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FPIs pour Rs 68,663 cr in debt instruments in 2023, turn positive after 3 years

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FPI investment in debt remained positive in all months of 2023 except in March, which experts attributed to year-end outflows.

Investments by foreign portfolio investors (FPI) in debt instruments turned positive in 2023 after three years due to attractive yields and the upcoming inclusion of Indian bonds in JPMorgan’s index, experts said.

FPI investment in debt stood at Rs 68,663 crore in 2023 compared to Rs 15,911 crore of outflows in 2022, according to data from the National Securities Depository Ltd. The last time debt investments by FPI were positive was in 2019 when inflows stood at Rs 25,882 crore, the data showed.

The FPI investment in debt in 2023 is also the highest since 2017 when it was about Rs 1.49 lakh crore in positive inflows.

“Globally, policy rates will start tapering down, so bond yields in emerging economies will be more attractive to investors. Also, inclusion in the JPMorgan index has been a major driver of FPI inflows in debt,” said Ajay Manglunia, managing director and head of investment group at JM Financial.

Venkatakrishnan Srinivasan, founder of Rockfort Fincap, said key reasons for the positive inflows in debt are the attractive yields on Indian debt instruments as the spread between US treasury and Indian government bond yields widen, improved economic outlook, currency stability, favourable regulatory changes, and improved market sentiment.On September 22 JPMorgan said that it would include Indian government bonds in its widely tracked emerging market index starting June 28, 2024. The inclusion of India’s sovereign bonds could potentially draw $30 billion of foreign inflows into the country.

Investments by FPIs in debt remained positive in all months of 2023 except March, which experts attributed to year-end outflows. FPIs pulled out Rs 2,505 crore from Indian debt instruments in March 2023.

Impact on bond yields

The FPI inflows helped yields on 10-year benchmark bonds to remain in the range of 7.15-7.45 percent. At the start of 2023, the yield on Indian bonds, especially the 10-year benchmark, was in the range of 7.00-7.44 percent due to higher inflation and rate increases by the Reserve Bank of India, experts said.

The yields started falling in April after the central bank paused rate hikes due to better economic conditions and a lower inflation trajectory. At that time, the yield on the 10-year benchmark bond fell to below 7 percent from 7.44 percent.

In July, the yields started going up gradually, which experts said was due to expectations of more interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and the RBI’s announcement of Incremental Cash Reserve Ratio (I-CRR) to drain out liquidity, among other factors.

Manglunia said the inclusion in the JPMorgan index may result in demand for sovereign bonds exceeding supply, which may lead to a moderation in yields.

Expected inflows in 2024

Money market dealers expect $25 billion to $27 billion to be invested in Indian bonds after the inclusion of Indian government securities in JPMorgan’s Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets. Based on this, Manglunia expects FPI investment in debt to remain positive in 2024.

Srinivasan said in 2024, this trend could potentially attract more foreign investment to India, provide greater liquidity to its bond market, and contribute to the country's economic growth.

Nifty Trading Wrap Up For 2 Jan,2024

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Share Market Closing Note


Nifty around 21,650, Sensex down 379 pts; pharma outperforms:


Benchmark indices ended lower on January 2 with Nifty around 21,650.


At close, the Sensex was down 379.46 points or 0.53 percent at 71,892.48, and the Nifty was down 76.10 points or 0.35 percent at 21,665.80. About 1691 shares advanced, 1631 shares declined, and 72 shares unchanged.


Top loser on the Nifty were Eicher Motors, M&M, UltraTech Cement, L&T and Kotak Mahindra Bank, while gainers were Coal India, Adani Ports, Sun Pharma, Divis Labs and Cipla.


Among sectors, pharma index up 2.5 percent, while auto, realty, capital goods, bank and Information Technology down 1 percent each.


BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices ended on a flat note.


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Topic :- Time:3.20 PM


Just In:

Coal Ministry reports 12.47% rise in cumulative coal production in FY 23-24 till December


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Topic :- Time:3.00 PM


Nifty is giving some signs of recovery tomorrow however its not safe to carry open positions. Nifty spot if holds above 21620 level on closing basis then some pull back can be seen and close below 21620 will result in some more pain in the market.


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Topic :- Time:2.30 PM


CRUDEOIL Trading View:

CRUDEOIL is trading at 6094. If it breaks and trade below 6040 level then some decline can be seen in it and if it holds above 6040 level then it will move for 6160-6180 levels soon.


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Topic :- Time:2.30 PM


Nifty is trading sideways and is not showing much movement. Lows should be used to go long for now. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 21640 level then expect some bounce back in the market and below 21600 level some decline can be seen. Currently Nifty spot is trading at 21628.


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Topic :- Time:1.30 PM


GOLD Trading View:

GOLD is trading at 63565. If it manages to trade and sustain above 63600 level then expect some quick upmove in it and if it breaks and trade below 63480 level then some decline can follow in it.


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Topic :- Time:1.25 PM


Just In:

Vodafone Idea issues clarification, says not in any talks with Elon Musks Starlink


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Topic :- Time:1.00 PM


Nifty is trading volatile in a range. Nifty spot is trading at 21602. If it breaks and trade below 21580 level then expect some further decline in the market and if it manages to trade and sustain above 21620 level then some upmove can be seen.


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Topic :- Time:12.50 PM


Just In:

Japan hit by 155 quakes, at least 12 dead confirmed.


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Topic :- Time:12.30 PM


COPPER Trading View:

COPPER is trading at 732.70. If it manages to hold above 730 level then expect it to test 736-737 levels quite soon and if it breaks and trade below 730 then some decline can be seen in it.


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Topic :- Time:12.00 PM


Nifty is trading volatile and is in deep red. For now highs should be used for going short. Nifty spot if breaks and trade below 21580 level then expect some further fall in the market and if it manages to trade and sustain above 21620 level then some upmove can be seen in the market.


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Topic :- Time:11.30 AM


News Wrap Up:

1. Sensex sinks 600 pts, Nifty at 21600; Pharma bucks trend

2. HUL receives Rs 447.5 cr GST demands and penalties, firm to make assessment

3. India Inc billionaire promoter club: Count swells to record 152 in 2023

4. India hikes windfall tax on crude oil, reduces tax on ATF and diesel

5. Amid JN.1 scare, India logs 573 new Covid-19 cases, 2 deaths in last 24 hrs

6. Vedanta Resources faces investor reckoning over $3.2 billion of bonds

7. Pakistan likely to get $700 mn from IMF

8. LIC gets Rs 806-crore GST demand notice

9. Bitcoin tops $45k for 1st time since Apr22

10. Onion export ban may be lifted


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