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Events to watch this week
US equities set more records
Fed signals possible March rate hike
Trump supports US border tax
Le Pen gains in French polls
Greece open to reforms
The Week ahead:
US president Trump is scheduled to speak to Congress on Tuesday, 28 February
French GDP data are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, 28 February
Preliminary US fourth-quarter GDP data are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, 28 February
PMI Manufacturing Index data are released on Wednesday, 1 March
US initial jobless claims figures are released on Thursday, 2 March
US Federal Reserve chair Yellen is scheduled to speak on Friday, 3 March
For the week,US equities continued setting records this week — including 10 record daily closing highs in a row for the Dow Jones Industrial Average as of 23 February. Investors remain optimistic that US president Donald Trump will cut taxes, reduce regulation and implement a sweeping infrastructure spending program. The S&P 500 Index is up 5.3% year to date and has gained over 21% over the past 12 months. Market volatility increased slightly this week, but continued to remain relatively low. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell 2.9% this week to 2.34%, as of early Friday morning. Oil prices remained relatively unchanged this week.
NIFTY- 8,939.50
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,617barrel
GOLD-Rs 29,640 gram
Rs/$-Rs 66.83
MARKET ROUND UP
Key benchmark indices clocked decent gains in a truncated week ended Thursday, 23 February 2017, as record hitting streak on Wall Street helped the upmove. A surge in index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) and positive global stocks during the week also supported gains on the bourses.
The Sensex moved above the psychological 29,000 mark in intraday trade on Thursday, 23 February 2017. The market gained in all the four sessions of the week. Indian stock markets remain shut on Friday, 24 February 2017 on account of Mahashivratri.
The Sensex gained 424.22 points or 1.49% to settle at 28,892.97. The Nifty 50 index rose 117.80 points or 1.33% to end at 8,939.50.
The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.81%. The BSE Small-Cap index gained 0.89%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.
Macro Economic Front:
On the Economic Front,International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on 22 February 2017 that India's overall outlook remains positive, although growth will slow temporarily as a result of disruptions to consumption and business activity from the recent withdrawal of high-denomination banknotes from circulation. But the nation's expansion will pick up again as economic reforms kick in, said the IMF in its latest assessment. IMF reduced is growth forecasts to 6.6% for fiscal year 2016-17 and to 7.2% in 2017-18.
Challenges remain, however, and there is little scope for complacency. A key concern is the health of the banking system, which is still dealing with a large amount of bad loans, and also heightened corporate vulnerabilities in several key sectors of the economy.
Major Action &Announcement:
TCS gained 3.05%. TCS announced on 20 February 2017, that the board of directors of the company at a meeting held on 20 February 2017, approved a proposal to buyback up to 5.61 crore shares of the company for an aggregate amount not exceeding Rs 16000 crore, being 2.85% of the total paid up equity share capital, at Rs 2,850 per share.
Tata Motors rose 2.05%. Tata Motors said it is desirous of offering the sixth series of its rated, listed, unsecured, redeemable, non-convertible debentures (NCDs) aggregating to Rs 500 crore. In this regard, the company will hold a meeting of its duly constituted committee of the board on 2 March 2017. The announcement was made during trading hours on Thursday, 23 February 2017.
Maruti Suzuki India rose 0.72%. The company announced that its smart hybrid vehicles Ciaz SHVS and Ertiga SHVS have crossed cumulative sales of 1 lakh units in February 2017. This marks the success of Maruti Suzuki's efforts in hybrid and electric mobility in India. The announcement was made on 20 February 2017.
BhartiAirtel declined 0.93%. The company announced on 23 February 2017, that it has entered into a definitive agreement with Telenor South Asia Investments (Telenor) to acquire Telenor (India) Communications (Telenor India). The acquisition is subject to requisite regulatory approvals. As part of the agreement, Airtel will acquire Telenor India's running operations in seven circles - Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Gujarat, UP (East), UP (West) and Assam. These circles represent a high population concentration and therefore offer a high potential for growth.
Shares of Reliance Industries (RIL) surged 9.97%. RIL announced at the fag end of market hours on Tuesday, 21 February 2017, that its subsidiary Reliance JioInfocomm (RJIL) breached the 100 million customer mark in 170 days. Jio announced that in addition to its own market leading tariff plans, it will also offer its customers the option to choose the highest selling tariff plan of any of the other leading Indian telecom operators, but with 20% more data than what any other operator provides.
NTPC fell 2.54%. The stock was the top loser from the Sensex pack. The company said that the 115 megawatts (MW) out of 260 MW of Bhadla Solar Power Project of NTPC has been commissioned. With this, the installed capacity of NTPC's solar power projects has touched 475 MW. The total installed capacity of NTPC on standalone basis has become 41177 MW and that of NTPC group has become 48143 MW. The announcement was made on 22 February 2017.
Global Front:
In Overseas Markets,Asian markets made a mixed closing on Thursday, following their US counterparts after the Federal Open Market Committee released the minutes of its two-day meeting ended Feb. 1, where members believed it might be appropriate to lift U.S. interest-rates “fairly soon.” Chinese stocks slipped, with realty and construction-related stocks leading declines, after reports emerged that China's financial regulators are working on new rules to rein in asset management risks. Meanwhile, European stocks ping-ponged between small gains and losses, as investors sifted through earnings reports and assessed the mixed tone on U.S. interest rates from the Federal Reserve.
