. was spent on the Russian acquisition. Capex for FY17 is guided at Rs125bn. excluding the Russian acquisition. FY18 capex is guided at Rs80bn. and for FY19 it is Rs105bn.

 

FY18 regular maintenance capexshould be Rs30bn., refining capex should be Rs.25bn., marketing capex is Rs7.5bn. & E&P capex is guided at Rs15bn.

 

Consolidated debt stood at Rs300-320bn. Standalone debt is Rs160bn, BPRL is

Rs140bn. and Bina debt is at Rs40bn. $ denominated debt is 90%+ of the total d

ebt balance. Debt repayment in FY17 is around $300mn. which is due in March 2017 and another $250mn. in Nov.-Dec. FY18.

 

Scheduled maintenanceof Kochi refinery is scheduled for Oct.-Nov. 2017.

 

Petchem plant-It is expected to be commissioned by the end of

2018. Out of the total capex budget of Rs46bn., Rs.4.15bn. has already been spent.

Key takeaways from Indian Oil concall

Paradip refinery-It has fully stabilised as of now with all units including secondary units

currently operating. Utilisation was 80% in the last couple of months while the full year

averageutilisation stood at 63%. Product evacuation and pipeline dispatches have also

started. VAT deferment for Paradip would be cRs18bn. on an annual basis. Interest cost

expensed would be around Rs9.5bn. p.a. going forward while depreciation should be

Rs.12bn. p.a. Opex for Paradip refinery is $2/bbl which is in-line with the opex of IOCL’s

other refineries at $1.92/bbl. Going forward, GRM will improve significantly as the Paradip refinery processes 100% high sulphur crude from FY18.

 

GRM-Core GRM (ex. Paradip& inventory gains) was $5.47/bbl for Q3 ($4.79/bbl in

Q2FY17) while including inventory gains, GRM (ex. Paradip) stood at $7.67/bbl. Core GRM excluding inventory gain was $4.92/bbl in 9MFY17 ($7.95 including inventory gains).

 

Entry tax-IOCL has been affected in the states of Bihar, UP and Haryana. Most of the

entry tax related cases might go against IOCL. Rs.1,923crores of provision has been

created for entry tax related charges and the management doesn’t expect any such

provisions going forward.

 

Capex guidance-FY18 capex has been guided at Rs196bn. while FY19 capex has been

guided atRs250bn.

 

Debt-Total DebtofRs370bn., 70% is in foreign currency and 30% is in INR terms.

 

Other pointers-1)Market share in MS increased in Q3. 2) Fuel & loss stood at 8.5% in

9MFY17 which is slightly lower compared to the same period last year.

Outlook and Valuation

After adjusting for one-offs, core earnings of IOCL & BPCL came in-line with our estimates but HPCL missed the mark on this metric as marketing margins disappointed. However, broadly reported earnings of all three OMCs were in-line. Hence, we expect upgrades to FY17E EPS by 20-25% with FY18 EPS following suit. Also, the OMCs look attractive on a dividend yield basis (c5% on CMP). So, we maintain our BUY recommendation on all the the OMCs with IOCL being our most preferred pick.

 

Have a Nice Day  !!

Sensex up 193 pts, Nifty ends above 8850; Buy back lifts lifts TCS 4%

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Indian Indices: Indian equity benchmarks continued their momentum to trade near highest point of the day in late afternoon session as broadly positive global indices and a strong rupee buoyed investors' sentiments. Sentiments also remained optimistic with the report that GST Council on Saturday approved a law to compensate states for any loss of revenue from the implementation of the new national sales tax but deferred approval for enabling laws to the next meeting. The council will meet again on March 4 and 5 to approve the legally vetted draft of the supporting legislations for Central GST (C-GST) and Integrated GST (I- GST), days before the start of the second leg of the Budget Session. Besides, investors opted for bargain-hunting as well as short-covering ahead of derivatives expiry this week. On sectoral front, buying was witnessed in most of the steel sector stocks with Care Ratings report that the country's steel production and consumption is likely to remain higher in 2017-18 from 89.79 MT of crude steel during 2015-16 backed by an increase in infrastructure allocation in the Budget.

