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Forex - U.S. Dollar Falls Amid Fed Rate Cuts, QE Program

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The U.S. dollar fell on Monday in Asia after the U.S. Federal Reserve slashed its benchmark interest rate to zero and launched a massive quantitative easing (QE) program in an emergency move over the weekend. 

On Sunday, the Fed shocked investors by announcing a 50 basis point rate cut. It was the second rate slash by the central bank in less than two weeks as it delivered a rare emergency rate cut at the start of the month. 

The Fed also announced a QE program that entails $700 billion worth of asset purchases.

Following the news, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.4% to 98.482.

In other news, U.S. President Donald Trump declared a national emergency on Friday as the country recorded more than 2,000 cases and 50 deaths. 

The USD/JPY pair lost 1.0% to 106.79 as Asian markets traded in the red again. 

The Bank of Japan is expected to ease policy on Thursday to cushion the economic fallout from the coronavirus and shore up business confidence in the country. 

Meanwhile, the Japanese government is reportedly preparing a new spending package of up to 20 trillion yen ($190 billion), as it tries to fend off a recession.

The AUD/USD pair and the NZD/USD pair both fell 0.2%. 

The EUR/USD pair rose 0.2% to 1.1128 as traders await a meeting between European Union finance ministers later in the day. Reuters reported today that the ministers might agree on a coordinated economic response to the coronavirus pandemic, with the European Commission forecasting the effects of the virus could push the EU into a recession.

The USD/CNY pair slipped 0.1% to 6.9993. While not a directional driver for the yuan today, data showed China’s latest industrial production, employment and retail sales figure all came in a lot worse than expected. 


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EM ASIA FX-Most currencies weaken as pandemic panic boosts dollar appeal

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 Most Asian currencies fell against a firmer dollar on Friday, with the Indonesian rupiah and the South Korean won declining the most, as intensifying panic over the coronavirus outbreak sent investors scurrying into the world's reserve currency.

The dollar's appeal was also boosted by the Federal Reserve's move to inject $1.5 trillion in short-term liquidity and change the durations of Treasuries it buys to mitigate the coronavirus-induced economic stress. FRX/

"The overriding theme from the last 24 hours is that markets are hunting for U.S. dollars, and don't really care what rates they pay to get them," Jeffrey Halley, market analyst at OANDA, wrote in a note.

Reflecting the demand for the greenback, the benchmark U.S. Treasury yields US10YT=RR fell, he said.

In Asia, the Indonesian rupiah IDR= and the Korean won KRW=KFTC were the top losers as investors trimmed exposure to risky assets.

The rupiah, being one of the high-yielding emerging currencies, sees ample foreign investment, but risk aversion sparked by the coronavirus pandemic has caused the recent unwind, said Sim Moh Siong, a FX strategist at Bank of Singapore.

Indonesia has been among the most proactive countries to roll out measures to shield its economy and currency, with the central bank purchasing bonds for two consecutive days and the finance minister introducing a second stimulus package worth $8 billion. rupiah slid 2% to its lowest since November 2018, while the won, whose movement is closely linked to its stock market, hit a four-year trough.

The trade-sensitive won benefited when the United States and China signed an interim trade pact earlier this year before worries of a global recession weighed on investor sentiment and led to heavy equity capital outflows, Siong said.

Indonesian .JKSE and South Korean .KOSPI stocks also plunged, triggering circuit breakers.

The Thai baht THB=TH , the Taiwan dollar TWD=TP and the Malaysian ringgit MYR= weakened between 0.1% and 0.8%.

Among gainers were currencies of oil-importing India INR=IN and the Philippines PHP= , benefiting from an overnight drop in crude prices. O/R

Meanwhile, all Asian currencies were on track to post loss for the week during which oil prices crashed and global central banks and governments unveiled measures to contain the impact of the coronavirus.

CHINESE YUAN

The Chinese yuan CNY=CFXS strengthened 0.7% on Friday, and was on its way to mark its best session in more than a week.

Maybank analysts said a combination of strong virus containment measures, hopes for a recovery in the economy and a recent dive in U.S. rates enhanced the yuan's yield appeal, giving it a kind of immunity.

"Investors will be determined to look past the ugly data in the near term," they said.

Chinese stocks .SSEC have fallen less than their global counterparts in recent weeks as the spread of the virus has slowed and many factories have slowly resumed work. CNY/

The following table shows rates for Asian currencies against the dollar at 0620 GMT.

