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Sharetipsinfo Research report 11-12-2017

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Topic :- Share Market Closing Note


Equity benchmarks ended higher for third consecutive session as investors await Federal Reserve policy decision and exit poll on Gujarat assembly elections.



The 30-share BSE Sensex was up 205.49 points at 33,455.79 and the 50-share NSE Nifty gained 56.60 points at 10,322.30.


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Topic :- Time:3.05 PM



Nifty spot is trading at 10320. If it manages to close above 10300 level then further more upmove is expected in the market in coming trading sessions and if it closes below above mentioned level then some sluggish movement is expected. Avoid open sell positions for tomorrow.


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Topic :- Time:2.40 PM


COPPER Trading View:

COPPER is trading at 426.60. if it holds above 424.50 level then expect some quick upmove in it and if it breaks and trade below 424.60-424 levels then copper is likely to decline further. 


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Topic :- Time:1.55 PM


Just In:

Rs 40,000-crore development projects in limbo in Andhra.


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Topic :- Time:1.40 PM


SILVER Trading View:

SILVER is trading at 37070. It will find its immediate support at 36850. If it manages to hold above it then expect some quick upmove in it and it is likely to test 37470 level quite soon. Buy on every decline till it holds above 36850 is recommended in it.


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Topic :- Time:1.00 PM


Nifty spot is trading at 10294. If it manages to trade and sustain above 10320 level then expect some quick upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 10260 level then some softness can follow in the market.


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Topic :- Time:12.30 PM


CRUDEOIL Trading View:

CRUDEOIL is trading at 3683. If it manages to trade and sustain above 3685 level then expect some quick upmove in it and is likely to test 3720 level quite soon and if it breaks and trade below 3670 level then some softness can be seen in it.


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Topic :- Time:12.20 PM


Just In:

RBI - To Permit Overseas Branches Of Indian Banks To Refinance Ecbs Of Aaa Rated Corporates As Well As Navratna, Maharatna Psus, By Raising Fresh Ecbs.


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Topic :- Time:12.20 PM


Nifty is trading flat and is not showing any major movement. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 10300 level then expect some quick upmove and if it breaks and trade below 10270 level then some softness can be seen in the Nifty.


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Topic :- Time:11.30 AM


News Wrap up:

1. Sensex up 150 pts, Nifty regains 10,300; Airtel top gainer

2. Fresh round of finger-pointing looms over Infosys 

3. Nov inflation likely exceeded RBIs 4 pc target: Poll

4. Railways revenue likely to rise 10% to Rs 1.8 lakh crore

5. Reliance retail plans to expand B2B play

6. Modis famous Gujarat model is facing a serious existential crisis

7. Mukesh Ambani has driven 45% of India Incs capex since FY14

8. Unitech shares rise 20% as NCLT allows govt to appoint 10 directors

9. 5 yrs after Food Security Act, poor Indians to get millets at Rs 1/kg

10. UltraTech Cement gains on board nod for expansion, increase in FII limit.


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Topic :- Time:11.00 AM


After positive opening nifty is trading flat. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 10320 level then expect some quick upmove and if it breaks and trade below 10250 level then some softness can be seen in the Nifty.


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Topic :- Nifty Opening Note


Indian Stock Market Trading  View For 11 Dec,2017:


Upcoming week is expected to be a volatile week with lot of swings. Good stock specific movement expected overall.


Nifty to trade volatile and is likely to follow global cues.


Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 10290 level then expect some upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 10220 level then some softness can be seen in the Nifty. Please note this is just opening view and should not be considered as the view for the whole day.


India's economy expected to grow at 7.5% in 2018:Nomura

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Global investment bank Nomura has predicted India's economy to register a 7.5 per cent growth rate in 2018, saying it is on the cusp of a cyclical recovery.

India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth bottomed-out in the second quarter of 2017 at 5.7 per cent year-on-year, rising to 6.3 per cent in the third quarter, it said.