The BSE Sensex is currently closed at 28661.58, up by 192.83 points or 0.68% after trading in a range of 28419.27 and 28652.91. There were 23 stocks advancing against 7 stocks declining on the index.The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.67%, while Small cap index was up by 0.78%.

The CNX Nifty is currently shut up at 8879.20, up by 57.50 points or 0.65% after trading in a range of 8809.80 and 8863.95. There were 37 stocks advancing against 14 stocks declining on the index.

MARKET INDICATORS

·           

 

Top Movers (Group A)

 

 

Company

Cmp

% chg

Gainers

 

 

Marksans

48.70

19.95

DCB Bank

152.65

10.58

Punjlloyd

22.15

10.20

Jindalsteel

100.20

7.80

Losers

 

 

Aiaeng

1462.00

-2.86

Havells

414.55

-2.66

Coromande

333.15

-2.43

Gruh

369.95

-1.78

Market Statistics

 

 

 

BSE

NSE

Advances

1450

843

Declines

647

251

 

Crporate Front:

Shares of DilipBuildcon rallied over 5 per cent on the Bombay Stock Exchange after the realty major said it has received a letter of award issued by National Highways Authority of India for the Project of four laning of Tuljapur-Ausa Section of NH-361 from Km 0.000 to km 55.835 under NHDP Phase IV on Hybrid Annuity Mode in the State of Maharashtra.

 

Macroeconomic front:

In a bid to bring awareness among the youth regarding the growing cyber attacks and cyberbullying, Delhi-based IT risk assessment and digital security services provider Lucideus on Monday launched a first-of-its-kind cyber security course.

 

On the global front:

On global front, European markets were trading in green as investors eyed earnings and fresh economic data, as well as monitoring for any more details from President Donald Trump on his economic policies. Asian markets were trading mostly in green. Back home, in scrip specific development, Tata Steel traded higher on exploring possibility of entering overseas markets like Bangladesh and Myanmar with retail branded steel solution products. The company is taking this step boosted with success of its solution business in the retail segment in the domestic market.

Commodity Updates:

Commodity Prices (MCX):

Commodity

Rs

% Chang

Gold

29260.00

-0.34

Silver

42789.00

-0.34

Crude oil

3639.00

0.97

Natural Gas

185.60

-2.93

Alluminium

125.90

0.2

Copper

402.40

0.55

 

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Metal up by 2.24%, Basic Materials up by 1.40%, Telecom up by 1.40%, Realty up by 1.36% and Utilities up by 1.24%, while there were no losing indices on BSE.

Top Nifty Movers:The top gainers on Nifty were Tata Steel up by 4.12%, Idea Cellular up by 3.35%, GAIL India up by 2.45%, BPCL up by 2.36% and Asian Paints up by 1.87%. On the flip side, Axis Bank down by 0.84%, ITC down by 0.80%, Tech Mahindra down by 0.76%, HDFC down by 0.75% and Yes Bank down by 0.61% were the top losers.

 

Global Signals:

Asian markets were trading mostly in green; KOSPI Index increased 3.81 points or 0.18% to 2,084.39, FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI increased 5.13 points or 0.3% to 1,712.81, Jakarta Composite increased 6.34 points or 0.12% to 5,357.27, Nikkei 225 increased 16.46 points or 0.09% to 19,251.08, Shanghai Composite increased 37.89 points or 1.18% to 3,239.96 and Hang Seng increased 112.34 points or 0.47% to 24,146.08. On the flip side, Taiwan Weighted decreased 26.72 points or 0.27% to 9,753.20.

All European markets were trading in green, UK’s FTSE 100 increased 12.45 points or 0.17% to 7,312.41, France’s CAC increased 28.94 points or 0.59% to 4,896.52 and Germany’s DAX increased 78.54 points or 0.67% to 11,835.56.

