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Topic :- Share Market Closing Note

Equity benchmarks ended higher for third consecutive session as investors await Federal Reserve policy decision and exit poll on Gujarat assembly elections.

The 30-share BSE Sensex was up 205.49 points at 33,455.79 and the 50-share NSE Nifty gained 56.60 points at 10,322.30.

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Topic :- Time:3.05 PM

Nifty spot is trading at 10320. If it manages to close above 10300 level then further more upmove is expected in the market in coming trading sessions and if it closes below above mentioned level then some sluggish movement is expected. Avoid open sell positions for tomorrow.

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Topic :- Time:2.40 PM

COPPER Trading View:

COPPER is trading at 426.60. if it holds above 424.50 level then expect some quick upmove in it and if it breaks and trade below 424.60-424 levels then copper is likely to decline further. 

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Topic :- Time:1.55 PM

Just In:

Rs 40,000-crore development projects in limbo in Andhra.

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Topic :- Time:1.40 PM

SILVER Trading View:

SILVER is trading at 37070. It will find its immediate support at 36850. If it manages to hold above it then expect some quick upmove in it and it is likely to test 37470 level quite soon. Buy on every decline till it holds above 36850 is recommended in it.

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Topic :- Time:1.00 PM

Nifty spot is trading at 10294. If it manages to trade and sustain above 10320 level then expect some quick upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 10260 level then some softness can follow in the market.

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Topic :- Time:12.30 PM

CRUDEOIL Trading View:

CRUDEOIL is trading at 3683. If it manages to trade and sustain above 3685 level then expect some quick upmove in it and is likely to test 3720 level quite soon and if it breaks and trade below 3670 level then some softness can be seen in it.

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Topic :- Time:12.20 PM

Just In:

RBI - To Permit Overseas Branches Of Indian Banks To Refinance Ecbs Of Aaa Rated Corporates As Well As Navratna, Maharatna Psus, By Raising Fresh Ecbs.

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Topic :- Time:12.20 PM

Nifty is trading flat and is not showing any major movement. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 10300 level then expect some quick upmove and if it breaks and trade below 10270 level then some softness can be seen in the Nifty.

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Topic :- Time:11.30 AM

News Wrap up:

1. Sensex up 150 pts, Nifty regains 10,300; Airtel top gainer

2. Fresh round of finger-pointing looms over Infosys 

3. Nov inflation likely exceeded RBIs 4 pc target: Poll

4. Railways revenue likely to rise 10% to Rs 1.8 lakh crore

5. Reliance retail plans to expand B2B play

6. Modis famous Gujarat model is facing a serious existential crisis

7. Mukesh Ambani has driven 45% of India Incs capex since FY14

8. Unitech shares rise 20% as NCLT allows govt to appoint 10 directors

9. 5 yrs after Food Security Act, poor Indians to get millets at Rs 1/kg

10. UltraTech Cement gains on board nod for expansion, increase in FII limit.

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Topic :- Time:11.00 AM

After positive opening nifty is trading flat. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 10320 level then expect some quick upmove and if it breaks and trade below 10250 level then some softness can be seen in the Nifty.

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Topic :- Nifty Opening Note

Indian Stock Market Trading  View For 11 Dec,2017:

Upcoming week is expected to be a volatile week with lot of swings. Good stock specific movement expected overall.

Nifty to trade volatile and is likely to follow global cues.

Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 10290 level then expect some upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 10220 level then some softness can be seen in the Nifty. Please note this is just opening view and should not be considered as the view for the whole day.

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Global investment bank Nomura has predicted India's economy to register a 7.5 per cent growth rate in 2018, saying it is on the cusp of a cyclical recovery.

India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth bottomed-out in the second quarter of 2017 at 5.7 per cent year-on-year, rising to 6.3 per cent in the third quarter, it said.

It has forecast 6.7 per cent in the fourth quarter and a full-year growth of 6.2 per cent this year, rising to 7.5 per cent in 2018, it said.

"We remain bullish on India's macroeconomic outlook," Nomura said in its Asian economic outlook 2018.

The Indian economy is on the cusp of a cyclical recovery and the government has continued to implement structural reforms and prudent macro policies, the tangible benefits of which may be harder to pinpoint right now, but over time will be positive for growth, it said in the report.

Higher crude oil prices and state election results are the main risks, it said.

Given the base effects, Nomura expects the growth in the first half of 2018 to be at 7.8 per cent, higher than the 7.1 per cent of the second half of 2017.

