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US stocks fell to 2 month lows as bond yields slumped while Gold continues to see safe haven buying.

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Indian Indices: Asian indices opened on a mixed note with Australia and Japan opening in the green after seeing losses for the last 3 days. The other markets continued to see weakness as US indices closed in the red after triple digit losses on the Dow Jones. Oil prices fell along with US bond yields while Gold continued to witness protection buying.


Nifty closed flat after seeing narrow movements through the session with 9100 being the key. Bank Nifty drifted lower as PSU banks saw selling accentuate after seeing a big rally last week. For today expect OMC and Energy stocks to see buying while Banks and Financials may continue to see profit booking.


The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 29425.80, up by 89.23 points or 0.30% after trading in a range of 29341.68 and 29442.24. There were 16 stocks advancing against 14 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.67%, while Small cap index was up by 0.91%.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 9133.50, up by 30.00 points or 0.33% after trading in a range of 9102.65 and 9135.95. There were 33 stocks advancing against 18 stocks declining on the index

MARKET INDICATORS

·           

 

Group ATopGainers

 

 

Company

Price (Rs)

% chg

Indiacem

191.95

10.00

Sobha

391.00

6.93

NLCINDIA

107.15

5.20

Oberoirlty

403.00

5.53

Group ATopLosers

 

 

Yesbank

1552.00

-3.33

Hathway

43.50

-3.12

IRB

248.60

-1.78

Powergrid

207.05

-1.94

INDEX PERFORMANCE

 

 

Indices

Support

Resistanes

Sensex

29170

29850

Nifty

9060

9260

 

Technical view: Nifty finds strong support @ 9075 which was the low for yesterday while 9150 will act as resistance on the upside. Bank Nifty also sees support @ 21470 while 21700 will act as resistance on the upside. Any breach and close below 9075 and 21470 will accentuate the fall on both indices.

 

 

JISLJALEQS (Buy Above 108 for Target of 116, Stop Loss at 104.5):Jain Irrigation has broken out from an inverse head and shoulder pattern on the daily charts. The stock has convincingly sustained above the 50-DMA. Other momentum oscillators indicate strength in the current up move. The breakout was also accompanied with highest ever daily volumes witnessed in the stock over the past few years. We advise to Buy JISJALEQS above Rs 108, Stop Loss at Rs 104.5 and Target of Rs 116.


Derivative Snippets

In the last trading session, Nifty ended on a lacklustre note. Bank Nifty 20APR2017 expiry ATM/OTM call and put option strikes were under selling pressure, indicating of a range bound close to the weekly expiry contracts..

FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs 673 Cr. FII’s index future long/short ratio at 2.4x v/s 2.7x. Long positions to the tune of ~33k contracts were created in index put options.

 

Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were GAIL India up by 4.37%, Grasim Industries up by 3.51%, HDFC up by 2.52%, Bank of Baroda up by 2.29% and ONGC up by 1.53%.

On the flip side, Yes Bank down by 3.72%, ICICI Bank down by 1.80%, Axis Bank down by 1.59%, Tata Power down by 0.76% and NTPC down by 0.64% were the top losers.

 

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening: The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Realty up by 1.49%, Consumer Durables up by 1.17%, Basic Materials up by 1.04%, PSU up by 0.76% and Oil & Gas up by 0.63%, while Bankex down by 0.34% was the sole loser on BSE.The top gainers on the Sensex were GAIL India up by 4.12%, HDFC up by 2.54%, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone up by 1.50%, ONGC up by 1.45% and HDFC Bank up by 1.03%.

 

 

 

On the global front: On the global front, Asian shares were trading mostly in green, as signs of resilience emerged in some markets, while steadying commodity prices - especially for oil - prompted some bargain hunting among investors. Japan reported that March exports rose 12% on year, against a 6% increase projected by analysts for the fourth consecutive month of gains, while imports rose 15.8%, well above the 10.4% increase seen. The trade surplus came in at 615 billion yen, wider than the 576 billion yen increase seen.

 

Global Signals:The Asian markets were trading mostly in green; FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI increased 2.34 points or 0.13% to 1,741.29, KOSPI Index increased 9.87 points or 0.46% to 2,148.27, Nikkei 225 increased 64.01 points or 0.35% to 18,496.21 and Hang Seng increased 101.26 points or 0.43% to 23,927.14.On the other hand, Taiwan Weighted decreased 6.43 points or 0.07% to 9,633.51, Jakarta Composite decreased 5.68 points or 0.1% to 5,600.83 and Shanghai Composite decreased 1.49 points or 0.05% to 3,169.20.

 

US indices fall in tandem with global weakness as UK elections, metals selloff gathers momentum. Gold, Yen see defensive buying as investors turn cautious.

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Indian Indices: Asian indices opened weak in tandem with the European selloff, which saw the Dow Jones also close lower by over 120 points. LME weakness in UK followed by the snap decision of elections saw the British Pound rally smartly, which hurt equities with metals leading on the way down. For today expect caution to be the buzzword as currencies, bond yields and equities chart out the course for the remainder of April with 'risk off' trade gathering momentum.


Nifty saw a very sharp intraday reversal and closed in the red after being up over 70 points during the morning session. The selloff was led by foreign investors as global cues turned weak and Nifty failed to sustain even the previous day's low. Mid-caps led the fall with further correction on the cards today also.


The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 29351.15, up by 32.05 points or 0.11% after trading in a range of 29241.48 and 29373.55. There were 18 stocks advancing against 12 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.48%, while Small cap index was up by 0.48%.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 9113.55, up by 8.40 points or 0.09% after trading in a range of 9079.50 and 9120.50. There were 31 stocks advancing against 20 stocks declining on the index.

MARKET INDICATORS

·           

 

Group ATopGainers

 

 

Company

Price (Rs)

% chg

Cesc

907.85

5.67

MRPL

121.65

5.55

Hathway

39.30

4.94

RTNPower

9.02

4.52

Group ATopLosers

 

 

Nationlum

68.65

-6.54

Jindalstel

114.00

-4.00

Polaris

218.00

-3.11

NLCIndia

102.00

-2.67

INDEX PERFORMANCE

 

 

Indices

Support

Resistanes

Sensex

29170

29850

Nifty

9060

9260

 

Technical view: Nifty finds strong support @ 9050 with 9150 now acting as strong resistance on the upside. Bank Nifty also finds 21750 as the hurdle on the upside while 21500 will act as support.

 

 

BPCL (Sell April Future Below 725, for Target of 703 and Stop Loss at 736): The stock has formed a Doji as well as a shooting star kind of a candle stick pattern indicating uncertainty in the current trend. If BPCL slips below previous day’s low we expect a fresh bout of downside pressure on the stock. Momentum indicators also suggest exhaustion at current juncture, which further accentuates our bearish stance on the stock for short term.


Derivative Snippets

In the last trading session, Nifty ended on a negative note as the closing hour selling pressure weigh in. Nifty OTM call option strikes witnessed continued short selling, while short covering was seen in ATM/OTM put option strikes, indicating of a further correction up to the support zone of 9050 levels.

FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs 931 Cr.

FII’s index future long/short ratio at 2.7x. Long positions to the tune of ~18k contracts were created in index put options.

