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Wall St: Dow Futures tank over 500 points on renewed fears of lockdown, big banks slip

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  • Shares of airlines, hotels and cruise operators lead declines in premarket trading, tracking their European peers as the UK signalled the possibility of a second national lockdown
  • Another round of business restrictions would also threaten a nascent recovery in the wider economy.
  • U.S. stock index futures fell on Monday as surging COVID-19 cases raised fears of more lockdowns, while media reports saying several global banks moved sums of allegedly illicit funds over nearly two decades hit U.S. banking stocks.

    Shares of airlines, hotels and cruise operators led declines in premarket trading, tracking their European peers as the UK signalled the possibility of a second national lockdown.

    Marriott International Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc and Hyatt Hotels Corp dropped between 1.5% and 3.6%, while casino operators Wynn Resorts Ltd, MGM Resorts International and Las Vegas Sands Corp shed between 2.7% and 6.0%.

    Another round of business restrictions would also threaten a nascent recovery in the wider economy, analysts said, and could spark a flight from equities. The first round of lockdowns in March had led the benchmark S&P 500 to suffer its worst monthly decline since the global financial crisis.

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Gold investors take new aim at miners with returns falling short

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A coalition of gold investors, including firms backed by billionaires John Paulson and Naguib Sawiris, is urging changes at miners as performance 'continues to fall short' in some areas even as prices rise.A coalition of gold investors, including firms backed by billionaires John Paulson and Naguib Sawiris, is urging changes at miners as performance “continues to fall short" in some areas even as prices rise.

In an open letter to the mining industry, prominent gold investors including money managers at Franklin Templeton, VanEck Funds and members of the Shareholders’ Gold Council are targeting issues including executive compensation and directors who don’t have enough skin in the game because they don’t hold a meaningful amount of shares in the firms they represent. The signatories offered 16 suggestions to better align the interest of managers, boards and shareholders.

Gold has been on a record-setting tear as the pandemic threatens to derail global economic growth, sending investors on a flight to safe havens. That comes at a time when real yields are falling as governments unleash massive stimulus programs. Precious-metal miners have seen their shares skyrocket with a gauge of senior gold producers climbing almost 80% in the past year.

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Indian markets will be biggest winner irrespective of whoever wins US elections

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With less than two months left for the U.S. presidential election, Asian investors are weighing its potential impact on markets in the region.

India and Japan are emerging as early focal points for analysts, given that benchmark stock gauges in both nations are still down for the year and trailing the 1.9% gain in the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index. Joe Biden has a 75.7% chance of winning, according to the Sept. 17 run of poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model.

In Japan, the performance of the benchmark Topix Index has tended to weaken around the U.S. elections, mainly reflecting increased uncertainty, while the yen has often depreciated after the vote, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

A victory for Donald Trump or Republicans maintaining control of the Senate would reduce policy uncertainty, while a Biden victory and Democrats seizing control of both houses of Congress would likely mean a corporate tax-rate increase or other new policies

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HSBC shares hit 25-year low on report of China 'unreliable list'

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HSBC has tried to stay in Beijing's good graces, vocally backing Hong Kong's national security law, sparking criticism in Washington and London.Shares in banking giant HSBC plunged to a 25-year low Monday on fears it could be added to a Chinese list of firms deemed a threat to national security and following news it had been accused of allowing fraudulent activity to go unpunished.

The troubled lender tanked more than four percent to HK$29.60 at one point -- a level not seen since mid-1995 -- as investors fret over its ability to continue doing business in China and Hong Kong, which make up a crucial portion of its growth.

The sell-off came after the Global Times, a state-run English tabloid in China, reported the bank could be one of the first firms to be named on Beijing's "unreliable entity list" as part of a tit-for-tat stand-off with several western countries.The report pointed to HSBC's participation in Washington's investigation of Huawei and the arrest of its chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou in Canada.

Among penalties that can be meted out include restrictions on trade, investment and visas.

"If the company is listed as an unreliable company by China, which looks certain since it's a Global Times article, the bank will be facing lots of difficulties to do business in China," Banny Lam, at CEB International Investment Corp., told Bloomberg News.