 

 

Markets start week on quiet note after huge February rally as Japanese data disappoints even as M&A activity picks up

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Indian Indices: Asian markets opened mixed with the Japanese 'Nikkei' seeing marginal losses as export data released today disappointed coming below most estimates. However the huge Kraft Heinz bid for Unilever globally would be the talking point this week as M&A activity picks up. This also should see higher valuations for most FMCG stocks as value buying props up stock prices. 


Nifty saw a huge move till almost 8900 led by banks with Bank nifty scaling new all time highs in morning trade on Friday. However domestic profit booking trimmed the gains with Nifty closing @ 8821.The left out feeling seems evident for most foreign investors & any fall is being used as an opportunity to buy with huge scramble to buy HDFC bank shares on Friday seeing the stock hit fresh all time highs. For this holiday shortened week expect volatility to rise as we head for derivative contracts expirythis Thursday.


The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 28499.07, up by 30.32 points or 0.11% after trading in a range of 28419.27 and 28521.16. There were 18 stocks advancing against 12 stocks declining on the index. The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.57%, while Small cap index was up by 0.71%.

 

MARKET INDICATORS

·           

 

Group ATopGainers

 

 

Company

Price (Rs)

% chg

Marksans

47.60

17.24

Jindalstel

100.65

8.28

Adanient

99.10

5.76

HCC

41.05

5.66

Group ATopLosers

 

 

AIAENG

1471.50

-2.23

GVKPIL

6.58

-1.94

Suntv

690.60

-1.81

Havells

420.40

-1.29

Market Statistics

 

 

 

BSE

NSE

Advances

1675

1064

Declines

505

420

 

Technical view: Nifty finds strong support around 8770 which was an earlier resistance while 8900 acts as strong resistance. Bank Nifty now finds support around 20500 while 20900 will act as resistance.


INDEX PERFORMANCE

 

 

Indices

Support

Resistanes

Sensex

8785

8933

Nifty

28345

28850

 

Trading ideas :PETRONET (Buy above Rs 401, for target of Rs 418, SL at Rs 390): Stock has broken out from a short term consolidation pattern which took 12 weeks to complete. The immediate resistance of Rs 396.5 was breached convincingly accompanied with impressive volumes. Momentum oscillators have also witnessed positive crossover which further adds confirmation to our positive stance.


Derivative Snippets: Markets surge higher as the index call option writers run for a cover, massive short covering was witnessed in Nifty 8800 to 9000 call options and Banknifty 20200 to 20700 call options.

 FIIs were net buyers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs. 8043 crores.


FII’s index future long/short ratio at 2.9x vs 3.1x. Heavy call option buying (short covering) to the tune of 15k contracts was observed.


Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were Idea Cellular up by 2.97%, BhartiAirtel up by 2.27%, GAIL India up by 1.81%, Tata Power up by 1.66% and TCS up by 1.51%.

On the flip side, Hindalco down by 1.50%, Tech Mahindra down by 1.06%, HDFC down by 0.99%, Bosch down by 0.99% and Yes Bank down by 0.87% were the top losers.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:  The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Telecom up by 1.91%, Consumer Durables up by 1.13%, Basic Materials up by 0.88%, Realty up by 0.78% and Utilities up by 0.72%, while FMCG down by 0.04% was the sole loser on BSE.

The top gainers on the Sensex were BhartiAirtel up by 2.30%, GAIL India up by 1.80%, Tata Steel up by 1.42%, TCS up by 1.41% and Bajaj Auto up by 1.14%.

 

 

 

On the global front: On the global front, Asian shares were trading mostly in green, with Tokyo shares erasing morning losses and Hong Kong equities resuming a rally. Japan’s exports rose in January at a slower pace than the previous month due to a decline in shipments to the US and the Lunar New Year holidays and as concerns about growing trade protectionism cast doubts over the outlook.