Global Economic News:
Fed signals potential March rate hike
In minutes released this week, US Federal Reserve officials signaled the potential for a rate hike at its next policy meeting in March. Citing potentially increased spending and reduced taxation under the Trump administration, the minutes suggest that the Fed may act more aggressively to keep a lid on inflation. The central bank increased the federal funds rate to between 0.5% and 0.75% in December and indicated then the potential for three quarter-percentage-point increases this year. Markets are expecting two rate hikes in 2017, and while odds of an increase have risen for March, they still remain low, at around 22%, according to data from CME.
Frexit fears rise on Le Pen's gains
While French presidential candidates François Fillon and Emmanuel Macron still hold commanding leads over Marine Le Pen in the upcoming elections, the right wing candidate has narrowed the gap, according to French polls released this week. Ms. Le Pen favors dropping out of the euro currency, and the markets aren't taking any chances. In reaction to the polls, the spread on French five-year government bonds rose to its highest level since the eurozone debt crisis. Trading volume for credit default swaps on French government debt also surged as spreads spiked. Credit default swaps are held by some investors for insurance against debt defaults. Rising CDS spread levels indicate that investors believe the chance of a default has increased.
Greece open to reforms
Greece agreed to legislate pension and other structural reforms this week, generating some optimism that negotiations on its bailout terms would resume after months of gridlock. Yields on Greek government debt fell to their lowest level in a month, although much work remains to be done.
GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS
Trump voices support for border tax
Donald Trump said this week that he supports a form of the proposed "border adjustment tax" (BAT), a tax on all imports. Trump suggested that such a tax would entice companies to relocate manufacturing operations to the United States, which would create more US jobs. Retail stocks have been pummeled in recent months over speculation that a border tax would be implemented. The retail industry imports most goods it sells in the US. J.C. Penney announced this week that it would close more than 100 stores, and rivals Kohl's and Macy's announced they would lease some of their retail space to other retailers in an effort to generate more revenue from real estate assets. Under the proposal, US export income would be tax free, which could benefit some energy companies, such as crude oil exporters.
NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):
BAJAJFINSV | 3900.30 |
BHARATFORG | 1094.00 |
BHARTIARTL | 400.65 |
NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):
MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:
JINDAL ST& PWR | 25.61 |
MARKSANS PHARMA | 22.41 |
JUST DIAL | 16.49 |
MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:
SJVN LTD | -6.14 |
MANAPPURAM FIN | -4.63 |
RALLIS iNDIA | -4.41 |
Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:
Monday (27 Feb)
Pending Home Sales Index
Tuesday (28 Feb)
Consumer Confidence
Wednesday (01 Mar)
PMI Manufacturing Index
Thursday (02 Mar)
Jobless Claims
Friday (03 Mar)
PMI Services Index
Fundamental Pick of the week:
Derivative Ideas
NIFTY futures added around 14.6% of open interest as long positions. It has rolled 49% into next series so far. Put writing was seen at 8900 and call writing was seen at 9000 strike. We suggest doing bull spread as per levels mentioned below.
Strategy:
BUY NIFTY 8900 CE AT 35 & SELL 9000 CE AT 6, NET PREMIUM PAID 29, SL 14, TARGET 80.
Indian Market Outlook:
Nifty futures traded with firm sentiments last week tracking bearish USD/INR futures prices and continue buying support from traders. It likely to trade with firm sentiments in current week as well on buying support at lower levels from traders. It witnessed strong buying support from traders and managed to hold the gains at higher levels at end of the week which indicates continuation of firm sentiments in current week as well. If it managed to sustain above 8900 level than it may witness firm sentiments till 9130 levels. Breaking of 8850 level with good volume will make Nifty bearish and down side may come due to selling pressure below that level. Overall trend for Nifty futures likely to remain positive for the week and may witness some profit booking at higher levels which may limit the upside in Nifty. Technically, It took good support of Fibonacci retracement levels which indicates continuation of firm sentiments. 8995 will be the Crucial level to watch out for in current week. Rise in volume and fall in open interest with firm price movement indicates resistance at higher levels in current week.
TECHNICAL VIEW:
S3 | S2 | S1 | NIFTY | R1 | R2 | R3 |
8,760 | 8,860 | 8,900 | 8,939.50 | 8,975 | 9,020 | 9,070 |
Nifty Spot View
Nifty traded with firm sentiments in last session due to buying support from traders. Next important support seen at 8870 level. Nifty likely to trade with sideways sentiments and 8910 at lower side will be the trend deciding level for intraday session. Higher side resistance seen at 8990 levels. However, some profit booking at higher levels may limit the upside in NIFTY. Applying momentum Indicator RSI for 14-day period trading at level of 71.63 indicates that it is trading in over bought zone and may face resistance at higher levels.
Bank Nifty Future View
Bank Nifty traded with firm sentiments due to buying support from traders. It likely to trade with sideways sentiments in Intraday session on profit booking at higher levels from traders. Bank Nifty has next resistance at 21150 levels while 20700 is the strong support for the same. If Bank Nifty trade firm then it may test next resistance of 21150 levels. Technically, Rise in volume and fall in open interest with volatile price movement indicates continuation of volatile sentiments in intraday session.
Conclusion:
High made was 8960 near our target of 8981 and closed above 8910 suggesting another attempt will be made to break the range of 8981 for next move towards 9050/9120. As the market moves higher traders need to tighter there SL, As per gann analysis only on close below 8827 the current uptrend will end, Till 8827 is held bulls will make merry and move towards the life highs of 9120. Trailing position is the best way to ride such strong trending market and not speculating when market will form a top. High made was 8982 near the gann angle resistance level, as we have been discussing in process doing our target of 8982 above 8910. Bulls should protect the level of 8847 now for the current trend to continue. Fresh long above 8990 for move towards 9060/9120.Bearish only below 8840 for a move towards 8757/8700/8672.