It has forecast 6.7 per cent in the fourth quarter and a full-year growth of 6.2 per cent this year, rising to 7.5 per cent in 2018, it said.

"We remain bullish on India's macroeconomic outlook," Nomura said in its Asian economic outlook 2018.

The Indian economy is on the cusp of a cyclical recovery and the government has continued to implement structural reforms and prudent macro policies, the tangible benefits of which may be harder to pinpoint right now, but over time will be positive for growth, it said in the report.

Higher crude oil prices and state election results are the main risks, it said.

Given the base effects, Nomura expects the growth in the first half of 2018 to be at 7.8 per cent, higher than the 7.1 per cent of the second half of 2017.

"Further out, we expect a growth of 7.3 per cent in 2019 – a solid print, aided by manufacturing and private services on the supply side and investment and private consumption on the demand side," the report said.

It listed out factors supporting a strong growth.

It would be the normalisation of Goods and Services Tax- related supply disruptions; the positive effects of bank recapitalisation, a positive remonetisation impulse and a positive fiscal impulse.

The GST council was addressing the supply disruption concerns, it said.

The council has raised the eligibility limit under the composition scheme, extended the dates for filing returns, disbursed pending refunds, allowed duty-free sourcing of materials for export until March 2018 and lowered GST rates.

As a result, Nomura said it expected small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to ramp up production, exporters to benefit from the stronger global export upcycle, import substitution to reverse and growth to jumpstart.

"2018 should be 2017 in reverse," it pointed out.

The government's comprehensive recapitalisation plan (recap) for public sector banks (PSBs) worth Rs 2.11 trillion (1.3 per cent of the GDP) in financial year 2018 (year ending March 2018) and financial year 2019 should enable the process of balance-sheet deleveraging.

The resolution of non-performing assets (NPAs) was slow as a lack of capital dissuaded public sector banks from writing off bad loans.

But as these are now being written off, firms' excess leverage should decline, setting the stage for a capex revival over time, according to the report.

Additionally, Nomura estimates that Rs 700-750 billion of the recap package will be available as growth capital, which should enable banks to extend additional loans worth 7.3 to 8.3 per cent of outstanding credit (assuming a leverage ratio of 8-9x).

This should ensure sufficient funding for borrowers with no leverage (consumers), where reforms are ongoing (public capex projects) and ensure it is not denied to those in need (SMEs), it said.

The reflationary effects of remonetisation are yet to be seen.

It estimates that real M1 money supply growth will rebound from a contraction of 5.3 per cent year-on-year for the 12-month period ending September 2017 to growth of 13.2 per cent for the year ending September 2018.

Changes in real M1 growth lead changes in real non- agriculture GDP growth by around one to two quarters as it captures transaction demand for money.

Hence, the expected jump in real M1 money supply should boost non-agriculture GDP growth, especially in the first half of 2018.

"We expect cash-intensive sectors such as manufacturing, construction, real estate, trade, transport, hotels and communications to benefit most," Nomura added.

India November inflation likely exceeded RBI's 4% target: Reuters Poll

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India's retail inflation likely breached the central bank's 4.0 percent medium-term target in November after unseasonably heavy rains sent food prices soaring, a Reuters poll showed.

In the poll of more than 30 economists, annual consumer inflation, due to be released on Dec. 12 at 1200 GMT, was seen surging to a 13-month high of 4.20 percent in November from October's 3.58 percent.

The higher inflation rate is unlikely to push the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to change its key rate any time soon, economists in the poll said.

November's heavy rains "created lots of damage" for perishable fruit and vegetable crops, said Rupa Rege Nitsure, group chief economist at Larsen & Toubro. "We have seen that translated into price rises for onions, tomatoes and other perishable commodities".

Increased house rent allowances for government employees and rising crude oil prices added to inflationary pressures alongside higher raw material costs due to the Goods and Services Tax (GST) rollout, she said.

