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Sensex falls, Nifty holds 8750 ahead of RBI policy

7. February 2017 Rohit Stock Market Research (0)

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Indian Indices: Indian equity benchmarks continued to trade sluggish in late afternoon session as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's policy meeting due tomorrow. The RBI is expected to conduct its sixth and final bi-monthly monetary policy review of the current fiscal on February 7-8, 2017. Profit booking coupled with mixed global cues and a weak rupee, pulled the markets lower. Sentiments also remained downbeat with Commerce Minister NirmalaSitharaman’s statement that the proposed changes in the regime for issuing H-1B visas for skilled workers by the US government will have an impact on Indian companies and the Commerce Ministry will soon hold a meeting with the industry to discuss its strategy for dealing with it.Further, agency noted that under the new guidelines, three of the 21 state-run banks-- Central Bank of India, Indian Overseas Bank and United Bank of India will have positive reserves, who had negative distributable reserves under the earlier guidelines. Further it said that banks are required to appropriate 25% of their annual net profits towards statutory reserve.

The BSE Sensex is currently closed at 28364.83, down by 104.12 points or 0.37% after trading in a range of 28334.61 and 28483.41. There were 10 stocks advancing against 20 stocks declining on the index.The broader indices were trading mixed; the BSE Mid cap index was down by 0.02%, while Small cap index was up by 0.21%.

The CNX Nifty is currently shut down at 8768.30, down by 32.75 points or 0.37% after trading in a range of 8770.10 and 8809.30. There were 16 stocks advancing against 35 stocks declining on the index.

*MARKET INDICATORS*			·
*Top Movers (Group A)*
*Company*	Cmp	% chg
*Gainers*
*Unitech*	6.69	16.15
*Amtekauto*	38.70	11.05
*FSL*	43.35	9.61
*Trent*	260.00	6.30
*Losers*
*Jubilant*	700.00	-6.40
*Ramcocem*	676.25	-5.36
*Adanient*	92.10	-5.20
*JPassociat*	13.08	-4.94

*Market Statistics*
	*BSE*	*NSE*
*Advances*	1397	648
*Declines*	1190	811

Crporate Front: Mutual fund industry's asset base rose to all-time high of Rs 17.37 lakh crore at the end of January primarily on account of strong inflows in equity, income and money market segments, reported PTI.

Market Sentiment:

The market breadth on BSE was positive in the ratio of 1397: 1190, while 159 scrips remained unchanged.

Macroeconomic front:

The Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) has entered into four unilateral Advance Pricing Agreements (APAs) pertaining to the manufacturing, financial and information technology sectors. Four APAs were signed on Monday. The international transactions covered in these agreements include contract manufacturing, IT-enabled services and software development services," the Finance Ministry said in a statement here.

On the global front:

On the global front, European markets were trading mostly in green with some encouraging company updates and gains in healthcare stocks helping to counter weakness in oil majors and eurozone banks. However, Asian markets were trading in red as economic and political uncertainty gripped global markets.

Commodity Updates:

*Commodity Prices (MCX):*
*Commodity*	Rs	*% Chang*
*Gold*	*29248.00*	*0.19*
*Silver*	*42254.00*	*-0.08*
*Crude oil*	*3571.00*	*-0.22*
*Natural Gas*	*209.20*	*1.6*
*Alluminium*	*122.50*	*-0.45*
*Copper*	*391.80*	*-0.38*

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Consumer Durables up by 0.54%, Capital Goods up by 0.51%, Power up by 0.50%, Bankex up by 0.14% and PSU up by 0.10%, while Metal down by 0.96%, Auto down by 0.84%, TECK down by 0.24%, IT down by 0.24% and Oil & Gas down by 0.15% were the top losing indices on BSE.

Top Nifty Movers:The top gainers on Nifty were Kotak Mahindra Bank up by 2.05%, BPCL up by 1.85%, BHEL up by 1.63%, Bank of Baroda up by 1.38% and BhartiInfratel up by 1.30%. On the flip side, Tata Motors - DVR down by 3.04%, Coal India down by 3.03%, Tata Motors down by 2.58%, ONGC down by 1.88% and Hindalco down by 1.58% were the top losers.

Global Signals:

Asian markets were trading mostly in red; Nikkei 225 decreased 65.93 points or 0.35% to 18,910.78, Hang Seng decreased 16.67 points or 0.07% to 23,331.57, Jakarta Composite decreased 12.33 points or 0.23% to 5,383.67, Shanghai Composite decreased 3.9 points or 0.12% to 3,153.09, FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI decreased 2.47 points or 0.15% to 1,688.77 and KOSPI Index decreased 2.45 points or 0.12% to 2,075.21. On the flip side, Taiwan Weighted increased 16.55 points or 0.17% to 9,554.56.

European markets were trading mostly in green; Germany’s DAX increased 11.25 points or 0.1% to 11,521.09 and UK’s FTSE 100 increased 15.92 points or 0.22% to 7,188.07. On the flip side, France’s CAC decreased 1.48 points or 0.03% to 4,776.60.

US stocks see profit booking as US$ falls with bond yields while Gold sees safe haven buying!!

7. February 2017 Rohit Stock Market Research (0)

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Indian Indices: Asian markets opened mildly in the red as weakness in European markets & profit booking in the US indices saw money being taken off the table. The Japanese 'Nikkei" was the big loser as the US$ fell which saw the Yen hit near 3 month highs. Gold prices rallied to near term highs as safe haven buying emerged with equities seeing profit booking.

Nifty closed @ 5 month highs as it closed above 8800.The RBI policy on Wednesday will see near term volatility till the event, however the trend continues to be 'buy the fall' as any weakness is seeing buying. With mutual fund inflows the strongest ever in the last 5 years expect retail participation to continue to drive indices higher albeit at a slower pace as nearness to 8900 will see caution prevail.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 28391.21, down by 48.07 points or 0.17% after trading in a range of 28361.97 and 28483.41. There were 14 stocks advancing against 16 stocks declining on the index.The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.28%, while Small cap index was up by 0.45%.The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 8784.75, down by 16.30 points or 0.19% after trading in a range of 8773.55 and 8809.30. There were 21 stocks advancing against 30 stocks declining on the index.

MARKET INDICATORS			·
*Group ATopGainers*
*Company*	Price (Rs)	% chg
*Corpbank*	54.20	10.95
*ICRA*	4379.85	7.0
*Unitech*	6.27	8.85
*Trent*	259.35	6.03
*Group ATopLosers*
*Redington*	103.10	-3.28
*Muthootfin*	342.00	-2.91
*HDIL*	68.60	-2.63
*SREinfra*	95.25	-2.56

Market Statistics
	BSE	NSE
*Advances*	*1703*	*770*
*Declines*	*673*	*693*

Technical view: Nifty will find resistance around 8840 which is almost 80% of the retracement of the entire fall, while 8740 will act as support. Bank Nifty however is in blue sky territory with 20576 being the last resistance on the upside while 20200 acts as strong support.

