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Auto Sector -Research Report-Sharetipsnfo

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Sector Overview:

The big getting bigger – category leaders reinforce their dominance

* Demonetization puts brakes on growth of passenger cars and motorcycles.

* Value continues to migrate toward scooters and SUVs, driven by changing customer preferences.

* Uptrading in 2Ws/4Ws continues, as reflected in the increasing share of premium motorcycles and PVs priced more than ~INR800k.

* Category leaders getting stronger as competition hurts second/third ranked players more.

We took a deep dive into granular data on the Indian 2W/PV industry, observing continuance of bigger trends in FY17, along with increased dominance of category leaders in both 2W and 4Ws. While demonetization had stalled a revival, there are early signs of a 2W export market recovery. Key highlights:


Sector Growth Outlook:

Demonetization puts brakes on recovery, especially of 2Ws

Demonetization had stalled the recovery in the auto sector, primarily impacting the 2W segment due to its higher exposure to the rural market and lower financing penetration. Between November 2016 and March 2017, while PV volume growth slowed to 6% (v/s +11% over Apr-Oct 2016), 2W volumes fell 6% (v/s +16% over Apr- Oct 2016). However, we note that normalcy has been restored in PVs (volumes up ~10% in March 2017) and 2Ws have recovered to record flat YoY growth.



Value migration toward scooters/SUVs continues

The structural trend of customers preferring scooters in 2Ws and SUVs in 4Ws continued in FY17. Scooters’ share increased to ~31.8% of 2W volumes (+120bp YoY). Similarly, SUVs continued to grow faster than the PV industry (32% growth in UVs v/s +9.2% in domestic PVs), increasing its share to 24.8% of domestic PVs (+420bp YoY).

Premiumization continues in both 2Ws/4Ws

The trend of premiumization continued in both 2Ws and 4Ws, with customers upgrading to relatively premium products. In 2Ws, motorcycles >150cc grew by 22%, driving up the share of premium 2Ws by 190bp to 15.4% of domestic 2W volumes. In PVs, volumes of vehicles priced INR800k & above grew ~22% YoY, translating into a higher share of products priced INR800k & above to 41% (+100bp).

Investment Rationals:

The big getting bigger: Category leaders gaining further dominance

Category leaders further strengthened their dominance in FY17, despite intensifying competition . In the executive segment, HMCL’s market share improved to 72% (v/s 61% three years back), despite the entry of TVS Victor. In scooters, HMSI’s market share expanded to ~57% (+170bp YoY), at expense of HMCL (-220bp) and TVS (- 60bp). In PVs, MSIL gained market share for the fifth consecutive year (since Manesar issue), now commanding ~47.4% share of the domestic PV industry.

New launches drive PV industry growth

FY17 domestic PV volumes grew 9.2% to 3.05m units, driven by ~30% growth in UVs and ~4% in cars. New products (including ramp-up of last year’s launches) drove entire growth, with 185% share of incremental volumes. The key volume drivers were Brezza, Baleno, Tiago, Kwid and Ignis.

2W exports showing signs of recovery; other players eating into market share of Bajaj Auto

After a prolonged period of weakness since 2HFY16, 2W exports are showing signs of recovery with ~12.5% growth in 4QFY17 (v/s -6% in FY17). With all the relevant players focusing on exports, the share of Bajaj Auto has reduced 660bp to ~52% of 2W exports (motorcycle export share shrunk by 580bp to 60%). HMSI gained the most, with a 400bp increase in exports share to ~12%.



Valuation and view

We prefer 4Ws over 2Ws/CVs due to stronger volume growth and a stable competitive environment. Our top picks are Tata Motors, Maruti Suzuki and Amara Raja. We also believe that MM is an attractive play on a rural market recovery.


Global indices consolidate as gold rises with North Korean missile test, while US data indicates Federal Reserve on track to raise rates in June.