 

Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were Tata Power up by 3.53%, Power Grid up by 2.87%, BhartiInfratel up by 2.51%, NTPC up by 2.01% and Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone up by 1.91%. On the flip side, Indiabulls Housing down by 1.58%, Axis Bank down by 1.34%, TCS down by 0.75%, Bosch down by 0.68% and Infosys down by 0.56% were the top losers.

 

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening: The gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Utilities up by 1.79%, Power up by 1.76%, Basic Materials up by 0.55%, Metal up by 0.52% and Industrials up by 0.43%, while IT down by 0.35%, Bankex down by 0.26%, TECK down by 0.16% and Oil & Gas down by 0.02% were the losing indices on BSE.

 

 

On the global front: On the global front, Asian markets were trading mostly higher on Tuesday as tensions over the situation on the Korean Peninsula softened somewhat following U.S. Vice President Mike Pence's departure from South Korea for Japan. While weak commodity prices weighed on resources stocks, strong post-Easter finish on Wall Street provided upward momentum. In overnight trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index advanced 0.9%, while S&P500 index rose 0.86% and Nasdaq Composite index gained 0.89%.

 

Global Signals:The Asian markets were trading mostly in red; Hang Seng decreased 140.73 points or 0.59% to 23,783.81, Taiwan Weighted decreased 114.11 points or 1.17% to 9,632.45, Shanghai Composite decreased 35.92 points or 1.12% to 3,160.79, KOSPI Index decreased 7.61 points or 0.35% to 2,140.85 and FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI decreased 1.54 points or 0.09% to 1,739.06.On the other hand, Nikkei 225 increased 7.05 points or 0.04% to 18,425.64 and Jakarta Composite increased 29.03 points or 0.52% to 5,606.52.

 

Weekly Nifty Trading View for the Week April 16, 2017–April 23, 2017

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Events to watch this week

  • Trump may nominate Yellen to second term

  • Geopolitical tensions rise

  • Four candidates in French presidential mix

  • Fed chair: Economy healthy now

  • Canadian central bank head warns on house prices

The Week ahead:

  • China reports GDP, retail sales and industrial production on Monday, 17 April

  • The United States releases industrial production data on Tuesday, 18 April

  • The eurozone releases its consumer price index on Wednesday, 19 April

  • The Fed’s Beige Book is published on Wednesday, 19 April

  • The United Kingdom reports retail sales data on Friday, 21 April

  • US existing home sales data are released on Friday, 21 April

For the week,Global equities dipped this week with the intensification of geopolitical jitters over rising tensions on the Korean peninsula and the possibility of a stronger US commitment to oust Syria’s Russian-backed leader Bashar al-Assad. A safe-haven bid pushed the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note down to its lowest point of the year at 2.25%. Oil prices continued their rebound, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising to $53.25 from $52 a week ago. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility index, jumped to 16 from 12.8 last week.


NIFTY- 9,150.80
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,423 barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,418 gram
Rs/$-Rs 64.41

MARKET ROUND UP 
Indian equity markets registered modest losses in the week ended Thursday, 13 April 2017, weighed by weak global cues. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex lost 245.16 points or 0.82% to settle at 29,461.45. The Nifty 50 index fell 47.50 points or 0.51% to settle at 9,150.80. 

The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.82%. The BSE Small-Cap index advanced 1.36%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex. 
Domestic bourses remain shut on Friday, 14 April 2017, on account of Dr. Baba SahebAmbedkarJayanti and Good Friday. 
Sentiment in global markets remained subdued during the week as investors were cautious amid geopolitical tensions in Syria and North Korea. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson met with the Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov to discuss the civil war in Syria and nuclear capabilities of North Korea. In recent days, the trading mood has been dented by heightened geopolitical tensions. 

Key benchmark indices suffered modest losses on Wednesday, 12 April 2017, amid volatile session of trade ahead of the release of key domestic economic data later in the day. The Sensex fell 144.87 points or 0.49% to settle at 29,643.48, its lowest closing level since 10 April 2017.

Key benchmark indices wrapped the trading week with moderate losses on Thursday, 13 April 2017, as sentiment was subdued after domestic data showed that industrial production contracted in February and consumer price inflation edged up in March. The Sensex declined 182.03 points or 0.61% to settle at 29,461.45, its lowest closing level since 28 March 2017. 

Macro Economic Front: 
On the Economic Front,industrial production declined 1.2% in February 2017 over February 2016, snapping 3.3% growth recorded in January 2017. The manufacturing sector's production dipped 2% in February 2017, mainly contributing to the dip in industrial production. 

The inflation based on consumer price index (CPI) increased to 3.81% in March 2017 (new base 2012=100), compared with 3.65% in February 2017. The CPI and IIP data was announced after market hours on Wednesday, 12 April 2017. 

Major Action &Announcement:
BhartiAirtel was down 1.15%. The company said its DTH arm Airtel Digital TV launched Internet TV India's first hybrid STB, powered by Android TV, which brings the best of online content to the TV screen along with a bouquet of over 500 plus satellite TV channels. The announcement was made during market hours on Wednesday, 12 April 2017.

Tata Motors declined 3.22%. The company said group global wholesales including Jaguar Land Rover rose 9% at 1.29 lakh units in March 2017 over March 2016. Global wholesales of all Tata Motors' commercial vehicles and Tata Daewoo range fell 6% at 42,596 units in March 2017 over March 2016.

Maruti Suzuki India lost 2.79%. The company said its total production rose 10.29% to 1.53 lakh units in March 2017 over March 2016. The announcement was made after market hours on Friday, 7 April 2017. 

L&T fell 0.5%. The company said the power transmission and distribution business of L&T Construction has won its single largest order in the Middle East from their esteemed customer Kahramaa' - Qatar General Electricity & Water Corporation - for its ongoing Qatar Electricity Transmission Network Expansion Plan-Phase XIII. 

NTPC declined 1.85%. The company said that Bangladesh India Friendship Power Company (BIFPCL), a 50:50 joint venture company between NTPC and Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) has achieved financial closure on 10 April 2017 to set up 1320 megawatts (MW) (2 x 660 MW) coal based Maitree Super Thermal Power Project at Rampal in Bagerhat District of Khulna division, Bangladesh. The announcement was made during market hours on Tuesday, 11 April 2017.

Infosys slumped 5.08%. The company said that consolidated net profit as per International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) fell 2.8% to Rs 3603 crore on 0.9% decline in revenue to Rs 17120 crore in Q4 March 2017 over Q3 December 2016. The result was announced before market hours on Thursday, 13 April 2017.

Wipro lost 3.27%. The company said it has completed the acquisition of Brazilian IT service provider InfoSERVER. The impact of the buyout will reflect in the financials of the company from the Q1 June 2017, it added. The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 11 April 2017.

Reliance Industries (RIL) fell 2.93%. RIL's subsidiary, Reliance JioInfocomm (Jio) announced that the Jio Summer Surprise has been fully withdrawn, following the advice of Telecom Regulatory authority of India (TRAI). The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 11 April 2017.