INDEX PERFORMANCE
*Indices*	*Support*	*Resistanes*
*Sensex*	*8775*	*8840*
*Nifty*	*28357*	*28569*

Trading ideas :RCF (Buy above Rs 62 for target of Rs 68, SL at Rs 59): Stock has broken out from a bullish flag pattern on daily charts continuing its prior uptrend. Our analysis of weekly charts indicate, RCF has also broken out from a triple bottom pattern in first week of Jan 2016. We expect the current momentum to be carried forward as other momentum oscillators are also indicating strength in the current upmove. We advise to Buy RCF above Rs 62, stop loss at Rs 59 and Target of Rs 68.

Corporate Snippets: ONGC’s decision to invest USD11.5bn in Andhra Pradesh, at a time when gas prices in India are falling, may put its cash flow under pressure.

NTPChas decided to shut down old polluting power plants of capacity totalling roughly 11GW and replace those with new ones which are highly efficient.

CESChas bagged the power distribution franchisee for Bikaner city in Rajasthan. It plans to invest Rs1.35bn in the network in three years and hopes to clock a turnover of around Rs4bn.

Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were BHEL up by 2.74%, BhartiInfratel up by 1.59%, BPCL up by 1.45%, Kotak Mahindra Bank up by 1.11% and GAIL India up by 0.98%. On the flip side, Tata Motors down by 2.06%, Tata Motors - DVR down by 1.91%, Zee Entertainment down by 1.56%, ACC down by 1.49% and Bajaj Auto down by 1.41% were the top losers.The top gainers on Nifty were BHEL up by 2.74%, BhartiInfratel up by 1.59%, BPCL up by 1.45%, Kotak Mahindra Bank up by 1.11% and GAIL India up by 0.98%.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening: The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were PSU up by 0.57%, Oil & Gas up by 0.56%, Consumer Durables up by 0.55%, Metal up by 0.53% and Capital Goods up by 0.35%, while Auto down by 0.91%, IT down by 0.16%, TECK down by 0.15% and Bankex down by 0.10% were the losers on BSE.The top gainers on the Sensex were Sun Pharma up by 1.12%, ITC up by 0.85%, GAIL India up by 0.82%, Tata Steel up by 0.65% and Cipla up by 0.60%.

On the global front: On the global front, Asian shares were trading mostly in red, as global cues dampened sentiments with economic and political fears sent investors seeking shelter in the yen. China is expected to report on Tuesday that foreign exchange reserves fell for the seventh straight month in January but at a much slower pace as authorities’ tightened controls on capital outflows and the surging US dollar lost some steam.

Global Signals: The Asian markets were trading mostly in red; Hang Seng decreased 12.39 points or 0.05% to 23,335.85, Nikkei 225 decreased 12.1 points or 0.06% to 18,964.61, Shanghai Composite decreased 10.35 points or 0.33% to 3,146.63, Jakarta Composite decreased 9.05 points or 0.17% to 5,386.95, KOSPI Index decreased 3.44 points or 0.17% to 2,074.22 and FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI decreased 2.93 points or 0.17% to 1,688.31. On the other hand, Taiwan Weighted increased 9.4 points or 0.1% to 9,547.41.

Sensex, Nifty end at 5 month high AmjujaPharma up

6. February 2017 Rohit Stock Market Research (0)

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Company Overview:

Idea Cellular is an Aditya Birla Group Company, India's first truly multinational corporation. Idea is a pan-India integrated GSM operator offering 2G and 3G services, and has its own NLD and ILD operations, and ISP license. Idea has won spectrum to launch 4G services across 10 key markets and has initiated multiple steps towards introduction of 4G LTE services on 1800 MHz, in a phased manner from calendar year 2016 onwards.With revenue in excess of $5 billion; revenue market share of nearly 18.2% (as on Q4FY15); and subscriber base of over 165 million, Idea is one of the top 3 mobile operators. Idea is the sixth largest mobile operator in the world, based on number of subscribers in single country operations (GSMA Intelligence). Idea carries a traffic of over 2 billion minutes a day.

Idea has a deep rooted network across the length and breadth of the country comprising of over 1,49,196 cell sites covering 7,513 towns and 3,63,580 villages as on Q1FY16.

Investment Rationale:

Vodafone-Idea merger: Telecom behemoth in the making:

Vodafone and Idea Cellular issued a press release on 30 January 2017 highlighting that they are in a preliminary discussion to explore merger opportunities. This deal is likely to have large-scale ramifications in the telecom industry, as the merged company may emerge as a leader with ~42% revenue market share and a strong broadband network. It would also help reduce their annual capex by ~20-25% and improve EBITDA margin by ~500bp. Assuming both Vodafone and Idea have an equal stake, the combined entity should be valued at ~7x EV/EBITDA, reducing leverage by 10-15%, albeit with a low posttaxRoCE of 5%. We believe Idea’s stock is not a play on valuation, but on the likely improvement in its market standing post the merger, which should address the key concern around its earnings visibility.

Performance highlights:.

Challenges: Spectrum and revenue caps remain the key hurdles :In our view, the deal could face two key challenges: India’s telecom M&A rules do not allow revenue and subscriber market shares above 50%. Similarly, spectrum holding in each band is not allowed above 50%. The merger company’s revenue/subscriber caps and spectrum caps may get triggered in 7 and 6 circles, respectively. However, the merged company’s revenue/subscriber share is more than 60% in only one circle – Kerala. In the rest of the circles, it is between 50% and 60%. This may get resolved once RJio starts charging subscribers and taking revenue market share.Based on the current 50% band-wise spectrum cap, the merged company has ~33 MHz of excess spectrum, of which ~15 MHz is 900 MHz paired spectrum. Based on latest spectrum valuation (pro-rata for the remaining license term), the merged company may be able to generate over INR75b from the excess spectrum. This should support the merged company’s cash outflow toward liberalizing the administered spectrum, which is ~20% of the merged company’s spectrum.

How would the combined entity look :The merged company should have revenue of INR745b (1HFY17 annualized), assuming 20% lower revenue due to the weak outlook and revenue market share shrinkage. We expect the merged company to garner healthy EBITDA margin of 35%, at ~500bp discount to Bharti India wireless’ FY17E EBITDA margin. This implies about 500bp margin improvement, which could potentially come from network synergies, employee costs and SG&A.Improving combined EBITDA could improve Idea’s leverage, albeit by a moderate 10-15%. Current net debt to EBITDA of 5x could reduce to ~4x. This would still remain high for the merged company.Assuming about 20% synergy on total assets as well as EBITDA synergies, the merged company’s post-tax RoCE could improve to 5%, from 3-4% for Idea and Vodafone.

Financials :

Particulars	2016	2015	2014
Revenue	35816.55	31279.47	26179.47
Other Income	183.44	452.34	---
Total Income	35999.99	31731.81	26179.47
Expenditure	-23992.29	-21606.06	-18856.16
Interest	-1797.96	-931.66	-624.79
PBDT	10209.74	9194.09	6698.52
Depreciation	-6199.50	-4855.01	-4093.24
PBT	4010.24	4339.08	2605.28
Tax	-1393.58	-1529.24	-915.97
Net Profit	2616.66	2809.84	1689.31

Highlights the fact:

* Vodafone and Idea currently are the second and third largest telecom operators, respectively, in the Indian telecom industry. We thus believe that the merged entity could emerge as an industry leader, with combined revenue and subscriber market share of 42% and 36%, respectively, and blended ARPU of INR178.