Wholesale prices are expected to have risen 3.78 percent last month from a year earlier, compared to a 3.59 percent rise in October.

NEUTRAL STANCE

At its Dec. 6 policy meeting, the central bank raised its inflation projection by 10 basis points to between 4.3 and 4.7 percent for the six months ending in March. It kept interest rates steady and stressed a neutral policy stance.

The RBI cut rates by 200 basis points from January 2015 until August this year while food and energy prices were down. It is likely to keep them unchanged through the end of 2018, according to a separate Reuters poll.

"Interest rates will remain stable for some time before they (the RBI) start hiking them because industrial growth is still weak," Nitsure said. "Recovery is happening in a few sectors but it has not spread to all sectors and private investment sentiment also remains low."

Industrial output growth eased to 3.0 percent in October from September's 3.8 percent, as demand continued to suffer from disruption caused by the new national sales tax as well as last year's currency clampdown that wiped out over 85 percent of the cash in circulation.

But halting a five-quarter slide, India's economic growth rebounded in the three months ending in September with businesses starting to overcome troubles from implementation of the new tax.

"We still have some output gap but it's not as bad as it used to be a couple of quarters back. It will not make any sense for the RBI to just react to the (inflation) number. They also have to look at other factors," said Arun Singh, lead economist at Dun & Bradstreet India in Mumbai.

The poll also showed India's trade deficit likely narrowed to $13.75 billion last month from October's near three-year high of $14.02 billion.

Need to bring losses below 15% for 24X7 power: R K Singh

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Power and New & Renewable Energy Minister R K Singh today urged his states' counterparts to bring electricity distribution losses below 15 per cent to ensure 24X7 power for all by 2019.

Singh also asked them to roll out the Saubhagya scheme in their states to provide power connections to 4 crore families by December, 2018.

"We have reduced the distribution (aggregate technical and commercial) losses. It is necessary to achieve 24X7 power for all by 2019," Singh said.

He said this while inaugurating the conference of 'Ministers for Power and New & Renewable Energy of States & Union Territories' here.

He further said: "We are going to add 4 crore more subscribers under the Saubhagya scheme. Thus, with increase in supplies, leakages would further increase. We cannot continue to set off these losses using taxpayers' money."

The minister said there are 16 to 17 states, which are incurring distribution losses more than 15 per cent.

On the Saubhagya scheme, he said: "We are going to do it by December 2018. We have to do it. We have provided over Rs 90,000 crore from 9th Five Year Plan onwards to strengthen the system in states. We are providing funds under various schemes."

At present, all states have not submitted their proposals under the scheme. The proposal would have to come from states to seek funds. The Centre has provided Rs 16,320 crore under the scheme.

Talking about the renewables, Singh said clean energy would edge out fossil fuels, particularly petroleum, which is strategically in favour of India in view of huge imports.

The minister also spoke about the Centre's hydro policy which is aimed at reviving the stranded projects and assured states to push this clean source of energy which can become base load to replace thermal power. 

Large companies dominate IIT placements, startups not on top of list

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The placement season at the Indian Institutes of Technologies (IITs) across the country saw a dominance of large companies and multinational corporations among the top recruiters. While e-commerce wasn’t shunned, the numbers remained low.

Across IIT campuses, IT companies as well as core software firms recruited a large number of students. As per information from the placement committees of the institutes, Goldman Sachs, Microsoft, ITC were among top companies visiting the campuses on the first day. There was also a significant increase in international offers.

“We have not taken too many startups considering their past history. Only the top four to five companies in the e-commerce space are being called so that students are not inconvenienced by offers revoked or delays in joining dates. Further, there has also been a crackdown on fake companies,” said a senior placement official at one of the IITs.

At IIT Bombay, on day three more than 100 offers were rolled out of which 7 were for International roles. Top recruiting firms on Day 3 (for domestic roles) were Cleanmax, Citi, Robert Bosch, SAP Labs. For the first 3 days, IIT-B got total 47 international offers and including the pre-placement offers (PPOs) the overall count is 60 as compared to the last year count of 50.