Global Front: 
In Overseas Markets,China's consumer inflation rebounded slightly in March after slipping to a more than two-year low in the previous month, official data showed. China's consumer price index increased 0.9% in March from a year earlier, compared with a 0.8% gain in February, the National Bureau of Statistics said.

Japan's current account surplus stood at 2.81 trillion yen ($25.26 billion) in February, finance ministry data showed, the biggest surplus since March 2016. The result is the 32nd straight month of current account surpluses. This February's current account surplus was the largest on record for February.

Meanwhile, industrial production in the eurozone dropped unexpectedly in February from the month before, led by falling energy output, the European Union's statistics agency said. Output of the eurozone's factory, mines and utilities decreased by 0.3% from the month before, but rose by 1.2% from February last year, Eurostat said.

Global Economic News:

Trump shifts tone
US president Donald Trump sounded decidedly more moderate than he did during last fall’s campaign in an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday. The president reversed course on multiple fronts. First, Trump said he may nominate US Federal Reserve Board chair Janet Yellen to a second term after saying last fall that she was "toast" and he would replace her at the end of her term. He also reversed his opposition to the US Export-Import Bank, which finances US exports. Critics cite the bank as an example of “corporate welfare.” Additionally, the president shifted gears on NATO, saying the alliance is no longer obsolete because it has begun to fight terrorism. Finally, Trump said the United States will not label China a currency manipulator, thus breaking another campaign vow. The reversal may represent an attempt to entice China to increase pressure on North Korea to abandon its nuclear program.

North Korea, Syria in spotlight
Tensions continued to mount on the Korean peninsula as the North Korean regime threatened a nuclear strike in response to any US aggression. North Korea is believed to be trying to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the US mainland. This week, the US navy dispatched a carrier task force to the western Pacific in a show of force, while Chinese president Xi Jinping said that China is committed to the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. President Trump called on China to do more to rein in its nuclear-armed neighbor, saying if China won’t help, the US could act alone. Meanwhile, the US and other G7 nations continue to pressure Russia to abandon its support of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad in the wake of last week’s chemical weapons attack on Syrian rebels which led to a cruise missile strike on a Syrian airbase by US forces.

Poloz: House prices can go down as well as up
Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz warned of the growing role of speculation in the recent acceleration in Toronto-area house prices. The central banker said that prices had accelerated from percentages in the high teens to the 30% zone, adding there is no fundamental story that can explain the rise. “I think it is timely to remind folks that prices of houses can go down as well as up,” he said. Poloz also said that further rate cuts in Canada are no longer on the table.

EM debt issuance boomed in Q1
Borrowers in emerging markets raised a record $181 billion during the first quarter of the year. Corporates raised $119.1 billion, beating the Q1 2013 record, while sovereigns raised $61.5 billion, topping the year-ago quarter by over $16 billion, according to data from J.P. Morgan. Total emerging market debt rose to $55 trillion in 2016, equal to 215% of the collective GDP of emerging nations.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Four contenders vie for two spots in French runoff
For months, there have been three candidates in contention for the two spots in the second round of the French presidential election. Marine Le Pen, the populist firebrand, has consistently led recent polls, trailed closely by centrist Emmanuel Macron. François Fillon, hampered by an ethics scandal, has held the third position most of the time. Now a fourth candidate, leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has entered the fray and is in a virtual tie for third place with Fillon. The conventional wisdom is that Le Pen will be beaten handily in the second round by either Macron or Fillon, who are more centrist. But the emergence of Mélenchon could put an unexpected wrinkle into the process. First-round voting takes place on 23 April.

Yellen: Fed allowing economy to coast
Speaking at the University of Michigan, Fed chair Yellen said that the US economy is healthy and that the Fed is now shifting its focus, taking its foot off the accelerator and allowing the economy to “coast” for a while, saying a gradual path of interest rate increases can get us where we need to go. Yellen also opined on several bills that are working their way through Congress, expressing concern that the Fed could become subject to political pressure if the bills are signed into law.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

ABB

1467.65

ATUL

2532.00

BAJAJFINSV

4634.85

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):


NOT YET IN (A) CAT

-------

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:


 INDIABULLS REAL

19.13

PIRAMAL ENT.

16.68

RURAL ELECTRIFIC

12.57

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:


ADANI POWER

-24.66

SOBHA

-9.71

VEDANTA

-9.16



Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are: 
Monday (17 Mar)
Labor Market Conditions 
Tuesday (18 Mar)
Housing Market Index
Wednesday (19 Mar)
Housing Starts
Thursday (20 Mar)
MBA Mortgage Applications 
Friday (21 Mar)
Jobless Claims


Fundamental Pick of the week:
Buy Bajaj Auto Ltd For Target Rs.2950.00 -

Derivative Ideas
The stock is consolidating after forming a bottom at 2755 levels with positive price action in the past few days confirming an uptrend. The key technical indicators has also reversed turning upwards and as the stock has closed above its short term averages
* The stock has strong support on its weekly charts holding the short and medium term averages and the positive divergence in the last few weeks candle confirms the up move.
*Thus, long position can be initiated at Rs. 2810 for target of Rs 2950 with a stop loss of Rs 2740.

Indian Market Outlook:
The Nifty opened on a flat note today and traded with a downward bias. It has reached near the lower end of the 9180-9150 support range. On the hourly chart, the fall is appearing as a corrective one. In terms of price pattern, the Nifty seems to have formed a wedge on the hourly chart, whose implications are likely to be bullish. Thus, the next leg up could be around the corner. We are maintaining our positive view on the Nifty with a cautious approach. On the downside, the 61.8% retracement of the previous rise, ie 9120 will be the subsequent support, with 9000-8980 being a major support area. On the way up, 9340 and 9500 are the short-term and medium-term targets, respectively.  

TECHNICAL VIEW:


S3

S2

S1

NIFTY

R1

R2

R3

9,000

9,060

9,110

9,150.80

9,180

9,250

9,310

Nifty, after trading range bound for most part of the week, ended lower and lost nearly half a percent and finally settled at 9150.80.
* Existence of major hurdle around 9300 mark combined with weak global cues and anxiety ahead of earnings season capped upside; however, buying interest was witnessed in select index major amid volatility.
* In the coming week, we expect volatility to remain high due to ongoing earnings season and lingering geo-political issue.
* Considering all, we suggest participants maintaining stock specific approach and keep a check on the leveraged positions.

Conclusion:

Bank Nifty made low of  21551 so bulls held on to 21500 in today’s correction so we can continue the upmove towards 21850/21990 as we have weekly closing tomorrow, Friday being an holiday. Bearish below 21500 for a move towards 21400/21350. Bank Nifty continue to hold on to its gann angle suggesting bulls are holding the grip. Holding the low of 21600 BUlls can continue to see upmove towards 21800/21920/22000. Bearish on close below 21520 for a move towards 21400/21350/21230. New time cycle is starting from coming week (More Details in Weekly Analysis) so we can see good trending move in next 1-2 days.