* Bharti and RJio currently hold the highest spectrum (20% of market) and cell sites. They are also the most aggressive players in the industry, given their deep network and low capacity utilization. However, the merged company could pose a major challenge with combined spectrum share of ~23% and broadband cell sites of over 1,60,000 (close to Bharti’s 1,70,000 sites and ~40,000 lesser for RJio).

* Post-merger, the three strong operators – the merged company, Bharti and RJio – could be equipped with equal armory to compete in the market. This scenario could support our expectation of an improving competitive landscape and industry ARPU accretion in 2HFY18.

the merger should impact bharti infratel’s tenancies

We expactBhartiInfratel to grow tenancies and rental revenues at 7% and 9%, respectively, over FY16-19E. We believe if this deal goes through, it will impact BhartiInratel’s tenancies given that 85% of the tenancies are derived from the top three operators. As the merged company may pair down unwanted network overlaps between the two entiies, we suspect a one time 10% tenancy reduction. Also as the merged company may have higher geographical coverage, we expect ti to offer potentially 30-40% reduction in annual tenancy.

VALUATION & OUTLOOK:

Assuming Vodafone is an equal shareholder, the combined entity should be valued at about 7x EV/EBITDA, factoring in 500bp EBITDA margin improvement. Vodafone should fetch EV of INR917b and equity value of INR360b.

We have not changed our estimates for Idea on the back of limited clarity on the deal. We put the stock under review until we gather more clarity on the likelihood of the deal and the potential impact of the same on valuations and earnings. We believe Idea is no more a play on valuation at potentially ~7x EV/EBITDA for the merged company. If the deal goes through, the merged company’s wherewithal to stand in the highly competitive market will be a key monitorable. Given the merged company’s superior spectrum/network position, higher revenue market share and ~20-25% lower capex requirement, the high FCF could be used to strengthen its market position.

Global indices consolidate as US$ stabilizes with Federal Reserve on hold!!

3. February 2017 Rohit Stock Market Research (0)

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Major headlines:

· Telecom subscriber base crossed 1.12 bn in NOV

· Government awards 6.26 lakh people to promote digital payments

· Railways add 2 new features to its mobile app

INDEX PERFORMANCE
*Indices*	*Support*	*Resistanes*
*Sensex*	*8525*	*8660*
*Nifty*	*27565*	*27950*

Indian Indices: Asian markets opened in the green as value buying emerged after the recent bout of profit booking. With base metals seeing resumption of demand commodities could be clear gainers this year. Oil prices saw an uptick while Gold consolidated around US$ 1200.

Nifty saw bouts of profit booking through the day but managed to close in the green as Pharma stocks saw a sharp rebound. With the Rupee showing extreme strength & results of corporates surprising on the upside any fall would be an opportunity to buy since the left out feeling looms large. For today expect Pharma& IT to see value buying while commodities & banks could see profit booking.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 28228.56, up by 1.95 points or 0.01% after trading in a range of 28180.11 and 28280.58. There were 20 stocks advancing against 10 stocks declining on the index.The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index surged 1.05%, while Small cap index was up by 0.80%.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 8734.90, up by 0.65 points or 0.01% after trading in a range of 8717.75 and 8748.25. There were 30 stocks advancing against 21 stocks declining on the index.

MARKET INDICATORS			·
*Group ATopGainers*
*Company*	Price (Rs)	% chg
*Suntv*	681.60	23.51
*RCOM*	37.75	11.85
*Unitech*	5.36	10.74
*Glenmark*	954.00	5.07
*Group ATopLosers*
*ICRA*	4025.65	-2.34
*ICICIBANK*	280.35	-1.82
*ACC*	1411.30	-1.69
*Exideind*	206.55	-1.48

Market Statistics
	BSE	NSE
*Advances*	*808*	*770*
*Declines*	*1371*	*693*

Technical view: Nifty will make an attempt till 8780-8800 which should act as resistance while 8600 will act as strong support. Bank Nifty sees resistance closer to 20283 while 19800 acts as strong support.

Market Sentiment:

The market breadth on BSE was negative in the ratio of 808:1371, while 153 scrips remained unchanged.

Trading ideas :PNB (Buy above Rs 143 for target of Rs 150, SL at Rs 139.5): Stock has seen decent accumulation in the past five weeks with higher top and higher bottom formation in place. After this consolidation, PNB has broken out from a rounding bottom formation giving a close above crucial resistance of Rs 141. Past few days have seen volume spurting with price action on higher side indicating strength in the current momentum. We advise to Buy PNB above Rs 143, stop loss at Rs 139.5 and Target of Rs 150.

Corporate Snippets:

Dishman Pharmaceuticals and Chemicals Ltdhas received an Establishment Inspection Report (EIR) from the US health regulator on closure of inspection of its Bavla facility in Gujarat

NLC is installing 500 MW solar power plants for Rs. 21.70 billion at various places in Tamil Nadu. It said the power plants are expected to generate 83 crore unit of power per annum.

IL&FS Engineering and Construction Company Ltdhas received Letter of Intent for two Rural Electrification Works under DeenDayalUpadhyay Gram JyotiYojana, and Integrated Power Development Works of West Bengal State Electricity Distribution Company Limited, Kolkata worth Rs5.16bn.

Nifty Movers: The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were PSU up by 0.82%, Power up by 0.58%, Metal up by 0.40%, Bankex up by 0.35% and Oil & Gas was up by 0.33%, while Consumer Durables down by 0.71%, IT down by 0.53%, Auto down by 0.41% and Capital Goods was down by 0.04% were the few losing indices on BSE.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening: The top gainers on Nifty were BhartiInfratel up by 2.62%, Bank of Baroda up by 2.45%, Indusind Bank up by 1.76%, Idea Cellular up by 1.55% and BHEL was up by 1.40%. On the flip side, ICICI Bank down by 1.43%, Infosys down by 1.27%, Eicher Motors down by 1.17%, Tata Motors - DVR down by 0.96% and Bosch was down by 0.83% were the top losers.

On the global front: On the global front, Asian markets were exhibiting mixed trend with Chinese market declining after resuming the trade from the long Lunar New Year holidays. China raised the interest rates in open-market operations. The US markets made a flat closing in last session after showing a choppy trade amid uncertainty about monthly jobs report as well as the impact of President Donald Trump's policies.

Global Signals: Asian markets were trading mixed; Jakarta Composite rose 4.75 points or 0.09% to 5,358.47, FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI increased 6.15 points or 0.37% to 1,679.63, Taiwan Weighted gained 8.61 points or 0.09% to 9,437.58 and Nikkei 225 was up by 39.27 points or 0.21% to 18,953.85.On the flip side, Hang Seng decreased 111.88 points or 0.48% to 23,072.64, Shanghai Composite declined 18.07 points or 0.57% to 3,141.10 and KOSPI Index decreased 2.93 points or 0.14% to 2,068.08.

Nifty to outperform global indices as budget spurs rural spending with tax cuts!!

