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Events to watch this week

  • US stocks reach new high
  • ECB extends quantitative easing another year
  • Renzi resigns in wake of Italy referendum
  • Austria elects establishment candidate
  • China's imports and exports on the rise

The Week ahead:

  • China's industrial production and retail sales data are released on Monday, 12 December 12
  • The Federal Open Market Committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, 14–15 December
  • The eurozone's industrial production figures are released on Wednesday, 14 December
  • US business inventory, retail sales and industrial production data are released on Wednesday, 14 December
  • US Consumer Price Index, NAHB housing market index and jobless claims data are released on Thursday, 15 December

For the week,Global equities recorded solid gains this week, as major US indices set fresh records and European stocks posted their best week since February. The S&P 500 Index gained 2.75% through Thursday and about 4.05% for the month, setting a new all-time high. Oil prices slid slightly this week, with West Texas Intermediate crude falling 58 cents a barrel to $51.10 and global Brent dropping 46 cents a barrel, to $54.01, as of early Friday morning. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note increased 8 basis points week over week, trading at 2.46% Friday, and was about 55 basis points higher than it was on November 8, Election Day in the US.

NIFTY- 8,261.75
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,471barrel
GOLD-Rs 27,585/10 gram
Rs/$-Rs 67.42


Indian equity markets registered strong gains in the week ended Friday, 9 December 2016, inline with the sentiments in global markets. Barring a single trading session on Wednesday, 7 December 2016, the two key benchmark indices viz. the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty 50 index, landed in green in four out of five trading sessions. The indices bucked positive trend in the post-noon session on Wednesday on the heels of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) decision to keep key interest rates steady.

The Sensex surged 516.52 points or 1.96% to settle at 26,747.18. The Nifty jumped 174.95 points or 2.16% to settle at 8,261.75. The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 2.75%. It outperformed the Sensex. The BSE Small-Cap index advanced 1.96%, matching the Sensex's gains in percentage terms.

Macro Economic Front:

On the Economic Front,Data released by Markit Economics during the week showed that India's services sector activity declined sharply last month as cash shortages hit the sector in the wake of the government's move to demonetise higher denomination notes. The seasonally adjusted headline Nikkei India Services Business Activity Index dropped to 46.70 in November, from 54.50 in October, registering contraction for the first time since June 2015 and pointed to the sharpest reduction in output for almost three years.

Major Action &Announcement:

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) was up 3.96%. The company announced that IT will be undertaking scheduled maintenance shutdown at some of its automotive and tractor plants in December 2016. The announcement was made after market hours on Thursday, 8 December 2016.

Tata Motors surged 7.16%. The company said that Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), the UK's leading manufacturer of premium luxury vehicles, reported its best ever November retail sales. JLR reported 2% rise in total sales to 47,588 vehicles in November 2016 over November 2015. The announcement was made during market hours on Thursday, 8 December 2016.

Cipla advanced 1.38%. The company said it received final approval for its abbreviated new drug application (ANDA) for Entecavir Tablets USP 0.5 mg and 1 mg, from the United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA). The announcement was made during market hours on Thursday, 8 December 2016.

Dr Reddy's Laboratories (DRL) rose 0.21%. The company during market hours on Monday, 5 December 2016, announced that it has launched Nystatin and Triamcinolone Acetonide Cream, USP in the US market, approved by the US drug regulator, US Food & Drug Administration (USFDA).

Lupin advanced 1.81%. The company announced that Lupin Somerset also known as Novel Laboratories, Inc received final approval for its Hydrocodone Bitartrate and Acetaminophen Tablets, USP, 5mg/325mg, 7.5 mg/325 mg and 10 mg/325 mg from the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to market a generic equivalent of Allergan Sales LLC's Norco Tablets 5 mg/325 mg, 7.5 mg/325 mg and 10 mg/325 mg. The announcement was made after market hours on Monday, 5 December 2016.

Tata Steel jumped 5.88%. Tata Steel UK on Wednesday, 7 December 2016, reached an agreement with trade unions on a number of proposals that would structurally reduce risks and help secure a more sustainable future for its UK business.

Separately, Tata Steel also announced that its subsidiary, TM International Logistics (TMILL) has divested entire stake in its wholly owned step down subsidiary TM Harbour Services (TMHSPL) to Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) for a total consideration of Rs 106 crore in an all cash deal.

BhartiAirtel rose 3.22%. The company on Thursday, 8 December 2016, launched two new bundled packs for its prepaid customers with free voice calling and substantial data benefits. These two packs add to Airtel's wide bouquet of innovative packs and plans for customers, offering them more flexibility. The announcement was made during market hours on Thursday, 8 December 2016.

Power Grid Corporation of India (PGCIL) was up 0.38%. The company announced that a meeting of committee of directors for bonds is planned to be held on 14 December 2016 to consider issue of secured, redeemable, non-convertible, non-cumulative, taxable bonds (debenture) under private placement. The announcement was made after market hours on Thursday, 8 December 2016.

Global Front:

In Overseas Markets,the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday, 8 December 2016, pledged to continue with its programme of money printing to shore up the euro zone recovery but surprised financial markets by reducing the amount of stimulus it expects to provide each month.

