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Rupee recovers from record lows to end 7 paise higher at 77.47 against dollar

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After opening lower at 77.67, the local unit plunged further to its all-time intra-day low of 77.79 due to a spike in crude oil prices and disappointing macroeconomic data.Rupee recovers from record lows to end 7 paise higher at 77.47 against  dollar

The rupee on Tuesday recovered from its all-time intra day low of 77.79 to close higher by 7 paise on a stellar rally in domestic stock markets.

After opening lower at 77.67, the local unit plunged further to its all-time intra-day low of 77.79 due to a spike in crude oil prices and disappointing macroeconomic data.

However, a strong rally in domestic equities helped the rupee rebound and close at 77.48 (provisional), showing net gains of 7 paise over the last close of 77.55. The forex market was closed on Monday on the account of Buddha Purnima.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.41 per cent to 103.75.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, surged 0.74 per cent to USD 115.09 per barrel.

''The Indian rupee depreciated on Tuesday on a surge in crude oil prices and disappointing macroeconomic data. However, soft tone in the US Dollar and risk-on sentiments in global markets have cushioned the downside,'' said Praveen Singh, AVP- Fundamental currencies and Commodities analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Wholesale price-based inflation soared to a record high of 15.08 per cent in April mainly on account of spiralling prices of food, fuel and other commodities, which may prompt the Reserve Bank to hike interest rates in upcoming monetary policy review next month.

Dollar declined on positive undertone in the risk assets and weak economic data.

''However, overall shaky risk sentiments and concerns over global economic recovery may cap sharp upside. Tensions due to the Ukraine war may also weigh on the Rupee,'' Singh said, adding that the rupee may trade in the range of 76.80-78.30 in the next couple of sessions.

The commerce ministry on Friday said India's merchandise exports surged 30.7 per cent to USD 40.19 billion in April on account of healthy performance by sectors like petroleum products, electronic goods and chemicals, even as the trade deficit widened to USD 20.11 billion during the month.

On the domestic equity market front, the BSE Sensex ended 1,344.63 points or 2.54 per cent higher at 54,318.47, while the broader NSE Nifty jumped 417.00 points or 2.63 per cent to 16,259.30.

Foreign institutional investors remained net sellers in the capital market on Monday as they offloaded shares worth Rs 1,788.93 crore, as per stock exchange data.

Finance ministry didn't claim inflation hurts rich more than poor, says PIB

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The claim and counterclaim over inflation come at a time when retail inflation rose to an eight-year high in April to 7.8 per cent

sitharaman

The government on Monday disputed reports that the finance ministry had claimed that inflation hurts the rich more than the poor.

“A Tweet with the picture of Union  @nsitharaman is being circulated claiming that the Finance Ministry has stated-'Inflation will affect the rich more than the poor in 2022.' The Claim is fake. @FinMinIndia has not given such statement,” the Press Information Bureau (PIB)’s fact check division posted on its Twitter account.

The monthly economic review for April published by the finance ministry last week said: “Seen over a longer time horizon, inflation in India’s economy has not been as much a challenge as is sensed from month-to-month changes. CPI Inflation during FY 2021-22 averaged 5.5 per cent, 50 basis points below the upper limit of the RBI MPC’s inflation band, and lower than 6.2 per cent for FY 2020-21. While inflation is expected to be elevated in 2022-23, mitigating action taken by the Government and RBI may reduce its duration. Evidence on consumption patterns further suggests that inflation in India has a lesser impact on low-income strata than on high-income groups.”

A query sent to the finance ministry spokesperson didn't elicit any response till press time.

Under the current mechanism, the  has been mandated by the government to maintain retail inflation at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side.

The claim and counterclaim over inflation come at a time when retail inflation rose to an eight-year high in April to 7.8 per cent, even as industrial growth continued to falter amid rising risks from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

The data released by the National Statistical Office showed the food inflation rate in April spiralled to 8.38 per cent as prices of edible oil and vegetables shot up by 17.3 per cent and 15.4 per cent, respectively. Fuel inflation also breached the double-digit mark at 10.8 per cent in April over rising retail prices of petrol, diesel, and cooking gas even as crude oil prices softened compared to March.

Need to reduce taxes on oil in collaborative manner: CII President Sanjiv Bajaj

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In an interview to PTI, he said taxes on petrol and diesel were increased by the government at a time when the price of crude oil in the international market was low and the same needed to be reversed.Need to reduce taxes on oil in collaborative manner: CII President Sanjiv  Bajaj

Making a strong case for reduction in taxes on petrol and diesel, CII President Sanjiv Bajaj on Tuesday said it should be done in a collaborative manner between the Centre and states with a view to containing the rising inflation.