RBI SHIFTS POLICY STANCE FROM ACCOMMODATIVE TO NEUTRAL ON FEAR OF INFLATION-Research Report-ShareTipsInfo

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RBI shifts policy stance from accommodative to neutral on fear of inflation

The Monetary Policy Committee in its first Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy review, held on 6 th April 2017, kept the borrowing rates unchanged at 6.25 percent. The committee however hiked reverse repo rate by 25 basis points to 6 percent in a bid to drain excess liquidity from the system. Speaking about liquidity, there was approximately Rs. 7,956 billion of excess cash in the banking system in January’17 which now stands close to Rs. 4,806 billion (March’17). This decline was majorly due to RBI’s tooling i.e. Market Stabilization Scheme which helped the central bank to absorb excess cash of around Rs. 3,141 billion by the end of March’17.

According to the RBI staff projections, the inflation rate which currently is at 3.65 percent is projected to rise at 4.5 percent in the first half of 2017-18 and thereafter at 5 percent. Reason behind this upsurge in consumer prices could be attributed to the rising probability of an El Niño event which could boost food inflation. Implementation of 7 th Pay Commission and GST bill along with global developments are other factors for the inflation uptick.

With respect to economic growth, gross value added growth is projected to strengthen to 7.4 percent in 2017-18 from 6.7 percent in 2016-17 primarily due to - rebound in consumer spending, credit growth, recent proposals in the Union Budget which could stimulate capital expenditure, roll-out of GST bill and the upsurge in IPO’s which augurs well for investment and growth.

Inflationary pressure to re-emerge along with higher growth

MPC clearly spells out higher upside risks to inflation. Average CPI is projected to be higher at 4.5% in H1FY18, currently at 3.7% in Feb’17, to 5.0% in H2FY18. Currently, demonetization spillovers has suppressed the headline inflation numbers. Headline inflation is likely to edge higher as the temporary impact of demonetization on perishable food items fades out and core inflation (4.8% YoY in Feb’17) inches up along with cyclical upswing in demand. The factors that are expected to reinforce inflationary pressure include

a) deficient south west monsoon & higher MSPs reinforcing food inflation,

b) increase in HRA as recommended by 7th pay commission is likely to push baseline inflation trajectory by 100-150bps,

c) initial effect from implementation of GST,

d) farm loan waivers by state governments,

e) policy focus to revive demand particularly from increase in budget allocation towards rural & affordable housing,

f) narrowing of output gap as remonetisation progresses,

g) spillover of improving global prospects on commodity prices,

h) rising inflation in advance economies due to reflationary policies,

i) currency impact arising from normalization of monetary policy in advance economies, especially US Fed and

j) protectionism policies adopted across the world.

On growth front (real GVA), the outlook is seen favorable at 7.4% vs 6.7% on the back of

a) gainingremonetisation,

b) reflationary fiscal policies, specially targeted towards rural demand and

c) cyclical upturn in global growth.

On global markets

According to the RBI governor, global trade volumes are finally improving which means that global demand is no more anaemic in nature. The world’s largest economy i.e. the United States of America is on growth path since all its important economic datasets on labour market, inflation and growth have come on a positive note. However, there is uncertainty surrounding the direction of US macro-economic policies with potential global spill over. The governor also feels that emerging markets are gradually improving on hardening commodity prices, easing recessionary pressures in Russia/Brazil and stabilized Chinese policy stimulus.

 Overview of Indian economy

The demonetization effect on the economy is finally easing. This can be observed from the rebound seen in manufacturing and service PMI data since demonetization. Both the PMI data lingered close to 49.6 and 46.8 in December’16 and has finally increased to 52.5 and 51.5 respectively in March’17 due to pickup seen in demand for new orders and output. This has benefitted the Index of industrial production (IIP) data which surged to 2.7 percent in January’17 from previous months -0.1 percent. Overall business sentiment is expected to improve in Q1 of 2017-18 on the back of a sharp pick up in both domestic and external demand y | June 7, 2016 www.angelcommodities.com Page 2 RBI Monetary Policy Update 06 April 2017 About the inflation rate, since the last two months the consumer prices have been increasing, all thanks to increase in the prices of sugar, fruits, meat, fish, milk and processed foods. Kerosene prices have also been increasing on the back of reduction in subsidies. With respect to balance of trade, India’s trade deficit narrowed to $8.9 billion in Feb-17 from previous month’s deficit of $9.8 billion due to lower crude oil prices. The above strong macro-economic datasets along with the resounding win of BJP party in Uttar Pradesh elections along with the clearance of GST bill in the LokSabha has led to a sudden surge in inflows which has acted as a positive factor both for Indian markets and its currency. The annual growth rate which was at 7.4 percent in September’16 quarter expanded by mere 7 percent owing to the demonetization move. The Monetary Policy Committee expects economic activities to recover in the second half of 2017-18.

Summing up

The no-change-in-policy was mainly undertaken to guard the Indian economy against any potential flare-up in inflation. Post this event, the Indian Rupee spot has been continuously appreciating and is currently trading at 64.51 levels while writing. USDINR spot is likely to appreciate even more in the near term as uncertainty with respect to Trump’s fiscal policies will keep the American currency pressurized in turn favouring the Indian currency

 

Outlook:

Liquidity to normalize by Q2FY18 RBI’s has reinforced its earlier outlook of re-emergence of inflationary pressure with a mild hawkish overtone. Hence, even the marginal market expectation of rate easing and softening of Gsec yields has been ruled out. The pace of remonetisation will provide reinforcement to domestic demand and growth outlook. Our projections indicate that complete normalization of demonetization, including reprinting of notes and meeting normalized demand will be achieved by end of Q1FY18, i.e. eight months post demonetization announcement. Expected upside risk to inflation can enhance the hawkish tenor of the RBI’s monetary policy stance. Additionally, prospects of rising global rates led by the Fed’s normalization will condition RBI’s policy outlook, in our view.

Weekly Nifty Trading View for the Week April 10, 2017–April 16, 2017

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Events to watch this week

  • US March nonfarm payrolls rise 98,000

  • US launches missile attack against Syria

  • Trump, Xi hold summit

  • Fed to begin shrinking balance sheet

  • European manufacturing speeds up

  • South Africa suffers credit downgrade

The Week ahead:

  • Fed chair Janet Yellen participates in a discussion at the University of Michigan on Monday, 10 April
  • The UK consumer price index is released on Tuesday, 11 April
  • UK unemployment data are reported on Wednesday, 12 April
  • The Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision is announced on Wednesday, 12 April
  • China reports its trade balance on Thursday, 13 April
  • The United States releases retail sales and consumer price data on Friday, April 14

For the week,Global equities were little changed this week despite an uptick in geopolitical jitters following the US missile strike on a Syrian airbase and a potential shift in tactics by the US Federal Reserve later this year. The lackluster employment report, coupled with the attack against Syria, helped push US 10-year Treasury notes to 2.28%, their lowest intraday yield of 2017, on Friday morning. Oil prices firmed after the attack, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising to $51.94, up from $50 a week ago. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), remained subdued, at 12.8 on Friday versus 12 a week ago.


