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India's GDP to grow 9.1% in 2022: Goldman Sachs

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After India's economy contracted by a sharp 7 percent in 2020, Goldman Sachs pegged the economy to grow at 8 percent in 2021 and 9.1 percent in 2022.

It earlier estimated India's economic growth to 11.1 percent in fiscal year to March 31, 2022.

It expects consumption and investment to be the key drivers of growth in 2022.

"We expect consumption to be an important contributor to growth in 2022, as the economy fully re-opens driven by a notable improvement in the virus situation and adequate progress on vaccination," Goldman Sachs said in a report.

"We also expect government capital spending to continue, see nascent signs of a private corporate capex recovery, and a revival in housing investment," it added.

The brokerage also forecasts the headline CPI inflation to increase to 5.8 percent in 2022 from 5.2 percent in 2021, led by an increase in core inflation as manufacturers pass on input cost increases to consumers as demand recovers with full economic re-opening.

Santanu Sengupta, India economist, Goldman Sachs said," Given higher oil prices and the domestic demand recovery, the current account is going to open up and the deficit in our estimation is going to go up from 0.9 percent of GDP to 1.5 percent of GDP."

The brokerage also expects cumulative 75 basis points of repo rate hikes in 2022. 

"India did a lot in terms of  liquidity loosening, keeping the banking system liquidity in surplus throughout the Covid period, and it had cut reverse repo rate. So, what you're seeing now is the reversal of that liquidity loosening. So, the banking system liquidity will get tighter over time. And at some point of time, the policy corridor will be narrowed that that is the reverse reverse repo rate will be hiked," said Sengupta.

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