2. February 2017 Rohit Stock Market Research (0)

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Major headlines:

· DishmanPharma receives EIR report from USFDA for Bavla facility

· Tata Motors registers 46,349 units sale in Jan 2017

· Tax incentives to corporates to cost Rs 83.492 cr in FY 17

INDEX PERFORMANCE
*Indices*	*Support*	*Resistanes*
*Sensex*	*8525*	*8660*
*Nifty*	*27565*	*27950*

Indian Indices: Asian markets opened in the green ex Japan which continues to see profit booking as the yen strengthens against the US$.With the Federal Reserve leaving rates unchanged & indicating no hurry for any further action US stocks closed marginally higher.The Japanese yen continues to see strength against the greenback which indicates the rally in US$ may be short lived.

Nifty saw hardly any volatility with strong buying emerging after no change in LTCG was announced. This saw short covering & value buying lift indices sharply higher as the left out buying spurred stock prices higher.For today expect consolidation around 8700 levels with sector/stock out performance continuing.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 28167.28, up by 25.64 points or 0.09% after trading in a range of 28078.08 and 28194.00. There were 15 stocks advancing against 15 stocks declining on the index.The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.80%, while Small cap index was up by 0.63%.The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 8719.55, up by 3.15 points or 0.04% after trading in a range of 8692.05 and 8727.00. There were 23 stocks advancing against 28 stocks declining on the index.

MARKET INDICATORS			·
*Group ATopGainers*
*Company*	Price (Rs)	% chg
*Tatacomm*	772.30	7.00
*Godrejind*	463.15	6.25
*Adanient*	96.25	5.95
*Cummins*	896.00	5.54
*Group ATopLosers*
*Renuka*	14.90	-3.87
*Hindalco*	192.45	-3.27
*HDIL*	64.10	-3.03
*Unitech*	4.86	-2.99

Market Statistics
	BSE	NSE
*Advances*	*808*	*770*
*Declines*	*1371*	*693*

Technical view: Nifty will attempt 8780 which was the 10th October 2016 high & which will act as resistance, while 8537 will act as strong support.Bank Nifty will find resistance @ 20283 while 19800 will act as strong support.

Market Sentiment:

The market breadth on BSE was negative in the ratio of 808:1371, while 153 scrips remained unchanged.

Trading ideas :BHARATFIN (Buy above Rs 803 for target of Rs 845,SL at Rs 782): Stock has witnessed classic inverse head and shoulder pattern breakout on daily charts. Also, on hourly charts stock has given a breakout after consolidating in a range for quite some time. The breakout have been accompanied with stellar volumes, and the stock is likely to continue its prior up trend. Other momentum oscillators also indicate strength in the current upswing We advise to Buy BHARATFIN above Rs 803, stop loss at Rs 782 and Target of Rs 845.

Corporate Snippets:

Indian Oil Corporationis set to foray into retail, pipeline and refinery sectors in Bangladesh, Myanmar, Vietnam and Nepal.

Grasim industruessaid it is not making any "large investment" into Idea Cellular as part of the proposed merger between Idea and Vodafone.

SonaAutocomp Holding Limited has entered into an agreement with JTEKT Corporation, to sell its entire stake in Sona Koyo Steering SystemsLimited (SKSSL) for Rs4.19bn.

Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were Idea Cellular up by 3.63%, NTPC up by 2.49%, BhartiAirtel up by 2.25%, ITC up by 2.13% and Axis Bank up by 2.12%.

On the flip side, Hindalco down by 2.34%, Tata Motors down by 2.15%, Mahindra & Mahindra down by 2.10%, Bosch down by 1.66% and GAIL India down by 1.56% were the top losers.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were FMCG up by 1.03%, Oil & Gas up by 0.93%, PSU up by 0.71%, TECK up by 0.67% and IT up by 0.60%, while Metal down by 0.78%, Auto down by 0.64%, Capital Goods down by 0.35% and Realty down by 0.19% were the losing indices on BSE.

On the global front: On the global front, Asian shares were trading mostly in red, on tensions between Iran and the US, over a ballistic missile test by Tehran this week and even the tenor of President Donald Trump’s phone calls with world leaders. Japanese policymakers rejected Trump’s charges of currency manipulation on Wednesday. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe defended the Bank of Japan’s huge stimulus program and said it was to reflate the economy, and was not currency manipulation.

Global Signals:The Asian markets were trading mostly in red; Nikkei 225 decreased 159.88 points or 0.83% to 18,988.20, Hang Seng decreased 157.24 points or 0.67% to 23,161.15, Taiwan Weighted decreased 4.47 points or 0.05% to 9,443.48 and KOSPI Index decreased 3.19 points or 0.15% to 2,077.29.On the other hand, FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI increased 4.68 points or 0.28% to 1,676.22 and Jakarta Composite increased 15.09 points or 0.28% to 5,342.25.China market remains closed for the final day of Lunar New Year holidays that started on 27 January 2017.

Sensex, Nifty cheers up on Union Budget 2017

1. February 2017 Rohit Stock Market Research (0)

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Major headlines:

· ArunJaitelypropses IT for education, more skill centres

· Ananth Kumar calls Budget 2017-18 revolutionary

· Moody’s analyst says India’s budget fiscally prudent reforms key

INDEX PERFORMANCE
*Index*	*Close*	*% Chg*
*Sensex*	*27,141.64*	*1.76*
*Nifty*	*8,716.40*	*1.81*

Indian Indices: Indian benchmarks gained momentum and were trading jubilantly in late afternoon session with frontline gauges surpassing their crucial levels of 28,000 (Sensex) and 8,650 (Nifty), as Finance Minister ArunJaitley made no reference to long-term capital gains tax on equities and also set a comfortable fiscal deficit target of 3.2% for the fiscal year 2017-18. Some support also came after FM unveiled a slew of measures in income tax, small housing and small and medium businesses, among others, in the Union Budget for 2017-18. Moreover, proposal to further liberaise FDI policy too uplifted the trading sentiments. On the sectoral front, banking sector stocks gained traction after Jaitley announced that the government will infuse another Rs 10,000 crore in public sector banks for re-capitalisation. Fertilisers stocks surged after FM committed to double farmer income in five years.

The BSE Sensex is currently closed at 28,141.64 up by 485.68 points or 1.76% after trading in a range of 27590.10 and 28157.41. There were 19 stocks advancing against 11 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 1.22%, while Small cap index was up by 1.13%.

The CNX Nifty is shut up at 8716.40, up by 155.10 points or 1.81% after trading in a range of 8537.50 and 8726.25. There were 34 stocks advancing against 17 stocks declining on the index.

*MARKET INDICATORS*			·
*Top Movers (Group A)*
*Company*	Cmp	% chg
*Gainers*
*Indiacem*	161.85	11.20
*Bhartfin*	804.65	9.39
*Manapuram*	84.50	7.17
*Edelweiss*	118.05	7.12
*Losers*
*Suzlon*	16.25	-5.19
*JetAirways*	390.00	-3.13
*Hathway*	36.35	-2.94
*TCS*	2172.00	-2.60

*Market Statistics*
	*BSE*	*NSE*
*Advances*	1397	648
*Declines*	1190	811

Crporate Front: The Finance Minister ArunJaitley during the Union Budget presentation in Parliament on Wednesday said that the Modi government took two tectonic policy initiatives - passage of GST Bill and demonetization. FM Jaitley also assured that the effects of demonetisation is not expected to spill over to the next year.