NIFTY- 9,198.30
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,362barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,665 gram
Rs/$-Rs 68.08

MARKET ROUND UP 
The market rose last week in line with overall positive sentiment in the market which has been riding on the passage of Goods and Services Tax (GST) Bill and the strengthened position of government after the assembly elections. The improved macroeconomic numbers, such as sharp reduction in current account deficit, resulted in a lot of funds flowing into Indian equities - both from domestic and global institutions. The buying interest was not only in large-caps, but in mid and small-caps as well. 
In the week ended Friday, 7 April 2017, the Sensex rose 86.11 points, or 0.29% to settle at 29,706.61. The Nifty 50 index rose 24.55 points, or 0.27% to settle at 9,198.30. The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 136.51 points, or 0.97% to settle at 14,233.16. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 350.17 points, or 2.44% to settle at 14,681.42.

Trading for the week began on a positive note. Market registered modest gains in the first trading session of the week on Monday, 3 April 2017. The Sensex had risen 289.72 points or 0.98% to settle at 29,910.22. Domestic bourses were closed on Tuesday, 4 April 2017 on account of Ram Navami.

Market registered decent gains in a volatile trade on Wednesday, 5 April 2017. The Sensex had risen 64.02 points or 0.21% to settle at 29,974.24, its record closing high. 

Key benchmark indices registered small losses on weak global cues on Thursday, 6 April 2017. The Sensex fell 46.90 points or 0.16% to settle at 29,927.34, its lowest closing level since 3 April 2017.

Macro Economic Front: 
On the Economic Front,The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday, 6 April 2017, kept the policy repo under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged at 6.25%. On the basis of an assessment of the current and evolving macroeconomic situation at its meeting on Thursday, 6 April 2017, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the policy repo rate under the LAF unchanged at 6.25%.

Consequent upon the narrowing of the LAF corridor as elaborated in the accompanying Statement on Developmental and Regulatory Policies, the reverse repo rate under the LAF is at 6% per cent, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate are at 6.5%. The decision of the MPC is consistent with a neutral stance of monetary policy in consonance with the objective of achieving the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4% within a band of plus/minus 2%, while supporting growth, the RBI said.

Meanwhile, data released by Markit Economics during market hours on Thursday, 6 April 2017 showed that the Indian service sector moved further away from the demonetisation-related contractions seen towards the end of 2016 and beginning of 2017. The seasonally adjusted Nikkei India composite PMI output index increased to 52.3 in March, from 50.7 in February, signalling a quicker rise in private sector activity across the country.

Major Action &Announcement:
L&T said that the first 150 megawatts (MW) gas turbine for Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB)'s 225 MW combined cycle (dual fuel) power plant at Sikalbaha in Chittagong district was synchronised with the national grid on 25 March 2017. The second 280 MW gas turbine for North West Power Generation Co (NWPGCL) combined cycle power plant of 360 MW capacity development project at Bheramara in Kushtia district was synchronised with the grid on 31 March 2017. Both these power plants are being executed by gas based power projects business unit of L&T Power based in Baroda, India. L&T Power is also executing an engineering, procurement and construction subcontract for another 400 MW gas based power plant at Bibiyana in Sylhet district, Bangladesh. It will be ready for commissioning in 2018-19.

Index pivotal Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 6.55% to Rs 1,405.55. RIL said that the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has advised its telecom unit Reliance JioInfocomm (Jio) to withdraw the 3 months complementary benefits of Jio Summer Surprise. Jio accepted this decision. It is in the process of fully complying with the regulator's advice, and will be withdrawing the 3 months complimentary benefits of Jio Summer Surprise as soon as operationally feasible, over the next few days. 

Car major Maruti Suzuki India rose 3.98% to Rs 6,263.95 after the company announced 8.1% rise in total sales to 1.39 lakh units in March 2017 over March 2016. Total domestic sales rose 7.7% to 1.27 lakh units in March 2017 over March 2016. Exports grew by 12.6% to 11,764 units in March 2017 over March 2016. The announcement was made on Saturday, 1 April 2017.

Sate-run NTPC rose 1.05% to Rs 167.70. The company announced that Unit#1 of 660 megawatts (MW) of Solapur Super Thermal Power Project has been commissioned. With this, the commissioned capacity of NTPC and NTPC Group has become 44,194 MW and 51,410 MW respectively. The announcement was made during market hours on Friday, 7 April 2017.

Global Front: 
In Overseas Markets,Overseas, geopolitical tensions intensified after the US military struck a Syrian airfield near Homs. US President Donald Trump said he ordered the missile strikes following the deadly chemical attack that took place earlier in the week.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve policy minutes, which were released on Wednesday, 5 April 2017. The minutes had a slightly hawkish tone, as policymakers noted upside risk to the US economy. However, policymakers remain divided on whether inflation will rise to the Fed target of 2.0%. The minutes also stated FOMC members were in favor of taking steps to trim the $4.5 trillion balance sheet, which has ballooned since the Fed implemented its aggressive quantitative easing program back in 2008. 

Global Economic News:

US nonfarm payrolls up less than expected
US payrolls expanded by 98,000 in March, well below the 180,000 consensus forecast. In addition, both January and February payrolls were downwardly revised. However, the unemployment rate dipped 0.2% to 4.5%, the lowest level since May 2007, while average hourly earnings rose 2.7% versus a year ago, down from 2.8% in February.

US attacks Syrian airbase 
In response to a chemical weapons attack in Syria by the regime of Bashar al-Assad, the United States launched nearly five dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles targeted at the airfield from which the attack is believed to have been launched. The missiles struck infrastructure at the airfield, according to the administration, but did not target chemical weapons storage facilities because of the potential for civilian casualties.

Trade, North Korea top Trump–Xi agenda
US president Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s president, held talks at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Florida, late this week. The leaders discussed trade relations between the world’s two largest economies as well as security concerns, particularly over North Korea.

European manufacturing hits highest reading in nearly six years
Theeurozone purchasing managers’ index in March rose to its highest level in nearly six years, reaching 56.2 from 55.4. That’s the highest since April of 2011. European retail sales rose solidly for the second month in a row in February, rising 0.7%. In the United States, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index eased to 57.2 in March from February’s 57.7.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Fed eyes balance sheet, stock valuations
The minutes of Federal Open Market Committee meetings rarely make much news, but the summary of the March meeting did so on several fronts. The committee discussed shrinking the Fed’s mammoth $4.5 trillion balance sheet beginning late this year by allowing some of the assets it acquired in the wake of the financial crisis to mature. However, the committee did not outline specifically how it will change its reinvestment policy. Those specifics are expected later in 2017. Also newsworthy was that members of the committee opined on asset valuations more directly than usual: “Some participants viewed equity prices as quite high relative to standard valuation measures. It was observed that prices of other risk assets, such as emerging market stocks, high-yield corporate bonds, and commercial real estate, had also risen significantly in recent months.”

