Oil jumped to a seven-year high, safe-havens rallied and U.S. stock futures dived on Tuesday as Europe’s eastern flank stood on the brink of war after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops into breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine.

Brent crude futures rose 1.6% to $96.94, just off their overnight seven year high. S&P 500 futures fell 1.5% and Nasdaq futures fell 2.2%. Asian stocks were also down over half a percent, while Japan’s Nikkei skidded sharply.

The Russian rouble briefly touched an 18-month low in early Asia trade on Tuesday, after Russia’s MOEX equity index had fallen 10.5% the day before.

Spot gold, in contrast, hit a new six-month top of $1,911.56. [GOL/]

Putin on Monday recognised two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent and ordered the Russian army to launch what Moscow called a peacekeeping operation into the area, upping the ante in a crisis that could unleash a major war.

A Reuters witness saw columns of military vehicles including tanks early Tuesday on the outskirts of Donetsk, the capital of one of two breakaway regions, and Putin signed treaties with leaders of the two breakaway regions giving Russia the right to build military bases.

Washington and European capitals condemned the move, vowing new sanctions. Ukraine’s foreign minister said he had been assured of a ”resolute and united” response from the European Union.

But it was not immediately clear whether the Russian military action would be regarded by the West as the start of a full-scale invasion.

Following Russia’s latest move ”we are much closer to military intervention, which of course is going to drive a lot of the risk off sentiment in the markets, said Carlos Casanova, senior Asia economist at UBP, adding the short term volatility in markets caused by both geopolitical factors and the U.S. Federal Reserve was ’relentless’.

Casanova said the consequences would be higher oil prices, an equity sell off, and people flocking to safe haven assets like the Japanese yen.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan lost 0.66% in early trade on Tuesday and Japan’s Nikkei tumbled 1.6%.

In currency markets, the safe-haven yen rose as much as 0.2% in Asia to a nearly three-week high of 114.50 per dollar, before paring its gains.

The euro fell 0.1% to a one-week low of $1.1296

”In these circumstances, risk metrics are the driving force,” said NAB head of foreign exchange strategy, Ray Attrill.

The nerves also drove U.S. Treasury yields lower, with benchmark 10-year Treasury yields diving as much as 5.5 basis points to 1.8715%. Bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes also eased and the chance of a 50-bp hike next month fell below 1-in-5.

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said on Monday that she will assess incoming economic data over the next three weeks in deciding whether a half percentage point interest rate rise is needed at the central bank’s next meeting in March.

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The government is likely to propose a formula to bring aviation turbine fuel (ATF) under the ambit of Goods and Services Tax (GST), CNBC TV18 reported on February 21.

The likely government proposal will be to allow 18 percent GST in addition  to VAT or excise rate, the news channel learnt from sources, adding that the formula would be introduced only if its acceptable to all the states.

The VAT or excise rate, under the formula, could vary from state to state, the report claimed.

"Globally also, in many countries such a formula of GST rate plus VAT/excise has been used in the case of ATF," a senior government official told CNBC TV18.

The proposal is expected to be tabled before the states and union territories at the next GST Council meeting, the news channel noted.

The Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) has "evaluated" the model for ATF's inclusion under GST, the government official claimed, adding, "The GST Council will be appraised with this global best practice model for them to take a final call."

The report comes days after ATF prices soared to record high levels across the country. The rates were increased by 5.2 percent on February 16 in line with a rise in international oil prices.

This is the fourth hike in jet fuel or ATF prices in less than two months following a spike in global oil prices but petrol and diesel prices remained unchanged for a record 103rd day in a row, coinciding with electioneering to elect new governments in states like Uttar Pradesh and Punjab.

ATF price was hiked by Rs 4,481.63 per kilolitre or 5.2 per cent to Rs 90,519.79 per kl in the national capital, according to a price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. This is the highest ever price touched by ATF.

The rate is higher than Rs 71,028.26 per kl reached in August 2008 when international crude oil prices touched USD 147 per barrel. Brent crude oil on Tuesday was trading at USD 93.87 per barrel.

This is the highest ever price touched by ATF. The increase in price will put pressure on the already strained balance sheets of airlines that are yet to resume full operations due to pandemic-related restrictions.

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Monsoon is expected to be normal, Skymet Weather said in its initial forecast on Monday, adding that a complete assessment would arrive in April.

La Nina, a pattern characterised by unusually low temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and linked to floods and drought, has fuelled the last two monsoon seasons. 

La Nina does not have a warming influence on global temperatures and is associated with strong monsoon and above average rains, and cool winter in India. But its effect on this monsoon will decline which may not lead to better than average or abundant rainfall, Skymet said. 

IndiGo parent InterGlobe Aviation share price slipped 3.5 percent to Rs 2,044.25 after cofounder and  non-executive non-independent director tendered his resignation from the board on Friday with immediate effect.