"Further out, we expect a growth of 7.3 per cent in 2019 – a solid print, aided by manufacturing and private services on the supply side and investment and private consumption on the demand side," the report said.

It listed out factors supporting a strong growth.

It would be the normalisation of Goods and Services Tax- related supply disruptions; the positive effects of bank recapitalisation, a positive remonetisation impulse and a positive fiscal impulse.

The GST council was addressing the supply disruption concerns, it said.

The council has raised the eligibility limit under the composition scheme, extended the dates for filing returns, disbursed pending refunds, allowed duty-free sourcing of materials for export until March 2018 and lowered GST rates.

As a result, Nomura said it expected small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to ramp up production, exporters to benefit from the stronger global export upcycle, import substitution to reverse and growth to jumpstart.

"2018 should be 2017 in reverse," it pointed out.

The government's comprehensive recapitalisation plan (recap) for public sector banks (PSBs) worth Rs 2.11 trillion (1.3 per cent of the GDP) in financial year 2018 (year ending March 2018) and financial year 2019 should enable the process of balance-sheet deleveraging.

The resolution of non-performing assets (NPAs) was slow as a lack of capital dissuaded public sector banks from writing off bad loans.

But as these are now being written off, firms' excess leverage should decline, setting the stage for a capex revival over time, according to the report.

Additionally, Nomura estimates that Rs 700-750 billion of the recap package will be available as growth capital, which should enable banks to extend additional loans worth 7.3 to 8.3 per cent of outstanding credit (assuming a leverage ratio of 8-9x).

This should ensure sufficient funding for borrowers with no leverage (consumers), where reforms are ongoing (public capex projects) and ensure it is not denied to those in need (SMEs), it said.

The reflationary effects of remonetisation are yet to be seen.

It estimates that real M1 money supply growth will rebound from a contraction of 5.3 per cent year-on-year for the 12-month period ending September 2017 to growth of 13.2 per cent for the year ending September 2018.

Changes in real M1 growth lead changes in real non- agriculture GDP growth by around one to two quarters as it captures transaction demand for money.

Hence, the expected jump in real M1 money supply should boost non-agriculture GDP growth, especially in the first half of 2018.

"We expect cash-intensive sectors such as manufacturing, construction, real estate, trade, transport, hotels and communications to benefit most," Nomura added.

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India's retail inflation likely breached the central bank's 4.0 percent medium-term target in November after unseasonably heavy rains sent food prices soaring, a Reuters poll showed.

In the poll of more than 30 economists, annual consumer inflation, due to be released on Dec. 12 at 1200 GMT, was seen surging to a 13-month high of 4.20 percent in November from October's 3.58 percent.

The higher inflation rate is unlikely to push the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to change its key rate any time soon, economists in the poll said.

November's heavy rains "created lots of damage" for perishable fruit and vegetable crops, said Rupa Rege Nitsure, group chief economist at Larsen & Toubro. "We have seen that translated into price rises for onions, tomatoes and other perishable commodities".

Increased house rent allowances for government employees and rising crude oil prices added to inflationary pressures alongside higher raw material costs due to the Goods and Services Tax (GST) rollout, she said.

Wholesale prices are expected to have risen 3.78 percent last month from a year earlier, compared to a 3.59 percent rise in October.

NEUTRAL STANCE

At its Dec. 6 policy meeting, the central bank raised its inflation projection by 10 basis points to between 4.3 and 4.7 percent for the six months ending in March. It kept interest rates steady and stressed a neutral policy stance.

The RBI cut rates by 200 basis points from January 2015 until August this year while food and energy prices were down. It is likely to keep them unchanged through the end of 2018, according to a separate Reuters poll.

"Interest rates will remain stable for some time before they (the RBI) start hiking them because industrial growth is still weak," Nitsure said. "Recovery is happening in a few sectors but it has not spread to all sectors and private investment sentiment also remains low."

Industrial output growth eased to 3.0 percent in October from September's 3.8 percent, as demand continued to suffer from disruption caused by the new national sales tax as well as last year's currency clampdown that wiped out over 85 percent of the cash in circulation.

But halting a five-quarter slide, India's economic growth rebounded in the three months ending in September with businesses starting to overcome troubles from implementation of the new tax.

"We still have some output gap but it's not as bad as it used to be a couple of quarters back. It will not make any sense for the RBI to just react to the (inflation) number. They also have to look at other factors," said Arun Singh, lead economist at Dun & Bradstreet India in Mumbai.

The poll also showed India's trade deficit likely narrowed to $13.75 billion last month from October's near three-year high of $14.02 billion.