South Africa’s rating cut after Gordhan ousted
Credit rating agencies Standard and Poor’s and Fitch each downgraded South Africa’s sovereign credit rating one notch to BB+ in the wake of the sacking of former finance minister PravinGordhan. Weakening standards of governance and public finances were to blame.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

ADANIENT

119.35

ADANIPORTS

83.25

BAJAJFINSV

4288.00

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):


NOT YET IN (A) CAT

-------

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:


 ADANI TRANSMISSION

26.42

SOBHA

21.43

NAVKAR

19.27

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:


CONTAINER

-11.87

GSFC

-8.41

COX & KINGS

-8.08



Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are: 
Monday (10 Mar)
Labor Market Conditions 
Tuesday (11 Mar)
NFIB Small Business
Wednesday (12 Mar)
MBA Mortgage Applications
Thursday (13 Mar)
Consumer Sentiment &Natural Gas Report 
Friday (14 Mar)
Consumer Price Index & Retail Sales

Fundamental Pick of the week:
Derivative Ambuja Cements Ltd For Target Rs.254.00 

Derivative Ideas
AMBUJACEM added around 7.2% of open interest as fresh long positions along with some delivery based buying in previous sessions. On charts, it has witness upside breakout from Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern on daily charts. We suggest buying AMBUJACEM as per levels given below.

Strategy:
BUY AMBUJACEM APR FUTS BETWEEN 240-242, SL 237, TARGET 254.

Indian Market Outlook:
Nifty inched marginally higher in the holiday shortened week and settled closer to 9200, tracking mixed cues from domestic and global front.

* The coming week is also a holiday shortened one and we expect some decisive moves in stocks ahead of Q4FY17 corporate earnings. Besides, recent geo-political issue between the US and Syria will also remain on participants’ radar.
* Technically, we expect Nifty to consolidate further but the overall bias would remain on positive side. We suggest traders to use further profit taking to add quality stocks while keeping the leveraged positions hedged.

TECHNICAL VIEW:


S3

S2

S1

NIFTY

R1

R2

R3

9,000

9,080

9,130

9,198.30

9,225

9,270

9,340

High made was 9268 again near the gann angles, and low made was 9218 so we made an INSIDE Bar candle today, Now plan remains the same buy above 9268 for a move towards 9312/9360/9410. Bearish below 9200 for a move towards 9130/9030. Nifty continue to trade below the gann angle as high made today was also 9250 so we are unable to close above the gann level of 9268, and we closed below 9200 so we are heading towards 9130/9070/9020 range. Bullish only on close above 9268. 

Conclusion:

The Nifty witnessed a minor setback, closing the week on a flat note. Since the last couple of sessions, the Index was taking support near the previous swing high of 9218. However, today, it has broken below 9218 and has fallen back below 9200. Structurally, the fall seems to be a retracement of the previous rise and is unlikely to develop into a larger fall. 9180-9150 is a crucial support zone from where the Nifty can start the next leg up. The overall trend continues to be positive from a short-term as well as medium-term perspective. 9340 and 9500 are short-term and medium-term targets, respectively. On the flip side, 9000-8980 is the major support area.

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SENSEX LOSES 221 PTS, NIFTY ENDS BELOW 9200 AFTER US STRIKES SYRIA

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Major headlines

·         Jio complementary offer not in sync with regulations

·         India topped domestic aviation market growth in Feb

·         CCI nod for jabil India Ericssson India pact, 2 other deals

Indian Indices: Indian equity benchmarks extended their losses in late afternoon session on the back of heavy selling pressure in Healthcare, IT and Consumer Durables stocks. However, the broader markets showed some fervor and traded with notable gains, performing better than their larger peers. Weak opening in European markets and expectations of no further rate cuts by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) this year also impacted the sentiments. Even a strong rupee against dollar and healthy macro-economic data failed to uplift investors' sentiments. 

Traders remained pessimistic with the report that RBI projected retail inflation to increase to 5% in the second half of the current fiscal citing risks of El Nino impacting the monsoon and one-off effects of the Goods and Services Tax. The central bank also said that a prominent risk could emanate from managing the implementation of the allowances recommended by the 7th Central Pay Commission (CPC).

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 29788.99, down by 138.35 points or 0.46% after trading in a range of 29763.02 and 29886.12. There were 10 stocks advancing against 20 stocks declining on the index. The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.24%, while Small cap index was up by 0.29%.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 9227.80, down by 34.15 points or 0.37% after trading in a range of 9212.60 and 9250.50. There were 17 stocks advancing against 34 stocks declining on the index.

MARKET INDICATORS

·           

 

Top Movers (Group A)

 

 

Company

Cmp

% chg

Gainers

 

 

Adanitrans

81.35

7.04

Concor

1120.15

6.50

ABB

1380.55

6.14

Edelweiss

181.55

5.98

Losers

 

 

JPassociat

12.93

-7.58

Unitech

5.68

-5.96

Religare

218.35

-5.17

Cox & King

212.0

-4.13

INDEX PERFORANCE

 

 

Index

Close

% Chg

Sensex

29,706.61

-0.74

Nifty

9,198.30

-0.69

Crporate Front: India topped the global charts in domestic air passenger growth for the 23rd straight month in February, helped by strong demand and increased load factor, IATA said as per the PTI report. In February, the country's growth in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) stood at 17 per cent. Globally, RPK -- an indicator of passenger growth -- declined to 4.8 per cent during the same period. Load factor refers to occupancy level in a flight. "India topped the domestic growth chart for the 23rd month in a row in February.


 

Macroeconomic front: State Bank of India's bad loans have ballooned approximately 50 per cent in the span of a year and those of its five associate banks by 170 per cent.The bank will likely have to increase its provisioning for bad loans -- setting aside money to partly cover the non-performing assets (NPAs) following its merger with five subsidiaries.

On the global front:

On the global front, European markets were trading in red following indications by the U.S. Federal Reserve that it wants to pare back its balance sheet. Asian markets were trading in red. Back home, in scrip specific development, Force Motors edged higher after the company reported the production, sales and export of the products manufactured during the month of March 2017. The company’s production of Small Commercial Vehicles (SCV) & Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV) stood at 1,822 units and Utility Vehicles (UV), Sports Utility Vehicles (SUV) & Tractors stood at 1,387 units.

Commodity Updates:

Commodity Prices (MCX):

Commodity

Rs

% Chang

Gold

28864.00

0.5

Silver

42286.00

0.46

Crude oil

3369.00

0.54

Natural Gas

212.80

-0.88

Alluminium

124.45

-1.03

Copper

374.35

-1.66

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Telecom up by 1.23%, Oil & Gas up by 0.92%, PSU up by 0.47%, Capital Goods up by 0.40% and Industrials up by 0.15%, while Healthcare down by 0.93%, IT down by 0.63%, Consumer Durables down by 0.55%, Metal down by 0.51% and Bankex down by 0.50% were the top losing indices on BSE.

Top Nifty Movers:The top gainers on Nifty were Reliance Industries up by 2.09%, Bajaj Auto up by 1.30%, IndusInd Bank up by 1.22%, Indian Oil Corp. up by 0.92% and Zee Entertainment up by 0.91%. On the flip side, Hindalco down by 2.57%, ITC down by 1.77%, Coal India down by 1.31%, AurobindoPharma down by 1.30% and Adani Ports & SEZ down by 1.28% were the top losers.

 

Global Signals:

sian markets were trading mostly in red; Jakarta Composite decreased 29.79 points or 0.52% to 5,650.45, Taiwan Weighted decreased 24.43 points or 0.25% to 9,873.37, Hang Seng decreased 6.42 points or 0.03% to 24,267.30, FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI decreased 1.57 points or 0.09% to 1,737.99 and KOSPI Index decreased 1.02 points or 0.05% to 2,151.73. On the flip side, Shanghai Composite increased 5.61 points or 0.17% to 3,286.62 and Nikkei 225 increased 67.57 points or 0.36% to 18,664.63.