Market Sentiment:

The market breadth on BSE was positive in the ratio of 1397: 1190, while 159 scrips remained unchanged.

Macroeconomic front:

The Finance Minister ArunJaitley during the Union Budget presentation in Parliament on Wednesday said that 5 per cent Tax Deducted at Source (TDS) on insurance agents will be removed.The Minister also said that Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) will come up with 8 per cent of the guaranteed scheme for senior citizen of the country.

On the global front:

On the global front, European markets were trading in green after good factory data from Europe and Asia. Asian markets were trading in green. Back home, in scrip specific development, TCPL Packaging edged higher after the company commenced the commercial production from its Flexible Packaging Unit (FPU) situated at village Dapada, Silvassa in the Union Territory of Dadra and Nagar Haveli, with effect from February 01, 2017.

Commodity Updates:

*Commodity Prices (MCX):*
*Commodity*	Rs	*% Chang*
*Gold*	*28941.00*	*-0.0*
*Silver*	*42190.00*	*0.67*
*Crude oil*	*3585.00*	*-0.8*
*Natural Gas*	*218.30*	*2.58*
*Alluminium*	*218.30*	*2.58*
*Copper*	*122.30*	*-0.33*

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Realty up by 3.40%, FMCG up by 2.30%, Auto up by 2.23%, Bankex up by 2.21% and Capital Goods up by 1.77%, while IT down by 1.76% and TECK down by 1.32% were the few losing indices on BSE.

Top Nifty Movers:The top gainers on Nifty were ICICI Bank up by 4.48%, ITC up by 3.84% and Bank of Baroda up by 3.84%, GAIL India up by 3.25% and HDFC up by 3.23%. On the flip side, HCL Tech down by 3.52%, Tech Mahindra down by 3.36%, Idea Cellular down by 2.82%, TCS down by 2.81% and AurobindoPharma down by 2.37% were the top losers.

Global Signals:

The Asian markets were trading mostly in green; KOSPI Index increased 12.91 points or 0.62% to 2,080.48, Jakarta Composite increased 37.23 points or 0.7% to 5,331.34 and Nikkei 225 increased 106.74 points or 0.56% to 19,148.08. On the flip side, Hang Seng decreased 85.87 points or 0.37% to 23,274.91.

All the European markets were trading in green; France’s CAC increased 43.85 points or 0.92% to 4,792.75, UK’s FTSE 100 increased 47.06 points or 0.66% to 7,146.21 and Germany’s DAX increased 115.87 points or 1% to 11,651.18.

Budget Highlights of 2017

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Here are the highlights of this year's budget:

►Income Tax rate cut to 5 pc for individuals having income between Rs 2.5 lakh to Rs 5 lakh

►10 pc surcharge on individual income above Rs 50 lakh and upto Rs 1 cr to make up for Rs 15,000 cr loss of due to cut in personal I-T rate

►15 pc surcharge on income above Rs 1 cr to continue

►Of 3.7 cr individuals who filed tax returns in 2015-16, 99 lakh showed income below exemption limit

►Direct tax collection not commensurate with income and expenditure pattern

►Revenue deficit reduced to 2.1 pc from 2.3 pc for 2016-17

►Govt pegs fiscal deficit target at 3.2 per cent for 2017-18 and 3 per cent for next year.

► Monetary policy to be expansionary in major economies

► More steps will be taken to benefit farmers and the weaker sections; budget being presented during weak global economy

►Pace of remonetisation has picked up;demonetisation effects will not spill over to next year

►Functional autonomy of the railways to be maintained

►Demonetisation will help in transfer of resources from tax evaders to government:

►Merger of Railways Budget with General Budget brings focus on a multi-modal approach for development of railways, highways and inland water transport

►Only transient impact on economy due to demonetisation; long term benefit include higher GDP growth and tax revenue

►GDP will be bigger, cleaner after demonetisation

►Effects of demonetisation not expected to spill over to the next year, says Finance Minister

►Govt took two tectonic policy initiatives - passage of GST Bill and demonetisation

►Demonetisation was a continuation of series of measures taken by govt in 2 yrs; it is bold and decisive measure

►We are seen as engine of global growth; IMF sees India to grow fastest in major economies

►36 pc increase in FDI flow; forex reserves at USD 361 billion in January enough to cover 12 months needs

►CAD declined from 1 pc last year to 0.3 pc in first half of current fiscal: FM

►India has emerged as bright spot in the world: FM

►Uncertainty around commodity prices especially oil to have impact on emerging economies: FM

►Double digit inflation has been controlled; sluggish growth replaced by high growth; war on blackmoney launched: FM

►We have moved from discretionary based administration to policy based administration: FM Jaitley

► Agricultural sector is expected to grow at 4.1 per cent this fiscal, says Jaitley

►Demonetisation was a bold and decisive strike in a series of measures to arrive at a new norm of bigger, cleaner and real GDP

►Committed to double farm income in 5 yrs

►Plan, non-plan classification of expenditure done away with in the Budget for 2017-18 to give a holistic picture

►Mini labs by qualified local entrepreneurs to be set up for soil testing in all 648 krishi vigyan kendras in the country

►Budget presentation advanced to help begin implementation of schemes before onset of monsoon

►We will continue the process of economic reform for the benfit of poor

►Spend more in rural areas, infra, poverty alleviation, while maintaining fiscal prudence as guiding principle of Budget

►Our agenda for next year is to transform, energise and clean India

►World Bank expects GDP growth rate at 7.6 pc in FY18 and 7.8 pc in FY19

►Allocation under MNREGA increased to 48,000 crore from Rs 38,500 crore. This is highest ever allocation

►Rs 9,000 cr higher allocation for payment of sugarcane arrears

►Target of agriculture credit fixed at Rs 10 lakh cr in 2017-18

►Tax administration honouring the honest is one of the 10 pillars of Budget 2017-18

►National Testing agency to conduct all examinations in higher education, freeing CBSE and other agencies

►133-km road per day constructred under Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana as against 73-km in 2011-14

►Govt to set up dairy processing fund of Rs 8,000 crore over three years with initial corpus of Rs 2,000 crore

►1 cr households to be brought out of poverty under Antodya Scheme

►Participation of women in MNREGA increased to 55 pc from 45 pc in past

►Modern law on contract farming will be drafted and circulated to states

►Dedicated micro-irrigation fund to be created with a corpus of Rs 5000 crore

►Market reforms will be undertaken, states will be asked to denotify perishables from Essential Commodities Act

►Space technology to be used for monitoring MNREGA implementation

►Sanitation coverage in villages has increased from 42 pc in Oct 2016 to 60 pc, a rise of 18 pc, says FM

►We propose to provide safe drinking water to 28,000 arsenic and fluoride affected habitations

