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All eyes are on the Reserve Bank of India’s first monetary policy decision for FY20. Jahangir Aziz, head of EM economic research at JPMorgan, shared his expectations.
“We had been expecting a significant easing since December last year. We got one cut already done, we expect another cut this week and then followed by at least one more cut in the next round,” Aziz told CNBC-TV18.
With regards to a change in the RBI’s stance, Aziz said, “You are making way too much about the wording of the forward guidance being provided by the wording of the monetary policy committee (MPC). Most likely they will probably maintain a neutral language because moving to an accommodative stance would mean giving expectations to the market that there will be significantly more rate cuts coming down the road. My sense is that the MPC will not want to take that risk of providing that kind of an indication to the market.”
“I think it will provide forward guidance that there are no rate cuts to come but it is not the beginning of a significantly long easing cycle,” said Aziz.