All European markets were trading in red; Germany’s DAX decreased 58.05 points or 0.47% to 12,172.84, France’s CAC decreased 12.89 points or 0.25% to 5,108.55 and UK’s FTSE 100 decreased 0.22 points or 0% to 7,302.98.

 

 

Oil prices hit 1 month high as Syria tension sees rise in geopolitical risk. US Dollar stabilizes even as stocks give up most gains.

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Major headlines:

·         Assocham seeks lower rental on PoS machines

·         Israel eases visa policy for Indian businessmen

·         Reliance Jio to withdraw 3 months complimentary Summer Surprise offer

 

Indian Indices:Asian indices are set to open flat as overnight the US indices gave up most gains with Energy stocks leading the winners. However sell off in Banks and Financials saw the indices close flat as risk in Syria kept the market participants edgy. Bond yields edged up even as oil prices hit fresh 1 month highs.


The Central bank as per consensus left rates unchanged, which saw markets close with marginal losses. The banks being awash with liquidity is seeing positive reaction both on the bond and the currency markets with the Rupee hitting 64.5 a nearly 20 month high. The liquidity gush due to strong foreign buying is seeing strong inflows with bullishness in both stocks and the currency.


The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 29844.88, down by 82.46 points or 0.28% after trading in a range of 29763.02 and 29863.74. There were 11 stocks advancing against 19 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index rose 0.13%, while Small cap index was up by 0.21%.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 9235.50, down by 26.45 points or 0.29% after trading in a range of 9212.60 and 9240.15. There were 16 stocks advancing against 35 stocks declining on the index.

MARKET INDICATORS

·           

 

Group ATopGainers

 

 

Company

Price (Rs)

% chg

Adanitrans

82.50

8.55

KEC

229.50

5.32

Denabank

40.25

4.27

DEN

94.00

3.98

Group ATopLosers

 

 

Jetairways

508.00

-2.46

Unitech

5.91

-2.15

Sunpharma

672.00

-2.11

Jublfood

1043.00

-1.72

INDEX PERFORMANCE

 

 

Indices

Support

Resistanes

Sensex

29845

30035

Nifty

9235

9300

 

Technical view: Nifty finds strong support @ 9218, which was yesterday's low while 9330 will act as strong resistance. Bank Nifty also finds strong support @ 21350 while 21850 will act as resistance on the upside.


 

Titan (Buy above 488, for Target of 505, Stop Loss at 480): The stock has broken out from a rising channel pattern on the daily chart and has also sustained above the same in yesterday's trade. On hourly basis the breakout is confirmed as the stock recovered to close near days high with increase in volumes. Momentum oscillators suggest the upward thrust to continue. We advise to Buy Titan above Rs 488, Stop Loss at Rs 480 and Target of Rs 505.


Derivative Snippets

In the last trading session, markets ended on a flat note after witnessing a volatile swing. Long unwinding was observed in Nifty futures along with some minor short selling in OTM call and put option strikes.


FIIs were net buyers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs 143 Cr.


FII’s index future long/short ratio at 3.2x vs 3.6x.

 

Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were Indian Oil Corporation up by 2.66%, BPCL up by 1.90%, Larsen & Toubro up by 1.60%, BhartiAirtel up by 1.39% and Tech Mahindra was up by 1.12%. On the flip side, Sun Pharma down by 2.54%, Adani Ports & SEZ down by 2.26%, Zee Entertainment down by 1.83%, Bank of Baroda down by 1.32% and Tata Motors - DVR down was by 1.29% were the top losers.

 

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening: The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Telecom up by 1.20%, Realty up by 1.05%, Capital Goods up by 0.92%, Oil & Gas up by 0.71% and Industrials up by 0.23%, while Healthcare down by 0.78%, FMCG down by 0.33%, Power down by 0.32%, Metal down by 0.29% and Utilities was down by 0.20% were the top losing indices on BSE.

 

 


On the global front: On the global front, stocks slumped and safe haven bonds and the yen jumped in Asia on Friday after the United States launched cruise missiles against an air base in Syria, potentially escalating the conflict and spooking investors globally. The US markets closed modestly higher in last session but were off the highs of the day, as traders looked ahead to the release of the Labour Department’s closely watched monthly jobs report on Friday.

 

 

Global Signals:Asian markets were trading mostly in red; Hang Seng decreased 136.61 points or 0.56% to 24,137.11, Taiwan Weighted shed 44.45 points or 0.45% to 9,853.35, Jakarta Composite fell 30.03 points or 0.53% to 5,650.21, KOSPI Index slipped 2.03 points or 0.09% to 2,150.72 and FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI was down by 1.52 points or 0.09% to 1,738.04.

On the flip side, Shanghai Composite increased 8.09 points or 0.25% to 3,289.09 and Nikkei 225 was up by 95 points or 0.51% to 18,692.06.

 

SENSEX OFF DAY’S LOW POST RBI POLICY, NIFTY ENDS ABOVE 9250; ITC, SBI FALL

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Indian Indices:  Indian equity benchmarks pared some of their early losses in late afternoon session but continued to trade in negative territory. The markets trimmed losses with the report that Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept policy interest rates unchanged at 6.25% for a third straight meeting today, shifting focus to ways to mop up excess cash in the banking system that threatens to stoke inflation. It however raised the reverse repo rate from 5.75% to 6%. Some support also came in with the report that services sector in India registered second straight month of growth in March, driven by strong rise in new work orders amid softer inflationary pressures. The Nikkei India Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 51.5 in March from 50.3 in February. However, traders remained cautions with global credit rating agency Crisil’s report that CPI inflation is likely to average higher at 5 percent in the current fiscal on expectations of increasing pressure on food prices as well as uptick in global oil and commodity rates.

The BSE Sensex is currently closed at 29927.34, down by 46.90 points or 0.16% after trading in a range of 29817.59 and 29949.60. There were 12 stocks advancing against 18 stocks declining on the index.The broader indices were trading mixed; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.11%, while Small cap index down by 0.13%.

The CNX Nifty is currently shut down at 9261.95, down by -3.20 points or 0.03% after trading in a range of 9215.40 and 9264.95. There were 31 stocks advancing against 20 stocks declining on the index.

MARKET INDICATORS

·           

 

Top Movers (Group A)

 

 

Company

Cmp

% chg

Gainers

 

 

Navkarcorp

208.40

15.07

MCleodrus

179.85

7.44

Jindalstel

132.70

6.76

Adaniports

44.25

5.23

Losers

 

 

Justdial

533.70

-3.89

Deltacorp

184.95

-8.71

Muthootfin

380.95

-3.80

GSFC

121.85

-3.45

INDEX PERFORMANCE

 

 

Index

Close

% Chg

Sensex

29,927.34

-0.16

Nifty

9,261.95

-0.03

Crporate Front: Ministry of communications & information technology has said that Department of Telecommunications (DoT) has been taking various initiatives to address the problem of call drops in mobile networks. The Telecom Service Providers (TSPs) have installed about 2,12,917 additional BTSs (Base Transceiver Stations) across the country during the period from June 2016 to February 2017. “From the feedback it has been observed that the problem of call drops is more severe indoors, said Ministry of communications & information technology in a statement.

