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Indian Pharma Sector-Research Report-Sharetipsinfo

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Indian Pharma Market remains sluggish; focus now shifts to GST impact

* The Indian Pharma Market’s (IPM) growth remained subdued in May’17, with the overall growth rate at 7%. We attribute the ongoing slowdown partly due to the continuing government intervention in the sector.

* The key reasons for the poor sector growth has been the declining price growth and softer volume growth. Declining price growth is attributed to the crackdown on FDCs (Fixed Dosage Combinations) where companies had greater leeway in pricing.

* Weak volume growth in the past has been a function of anemic economic activity. We believe some of the recent tepid volume trend may also be due to demonetization.

* The past 3 years’ data clearly shows that price growth has declined in the Indian market since early CY16 and is now the lowest for nearly 18 months. This despite the WPI index (on which price revisions are indexed) rising over the same period. We believe that the weakness in price growth seems to have coincided with the government’s unsuccessful crackdown on FDCs, which constitute c45% of the IPM by value. While the move was stayed by courts, our discussions with industry players clearly indicate that most companies are now trying to move away from the lucrative FDC-led growth model. We believe this has had a significant impact on the overall price growth in the sector.

* Surprisingly, volume growth has also been sluggish. Overall volume growth, which averaged well over 5-5.5% in CY16, is well below 3% in YTD CY17. Weak volume growth usually is accompanied by either muted economic growth or poor underlying wage growth. The only data shoring up the overall IPM seems to be NI growth, which though trending downward, is still healthy at c5%. We have detailed the impact on continuing govt. led crackdown impacting sector growth in our note titled Healthcare industry in government crosshairs dated 5th May 2017.

* We believe that the street would focus on the extent of disturbance caused by the impending GST implementation and its impact on the industry growth. This would last only for a quarter, but post that we expect focus to return to whether IPM growth can revert to mid-teens, which given the above data appears difficult. We believe that in the medium term, the overall IPM growth would be sluggish for most companies.

* May 2017: Domestic pharma market grew by 7% (as per IMS)

* IPM reported sales of Rs97.6bn in May’17, a growth of 7% against 6% in Apr’17.

US FDA shows it has a bark and a bite

* New US FDA commissioner acts on his promise to limit access to opioid substances by requesting Endo Pharma to withdraw opioid brand Opana ER from the market

* The new regime at FDA had specifically highlighted abuse of opioid medicines and faster generic approval timelines with lower backlogs as key targets for the agency

* Indian generic industry has limited exposure to Opioids space but with the agency showing that it is serious about pursuing its agenda, should be cause for concern for the entire generic industry from an increasing competitiveness perspective.



The US FDA last week has asked Endo Pharma (ENDO) to withdraw its opioid painkiller Opana ER (oxymorphone hydrochloride) from the market on the grounds that risks from the product far outweigh its benefits (Link here). Opioid addiction is a public healthcare crises in USA where by painkiller/controlled substances are often misused for addiction. To put this in context, in India similar reasons have been expounded by the government in order to restrict or ban (unsuccessfully) certain codeine based syrups.

* While the Indian generic companies has limited exposure to Opioid business (largely with SUNP and CDH), the development is still very important from the perspective of the US FDA getting more serious on the issues it has highlighted to resolve. The new US FDA commissioner Scott Gotlieb has been quite vocal on two specific issues 1). To limit or restrict access to Opioid drugs in order to contain the opioid epidemic plaguing US healthcare system & 2).to get the FDA to step up the pace of generic approvals including streamlining the approval process to allow ANDA filings to jump queues, prioritize ANDA applications where drug costs are high, eliminate within a year the backlog of 2640 generic drug applications etc. We have written extensively on this earlier in our note titled Radical moves by new US FDA head for shorter generic timelines dated June 7, 2017.

* While ENDO likely to explore legal options in order to continue the Opana franchise, the FDA acting against Endo shows its strong intent to pursue the objectives set out under the new regime at the agency. Note that this is the first time that FDA has taken steps to remove a currently marketed opioid product from the market place.


