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Inflation based on wholesale prices eased to a seven-month low of 2.48 per cent in February on cheaper food articles, including vegetables.

On the basis of Wholesale Price Index (WPI), inflation was 2.84 per cent in January and 5.51 per cent in February 2017.

WPI inflation at 2.48 per cent in February is the lowest in seven months. The previous low level was recorded in July at 1.88 per cent.

According to a government data released today, inflation in food articles slowed to 0.88 per cent in February from 3 per cent in the preceding month.

Inflation in vegetables softened with annual inflation at 15.26 per cent as against 40.77 per cent in January.

While the rate of price rise in onion slowed, it increased in the case of another kitchen essential, potato.

Inflation in pulses remained in the negative zone at (-)24.51 per cent and so in cereals and wheat. WPI inflation in protein rich items like egg, fish and meat too was in the negative zone.

As per the data, inflation in 'fuel and power' segment too eased to 3.81 per cent in February compared to 4.08 per cent in the previous month.

The data also showed that the rate of price rise in manufactured items was higher compared to January.

As per the data of Central Statistics Office (CSO), retail inflation measured in term of Consumer Price Index had dropped to a four-month low of 4.44 per cent in February on cheaper food articles and lower cost for fuel.

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CPI inflation is expected to rise over the next few months and average close to 4.7 per cent in 2018-19, driving Reserve Bank to keep key policy rates on hold in the coming financial year, says a report.

According to Swiss brokerage firm UBS, the headline CPI inflation may average close to 4.7 per cent in 2018-19 (as against 3.6 per cent estimated in 2017-18).

"In our base case, we still expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to keep rates on hold in 2018-19," the report authored by Tanvee Gupta Jain, Economist at UBS Securities India, said.

Jain however noted that there might be a pre-emptive 50 bps hike over the next 12 months to ensure macro stability.

As per the report, the key risks to the base case CPI inflation forecast include higher minimum support prices (MSPs), global crude oil prices strengthening further and populist spending in the run-up to 2019 general election.

If these risks materialise, "we do not rule out a pre-emptive 50 bps hike over the next 12 months to ensure macro stability risks are contained," Jain added.

As per Central Statistics Office (CSO) data, retail inflation measured in term of Consumer Price Index fell to a four-month low of 4.44 per cent in February on cheaper food articles and lower cost for fuel.

Retail inflation was 5.07 per cent in January. In February 2017, however, it was 3.65 per cent.

Following the easing of retail inflation in February, there is industry clamour for a rate cut by RBI next month to maintain growth momentum.

The central bank's next monetary policy review is scheduled for April 5. It had kept the policy rate unchanged in its February meeting on fears of inflation.

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Topic :- Share Market Closing Note

The Sensex was up 610.80 points or 1.83% at 33917.94, and the Nifty up 194.50 points or 1.90% at 10421.40.

About 1380 shares have advanced, 1341 shares declined, and 210 shares are unchanged.

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Topic :- Time:3.05 PM

Nifty spot close above 10420 will result in some quick upmove in coming trading sessions and close below above mentioned level will result in some sluggish movement. Avoid open positions for tomorrow.

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Topic :- Time:2.30 PM

GOLD Trading View:

GOLD is trading at 30360. It will find its immediate support at 30280 level. If it manages to hold above 30280 level then it is likely to show some quick upmove and is expected to test 30480-30500 levels quite soon. Buy on every decline till it holds above 30280 level is recommended in it.

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Topic :- Time:2.05 PM

Just In:

Nifty PSU Bank hits fresh 19-month low; 8 banks hit respective 5-year lows

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Topic :- Time:2.00 PM

Nifty spot is trading at 10358. If it manages to trade and sustain above 10365 level then expect some upmove and if it breaks and trade below 10340 level then some profit booking can be seen in the market. As nifty is trading in critical zone so one should avoid agressive trading. Though nifty is up but sentiments are still not supporting with new scams in banking getting highlighted daily.

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Topic :- Time:1.45 PM

Just In:

Unitech properties , not under litigation, to be auctioned by Supreme Court to refund home buyers.