CURRENCIES VS U.S. DOLLAR

Currency

Latest bid Previous day Pct Move Japan yen

105.430

104.63

-0.76 Sing dlr

1.408

1.4110

+0.24 Taiwan dlr

30.180

30.150

-0.10 Korean won

1219.100

1206.5

-1.03 Baht

31.850

-0.78 Peso

51.040

51.31

+0.53 Rupiah

14810.000 14510

-2.03 Rupee

74.083

74.25

+0.23 Ringgit

4.280

-0.23 Yuan

6.982

7.0280

+0.67

Change so far in 2020

Currency

Latest bid End 2019

Pct Move Japan yen

105.430

108.61

+3.02 Sing dlr

1.408

1.3444

-4.49 Taiwan dlr

30.180

30.106

-0.25 Korean won

1219.100

1156.40

-5.14 Baht

31.850

29.91

-6.09 Peso

51.040

50.65

-0.76 Rupiah

14810.000 13880

-6.28 Rupee

74.083

71.38

-3.65 Ringgit

4.280

4.0890

-4.46 Yuan

6.982

6.9632

-0.26

($1 = 14,810.0000 rupiah)


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FOREX-Dollar gains from safe-haven scramble as virus rattles markets

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The dollar stood tall on Friday as investors scrambled for the world's most liquid currency amid deepening panic about the coronavirus, while the euro nursed losses after the European Central Bank disappointed by not cutting rates.

The greenback held gains against most currencies after a blowout in swap spreads showed investors are facing a shortage of dollars as equity markets plunged on fears about the global economic impact of the flu-like virus.

The ECB on Thursday unveiled a stimulus package that provides loans to banks with rates as low as -0.75% and increases bond purchases. Federal Reserve moved to provide $1.5 trillion in short-term liquidity and changed the durations of Treasuries it buys, but money markets show investors expect the Fed will have to go even further to restore calm to financial markets.

The government in Italy, which has become Europe's hot spot for coronavirus infections, has effectively put the entire country on lockdown to try to slow the virus.

Investors have so far expressed disappointment with the government response to rising infections in the United States, and traders warn there could be more disruptions in a broad range of financial markets.

"Risk off used to benefit the yen, but now we see that risk off is supporting the dollar," said Takuya Kanda, general manager of the research department at Gaitame.com Research Institute in Tokyo.

"We are in panic mode, because we don't know how far stocks will fall."

The euro EUR=EBS traded at $1.1202, following a 0.72% decline on Thursday in the wake of the ECB decision. For the week, the common currency was on course for a 0.7% decline.

Against the pound GBP=D3 , the dollar rose slightly to $1.2541 in Asia on Friday, which followed its biggest one-day gain against sterling since July 2016. The dollar was up 3.8% against sterling this week, its best performance since October 2016.

The greenback held gains against the Swiss franc CHF=EBS , trading at 0.9435, headed for a 0.7% weekly gain.

The ECB rolled out yet another stimulus package on Thursday to help fight the coronavirus pandemic but did not join its counterparts in the United States and Britain by cutting rates.

Investors, who had bet the ECB could cut rates at least 10 basis points and possibly more, were disappointed.

ECB President Christine Lagarde also aggravated a market selloff by saying it was not the central bank's job to close the spread between the borrowing costs of various members, comments which she later tried to roll back. are rushing to introduce travel bans, extra financial liquidity and monetary easing as the rapid spread of the virus across the world slams the brakes on the global economy.

The dollar rose 0.88% to 105.58 yen JPY=EBS on Friday, on course for a 0.2% weekly advance.

With signs of financial stress emerging across different markets, the New York Federal Reserve said it would make the money available in three tranches of $500 billion each and that it would start purchasing a broader range of U.S. Treasury securities.

The Fed meets next week and many analysts now expect the central bank to chop its own target policy rate, quite possibly to zero, and give markets new guidance about how it plans to combat the economic fallout from the coronavirus.

The Bank of Japan, which will announce a policy decision next week Thursday after the Fed, announced the unscheduled purchase of 200 billion yen ($1.90 billion) in government debt on Friday. It also said it would inject an additional 1.5 trillion yen in two-week lending in a sign of concern that liquidity could dry up. basis swap spreads for the yen JPYCBS3M= and the pound GBPCBS3M=ICAP blew out in what traders say is a sign of a dollar shortage.