ECB left interest rates unchanged and said it would continue its programme of quantitative easing (QE) to next December or beyond if necessary. But the central bank said it would reduce its monthly asset buys to 60 billion euros as of April, from the current 80 billion euros. It, however, said it reserved the right to increase the size of purchases again.

Global Economic News:

Global stocks continued to post strong gains this week as investors moved out of defensive asset classes, taking on more risk. The strongest pockets of the US market since the election have been materials, industrials, energy, financials and technology. Meanwhile, high-yield bond sector spreads remained compressed, with most sectors sitting at 52-week lows, indicating that investors are still seeking yield opportunities. Emerging market bond spreads also shrank this week, while US investment-grade bond spreads narrowed as well, albeit slightly. Yields on municipal bonds also fell this week, indicating a reversal of a recent selloff in the asset class.

ECB will continue QE through 2017
The European Central Bank announced that it would extend its quantitative easing program until December 2017, although it reduced its monthly purchases to €60 billion from €80 billion. The ECB tweaked its rules to allow the purchase of bonds yielding less than its -0.4% deposit rate. Markets were mixed on the news. Longer-dated German government bond yields increased, while shorter-term German yields fell. The euro declined about 1.39% against the US dollar.

Italians reject constitutional reform
Italian voters rejected a referendum on constitutional reform early last week, prompting Prime Minister MatteoRenzi to resign. The  result continues the anti-establishment trend in the United States and Europe. Renzi agreed to remain in office until the Italian Senate passes a 2017 budget. Moody's cut Italy's sovereign rating outlook to negative from stable after the vote. The outlook change means the credit rating agency could downgrade Italian debt if current conditions remain the same. The country's debt is currently rated two notches above junk status. Shares of Italian banks fell after the vote. The Italian government is preparing to take a €2 billion controlling stake in the bank Monte deiPaschi, whose shares fell 15% on the week.

Austrian voters buck anti-establishment trend
Austrian voters elected pro-European candidate Alexander Van der Bellen as president this week, bucking the anti-establishment mood in the European Union. Van der Bellen won a close contest in May, but voting irregularities forced the week's runoff election.

China's exports rise
China's trade data surprised analysts to the upside this week as imports and exports both increased sharply in November. Exports rose 0.1 % year over year, reversing a 7.3% decline recorded in October, while imports grew 6.7%, the fastest pace since 2014. The growth in imports suggests stronger domestic demand while the rise in exports indicates that global demand has also strengthened. Despite these increases, however, China's imports and exports remained negative for the year through November. The yuan has fallen about 3% versus the US dollar since October, while China's foreign exchange reserves fell to their lowest level since March 2011. China's reserves fell $69 billion in November, which was its fifth straight monthly decline.






























Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:

Monday (12 Dec)
Treasury Budget
Tuesday(13 Dec)
FOMC Meeting Begins & NFIB Small Business

Wednesday(14 Dec)
Retail Sales & FOMC Forecasts
Thursday(15 Dec)
Consumer Price Index &Jobless Claims
Friday(16 Dec)
Housing Sarts

Fundamental Pick of the week:

Buy biocon Ltd For Target Rs. 28.00


BIOCON added around 11% of open interest as long positions along with some delivery based buying in previous session. It has also witnessed breakout from ‘Inverted Head & Shoulder’ pattern on daily charts. We recommend doing a bull spread as per levels given below.


BUY BIOCON 940 CE AT 27-28 & SELL 980 CE AT 12-13, SPREAD AT 15, SL 9, TARGET 28.

Indian Market Outlook:

This week markets witnessed one of the historic events in the Indian Economy where after the Demonetization, markets were keenly expecting a minimum of 25 bps rate cut. But, to surprise all, Mr. Urjit Patel kept the RBI's stance unchanged shocking the markets on Wednesday. Nifty made a low of 8095 post RBI policy, just 20 points short of its Monday's low of 8075.

Monday through Wednesday, Nifty rose by 142 points and fell sharply by 122 points post RBI. However, markets have regained their strength and rose by 200 points from its Wednesday's low of 8095 to make a high 8295. This upside rally was contributed by strong fundamentals of the Indian economy accompanied with strong International markets.


















Nifty gave multiple Long entry on Monday and Wednesday  and did the 3 target on upside our 3 target was 8280, High made was 8275  so disciplined Chopad Followers were rewarded again by Market.  Lets analyze how to trade nifty in coming week as we have Fed policy  outcome  on 14 Dec. Now for coming week 8091 will play crucial role above which again a move towards 8175/8250.  Bearish below 8031 for 7900.


Tomorrow will be very crucial as mostly we should see a trending move, Bulls above 8130 again will move towards 8200/8250, Bears below 8100 will see move towards 8056/8011. Nifty opened above 8130 made low of 8150 and did both target of 8200/8250 High made was 8256 . Thats the beauty of gann price and time analysis it gives you an extra edge, As I have been discussing Bulls need a close above 8250, as we have weekly closing tomorrow close above 8250 will be big booster for Bulls.Close above 8250 target 8330/8370/8444. Unable to close above it another move towards 8200/8153. Bulls finally were able to close above 8250 and sustaining above it nifty should move towards 8330/8370/8444. Any close below 8250 bears will get upper hand and push nifty towards 8181/8150/8097. Expect good trending move in next 2 trading days.