According to the placement team at IIT-B, international offers (for Day 1-3) went up by almost 20 percent this year because of increase in the number of US offers while the rest of it can be associated with the increased participation of Japanese firms.

Similarly, IIT Roorkee saw over 400 offers (including PPOs) handed out to students this year. The Institute received 274 offers on Day 1 and Day 2 taking the total tally this season to over 400 offers. The institute received 13 international offers from Microsoft Redmond, Webstaff and Mercari.

A total of 274 offers have been made so far on the first 2 days of the placement season. Out of these, 92 were core sectors and 182 were non- core sectors offers. Some of the companies which have visited the campus for placements so far are Microsoft, Goldman Sachs, Mercari, Uber, Tower Research, Schlumberger, ISRO, ONGC, Webstaff, Qualcomm, Oracle, Flipkart, Walmart, JP Morgan, Samsung, among others.

NP Padhy, Placement In-charge, IIT Roorkee said, “This is a tremendous start to the placement season. This is one of the best starts and we hope to capitalize on it and end on a new high.” Their graveyard session saw participation of 9 companies and 315 students sat through the session for placements. Goldman Sachs, Microsoft, Uber, Tower Research, Schlumberger, ISRO, Webstaff, ONGC, and ITC were part of the graveyard session.

Last year, IIT Bombay had blacklisted nine companies for one year including GPSK, IndusInsight Portea Medical and Peppertap for issues related to offer revoked, joining delayed and companies being fake. IITs as a whole had blacklisted about 31 companies in 2016 for similar reasons.

Among others, IIT Madras received 195 offers on the first day. Last year (2016-17), IIT Madras saw 27 companies making 160 offers on day one.

At IIT Madras, the total number of international offers have also increased. This year saw 11 international offers (9 offers in Session 1.1 & 2 offers in Session 1.2) on Day One as compared to 3 international offers received last year (2016-17).

Here too, companies that made more than 10 offers this year (2017-18) are EXL Services, Goldman Sachs, Microsoft, and Samsung Research Institute Bangalore.

Startups and e-commerce companies plan their expansion and hiring strategies based on the funds received from their investors. Any delay or aberration in the same has resulted in sudden changes in the hiring plans in the last few years, due to which the institutes have remained cautious.

In 2017 too, while no lists were officially released on banning some companies from IIT campuses, placement officials said that they have unofficial names of companies who haven't been invited to the institutes, including mid-size fintech and health startups.

Coffee exports rise 8% in January-November

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Coffee exports from India, Asia's third-largest producer and exporter, rose by 8.08 per cent to 3.61 lakh tonnes in January-November 2017 compared to 3.34 lakh tonnes in the same period of last year, according to the Coffee Board.

Italy, Germany and Russia were the major export destinations for Indian coffee during the period. India ships both robusta and Arabica varieties, besides instant coffee. Robusta coffee exports rose by 10.80 per cent to 2,11,442 tonnes in January-November 2017 from 1,90,828 tonnes in the year-ago, the board dats showed.

Export of Arabica coffee however declined by 10.81 per cent to 44,084 tonnes from 49,431 tonnes in the said period.

The outbound shipment of instant coffee increased sharply by 86 per cent to 47,734 tonnes in January-November this year from 22,966 tonnes in the same period last year, the data showed.

Of the total exports, India exported 73,705 tonnes to Italy, 38,671 tonnes to Germany and 26,319 tonnes to Russia during the period under review.

Some of the major exporting companies include CCL Products India, Tata Coffee, Olam Agro and Coffee Day Global Ltd.

Coffee production had declined by 10.34 per cent to 3.12 lakh tonnes in 2016-17 crop year (October-September).

Mid-term review of foreign trade policy to be out on Tuesday

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The government will unveil the much-awaited mid-term review of the foreign trade policy on Tuesday, which among other things would address exporters' woes with an aim to arrest the declining trend of shipments.