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Indian Indices: Asian indices opened mildly with losses as North Korea conducting missile test over the weekend witnessed sentiment turn weak. This even as US data indicates the Federal Reserve would raise rates in June, which has seen the bond yields rise to over 2.42% on the US 10 year bond. This week should see some caution initially with any dip being a chance to buy as the global bull market remains intact.

Nifty hit 9450 and reacted sharply during midsession to close around 9400 with foreign buying being matched by local selling. Banks both Private and PSU bore the brunt of selling while Auto, Realty and select IT saw fresh buying. For today expect mixed reaction on the index while stock/sector outperformance may continue as local profit booking gathers momentum.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 30317.57, up by 129.42 points or 0.43% after trading in a range of 30273.62 and 30357.96. There were 22 stocks advancing against 8 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 1.03%, while Small cap index was up by 0.74%.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 9442.25, up by 41.35 points or 0.44% after trading in a range of 9423.10 and 9445.35. There were 34 stocks advancing against 17 stocks declining on the index.




Group ATopGainers




Price (Rs)

% chg




Net Work18









Group ATopLosers




























Technical view: Nifty found strong support around 9372, which was Friday's low and will act as initial support on the downside while 9450 will act as resistance on the upside. Bank Nifty also finds strong support around 22550 while 22800 will now act as resistance on the upside.


MothersonSumi (BUY Above 415 with Stop Loss at 407 for Target of 430): The stock has been in a solid uptrend for the past five months. On analysing the daily chart, Motherson was stuck in a narrow trading range for the past two weeks; however, the stock has finally broken out from this gestation period and has given a continuation pattern breakout. The price outburst has been accompanied with increase in volumes, which further accentuates out bullish stance on the stock.

Derivative Snippets

Infosys has deferred salary hikes for employees to July and even later in case of senior executives as the Indian tech industry struggles to cope with uncertain environment and visa-related issues in key markets like the US.

In the last trading session, markets closed on a negative note dragged by banking stocks. Nifty ATM/OTM call and put option strikes saw short selling, indicating of a trading range between 9300-9500. Bank Nifty 23000 CE saw some unwinding of long positions, making 23000 levels as an important resistance for the index.

FIIs were net buyers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs 842 Cr.FIIs index future long short ratio at 2 x v/s 2.3x.


Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were Hindalco up by 3.82%, Tata Steel up by 2.61%, Dr. Reddy’s Lab up by 2.32%, Ultratech Cement up by 1.92% and Kotak Mahindra Bank up by 1.90%. On the flip side, Infosys down by 1.47%, BhartiInfratel down by 1.45%, AurobindoPharma down by 0.99%, Eicher Motors down by 0.66% and Wipro down by 0.60% were the top losers.


Top Sectoral& Stock Screening: The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Metal up by 1.79%, Basic Materials up by 1.65%, Realty up by 1.28%, Bankex up by 0.94% and Utilities up by 0.84%, while Consumer Durables down by 1.02%, Telecom down by 0.85%, IT down by 0.70% and TECK down by 0.66% were the losing indices on BSE.



On the global front: On the global front, Asian shares were trading mostly in green, despite headwinds from a weekend missile test by North Korea and concerns over further spread of ransomwarecyberattacks globally. China’s factory output and fixed asset investment growth cooled more than expected in April, adding to signs that momentum in the world’s second-biggest economy is slowing from a strong start in the first quarter.


Global Signals:The Asian markets were trading mostly in green; KOSPI Index increased 1.89 points or 0.08% to 2,287.91, Shanghai Composite increased 7.84 points or 0.25% to 3,091.35, Taiwan Weighted increased 35.68 points or 0.36% to 10,022.50 and Hang Seng increased 149.17 points or 0.59% to 25,305.51.On the other hand, Nikkei 225 decreased 34.46 points or 0.17% to 19,849.44, Jakarta Composite decreased 15.74 points or 0.28% to 5,659.47 and FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI decreased 2.2 points or 0.12% to 1,773.67.


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