Highlighting the sense of crisis, senior officials from the Group of Seven talked on Thursday and confirmed they will cooperate closely as equities tumble and corporate bond spreads widen. Canadian dollar CAD=D3 rose slightly to C$1.3894 against the greenback, pulling back from a four-year low.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's wife has tested positive for the coronavirus, his office said. Trudeau is not showing any symptoms but will stay in isolation for 14 days, according to his office. Australian AUD=D3 and New Zealand dollars NZD=D3 managed to bounce more than half a percent against the greenback in Asian trade. The antipodeans were mauled on Thursday as investors shunned riskier currencies that are linked to the global commodities trade.

The Reserve Bank of Australia also injected an unusually large amount of cash into the financial system on Friday as panic spread. ($1 = 105.0200 yen)


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Oil market set for record surplus amid coronavirus-led demand slump

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The US banking giant, Goldman Sachs, said in a recent note, the oil market would be swooning in record supply by April amid coronavirus led slump in demand and a bigger-than-expected surge in low-cost output.

 Key quotes

“Oil market could see a record surplus of about 6 million barrels per day by April.

The high-cost producer response at our second quarter 2020 $30/bbl Brent forecast will not be sufficiently fast to offset the record large inventory builds set to occur in coming months.

The jump in inventories could also force some inland high-cost producers to shut production, since storage logistics may be stretched.

The demand loss is due to the fast-spreading coronavirus outbreak at about 4.5 million bpd.

The accumulation of oil inventories over the next six months could be similar to a build up over 18 months in 2014-16.

Global demand growth, on the other hand, would see a reduction of about 310,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 and comfortably offset any fast supply response from high cost producers, especially with the shale output now forecast to drop by 900,000 bpd in the first quarter of 2021.

Finally, any potential re-escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East would not prevent the bearish pressure of quickly accumulating inventories unless it led to a historically large outage.”


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USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, DOW JONES FUTURES SINK ON TRUMP NATION ADDRESS

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The anti-risk Japanese Yen gained as the sentiment-linked Australian Dollar declined alongside Dow Jones futures after U.S. President Donald Trump addressed the nation amid the coronavirus outbreak. Over the past 24 hours, Wall Street entered bearmarket territory with global growth increasingly at risk. The markets were thus looking for details of fiscal support with monetary policy already at its limits worldwide.

Mr Trump announced that the country is suspending all travel from Europe over the next 30 days, excluding the United Kingdom. He then turned to Congress, asking it to take legislative action on relief such as increasing funding by $50b to SBA (Small Business Administration). Another major policy is calling on the House for immediate payroll tax relief. He also instructed the Treasury to defer some tax payments, offering about $200b in liquidity.

Following his speech, S&P 500 futures extended their rout, dropping in excess of 2% during Asia trading hours. This is as the Nikkei 225 declined over 2.7% as the ASX 200 plummeted almost 5%. European futures are also pointing notably lower. With that in mind, risk aversion may be in the cards for the remainder of the day as investors flock into Treasuries. Sentiment-linked crude oil prices are aiming lower.



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Yes Bank crisis | Cabinet may consider draft restructuring scheme on March 13

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The Cabinet is likely to consider Yes Bank's draft restructuring scheme on March 13, CNBC-TV18 reported.

Earlier this month, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the government expects the reconstruction plan to come into effect by April 3. She said the Reserve bank of India (RBI) would submit a report detailing the reasons that led to the failure of Yes Bank and the associated regulatory gaps.

Meanwhile, reports earlier on March 12 suggest that the central bank has tapped investors like Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, DMart owner Radhakishan Damani, and PremjiInvest to be a part of the rescue consortium for the Yes Bank.

The RBI's rescue plan for Yes Bank involves an initial capital infusion to prevent a relapse once the bank's month-long moratorium ends on April 3.

Troubled private sector lender Yes Bank's board was superseded by the RBI on March 5 and a moratorium was imposed for a 30-day period ending April 3.

The RBI capped withdrawals from the bank at Rs 50,000, with certain exemptions in case of unforeseen circumstances.

FOREX-Dollar skids as Trump's virus response disappoints

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The dollar slid in another seismic shift to price in more U.S. interest rate cuts on Thursday, as President Donald Trump sapped market confidence with a coronavirus plan light on details.

