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US $ hits fresh highs as it enters heavily overbought zone with consensus bullishness capping upside!!

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Major headlines:

·         Ratan Tata to step down as chairman of Tata Trusts

·         Oil prices rise as planned oil production cuts start to materialise

·         Asia stocks tepid, dollar near 14-year peak on Fed rally














Indian Indices:  Asian indices opened flat to positive as most currencies adjusted to the renewed bout of strength in the US$. The US$ now looks very heavily overbought as consensus bullishness makes the gains a one way street which could cap the upside in the near term. Oil rallied marginally as US equities flirted with 19500 before profit booking trimmed the gains. Gold continues to test bear market territory & could well be the casualty asset class for 2017. 

Nifty saw a sharp intraday spike as smart money bought the fall closer to 8100. For today expect another day of volatile trade with Rupee weakness hurting sentiment. IT stocks could continue to see buying as under ownership could drive prices higher. Foreign selling as a collateral to US$ strength may continue albeit marginally while value buying of Indian stocks being best bet in the emerging market basket may well be the theme for the next 45 days till the Union budget.   

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 26485.14, down by 33.93 points or 0.13% after trading in a range of 26480.00 and 26594.55. There were 110 stocks advancing against 19 stocks declining on the index. The broader indices were trading in red; the BSE Mid cap index was down by 0.29%, while Small cap index was tad lower by 0.01%.





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Technical view: Nifty finds support around 8100-8120 with 8250 being a strong resistance. Bank Nifty also finds strong support around 18250 while 18650 will act as resistance.


Market Sentiment:

The market breadth on BSE was positive in the ratio of 1021:1016, while 119 scrips remained unchanged.


Trading ideas :    RBLBANK (Buy above Rs 357 for target of Rs 369, SL at Rs 351): Stock has witnessed breakout from a downward sloping trend line connecting highs attempted from first week of Nov 2016. RBL Bank also formed a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily charts with sharp surge in volumes. Stock has also seen RSI crossover from its oversold zone. We advise to Buy RBLBANK above Rs 357, stop loss at Rs 351, and Target of Rs 369.


Macroeconomic Front:    As the government is promoting cashless transactions, the Payment of Wages (Amendment) Bill will amend the 1936 act, which states that payment of wages in cheque or through bank transfer can only be made after taking the employee's permission in writing, said Labour Minister Bandaru Dattatreya.

Corporate Snippets: Bajaj Auto lauched its latest sports bike Dominar 400 priced up to Rs 1.5 lakh as it looks to challenge segment leader Royal Enfield in the Rs 1-2 lakh category.


Cipla subsidiary in the Netherlands will pump in up to euro 16.8 million to form a joint venture with its Iranian distributor Aharan Tejarat Company, The JV proposes to undertake manufacturing and markting of pharmaceutical products in Iran.


Welspun India is investing Rs 600 crore for setting up a facility for manufacturing carpets, area rugs and carpet tiles here, marking the leading global home textile firms foray into flooring solutions segment.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:  The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Consumer Durables up by 0.44%, IT up by 0.39%, TECK up by 0.32% and Auto up by 0.25%, while Metal down by 1.09%, Oil & Gas down by 0.78%, PSU down by 0.63%, FMCG down by 0.52% and Power down by 0.45% were the losing indices on BSE.

Nifty Movers:   The top gainers on Nifty were Tata Motors up by 1.53%, Zee Entertainment up by 1.50%, HDFC up by 1.25%, Bank of Baroda up by 1.16% and Infosys up by 1.07%.
On the flip side, Aurobindo Pharma down by 3.74%, Hindalco down by 2.61%, ONGC down by 2.28%, Sun Pharma down by 1.85% and BHEL down by 1.72% were the top losers.



On the global front:       On the global front, Asian shares were trading mostly in red, after the US Federal Reserve overnight indicated it would raise interest rates faster than expected in 2017. The rate hike in US would lead outflow of money from emerging market equities into US bonds which are considered as safer investment options. This is only for the second time in a decade that the Federal Reserve has raised its rate.


Global Signals:    The Asian markets were trading mostly in red; Taiwan Weighted decreased 20.85 points or 0.22% to 9,339.50, Jakarta Composite decreased 12.57 points or 0.24% to 5,241.79, Hang Seng decreased 9.69 points or 0.04% to 22,049.71, FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI decreased 3.52 points or 0.22% to 1,633.47 and Shanghai Composite decreased 2.17 points or 0.07% to 3,115.51.On the other hand, KOSPI Index increased 3.26 points or 0.16% to 2,039.91 and Nikkei 225 increased 142.11 points or 0.74% to 19,415.90.