 

Global Signals:The Asian markets were trading mostly in green; KOSPI Index increased 0.53 points or 0.03% to 2,081.11, FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI increased 4.09 points or 0.24% to 1,711.77, Jakarta Composite increased 15.89 points or 0.3% to 5,366.82, Nikkei 225 increased 16.76 points or 0.09% to 19,251.38, Shanghai Composite increased 27.08 points or 0.85% to 3,229.15 and Hang Seng increased 81.32 points or 0.34% to 24,115.06.On the other hand, Taiwan Weighted decreased 25.33 points or 0.26% to 9,754.59.

 

WEEKLY NIFTY TRADING VIEW FOR THE WEEK FEB 20, 2016–FEB 26, 2016

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Events to watch this week

  • Upbeat US data fuel growth, inflation hopes
  • Yellen: Risky to wait too long to raise rates
  • Mnuchin confirmed as US Treasury Secretary
  • Greek bailout deadline in doubt

The Week ahead:

  • US markets are closed for President's Day on Monday, 20 February
  • China reports trade data on Tuesday, 21 February
  • Flash purchasing managers’ indices are released globally on Tuesday, 21 February
  • Eurozone consumer price data is reported on Wednesday, 22 February
  • UK Q4 gross domestic product are reported on Wednesday, 22 February
  • US existing home sales data are released on Wednesday, 22 February

For the week,Global equities continued their advance on increasing evidence of improved US economic growth and rebounding inflation. Major US indices again notched record highs during the week, though bond yields held steady. Despite the strong data, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell to 2.415% from 2.43% a week ago. Oil prices dipped, with West Texas Intermediate crude at $53.50 a barrel versus $54.10 last week and global Brent falling to $55.60 from $57.10. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), edged up to 12 from 10.9.

NIFTY- 8,821.70
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,607barrel
GOLD-Rs 29,355 gram
Rs/$-Rs 67.02

MARKET ROUND UP

Indian equity benchmark indices viz. the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty 50 index registered small gains in the week ended Friday, 17 February 2017 amid mixed global cues. However, the overall sentiment in the broader market was subdued during the week.

The Sensex rose 134.50 points or 0.47% to settle at 28,468.75. The Nifty advanced 28.15 points or 0.32% to settle at 8,821.70. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 0.33% and the BSE Small-Cap index declined 0.98%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

Key benchmark indices eked out small gains in what was a volatile first trading day of the week on Monday, 13 February 2017. The Sensex had risen 17.37 points or 0.06% to settle at 28,351.62, its highest closing level since 6 February 2017.

Key benchmark indices settled with small declines in what was a lacklustre session of trade on Tuesday, 14 February 2017. The Sensex fell 12.31 points or 0.04% to settle at 28,339.31, its lowest closing level since 10 February 2017.

Macro Economic Front:

On the Economic Front,India's industrial production declined 0.4% in December 2016 over December 2015, snapping strong 5.7% growth recorded in November 2016. The manufacturing sector's production declined 2% in December 2016, contributing to the overall decline in industrial production.

The all-India general consumer price index (CPI) inflation dipped to 3.17% in January 2017 compared with 3.41% in December 2016. The data was announced after market hours on Monday, 13 February 2017.

The monthly inflation data based on wholesale price index (WPI) rose 5.25% (provisional) for the month of January 2017 as compared to 3.39% (provisional) for December 2016 and minus 1.07% during January 2016. The data was announced during market hours on Tuesday, 14 February 2017.

India's exports rose 4.32% to $22.11 billion in January 2017 and imports rose 10.7% to $31.95 billion. The data was announced after market hours on Wednesday, 15 February 2017. The monthly trade deficit narrowed slightly to $9.8 billion.

Major Action &Announcement:

Tata Motors tumbled 11.13%. The company's consolidated net profit fell 96.22% to Rs 111.57 crore on 4.31% decline in total income to Rs 68708.48 crore in Q3 December 2016 over Q3 December 2015. The result was announced during market hours on Tuesday, 14 February 2017.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (Sun Pharma) rose 3.11%. The company's consolidated net profit fell 4.72% to Rs 1471.82 crore on 10.13% rise in total income to Rs 8034.81 crore in Q3 December 2016 over Q3 December 2015. The result was announced during market hours on Tuesday, 14 February 2017.

