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US$ falls in tandem with bonds as Trump rally falters with value buying re emerging in emerging markets

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Major headlines:

·         IATA urges government to defer higher air navigation charges

·         Key equity indices trade higher during early session

·         Australia trade surplus breaks long drought as exports boom














Indian Indices:Asian indices ex Japan were all trading in the green as emerging markets are starting the New Year in fine fettle as proxy to weakness to US$ with the Trump rally seeing profit booking. The US$ weakened sharply to near November 8th levels & in tandem we saw bond yields also fall to 2.36% levels last seen around the US election results.

Nifty broke the 200 DMA @ 8271 & will further exhibit strength on the back of stronger Rupee & buying by foreign investors whose selling has halted & net inflows now very much on the cards. For today expect industrials, banks & oil marketing companies to see buying while tech stocks to be under pressure due to Rupee strength. Weekly close today over the 200 DMA will see bears further scramble for cover.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 26887.19, up by 8.95 points or 0.03% after trading in a range of 26883.78 and 27009.61. There were 19 stocks advancing against 11 stocks declining on the index.The broader indices were trading mixed; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.24%, while Small cap index was down by 0.05%.The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 8270.30, down by 3.50 points or 0.04% after trading in a range of 8270.30 and 8306.85. There were 31 stocks advancing against 20 stocks declining on the index.




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Technical view: Nifty broke above the 200 DMA @ 8271 & needs to sustain today with 8230 acting as support while 8330 will act as resistance. Bank Nifty also closed near the day high & will face resistance @ 18202 which is the 200 DMA while 18000 will act as strong support.


Market Sentiment:

The market breadth on BSE was positive in the ratio of 1131:1047, while 143 scrips remained unchanged.


Trading ideas: INDUSINDBK (Buy above Rs 1129 for target of Rs 1159, SL at Rs 1115): Stock has witnessed a classic double bottom breakout on the daily charts. The breakout coincides with the stock closing above the crucial 50 and 200-DMA. Volumes in yesterday's trade were stellar, and this makes Indusind Bank a perfect price volume breakout counter. We advise to Buy INDUSINDBK above Rs 1129, Stop loss at Rs 1115 and Target of Rs 1159.


MacroeconomicFront: Terming Banks Board Bureau (BBB) has said that consolidation in public sector banks is a long drawn process and it should gather momentum in 2-3 years. Commenting on the issue, Banks Board Bureau Chief VinodRai told the media, "Finance Minister in his Budget speech talked about consolidation of banks. Prime Minister has made references to the idea that there should be 6 or 8 large banks.

Corporate Snippets: Wockhardtsaid German regulator has issued European Union Good Manufacturing Practice certificate to the company’s Ankaleshwar facility in Gujrat.


Tata Motors and Castrol inked a three year agreement under which the lubricants maker would supply commercial vehicle oils to the home grown auto major in over 50 markets, including SAARC and ASEAN reqion, west Asia Africa Russia and latin America.


As many as 10 international offshore drilling contractors including Transocean Inc have offered best in class deepsea drilling rigs to Oil and Natural Gas Crop for its KG-D5 gas field devlopments.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:  The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Bankex up by 0.74%, PSU up by 0.52%, Oil & Gas up by 0.42%, FMCG up by 0.25% and Power up by 0.21%, while IT down by 2.85%, TECK down by 2.30%, Realty down by 0.51% and Metal down by 0.03% were the losing indices on BSE.

Nifty Movers:The top gainers on Nifty were ONGC up by 2.55%, Yes Bank up by 2.36%, Bank of Baroda up by 1.69%, IndusInd Bank up by 1.66% and GAIL India up by 1.19%. On the flip side, HCL Tech down by 4.37%, Tech Mahindra down by 4.13%, TCS down by 3.21%, Infosys down by 2.57% and Wipro down by 2.06% were the top losers.




On the global front: On the global front, Asian shares were trading mostly in green, as a surge in the dollar and its borrowing costs sparked by Donald Trump’s election eased, with the US 10-year yield slipping to one-month lows. In contrast, Japan’s Nikkei, one of the best performers since Republican Trump won the November 8 election, dropped as the yen gained versus the dollar. China raised the exchange rate for the yuan against the US dollar by 0.92 percent from the previous day, the biggest one-day increase in more than 11 years.


Global Signals:The Asian markets were trading mostly in green; Taiwan Weighted increased 4.91 points or 0.05% to 9,363.05, KOSPI Index increased 7.25 points or 0.36% to 2,049.20, FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI increased 8.58 points or 0.52% to 1,668.40, Jakarta Composite increased 13.77 points or 0.26% to 5,339.28 and Hang Seng increased 63.78 points or 0.28% to 22,520.47.On the other hand, Nikkei 225 decreased 77.07 points or 0.39% to 19,443.62 and Shanghai Composite decreased 6.2 points or 0.2% to 3,159.21.