►To construct one crore houses by 2019 for homeless. PM Awas Yojana allocation raised from Rs 15,000 cr to Rs 23,000 cr

►100 pc electrification of villages to be completed by May 2018

►27,000 cr on to be spend on PMGSY; 1 cr houses to be completed by 2017-18 for houseless

►PM Kaushal Kendras will be extended to 600 districts; 100 international skill centres to be opened to help people get jobs abroad

►The allocation for rural agri and allied sector in 2017-18 is record Rs 1,81,223 crore

►In higher education, we will undertake reforms in UGC, give autonomy to colleges and institutions

►A system of annual learning outcome in schools to be introduced; innovation fund for secondary education to be set up

►Two new AIIMS to be set up Jharkhand and Gujarat

►New rules regarding medical devices will be devised to reduce their cost

► 1.5 lakh health sub centres to be converted to Health Wellness Centres

►National Housing Bank will refinance indiviual loans worth Rs 20,000 crore in 2017-18

►Rs 500 cr allocated to set up Mahila Shakti Kendras; Allocation raised from Rs 1.56 lakh cr to Rs 1.84 lakh cr for women & child welfare.

►Capital and development expenditure pegged at Rs 1.31 lakh cr for railways in 2017-18 from Budget

►Allocation for SCs increased from Rs 38,833 cr to Rs 52,393 cr, a rise of 35 per cent

►35 pc increase in allocation for SC to Rs 52,393 cr

►For senior citizens, Aadhaar based health cards will be issued

►Model Shops and Establishment Bill to open up additional opportunities for employment of women

► Select airports in tier-II cities to be taken up for operations, development on PPP mode

►New metro rail policy to be unveiled

►Railway tariffs to be fixed on the basis of cost, social obligation and competition

►Service charge on e-tickets booked through IRCTC will be withdrawn

►Delhi and Jaipur to have solid waste management plants and five more to be set up later

►Government proposes Coach Mitra facility to redress grievances related to rail coaches

►500 stations will be differently abled by providing lifts and escalators

►Unmanned railway level crossings to be eliminated by 2020

►Railway line of 3,500 km will be commissioned in 2017-18 as against 2,800 km in 2016-17

►Total allocation for rural, agri and allied sectors for 2017-18 is a record Rs 1,87,223 cr, up 24 per cent from last year

►Rs 1 lakh cr corpus for railway safety fund over five years

►A scheme for senior citizens to ensure 8 per cent guaranteed returns

►Dedicated micro-irrigation fund to be set up by NABARD to achieve mission of Per Drop, More Crop

►Digi Gaon will be launched to promote tele-medicine and education

►Crude oil strategic reserves to be set up in Odisha and Rajasthan apart from 3 already constructed

►Coverage of Fasal Bima Yojana to go up from 30 pc of cropped area to 40 pc in 2017-18 and 50 per cent next year

►For transport sector, including railways, road and shipping, government provides Rs 2.41 lakh crore

►Allocation of Rs 10,000 cr for Bharat Net project for providing high-speed broadband in FY18

►Allocation for national highways stepped up to Rs 64,000 cr from Rs 57,676 cr

►Budget allocation for highways stepped up to Rs 64,000 crore in FY18 from Rs 57,676 crore

►Dispute resolution in infrastructure projects in PPP mode will be institutionalised

►Rs 2,74,114 crore allocated for defence expenditure, excluding pension; This includes Rs 86,000 crore for defence capital

►Govt to further liberalise FDI policy

►Over 90 per cent of FDI proposls are now processed through automatic route

►FIPB will be abolished

►Trade Infrastructure Export Scheme to be launched in 2017-18; total allocation for infra at record Rs 3.96 lakh cr

►Second phase of solar power development to be taken up with an aim of generating 20,000 MW

►After demonetisation on Nov 8 last year, deposit of between Rs 2 lakh and Rs 80 lakh made in 1.09 cr bank accounts at an average of Rs 5.03 lakh till Dec 30

►More funds beyond Rs 10,000 cr for recapitalisation of banks will be provided if needed

►The shares of railway CPSCs like IRCTC and IRFC to be listed on various stock exchanges

►We are largely a tax non-compliant society

►New ETF with diverse stocks will be launched in 2017-18

►Of 76 lakh individuals who reported income of over Rs 5 lakh, 56 lakh are salaried

►Integrated public sector oil major to be created to match global giants

►Govt will amend the Multi-state Cooperative Act to protect the poor and gullible investors

►Urgent need to protect poor from chit fund schemes, draft bill placed in public domain

►Computer emergency response team to be set for cyber security of financial sector

► Govt to introduce two new schemes to promote BHIM App - referal bonus for users and cash back for traders

►Govt doubles distribution target under Mudra Yojana to Rs 2.44 lakh crore for 2017-18

►Over Rs 80 lakh deposits in 1.48 lakh cr at an average of Rs 3.31 cr per account

►Customs duty on LNG halved to 2.5 pc

►FPI to be exempt from indirect transfer provisions

►Political parties can receive donations in cheque, electronic mode; electoral bonds to be issued by RBI

►Maximum amount of cash donation a political party can receive will be Rs 2000 from any one source as part of effort to clean political funding

►Capital expenditure stepped up by 25.4 pc in FY18 over previous year

►Total expenditure in FY18 at Rs 21.47 lakh cr

►Duty exempted on various POS machines and iris readers to encourage digital payments

►Rs 7,200 cr revenue loss due to reduction in tax on smaller companies

►Govt mulling introduction of legal changes to confiscate assets of offenders, including economic offenders, who flee the country

►Govt to set up a web-based interactive platform for defence pensioners

►Head post offices to issue passports

►Govt considering option to amend Negotiable Instruments Act to ensure that holders of dishonoured cheques get payment

►FRBM review committee has recommended 60 pc debt to GDP ratio; 0.5 pc of GDP deviation from stipulated fiscal deficit targets

►Payment regulatory board to be set up in RBI to regulate electronic payments, replacing Board for Regulation and Supervision in Payments and Settlements System

►3 yr period for long-term capital gains tax on immovalble property reduced to 2 years; base year indexation shifted from 1.4.1981 to 1.4.2001

►A proposal to receive all government receipts beyond a certain threshold through e-modes under consideration

Global markets consolidate with sentiment turning sour as profit booking deepens against Trump rhetoric uncertainty.

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Major headlines:

· Property prices fell due to cash crunch

· Retail inflation likely to be below 5% survey

· Speaker to take call on Budget

INDEX PERFORMANCE
*Indices*	*Support*	*Resistanes*
*Sensex*	*8525*	*8660*
*Nifty*	*27565*	*27950*

Indian Indices: Asian markets opened flat as after 2 days of weakness some consolidation may keep indices range bound.Dow Jones had another triple digit selloff as sentiment turned weak with profit booking the theme for this week.Gold prices rallied as buying defensive assets aginst the back drop of risk off trade played out.