Dr Reddy's Laboratories (DRL) declined 2.01%. The company said it received an unfavorable ruling in a US court regarding a patent infringement case. The announcement was made during market hours on Thursday, 16 February 2017.

DRL announced that the United States District Court for the District of New Jersey issued its opinion regarding Helsinn Healthcare's patent infringement claims against the company's proposed palonosetron product, pursuant to a paper NDA under section 505(b)(2) of the Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act.

Cipla advanced 2.29%. The company announced that it has launched adult Hepatitis B vaccine in India. Under a co-exclusive agreement with Serum Institute of India (SII), Cipla will market the vaccine for adults while SII will market it for adults and children. The announcement was made during trading hours on Friday, 17 February 2017.

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) fell 4.37%. The company's consolidated net profit rose 25.82% to Rs 849.75 crore on 29.48% rise in total income to Rs 2429.56 crore in Q3 December 2016 over Q3 December 2015. The result was announced during market hours on Tuesday, 14 February 2017.

TCS wasup 0.48%. The company said that its board will meet on 20 February 2017 to consider buyback of equity shares. The announcement was made after trading hours on Wednesday, 15 February 2017.

Tata Steel was up 0.04%. The company said that the National Trade Union Steel Coordinating Committee (Steel Committee) in the UK announced that its members have voted to support the company's proposals, including the proposal to close the pension scheme in the UK to future accrual. The announcement was made after trading hours on Wednesday, 15 February 2017.

Global Front:

In Overseas Markets,Japan's economy slowed again in the final quarter of 2016, as feeble spending by consumers took the shine off a pickup in exports and business investment. Japan's real gross domestic product grew 1% on an annualized basis in the three months through December for the fourth consecutive quarter of expansion, the longest stretch of gains since 2013, according to Cabinet Office data released on Monday, 13 February 2017.

China's producer price inflation picked up more than expected in January to near six-year highs. China consumer inflation also rose more than expected, nearing a three-year high as fuel and food prices jumped, data showed on Tuesday, 14 February 2017.

In US, retail sales rose 0.4% in January, a faster pace than had been expected, while the consumer price index rose 0.6% in the month, the largest amount in four years, though this was largely due to a rebound in the price of gasoline.

Global Economic News:

US economy shows signs of strength
After a run of strong economic data from the United States, hopes intensified this week that the reflationary period underway since late 2016 would prove more durable than the four prior upturns during the current business cycle, which began in early 2009. January retail sales were a major bright spot, rising a better-than-expected 0.4%, while December sales were revised up 1% versus a previously reported 0.6% advance. Firmer consumer prices at both the headline and core level, buoyant manufacturing output and upbeat regional Fed manufacturing surveys—particularly the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index — which soared to a 33-year high — added to investor optimism. 

Fed’s Yellen reiterates case for rate hikes
After a string of strong economic reports, markets expect the US Federal Reserve to hike rates in the first half of 2017, perhaps as soon as next month’s meeting of the Fed’s rate-setting committee. In congressional testimony this week, Chair Janet Yellen said that it would be risky to wait too long to raise interest rates and that the committee would consider hiking rates in coming meetings. Yellen holds press conferences once per quarter, and the two rate hikes this cycle have both come at meetings that were followed by press briefings. Her next press conference is scheduled for 15 March, with another on 14 June.

Mnuchin confirmed as Treasury pick
US president Donald Trump’s pick for treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, was confirmed by the US Senate this week and sworn into office shortly thereafter. Tax reform is expected to be Mnuchin's early focus with Trump unveiling his tax reform package in the next few weeks.