Exporters have been voicing concerns about challenges on account of the implementation of GST, even suggesting that they be kept out of the ambit of the new indirect tax regime and the drawback refund be expedited as it was blocking their working capital.

The mid-term review of the foreign trade policy (FTP) was earlier supposed to be released before July 1, in line with the introduction of the goods and services tax (GST). However, it was put off as the government wanted to factor in the feedback from exporters based on their experience of the implementation of GST.

"The Directorate General of Foreign Trade (Headquarters), New Delhi, will remain functional on 2-3 December 2017 (Saturday and Sunday) for preparatory work relating to release of Mid-Term Review of FTP," the DGFT said in an office order. It directed all the officers and officials of DGFT Headquarters to attend office on Saturday and Sunday.

Exports entered the negative terrain after over a year, contracting 1.12 per cent in October, primarily due to liquidity problem being faced by exporters following rollout of GST.

The five-year FTP was announced on April 1, 2015, and set an ambitious target of India's goods and services exports touching USD 900 billion by 2020. It also aimed at increasing India's share of world exports to 3.5 per cent, from 2 per cent.

Mid-term review of foreign trade policy to be out on Tuesday

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The government will unveil the much-awaited mid-term review of the foreign trade policy on Tuesday, which among other things would address exporters' woes with an aim to arrest the declining trend of shipments.

Exporters have been voicing concerns about challenges on account of the implementation of GST, even suggesting that they be kept out of the ambit of the new indirect tax regime and the drawback refund be expedited as it was blocking their working capital.

The mid-term review of the foreign trade policy (FTP) was earlier supposed to be released before July 1, in line with the introduction of the goods and services tax (GST). However, it was put off as the government wanted to factor in the feedback from exporters based on their experience of the implementation of GST.

"The Directorate General of Foreign Trade (Headquarters), New Delhi, will remain functional on 2-3 December 2017 (Saturday and Sunday) for preparatory work relating to release of Mid-Term Review of FTP," the DGFT said in an office order. It directed all the officers and officials of DGFT Headquarters to attend office on Saturday and Sunday.

Exports entered the negative terrain after over a year, contracting 1.12 per cent in October, primarily due to liquidity problem being faced by exporters following rollout of GST.

The five-year FTP was announced on April 1, 2015, and set an ambitious target of India's goods and services exports touching USD 900 billion by 2020. It also aimed at increasing India's share of world exports to 3.5 per cent, from 2 per cent.

Dharmendra Pradhan pitches for including gas in GST

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Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan today made a strong case for inclusion of natural gas in the Goods and Services Tax, saying that if polluting coal can be included, then the environment-friendly fuel certainly deserves a place in the new regime.

"Coal has been included and levied with 5 per cent tax but gas is outside GST, how fair is that," he said at the KMPG Energy Summit here.

Crude oil, petrol, diesel, aviation turbine fuel (ATF) or jet fuel and natural gas are not included in GST, which has amalgamated over a dozen indirect taxes including excise duty, service tax and VAT since it kicked in from July 1.

Hence, while various goods and services procured by the oil and gas industry are subjected to GST, the sale and supply of oil, gas and petroleum products continue to attract earlier taxes like excise duty and VAT.

Unlike other industries which can take credit for any tax paid towards the furtherance of business, no credits on input GST will be available to the oil and gas industry leading to the huge additional indirect tax burden.

Pradhan's ministry had previously written to the Finance Ministry to consider including natural gas in GST.

Industry body Ficci has also pitched for the inclusion of natural gas in the new indirect tax regime so as to help producers contain cost and aid in moving towards a gas-based economy.

In a letter to Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, Ficci said that keeping natural gas out of the GST is causing hardships and having an adverse impact on the producers as it is increasing their costs.

Gas sales including CNG and piped gas supplies attract VAT ranging from 5-12 per cent.