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Topic :- Time:1.40 PM

I-T dept uncovers Rs 5,200-cr fake diamond receipts; Mehul Choksi, Nirav Modi may be party to scam:

The Income Tax department has busted an about Rs 5,200-crore scam of fake receipts, which were used to inflate books and avail loans.

According to sources, Mehul Choksi and Nirav Modi  - who are at the centre of the Punjab National Bank fraud - also used these fake receipts to show fictitious revenue turnover in their books.

Two weeks ago, the Income Tax (I-T) department raided a company based in the Bharat Diamond Bourse, in Mumbais Bandra Kurla Complex in connection to the scam. This company allegedly issued the fake receipts.

Bharat Diamond Bourse is home to about 2,500 diamond traders.

A senior official of the I-T department told Moneycontrol, There are some businesses that issue sales and purchase invoices, and charge 1 percent of the total value as commission. These invoices are used to inflate revenue in the books. These invoices are used to draw pre and post shipment credit from banks.

Another source in the investigation agency added: Department has found that Mehul Choksi and Nirav Modi used fake receipts for inflating volumes in their books. Inflated books helped them take larger amount of loan from banks.

These fake receipts, issued between 2011 and 2016, could be worth about Rs 5,200 crore.

An executive from a listed diamond company explained the modus operandi. In diamond market, there are about 10-12 companies that actively use fake receipts.

These companies issue fake invoices for sales and purchase, without any movement of inventory, for a commission of 1-2 percent. These invoices are used to inflate the sales, and draw higher credit limits from the banks, against receivables. These companies offer local as well as export bills, from their entities based in overseas locations such as Hong Kong, Dubai and Singapore.

Another executive from the industry pointed out that a similar investigation was conducted about two years ago, but was dropped due to immense political pressure.

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Topic :- Time:1.30 PM

COPPER Trading View:

COPPER is trading at 450.80. If it breaks and trade below 450 level then expect some further decline in it and above 451.50-452 levels some upmove can be seen however 454-454.50 levels to be watched out for as immediate resistance.

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Topic :- Time:1.00 PM

Nifty is trading absolutely flat. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain abvoe 10340 level then expect some upmove and below 10300 level some profit booking can follow in the market. Avoid big trades and trade with stoploss.

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Topic :- Time:11.30 AM

News Wrap Up:

1. Nifty reclaims 10,300 levels; ITC, Tata Steel key gainers

2. Modi govt may give homebuyers a big say in its bankruptcy fight

3. L&T construction arm bags orders worth Rs 2,597 cr

4. Govt in a fix over Rs 34,000-crore missing GST

5. Ministerial committee may pave way for ArcelorMittals Essar Steel bid

6. Enforcement Directorate, SFIO lens on Rs 54-bn loans to Usha Martin group

7. Andhra Bank hits 14-yr low as ED files chargesheet against ex-bank official

8. Deutsche Bank values asset management at up to 7.2 billion euros in IPO

9. PNB fraud case: RBI must be kept out of the mud slinging

10. Signed biggest deal with Safran Group worth $12.5 bn: SpiceJet

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Topic :- Time:11.00 AM

Nifty spot is trading at 10329. If it manages to trade and sustain above 10340-10350 levels only then quick upmove is expected in the market and if it breaks and trade below 10310-10300 levels then some profit booking can be seen in Nifty.

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Topic :- Time:10.30 AM

After positive opening nifty is still trading in positive zone but little flat. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 10340 level then expect some further upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 10310-10300 levels then some profit booking can be seen in the market.

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Topic :- Nifty Opening Note

Indian Stock Market Trading View For 11 March,2018:

Volatility to continue in the market with sell on rise approach in this week. Global cues to be eyed.

Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 10260 level then expect some upmove and if it breaks and trade below 10180 level then some profit booking can be seen in the market. Please note this is just opening view and should not be considered as the view for the whole day.

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The Indian banking system is in "stasis" and we need an efficient financial system which does not get impacted frequently, banker Uday Kotak said today.