In an interview to PTI, he said taxes on petrol and diesel were increased by the government at a time when the price of crude oil in the international market was low and the same needed to be reversed.

"Very clearly one of our prime constituents of inflation is oil. We've seen the rise on the ground of oil prices resulting in petrol prices. We've seen the impact on inflation and this needs to be urgently addressed.

"We know taxation, both Centre and states, is very high and it is something which we have seen when oil prices fell, at that time rates were increased. Now that oil prices have gone up, we believe that there is a case for this to be discussed ...in a collaborative manner, because eventually we are doing this for one country," said Bajaj. The CII president also said the three contentious agri bills that were rolled back earlier "should be reviewed but in proper consultation and then taken forward".

Asked what impact the rollback of certain reforms in the past related to land acquisition and farm laws has on business sentiment in terms of policy stability especially on foreign investors eyeing India, Bajaj termed these as two different issues and said, with respect to foreign investors one should not do anything retrospectively.

"As far as farm laws and labour laws are concerned we believe that for this country to create its rightful position as a manufacturing hub for the world, we need modern labour laws. This requires the right kind of consultation and discussion with all stakeholders and we would at least support for the government to take this up in earnest, do it once more with the right consultations because we do believe it is important," he emphasized.

He argued that for the country's own food security, security of farmers, for ensuring streamlining of the number of steps from farm to fork, unnecessary intermediaries and their costs should be removed, and the agri bills also should be reviewed but in proper consultation and then taken forward.

On reports of High Networth Individuals (HNIs) leaving India, the CII president said, "We have to create over here an environment where India can prosper, Indian business can prosper. We don't then have to worry about a few people leaving".

He observed that people could have left due to many different reasons. "What we can do as a country is to create the right environment and as I said the current government has been doing that. To create the right environment where we attract business, we attract investment and that automatically should attract more and more people not only to not leave but to want to come to India," the CII president said.


India's petrol, diesel sales rebound in May as pick-up in economic activity

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Petrol sales grew 14 per cent during the first half of May when compared with the same period in the preceding month, while diesel demand rose 1.8 per cent

fuel

India's petrol and diesel consumption jumped in May as pick up in the economic activity as well as the start of the harvesting season aided the return of demand, a preliminary industry data showed on Monday.

Petrol sales grew 14 per cent during the first half of May when compared with the same period in the preceding month, while diesel demand rose 1.8 per cent. Cooking gas LPG, which last month saw consumption declining because of high prices, posted a 2.8 per cent rise in sales during May 1-15.

Petrol sales by state-owned fuel retailers, which control roughly 90 per cent of the market, at 1.28 million tonnes during May 1-15 were 59.7 per cent higher than the same period last year and 16.3 per cent higher than the period in 2019, preliminary industry data showed.

The consumption was 13.9 per cent more than the 1.12 million tonnes of sales in the first half of April 2022.

Diesel, the most-used fuel in the country, saw.

sales jumping 37.8 per cent year-on-year to 3.05 million tonnes in the first half of May. This was, however, 1.5 per cent lower than sales in April 2019. It was 1.8 per cent higher than 2.99 million tonnes of consumption during April 1-15 this year.

Industry sources said consumption in May is higher because of demand returning after high prices in the previous month cut demand. Also aiding the demand was the start of the harvesting season.

Another factor was the low base effect. April saw consumption drop due to a Rs 10 per litre hike in petrol and diesel prices after an over four-month hiatus.

Cooking gas, whose prices were hiked by Rs 50 per cylinder on March 2022 and on May 7 each, too saw a dent in consumption because of the rate increase. Sales of 1.05 million tonnes of LPG during May 1-15 was 5.4 per cent lower when compared to the year-ago period. It was 12 per cent lower than the same period of May 2020 but 9.4 per cent higher than 2019.

Month-on-month LPG demand was up 2.8 per cent when compared with 1.02 million tonnes sales in the first half of April 2022.

 (ATF) sales rose 83.5 per cent to 500,400 tonnes in May 1-15 to 251,400 tonnes but was 18.7 per cent less than pre-COVID levels of 2019. They were, however, 7.7 per cent more than the sales in the first half of April 2022.

ATF sales are expected to continue to pick up with the complete opening up of air travel.

LIC share lists with 9.4% discount, stock debuts on BSE at Rs 867

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Investors must be aware that the business of insurance is long term in nature and therefore experts recommend investors to stay with the company for the long termLIC share lists with 9.4% discount, stock debuts on BSE at Rs 867

India’s largest life cover provider Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) made a lacklustre debut on the bourses on May 17, with declining nearly 9.4 percent after its initial public offering was subscribed nearly three times last week.