 

Macroeconomic front: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will focus on draining excess liquidity from the system in the new fiscal year, Governor Urjit Patel said after the monetary policy meeting on Thursday.The RBI kept its repo rate unchanged at 6.25 percent for a third consecutive policy meeting on Thursday as it continues to guard against a potential flare-up in inflation and an uncertain global economic environment.

 

On the global front: On the global front, European markets were trading in red following indications by the U.S. Federal Reserve that it wants to pare back its balance sheet. Asian markets were trading in red. Back home, in scrip specific development, Force Motors edged higher after the company reported the production, sales and export of the products manufactured during the month of March 2017. The company’s production of Small Commercial Vehicles (SCV) & Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV) stood at 1,822 units and Utility Vehicles (UV), Sports Utility Vehicles (SUV) & Tractors stood at 1,387 units.

Commodity Updates:

Commodity Prices (MCX):

Commodity

Rs

% Chang

Gold

28850.00

0.16

Silver

42273.00

0.04

Crude oil

3324.00

-0.24

Natural Gas

211.70

-0.66

Alluminium

127.30

-0.16

Copper

383.60

-0.66

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Realty up by 2.46%, Energy up by 1.00%, Oil & Gas up by 0.78%, Power up by 0.34% and PSU up by 0.31%, while Consumer Durables down by 0.97%, FMCG down by 0.80%, Healthcare down by 0.66%, Telecom down by 0.55% and Metal down by 0.54% were the top losing indices on BSE.

Top Nifty Movers:The top gainers on Nifty were Reliance Industries up by 2.09%, Bajaj Auto up by 1.30%, IndusInd Bank up by 1.22%, Indian Oil Corp. up by 0.92% and Zee Entertainment up by 0.91%. On the flip side, Hindalco down by 2.57%, ITC down by 1.77%, Coal India down by 1.31%, AurobindoPharma down by 1.30% and Adani Ports & SEZ down by 1.28% were the top losers.

 

Global Signals:

Asian markets were trading mostly in red; Nikkei 225 decreased 264.21 points or 1.4% to 18,597.06, Hang Seng decreased 127.08 points or 0.52% to 24,273.72, Taiwan Weighted decreased 51.68 points or 0.52% to 9,897.80, KOSPI Index decreased 8.1 points or 0.37% to 2,152.75 and FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI decreased 5.11 points or 0.29% to 1,739.56. On the flip side, Jakarta Composite increased 3.26 points or 0.06% to 5,680.24 and Shanghai Composite increased 10.7 points or 0.33% to 3,281.01.All European markets were in red; Germany’s DAX decreased 50.26 points or 0.41% to 12,167.28, UK’s FTSE 100 decreased 40.92 points or 0.56% to 7,290.76 and France’s CAC decreased 9.25 points or 0.18% to 5,082.60.

 

 

US indices flattered to deceive, giving up over 180 point rise to close in the red.

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Indian Indices: Asian indices opened weak after overnight Dow Jones reversed early gains to close in the red. The fall in bond yields coupled with delay in implementation of reforms promised by the Trump administration is seeing sell on rallies emerge in US indices.


Nifty continued its upward journey with overbought indices now continuing their winning streaks. The flow of money from both foreign and domestic investors is keeping the bulls in fine fettle as new highs see new money chase absolute returns. With RBI monetary policy due today consensus has built up no change in policy rates, which could see profit booking after the event.


The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 29859.37, down by 114.87 points or 0.38% after trading in a range of 29833.45 and 29948.44. There were 5 stocks advancing against 25 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading in red; the BSE Mid cap index was down by 0.23%, while Small cap index was down by 0.37%.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 9226.40, down by 38.75 points or 0.42% after trading in a range of 9220.00 and 9245.80. There were 14 stocks advancing against 37 stocks declining on the index.

MARKET INDICATORS

·           

 

Group ATopGainers

 

 

Company

Price (Rs)

% chg

Navkarcorp

204.00

12.64

Concor

1053.90

4.13

Jindalstel

129.25

3.98

Unitech

6.06

3.59

Group ATopLosers

 

 

Deltacorp

186.90

-7.75

SCI

75.90

-3.68

Bharatfin

768.55

-3.58

Justdial

537.55

-3.20

INDEX PERFORMANCE

 

 

Indices

Support

Resistanes

Sensex

29550

29780

Nifty

9150

9220

 

Technical view: Nifty now finds support around 9200 with 9330 acting as resistance while Bank Nifty finds support around 21350 with 21750 acting as resistance.

 

 

SPARC (Buy above 352, for Target of 375.5, Stop Loss at 339):Stock has been trading in a tight range of Rs 340 and Rs 300 since first week of Dec 2016. Multiple attempts to close above Rs 340 went futile earlier. In yesterday's trade stock broke out of the range successfully giving a close above Rs 340, sustaining above all its medium term 100-200 DMA. The breakout has been accompanied with decent volume expansion on daily charts. We advise to Buy SPARC above Rs 352, Stop Loss at Rs 339 and Target of Rs 375.5.

Derivative Snippets

In the last trading session, markets continue to trade higher as the mid-cap stocks shimmered. Nifty and Bank Nifty OTM put option strikes continued to remain under the selling pressure, limiting the downside risk for the indices.


FIIs were net buyers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs 340 Cr.


FII’s index future long/short ratio at 3.6x vs 3.3x.

 

Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were Bajaj Auto up by 1.44%, Axis Bank up by 0.73%, Reliance Industries up by 0.67%, Indian Oil Corporation up by 0.64% and Bank of Baroda up by 0.52%. On the flip side, Hindalco down by 2.70%, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone down by 1.73%, ITC down by 1.60%, Tata Steel down by 1.48% and Hindustan Unilever down by 1.47% were the top losers.

 

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening: The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Realty up by 2.46%, Consumer Durables up by 1.87%, Metal up by 1.01%, Telecom up by 0.84% and Basic Materials was up by 0.83%, while IT down by 0.33%, TECK down by 0.17%, FMCG down by 0.15% and Bankex was down by 0.11% were the few losing indices on BSE.

 

 

On the global front: On the global front, Asian shares were trading mostly in red, with risk appetite soured by signs the Fed might start paring its king-sized balance sheet later this year just as the chances of an early US fiscal stimulus faded further. Investors were also wary ahead of a potentially tense meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, the first between the world’s two most powerful leaders

 

Global Signals:The Asian markets were trading mostly in red; Nikkei 225 decreased 289.64 points or 1.54% to 18,571.63, Hang Seng decreased 141.92 points or 0.58% to 24,258.88, Taiwan Weighted decreased 59.19 points or 0.59% to 9,890.29, Jakarta Composite decreased 26.1 points or 0.46% to 5,650.88, KOSPI Index decreased 14.53 points or 0.67% to 2,146.32 and FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI decreased 4.74 points or 0.27% to 1,739.93.On the other hand, Shanghai Composite increased 6.5 points or 0.2% to 3,276.80.

 

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