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EM ASIA FX-Most currencies weaken as pandemic panic boosts dollar appeal

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 Most Asian currencies fell against a firmer dollar on Friday, with the Indonesian rupiah and the South Korean won declining the most, as intensifying panic over the coronavirus outbreak sent investors scurrying into the world's reserve currency.

The dollar's appeal was also boosted by the Federal Reserve's move to inject $1.5 trillion in short-term liquidity and change the durations of Treasuries it buys to mitigate the coronavirus-induced economic stress. FRX/

"The overriding theme from the last 24 hours is that markets are hunting for U.S. dollars, and don't really care what rates they pay to get them," Jeffrey Halley, market analyst at OANDA, wrote in a note.

Reflecting the demand for the greenback, the benchmark U.S. Treasury yields US10YT=RR fell, he said.

In Asia, the Indonesian rupiah IDR= and the Korean won KRW=KFTC were the top losers as investors trimmed exposure to risky assets.

The rupiah, being one of the high-yielding emerging currencies, sees ample foreign investment, but risk aversion sparked by the coronavirus pandemic has caused the recent unwind, said Sim Moh Siong, a FX strategist at Bank of Singapore.

Indonesia has been among the most proactive countries to roll out measures to shield its economy and currency, with the central bank purchasing bonds for two consecutive days and the finance minister introducing a second stimulus package worth $8 billion. rupiah slid 2% to its lowest since November 2018, while the won, whose movement is closely linked to its stock market, hit a four-year trough.

The trade-sensitive won benefited when the United States and China signed an interim trade pact earlier this year before worries of a global recession weighed on investor sentiment and led to heavy equity capital outflows, Siong said.

Indonesian .JKSE and South Korean .KOSPI stocks also plunged, triggering circuit breakers.

The Thai baht THB=TH , the Taiwan dollar TWD=TP and the Malaysian ringgit MYR= weakened between 0.1% and 0.8%.

Among gainers were currencies of oil-importing India INR=IN and the Philippines PHP= , benefiting from an overnight drop in crude prices. O/R

Meanwhile, all Asian currencies were on track to post loss for the week during which oil prices crashed and global central banks and governments unveiled measures to contain the impact of the coronavirus.

CHINESE YUAN

The Chinese yuan CNY=CFXS strengthened 0.7% on Friday, and was on its way to mark its best session in more than a week.

Maybank analysts said a combination of strong virus containment measures, hopes for a recovery in the economy and a recent dive in U.S. rates enhanced the yuan's yield appeal, giving it a kind of immunity.

"Investors will be determined to look past the ugly data in the near term," they said.

Chinese stocks .SSEC have fallen less than their global counterparts in recent weeks as the spread of the virus has slowed and many factories have slowly resumed work. CNY/

The following table shows rates for Asian currencies against the dollar at 0620 GMT.

CURRENCIES VS U.S. DOLLAR

Currency

Latest bid Previous day Pct Move Japan yen

105.430

104.63

-0.76 Sing dlr

1.408

1.4110

+0.24 Taiwan dlr

30.180

30.150

-0.10 Korean won

1219.100

1206.5

-1.03 Baht

31.850

-0.78 Peso

51.040

51.31

+0.53 Rupiah

14810.000 14510

-2.03 Rupee

74.083

74.25

+0.23 Ringgit

4.280

-0.23 Yuan

6.982

7.0280

+0.67

Change so far in 2020

Currency

Latest bid End 2019

Pct Move Japan yen

105.430

108.61

+3.02 Sing dlr

1.408

1.3444

-4.49 Taiwan dlr

30.180

30.106

-0.25 Korean won

1219.100

1156.40

-5.14 Baht

31.850

29.91

-6.09 Peso

51.040

50.65

-0.76 Rupiah

14810.000 13880

-6.28 Rupee

74.083

71.38

-3.65 Ringgit

4.280

4.0890

-4.46 Yuan

6.982

6.9632

-0.26

($1 = 14,810.0000 rupiah)


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FOREX-Dollar gains from safe-haven scramble as virus rattles markets

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The dollar stood tall on Friday as investors scrambled for the world's most liquid currency amid deepening panic about the coronavirus, while the euro nursed losses after the European Central Bank disappointed by not cutting rates.

The greenback held gains against most currencies after a blowout in swap spreads showed investors are facing a shortage of dollars as equity markets plunged on fears about the global economic impact of the flu-like virus.