It's a two way street: US drug cos should follow Indian norms like we do abroad

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Earlier this year the NPPA (National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority) capped prices of stents to end exploitative pricing and vulgar profiteering.

Data collected by NPPA  showed that cardiovascular stents were being sold by hospitals at extremely high markups (for example, 436 percent for bare metal stents and 654 percent in the case of drug eluting stents, on average).

It is ironic that whereas on one side the whole world is applauding government’s huge step of price cap towards making essential medical products available across the country at affordable prices, on the other side three US MNCs namely Abbott, Boston and Medtronic are trying to arm-twist the Indian government to reverse its decision on price cap of medical devices in India and creating fault lines between India and US relations.

The first bogey raised by these importer MNCs was their products demanded differential higher pricing when it was being decided that stents are an essential medicine and price capping was inevitable. However, they were unable to demonstrate superiority and clinical benefits to patients between their own brands and other equivalent Indian brands to the NLEM committee appointed by Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

Post price caps the importers protested against the unreasonably low price caps and claimed that this action would be harmful to patients as this move would deny access to innovative medical devices, hurt manufacturing in India and discourage FDI in medical devices sector.

This was blatant misinformation as NPPA and IMA  had clearly spelled out that differential pricing for a new range of stents could be considered in future subject to claims of superior technology to be backed by clinical data. The bogey went bust when Abbott Vascular, one of the US manufacturers who was asked by USFDA (US Food and Drug Administration), EU Regulators, TGA-Government of Australia and also by Drugs Controller General of India to withdraw their absorb bioabsorbable stent on charges of public safety concerns, since the absorb proved to carry higher side effects for the patients in terms of stent thrombosis globally.

The price cap has resulted in simultaneously boosting domestic medical devices manufacturing, increasing the market size due to higher affordable access.

When they realised India was being firm and relentless it is shocking to see how US MNCs are lobbying with the USTR for using threat of access to the US market by Indian exporters to suspend or withdraw Indian exporters' import duty benefits under generalised system of preference (GSP) to arm twist the Indian government in creating differential pricing for US FDA approved stents. The facts are that it’s the Indian medical device manufacturers who face discrimination in India and in USA. Every country encourages indigenous products as they would contribute to low dependence on the imported products but the Indian stent manufacturers were challenged in our own country. There were many government tenders where the Indian companies couldn’t participate as the same had unfair specifications demanding a USFDA approved product.

The US has TBT — technical barriers to trade —  under USFDA, while these are near non-existent in India for US device companies.

Indian manufacturers are barred from selling to the US government-funded health programmes and defense as India is not listed in their TAA (Trade Agreement Act).

India's medical device manufacturers are also discriminated against as the US has a ‘buy American’ policy. No such government support exists in India for domestic medical device manufacturers.

USFDA has increased registration charges by 33 percent to 126 percent from 2018. This makes it very expensive for Indian manufacturers/exporters to register for USA as applicable fees for 510K registration is USD 10,566 for each product compared to USD 4,690 each in 2017 and premarket approval for high risk device is at USD 310,764,  up from  USD 234,495. So a manufacturer would need to be exporting and selling at least 50 to 100 times that values to justify absorbing such high costs.

The big question is should India bow to such threats to access the US market by group of three US MNC lobbies when the US is itself suffering from the highest healthcare costs in the world.

We call on the government of India to uphold the constitutional obligation on right to health and reject any pressure to review reasonable price controls on medical devices.

We ask that reasonable price controls are urgently expanded to cover 19 additional categories of medical devices classified as drugs.

We request the US government to investigate the unethical trade practices of US medical device companies indulge in India, which gives a bad name to USA. Such misinformation has the potential to harm excellent relationships between world’s largest two democracies.

We request Indian government and CCI to expedite its investigation on reported anti competitive practices in healthcare.

If they have to sell in India they have to respect Indian laws and regulations same as we do when we sell to EU/USA and other countries.

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