The greenback dropped as far as 1% to 103.32 yen JPY= , fell as much as 0.6% to $1.1333 against the euro EUR= and lost 0.6% to the safe-haven Swiss franc CHF= .

Riskier currencies were punished as the fearful mood sent the Australian dollar AUD= down 0.6% and the South Korean won skidding 1% KRW= , and losing even more ground to the rising yen.

Trump announced on Wednesday a ban on travellers from 26 European countries entering the United States for a month.

He unveiled economic steps to counter the virus but his address from the Oval Office was light on medical measures beyond assurances that "the virus has no chance against us".

"The market was looking for more," said Moh Siong Sim, currency strategist at the Bank of Singapore.

"A travel ban is part of the solution, but the more important parts are still missing. They are really the public health measures: Paid sick leave, free testing, free treatment," he said.

"The market is right now looking for perhaps more action from the Fed, given the disappointment from the White House."

Indeed, futures markets reacted swiftly. They are now pricing in the U.S. Federal Reserve moving the lower end of its benchmark funding band to zero when it meets next week. 0#FF:

"The deflationary shock that we had assumed would trigger a U.S. entry into the zero-yield world is turning out to be a combo of trade war, oil price war and COVID-19 virus," J.P. Morgan's long-term strategists Jan Loeys and Shiny Kundu said in a note.

"(There are) close to even odds now of an official U.S. recession this year."

Trump's address came with markets already in turmoil amid a string of increasingly dire news on the coronavirus.

The longest bull run in U.S. stock market history has ended, with market talk that selling to cover margin calls was keeping gold and bonds from rallying. .N

The World Health Organization overnight described the outbreak as a pandemic. Italy, where deaths rose by nearly a third overnight, has shuttered all shops except supermarkets, food stores and pharmacies. yen was last up 0.8% on the greenback and soaring against other currencies, with gains around 1% on the Australian AUDJPY= and New Zealand dollars NZDJPY= and 2% on the won KRWJPY= .

Australia on Wednesday announced an $11.4 billion stimulus package including wage subsidies and cash payments to small businesses - though the Aussie AUD=D3 slid further with the glum mood and growing recession fears. AUD/

Investors are now waiting to see how aggressively the European Central Bank acts at its meeting later on Thursday.

Traders expect a cut to the main deposit rate by 10 basis points. But it is no certainty since rates are already at a record-low -0.5% and further cuts could hurt bank margins and so squeeze lending. press conference is due at 1230 GMT in Frankfurt, after the monetary policy meeting. The euro steadied around $1.1296 in the meantime.

On Wednesday, the Bank of England slashed interest rates by 0.5 percentage point, though there are doubts the outsized move will be enough to fight the virus' impact.

The British pound last stood at $1.2803 GBP=D4 , near this week's low.

"There's a sense to which currency markets are going to reward the currencies of countries that are seen to be using whatever space they've got for easier fiscal and monetary policy," said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at NAB.

"(But) even if the ECB wheel out a cocktail of lower rates, stepped up QE, more long-term ... in itself, that's not going to inspire a huge amount of confidence that the eurozone economy is going to escape recession. The hope would be that we'll have something more tangible on the fiscal side sooner rather than later."


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Rupee Drops Toward Record Low as Virus Scare Worsens Growth Woes

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The Indian rupee slid to near a record low, beset by concerns over the fallout of the coronavirus outbreak and the impact of the seizure of Yes Bank (NS:YESB) by authorities.

The rupee weakened as much as 1% to 74.3387 per dollar on Thursday to near its record low of 74.4825, a level last seen in October 2018. Sovereign bonds declined.

The rupee has been Asia’s worst-performing currency this month after the seizure of Yes Bank, India’s fourth-largest private lender, by the central bank added to fears fueled by the spread of coronavirus cases in the country. The government late Wednesday suspended most visas in a bid to halt the spread of the virus as the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a pandemic.

India’s action came as U.S. President Donald Trump suspended all travel from Europe, excluding the U.K., and the WHO urged governments to step up containment efforts as the number of worldwide cases topped 124,000 and deaths exceeded 4,600. India currently has 60 confirmed cases.

Traders have been citing attempts by the Reserve Bank of India to smoothen the rupee’s slide in the past few sessions. The central bank is sitting on record forex reserves of $482 billion, thanks to its continued purchases in the currency markets over the past few years.

The plunge in the global crude oil price remains a bright spot for the nation’s struggling economy. The price of crude crashed more than 30% on Monday after the disintegration of the OPEC+ alliance triggered an all-out price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia that is likely to have sweeping political and economic consequences.