The ECB on Thursday unveiled a stimulus package that provides loans to banks with rates as low as -0.75% and increases bond purchases. Federal Reserve moved to provide $1.5 trillion in short-term liquidity and changed the durations of Treasuries it buys, but money markets show investors expect the Fed will have to go even further to restore calm to financial markets.

The government in Italy, which has become Europe's hot spot for coronavirus infections, has effectively put the entire country on lockdown to try to slow the virus.

Investors have so far expressed disappointment with the government response to rising infections in the United States, and traders warn there could be more disruptions in a broad range of financial markets.

"Risk off used to benefit the yen, but now we see that risk off is supporting the dollar," said Takuya Kanda, general manager of the research department at Gaitame.com Research Institute in Tokyo.

"We are in panic mode, because we don't know how far stocks will fall."

The euro EUR=EBS traded at $1.1202, following a 0.72% decline on Thursday in the wake of the ECB decision. For the week, the common currency was on course for a 0.7% decline.

Against the pound GBP=D3 , the dollar rose slightly to $1.2541 in Asia on Friday, which followed its biggest one-day gain against sterling since July 2016. The dollar was up 3.8% against sterling this week, its best performance since October 2016.

The greenback held gains against the Swiss franc CHF=EBS , trading at 0.9435, headed for a 0.7% weekly gain.

The ECB rolled out yet another stimulus package on Thursday to help fight the coronavirus pandemic but did not join its counterparts in the United States and Britain by cutting rates.

Investors, who had bet the ECB could cut rates at least 10 basis points and possibly more, were disappointed.

ECB President Christine Lagarde also aggravated a market selloff by saying it was not the central bank's job to close the spread between the borrowing costs of various members, comments which she later tried to roll back. are rushing to introduce travel bans, extra financial liquidity and monetary easing as the rapid spread of the virus across the world slams the brakes on the global economy.

The dollar rose 0.88% to 105.58 yen JPY=EBS on Friday, on course for a 0.2% weekly advance.

With signs of financial stress emerging across different markets, the New York Federal Reserve said it would make the money available in three tranches of $500 billion each and that it would start purchasing a broader range of U.S. Treasury securities.

The Fed meets next week and many analysts now expect the central bank to chop its own target policy rate, quite possibly to zero, and give markets new guidance about how it plans to combat the economic fallout from the coronavirus.

The Bank of Japan, which will announce a policy decision next week Thursday after the Fed, announced the unscheduled purchase of 200 billion yen ($1.90 billion) in government debt on Friday. It also said it would inject an additional 1.5 trillion yen in two-week lending in a sign of concern that liquidity could dry up. basis swap spreads for the yen JPYCBS3M= and the pound GBPCBS3M=ICAP blew out in what traders say is a sign of a dollar shortage.

Highlighting the sense of crisis, senior officials from the Group of Seven talked on Thursday and confirmed they will cooperate closely as equities tumble and corporate bond spreads widen. Canadian dollar CAD=D3 rose slightly to C$1.3894 against the greenback, pulling back from a four-year low.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's wife has tested positive for the coronavirus, his office said. Trudeau is not showing any symptoms but will stay in isolation for 14 days, according to his office. Australian AUD=D3 and New Zealand dollars NZD=D3 managed to bounce more than half a percent against the greenback in Asian trade. The antipodeans were mauled on Thursday as investors shunned riskier currencies that are linked to the global commodities trade.

The Reserve Bank of Australia also injected an unusually large amount of cash into the financial system on Friday as panic spread. ($1 = 105.0200 yen)


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Oil market set for record surplus amid coronavirus-led demand slump

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The US banking giant, Goldman Sachs, said in a recent note, the oil market would be swooning in record supply by April amid coronavirus led slump in demand and a bigger-than-expected surge in low-cost output.

 Key quotes

“Oil market could see a record surplus of about 6 million barrels per day by April.

The high-cost producer response at our second quarter 2020 $30/bbl Brent forecast will not be sufficiently fast to offset the record large inventory builds set to occur in coming months.

The jump in inventories could also force some inland high-cost producers to shut production, since storage logistics may be stretched.

The demand loss is due to the fast-spreading coronavirus outbreak at about 4.5 million bpd.

The accumulation of oil inventories over the next six months could be similar to a build up over 18 months in 2014-16.

Global demand growth, on the other hand, would see a reduction of about 310,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 and comfortably offset any fast supply response from high cost producers, especially with the shale output now forecast to drop by 900,000 bpd in the first quarter of 2021.

Finally, any potential re-escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East would not prevent the bearish pressure of quickly accumulating inventories unless it led to a historically large outage.”


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