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Oil rally triggers fresh weakness in emerging markets as US bond yields rise above 2.5%

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Major headlines:

·         Oil prices stable supported as output cuts hit market

·         Global and domestic cues subdue Indian equities

·         ADB trims India’s 2016 growth forecast to 7.0 percent














Indian Indices:  Asian markets opened flat after a weak start to the week saw most indices close in the red on Monday. The sharp rally in crude combined with US 10 year bond yields crossing 2.5% saw weakness again creep up in the emerging markets basket. The Dow Jones continues its unprecedented rally as money chases US stocks, ETF"s & bonds.

Nifty could consolidate ahead of the Federal Policy tomorrow night as low volumes yesterday saw impact cost expand which accentuated the selloff. Fresh adventurous shorts were behind the selloff as foreign flows were muted which explains the low volume. The surprise Tata Motors open offer @ 10% premium will catch most shorts off guard which could see other Tata group stocks also rise in tandem. 

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 26567.89, up by 52.65 points or 0.20% after trading in a range of 26494.23 and 26611.81. There were 19 stocks advancing against 11 stocks declining on the index. The broader indices were trading mixed; the BSE Mid cap index was down by 0.31%, while Small cap index was up by 0.08%. The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 8176.40, up by 5.60 points or 0.07% after trading in a range of 8155.80 and 8200.95. There were 25 stocks advancing against 26 stocks declining on the index.





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Technical view:    Nifty broke the 200 dma(day moving average) @ 8202 which will act as resistance while 8150 will act as support. Bank Nifty also broke below important supports & will find fresh support around 18250 while 18618 the 21 dma will act as resistance.


Market Sentiment:

The market breadth on BSE was negative in the ratio of 930:1091, while 113 scrips remained unchanged.


Trading ideas :      BPCL Dec Fut (Sell below Rs 615  for Target of Rs 595 , SL at Rs 625): The stock reversed from the declining trend line which also coincided with the 50 day moving average. The stock has further slipped below its 100-DMA too indicating weakness in the current move. Other momentum oscillators are also showing signs of down tick in prices. We expect BPCL to move lower towards potential target of Rs595.


Macroeconomic Front:    Hopes of meeting the Centre's targeted GST implementation deadline of April 1, 2017, receded further in a situation of political confrontation unleashed by its demonetisation measure after the two-day meeting of the GST Council scheduled to end on Monday being cut short half-way.

Corporate Snippets: Tata Motors said it will hike the prices of its passenger vehicles by up to Rs 25000 from next month in order to offset the increased input costs.


Natco Pharma has launched generic Tamiflu capsules, used for the treatment of influenza, in the Ameerica market after the final nod from the US health regulator in Aug 2016.


Alkem Laboratories said the US health regulator has issued three obervations after inspection of the company’s API facility at Ankleshwar in Gujrat.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:  The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Consumer Durables up by 1.06%, Auto up by 0.85%, Oil & Gas up by 0.78%, FMCG up by 0.33% and PSU up by 0.14%, while Metal down by 1.07%, Realty down by 0.36%, Bankex down by 0.23%, TECK down by 0.19% and IT down by 0.14% were the losing indices on BSE.

Nifty Movers:   The top gainers on Nifty were Tata Motors up by 2.26%, BPCL up by 1.97%, Wipro up by 1.80%, Tata Motors - DVR up by 1.73% and Idea Cellular up by 1.39%.  On the flip side, Hindalco down by 2.86%, Zee Entertainment down by 2.69%, Grasim Industries down by 1.66%, Lupin down by 1.61% and Ultratech Cement down by 1.34% were the top losers.




On the global front:       On the global front, Asian shares were trading mostly in green, as investors awaited the looming outcome of the Federal Reserve’s rates review, with all eyes on how the Fed steers monetary policy in the wake of Republican Donald Trump's surprise election win last month. Chinese data showed factory output and retail sales grew faster than expected in November, while fixed-asset investment was in-line with forecasts, adding to growing signs of stabilization in the world’s second-biggest economy.


Global Signals:    The Asian markets were trading mostly in green; FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI increased 1.59 points or 0.1% to 1,643.01, KOSPI Index increased 2.85 points or 0.14% to 2,030.09, Taiwan Weighted increased 17.63 points or 0.19% to 9,367.57 and Nikkei 225 increased 50.08 points or 0.26% to 19,205.11. On the other hand, Hang Seng decreased 82.71 points or 0.36% to 22,350.31, Jakarta Composite decreased 42.98 points or 0.81% to 5,265.15 and Shanghai Composite decreased 20.33 points or 0.64% to 3,132.64.