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Fuel prices: Petrol sells at Rs 70.29 in Delhi, diesel at Rs 63.01

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Fuel prices on March 11 were left unchanged, after six successive days of rate cuts. This, even as oil prices slipped by over 22 percent on March 9 after the failure of an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia on the subject of an output cut.

In the national capital, petrol and diesel are available at Rs 70.29 a litre and Rs 63.01 a litre respectively.

Meanwhile, a litre of petrol in Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata costs Rs 75.99, Rs 73.02 and Rs 72.98 as on March 11. Diesel prices in these cities are at Rs 65.97, Rs 66.48 and Rs 65.34 respectively.

In Bengaluru and Gurugram, petrol prices stood at Rs 72.70 per litre and Rs 70.76 per litre respectively while a litre of diesel costs Rs 65.16 and Rs 62.69.

Fuel prices on March 11 were left unchanged, after six successive days of rate cuts. This, even as oil prices slipped by over 22 percent on March 9 after the failure of an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia on the subject of an output cut.

In the national capital, petrol and diesel are available at Rs 70.29 a litre and Rs 63.01 a litre respectively.

Meanwhile, a litre of petrol in Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata costs Rs 75.99, Rs 73.02 and Rs 72.98 as on March 11. Diesel prices in these cities are at Rs 65.97, Rs 66.48 and Rs 65.34 respectively.

In Bengaluru and Gurugram, petrol prices stood at Rs 72.70 per litre and Rs 70.76 per litre respectively while a litre of diesel costs Rs 65.16 and Rs 62.69.

FOREX-Dollar resumes decline; sterling rebounds after BoE rate cut

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 The U.S. dollar resumed its descent against the Japanese yen and Swiss franc on Wednesday as fears over the spreading coronavirus pushed investors into safe havens, while the British pound recovered after Bank of England unexpectedly cut interest rates.

Central banks and governments around the world are scrambling to limit the economic damage of the coronavirus outbreak, which has sent stock markets into a tailspin as investors head for the safety of government bonds.

Sterling initially fell as much as 0.4% against the dollar and 1.2% against the euro after the BoE's cut its benchmark rate by 50 basis points, to 0.25%. the pound rebounded as the move - including actions to support bank borrowing - reassured some investors. The pound rose to $1.2955 GBP=D3 , up 0.6% on the day.

Against the euro, the pound was last up 0.1% at 87.38 pence per euro. EURGBP=D3

Britain's finance minister, Rishi Sunak, is expected to direct further firepower at the British economy in his first budget later on Wednesday, expected at 1230 GMT.

The dollar was down particularly sharply against the safe-haven Japanese yen and Swiss franc. It lost 0.5% to 105.11 yen JPY= after earlier falling more than a full yen from Tuesday's high of 105.915.

The U.S. currency had fallen as low as 101.18 on Monday. While Japan may already be in recession, its currency usually rises at times of market stress because of the country's current account surplus and its net creditor status.

The Swiss franc gained 0.4% to 0.93595 franc per dollar CHF= . The euro also rose 0.4% to $1.13175 EUR= .

The dollar had jumped on Tuesday as investors hoped global monetary policymakers would offer further stimulus to offset trade and travel disruptions. But lack of clarity on what Washington will do has kept many investors on guard.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he would ask Congress for a payroll tax cut and other "very major" stimulus moves, but the details remain unclear. is too early to say the market sentiment has turned positive. Yesterday's rebound in the dollar and in risk assets is a type of a rebound you often see in a downtrend," said Shinji Ishimaru, senior currency analyst at MUFG Bank.

"In addition to economic measures, the focus will be on how much the U.S. can contain the infections to keep the economy going. That is a very big unknown," he said.

Money markets are fully pricing in a further 10-basis-point cut by the European Central Bank when it meets on Thursday. =ECBWATCH

The BoE rate cut follows similar moves by U.S. and Canadian central banks and put more pressure on the ECB to act, although it has limited room with rates already negative.

"The pound sold off initially on the aggressive move but the statement shows that their (BoE) action is co-ordinated with the Treasury and the measures include a package for lending," Jane Foley, senior currency strategist at Rabobank, said.

"Altogether the statement suggests lots of co-ordination. This is reassuring and should help limit the impact on the economy and that could also help support the pound."


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