In the remarks that come amid the discovery of the nearly Rs 13,000-crore scam at Punjab National Bank scam, one of the biggest in the Indian banking history, Kotak also said there is a case for trimming the number of state-run lenders.

"We can't be bogged down every few years, from time-to-time, where the system gets into a stasis like it is today," the executive vice chairman and managing director of Kotak Mahindra Bank said at the India Today Conclave here.

There was no explicit mention of the scam at PNB allegedly involving gems and jewellery players Nirav Modi and Mehul Choksi by Kotak, who maintained that he does not wish to get into any "political debate".

"We frankly need fewer public sector banks which may happen through mergers and shrinkage," he said.

At present, there are 20 entities, including largest lender State Bank of India, which are run by the government and account for nearly 70 per cent of the assets in the system. Almost all of them are affected by high levels of non-performing assets (NPAs).

Kotak has grown his bank to be the fourth largest in the private sector space by merging with ING Vysya Bank. The lender recently raised Rs 5,500 crore in core capital for various purposes including the possibilities of inorganic growth.

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Activity in India's service industries contracted in February for the first time since November as rising price pressures led to a decline in new businesses orders, a private survey showed on Monday.

Services activity suffered for most of last year following a ban of high value currency notes in November 2016. The July 1 implementation of a national sales tax 1 was another setback, weakening demand.

The Nikkei/IHS Markit Services Purchasing Managers' Index fell to a six-month low of 47.8 in February, compared with January's 51.7.

"Both activity and new work declined for the first time since November, with rates of contraction the strongest since August, thereby ending the recent recovery experienced by India's service sector," said Aashna Dodhia, an economist at IHS Markit.

"Anecdotal evidence pointed to weak underlying demand conditions in the service economy."

A sub-index tracking new business sank to a six-month low of 48.0 last month from 51.7 in January as demand continued to be affected by higher prices.

The survey said prices rose at their fastest pace in seven months after a sharper hike in input costs forced services firms to transfer some of the inflationary pressure to customers.

Despite declining slightly in January, fuel prices remained elevated. That and expectations of massive government spending over the coming year are likely to keep the inflation rate above the Reserve Bank of India's medium term target of 4 percent in the near future, increasing the chances of a hike in the central bank's benchmark rate.

In February, manufacturers also faced accelerating inflation, pushing overall input prices to rise at their quickest pace in three and a half years.

The contraction in services activity offset an expansion in manufacturing and caused a composite PMI, which includes both, to plunge to 49.7, its lowest since August, from 52.5 in January.

"However, (services) firms seem to believe that the decline is transitory as they raised their staffing levels at the joint-fastest pace since June 2011, in line with positive projections of activity growth," said Dodhia.

Asia's third-largest economy grew at its sharpest annual rate in more than a year during the quarter to end-December, 7.2 percent, reclaiming its title of the world's fastest growing major economy.

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The government will not go for an expenditure cut in 2017-18 to meet fiscal deficit target of 3.5 per cent of GDP even as it has breached the level of 113.7 per cent of the target, Expenditure Secretary Ajay Narayan Jha said today.

"There is no expenditure cut. There has been a policy, there will not be any expenditure cut," Jha told reporters on the sidelines of an event here.

When asked how the government will meet the revised fiscal deficit target of 3.5 per cent, he said indirect tax collections have already been factored into the revised target.

The government has accounted for only 11-month of GST against 12-month of expenses as March GST numbers would come in April.

Fiscal deficit has touched Rs 6.77 lakh crore at the end of January 2018, 113.7 per cent of the target for the year, on account of higher expenditure.

The government had revised upwards the fiscal deficit at Rs 5.95 lakh crore or 3.5 per cent of GDP in the recent Union Budget.

Earlier, the fiscal deficit target was 3.2 per cent. Jha said the economy is looking up as the key sectors are showing buoyancy and growth.

"We expect that it will grow further and as per expectations. As far as fiscal deficit is concerned...a lot of adjustments will take place through recoveries which means that there is a net budgeting aspect," he said.

Further, he said the buoyancy in revenue also comes in the last two months of financial year and the fiscal deficit numbers will remain well within the revised target. Because of the early budget last year, the expenditure pace has been remarkably good, said the official.