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Gold prices today edge lower, down 5,000 from last month's highs

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Gold prices in India continued to remain in a narrow range in Indian markets. Despite positive global cues, gold prices on MCX fell 0.02% to 51390 per 10 gram amid a stronger rupee. On the other hand, silver gained 0.25% to 68619 per kg. In the previous session, gold futures had risen 0.07% on MCX while silver had slipped 0.12%. Gold is now down about 5,000 per kg from record highs of about 56,200, hit last month.

Similarly, silver prices are now down more than 10,000 per kg in about a month.

In global markets, gold prices moved higher, supported by a weaker US dollar and concerns that a coronavirus vaccine could get delayed. Spot gold rose 0.7% to $1,945.20 per ounce.


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Global investors cautioned of a 'K-shaped' economic recovery much before they realised

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With global equity markets rising and global economic growth steeping falling – forming two forks of a ‘K’ – recently, consensus seems to be building of a ‘K-shaped’ recovery.As the coronavirus crisis unfolded, economists and market participants have been debating about the shape of the global economy. The options that had largely been considered included a U, V, W recovery. Now, with global equity markets rising and global economic growth steeping falling – forming two forks of a ‘K’ – recently, consensus seems to be building of a ‘K-shaped’ recovery.



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RIL shares cross $200 billion market cap

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 Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries Ltd has become India's first company to cross the $200 billion market cap after its shares surged nearly 157% since mid-March. The rise in market value of the oil-to-telecom conglomerate is driven by its retail and telecom operations.

The stock was currently trading at a record high of 2233 on the BSE, up 3.55% from its previous close. On Wednesday, the market value of the stock stood at $201 billion, according to Bloomberg data.

Apple Inc is the world's most-valued company with a market value of $2 trillion followed by Saudi Aramco at $1.91 trillion, Amazon.com Inc $1.58 trillion, Microsoft Corp 1.53 trillion, and Alphabet Inc $1.04 trillion.

In terms of global oil & gas companies, RIL ranks second, after Saudi Aramco.The stock has gained 48.7% so far this year following the sale of its stake in Jio and retail arm.

On Tuesday, California-based private equity fund Silver Lake picked up a 1.75% stake in Reliance Retail Ventures for 7,500 crore, valuing the company at 4.21 trillion, or $57 billion. Mint reported that the retail arm is set to draw additional investments worth $5 billion from KKR and Co., Mubadala Investment Co. and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority.

"Over the last 2-3 months, there has been news flow about RIL being in talks with various strategic partners (global retailers, e-commerce companies), and even in JPL’s case, the entry of strategic partners was a key positive, in our view. Hence, while any stake sale in RRL is positive news, we believe the markets would be more likely to bid up strategic investors than they would bid up PE investments", said JP Morgan in a note to its investors.

Stimulus option on table as govt monitors revival

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  • Centre is paying extra attention to ensure that its planned capital expenditure is executed without any hurdles
  • Modi administration has already raised its borrowings for the current year by 53% to 12 trillion to deal with the humanitarian and economic impact of the coronavirus crisis

A second round of stimulus measures for the economy is on the table, and the central government is closely monitoring how different industries are recovering so that it can support them when needed, a senior government official said.

The Centre is also paying extra attention to ensure that its planned capital expenditure is executed without any hurdles.

The government wants to time any further easing of its purse strings to deliver the maximum impact. It fears that delivering another round of stimulus measures before the coronavirus pandemic has peaked in India won’t provide optimal results.

“We are keeping all options open and are watching the situation closely," the official said on condition of anonymity.

“(We will) keep supporting sections of the industry as and when there is a need," said the official, pointing to the evolving situation. “After all, the pandemic is not yet over. We do not have a vaccine yet," said the official.

By This Measure, China’s Yuan Is Best-Placed Since 2012 Rally

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China’s yuan is flashing the strongest technical signal since 2012 for gains against the U.S. dollar.