In a letter to the board, Rakesh Gangwal said that his "intention is to gradually reduce stake in InterGlobe over the next five plus years".

"I have been a long-term shareholder for more than 15 years and it's only natural to some day think about diversifying one's holdings," Gangwal added in his letter.

Read the full text of Rakesh Gangwal on his resignation from IndiGo board

Earlier this month, InterGlobe reported a surprise profit of Rs 129.79 crore in the December quarter for the first time after posting losses for seven consecutive quarters. The profit was buoyed by higher revenue and yields. 

IndiGo had reported a loss of Rs 621.80 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal.

Net revenue increased 89 percent to Rs 9,294.77 crore from Rs 4,909.98 crore a year ago. Passenger ticket revenues came in at Rs 8,073.10 crore, up 98.4%, while ancillary revenue stood at Rs 1141.70 crore, an increase of 41.3% compared to the year-ago quarter.

Catch all the market action on our live blog

At 09:44 hrs InterGlobe Aviation was quoting at Rs 2,059.20, down Rs 61.10 or 2.88 percent on the BSE.

The share touched a 52-week high of Rs 2,379 and a 52-week low of Rs 1,502.90 on 16 November, 2021 and 20 April, 2021, respectively.

Currently, it is trading 13.44 percent below its 52-week high and 37.02 percent above its 52-week low.

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Justin Bieber has a mild case of COVID-19, CNN reported on Sunday citing a representative for the Canadian singer.

CEO’s office:

CEO is floating in the air, eyes closed, an air of spiritual corporate governance on her face.

(Spiritual music in the background ): “Rig Yajur Sama…….Rig Yajur Sama……Rig Yajur Sama”

(Spiritual phone rings with callertune): @outlook.com

CEO opens eyes and settles down on her throne made of options and futures.

Her mind does a quick commodity exchange with her soul as she excitedly picks up the phone.

CEO: Oh my Holy Holiness. Your are the chairperson of my Spiritual Reserve. My spirit is lighter because of your qualitative easing of my soul. I don’t question the inflation in your salary because you have clearly risen above such concerns. In fact you have risen so high even the market regulator had to build 190 circular floors just to see you.

His Holy Holiness: My dear Spiritual Chitra Katha, as you know, I have no spiritual location.  So no one can accuse me of co-location. However, there are some people I need you to co-locate across the organizational structure. Because I am not liking their spiritual energy.

But I have been liking your spiritual energy in your last few Instagram uploads. Especially the ones where you sing “Spiritual exchanges are subject to regulatory risk. Please read the internal memos carefully before investigating”.

CEO: Oh great sage, oh clearing corporation of my unresolved emotions, your tri-vedic energy has helped me to discover myself in ways that even the forensic investigators could not. But I don’t like their spiritual energy. They just seem a little too earnest and young.

His Holy Holiness: I like how you guard your spiritual energy more fiercely than you guard the interests of investors. You have no conflict of interest. Because you have no interest in it. So where is the conflict?

CEO: Oh glittering gladiator of High Finance, oh sage of Omaha@outlook.com, I have received your instructions to open a new offshore swimsuit account in Seychelles. I have also received the KYK – Know Your Kanchan – form from your onshore spiritual presence here.

His Spiritually AAA+ rated highness: Well, you know I am a paramhansa, but as of now, a helicopter from Pawan Hans will have to do. Just remember, my spiritual self only travels first-class. Because not only can I materialize at will, I can even dematerialize without a demat account.

CEO: Then you will be especially pleased about our hand-picked independent director. In fact he is entirely independent of any direction. Especially on Twitter.

His ESG-compliant Sustainable Highness: That’s why I told him he must stick to TV. But I understand some of your depositions before the spiritual regulator are causing an HR problem in the company? I heard many employees are refusing to come back to office, saying their spiritual powers do not require them to have any such physical co-ordinates.

CEO:  This is a tricky problem indeed. Let us summon the spirit of our first Spiritual Guru and Poet, Mr Kavi Narain.

CEO on Spiritual Ouja board shaped like a bull: Mr Kavi Narain, this is your Spiritual Stock Exchange... we are looking for you.

Kavi Narain: I was the first CEO of this spiritual stock exchange. And I am pleased to see you have continued my wonderful legacy. Especially with the regulators.

CEO: Sir, I heard the market regulator has banned you from performing poetry in the markets for two years?

Kavi Narain: To be honest, performing stand-up comedy would have been more relevant for my career. But unfortunately that market segment was taken up by business news anchors….. (waits for laughs... leaves in awkward silence).

His Holy Unholiness: Look, you must understand, not everyone has undertaken the spiritual journey that we have. Especially with our bank accounts. After all, we set the standards of corporate governance for the companies that list their souls on our exchange. Just to see their name on a ticker tape.