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The Finance Ministry has directed managing directors (MDs) of public sector banks (PSBs) to examine all non-performing assets (NPAs) or bad loans over Rs 50 crore for possible fraud and refer the same to the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI).

The banks have been given 15 days to take preemptive action and identify and address operational and technological risks.

In a tweet, Rajeev Kumar, Secretary at the Department of Financial Services, Ministry of Finance said, “PSB MDs directed to detect bank frauds & consequential wilful default in time & refer cases to CBI. To examine all NPA accounts > Rs. 50Cr for possible fraud.  Involve ED/DRI for PMLA/FEMA/EXIM violations, if any. #EASE #NewIndia @FinMinIndia @PMOIndia @PIB_India.”

In another tweet he said, “15 day deadline for PSBs to take pre-emptive action & identify gaps/Weaknesses to gear up for rising Ops & Tech risks; To learn from best practices & pinpoint strategies including tech solutions; Clear accountability of senior functionaries. #EASE @PMOIndia @FinMinIndia @PIB_India”

The government has issued a diktat to executive directors and chief technology officers to identify weaknesses, do comparative assessment of the best practices and make a blueprint to enhance preparedness for rising operational and technological risk challenges.

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NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant said it is "extremely important" for the India-EU free trade pact to be ratified at the earliest as countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam already enjoy preferential access to European markets.

Kant also said the global suppliers will otherwise start looking at other avenues for sourcing as China was slowly ceding ground in the apparel space.

The proposed free trade agreement has been in works for long as the two sides are yet to bridge substantial gaps on crucial issues.

Addressing an event organised by apparel exporters' body AEPC India, Kant said, "Countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam are having preferential access in European markets and hence it is extremely important that we get the FTA with Europe ratified at the earliest.

"As far as Indian apparel exports are concerned, India is heavily reliant on cotton and we need to see how we can move to man-made fibres which can help us to garner more global share."

Kant, CEO of the government think-tank NITI Aayog, acknowledged there has been a reduction in the benefits for the industry after GST rollout.

"We are looking at ways through which we could bring it at par with the rates prevalent in the previous regime. For the benefit of the industry, the central and state levies should be refunded and the government will work with the industry to resolve this issue," he said.

Kant said it is important to resolve the issues like blocked taxes and refund of GST, and exchange rate related concerns to bring back the apparel export and manufacturing sector onto a growth path.

He further said a huge opportunity exists for India in the global apparel space with China moving out of the sector.

"China has started moving out of the apparel sector and there is a huge opportunity for India. Today the wages in China are 2-3 times that of India and given the ageing population of China, the cost of apparel manufacturing will continue to rise there," Kant said.

AEPC Chairman HKL Magu said as India is gearing up to move towards WTO-compatible, production-based subsidies from export-based subsidies, it becomes extremely important that the country positions itself strongly as a responsible sourcing destination.

"At the UP Investor's Summit, we have signed a MoU with the UK  government to construct an apparel city in 200 acres on Yamuna Expressway. With AEPC's capability and initiatives, and continued understanding and support of the Government, India's apparel exports are sure to grow from strength to strength while providing international buyers with most superior solutions in fashion and apparel," Magu said.

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India state refiners expect their profit margins to hold their strength this year as demand growth accelerates for fuel products amid a record $93 billion spent on infrastructure and stable crude oil prices, company executives and analysts said.

India's sales of cars and especially motorbikes are forecast to rise rapidly, even as the development of a Delhi-Mumbai industrial corridor drives consumption of the country's primary fuel products, diesel and gasoline.

The infrastructure programme for fiscal 2018/19 calls for more than 80,000 km (50,000 miles) in new highways to better connect rural areas with urban hubs. Roads and other construction require oil-based products such as tar and plastic piping, and fuel to move materials by truck and rail.

"They (these projects) will have a cascading effect on fuel demand," said R. Ramachandran, director of refineries at Bharat Petroleum, adding that this would be reflected directly in strong refining margins.