Nifty will see sharp volatility for today as we prepare for the Union Budget against the global back drop of uncertainty at its highest in recent months.The lingering rumour of change in LTCG(long term capital gain) tax will be key in deciding market trend in the very short term.For once India may be in the sweetest spot ever as it continues to be the best destination against the global back drop of uncertainty as the resumption of normalcy after the demonetization exercise will trigger huge local consumption led spending even as the Government prepares to unleash huge tax breaks to spur the economy.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 27662.21, up by 6.25 points or 0.02% after trading in a range of 27590.10 and 27725.16. There were 14 stocks advancing against 16 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.15%, while Small cap index was up by 0.14%.

MARKET INDICATORS			·
*Group ATopGainers*
*Company*	Price (Rs)	% chg
*MMTC*	65.40	4.14
*Unitech*	4.99	3.31
*JPassociat*	11.76	3.07
*RDEL*	62.30	3.06
*Group ATopLosers*
*Idea*	104.90	-4.81
*CYIENT*	444.00	-3.80
*HCLTECH*	780.00	-3.57
*Jetairways*	390.80	-2.93

Market Statistics
	BSE	NSE
*Advances*	*808*	*770*
*Declines*	*1371*	*693*

Technical view: Nifty will find support around 8400 while 8720 will act as resistance. Bank nifty finds support @ 19021 which is the 100 DMA while 19800 will act as resistance.

Market Sentiment:

The market breadth on BSE was negative in the ratio of 808:1371, while 153 scrips remained unchanged.

Trading ideas :WOCKPHARMA Feb Fut (Sell below Rs 648 for Target of Rs 636 ,SL at Rs 654): Stock is moving in a downtrend after it took resistance at its 50-DMA and made a short term top around Rs 728 on 6th Jan 2016.

Multiple attempts to close above the 50-DMA went futile, and the stock has further witnessed a fresh breakdown from a bearish pennant formation. This would lead to a phase of fresh down trend. We advise to SELL WOCKPHARMA Feb Fut below Rs 648, stop loss at Rs 654, and Target of Rs 636.

Corporate Snippets:

NatcoPharma said a US District Court has ruled in favour of its marketing partner Mylan by invalidating Israel-based Teva Pharmaceuticals’ patents related to multiple sclerosis drug Copaxone 40 mg/mL.

Rural Electrification Corp (REC)has signed loan agreement with Tamil Nadu's power generation and transmission utilities for financial assistance of Rs68.90bn.

Lokesh Machines Ltd has signed up with Taiwanese company Tongtai Machine & Tool Co Ltd to manufacture hi-speed vertical machining centre model EZ5 for the Indian market as well as for re-export from its new facility at Kallakal near Hyderabad.

Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were Bank of Baroda up by 2.45%, Grasim Industries up by 2.16%, SBI up by 2.13%, Maruti Suzuki up by 1.56% and Tata Motors - DVR up by 1.19%. On the flip side, Idea Cellular down by 4.45%, HCL Tech down by 3.72%, TCS down by 2.75%, AurobindoPharma down by 2.46% and Tech Mahindra down by 2.26% were the top losers.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening: The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Realty up by 1.03%, PSU up by 0.88%, Capital Goods up by 0.70%, Consumer Durables up by 0.63% and Oil & Gas up by 0.61%, while IT down by 2.24%, TECK down by 1.88%, Metal down by 0.31% and Power down by 0.18% were the losing indices on BSE.

On the global front: On the global front, Asian shares were trading mostly in green, taking cues from Chinese manufacturing data and as investors awaited the latest views from the Federal Reserve on monetary policy in its first review of the year. China’s official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) continued in expansion in January, as the mainland economy shows signs of stabilizing, reaching 51.3, down slightly from 51.4 in December.

Global Signals: The Asian markets were trading mostly in green; KOSPI Index increased 10.9 points or 0.53% to 2,078.47, Jakarta Composite increased 30.63 points or 0.58% to 5,324.73 and Nikkei 225 increased 111.41 points or 0.59% to 19,152.75.On the other hand, Hang Seng decreased 165.55 points or 0.71% to 23,195.23.China, Malaysia and Taiwan stock exchange has been closed for the day on account of holiday.

Yes Bank Stock Research Report

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Company Overview:

YES BANK has been recognized amongst the Top and Fastest Growing Banks in various Indian Banking League Tables by prestigious media houses and Global Advisory Firms, and has received several national and international honours for our various Businesses including Corporate Investment Banking, Treasury, Transaction Banking, and Sustainable practices through Responsible Banking. YES BANK is steadily evolving as the Professionals’ Bank of India with the long term mission of “Building the Finest Quality Bank of the World in India” by 2020.

Key points

Strong NII, declining COFs help profits:

Yes Bank posted strong results for Q3FY2017 with a strong net interest income (NII) growth as well maintaining the asset quality. The NII for Q3FY2017 increased by 30.3% year on year (YoY) to Rs1,507.5crore on the back of strong advances and growth in the current and savings account (CASA). The net interest margin (NIM) expanded to 3.5% (up 10 basis points [BPS] from Q2FY2017). NIMs expansion was mainly due to the cost of funds (CoF) coming down due to softening interest rates and a rise in CASA deposits. While the treasury profit helped the Other income grow by 33.8% YoY to Rs998.3 crore, the bank is steadily building its fee income stream.

Strong growth traction continues:

Yes Bank saw strong growth traction as its advances grew smartly by 38.7% YoY to Rs117,087 crore with Corporate Banking (which accounts for 68.9% of the advances) was up 42% YoY and Retail & Business banking business (including micro, small & medium enterprises [MSME]; forming 31.1% of the advances) was by 32% YoY. Deposits grew by 30.5% YoY to Rs132,375.8crore.

Performance highlights:.

The performance on CASA deposits front was robust (CASA ratio up 300BPS from Q2 to 33.3%), helped partly by the demonetisation drive but also indicating the improvement in retail segment. Both SA deposits (Rs29,348crore) and CA deposits (Rs14,778 crore) grew by 13% and 14% respectively since Q2FY2017. The management has indicated that amongst the small and medium enterprises (SME) clients, most are adopting the formal banking channel which is positive for the long term.

Brand Pillars:

The YES BANK brand is built around key Brand Pillars, which epitomize the growing strengths of the Bank. All communication and advertising has been created around these key brand pillars.

Growth: YES BANK's core promise is growth for its internal and external stakeholders symbolized in ‘Say YES to Growth!’
Trust: YES BANK's Promoters, Investors, and Top Management team are all of the highest pedigree with a demonstrated track record, thus inspiring and establishing a Trust Mark – ‘Say YES to Trust!’

Innovation & Technology: YES BANK is establishing the highest standards in customer service by adopting cutting-edge, innovative Technology. The only thing constant about technology used at YES BANK is Evolution.

Valuation :

Particulars	FY 15	FY 16	FY17E
Net Interest Income(cr)	3487.8	4566.7	5459.1
Net Profit	2005.4	2539.4	3133.2
EPS	48.7	60.4	74.5
EPS Growth (%)	8.57	23.98	23.38
PE (X)	21.8	17.6	14.2
Book Value	283.0	327.0	386.1
P/BV	3.7	3.2	2.7
RoE (%)	21.3	19.9	20.9
RoA (%)	1.6	1.7	1.8

Highlights the fact:

1)Yes Bank, by virtue of its size (and thereby avoiding large-ticket problem loans), and business mix has been able to perform better than peers.