The onshore currency’s 50-day moving average has fallen below its 200-day mean, completing the so-called golden cross pattern that some analysts interpret as a sign that a rally will continue. While such crossovers happen frequently, this is the first time in eight years that both moving averages are trending down, a phenomenon some market watchers say signals a true golden cross.

Looking for Carry Trade? Yuan Ranks Among the Best: China Today

The dollar is heading for a fifth month of losses. Meanwhile, China’s success in restarting the economy after the pandemic, the widening of its current-account surplus, its relative yields over dollar assets and foreign inflows are all supportive of further gains for the yuan.

In addition to the golden cross pattern, the currency has broken through a trend line that’s limited its gains since March 2019. The line has now become a support for the Chinese currency -- potentially limiting any losses.

Fiona Lim, a senior currency analyst at Malayan Banking Berhad in Singapore, predicts a stronger yuan and suggests investors look to the trend in the 100-day mean, now that the 50-day and 200-day averages have already completed a cross.

“A decisive break below could see USD/CNH trade lower towards 6.85 levels,” she wrote.

The onshore yuan was trading little changed at 6.9409 on Thursday, holding its gains since May at 3.4%. Its offshore counterpart was at 6.9372.

Look for China’s Yuan to Trade Around 7 a Dollar in 2H, UBS Says

While technicals point to further strengthening, the yuan remains vulnerable to an escalation in U.S.-China tensions. With a discussion imminent on the so-called phase one trade deal between the two nations, the next several days could be a testing time for the currency.

Speaking of EM: Chinese Yuan and Phase One Trade Risks (Podcast)

The yuan capped its last golden cross between the 50-day and 200-day averages in October 2012 when Federal Reserve stimulus stoked capital flows into China. The pattern was followed by an extended advance until January 2014, when a 5.9% rally ended.

Since then, the shorter average fell below the longer average four times -- in 2014, 2017, 2019 and earlier this year. But all of them had a rising 200-day mean, making them weaker signals.

There were also four crossovers between the 100-day and 200-day averages since 2012, but there hasn’t been one with both of them trending down.

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Forex - Dollar Weakens as Politicians Squabble and Inflation Rises

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 The dollar weakened in early European trade Thursday, amid fading hopes for additional economic stimulus while inflation figures surprised to the upside.

At 3 AM ET (0700 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was down 0.3% at 93.157. USD/JPY was down 0.2% at 106.72, GBP/USD rose 0.3% to 1.3066 and EUR/USD was up 0.4% at 1.1826.

Weighing on the greenback has been the inability of the U.S. lawmakers to come to any sort of consensus regarding the country’s latest Covid-19 stimulus package, a deal that many feel is necessary to keep the economic recovery on track.

U.S. President Donald Trump accused Democrats on Wednesday of not wanting to negotiate over the package, with Republican and Democratic negotiators trading barbs and blame as negotiations ended without a result for the fifth day.

 On Tuesday, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated that the economy could take another downturn if U.S. policymakers fail to provide more financial aid. 

He was backed up Wednesday by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren, who said he "strongly" supported taking additional fiscal action to help businesses and households survive the crisis. But, added more spending should be combined with more robust efforts to contain the virus.

U.S. deaths caused by Covid-19 topped 166,000 as of Aug. 13, with confirmed cases rising by more than 4% in the past week, according to data collected by Johns Hopkins University.

Adding to the problems facing the dollar were the latest inflation figures, with strong numbers from both the consumer and producer sides.

"The 0.6% month-on-month increase in July core CPI was jaw dropping," Jefferies (NYSE:JEF) said in a note. "It was the largest sequential jump since January 1991. While this momentum in pricing is unlikely to be sustained, the strength was broad-based and cannot be ignored."

With the Federal Reserve already committed to keeping its benchmark rates at these very lows for some time, the pressure is building on U.S. real yields.

“Much discussed in financial markets this summer is the drop in U.S. real yields as the Fed keeps rates low, while U.S. inflation expectations are on the rise,” said Chris Turner at ING, in a research note to clients.

“Expect this macro-policy theme to play a major role in FX market pricing ahead of a possible Fed adoption of an average inflation target in September. This theme is a broad dollar negative.”


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