CEO: I always wanted to see my name on a ticker tape. But I never thought I would go from tickers on business news channels to tickers on crime patrol.

His Credit Swap Defaultness: Even I wanted to be known as a spiritual guru. But I never thought I’d go from the Master of three vedas to an e-mail ID as evidence in a regulatory order. I guess it all depends on your outlook.com.

CEO: I think you are right. It is time to leave this spiritual world behind and move on to a higher realm..in the Ethereum. We will start the world’s first spiritual crypto exchange. Where souls can be exchanged on the blockchain. And their identity will be anonymous. Like buyers of electoral bonds.

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In a recent article, I had highlighted the key difference between India and many other major rich nations — excess household (HH) savings. Although the cumulative excess HH savings in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Eurozone, and Japan amounted to 10-20 percent of income as of Q3CY21, it was -2.8 percent of income in India, and -2 percent of income in Indonesia (as of Q2CY21). This one divergence explains a large part of the likely different economic outcomes in India vis-à-vis advanced economies.

As a corollary to this evidence, it is also important to note that although personal disposable income (PDI, or household income) in most advanced nations has witnessed huge spurt since early CY20, it has remained weak in India. In short, the household financial position in India is weaker not only compared to the pre-COVID-19 trends, but also when compared to most rich nations. There is no official monthly/quarterly data on PDI in India, and the annual (first revised estimate) data comes with a lag of 10 months.

In order to bridge this gap, there are four indicators that one can analyse to understand the likely growth trends in PDI in India: rural agricultural and non-agricultural wages, salaries and wage bill of state governments, MGNREG wages, and employee costs of listed companies. The first three data indicators are available on a monthly basis, and the listed companies’ data is available on a quarterly basis. All data is available up to December, with data on MGNREGA wages available till up to January.

More than 70 percent of India’s workforce is engaged in the rural economy, and thus, rural wages published by the labour bureau on a monthly basis is probably the most comprehensive, and important indicators of PDI growth trends in the country. After declining 3.5 percent each in FY20, agricultural and non-agricultural rural wages grew 0.5 percent each in FY21. In the first nine months of FY22 (as of December ’21), while real agricultural wages grew by just 1.6 percent YoY, real non-agricultural rural wages declined 1.2 percent YoY during the period. According to the NABARD’s All India Rural Financial Inclusion Survey 2016-17, less than a quarter of rural household income was derived from the agricultural activity.

Further, state governments are a huge employer, with total employment estimated at about 200 million. Aggregate analysis of 22 states suggests that their salary and wage bill grew 11.2 percent YoY in 9MFY22, on a low base of 1.5 percent in FY21, implying an average growth of 6.3 percent in two years — compared to 11.1 percent average growth in the pre-COVID-19 period (FY18-FY20).

Besides, MGNREG was extremely useful in providing work to the population, who returned to their homes in the rural areas last year. Consequently, 112 million individuals worked under MGNREG in FY21, up more than 40 percent from 76-79 million in the pre-COVID-19 period. As of February 15, more than 99 million have worked under MGNREG. Nevertheless, the average daily wages per person increased by just 4 percent to Rs 209 in FY22 as compared to Rs 179 in FY19, implying an average nominal growth of just ~5 percent, similar to that in the pre-COVID-19 period. It also means that the real growth was negligible in MGNREG wages.

Finally, while rural wages and states are large employers, the wage levels in the listed companies are much higher. Employee cost of listed companies (~2,800 companies) increased by 13 percent YoY in 1HFY22, marking the highest growth in almost three years (Although the data is still flowing in, there appear to be similar growth in 3QFY22 as well).

Higher wage bill seems to be affecting two sectors in particular — IT companies and banks. These two sectors have performed extraordinarily during the past 18 months, and could be simply tagged the strongest at this time.

A company-wise analysis of 13 IT companies and seven banks reveals that while employee costs have risen ~20 percent YoY in 9MFY22 in both the sectors, almost the entire increase in IT companies and more than four-fifths of the increase in banks is due to higher employment, rather than higher wages. If so, this is somewhat similar to MGNREG programme where higher employment led to higher spending. It is, thus, misleading to attribute it to higher wage inflation (wage per employee) in India.

Overall, it is clear that there is no high wage growth in India, which is also in stark contrast to rich nations. Consequently, it is highly unlikely to witness demand-led inflation in India, unlike advanced economies, wherein massive fiscal stimulus made it exceptionally good for the household sector. Therefore, the policy responses will also be different in India vis-à-vis advanced nations.

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The family  of Delhi-based businessman Anant Agarwal has bought a bungalow in South Delhi’s West End area for Rs 82.5 crore, documents accessed by Zapkey.com showed.