India's annual fuel demand, made up mainly of diesel and gasoline, is expected to grow 7.5 percent in 2018, according to a report by BMI Research, a unit of Fitch. That compares with 5.4 percent last year, according to government data.

"Strong fundamentals and rising demand in India indicate that refining margins will remain strong in the near term, for at least six months," Ramachandran said.

Refining margins also rely heavily on global crude oil prices, currently around $65 a barrel, and on the status of world inventories of refined products.

Indian refiners hope global prices will remain sub-$70 per barrel as world oil production rises while new refining capacity doesn't keep the pace.

The International Energy Agency said this month it expects oil production to slightly outpace demand this year, especially thanks to still rising output in the United States.

M. K. Surana, head of Hindustan Petroleum Corp, said he expected international crude prices between $62 and $68 a barrel this year, as long as there are no geopolitical crises or technical disturbances like damage to the Forties pipeline.

Based on that expectation, India's refiners should see refining margins, also known as cracks, in the range of $7-$8 per barrel for all three state-owned refiners.

"Products demand continues to rally on better industrial performance and weather-related support ... Rising oil prices have done little to dampen the growth so far," said Sri Paravaikkarasu, head of East of Suez Oil, at consultancy FGE.

FGE expects Singapore margins to hold around $6-$7 a barrels due to upcoming refinery maintenance and summer demand.

"The margins for Indian refiners will be slightly better ... as India prices its products on import parity basis," she said.

Asia's benchmark margins in the oil trading hub of Singapore currently stand around $7.20 per barrel.

CASH FOR THE COFFERS

Better refining margins for the state-owned refiners - and improved profit from selling retail fuel - will pump more cash into government coffers ahead of key elections this year and next for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who needs money for his ambitious healthcare and infrastructure programmes.

The cash inflow would come just ahead of eight state elections this year and national elections in 2019.

Healthy profits will also help the state-owned refiners to continue spending on expansion plans.

India aims to increase its refining capacity by 77 percent to about 8.8 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030, which will cost dozens of billions of dollars.

State-run refiners Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corp and Bharat Petroleum Corp, that sell most of their output locally at prices linked to global rates, largely reported strong profits and margins for the October-December quarter.

While Indian gasoline and diesel prices are linked to global rates, during state or central elections private rivals say state-owned firms often do not increase retail selling rates - a risk to margins, analysts point out, only if crude prices suddenly spike.

"We expect margins to improve ... Cracks appear to be good," said B. V. Rama Gopal, head of refineries at IOC.

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Topic :- Share Market Closing Note

Sensex ends 141 pts higher, Nifty settles at 10,397 levels; IT stocks rise:

The benchmark indices ended firm on Wednesday ahead of  the expiry of derivative contracts for February series on Thursday.

The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 33,845, up 141 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 10,397, up 37 points.

IT stocks ended 2.3% higher led by a over 4% rise in shares of HCL Technologies and Mindtree Ltd.

Stocks of pharmaceutical companies ended came under pressure, with the Nifty Pharma index settling nearly 2 per cent lower. Sun Pharma was the biggest loser of the day among the pharmaceutical companies, shedding 6.4% to settle at 523.90.

In global markets, Asian stocks gained on Wednesday, while the dollar advanced as traders near-term focus shifted to the minutes of the Federal Reserves last policy meeting for hints on the future pace of US monetary tightening. The Japanese Nikkei 225 ended at 21,971, up 0.2 per cent from the previous close.

MSCIs broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.7 per cent after slipping earlier in the session following the US market losses, which snapped a six-session winning streak..

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Topic :- Time:3.15 PM

Nirav Modi sacks employees across verticals, to shut shop

Nirav Modi has sacked employees across all verticals. Nirav Modi has also asked employees to collect relieving letters by February end as the firm will be shutting down all shops across the country. 

Nirav Modi has told his colleagues that near future seems a little uncertain and that he is concerned about the fairness of the processes that are being followed.

He has said also said that he is concerned at the speed at with which events are moving.

He has also told employees that he is taking this moment to acknowledge your immense support in building this company, adding that the organisation is suffering due to recent allegations filed by Punjab National Bank (PNB).