The stock opened at Rs 867.20, against an issue price of Rs 949 on the BSE and touched a high and a low of Rs 886.80 and Rs 860.10, respectively. At 10.05am, the scrip was trading at Rs 883.40 on BSE, down 7 percent from its issue price of Rs 949 a share. India's benchmark Sensex rose 0.62% to 53224 points.

Corrections in the equity markets globally seem to have hit the listing for the biggest public issue in the history of the Indian capital market. The situation was worsened by mounting inflationary pressure, stricter lockdowns imposed in China to combat Covid outbreak, and an unabated war on Ukraine by Russian forces.

After the debut in the market, LIC has become the fifth most-valued Indian listed firm with a market capital of Rs 5.71 trillion. Reliance Industries Limited is the nation's most valued firm with an MCap of Rs 16.42 trillion followed by TCS, HDFC Bank and Infosys Ltd.

While lower valuation, compared to peers, is positive, accumulated losses of Rs 6,028 crore, losing market share, weak digital presence and the perception that not all decisions taken by the largest life insurer in the country are not in sync with shareholder interests are worrying analysts.

“The valuation at Price to Embedded Value of 1.1 had discounted the above concerns but investors must be aware that the business of insurance is long term in nature and therefore we recommend investors to stay with the company for the long term,” said Aayush Agrawal, Senior Analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.

LIC had offered a discount of Rs 60 to its eligible policyholders while a discount of Rs 45 was offered to retail investors and employees which means the issue price is set at Rs 889 per share for its policyholders and Rs 904 per share for retail investors and employees.

Experts believe that even if there is a discounted listing, a category of investors will make some listing gains as the likelihood of the stock listing at a discount higher than the discount offered by LIC to these investors is bare minimum.

“LIC would be an outstanding stock to hold on to and it could become a constant compounder in people’s portfolios and has an exciting path ahead where many passive indices tracking India will include it in their baskets,” said Sonam Srivastava Founder, Wright Research. She recommends investors to hold on to the LIC shares.

The Rs 21,000-crore public issue was oversubscribed 2.95 times with bids worth Rs 45,000 crore received across investor categories.

The strongest response for the IPO came in from the LIC policyholders who submitted bids worth 6.12 times their allocated portion. In terms of total applications received, the policy holders accounted for 60 percent of the applications.

Strong response was also received from eligible employees of LIC who subscribed 4.40 times the portion reserved for them. The issues portion reserved for retail employees was subscribed 1.99 times. The non-institutional category witnessed subscription worth 2.91 times, while qualified institutional buyers’ category saw subscription of 2.83 times.

LIC is the largest life insurer in India across the parameters of GWP (gross written premium), NBP (new business premium), number of individual policies issued, and the number of group policies issued. It has a market share of 61.4 percent in NBP (individual and group), compared to the nearest competitor, which has a market share of 9.16 percent on an NBP basis (individual and group).

It is ranked fifth globally by life insurance GWP and 10th globally in terms of total assets. As at December 31, 2021, LIC had 2,048 branch offices and 1,559 satellite offices in India, covering 91 percent of all districts in the country. LIC has over 13.5 lakh agents who bring most of the new business.

At the end of FY21, LIC had assets under management (AUM) worth Rs 37,46,404.47 crore, a year-on-year growth of 10 percent from an AUM of Rs 34,14,174.57 crore in the previous financial year. During this period, the net profit of LIC jumped to Rs 2,974.14 crore from Rs 2,710.48 crore. For the period ended December 31, 2021, LIC had a total AUM of Rs 40,90,786.78 crore and reported a net profit of Rs 1,715.31 crore.

LIC has been consistently losing market share to private peers. The insurer holds 64 percent market share in terms of total life insurance premium. It grew at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9 percent during FY16-21, while private insurers grew at 18 percent.

The government of India will still be the largest shareholder and key manager even after the IPO. Thus any future government intervention might be detrimental to shareholders.

LIC doesn’t have a strong digital presence and 90 percent of its policies are sold by agents. If this trend continues, then total cost is likely to increase for LIC, going forward.

However, Nitesh Shah, CEO-Wealth, Elara Securities India, believes that the long term prospects of LIC are very strong as it is the leading market player with more than 60 percent market share in life premium collection and listing of stock will also make LIC the most valuable and one of the largest market cap company on Indian Stock exchanges.

He bets his money on the stock from a long-term perspective.

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