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Contracting for the fourth straight month, India's exports declined by 12.41 per cent to $21.91 billion in June mainly due to drop in shipments of petroleum, textiles, engineering goods, and gems and jewellery items. Imports too plunged 47.59 per cent to $21.11 billion in June, leaving a trade surplus of $0.79 billion, compared to a deficit of $15.28 billion in the same month of the last year, according to the data released by the Commerce and Industry Ministry on Wednesday.

During April-June 2020, exports fell by 36.71 per cent to $51.32 billion, while imports shrank by 52.43 per cent to $60.44 billion.

The trade deficit stood at $9.12 billion during the two months of the current fiscal.

Oil imports dipped 55.29 per cent to $4.93 billion in June. Gold imports in June plunged by 77.42 per cent to $608.7 million.

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• Upside appears more compelling amid a potential bull flag.  
• A test of 3250 likely as buyers cheer vaccine hopes.
• 3191 is the level to beat for the bears in the near-term.

Having faced rejection below Monday’s high in Asia, S&P 500 futures, the risk barometer, holds sizeable gains to battle 3200 levels amid broad market optimism, courtesy of Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine progress.

The price has entered a phase of consolidation since then, which has now taken the form of a bullish flag on the hourly chart. This is a bullish continuation pattern and an hourly close above the falling trendline resistance at 3210 will confirm the formation.

The bulls will likely target Monday’s high at 3226 en route the psychological level of 3250 in the near-term.

Alternatively, the immediate downside will be limited by the falling trendline support at 3197, below which the bullish 21-hourly Simple Moving Average (HMA), now placed at 3,191, will test the bears’ commitment.

The next support awaits at the 50-HMA of 3180, which could offer some temporary respite to the bulls.

All in all, the path of least resistance appears to the upside, with bullish hourly Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58.81.

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China's economy will continue to recover, with limited COVID-19 effect on its sovereign credit, The Paper reported, citing global credit rating agency Moody's.

Compared with countries with the same rating level, China's government debt will maintain at a medium level, Moody's said at an online seminar held on Tuesday.

Global economy is resuming vitality slowly, and the road to recovery is likely to be prolonged and winding, according to Moody's.

The agency predicted developed economies in the G20 would see their GDP shrink by 6.4 percent this year, and rebound to 4.8 percent in 2021, while emerging economies in the G20 would contract by 1.6 percent this year, then rebound to 5.9 percent in 2021.

Although some countries saw signs of recovery, economic downward risks still remained, the rating agency said, adding the epidemic is likely to come again in the second half of this year.

If so, it could lead to further lockdowns, making it more difficult for governments to help and roll out support measures. Meanwhile, longer or repeated shutdowns could drive up the number of enterprise closures, as well as the unemployment rate.

Most countries' real output in 2021 will be lower than the level before the epidemic, Moody's said.

The credit rating agency said the epidemic will change global credit trends. Developed economies will face heavier debt burden due to slow economic growth and weaker financial capacity.

Due to the epidemic, countries have realized that they should raise the safety of supply chains and reduce dependence on single suppliers.

And the global trade pattern will hence become more scattered, while the reorganization of supply chains will be shorter and more diversified, Moody's said. "Though it could be healthier, however it could also lead to low efficiency and high inventory," it added.China's economy will continue to recover, with limited COVID-19 effect on its sovereign credit, The Paper reported, citing global credit rating agency Moody's.

Compared with countries with the same rating level, China's government debt will maintain at a medium level, Moody's said at an online seminar held on Tuesday.

Global economy is resuming vitality slowly, and the road to recovery is likely to be prolonged and winding, according to Moody's.

The agency predicted developed economies in the G20 would see their GDP shrink by 6.4 percent this year, and rebound to 4.8 percent in 2021, while emerging economies in the G20 would contract by 1.6 percent this year, then rebound to 5.9 percent in 2021.

Although some countries saw signs of recovery, economic downward risks still remained, the rating agency said, adding the epidemic is likely to come again in the second half of this year.

If so, it could lead to further lockdowns, making it more difficult for governments to help and roll out support measures. Meanwhile, longer or repeated shutdowns could drive up the number of enterprise closures, as well as the unemployment rate.

Most countries' real output in 2021 will be lower than the level before the epidemic, Moody's said.

The credit rating agency said the epidemic will change global credit trends. Developed economies will face heavier debt burden due to slow economic growth and weaker financial capacity.

Due to the epidemic, countries have realized that they should raise the safety of supply chains and reduce dependence on single suppliers.

And the global trade pattern will hence become more scattered, while the reorganization of supply chains will be shorter and more diversified, Moody's said. "Though it could be healthier, however it could also lead to low efficiency and high inventory," it added.

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The euro has been in demand in early European trade Wednesday, hitting a four-month high after Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard hinted at a need for an even easier monetary policy in the U.S.

The dollar also suffered more broadly from a rise in risk appetite after positive test data for one of the lead candidates for a Covid-19 vaccine late, published late on Tuesday.

At 2:55 AM ET (0655 GMT), EUR/USD gained 0.1% to 1.1408, after reaching its highest level since March 10 at $1.1423 earlier in the session. EUR/GBP dropped 0.2% to 0.9060, with sterling helped by stronger than expected inflation figures in June, but the euro had posted a two-week high of 0.9112 late Tuesday.

Additionally, the dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was down 0.1% at 96.093, GBP/USD gained 0.4% to 1.2595 and USD/JPY was flat at 107.23. 

The single currency has benefited of late--it’s up 1.3% against the dollar over the last month--from the perception that the region has handled the Covid-19 crisis better than most.