2)Yes Bank has consciously decided to pursue balance sheet growth via customer assets (advances plus credit substitutes).

3)Yes Bank’s asset quality has been good with the gross non-performing advances (GNPA) stable at 0.85% and net non-performing advances (NNPA) also stable at 0.29% as compared with Q2 and credit cost at only 8BPS for Q3FY2017.

4)Faster deposit repricing compared to assets may actually help the bank to sustain or improve its margins in the near term.

5)The standard restructured advances were at Rs500 crore (42BPS of advances) having reduced from 0.67% (Rs568.3 crore) in Q3FY2016. There was no additional restructuring and no sale to asset reconstruction company during the quarter and the total security receipts (SRs) stood at Rs258 crore (22BPS of the advances) which make for a robust performance in the backdrop of rampant asset quality stress among its banking peers.

Technically View:

The stock is currently trading around 50 days and 100 days, moving average that is all about good positive moov& uptrend signal on daily base. RSI &MFI is present at 57 and 78respectivally, which is uptrend& showing the sideways formation for the short term period. The stock is currently in the upward formation and when it hold above 1400 then somemore upside is expecting with major support is found 1360 level. MACD line is greaterthen signal line 10 day Avg Volume is very high.

VALUATION & OUTLOOK:

Yes Bank is available at 2.9x FY2018 BV which is attractive given its comfortable capital position. It has a capital to risk (weighted) assets ratio (CRAR) of 16.9% (Tier-1 at 12.2%), attractive return on equity (RoE) of 20+% and return on asset (RoA) of 1.8+%.

It has successfully built an attractive franchise and a steadily growing retail business. We are positive on Yes Bank and maintain a “Buy” rating on the stock with an unchanged price target of Rs1,520.

We retain our Buy recommend in this script with a price target of Rs 1500-1520 in the very short term outlook. So Entry would be around 1360-1380as recomanded in this counter.

Yes Bank Stock Market Research Report

30. January 2017 Rohit Stock Market Research (0)

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Company Overview:

YES BANK has been recognized amongst the Top and Fastest Growing Banks in various Indian Banking League Tables by prestigious media houses and Global Advisory Firms, and has received several national and international honours for our various Businesses including Corporate Investment Banking, Treasury, Transaction Banking, and Sustainable practices through Responsible Banking. YES BANK is steadily evolving as the Professionals’ Bank of India with the long term mission of “Building the Finest Quality Bank of the World in India” by 2020.

Key points

Strong NII, declining COFs help profits:

Yes Bank posted strong results for Q3FY2017 with a strong net interest income (NII) growth as well maintaining the asset quality. The NII for Q3FY2017 increased by 30.3% year on year (YoY) to Rs1,507.5crore on the back of strong advances and growth in the current and savings account (CASA). The net interest margin (NIM) expanded to 3.5% (up 10 basis points [BPS] from Q2FY2017). NIMs expansion was mainly due to the cost of funds (CoF) coming down due to softening interest rates and a rise in CASA deposits. While the treasury profit helped the Other income grow by 33.8% YoY to Rs998.3 crore, the bank is steadily building its fee income stream.

Strong growth traction continues:

Yes Bank saw strong growth traction as its advances grew smartly by 38.7% YoY to Rs117,087 crore with Corporate Banking (which accounts for 68.9% of the advances) was up 42% YoY and Retail & Business banking business (including micro, small & medium enterprises [MSME]; forming 31.1% of the advances) was by 32% YoY. Deposits grew by 30.5% YoY to Rs132,375.8crore.

Performance highlights:.

The performance on CASA deposits front was robust (CASA ratio up 300BPS from Q2 to 33.3%), helped partly by the demonetisation drive but also indicating the improvement in retail segment. Both SA deposits (Rs29,348crore) and CA deposits (Rs14,778 crore) grew by 13% and 14% respectively since Q2FY2017. The management has indicated that amongst the small and medium enterprises (SME) clients, most are adopting the formal banking channel which is positive for the long term.

Brand Pillars:

The YES BANK brand is built around key Brand Pillars, which epitomize the growing strengths of the Bank. All communication and advertising has been created around these key brand pillars.

Growth: YES BANK's core promise is growth for its internal and external stakeholders symbolized in ‘Say YES to Growth!’
Trust: YES BANK's Promoters, Investors, and Top Management team are all of the highest pedigree with a demonstrated track record, thus inspiring and establishing a Trust Mark – ‘Say YES to Trust!’

Innovation & Technology: YES BANK is establishing the highest standards in customer service by adopting cutting-edge, innovative Technology. The only thing constant about technology used at YES BANK is Evolution.

Valuation :

Particulars	FY 15	FY 16	FY17E
Net Interest Income(cr)	3487.8	4566.7	5459.1
Net Profit	2005.4	2539.4	3133.2
EPS	48.7	60.4	74.5
EPS Growth (%)	8.57	23.98	23.38
PE (X)	21.8	17.6	14.2
Book Value	283.0	327.0	386.1
P/BV	3.7	3.2	2.7
RoE (%)	21.3	19.9	20.9
RoA (%)	1.6	1.7	1.8

Highlights the fact:

1)Yes Bank, by virtue of its size (and thereby avoiding large-ticket problem loans), and business mix has been able to perform better than peers.

2)Yes Bank has consciously decided to pursue balance sheet growth via customer assets (advances plus credit substitutes).

3)Yes Bank’s asset quality has been good with the gross non-performing advances (GNPA) stable at 0.85% and net non-performing advances (NNPA) also stable at 0.29% as compared with Q2 and credit cost at only 8BPS for Q3FY2017.

4)Faster deposit repricing compared to assets may actually help the bank to sustain or improve its margins in the near term.

5)The standard restructured advances were at Rs500 crore (42BPS of advances) having reduced from 0.67% (Rs568.3 crore) in Q3FY2016. There was no additional restructuring and no sale to asset reconstruction company during the quarter and the total security receipts (SRs) stood at Rs258 crore (22BPS of the advances) which make for a robust performance in the backdrop of rampant asset quality stress among its banking peers.

Technically View:

The stock is currently trading around 50 days and 100 days, moving average that is all about good positive moov& uptrend signal on daily base. RSI &MFI is present at 57 and 78respectivally, which is uptrend& showing the sideways formation for the short term period. The stock is currently in the upward formation and when it hold above 1400 then somemore upside is expecting with major support is found 1360 level. MACD line is greaterthen signal line 10 day Avg Volume is very high.

VALUATION & OUTLOOK:

Yes Bank is available at 2.9x FY2018 BV which is attractive given its comfortable capital position. It has a capital to risk (weighted) assets ratio (CRAR) of 16.9% (Tier-1 at 12.2%), attractive return on equity (RoE) of 20+% and return on asset (RoA) of 1.8+%.

It has successfully built an attractive franchise and a steadily growing retail business. We are positive on Yes Bank and maintain a “Buy” rating on the stock with an unchanged price target of Rs1,520.

We retain our Buy recommend in this script with a price target of Rs 1500-1520 in the very short term outlook. So Entry would be around 1360-1380as recomanded in this counter.

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