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Topic :- Time:3.10 PM

Nifty spot if closes above 10400 level then some pull back is expected in next few trading sessions and if it closes below above mentioned level then some sluggish movement will further be witnessed. Avoid open positions for tomorrow.

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Topic :- Time:2.30 PM

COPPER Trading View:

COPPER is trading at 453.60. If it breaks and trade below 453 level then expect some profit booking in it and if it manages to trade and sustain above 455.20 level then some upmove can be seen in COPPER.

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Topic :- Time:2.20 PM

Though nifty is still trading in small range but is turning volatile now. Nifty spot if trades and holds above 10400 level then quick upmove is expected and below 10350 level some selling pressure can again be build. Nifty is still in Sell on rise mode.

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Topic :- Time:2.00 PM

Just In:

India has lowest 4G LTE Speed in the world at 6 Mbps only.

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Topic :- Time:1.40 PM

GOLD Trading View:

GOLD is traiding at 30400. If it holds below 30480 level then expect it to fall till 30280 level quite soon and if it manages to trade and sustain above 30480 level then some pull back can be seen in it. Sell on every rise till it holds below 30480 is recommended in it.

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Topic :- Time:1.00 PM

Nifty is trading in a very small range. NIfty spot if breaks and trade below 10340 level then expect some further decline in the market and if it manages to trade and sustain above 10375 level then some pull back can be seen.

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Topic :- Time:12.10 PM

Nifty is still trading in small range. Nifty spot if breaks and trade below 10360 level then some softness can be seen and above 10410-10420 levels good upmove can follow in the Nifty.

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Topic :- Time:11.45 AM

PNB fraud: Payoffs, late night parties; corruption has seeped into very core of Indias public sector banks:

Late night parties at plush farmhouses and hefty kickbacks to top bank officials are two compulsory requirements for scamsters to access the loans from public sector banks that they fully know would turn into Non-Performing Assets (NPAs).

A Firstpost investigation into the Punjab National Bank-Nirav Modi fraud case shows that corruption has gone into the very bone and marrow of state-owned banks and this is not just a one-off for several banks, including PNB and others like UCO and Canara, which have encountered exposure in the Modi-Mehul Choksi scam.

Firstpost has exclusively accessed a confidential report of the Income Tax department and a statement of a director of Sterling Biotech, owned by Nitin and Chetan Sandesara, who had taken a loan to the tune of Rs 5,000 crore from various banks including PNB, Union Bank of India, UCO, Andhra bank and others which had turned into non-performing assets.

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Topic :- Time:11.30 AM

News Wrap Up:

1. Indices pare morning gains, turn flat; Nifty below 10400 mark

2. PNB Rs 114 bn fraud: Nirav Modis seized assets may only fetch a fraction

3. PSBs lose Rs 1 trn; PNB scam erodes investor interest spurred by recap plan

4. Hospitals making profits up to 1,700% on drugs, consumables

5. RIL to acquire 5% stake in Eros international for Rs 10 bn to produce films

6. Oil marketing companies trade weak; Indian Oil hits 52-week low

7. Gitanjali Gems hits all-time low; stock tanks 56% in six trading days

8. Domestic insurers play contra as mutual funds lap up shares

9. 5,000 plus Aircel employees told to brace for difficult times ahead

10. CBI begins questioning Vikram Kothari

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Topic :- Time:11.00 AM

Nifty is still trading in a small range. Avoid big trades and trade with strict levels.

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Topic :- Time:10.30 AM

After positive opening nifty is trading flat now. Nifty spot if breaks and trade below 10340 level then expect further decline and if it manages to trade and sustain above 10380 level then some pull back can be seen in the market.

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Topic :- Nifty Opening Note

Indian Stock Market Trading View For 21 Feb,2018:

Indian stock market to turn volatile and is expected to follow global cues.

Nifty spot if breaks and trade below 10340 level then expect some profit booking in the market however 10300 spot to act as immediate support below 10300 sharp fall is expected and if it manages to trade and sustain above 10380 level then some upmove can be seen in the market.

Please note this is just opening view and should not be considered as the view for the whole day.