The house is spread across an area of 1,009.88 square metres. The deal was registered on February 9, 2022, the documents showed.

There was no response from the businessman. The property has been bought in his mother's (Shobha Aggarwal) name.

Spike in deals

In Delhi, several bungalow transactions have been finalised of late in Delhi’s Lutyens Zone and other luxury markets such as West End and Vasant Vihar.

On February 2, a bungalow spread over 1,205 square metres (12,970 sq. feet) in the West End area was sold for Rs 91.5 crore, according to documents shared by Zapkey.com. The property was bought by Vikram Ahuja of Ahuja Radios, the documents showed. Ahuja did not respond to queries from Moneycontrol.

A property in Panchsheel Park, spread over 1,200 sq. yards, was sold to a Kolkata-based buyer for Rs 85 crore. Another property in Vasant Vihar was picked up by a local developer for about Rs 60 crore, while a bungalow with two units in Jor Bagh, located on a 600 sq. yard plot, was sold to two buyers for about Rs 28 crore each, local brokers said.

Last year, Anil Gupta, promoter of KEI Industries, a housing wire and cable maker, bought a property spread across 2,000 square yards in Delhi’s posh Shanti Niketan area for Rs 140 crore. The sale deed was executed on October 8, 2021.

In 2021, the owner of a leading electronics contract manufacturer bought a house in New Delhi’s Lutyens bungalow zone for Rs 170 crore, in what is believed to be the priciest residential transaction in the city after the lockdown. LBZ is located in central Delhi and consists mainly of buildings to house government offices and residences.

Soon after India’s biggest online-education startup Byju’s signed a deal to acquire tutorial chain Aakash Educational Services for $1 billion in April, the latter’s founder JC Chaudhary, bought a 2,000 square yard property in south Delhi’s Vasant Vihar area for over Rs 100 crore.

He later also purchased a 5-acre farmhouse in south Bijwasan area for around Rs 96 crore.

Preference for independent properties

“High Networth families are now preferring to purchase independent bungalows or plots in South Delhi compared to builder floors, as the former provides them independent ownership, privacy, and allows them control over construction timelines and quality. They are increasingly roping in credible architects to build to their specifications, rather than going with developers,” said Amit Goyal, CEO of India Sotheby’s International Realty.

Developers of high-value independent floors in some South Delhi markets have been avoiding registration under the RERA Act, leading to violations. The developers claim that they have been adhering to Section 3(2) (a) of RERA, which provides for exemption from registration if the land proposed to be developed is less than 500 sq. metres in size or less than eight apartments are proposed to be developed on the property.

Zombie firms, or perpetually loss-making companies, absorbed about 10 percent of the total bank credit extended to all firms in the Indian economy, said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its monthly Bulletin on February 16.

Also, such firms are estimated to account for about 10 percent of the total debt of the non-financial corporate sector, the Bulletin said. The RBI publishes the bulletin every month capturing trends in the economy and the financial sector.

In general, these firms are found to be highly leveraged, generate a negative return on assets over successive years and borrow more to survive rather than undertake new investment, the Bulletin said.

“Their average cost of funds is more sensitive to monetary policy shocks. Their borrowings from banks, however, often do not give rise to higher real investment activity, unlike non-zombies,” the RBI Bulletin said.

The comments in the Bulletin are significant considering the huge  bad loan issue faced by Indian banks, mainly the state-run banks. Indian banks were forced to a clean up of their balance sheets in 2015 when the RBI initiated an asset quality review.

Following this, banks have managed to resolve a large chunk of bad loans either by pushing to insolvency courts or selling to asset reconstruction companies at a discount.

The sensitivity of investment activity to borrowings from banks is estimated to be lower for zombies, which indicates that they use borrowed resources more for survival than for undertaking new investment, dampening the effectiveness of monetary policy at the margin, said the RBI Bulletin.

During surplus liquidity conditions, however, credit flows to zombies remain relatively subdued than flows to non-zombies, implying that pro-growth counter-cyclical monetary policy does not hinder the creative destruction process, said RBI Bulletin.

This validates that accommodative monetary policy is effective overall in lowering the cost of funds, stimulating higher flow of credit and raising new investment, but it gets dampened at the margin by zombies who tend to use borrowed resources, including long-term bank loans, less for new investment and more for survival, the Bulletin said.

Importantly, during surplus liquidity conditions, which often accompany accommodative phases of monetary policy, credit flows to zombies remain weaker than flows to non-zombies, the Bulletin said. This could largely be due to the salubrious impact of risk-based supervision and the insolvency and bankruptcy regime that may no longer support evergreening of zombies, it said.

Further, with further improvement in resource allocation through the banking system, however, there is scope for enhancing the effectiveness of countercyclical monetary policy, the Bulletin said.