"Germany, France and Italy have all taken severe lockdown steps and as a result the coronavirus now appears to be under control. The economy could be gradually recovering," said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo Branch manager of State Street (NYSE:STT) Bank and Trust, to Reuters.

The economic picture still is grim, however. Only last week, the European Commission downgraded its outlook for the EU economy, saying it would now contract by 8.3% in 2020. However, recent confidence data have tended upward, with Tuesday’s German ZEW survey pointing to continued optimism over the next six months.

Looking ahead, “the forthcoming ECB meeting should not change much, with the discussion/progress on an EU Recovery Fund being a more important short-term driver for the EUR/USD,” said analysts at ING, in a research note.

There still remain doubts about whether the EU leaders will reach agreement on a 750-billion-euro pandemic recovery fund at this week's summit, amid resistance from more frugal member states.

That said, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who now holds the presidency of the EU Council, was in no doubt of the need of the fund and the importance of its size.

"Because the task is enormous, the answer must also be huge," she said Monday, after hosting Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte for talks.

"It must be particularly powerful in order to signal clearly that Europe wants to hold together in this difficult time. There is a political dimension to it".

Any potential progress on the recovery fund at the EU summit “should translate into support for EUR/USD for the remainder of the week, with the ECB meeting playing second fiddle,” ING added.

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 The dollar was down on Wednesday morning in Asia, with investors continuing the previous session’s retreat from the safe-haven asset as data released on Tuesday indicated increased U.S. inflation.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) posted a 0.6% increase month-on-month, its highest in almost eight years. The figure beat analyst forecasts prepared by Investing.com, which predicted a 0.5% increase as well as May’s 0.1% decrease.

The data eased investor fears of deflationary pressures on the U.S. economy from the COVID-19 economic downturn.

Meanwhile, investors also cheered Tuesday’s report that U.S. biotech firm Moderna 's (NASDAQ:MRNA) experimental COVID-19 vaccine is safe and generated immune responses in all 45 volunteers who are part of the ongoing study.

The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies fell 0.11% to 96.073 by 9:50 PM ET (2:50 AM GMT).

The USD/JPY pair was up 0.01% to 107.23. The Bank of Japan is due to release its policy statement later in the day, with monetary policies widely expected to remain unchanged.

The USD/CNY pair was down 0.09% to 7.0000. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he has issued the order to end Hong Kong’s preferential trade status. Trump also signed legislation sanctioning Chinese entities involved with enacting the city’s national security laws.

The AUD/USD pair gained 0.49% to 0.7008 and the NZD/USD pair was up 0.32% to 0.6561. The two risk-sensitive Antipodean currencies benefitted from improved investor sentiment.

The GBP/USD pair gained 0.28% to 1.2584.

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The euro rose to a four-month high against the dollar on Wednesday on hopes European Union leaders may agree on stimulus and deepening fiscal integration to shield the economy from the pandemic.

The dollar was on the defensive, particularly against other growth-leveraged currencies such as the Australian dollar, following an uptick in U.S. inflation and news of progress in vaccine development for COVID-19.

The euro rose to $1.1400 (EUR=), after reaching its highest level since March 10 at $1.1423 earlier in the trade.

Against the yen, the common currency hit one-month high of 122.47 (EURJPY=) while it had scaled a two-week high of $0.91125 British pound the previous day and last stood at 90.690 pence (EURGBP=D4).

"Germany, France and Italy have all taken severe lockdown steps and as a result the coronavirus now appears to be under control. The economy could be gradually recovering," said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo Branch manager of State Street (NYSE:STT) Bank and Trust.

The euro has been helped by hopes the European Union could agree at its summit later this week on a rescue financing package that will limit the economic damage to the bloc from the coronavirus pandemic.

The euro's strength helped to push the dollar index (=USD) to one-month low at 96.056. The index last stood at 96.225.

The dollar extended losses on Tuesday after U.S. consumer prices rebounded 0.6% month-on-month, the most in nearly eight years, in June, easing worries about deflationary pressures from the economic downturn.

Further boosting investors' risk appetite, Moderna Inc's (O:MRNA) experimental vaccine for COVID-19 showed it was safe and provoked immune responses in all 45 healthy volunteers in an ongoing early-stage study, U.S. researchers reported on Tuesday.

Against that backdrop, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar rose 0.24% to $0.6992 .

Sterling, however, underperformed after data showed Britain's economy was recovering more slowly than forecast.

Gross domestic product rose by 1.8% in May after falling by a record 20.8% in April, well below forecasts in a Reuters poll.

The pound last traded at $1.2567 .

The yen stood at 107.28 yen per dollar , little changed after the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy steady and maintained its stance that the economy would gradually recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The market has so far taken the latest heightening in U.S.-China tensions in its stride.

President Donald Trump signed legislation and an executive order to hold China "accountable" for the national security law it imposed on Hong Kong.

Trump also signed a bill approved by the Congress to penalise banks doing business with Chinese officials who implement the new security law.

In response, the Chinese foreign ministry said on Wednesday it will impose retaliatory sanctions on U.S. individuals and entities.

"While there are increasing doubts on whether Hong Kong will remain an open market, investors think this is a very long-term issue," said Ayako Sera, senior market economist at Sumitomo Mitsui (NYSE:SMFG) Trust Bank.

Diplomatic battles between the two big powers have intensified on several other fronts, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, military operations in the South China Sea and trade.

The onshore yuan ticked up 0.05% to 7.0040 per dollar

The Canadian dollar bounced back from a two-week low, changing hands at C$1.3604 per U.S. dollar , despite the prospect of travel restrictions between Canada and the United States being extended.

The Canadian central bank is expected to leave rates on hold at a policy announcement on Wednesday, with investors likely to focus on the bank's outlook for the economy and potential guidance on its bond-buying program.

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