Greek bailout lenders at loggerheads
The International Monetary Fund and eurozone finance ministers remain at odds over the direction of the Greek bailout process. The two sides hope to iron out a deal early next week to allow the IMF to release €7 billion in aid to Greece ahead of European elections, which kick off next month. The creditors hope to keep Greece from becoming a campaign issue in elections in the Netherlands in March and in France in April and May for fear that the matter could further fuel an anti-European Union populist backlash. IMF and Eurogroup finance ministers have been unable to reach agreement on the IMF’s proposal to grant Greece some level of debt relief. Without that relief, the fund says, Greece’s debt is unsustainable.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Comings and goings in Washington
It was an eventful week for appointees of President Trump. In addition to Mnuchin taking the helm at Treasury, the president accepted the resignation of his national security advisor, General Michael Flynn. Trump scrambled to nominate R. Alexander Acosta as labor secretary after fast food executive Andrew F. Puzder withdrew his nomination.

S&P 500 earnings on pace for back-to-back gains
With 75% of S&P 500 companies having reported (as of 15 February), aggregate earnings are up 5.2% year over year while revenues have grown 4.3%. According to Hedgeye Risk Management, if these trends hold up, the fourth quarter of 2016 will be the first time in two years that companies will have generated positive earnings for two straight quarters.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

 

GAIL

513.00

HDFC BANK

1450.00

INDUSINDBK

1364.30

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):

NOT YET

----

 

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

CADILA HEALTHCAR

23.06

IIFL HOLDINGS

13.52

AIA ENGINEERING

10.22

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

SOUTH INDIAN BAN

-13.04

INTELLECT DESIGN

-12.19

BANK OF BARODA

-11.73


Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:

Monday (20 Feb)
US Holiday Market Closed

Tuesday (21 Feb)
PMI Manufacturing Index

Wednesday (22 Feb)
Existing Home Sales

Thursday (23 Feb)
Jobless Claims

Friday (24 Feb)
Consumer Sentiment

Fundamental Pick of the week:

Derivative Ideas Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd For Target Rs. 980.00

 

After trading with bearish bias for over a week, GLENMARK posted decent recovery from day’s low on 16th February and settled near day’s high, indicating buyer’s interest at current levels. Early signs of recovery are also visible on the daily chart. Considering all, we recommend buying this stock.

Recommendation

Buy  Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Limited   @ 926-930 Stoploss 905 Target  980

Indian Market Outlook:

Markets rebounded swiftly today and gained over half a percent. The upbeat trade deficit figure aided a firm start which was supported by select index majors. Mostly sectoral indices traded in line with the benchmark and ended higher. Besides, recovery in the midcap and smallcap space added to the positivity. We feel the consolidation is not over yet and its range has slightly broadened now. A decisive move above 8850 in Nifty will trigger further up move else range bound bias will continue. Amidst all, stocks are witnessing moves on both sides so traders should focus more on trade management and maintain a balanced portfolio. .

*The Union Cabinet approved the merger of State Bank of India and its 5 associate banks - State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur (SBBJ), State Bank of Hyderabad (SBH), State Bank of Mysore (SBM), State Bank of Patiala (SBP) and State Bank of Travancore (SBT). The listed associate banks closed up 3-4.5%.

*Bharat Forge announced signing an agreement for a Joint Venture with Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI). Kalyani Strategic Systems (KSSL) and IAI signed the MoU during the Aero-India exhibition at Bangalore. Shares of Bharat Forge closed up 6%.

*Cadila Healthcare announced that the USFDA has inspected the company's Moraiya plant and did not issue observation (483) which meant that the plant met the manufacturing norms successfully. Shares closed up by 19.8%.

TECHNICAL VIEW:

S3

S2

S1

NIFTY

R1

R2

R3

8,690

8,745

8,775

8,821.70

8,877

8,933

8,969


Conclusion:


The NIFTY seems to be locked in a tussle spacing 8827-8715, that’s around a 115 points. Index may now look for an immediate technical trigger to break this deadlock. Some correction towards 8640-8580 levels may set in, if prices break the low @ 8715 mark. In the medium term, the SUPPORT zone now shifts upwards to 8537, the 3 week LOW; followed by 8330, that corresponds to 5 week’s LOW. On the other hand, If 8850 gets breached convincingly, upside to the July 2016 HIGH @ 8935 would be in contention.  

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