Have a Nice Day  !!

US stocks hit new highs even as Trump reforms see little progress, while oil hits fresh 6 month low. Globally this week to see decision on Brexit and Trump legislation-could be decisive for market trend going forward.

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Major headlines:

·         Trade partners worried over cash flow in run up to GST

·         Asia stocks shake off Wall Street blues, sterling steady before Brexit talks

·         India to allow late filling in first two months of GST


Indian Indices: Asian markets opened in the green led by the Japanese 'Nikkei", which traded above 20000 as the weaker ‘Yen’ aided gains. With important decisions like Brexit and Trump legislation, this week could be decisive in marking the market trend for the next few weeks and months.

Nifty saw weakness creep in the second half as Pharma, IT and Metals counters dragged the Nifty lower. This week could see Nifty break the small range it has been in for over 3 weeks as global and local cues emanate a decisive trend. For today expect Financials, Banks and Auto stocks to see buying while Pharma and IT to remain under pressure.  

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 31184.44, up by 128.04 points or 0.41% after trading in a range of 31163.35 and 31247.69. There were 20 stocks advancing against 10 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index gained 0.08%, while Small cap index was up by 0.11%.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 9618.30, up by 30.25 points or 0.32% after trading in a range of 9618.25 and 9638.75. There were 32 stocks advancing against 19 stocks declining on the index.




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Technical view: Nifty is range bound between 9560-9660 and this week should see breakdown or breakout of the range. Bank Nifty also finds support around 23300 while 23750 acts as resistance, either side breakdown/out will see further direction.


COLPAL (BUY Above 1096 with Stop Loss at 1077.5 for Target of 1133): The stock has been consolidating for over seven trading sessions and has finally broken out from a Flag Pattern on the daily charts. The price outburst has been accompanied with credible volumes. Other oscillators also indicate that the current momentum is here to stay.


India’s forex reserves slipped USD11.5mn, to stand at USD381.156bn in the week to June 9. In the previous week, they had risen USD2.4bn to touch a record-high of USD381.167bn. Gold reserves remained unchanged at USD20.095bn. (BL)

The Department of Telecommunications (DoT) has expressed its inability to meet its revenue target of Rs473.05bn for FY18 and has asked the finance ministry to revise the projection to Rs295.24bn almost a 40% fall. (BS)

Corporate India's mergers and acquisition deals stood at USD1.89bn in May, taking the year to date tally to USD35.44bn. (BL)


Net income tax collection till June 15 grew at a healthy 26.2% to Rs1.01trn from across the country as of June 15 this fiscal from Rs 800.75bn in the year ago period.

Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were Adani Ports up by 1.98%, BhartiInfratel up by 1.88%, Reliance Industries up by 1.44%, Tata Steel up by 1.31% and TCS up by 1.27%. On the flip side, Cipla down by 1.43%, AurobindoPharma down by 1.24%, Yes Bank down by 1.17%, Lupin down by 1.11% and Tata Motors down by 1.02% were the top losers.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Energy up by 0.81%, FMCG up by 0.67%, Metal up by 0.60%, Telecom up by 0.57% and Consumer Durables up by 0.54%, while Realty down by 0.94% and Healthcare was down by 0.61% were the only losing indices on BSE.



On the global front: On the global front, Asian markets were trading mostly in green at this point of time, as traders took some comfort with a member of the US president’s legal team stating that President Donald Trump isn’t under investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller. The US markets ended modestly in red in the last session on another round of downbeat economic data.


Global Signals:Asian markets were trading mostly in green; KOSPI Index gained 7.75 points or 0.33% to 2,369.58, Jakarta Composite rose 13.49 points or 0.24% to 5,737.13, Shanghai Composite increased 20.61 points or 0.66% to 3,143.77, Taiwan Weighted surged 85.04 points or 0.84% to 10,241.77, Nikkei 225 added 129.58 points or 0.65% to 20,072.84 and Hang Seng was up by 241.53 points or 0.94% to 25,868.02.

On the flip side, FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI was down by 2.72 points or 0.15% to 1,788.59.


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